VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Melf Elf]

Melf,

I need a glossary to understand the Japanese TA terms. 

Scott,

lol.  I do, too.

Are you going to play?

Only very short-term.  I don't like all of those breaks of support on the daily chart.

If so, what are you looking for in order to jump in?

I liked this morning's selloff to the 15.44-15.79 support area that we discussed this morning.
We had an Ascending Triangle pattern breakout today at 16.45 that measures to about 17.30, so my stop now is below 16.22, the 11.25AM low, prior to the breakout above 16.45.

Math:

16.45 (Top of Ascending Triangle) - 15.60 (Morning low) = 0.85 Points

16.45 (Breakout) + 0.85 = Target: 17.30 IN PLAY

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:VPHM&Interval=5&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Scott, I got your message asking about CPHD, and I'm responding here to apologize to you and the rest of the community, but I'm getting inundated with requests to analyze individual issues, and I simply don't have the time to give them the analysis that they deserve.  I hope that you and everyone else will understand, and I'll try to participate at 3SOF on an "as can" basis.  Thanks!

[Melf Elf]

VPHM is currently forming a 2 week declining wedge (possible reversal formation). Since VPHM is already down 30% from its highs of 24 and change, probability favors a recovery as opposed to further selling in its "oversold" condition.

Calven,

Great charts, especially catching that Declining Wedge.  Applause.  Best I can tell, it looks like the high of 17.29 at 12:48PM tagged the top of the pattern just about exactly. 

[brandyjoco]

Does a successful declining wedge mean that it will turn bullish now?

[calven]

The declining wedge is a coil pattern for pending volatility and possible change in direction (reversal). What I am basically saying is that whichever trendline is broken the stock will likely move quickly in that direction....

Please read this link. This should explain the "falling wedge"  better than I ever could : http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/fallingwedge.htm

Pivot long: 17.45
Pivot short: 15.35

I am basically saying, I think its time for a bounce (reversal)  but I need confirmation first...(hence - a breakout from the falling wedge)



Here is one theory I came up with after the first big drop from 22-18. Many people asked me where I thought VPHM was going. I told them there was "more pain left" from the 18.00 level . I was obviously disagreed with and called crazy by many individuals. Even received emails on my bearish sentiment from 18.00. People were telling me "this is a great time to buy" "buy on this dip, 18 now 21 in a week"!. Needless to say these individuals didnt listen to what I had to say (why ask then?) and sufferred another $2.25 -3.00 drop...to 15.60 (15.50 close enough) depending on how high they bought. Now you may ask how I arrived at 15.50? Its very simple....

VPHM failed to hit the top trendline on it's last upwave to 24. It should have hit 26.00 if it were trading a perfect channel. Being that it missed the top trendline by 2.00 I suspected it would move below the bottom trendline(17.50) by 2.00. This a basic hypothesis I came up with using the theory of "measured moves" and wave impulses. This would put new support at 15.00-15.50 depending on your exact spot of the LT support line... Coincidence?

[calven]

Brandyjoco,

Just so you understand what I'm talking about...This is an example of a declining wedge breakout. (NVAX - before and after chart)

[brandyjoco]

Great Hypothesis.  Do you think it will re-test the lower trendline again?

[Melf Elf]

I got a SMITE in this folder this afernoon.  

It obviously wasn't for my assessment before the open:

I'm thinking a bounce somewhere between 15.44-15.79, which I'll explain below, but like you, I'm also thinking that it won't hold.

Today's low in VPHM was 15.60, right in the middle of the range.

And, the SMITE obviously wasn't for this:

I liked this morning's selloff to the 15.44-15.79 support area that we discussed this morning.
We had an Ascending Triangle pattern breakout today at 16.45 that measures to about 17.30, so my stop now is below 16.22, the 11.25AM low, prior to the breakout above 16.45.

Math:

16.45 (Top of Ascending Triangle) - 15.60 (Morning low) = 0.85 Points

16.45 (Breakout) + 0.85 = Target: 17.30 IN PLAY

Today's high in VPHM was 17.29.

I'm left to conclude that the SMITE was for this:

...I'm responding here to apologize to you and the rest of the community, but I'm getting inundated with requests to analyze individual issues, and I simply don't have the time to give them the analysis that they deserve. I hope that you and everyone else will understand, and I'll try to participate at 3SOF on an "as can" basis. Thanks!

Whoever would SMITE me about that has to be joking.  

SMITE?

Geez, I've posted TONS of charts and TONS of analysis over the past 5 months, and my APPLAUSE rating is barely 1 point per day.  If I were looking for APPLAUSE, I feel sure that I could find alot more somewhere else, and so could the rest of you, whose APPLAUSE ratings are more ridiculous than mine.

Look at Calven's rating of 33, I think; I gave him 2 applauds today.  He's been posting here as long as I have.  Geez...he sure isn't here for the APPLAUSE, or he'd be long-g-g-g gone!

Believe me, if I had more time, I would be more than happy to spend the half hour to an hour that it takes me to post my analysis on these charts, but I simply don't have that much time.   Nor does David.

Even GOD doesn't have that much time to look at ALL of these charts.  

I primarily post here to share, to help, and to enjoy the sense of 3SOF that most of you have been so wonderful in helping to create.  I post here because it feels safe from touters and bashers, helpful, and supportive.

Like othes, I couldn't care less about my APPLAUSE rating, or I would be screaming and bitching that it's only 155.  Well, it was, 155, until I got the SMITE.  lol.

I  do care that anyone would SMITE me, just for being a human being who has limited time, like everyone else.  I care that anyone would SMITE me, like they did this summer in the BRVO folder, just because I didn't agree that BRVO was a buy at that time, over $1.00.  

Enough said,  but if I get very much more of this SMITING nonsense, I'm not going to waste my valuable time here.  

My VALUABLE TIME is much more important to me than any APPLAUSE rating.

Final word: I've also got a "stalker," who wants to prove how inferior I am to him.  I'm not going to put up with a whole lot more of that nonsense either.

[brandyjoco]

Melf Elf:  I don't know what an applause or smite is but I would give you an APPLAUSE!  I don't know what I would do without the technical help that Caven and you have given me!!!  I bet the smite was a mistake....

[bocasva]

Melf Elf,

I want to express my appreaciation for all the hard work you do for this board.  I've followed your posts ever since I became a member back in June and know you are top of the line when it comes to TA.  I applaud you even though I actually cannot do it thru the system because of my rating.
Thank you again, Melf Elf.

[KCScott]

Another applaud for Melf and one for Calvern as well.

I think it will come back to test $15.60 range which I will target as an entry point.

I'll put in a 5% stop at $ 14.82, good for the day only

This is not for the feint of heart as it's a long way down if that get's broken.

[KCScott]

2 Factors in play right now, may cause me to up my buying target:

1. Options expiration Friday

2. VPHM being added to the Naz Bio Pharm index Monday

It looks like it is supporting 16.80-17 range pretty well, I may wait till late day to pull the trigger.

Thoughts?

[calven]

The "declining wedge" was definately broken today, but one factor is missed on that breakout...volume!

Volume sucks today, thereofore the validity of the breakout is very low....

[[D] Investor]

I didn't find any recent VPHM threads, so I am going to start this one solely for VPHM. No NVAX, GNBT, or other stocks claimed to be "another VPHM"... just good ol' VPHM.

VPHM IS a hot stock with awesome fundamentals and pipeline drugs with high potentials.

On November 10, VPHM tanked...its first large tank... after a really, really long uptrend starting from single digits. Why? Because on SPECULATIONS that a generic drug may be a competitor of Vancocin. Read it here.

And VPHM is going to be added to the NASDAQ Biotech Index on Monday. Read the news here.

Does this mean a reversal and bull run for VPHM? Probably not if one looks solely at technical analysis and the charts, but hey, TA and charts aren't everything and certainly cannot predict the effects of news (good or bad) as we've seen what the speculation news had done to VPHM.

Here's the breakdown of VPHM's good and bad at this moment...

Good news:

• VPHM has grown to a company so full in potential that it's being recognized by a major market index!
• Joining biotech index usually causes bull hype, sending stocks up the next one or two market days (at least)... potentially good for some quick daytrade/short swing gains.
• After hours activity is bullish... up $0.263 or 1.57% to $17.05.

Bad news:

• After VPHM's recent plummet, it's chart looks really ugly and uncertain. No clear signs of reversal yet.
• RSI is really low... still oversold
• MACD sharply plummeting
• I-Watch volume and price charts still show consolidation this week (heavy buy and sell volume; not one or the other (see attachment)
• I-Watch volume and price charts are really ugly today with a lot of overselling (see attachment)

But do not get me wrong, I am still bullish on VPHM for the long term and I will continue to monitor this stock and attempt to add positions when it resumes its uptrend.

My 2 cents but what does the 3SOF community think about VPHM? 

[calven]

Please use the SEARCH option on the top of this page. VPHM already has an active 28 page thread....

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.405

[[D] Investor]

Yes...active but posted in many other threads that were created for OTHER stocks.