ASTI

[David Randolph]

ASTI was doing well in the morning, with volume above average, but the late day sell off in the general market took ASTI down to a close below the $15.75 "key" support level. However, I believe we're near the lows of this consolidation phase and the next move will be up, not down. I see ASTI closing 2007 above $20 ... anyway, I see it closing above $100 if one waits and holds it for three years, so ... no doubts I'll keep on holding ASTI for the long term.

[David Randolph]

ASTI's very high open on Friday didn't help the stock building bullish momentum. But with $oil closing at a new all time high on Friday I'm pretty sure the focus of investors will go back to alternative energy stocks, and in that group I believe ASTI has the best long term prospects.

«Hydro Building Systems Development Director Werner Jager stated "Due to the successful pre-project between Hydro Building Systems (HBS) and Ascent Solar, HBS has decided to proceed further in the integration and installation of the PV modules provided by Ascent Solar. To accelerate this process HBS has dedicated a new division to focus on the smart integration of the Ascent Solar solutions into their product portfolio (e.g. windows, doors, sliders, curtain walls, roof lights). The dedicated focus of the HBS solar solutions is underlined by their intention to start selling solar products beginning in 2008. The initial results of this work will be displayed in September 2007 during the HYDRO Summit to all internal shareholders."

HBS will use the BATIMAT exhibition in Paris to display these innovate BIPV solutions to the commercial construction industry. The BATIMAT exhibition is the premier European venue for the construction and building industry. The event will take place from November 5-11, 2007.»

Probably in November 5-11 we'll get a press release with photos of the new NHY's products using ASTI's technology.

I'll continue holding ASTI for the long term.

[David Randolph]

The news I was expecting just came out, Norsdk Hydro (NHY) now owns 35% of ASTI:

Form  SC13

[mbaugh]

David, someone on the Yahoo board posted that NHY can't aquire the remaining shares until December of 2007.  See the link below.  I'm confused by today's filing.  Did NHY already take control of the shares or are they implying that they intend to soon?

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070313/asti8-k.html

[David Randolph]

David, someone on the Yahoo board posted that NHY can't aquire the remaining shares until December of 2007.  See the link below.  I'm confused by today's filing.  Did NHY already take control of the shares or are they implying that they intend to soon?

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070313/asti8-k.html

Yeah, that man is right, NHY still didn't acquire the remaining 12 pp to get to a 35% stake:

«Therefore, each of Norsk Hydro and Produksjon beneficially own, as of the date hereof, 4,696,428 Shares, which, assuming the exercise by Produksjon of the Tranche 2 Call Option to acquire 2,161,966 Tranche 2 Shares in addition to the 2,534,462 Shares acquired by Produksjon on the First Closing and the Initial Warrants Closing, would represent 35.0% of the Company's issued and outstanding Shares immediately after such sale and purchase.»

[mbaugh]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but what does today's filing mean?  Reading it sounds like NHY owns 35% of the shares, but then you have the old filing which says they can't until Dec. 2007.  Was today's filing a requirement before they aquire the remaining shares?  In other words, what the heck happened today?  Seems the float is drying up since the spread is getting wider between the bid and ask.

[David Randolph]

Was today's filing a requirement before they aquire the remaining shares?

Yeah, I think that even though they still don't own the shares, they're telling the market they're about to own 35% of ASTI. If you're a potential investor in ASTI (I mean, a big institution, for example), you need to know that someone has an agreement to have a 35% stake, even though it currently owns just 23%.

Anyway, I think it is pretty much a given that NHY will indeed increase its stake to 35% in December 2007. The market is responding positively to the information, with ASTI currently up 3.1%.

[mbaugh]

David, this filing may explain why ASTI 's price was falling during the past week.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0000950138%2D07%2D000801%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2007%5C10%5C15%5C&CoName=ASCENT+SOLAR+TECHNOLOGIES%2C+INC%2E&FormType=SC+13G%2FA&RcvdDate=10%2F15%2F2007&pdf=

Hopefully the selling is done and ASTI will move up.  Today's candlestick looks to show a reversal in trend.

[David Randolph]

David, this filing may explain why ASTI 's price was falling during the past week.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0000950138%2D07%2D000801%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2007%5C10%5C15%5C&CoName=ASCENT+SOLAR+TECHNOLOGIES%2C+INC%2E&FormType=SC+13G%2FA&RcvdDate=10%2F15%2F2007&pdf=

Hopefully the selling is done and ASTI will move up.  Today's candlestick looks to show a reversal in trend.

Yes, it is a good explanation, those two weak hands selling

Thinking more of the long term, it is interesting to note at ASTI's website that the company's technology is intended to be not only better, but cheaper too. NHY agrees with this assessment.

As I look at FSLR, worth $9.9 B, TSL worth $1.2 B and JASO worth $2.3 B, they seem to be all doing a thing of the past ... ASTI, worth $158 M holds the key to our future. We just need patience for all this to materialize ... ASTI has the potential to be not a 10 bagger, but a 100 bagger, if we give the company 10 years time.

I'll continue holding ASTI for the very long term.

[David Randolph]

ASTI is up about 1% today ... these higher openings don't help the stock building short term momentum.

Fundamentally, as I look to one of the solar leaders, FSLR, it trades at 228 times 2007 estimated earnings and 26 times revenues. It already looked expensive before tripling (something to think about).

ASTI will probably sport a similar valuation when it starts selling and profiting for real, and it will start big in 2009, because it has NHY's distribution capacity.

I'll continue holding ASTI for the long term.

[David Randolph]

ASTI was just waiting for the daily update before shooting higher

Up 6% now.

[berloga]

I only now got funds available for this investment... Unfortunately, there is price to pay. I got in at $17.30... At 22% higher than David. Hm. This better go up now, since I'll be weeping to see it go down to $14, if it does...

[trexkerry]

David, what I think could really shoot up the solar stocks (well the undervalued ones since the high fliers already have rich valuations) is that the US Congress is considering removing the cap on the federal income tax credit currently available for residential solar installations. 

Currently, a 30% tax credit, up to $2,000, is available for installing a system.  This is after all state rebates (I am thinking of putting in a solar PV system and the system itself costs $30,000, California will rebate me $7,000 and the Federal tax credit makes the system cost for me $21,000).  What could make this sector explode and make solar available to so many more would be if the cap were eliminated.  The same system would then cost me the same $23,000 before federal tax credits of $6900  making my cost $16,100.  This is for an average sized system, a smaller system could be had for closer to $10,000-$12,000, and a really large system would benefit even more as you would get massive tax credits for your system.  With the immediate increase in property value, it becomes fairly obvious that if you can have 50% of your system paid for by the government you have found great deal.  Of course the bill may pass and remove any credit to residential projects effectively killing solar growth among US households.  Anyways, here is an article from a solar lobbying group discussing the bill in Congress.  They will probably decide this thing before the end of the year.  I am hoping they remove the tax credit cap so I can get a system!
http://www.solar-nation.org/

[David Randolph]

I only now got funds available for this investment... Unfortunately, there is price to pay. I got in at $17.30... At 22% higher than David. Hm. This better go up now, since I'll be weeping to see it go down to $14, if it does...

I don't think it will berloga, the low for this move was made at $14.76 and the bull trend is resuming now. I believe we'll make a new high, probably above $20, on the bullish leg that started yesterday, even though the general market doesn't seem to be able to provide much help over the short term.

David, what I think could really shoot up the solar stocks (well the undervalued ones since the high fliers already have rich valuations) is that the US Congress is considering removing the cap on the federal income tax credit currently available for residential solar installations.

Yes, that would be good news and thanks for the information trexkerry

There's another stock which could benefit more than ASTI from that change, which I've covered a while back on La-Onda's request, which one was it, let me see ... oh yes, it was AKNS:

AKNS analysis

Unfortunately my opinion on the stock wasn't positive.

ASTI, even though it is in the solar energy group, is somewhat different. I don't think you'll be able to buy a system from ASTI for your house, at least not in the next few years. It is more about new buildings, energy sufficient and clean buildings, which will operate potentially just using solar energy.

Imagine that you could buy a condo apartment and know that it is an environmentally friendly building, and that you'll never have to pay an electricity bill. The value added to that apartment will be quite significant. I think NHY's idea is going more in this direction. It could be used for industrial buildings too. Possibilities are endless.

By investing in ASTI's shares we're being a part of this future. The only thing we need to do is keep holding the shares with strong hands. That's what I'll keep doing, regardless of the short term swings.

[jorgegr]

Today's news on ASTI

Press Release   Source: Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc.
Ascent Solar Updates SEC Filings to Transition From Form SB-2 to Streamlined Form S-3
Thursday October 18, 5:07 pm ET
LITTLETON, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc., announced today that the company has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission post-effective amendments to two existing Form SB-2 registration statements that cover, among other things, the shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of outstanding Class B warrants. Today's filings do not register additional securities for sale by Ascent Solar, but are intended solely to convert the existing registrations on Form SB-2 into less burdensome and less costly registrations on Form S-3.
The post-effective amendment filings will temporarily impact the ability of warrant holders to exercise Class B warrants because until the SEC declares the filings effective, Ascent Solar may not issue any shares upon exercise of the Class B warrants. The ability to trade the Class B warrants on Nasdaq should not be impacted by the filings. Ascent Solar will announce when the post-effective amendments are declared effective and exercise of the Class B warrants may resume. Matthew Foster, President and Chief Executive Officer of Ascent Solar, noted: "While today's filings may temporarily inconvenience holders of our Class B warrants, we have determined that it is in the best interests of Ascent Solar to convert the existing 'long form' registrations on Form SB-2 into 'short form' registrations on Form S-3, resulting in significant cost savings in the future." Today's filings replace a Form S-3 registration statement filed by Ascent Solar on September 4, 2007 and that has now been withdrawn. The intent of that Form S-3 registration statement was to achieve the same result as the post-effective amendments filed today.