3SOF

ALL OF YOU GUYS STILL HOLDING ??

THE CHART SHOWS IT HAS ROOM TO GO TO $11

Quote from: REALDEALS21 on March 23, 2007, 08:16:39 PM
ALL OF YOU GUYS STILL HOLDING ??

THE CHART SHOWS IT HAS ROOM TO GO TO $11

===TokyoPUA looks wistfully at rising three methods candlesticks pattern and wallows in self pity for having sold at 7.8===

Any of you guys look at the other shares for this stock...ASTIW and ASTIZ...they have been running up even more (percentage wise) over the last week or so.

Anyone have any thoughts on the short term potential for those two symbols?

Thoughts on where ASTIZ and ASTIW will go next week. Theyve run up a lot thus far but they dont look to be slowing down yet.

NEWS just came out.............

Press Release   Source: Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc.

US Air Force Increases Research Contract Award Value to Ascent Solar Technologies' High-temperature Substrate Program
Tuesday March 27, 2:05 pm ET

LITTLETON, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. ("Ascent Solar") (NASDAQ:ASTI - News; BSE:AKC - News) announced today that it has been granted a contract modification from the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to continue development of flexible high-temperature substrates for monolithically integrated CIGS photovoltaics. This program originated at ITN Energy Systems, Inc. (ITN) and was novated, or transferred, to Ascent Solar in January 2007. The contract modification adds an additional $607,365 of funded contract value to the original contract of $925,283 and extends the period of performance to March 2009.

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Ascent Solar was formed in October 2005 by ITN to commercialize certain thin film photovoltaic technology for space, near-space, and terrestrial applications that had been developed under internal and government funding. AFRL has sponsored a significant portion of the development of the flexible CIGS photovoltaics with the ITN/Ascent Solar team for space and near-space applications, including the development of a flexible high-temperature material upon which CIGS can be deposited. The ability to deposit the CIGS material onto a flexible substrate that can withstand higher process temperatures than existing materials can lead to higher device performance.

Ascent Solar Chief Technical Officer Dr. Joseph Armstrong stated "Completing the modification to our AFRL contract provides additional funds for development of a suitable high-temperature CIGS substrate. Depositing at a higher temperature than is possible with our baseline plastic substrates can lead to higher performance that is required for space and near-space applications. We have already demonstrated efficiencies of nearly 14% in the space environment with high-temperature substrates, which is equivalent to well over 15% for terrestrial applications, and we believe that further performance improvement is possible. In addition, the fabrication process used in these high-performance cells is directly related to our existing prototype monolithically integrated manufacturing operations, and will be compatible with our manufacturing line presently under construction."

Its back !

up

up

For those of you still interested:

InPlay: Ascent Solar wins high efficiency solar cell program
Briefing.com (Wed 6:11am)

6:11AM Ascent Solar wins high efficiency solar cell program (ASTI) 8.77 : Co announces that it has been selected by the U.S. Air Force to develop an innovative flexible thin film tandem solar cell with the goal of demonstrating thin film photovoltaic efficiencies of 20%.

http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#asti

Here we go ASTI looks very much like it wants to test all time highs.   

ASTI up big on news and now at an all-time high

Unfortunately I bought and sold this last week...due to a margin call so I don't own it anymore


ITTLETON, Colo. (AP) -- Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. and Hydro Building Systems, a division of Norsk Hydro ASA, said Tuesday they plan to develop a new brise soleil product line with thin film flexible solar modules made by Ascent Solar.

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Ascent Solar shares surged 97 cents, or 10 percent, to $10.67 in morning trading. The company's stock has traded between $2.01 and $11.34 during the past 52 weeks. Norsk Hydro shares gained 16 cents to $40.69.

In architecture, a brise soleil is a sun-shading device designed to protect a building from the effects of sunlight. The companies said shading devices which incorporate solar photovoltaics provide opportunities to limit overheating in buildings, reducing the need for air conditioning systems, while converting the sun's energy into electricity to provide power to the building.

The companies plan to introduce a variety of designs and prototypes for the new product line in November 2007.

Hydro Building Systems said the company has dedicated a new division to focus on the smart integration of the Ascent Solar solutions into its product portfolio, which includes windows, doors, sliders, curtain walls and roof lights.

The division plans to start selling solar products beginning in 2008.

this is up huge, on huge volume....great job guys....anyone shorting now? 

I read this thread all over again and understand what happened, why I missed a 100% or so gain in ASTI shares and even got out with a 11.8% loss

It was that I was still somewhat short term oriented, not really thrusting completely my fundamental analysis or visions of the future. Also some of you guys didn't like the pick, because it didn't follow the valuation model's method.

Today, while I was in the shower I thought it would be almost impossible to grab a ten bagger by studying the existing fundamentals. Let me try to explain. For example, JAKK and NGA are undervalued, that is, they're trading at a discount when compared to their industry peers. Say, they have a 50% discount, which means they need to go up by 100% to be fairly valued. This is how much one can expect from this type of analysis, and there's the risk of something going wrong, that is, the stock being traded at a discount for a good reason.

I guess that to own a 10 bagger over, say, a 5 years period one needs to be somewhat of a visionary. Whether it is an industry which is very hot (the internet in the mid nineties), or a company that has a big competitive edge (ex: Microsoft in the early nineties), somehow the stock decouples from fundamentals and only later do they catch up.

It's no secret that alternative energy has been growing and will play a very meaningful part of our future. This isn't just about the $84 oil. It is about oil production going down, even as the price rises, simply because oil is a scarce commodity which has an end. There's a peak oil theory which basically says worldwide discoveries of oil are going down sharply and that in a few years there won't be anymore oil on Earth. The Middle East countries effort to diversify their economies probably has something to do with this, they know oil will end sooner than expected. Another hint that this theory is right is that even though oil has been going up so much, oil companies still trade in the single digit earnings multiple. The market sees the price going up, but production going down over the long term, so not necessarily the profits will expand. And the long term future for big oil companies is bleak.

So, I believe in alternative energy. I know stocks in this space are trading at stratospheric multiples, but that's for a good reason. But one has to be careful and not buy poorly financed companies, like micro caps and OTCBB traded stocks, because many of these are in the alternative energy space just because it is where the hot money stands right now. Those companies just want our money for management to keep their well paid jobs.

ASTI is different. In June 30, 2007, it showed $34.6 M in cash and short term investments in its balance sheet. Then, on August 16th, 2007, Norsdk Hydro invested another $10.48 M in ASTI. And from the class B public warrants conversion (there are 6,580,788 class B warrants, convertible at $11) I see ASTI receiving another $72.4 M

This brings the total cash pile to $117.5 M. More than enough to build all the factories and other initiatives they need. The fact that probably Norsdk Hydro (NHY), a $53 B market cap company, is about to own 35% of ASTI (after the class B warrants conversion, they already own 23%) also adds to the long term safety of this investment. The company itself has a lot of cash and NHY has very deep pockets. This is too big to fail. 

We've covered the risk of ASTI being a flop or a scheme, which is very low. Now let's consider the potential of the investment.

As you can see from reading ASTI's website, the company makes thin film flexible solar modules, which can be used as a construction material in buildings and houses. The idea is to build energy sufficient and low energy cost buildings, with the walls and roofs of the buildings capturing the energy from the sun light.

This is going to be possible, and not that far off, because of NHY's help. The following was the press release which made the stock blowout the $11 extremely important resistance level:

• Ascent Solar and Hydro Building Systems to Launch Brise Soleil Product Line
Business Wire (Tue, Sep 18)

«The dedicated focus of the HBS solar solutions is underlined by their intention to start selling solar products beginning in 2008. The initial results of this work will be displayed in September 2007 during the HYDRO Summit to all internal shareholders."»

«Ascent Solar Business Development Vice President Joseph McCabe stated "By exploiting our material's unique ability to conform into Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) products become an, Ascent Solar is opening many new opportunities for solar applications when compared to more traditional roof-top or solar farm installations. BIPV products become integral part of the building structure rather than an additional bolt-on attachment. This not only reduces the installation cost but provides additional surface area to generate more power. The beauty in the flexible thin film materials is that we can address both the traditional PV market applications and create entirely new markets where traditional rigid frame PV cannot even play."»

With the money that was already invested in ASTI, the technology they have and NHY's help, I see ASTI's potential future becoming a reality. And how much do you think a company like this can be worth, say, 5 years from now? $1 B? $2.5 B? $5 B?

I don't know, but my bet goes to at least $2.5 B. This means more than a 1,000% return from where it is now. This would mean a 63% share price CAGR over five years.

But it's going to take a lot of patience and strong hands to hold the stock for this long, because there will always be setbacks, either technical or fundamental. But this time I'm prepared to hold the stock for the long term, for as long as my vision stands valid.

And we never know if alternative energy doesn't evolve into a bubble mania, when people realize oil will end sooner rather than later. That could bring the expected return earlier, but of course, it would be followed by a destructive corrective process, pretty much like it happened with the dot.com mania. These things are always happening in the stock market because it's always different players doing it, and the public doesn't know stock market history.

But at this point, even though I already left 2 bags of profits on the table (by not buying before NHY's investment (I didn't even know the company back then, so it doesn't count), and then for not holding on to it - that was a shame), I still see 10 bags over the next five years or so for ASTI.

The Trading Plan is:

Buy 6.66% of capital in ASTI for the long term.

David, I like you more when you frankly admit your mistake. But thats how I learn and improve. Goodluck this time.   

Good one David 

But you could get it for less around $11.85   .. or you can do the same thing you did with POCC , buy 50% and wait for a bull back to buy the rest ...