VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Lucas Scott]

Melf, not only was that $7.69 bogus, so was the $9.92 close. Looks like ~9.08 was the true close.

btw I covered my short early on at $8.83.

[la-onda]

Morningstar reiterated its 5 star rating of VPHM today. It gives it a
fair value of $17 (and a "consider sell" at $20.60). This is what
analyst Karen Anderson wrote today:

"We're maintaining our fair value estimate at $17 per share and model
a recovery in Vancocin sales in future quarters this year. We believe
that the market is confusing the current temporary wholesaler
inventory drawdowns with the threat of generic competition, which we
estimate is still at least two years away.
Our fair value estimate has been affected by both positive and
negative company news. Maribavir, a drug to treat cytomegalovirus in
transplant patients, had impressive results in recent clinical trials,
and we have boosted the drug's probability of approval to 60% as
ViroPharma prepares to begin Phase III trials."

updated chart:

[Melf Elf]

Melf, not only was that $7.69 bogus, so was the $9.92 close. Looks like ~9.08 was the true close.

Luke,

That's about right.  The close of the 3:59PM bar was 9.05.  After 9.92 printed at the close, the quote was BID 9.03...ASK 9.04. 

There's also another bad tick around 11:40AM, at 8.05, on the intraday chart.  VPHM never traded that low. I don't understand in this technical age how those mistakes aren't caught, at least the mistakes on both the open and the close.  Especially in a stock that was so heavily traded.  Didn't somebody notice that there's something wrong with this chart?

 

I downloaded my end of day data from Reuters. They have the low at 7.69 and the close at 9.92, both of which are incorrect, but I guess it will stand.  It will be interesting to see where they open VPHM this morning.

[la-onda]

analyst update


VPHM: Infinium Ups to Outperform from Neutral; Cuts Tgt to $11 vs $15; Analyst Notes
Friday , May 05, 2006 08:48 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm:  Infinium Capital
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Outperform (from Neutral)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $11.00 (-26.67% from $15.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their upgrade.
This rating information was reported by Infinium Group.

&

from the Piper Jaffray analyst report issued this morning...

KEY POINTS:

* Lower-Than-Expected Vancocin Sales Due To Inventory Destocking " But Not
Just A Simple Drawdown. VPHM reported 1Q06 Vancocin revenues of $29.2m,
well below our estimate of $40.6m and Street estimates of $40.2m. This
discrepancy was related to a significant reduction in wholesaler inventory
levels, and what is particularly troubling in this case is that the
magnitude of the reduction could not have been possible given previous
inventory estimates provided by management (i.e., a potential
overestimation of end-user demand). VPHM believes that they underestimated
the number of weeks of inventory in 4Q05 by 2-3 weeks. They now estimate
that there were 6-7 weeks at the end of 4Q05, with a reduction in levels
to approximately 2-3 weeks at the end of 1Q06. The company also noted that
there was likely a further drawdown of inventory in the first two weeks of
April, but that recent ordering patterns have realigned with growth
patterns in IMS data.
* Do We Really Know What Demand For Vancocin Has Been? The gross
miscalculation in inventory levels brings the underlying demand for
Vancocin over the last 5 quarters into question. VPHM provided two
possible explanations for the miscalculation in inventory levels: 1) there
may have been higher-than-expected inventory levels at the time VPHM
acquired Vancocin from Lilly, although we believe that this is likely the
smaller effect, if at all relevant; and 2) overestimation of data in
regards to the number of pills/Rx. While the company has avoided the
possibility that actual prescription growth reported by IMS is inaccurate,
we remain uncertain and believe that direct inventory data may be
necessary to fully explain historical Vancocin demand. In the company's
defense, many data sources confirm the increase in C. difficile-associated
disease (CDAD) incidence and severity. In fact, an article in a recent
major medical journal estimating the quarterly incidence of CDAD in over
100 U.S. hospitals reported that median rates of CDAD increased
significantly from roughly 6 cases per 1000 admissions in 2004 to 7.9-8.4
cases per 1000 admissions in 1H05, generally in the ballpark of the growth
in prescriptions observed during that time period in IMS data.
* Changes To Estimates. We await further data from reported sales and/or
inventory level updates from VPHM to clarify the underlying demand for
Vancocin.
In the interim, we are conservatively moving our estimates
toward the low end of the company's revenue guidance range. Under this
scenario, our price target moves from $13 (methodology based on a sum of
the parts analysis attributing $7 for Vancocin, $2 for cash, and $3.50 for
pipeline) to $12 ($6 for Vancocin, $2 for cash, and $3.50 for the
pipeline), although we note a lower degree of confidence in our new
Vancocin sales estimates. With uncertainty on both the generic situation
and the underlying demand for Vancocin, we remain on the sidelines with
VPHM.

&

RESEARCH ALERT-WBB Securites initiates ViroPharma with "sell"


Reuters 11:59 am May 5, 2006

BOSTON, May 5 (Reuters) - WBB Securities LLC initiated coverage of
ViroPharma Inc. with a "sell" recommendation on Friday after the
company reported lower than expected earnings.
The biotechnology company on Thursday posted earnings substantially
below analysts' expectations, saying wholesalers had reduced their
stocks of its antibiotic Vancocin.
"ViroPharma didn't see that new orders were lagging projected demand
until March of this year," said WBB analyst Stephen Brozak. "This
kind of uncertainty about basic business measures, which drive
projections for everything from raw materials to staffing, points to
a problematic situation."

[Melf Elf]

That's about right.  The close of the 3:59PM bar was 9.05.  After 9.92 printed at the close, the quote was BID 9.03...ASK 9.04. 

I downloaded my end of day data from Reuters. They have the low at 7.69 and the close at 9.92, both of which are incorrect, but I guess it will stand. 

Reuters has taken down Thursday's bogus close of 9.92 and now shows the close as 9.05, and the high on Thursday as 9.46.  The 7.69 low still stands, but I also think that was inaccurate.

analyst update

Oliver,

Thanks for posting those.  Applause.  Interesting read, particularly Piper's comment:

"* Do We Really Know What Demand For Vancocin Has Been? The gross
miscalculation in inventory levels brings the underlying demand for
Vancocin over the last 5 quarters into question."

[la-onda]

another analyst:

RESEARCH ALERT-WBB Securites initiates ViroPharma with "sell"
9:52a ET May 5, 2006 (Reuters) BOSTON, May 5 (Reuters) - WBB
Securities LLC initiated coverage of ViroPharma Inc. with a "sell"
recommendation on Friday after the company reported lower than
expected earnings.
The biotechnology company on Thursday posted earnings substantially
below analysts' expectations, saying wholesalers had reduced their
stocks of its antibiotic Vancocin.
"ViroPharma didn't see that new orders were lagging projected demand
until March of this year," said WBB analyst Stephen Brozak. "This
kind of uncertainty about basic business measures, which drive
projections for everything from raw materials to staffing, points to
a problematic situation."

but please check the link:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/recomnd.asp?Symbol=US%3aVPHM

please check also:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p61161061606&a=76231351&listNum=1

what would be a TA support for VPHM?

TIA
Oliver

[Melf Elf]

what would be a TA support for VPHM?

Oliver,

Roughly, $3.50 is next chart support.

Important 9.70 - 9.74 was broken on a weekly closing basis, so VPHM will have to tell us over the next weeks and months if support is going to be anything higher than 3.50 by establishing a base/pattern, then breaking out to the upside.

The six-month rally last year (May-November) from 1.67 to 24.36 (1,358%) was parabolic in nature.  The only pullback to speak of was the pullback in August, to 9.74.

After the St. Paddy's Day Massacre this year, VPHM found support at 9.70 and put in a Bullish Doji Star Hammer on the weekly chart (below).  That produced only a one week rally to 13.20, then the stock faded and took out the key 9.70 - 9.74 support on earnings last week.

Stocks that rally parabolically are at risk for a "Parabolic Return" to the origin of the rally because there was no base buliding along the way.  There's no obvious area of "horizontal support" below here until we go all the way back to the late Autumn, 2004 - Spring, 2005 time-frame, the high of which was 3.52.

[la-onda]

Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: ViroPharma, Equity Office Properties, General Mills and Dollar Financial Corp.
Monday , May 08, 2006 06:00 ET

CHICAGO, May 08, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Zacks Equity Research highlights ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM) as the Bull of the Day and Equity Office Properties (NYSE:EOP) as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on General Mills (NYSE:GIS) and Dollar Financial Corp. (Nasdaq:DLLR). Full analysis of all four stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676.

Here is a synopsis of all four stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Our Bull of the Day recommendation is for ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM). ViroPharma is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of products that address diseases caused by infectious agents such as a virus or pathogenic bacteria. The company has one approved product, Vancocin Capsules, for the treatment of antibiotic-associated infection, and two mid-stage candidates for viral infections. The stock has been extremely volatile over the past few months. The stock went from over-hyped to under-valued in the course of a few months all based on issues surrounding Vancocin. Our price target is $16 per share.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.965c77cdfbbd0f2073a9d02ec3bfe2efe71ffa2d3b672b12dffacfcb11c90fce

[la-onda]

rom: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 8, 2006  5:35 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions are out of this world!!!!    irc203
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
Invite to Yahoo! 360º Invite to Yahoo! 360º
from: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 8, 2006  5:35 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions are out of this world!!!!


We have a new record for weekly prescriptions! For the week ended
4/28/06, prescriptions totaled 2,552.  Prescriptions for the prior
week totaled 2,311.

A big rebound from the Easter holiday.  (Jan, you
will need to rescale your charts agsin.)

The wholesalers must be ordering from VPHM like crazy. They certainly
no longer have it in stock!

[calven]

I love VPHM but I just cant see anything happening in the near term without any significant news releases...

So many fresh bagholders that are pissed off and want to sell out of VPHM after the drop....VPHM will need to either release news to eat up their shares or VPHM will need time to "process" the bagholders.

I see 12.30-12.40 as huge resistance - I could be wrong but we can at least agree to disagree.

cal 

I still dont like this one at 9.80. This stock reminds me a lot of DORAL (DRL)

Everyone says "BUY its at book value, its undervalued" etc etc etc

"DONT FADE RED or BLACK ON THE ROULETTE WHEEL!!!!!"

Huge downward momentum and no capitulation yet....too much risk yet to justify taking a position here. JHMO

Possible fill of that small gap and bagholder at 11.00 - hate to upset people but Id rather post the blunt truth...

[Lucas Scott]

What a bunch of idjits! I'd have been betting red. You stay with the streak. There's a sportsbet handicapper on the radio during football season who always goes with the streaks. For example, if Michgan has covered the spread in 4 straight home games, he bets on Michigan to cover the spread again in the 5th home game. The way he puts it, when you bet on the side of the streak "you can be right several times and only wrong once."

[la-onda]

Zack Analysis (9 slides) 

[la-onda]

updated chart from alimovstock
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p47102911837&a=76593257&listNum=1


insiders have bought some shares:
http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=vphm


Oliver

[la-onda]

new updated chart from alimovstock:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p47102911837&a=76593257&listNum=1

VPHM shareholder letter:
http://ccbn.mobular.net/ccbn/7/1433/1574/

[la-onda]

From: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 15, 2006  3:21 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescription Numbers!!!    irc203
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
Invite to Yahoo! 360º Invite to Yahoo! 360º

Weekly Prescriptions totaled 2,490 for the week ended 5/6/06. The
prior week was an all time high of 2,552. 2,490 is a great number, not
a new record, but the second highest number on record. The trend is
your friend.