Wolfwaves
By: Calven
Several common forms of channel patterns exist which can aid in predicting trend reversals and price action. However, few channel patterns exist which give more powerful trading signals than Wolfwaves & Gartleys.
The Wolfwave is a natural pattern found in all of today's markets. Its basic shape represents a struggle for balance between supply and demand in effort to reach equilibrium. This naturally occurring pattern was not invented but discovered as a means to predicting levels of supply and demand. The pattern itself is very versatile in terms of time length. Wolfwaves occur in a wide range of time frames such as minutes or even as long as weeks or months. The pattern is very accurate in predicting future price ceilings and bottoms when identified correctly. When correctly identified Wolfwaves are quite possibly the most effective trading technique in existence today.
The overriding factor in identifying the Wolfwave pattern is symmetry. As show below, the most accurate patterns exist where waves 1-3-5 have equal timing intervals between wave cycles.
Figure 1: Bullish Wolfwave Pattern
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1162&stc=1)
Figure 2: Bearish Wolfwave Pattern
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1163&stc=1)
Key Ingredients:
• Waves 3-4 must stay within the channel created by 1-2
• 1-2 = 3-4 (Symmetry)
• Wave 4 revisits the established channel of points1-2
• Regular timing intervals
• Waves 3 & 5 are usually 127% or 162% extensions of the previous point
Found In:
• Rising channels in an uptrend
• Falling channels in a downtrend
• Level channels during consolidation periods
Notice that point 5 shown on the diagram above is a move slightly above or below the channel created by waves 1-2 & 3-4. This move is usually a false breakout or breakdown of the original channel and is the best place to enter a stock long or short. The false action at point 5 occurs most of the time in the pattern but isn't absolutely necessary. Point 6 is the target level from point 5 and is the most profitable part of the Wolfwave channel pattern. The target price (Point 6) is found by connecting points 1 and 4.
Here are a few examples of the pattern at work. Remember, Point 5 is an opportunity to take action with a short or long position while Point 6 is the target price.
To reinstate a key point that was touched on earlier. The reason this channeling technique is considered advanced lies in the difficulty of identifying the Wolfwave pattern itself. The hardest part of the pattern is identification. Determining the target price (point 6) is given for you. If the Wolfwave pattern is correctly identified, risk is cut substantially while profit potential is high.
In attempting to learn any trading strategy be sure to paper trade potential Wolfwave setups to gain experience and confidence before putting money behind the setup. Also remember to use stops in order to lessen risk when going live.
Bullish Example
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=764&stc=1)
Bearish Example
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=765&stc=1)
Questions?
Email me at:
[email protected]
BF - BASF GROUP
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=937&stc=1)
Notice anything attractive about this chart? Seems like BF is moving up. How would you trade this chart? Before scrolling down, see if you can figure out which direction BF is headed...where would you buy?
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=929&stc=1)
If you saw a WW in this chart you are exactly right...
Now that you have identified the points, connect points 1 & 4 and you have your buy target.
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=930&stc=1)
Action after point 5 validates the WW. Get ready to trade...
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=931&stc=1)
Approaching buy target...
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=932&stc=1)
BINGO!
Now the retrace back to the previous channel line (sell target)
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=933&stc=1)
Perfect hit!
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=934&stc=1)
Back to the previous WW line for another entry!
Waiting for another sell target. 73 or the bottom previous channel trendline look good.
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=935&stc=1)
(Ongoing post -to be continued)
Why walk with bulls - run with the wolves!
WMT also approaching a key WW sell target...
COMPX has recently formed a WW. It has successfully hit its target (1-4)
I will be loading up on gold stocks after Thanksgiving....for a one week hold. Could be a short term sell off in the COMPX to set up for the holiday rally... >:D
(http://forum.chartsetups.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=18&stc=1)
wowww, very nice!!!
<applaud>
Update to BF ....
Limit Sell set to: $ 74.50
I think BF will move just past the resistance line as momentum carries it...
I went through several ,,head scratching" rituals to comprehend the dynamic inherent in that logic. Very very impressing thought process, indeed!
I didn't believe in this pattern the first time I saw it either... I thought it was a typical theory with no proof. Then I began noticing the pattern appearing more and more as I looked at charts. Over the years I began testing the pattern and found it to work quite frequently. As I researched and used trial and error I became better at correctly identifying the pattern. Soon the WW was working nearly every time. Probably the result of identifying the pattern more correcly.
I don't expect everyone here to accept it at first site or by my tutorial. I just ask that you give it a chance and even "paper trade" the pattern. I think you will be suprised.
-cal
Applaud Calven. Fantastic Tutorial.. Belongs in a book somewhere's so it doesn't get misplaced .
Wow pretty good! However, I still don't understand... :o
If the Nasdaq is at point 6 then where does it go from here - down? If so, how far down....????
I am not good at these sort of things and must have read it 10 times by now....
I put alot back into cash because I did not like how the stocks were acting today.
I applaud you calven for sharing you're trading system. I'll be watching for the wolfwave and use you're post as a guide. We're starting to get some good trading tips on this site that should help us all to become better traders.
Goodluck trading :)
Hey calven,
First Thankyou for introducing us to wolfwave.Can you please look at this chart and see if this qualifies .Thanks
Symbol SNDK
QuoteSorry that pattern (SNDK) won't work. It doesnt follow the symmetry rule. Although you do understand the concept 1-4 though. Make sure the stock you are looking at looks EXACTLY like the diagram I drew. If it doesnt look like that then it isnt a wolfwave. Always remember, these patterns are rare but extremely tradable when identified correctly.
I clearly misidentified SNDK with my comments above. It was in fact a WW - I apologize for my error in analysis. I have created a chart showing the correct WW trendlines and have made a formal apology to "akclide"...As for the COMPX...yes it is at point 6. I do think i will head down from point 6. Since point 5 is the "buy" point and point 6 is the "sell" point I assume the pattern accounts for bearishness at point 6....hence the reason for it to be the "objective" target.
As you will read from my first post on the COMPX ww I am calling for a short term sell off from point 6. I believe today's drop is the first drop from point 6....
cal
Hi calven
Would you call this a wolfwave pattern. I don't have charting membership or software so I'm not able to draw the line and write on them.
Nope, Im sorry but I dont see a WW pattern there either...
Beautiful!!!!! >:D
(before and after charts)
Calven,
I just posted a couple WWs in the strategic orientation section - also saw the WW n the COMPX - saw another one in the longer term chart, but having read your thread, am now not sure it holds up to the symmetry rule - what do you think? Possible longer term target? If so, things are about to get real bearish!!!
Yes saffey that would violate the symmetry rule...
Here is an update of the COMPX... looks like its retesting the resistane line.
So have you noticed a time frame where the symetery is violated? For ex scottish traders w is bettween points 1 and 3 is 7 months, then bettween 3 and 5 is 4 months this you say violates symetry, but on your ealier post for wal-mart -- i noticed that there is not symetery bettween points 1 3 5 , but points 1 and 2 and 3 and 4 and 5 are closer in time intervals. I think im trying to look for what will violate the pattern , and thanks for an awsome post. tonyg
Many things are wrong with the above chart scottishtrader made when talking about WWs. This is not a personal attack. I just want to point it out the problems in the chart so everyone understands. I am repeatedly asked "does stock XYZ fit the WW pattern...?" Folks - if it doesnt look EXACTLY like the diagram I posted then it isnt a Wolfwave.
Here are a few things wrong with the chart:
Point 4 on Scottish Trader's chart is significantly above point 2... Yet point 3 is NOT equally above point 1....another thing I see wrong is that his chart does not have a significantly upsloping channel. Remember the WW is based on "imbalance". You are looking for an oversold or over bought position at point 5 with your target (balance point) being point 6 or connecting 1-4. Therefore you need a "fairly" steep upward move or steep downward move.
Yes, the channel trendlines can converge slightly...as long as they are equally converging on both the top and bottom. Again with Scottishtrader's example the top line was NOT as steep as the bottom support line...
The correct bear WW is shown below. The pattern must look EXACTLY like the one shown below...if it doesn't than you are not looking at a tradeable Wolfwave pattern.
>:D
Calven,
Thanks for the explanation, no worries, I don't take it as any kind of personal attack whatsoever. Just trying to look for wolfewaves, and as you said, figure out what is a valid one and what is not. This certainly helps!! And I'm also glad that the longer term chart is not a WW, thought I do still think the COMPX may be due for a pullback over the next few months - still looks overbought.
Please, if you see any others, or particularly tradeable (approaching point 5) examples, please let us know - would like to put it to the trading test, or at least follow one as it is developing. I may also start looking for them on shorter term charts too - may make some good chort term swing setups. ;)
I will most certainly post any WW's I see. The problem with the pattern is that it is very good at hiding... I have found just 2 in the past month...
I hope others post their WW's in this thread also.
thanks
>:D
calven,
Thanks for all your nice work on the Wolf Waves. Applause.
In the QQQQ, there isn't much slope to the waves, as there is to your NASDAQ Comp, but there's nice symmetry in both time and price. There is only one day difference between Waves 1&3 vs. Waves 2&4; and, there only is one penny difference between same.
Don't know if the slope is enough to qualify for a WW, though. ???
The QQQQ printed a new high today and still is chasing the trendline target at #6.
Here are some statistics of the rising wedge.
(http://xs58.xs.to/pics/05492/riseingwedge.jpg)
Failure rate 24%
Failure rate if waited for downside breakout 6%
Average decline after downside breakout 19%
Most likely decline after downside breakout 15%
Average # that meet price target 63%
Average # that pulled back to retest the breakpoint 53%
Average downside breakout distance to the apex 61%
Premature downside breakouts 22%
Rising wedges should only be shorted once a downside breakout has occurred as this lowers the risk substantially as you can see above.
referenced from the book: Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas N. Bulkowski - Publisher: John Wiley & Son http://tinyurl.com/8ezrz
NOTE: This type is based on it entering the form in a down trend. On this page I see one in an uptrend and ones in a down trend and they look the same but they do not act the same.
The falling wedge is like the WMT chart below and it has slightly different statistics
Failure rate 10%
Failure rate if waited for upside breakout 2%
Average rise after upside breakout 43%
Most likely rise after upside breakout 20 - 30%
Average # that meet price targets 88%
Average # that pulled back to retest the triangle bottom 47%
Average breakout distance to apex 69%
Premature breakouts 27%
(http://xs58.xs.to/pics/05492/fallwedge.jpg)
These are not the exact same as the wolfwave but similar - Here is I guess a discription like was below and also shows some gartleys which are fun
Advanced Channeling Patterns: Wolfe Waves and Gartleys
http://tinyurl.com/9xpjw
Here is another article by the same writer not this topic but a method to change settings on an indicator.
Timing Trades With The Commodity Channel Index
http://tinyurl.com/bpo2n
Wedges arent the same as WWs, not even close...
WW's are slightly converging in channels unlike the wedge which forms an apex.
WW needs near perfect symmetry and timing...wedges have no target (1-4 line)
Wedges also dont have a point 5 or 6.
They dont have points 1,2,3,4 either...
Wedges are trend reversal indicators; ww's are not.
Wedges contain no measured moves.
Wedges rely on breakouts at the apex..
Wedges rely on balance while WW's rely on imbalance.
WW's work in almost any timeframe!
Most importantly, WW's (when correctly identified) have the highest success rate of any known trading pattern. (90%+)
I could go on and on...
BTW i wrote this article "advanced channeling patterns...etc" - http://tinyurl.com/9xpjw
Justin published it for me since i wasnt employed with investopedia.
cal
Kewl cant wait to read. Same old question, school me on this one, Dndn seems to fit the critiria posted below
Sorry DNDN does not fit....
The bottom support line you drew doesn't connect the right points. Secondly your bottom support line is MUCH steeper than the top resistance line. This violates the symmetry rule.
Lastly the trendlines you drew make a fairly horizontal channel...the WW needs either an uptrend or downtrend.
-cal >:D
Just came acrossed this thread for the first time just now.... Pretty interesting stuff!
Great job calvin :D(applauds)
-fousc
Here is a wolfe wave setup: Points 1, 2, 3 and 4 are already setup. Point 5 looks like it may be coming very soon. Look for point 5 to hit in the coming week. Then this horse is off the races!! Unfortunately, I currently have it in my portfolio. I think i'll hold through this hard time. Good luck everyone!!
This looks like a WW. The only thing I question is again the fact that it is horizontal in nature. Ideallly it would be more downsloping. We'll see how this one developes... >:D
Quote from: thai626 on December 08, 2005, 10:47:35 AM
Here is a wolfe wave setup: Points 1, 2, 3 and 4 are already setup. Point 5 looks like it may be coming very soon.
thai,
Nice work. Applause.
I was looking at SVA from the standpoint of a possible Bullish Gartley. If 4.82-4.85 support doesn't hold here, it would be interesting if we decline to your Point #5 and reach 4.34 and hold there, which would be a symmetry of both price and time.
If that occurs, and SVA holds near 4.34 and rallies, that would complete your Wolfe Wave and also complete the Bullish Gartley. I'm not sure if this is a valid Gartley since the ratios weren't quite right.
Just something to watch for if SVA continues to decline here.
calven,
On the Wolfe Waves, I'm confused about where to start them. ???
For example, thai626 began his Wolfe Wave for SVA prior to the top (see his chart near the bottom of page 2 in this folder). On his chart, the top in SVA is labeled #2.
On your NASDAQ Composite chart, your point #1 starts after a top in August, so my question is: Are the any rules about where to begin the Wolfe Wave? Should they begin after a top or bottom is put in, or can we start them anywhere we want, as long as we have a reasonable slope, symmetry of price and time, etc.?
Thanks, and applause for all of your efforts in this folder to help us understand Wolfe Waves and Gartleys.. Interesting topic.
Quote from: metro on December 06, 2005, 12:09:52 PM
Here is another article by the same writer not this topic but a method to change settings on an indicator.
Timing Trades With The Commodity Channel Index
http://tinyurl.com/bpo2n
metro,
Thanks for the links to Wolfe Waves, Gartleys and The Commodity Channel Index. Applause.
That was interesting, for The Commodity Channel Index, to take the time between two highs or two lows, then divide it by three. I'll have to play with that one.
So many comments/questions I dont know where to begin.
First off, SVA is NOT a WW yet. SVA does have the potential to become a WW though. One important aspect of the WW is that points 1-4 exist in a channel, then point 5 DIPS BELOW THE CHANNEL. I want to stress that point. The WW is largely based on an unbalanced situation between buyers and sellers. Point 5 is representative of an overbought or oversold situation. In the case of the COMPX, the move below the channel created by points 1-4 was the key identifier for the WW. Once the compx dipped and broke back into the channel the pattern was confirmed!
There is NEVER a WW until point 5 occurs. A dip below the bottom or top channel lines at point 5 makes the WW that much more credible....althought the WW can possibly occur without the "dip"
To answer the second question. WW's CAN start any time. They do not necessarily have to be at the top of the first run up..... if you have doubts find point 5 and count backwards.
As I said earlier, the hardest part of this is identifcation. Once correctly identified points 5 and 6 are easy to trade!
That gartley looks good!
Good luck guys!
cal >:D
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 09, 2005, 07:41:41 AM
Quote from: metro on December 06, 2005, 12:09:52 PM
Here is another article by the same writer not this topic but a method to change settings on an indicator.
Timing Trades With The Commodity Channel Index
http://tinyurl.com/bpo2n
metro,
Thanks for the links to Wolfe Waves, Gartleys and The Commodity Channel Index. Applause.
That was interesting, for The Commodity Channel Index, to take the time between two highs or two lows, then divide it by three. I'll have to play with that one.
The author of that article is also a member of this 3SOF community. I'm sure you could PM him if you have questions/comments. His user name is: "kuepper"
cal >:D
Hey Calven,
KOMG. The chart is not perfect,but looks like a wolfwave to me.If that is true than we have may have a reversal situation here.Since I have read about wolf wave , I make it a point to go through about 300 charts everyday looking for a WW.Thanks for you help
Quote from: calven on December 09, 2005, 11:44:55 AM
First off, SVA is NOT a WW yet. SVA does have the potential to become a WW though. One important aspect of the WW is that points 1-4 exist in a channel, then point 5 DIPS BELOW THE CHANNEL.
There is NEVER a WW until point 5 occurs. A dip below the bottom or top channel lines at point 5 makes the WW that much more credible....althought the WW can possibly occur without the "dip"
As I said earlier, the hardest part of this is identifcation. Once correctly identified points 5 and 6 are easy to trade!
Hey Cal,
I agree with your assessment. I should have worded my analysis a little more clearly. I didn't say that SVA was a wolfewave yet but rather a setup for a wolfewave pattern. Like Melf Elf said in one of his posts, this potential wolvewave pattern along with the Gartley is something to look forward to IF the support line does fail. All I know is that I'll be buying more once i get confirmation at point 5. I would not buy until there is some bullish indication has taken place at point 5.
Melf Elf, thanks for the Applause......I would give you one back for your catch of a Gartley pattern but unfortunately my rating is too low to give you any appause. I'll just say "good work"! Looking forward to learning more from you from a technical analysis standpoint.
Thai 8)
Quote from: wrangler on November 29, 2005, 12:19:16 PM
Hi calven
Would you call this a wolfwave pattern. I don't have charting membership or software so I'm not able to draw the line and write on them.
Yes you can Wrangler.. you can use the "PAINT" program that already installed in ur computer to draw lines to the chart & even write on them..goodluck ;)
So cal is this a ww pattern frk on the way down >:D >:D
I drew lines but dont know if its correct ,,,, im still having trouble with a starting point.
opps no lol ,,, down slope is bullish :'( :'( ill get it , ill get it , ill get it
Nope that is not a wolfwave. You have to match the right trend to the right pattern...
-----------------------------------------------------------------
KOMG looks good! (applause for finding that!)
cal
OK Calven, NOW I think I got one ;D ;D ???
Only problem is that it has made its target - we need them at point 5!! This one is BellSouth:
Yeeessss!!!!!!
AWESOME WORK BOTH OF YOU!!! You got it~! (APPLAUSE)
Now saffey, the "trade-able" points are 5 and 6. In theory you could buy at point 5 and short at point 6. If you bought at point 5 the target would be point 6 (connect 1-4). Since 6 is also the target from point 5 theoretically you could short there as well. (shorting isnt for everyone thoug) I prefer to buy at point 5. As you hinted at, we need to find some at point 5. They are very hard to find but once you do, the pattern is extremely profitable. I was hoping that with the creation of this thread we could all contribute to finding WW's at point 5 so we could buy..
Thanks guys!
;D
Nice - I was pretty sure I knew what I was looking for anyway, but the main problem is that they are damn hard to find!! Interesting about the false breakoout - BLS shows exactly the same thing after point 5. May also be a buy point to look out for!!
Thanks for all the input Calven, many applauds for your sterling work here ;D
Applauds to calven, The Scotsman, Tony (agatto), thai626 and akclide. I think these Wolfe Waves are starting to sink in. ;)
I can see why the "false break" at #5 that calven keeps stressing is so important, and also can see why the move from #5 to #6 in his NASDAQ chart and in akclide's KOMG chart are so powerful, and so difficult to play. The rallies from #5 to #6 (or declines from #5 to #6, if it's a bearish Wolfe Wave) are nearly parabolic in nature, so very difficult to "hang in there" for the ride.
I'm going to use calven's NASDAQ chart for a "walk through," and calven, please correct me or add anything to this since you're the expert here.
Suggestion: Go down to the bottom of this post and move the scroll bar all the way to the right for easier reference.
1. The decline from the August high was a bullish channel IF it broke out to the upside. It didn't. It broke to the downside on October 11, setting Bear Trap #1 (or "false breakdown"), meaning that we're "trapped" into thinking that the resolution is BEARISH. We either sell our longs there, or we even short there. And, we do it almost exactly at the wrong time. >:(
2. After the break of the channel, the NASDAQ also broke horizontal support of 2039 on a closing basis, setting up Bear Trap #2. That looked awful at the time. We were at new five month lows, and that break caused more selling, and more shorting. EXACTLY at the low. >:(
3. From the break of 2039, we got a three day rally back to the broken channel, and the rally failed right there. The fourth day, October 18, was a black candle that reversed almost the entire prior day's trading. That set up Bear Trap #3: former support at the bottom of the channel was now resistance, as it "should be," and normally, we "sell at resistance, or short at resistance." But, it didn't work that time. >:(
4. October 19, THE 3 BEAR TRAPS GOT SPRUNG!! There was a gap down opening, and then a big white candlestick that took out the prior day's high (Entry #1), and also closed back inside the channel.
5. The first rally failed at the 50DMA, and we came back to the bottom of the channel. We even closed below the channel, slightly. That really should be Bear Trap #4 right there, because it looked like the rally off the low to the 50DMA had failed.
6. Long Entry #2 could be anywhere near the high of the next day, or the following day, on the takeout of the high of the October 27 black candle.
7. If you look at the chart from that October 27 low to the recent highs, it's pretty parabolic. Same with acklide's KOMG chart. What helps me to understand that, is what calven said about balance/imbalance. The proverbial "everyone" was caught off balance on that dip to the low at #5. Many players sold longs on breaks of support, or shorted it.
8. The upside breakaway gap out of the channel on November 3 not only brought in new buyers, the shorts were forced to cover. And, if they kept shorting the rally, they continually were forced to cover at higher prices, helping to fuel the rally to point #6.
Observations:
1. Identifying Wolfe Waves: we're basically looking for Bull Flags/Bull Channels (or Bear Flags/Bear Channels) that appear to have "gone wrong." Broken in the "wrong" direction. That's why calven keeps stressing the importance of the "false break" at point #5.
2. For an entry, personally, I'd wait until price regains the broken flag/channel. Otherwise, if we jump in at #5 and it isn't a Wolfe Wave, we might have caught a falling knife (that break of 2039 support could have gone the other way, and seriously tanked to the downside). Wait for the low to get put in, and use other indicators, as calven suggested.
EQR ;D yeah baby yeah hope this fits the pattern, ill let you know after i short on monday
heres one on the landing strip,, this one i will keep on the radar boo yaaaa //
Quote from: agatto2 on December 11, 2005, 07:53:46 AM
EQR ;D yeah baby yeah hope this fits the pattern, ill let you know after i short on monday
Tony,
Just so that you're aware, if you short EQR early this coming week, you likely will have to pay the $0.57 quarterly dividend.
I don't know if this will copy properly, but hiere's the recent dividend information:
AMOUNT EX-DATE PAYABLE RECORD DECLARATION
$0.570 15-Sep-05 17-Oct-05 19-Sep-05 24-Aug-05
$0.570 15-Jun-05 15-Jul-05 17-Jun-05 20-May-05
$0.570 16-Mar-05 15-Apr-05 18-Mar-05 21-Feb-05
$0.570 15-Dec-04 17-Jan-05 17-Dec-04 22-Nov-04
The Shareholder of Record date, based on the above, likely will be December 17, 18, or 19. Since trades settle three trading days after you purchase or short a stock, you'll be short on the Record Date, and would have to pay the dividend to the person from whom your broker borrowed the shares. Check with your broker, if it's a concern to you.
As far as the Wolfe Wave, it's a head scratcher for me. ??? ??? ???
You're Wave 1-2 equals your Wave 3-4 (both are about 7 days), so it meets that Symmetry criterion that calven stipulated, but the intervening up waves (2-3 and 4-5) are twice as long as the down waves (about 13 days). So, the stock is spending twice as much time going higher than it is spending going lower. It's hard to view that as anything bearish, but
maybe calven could help us with that. EQR had an upside breakaway gap out of a Symmetrical Triangle on October 24, putting 43.40 IN PLAY. The chart was bullish, so that pattern breakout, typically, is a continuation pattern (in this case, to the upside).
After the breakout, EQR successfully re-tested the down trendline breakout, then rallied toward the target. Sometimes, those targets don't make. It could be a truncated Elliott 5th wave, meaning that "it gets cut off...the target doesn't make."
There wasn't any negative divergence in things like MACD or RSI at the November 23 high, though, so I'm reluctant to view the recent selloff as bearish.
Just some thoughts...it will be interesting to see which way this one goes. Thanks for your posts, Tony. It's fun trying to figure these out, isn't it?
First off, Melf Elf - Excellent post! (applaud) I know quite a bit about the pattern, but not the dynamics behind it....
Also on point 5 - Yes, the real point of action is just after point 5 when the stock attempts to break back into the channel. That determines if the pattern is valid or not. You can also take action at point 6.....
Secondly, Agatto I would not short EQR. I think it already made its WW....I have posted a chart below. Try to identify WW's that look exactly like those diagrams I included below. They are drawn with precision (angles, time, period, symmetry etc) If you can find one like those please post!
Thanks for your contributions guys!
Cal >:D
For a more extended commentary on wolfewaves, check out
http://www.voodootrader.com/wolfewave.htm
While it goes on a bit and some is a bit over my head (please summarise if you understand the whole thing!!!) what is very interesting about this explanation is that it shows how wolfewaves follow on from each other and build on top of each other in different timeframes - this makes sense as the whole basis of the pattern is about imbalance and reaction to this imbalance.
As a result, I think that the second WW in EQR may well be valid - while the ascending channel is very steep, it is clearly out of balance at this level, and may be due for a correction. The bounce off the upper line of the channel after point 4 demonstrates this imbalance, that the stock was too strong to correct at this level. Maybe it is the divergence in RSI marked in red on my chart that signals an impending lack of strength (I know the RSI goes much higher after this) but this is my point, that when the price hit the tope of the channel, the RSI divergence indicated that a subsequent rally above this level could be overextended. Also, volume during the recent selloff has been as strong as during this very steep last rise, which suggests this is noot a low-vol. retrace. Personally, I don't short stocks, but please keep us posted if you do on this one, as it looks to be our first official "in-play" WW test, at least here on 3SOF. ;)
Awsome melf thanks ,,,, let me get you an applaud for that one, tony
Hay Calvin,,, thanks for the time looking at the chart. I think im kinda confused, when i look at the example that you gave in the opening page 1st post, i really dont see symetery,
( probebly old age ) so im thinking the channel and fib extensions are the really importent thing with some sorts of symetery, so they have to be picture perfect? What am i missing?
thanks tony
What about ATVI???
(I know the symmetry isn't perfect, but looks pretty close to me)
Target achieved and then some - I am looking for a solid bounce from this low level.
Please specify which chart (s) you are talking about agatto. Looking back at old posts it seems as if all the WW's I have given look symmetrical. EQR could be a WW but it seems a bit "too steep"
Also scottishtrader, I am not sure how WW's factor in to gap downs... obviously the 1-4 line can be broken if overwhelming news causes selling... if fundamentals are so bearish that huge gap downs occur I think this throws the legitimacy away...
As for the chart you have I do see a WW there. I think since point 6 was already exceeded I would expect that stock to attempt to move over the 1-4 line (and fail). Basically I think the 1-4 line will serve as resistance now. (resistance just above 14)
Hi Cal,
Any chance I caught a keeper? I'm a rookie and posting a chart for the second time (first time was on the test thread) so here it is I hope:
Quote from: ScottishTrader on December 11, 2005, 04:25:35 PM
For a more extended commentary on wolfewaves, check out
http://www.voodootrader.com/wolfewave.htm
Scotsman,
Thanks for that link. Applause. Interesting reading.
Quote
While it goes on a bit and some is a bit over my head (please summarise if you understand the whole thing!!!)
I didn't understand it. ??? ::)
1. There were several examples in which Wave #5 tagged the channel, but never broke through it. I thought that was a requirement, but the Wave #6 target still made without the channel ever breaking.
2. There were several examples in which I didn't see any symmetry or the Fibonacci extensions. ???
3. There were several examples in which the Wolfe Wave began (Wave #1) right in the middle of, say, a 10-15 day move down (or a move up). That didn't make any sense.
4. In the Royal Gold example (chart below), I probably would have been stopped out a few times, trying to short the move out of the channel to Wave #5. >:(
The stock went above the channel at 21.054, then it went back inside it (theoretically, I would have shorted it there), but then it went all the way up to about $28 before completing a H&S top,
then it made the downside target at #6.
We're going to have to be careful about long and short entries at Wave #5. Royal Gold was a difficult short entry on the move out of the channel to #5, in part, due to "don't short stocks in an uptrend."
QuoteAs a result, I think that the second WW in EQR may well be valid - while the ascending channel is very steep, it is clearly out of balance at this level, and may be due for a correction.
It looks as valid as a number of examples that I saw at the link you posted, but personally, I still wouldn't want to short EQR here for the reasons that I mentioned. It's in a strong uptrend, and there still is an upside target IN PLAY. You and Tony very well could be right, though.
Quote
I have found through personal experience with the pattern that the point 5 "false break" makes the pattern that much more reliable. Although I think I mentioned earlier that it wasn't "absolutely necessary". Basically, Im saying the "false break" exists in the ideal WW pattern, like the diagrams I presented. Furthermore VOODOO Trader is an advanced trader. He is on a whole new level so to speak. Im just presenting the basic "reliable" pattern. VOODOO goes above and beyond that. His charts are the result of years of experience with the pattern. He obviously expanded the "rules" to fit his needs and observations. Hopefully we can all get to that point also. I just thought we would start with the basic and work from there...
As for CHINA...something doesnt look right with it but I cant quite pin it down.I think it just looks different because of the huge reaction highs.. It's probably just me.... Using the criteria I have given "CHINA" is a WW. I think its valid. What do you guys think?
cal >:D
Here is another view of China CDC
Here is could go either way - now it can be bought with a stop just under trend line for low risk or a short if it breaks down on good volume but has support pretty close and already at lower B band and low stochastics....
(http://xs59.xs.to/pics/05501/cdc121206.jpg)
Quote from: metro on December 12, 2005, 12:58:50 PM
Here is another view of China CDC
Very good, metro. Applause.
We had two Inverted Hammers on your up trendline last Thursday and Friday, validating it as support, and today, CHINA has taken out the high of those two sessions.
Quote from: calven on December 11, 2005, 11:01:04 PM
As for the chart you have I do see a WW there. I think since point 6 was already exceeded I would expect that stock to attempt to move over the 1-4 line (and fail). Basically I think the 1-4 line will serve as resistance now. (resistance just above 14)
calven,
Good read on that Wave 1-4 bisect serving as resitance. Applause.
Scotsman,
I was trying to figure why ATVI overshot the Wave 1-4 bisect, then stopped where it did. ???
It turns out that ATVI bounced off the bottom of the Andrews' Pitchfork on December 5. From there, a Bear Flag rally back to the Wave 1-4 bisect, which served as resistance yesterday, as calven suggested. There also was horizontal resistance in that area on yesterday morning's gap opening.
Yesterday, Mike Santoli of Barrons was very bullish on ATVI, long-term. He thinks ATVI is the best in the group, but the chart isn't looking so hot, near-term.
Calven,
you can buy CHINA at a pullback at about 2.75 like Wolfwave Pattern seems to indicate us.
But i we have a look on china we can see that we have also a double bottom formation. And about 2.750 it is also a good support for buying this stock. Have a look on my word document.
Wolfwave Pattern and double bottom pattern work together for China !!! Great...
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 09, 2005, 06:42:56 AM
Quote from: thai626 on December 08, 2005, 10:47:35 AM
Here is a wolfe wave setup: Points 1, 2, 3 and 4 are already setup. Point 5 looks like it may be coming very soon.
thai,
Nice work. Applause.
I was looking at SVA from the standpoint of a possible Bullish Gartley. If 4.82-4.85 support doesn't hold here, it would be interesting if we decline to your Point #5 and reach 4.34 and hold there, which would be a symmetry of both price and time.
If that occurs, and SVA holds near 4.34 and rallies, that would complete your Wolfe Wave and also complete the Bullish Gartley. I'm not sure if this is a valid Gartley since the ratios weren't quite right.
Just something to watch for if SVA continues to decline here.
Hi everyone,
Looks like this is becoming a valid WW pattern since the support line has been broken. Also, good call on the Gartley Melf Elf (applaud again)....I'm about to put a limit order to buy around 4.50. That could potentially hit today, tomorrow or by weeks end.........i'm waiting for some kind of bottom before I pull the trigger. Good luck everyone!
be careful thai626 ,
a double top pattern is formed...But a pullback can arrive !
CMI Ok Kal watca think 8) cmi
CMI is a no go, as a WW is a reversal pattern, so a bullish WW occurs in a bearish trend and a bearish WW occurs in a bullish trend ;)
Quote from: ScottishTrader on December 13, 2005, 07:42:15 PM
CMI is a no go, as a WW is a reversal pattern, so a bullish WW occurs in a bearish trend and a bearish WW occurs in a bullish trend ;)
If I'm looking at it right wouldn't that make Thai's setup for SVA wrong as well? SVA is in a bearish trend and Thai has a bearish WW in place when it should be a bullish WW.
Quote from: Calstar on December 13, 2005, 08:30:32 PM
Quote from: ScottishTrader on December 13, 2005, 07:42:15 PM
CMI is a no go, as a WW is a reversal pattern, so a bullish WW occurs in a bearish trend and a bearish WW occurs in a bullish trend ;)
If I'm looking at it right wouldn't that make Thai's setup for SVA wrong as well? SVA is in a bearish trend and Thai has a bearish WW in place when it should be a bullish WW.
No Calstar, my chart shows my target entry point around 4.50. After that the target exit price will be at point 6 which is not shown in my most recent post. Basically just connect a line through point 1 & 4 and that will be the target exit price. Good luck!
Thanks Thai!
I had to go back to the beginning of this thread (again!) for a refresher!
You are so right s trader,,, after i posted i said omg i did it again ,,,, lol. Well were all learning here . I will find some more legitimate ones.
There has got to be a place to fish for these. If i want a trout i go to a stream, lake trout ,lake. So guys where would a over bought stock be, or where would a over sold stock be? Ill post what i find,,, most ive seen have been in a stock at the bottom of an up trend, but i dont want to short stocks in up trends. hummm
I think I found one. Comments please.
HI,
I think QTWW has built a bullish wolve wave pattern, a very long one, about 1,5 years.
Price now is 2,65, target is 6$.
I don´t know how to put a chart in.
Perhaps someone an do that.
thanks.
therman
Quote from: therman on December 14, 2005, 02:23:53 AM
HI,
I think QTWW has built a bullish wolve wave pattern, a very long one, about 1,5 years.
Price now is 2,65, target is 6$.
I don´t know how to put a chart in.
Perhaps someone an do that.
thanks.
therman
therman,
You will have to tell me if I've drawn this the way that you were looking at it.
If so, I don't think it's a Wolfe Wave because the upper down trendline slopes too steeply. If I understand calven correctly, Wave 4 should be up where I've drawn the dotted blue line, so that it's more of a channel.
This pattern (in blue) looks more like a Falling Wedge. The breakdown below the pattern (at #5) on a bullish-looking Hammer, however, could be a fakeout to the downside, similar to the effect of a Wave #5 in a Wolfe Wave. There are three tags to the top of the pattern, so that trendline has been validated as resistance.
It might be a nice play on the long side if that upper trendline gets taken out.
ciao ragazzi,sono daniele e abito in italia,amo le onde di wolfe,opero in particolare sui future sp500 e nasdaq100
time frame 60 minuto mininasdaq.
Quote from: thai626 on December 13, 2005, 10:39:48 AM
I'm about to put a limit order to buy around 4.50.
thai,
I wanted SVA at 4.34, if the Gartley completed yesterday, for a 10+% rally back to 4.82-4.85. Didn't get it. Yesterday's low only got to 4.60, so I didn't play it.
Thank You Melf Elf,
I applaud,
yes that´s the way I look to the chart, and I saw that it is a triangle/wedge .
I took a look to the explanation of the wolve wave from calven.
In the examples I see that there are no normal trend channels with parallel trendlines,
because the channels are gettin more and more narrow to the end, with a small angle,
but you´re right they aren´t sloping so steeply.
Thank you once more for the explanation.
therman
Quote from: therman on December 14, 2005, 09:14:11 AM
In the examples I see that there are no normal trend channels with parallel trendlines,
because the channels are gettin more and more narrow to the end, with a small angle,
but you´re right they aren´t sloping so steeply.
therman,
Yes, I see what you mean about the channels. I've seen some Wolfe Wave examples that look much more like wedges, but "use what works," eh?
Your QTWW very well could work out to have the effect of a Wolfe Wave, which would be to breakout above the wedge, then rally to $6-ish.
We'll watch it. ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 14, 2005, 09:04:37 AM
thai,
I wanted SVA at 4.34, if the Gartley completed yesterday, for a 10+% rally back to 4.82-4.85. Didn't get it. Yesterday's low only got to 4.60, so I didn't play it.
Quote
Hi Melf Elf,
Ya, I didn't get any either. My target entry is just about 4.40-4.50. If it doesn't hit in the next couple of days, the WW will lose its symmetry and the pattern will no longer be valid. O well, there's always more fishes in the sea! Good luck!
Quote from: nasdaqtrading on December 14, 2005, 06:51:25 AM
ciao ragazzi,sono daniele e abito in italia,amo le onde di wolfe,opero in particolare sui future sp500 e nasdaq100
time frame 60 minuto mininasdaq.
Ciao Sono Roberto.
Torna a casa TARTUFON. ;D ;D 1-2-3-4-5.......tARGET..
CMI is not a ww. I am 100 % sure. Please refer to those original diagrams showing the exact patterns.
A bull WW is like a bull flag...its a small retracement therefore the trend has to be down
A bear WW is like a bear flag....the movement is up before a breakdown.
QTWW is a WW. Nice find ! (applaud)
I got some new diagrams including the trend needed for each ww. My previous diagrams lacked this aspect. This should clear things up 100%!
The following diagrams are from www.chart.nu-
As you can see the patterns are in the wrong trend...something i have tried to tell you both but you didnt understand. These diagrams should clear it up...
A bull ww needs to be pointed downward....CMI doesnt fit this.... SVA is also not in an overall downtrend...it doesnt fit either
THIS ONE WORKS! QTWW
No wonder this was so confusing for you guys. I didnt include the previous trendline leading into the WW's for you guys. My mistake and apologies! I cant believe I didnt see this earlier!
I stated that the trends must agree with the pattern bull or bear but its much easier to understand and see with diagrams that include it!
Sorry again folks. Now you should get it....
Here are the new diagrams - including the trend leading into the WW.
;) Cal
QTWW..looks like a WW to me! I think I might buy a small position
If this WW becomes valid 6.00 would be a huge move from here. Remeber though, it could take 18 months for point 6 to be hit....furthermore, fundamentals still control the stock since this WW is for the long term.
>:D cal
Quote from: calven on December 16, 2005, 12:22:06 AM
A bull WW is like a bull flag...its a small retracement therefore the trend has to be down
A bear WW is like a bear flag....the movement is up before a breakdown.
QTWW is a WW. Nice find ! (applaud)
calven,
therman and I weren't sure about that. Thanks for clarifying it. Thanks also for clarifying the lead-in to the Wolfe Wave. Applause.
Since QTWW is Falling Wedge, but it qualifies as a Wolfe Wave, maybe we should say:
A bull WW is like a bull flag
or a Falling Wedge.
A bear WW is like a bear flag
or a Rising Wedge.I was looking only for WWs that had a parallel, or near parallel channel, which ruled out alot of stuff. What do you think?
I'm watching the Wolfe Wave in the S&P 500. Not sure if the pop above the top of the Bear Flag on Thursday was enough to complete it, or if we have another push higher for Wave 5.
Short-term, basis the 10-minute chart, it looks like a H&S top if we take out SPX 1268.
The 10-Minute chart of the SPX appears to be a fractal of the Bear Flag in the daily chart in the last post. A "fractal" means a repeating pattern...it is "mirroring" the behavior seen in the daily chart (a Bear Flag).
This chart is from late afternoon yesterday, and doesn't include all of the trading into the close, but the close was 1270.94, which is right near the bottom of the Bear Flag.
Thanks for clearing that up cal... :-\ This makes it much clearer to me at least. Melf ,, that changes the dynamics of the trade. Would you please outline the people/emotional aspect of the trade with the new lead in? Ill give you a applaude ::) ::)
Awsome job on this guys tonyg
Quote from: agatto2 on December 17, 2005, 07:49:03 AM
Melf ,, that changes the dynamics of the trade. Would you please outline the people/emotional aspect of the trade with the new lead in?
tony,
The lead-in was one of the things that I understood from the beginning, from calven's explanation, charts that he posted, and charts at the site that The Scotsman gave us, (though I was confused on a lot of other stuff), so my take on the emotional/psychological aspect of the Wolfe Wave trade is the same.
At the October low in the QQQQ and NASDAQ Composite, for example, we had an imbalance at Wave #5, when they broke their channels to the downside. Theoretically, players sold their long positions at the channel break, and even shorted that break. So, the proverbial "everyone" was on the wrong side of the trade, thus the parabolic-type rally from there to the present.
Players had to buy back their long positions, and shorts had to buy to cover their positions. "Everyone" had to buy, especially on the November 3 breakaway gap to the upside out of the top of the Wolfe Wave pattern.
Following that logic, (using the SPX chart below as an example) the proverbial "everyone" is now long the SPX and/or has covered their short postions as we ratchet our way higher in this current Wolfe Wave. As we have continued to make higher highs and higher lows in this "Bear Flag" Wolfe Wave, more buyers have come in and more shorts have been forced to cover, but the technical indicators are getting weaker and weaker, not confirming the move higher.
The daily MACD in the SPX, for example, now is below the signal line, and on Friday, it turned down from an attempt to get back above the signal line. Wave 5 could already be in for the SPX, given the action in the 10-minute chart which I'll show you in the next post, but if we bust through the top of the Wolfe Wave pattern in the daily chart (below), MACD almost assuredly won't confirm the move to new highs.
BTW, now that we know that Wolfe Waves also can be Bearish Rising Wedges, and that they don't have to be parallel channels, I'm now thinking that your EQR chart is a valid Wolfe Wave. I'll post that chart after the post on the SPX 10-minute chart.
Basis the 10-Minute chart, we had a Symmetrical Triangle break to the downside in the final hour of Friday's trading, and also had a failed re-test of the pattern breakdown at the 3:30PM bar.
tony,
Sorry that this chart is difficult to read. The pattern in blue is the Bullish Falling Wedge; the pattern in Black is your Bearish Wolfe Wave.
Given that EQR gapped down below your pattern on Thursday, that suggests that the upside target of 43.40 from the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout on October 24 isn't going to get made.
If the gap at 40.60-40.67 from Wednesday gets filled, I might short it. Notice, though, that the bottom of the broken Rising Wedge/Wolfe Wave pattern was resistance on Friday.
Awsome melf ive been keeping my eye on it,, I thought it was gonna work out,. Thanks for the hard work on the charts. I will find some more this weekend and post a little later tonyg
Great work guys! EQR seems to be working out nicely. Now approaching point 6 on the 1-4 line your drew...
>:D
cal
GSS completed a Bearish Gartley on December 8, then gapped down from 2.64-2.66. GSS currently is 2.40.
I'm wondering if it's going to rally 10% here, to fill that gap. ???
Background:
1. The Gartley was a fairly decent symmetry of both time and price:
Time: A-C was 14 days; B-D was 11 days.
Price: The difference between the A-B rally and the C-D rally was four cents.
2. After the Gartley completed at 2.82 and GSS gapped down, it appeared to find support at the A-C trendline on December 13 when it closed less than a penny above it.
December 14, however, GSS closed a penny below that trendline, but the candlestick was an exact Bullish Inverted Doji Star Hammer (the open and close both were 2.27), but that candlestick only is bullish with upside confirmation.
3. We got the upside confirmation on Friday, when GSS printed 2.35, a penny above Thursday's high of 2.34, and when it also printed 2.36, a penny above Wednesday's Bullish Doji Star Hammer high of 2.35 (buy pivot), so at this point, Wednesday's close, which was a penny below the trendline, looks like a fakeout to the downside.
4. MACD (see chart, next post) is supportive of at least a gap-filling rally to 2.64; it ticked higher from its signal line on Friday. MACD might go up to the zero line, then fail there, but that would be okay as long as GSS rallies the 10% in the process, to fill the gap.
Summary:
The A-C trendline comes in on Monday, December 19 at 2.3096, so 2.31. (It rises 0.00884 per day).
If GSS pulls back a little to the buy pivot area, 2.34..2.35..2.36, I'm thinking about buying it for a 10% gap-filling rally to 2.64-2.66, with a close below 2.31 as a stop, or an intraday print below 2.28 (Thursday's low) as a stop.
Still thinking it over... ::)
GSS - MACD chart:
Thought i would post this as a study aid ;D Seems to me on this one, the ww whiped into another ww on down ward momentum, but of interest to me is the target for the second ww would be the high off the first !! How kewl is that
Soryr bout the other chart guys, i copied from the voodoo guy site and dident turn out so well.
Heres EDMC off the 5 point and now looking for a nice drop ? We shall see
Guys wht do you think of this ive posted a 3 point chart ( observation ) for edmc . My theory is if we establish point # 2 in all of directions we will for sure know where point three is going to be by simply extending the line? Look at the edmc chart below
Im not sure what to tell you agatto. The pattern would fit except the "lead in" and trend don't compliment the pattern, therefore I would assume the WW pattern doesn't/can't fit for EQR. I can see your reasoning though....
QTWW & DESC are the best WW's I have seen us post so far.
Do you think CHINA still fits the pattern?
I wounder ,,, iyk the stock is in a slight down trend for six months, so i wonder if this is a valid pattern.
Both of those look like they could work. Nice find. Applaud!
>:D
Hi All,
First off, I would like to thank Calvin for this great tutorial on Wolf Wave. I notice that some of you are using MetaStock software.
Calvin, I know that you are a pro trader. I was wondering if you (or anyone else) have ever tried the Wolf Wave pattern recognition within MetaStock. Is it accurate? What is your input on this?
http://www.guppytraders.com/Metastock%20Formulas/metastock%20formula%2022.htm
Thanks in advance,
Wayne
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 17, 2005, 11:25:22 AM
Basis the 10-Minute chart, we had a Symmetrical Triangle break to the downside in the final hour of Friday's trading, and also had a failed re-test of the pattern breakdown at the 3:30PM bar.
The re-tests of the bottom of the broken trendline is good example of a fractal, meaning a repeating pattern.
The pattern since Friday's downside break is a compressed, or 'mini" Symmetrical Triangle, so to speak; a smaller version of the much larger Symmetrical Triangle. When it finally failed this afternoon at the bottom of the broken larger Symmetrical Triangle pattern, the SPX tanked.
Looks like SVA completed the bullish gartley and wolfwave pattern. Was the 4th leg of the wolf leg too long, therefore destroying the pattern?
Printed 4.30 today.
Hello All - I'm a first time poster. Thank you Calven. I find this topic very compelling. I'm anxious for feedback about a Wolfwave pattern that may have formed with FORD. Unfortunately, I don't know how to get a chart of my work included here. Anyway, for those inclined to draw the chart for me/us, I would appreciated it.
From the $22.35 low on August 25, to the $29.85 high on September 13. This is point 1 to point 2.
From point 2 to the low of $16.75 on October 14. This is point 3.
From point 3 to the high of $26.40 on November 14. This is point 4.
From point 4 to the low of $13.91 on December 15. This IS point 5, or where point 5 was violated. In other words, I think we're at the buying point for the ride to point 6.
The line from point 1 to point 6 reveals a price target of $28. Not too shabby.
Thanks for your input.
Quote from: rurouni on December 19, 2005, 01:07:51 PM
Hi All,
First off, I would like to thank Calvin for this great tutorial on Wolf Wave. I notice that some of you are using MetaStock software.
Calvin, I know that you are a pro trader. I was wondering if you (or anyone else) have ever tried the Wolf Wave pattern recognition within MetaStock. Is it accurate? What is your input on this?
http://www.guppytraders.com/Metastock%20Formulas/metastock%20formula%2022.htm
Thanks in advance,
Wayne
I have never attempted to use pattern recognition software for WW's. I have used it for the "ascending triangle" pattern which is also a powerful bull pattern. Would be interested in using it for WW's if it worked. I have never used metastock, only tradecision. If anyone else can comment on the validity of pattern matching for WW's on metastock I would also be interested.
Thanks,
Cal >:D
Quote from: bid2ask4 on December 19, 2005, 07:13:21 PM
Hello All - I'm a first time poster. Thank you Calven. I find this topic very compelling. I'm anxious for feedback about a Wolfwave pattern that may have formed with FORD. Unfortunately, I don't know how to get a chart of my work included here. Anyway, for those inclined to draw the chart for me/us, I would appreciated it.
From the $22.35 low on August 25, to the $29.85 high on September 13. This is point 1 to point 2.
From point 2 to the low of $16.75 on October 14. This is point 3.
From point 3 to the high of $26.40 on November 14. This is point 4.
From point 4 to the low of $13.91 on December 15. This IS point 5, or where point 5 was violated. In other words, I think we're at the buying point for the ride to point 6.
The line from point 1 to point 6 reveals a price target of $28. Not too shabby.
Thanks for your input.
Hey,
Thanks for joining our thread. I love having new posters here! Glad your here... Im hoping we can all master this pattern so we can use it to trade. By having more members contributing to this thread we can hopefully find more WW's!
As for FORD I don't think I see a valid WW pattern there. Where you said "The line from point 1 to point 6 reveals a price target of $28. Not too shabby." It would actually be connecting points 1 and 4 which would give the price target. Maybe the other guys could help me out if I missed it. Anyways here is the diagram below. DESC and QTWW are WW's. EQR is looking like one also.
cal >:D
Calven, great to see you online. Yes, I meant to say the line from point 1 through 4 revealed point 6 to be at $28.
On the chart I drew of FORD, the line from point 2 to 4 was NOT parallel with the line from point 1 to 3. I see your bull and bear examples are parallel. However, line 1 to 2 and 3 to 4 are closely parallel, and line 2 to 3 and 3 to 5 are closely parallel.
If FORD is a mistake, maybe someone can draw it so we all see the mistake!
Sorry bid2ask, I think I charted this the way you stated. I don't see point 5 hitting the trendline yet. ??? Also as you can see from Calven's sketchings, the trend should be in a downwave before it enters a possible Wolfwave.
Thank you kslifka.
Yes, violation #1 was using the last runup to FORD's high of $29.85 - it's only been downhill after that, not before. We need something ALREADY in a downward trend.
Violation #2 was point 1 not connecting with point 3 so that it revealed point 5 accurately. And even for accuracy's sake, I don't want to see FORD go to $10 so that things do line up!
Quote from: calven on December 19, 2005, 07:46:46 PM
I have never attempted to use pattern recognition software for WW's. I have used it for the "ascending triangle" pattern which is also a powerful bull pattern. Would be interested in using it for WW's if it worked. I have never used metastock, only tradecision. If anyone else can comment on the validity of pattern matching for WW's on metastock I would also be interested.
Thanks,
Cal >:D
Thanks Cal,
I think we can use another Message Board under the Knowledge Center topic strictly for discussion on trading software/tools such as Metastock, OmniTrade, etc where we can discuss the use of such software more in depth for newbies and pros. What do you guys think?
As Calven indicated, DESC is in a Wolfwave. Possibly headed for that descending line.
Quote from: bjc on December 19, 2005, 05:06:12 PM
Looks like SVA completed the bullish gartley and wolfwave pattern. Was the 4th leg of the wolf leg too long, therefore destroying the pattern?
Printed 4.30 today.
bjc,
If I'm understanding WWs correctly, the recent pattern in SVA can't be a WW because the lead-in was to the upside, but the pattern formed to the downside (see thai's chart near the bottom of page 2). When thai and I were discussing the WW and Gartley possiblities, I forgot to look at the lead-in.
To qualify as a Wolfe Wave, the pattern must form in the same direction as the lead-in. (
calven, please correct me if that's wrong)
As you noted (applause), the Gartley completed yesterday at 4.34, a week late. I think that it still qualifies as a completed Gartley, but if it had been last Monday, it would have been a near-perfect symmetry of price and time, and I was prepared to buy it there.
But, since it was late, and since I'm not real confident about playing these Gartleys, I didn't buy it yesterday. I would have been more willing to buy it if yesterday's candlestick was a Bullish Hammer, but it wasn't.
One of the tricky things about Gartleys is that if it keeps going lower after it completes, you're buying a "falling knife." There's no nearby support here, since key support at 4.82-4.85 support was broken, and since we also broke and closed below last week's low of 4.60.
Wayne (rurouni),
Thanks for the Metastock WW formula. Applause.
I haven't had any success with figuring out how to work with formulas (my own stupidity), but I'll let you know if I figure out how to do it.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2005, 03:21:35 PM
The pattern since Friday's downside break is a compressed, or 'mini" Symmetrical Triangle, so to speak; a smaller version of the much larger Symmetrical Triangle. When it finally failed this afternoon at the bottom of the broken larger Symmetrical Triangle pattern, the SPX tanked.
The pattern break in the 10-minute chart has us headed down to the bottom of the Wolfe Wave/Bear flag in the daily chart.
A couple of things to note about this possible Wolfe Wave, so that we all have the same understanding about these patterns: (
calven, please correct me if this is wrong):
1. The Wolfe Wave pattern is forming in the direction of the lead-in. The lead-in was up. The pattern formation is to the upside (also known as a bear flag).
2. Wave 5 didn't go above the pattern, but calven said that it doesn't necessarily have to do that.
"Notice that point 5 shown on the diagram above is a move slightly above or below the channel created by waves 1-2 & 3-4. This move is usually a false breakout or breakdown of the original channel and is the best place to enter a stock long or short.
The false action at point 5 occurs most of the time in the pattern but isn't absolutely necessary."
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 06, 2005, 11:25:14 AM
The QQQQ printed a new high today and still is chasing the trendline target at #6.
The QQQQ
almost got to the Wolfe Wave target at #6 on November 23 (see green arrow). The trendline that day was at 42.12; the high in the QQQQ was 42.02. Targets don't always get made exactly. That was close enough, I guess, since yesterday we had a pattern break in the QQQQ to the downside. 40.30 is IN PLAY.
Wayne (or anybody else),
I've been trying to work with the Wolfe Wave formula for Metastock. For Column A, I started with...
Pa:=Trough(4,LOW,5);
...per the instructions below.
When I got to the end of Column A, I got this prompt: "please array e.g HIGH, LOW, CLOSE, etc., or function expected." I didn't know what to put, so I put HIGH at the end of Column A. Anybody know if that was right?
When I ran the Explorer program, I got the message "no securites to report."
I included QTWW, EQR, QQQQ, SPX, COMPX and a few others in the test, figuring that one of those would show up as a WW. None did.
Here's the formula that I entered, according to the link that you gave us, Wayne:
Here's a simple Metastock exploration for locating Wolf Wave patterns. It doesn't hit all that often, but when it does, it's best to pay attention.
ColA: WW
Pa:=Trough(4,LOW,5);
Pb:=Peak(3,HIGH,5);
P1:=Trough(3,LOW,5);
P2:=Peak(2,HIGH,5);
P3:=Trough(2,LOW,5);
P4:=Peak(1,HIGH,5);
P5:=Trough(1,LOW,5);
tb:=TroughBars(1,LOW,5);
tb<=4 AND
p1 > pa AND
pb < p2 AND
p1 < p2 AND
p1 < p4 AND
p1 > p3 AND
p3 > p5 AND
p4 < p2 AND
Here's where I got the prompt to put HIGH, LOW, CLOSE or expected function.
ColB: Tangents
p1:=Trough(3,LOW,5);
p3:=Trough(2,LOW,5);
p5:=Trough(1,LOW,5);
o1:=p1-p3;
o2:=p1-p5;
a1:=TroughBars(3,LOW,5)-TroughBars(2,LOW,5);
a2:=TroughBars(3,LOW,5)-TroughBars(1,LOW,5);
tan1:=o1/a1;
tan2:=o2/a2;
Abs(tan1-tan2)
Filter:
colA AND colB <= .2
hey, great thread going here.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 20, 2005, 07:30:44 AM
Wayne (or anybody else),
I've been trying to work with the Wolfe Wave formula for Metastock. For Column A, I started with...
Pa:=Trough(4,LOW,5);
...per the instructions below.
When I got to the end of Column A, I got this prompt: "please array e.g HIGH, LOW, CLOSE, etc., or function expected." I didn't know what to put, so I put HIGH at the end of Column A. Anybody know if that was right?
When I ran the Explorer program, I got the message "no securites to report."
I included QTWW, EQR, QQQQ, SPX, COMPX and a few others in the test, figuring that one of those would show up as a WW. None did.
Here's the formula that I entered, according to the link that you gave us, Wayne:
Hi Melf, I am still in the process of trying to get familiar with Metastock so I am new at it. I cam across that site while looking for plugins. I will let you know if I can get that formula running.
Melf Elf when I used tradestation for awhile they had staff members who would help their customers build a search. I'm assuming MStock does likewise.
Good Luck. You are on a good quest there.
STEM on a 2 year weekly. Am I seeing a WW forming a final leg up Calven?
Fantastic tutorials on the wolfwave Calven
applaude
Here is a nice one. :)
Hi Calstar,
I am not sure but I think your diagram doesn't qualify for a Wolfewave yet since point 5 seems to stop far from touching the trendline. Remember Calven stressed that point 5 must go beyond the trendline then return. Who knows, maybe it could be on its way for a Wolfewave in the making. What do you guys think?
PETS is in a nice uptrending channel right now. For all we know it could go to 100. Like Calven mentioned, point 5 is critical to identifying a WW. If it breaks out of the upper trendline and returns to the channel, only then will we talk about Wolfwaves. Keep a watch on it though, it has good symmetry.
Quote from: kslifka on December 20, 2005, 10:00:02 PM
PETS is in a nice uptrending channel right now. For all we know it could go to 100. Like Calven mentioned, point 5 is critical to identifying a WW. If it breaks out of the upper trendline and returns to the channel, only then will we talk about Wolfwaves. Keep a watch on it though, it has good symmetry.
Yup, good observation Calstar/kslifka. Calstar, you may have something good here. Let's keep an eye on it.
Heck:
Look at DESC - 60 minute - one week.
Is this a developing WW?
I've read this thread at least 3 times, and looked at more charts than an optomitrist.
I've been fishing in largest losers and 52 week lows
but think I may have found one:
MWE
MarkWest Energy Partners LP
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/MWE12-22-05.jpg)
The fundamentals don't suck too badly either:
67% Revenue Growth and a 20 Fwd. P/E
Thoughts?
OK, just noticed average daily volume on MWE is only about 10,000 shares.
35,000 traded in todays drop.
Not sure how volume that low plays into WW
CAlster awxom find pets,,, i had to applaud you. And use it at the five point... Melf you stupid????? If your stupid ,, man some of your technicals are gliffin genius. tonyg
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 20, 2005, 04:28:45 AM
Thanks for the Metastock WW formula. Applause.
I haven't had any success with figuring out how to work with formulas, but I'll let you know if I figure out how to do it.
Hi Melf,
Thanks for the applause and you are welcome. I haven't had the chance to fiddle around with Metastock much either and I think we should request an MB for strictly software usage and help. How can I do so? Just email David or 3sof staff?
Quote from: rurouni on December 22, 2005, 12:01:51 PM
I think we should request an MB for strictly software usage and help. How can I do so? Just email David or 3sof staff?
Wayne,
Maybe you could start a thread like "Help With Metastock" or "Working With Metastock" on this Technical Analysis board? Thanks for your efforts to figure out that WW formula.
Quote from: agatto2 on December 22, 2005, 11:41:32 AM
Melf you stupid????? If your stupid ,, man some of your technicals are gliffin genius. tonyg
Tony,
Thank you, but I can be
plenty stupid, believe me. :D
Quote from: Tirebldr on December 20, 2005, 02:19:03 PM
Melf Elf when I used tradestation for awhile they had staff members who would help their customers build a search. I'm assuming MStock does likewise.
Good Luck. You are on a good quest there.
tirebldr,
Thanks for the suggestion. I've found Metastock support to be helpful. They don't have a toll free number for support, however, so the meter is running while you're trying to tell them your problem.
I'm not exactly sure what my problem is, or the right questions to ask them. ???
You see what I mean when I said that I can be plenty stupid. ;D
Hey Guys,
Here is another wolfewave........or what looks to be a wolfewave. I don't know if I connect the trendlines correctly. Anyways, point 5 has already hit and now it's on it's way to point 6.
I think i'll be more sure of the pattern if the support trendline gets broken....otherwise, it's a pretty close call.
Quote from: thai626 on December 23, 2005, 01:09:00 AM
Hey Guys,
Here is another wolfewave........or what looks to be a wolfewave. I don't know if I connect the trendlines correctly.
thai,
I don't think that we can ignore the high of 2.50 on October 5, and arbitrarily start Wave 1 the next day, as you did. Otherwise, it sure has the right look to it. Applause for your efforts.
Another problem, in gerneral, is that most brokers won't allow us to short stocks under $5.00. Check with your brokers, but I know that Scottrade won't allow it.
Quote
I think i'll be more sure of the pattern if the support trendline gets broken....
I show it broken on both a print and closing basis on December 20, and boy, am I glad that you didn't show me this stock after the close on December 19 because I would have been a buyer the morning of December 20, and immediately would have been stopped out that day for a loss.
>:( >:( >:(
Let me explain:
1. The up trendline that you mentioned was validated to the exact penny on November 16, at 2.10. November 17, the stock remained a half penny above the trendline. Nice.
2. November 23, we got a print high of 2.51, very near the previous high of 2.50, then got a three day selloff. We then were looking at an Ascending Triangle, with the flat top at 2.50-2.51.
3. We got the upside breakout on November 30 on very good volume.
4. We got a Breakaway Gap the next day, after the Ascending Triangle breakout. Great!
5. For the next two weeks, consolidation, and a rollover to the downside, back to the top of the Ascending Triangle, with a close right at 2.51 on December 19. It's better if the breakaway gap
doesn't get filled, but a re-test of the breakout is okay. In fact, that's often an excellent entry into a stock.
6. But, if we bought the 2.51 close, look at the December 20 candlestick! YUK... >:(
I would have had to stop that out. We've seen a lot of those breakouts and then breakdowns this year. Frustrating.
And, now, JDSU is back above the 2.50-2.51 breakout! ???
JDSU might go ahead and make that 3.26 Ascending Triangle target that is IN PLAY, but geez, I hate to play stocks that "done me wrong," like this one would have done had I bought that 2.50-2.51 re-test on December 19.
Here's one for observation only since its under $5.00, but it seems to have the elements that we're looking for. Nice symmetry.
Waves 1 and 3 are 11 days apart.
Waves 3 and 5 are 10 days apart.
The slope of the bottom of the channel is 0.012
The slope of the top of the channel is 0.0133
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 23, 2005, 03:11:57 AM
I don't think that we can ignore the high of 2.50 on October 5, and arbitrarily start Wave 1 the next day, as you did. Otherwise, it sure has the right look to it. Applause for your efforts.
And, now, JDSU is back above the 2.50-2.51 breakout! ???
JDSU might go ahead and make that 3.26 Ascending Triangle target that is IN PLAY, but geez, I hate to play stocks that "done me wrong," like this one would have done had I bought that 2.50-2.51 re-test on December 19.
Thanks Melf................I know I can count on you for the technical analysis. I was trying very hard whether to consider this an ascending triangle as you say (by connecting the high of 2.50 on October 5th) or just make the chart look like a wolfewave. I decided on the latter :-\ This is a classic example of making something of nothing as people would say.
I came across this chart because my brother was asking me what he should do with it. Here's my answer: I told him to hold unless it closes below the the ascending support line. What do you think?
Quote from: thai626 on December 23, 2005, 01:59:30 PM
I was trying very hard whether to consider this an ascending triangle as you say (by connecting the high of 2.50 on October 5th) or just make the chart look like a wolfewave. I decided on the latter :-\ This is a classic example of making something of nothing as people would say.
thai,
No problem. We've probably all been seeing WWs everywhere that they don't exist since calven got us started. I know I have. ;D
Quote
I came across this chart because my brother was asking me what he should do with it. Here's my answer: I told him to hold unless it closes below the the ascending support line. What do you think?
That's where I'd stop it out. The problem is, it already closed below it on December 20. ???
Since it's back above the 2.50-2.51 top of the Ascending Triangle (it closed right at 2.51), your brother might have dodged a bullet on a false breakdown to 2.39. I wouldn't want to see JDSU go below that 2.39 low of December 20, though.
Good luck to your brother with it. Tell him if he makes any $$$ he has to share it with you. If he loses on it, that's
his loss. :D
Hey guys,
Havent stopped in here in a while. Been busy with the hollidays coming up,working on my website, scheduling , time with family, buying presents etc....hustle and bustle
Love the work that has been going on! DESC looks like a sure thing at this point. I hope to buy some at that 1-4 line. STEM also looks like it could be making a WW. FORD dropped a ton today - over 30%. I think it will hit that bottom trendline, if it hasnt already. I really like FORD once all this selling is done. Could be a good buying opportunity 1-2 months from now.
Glad to see the follower of this thread have grown in numbers. Much thanks to David for including it in the 3sof newsletter...Will check back here regularly after x-mas. Have a merry christmas everyone!
ho- ho- ho
cal >:D
HOM looks to have the elements of a Wolfe Wave.
1. After valdating T1 (Trendline 1) on August 18, HOM went on a rip to the upside, which also is our required lead-in to the Wolfe Wave.
2. During the late September to mid-October consolidation, a bullish Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green on the chart) formed, putting 6.63 IN PLAY.
3. Interestingly, after Waves 1,2,3, and 4 of the Wolfe Wave formed, the November 14 "Gap To Crap" high was 6.60, within three cents of the target (Suggestion: when you get a gap opening like that, very near a target, and very near a trendline as well, take the money. "Sell into strength.").
4. Also of interest is the fact that, if we shorted the "Gap To Crap" at the top of the Wolfe Wave on November 14, thinking that we might not get the "false breakout" that we often see in a Wave 5, we would have had a problem because we did get the false breakout five days later (and the 6.63 target ended up getting MADE).
We would have had a problem being short because we would have been staring at what appeared to be a Breakaway Gap to the upside on November 21, and HOM was printing new highs. That's a scary postion to be in, if you're short.
I'm coming to feel that these WW patterns are much better when you do get the false breakouts, or the false breakdowns, because that's where you really get the imbalance that calven has discussed.
At Wave 5 on this chart, anyone buying the upside breakout got it wrong, and the shorts, who were staring at an upside Breakaway Gap at the open and a new high in the stock, and who covered their shorts, covered at exactly the wrong time!
The proverbial "everyone" was buying, both longs and shorts alike, and "everyone" is caught off balance in a Wave 5 move like this one, if you see what I mean. I think that element is the key to why we see such powerful moves from Wave 5 to Wave 6, as calven has shown us. It seems not only to be an "imbalance," but players are caught "off balance."
While the false move at Wave 5 isn't required, I think it's better if we get it for that reason.
5. HOM hasn't gone to the target at Wave 6, (which remains to be seen), but if we had used the low (6.60) of the false breakout at Wave 5 as our "Sell Short" pivot, the gain on the short trade at the recent lows at T1 support would have been as much as 30%. Not bad.
6. Currently, HOM is finding nice support at T1 and has put in a double-bottom at 4.55-4.56. The last three sessions have been bullish hammers, so it looks like it wants to rally. If it can hold that T-1 support, then take out the middle of the "W" by printing 5.21, HOM has some "head room" to rally, at least to 5.50-5.54 resistance, or to the "W"-bottom target of 5.84. Short-term view.
5.50 and 5.51 were the lows prior to the drop to T1.
5.54 is the 50DMA, which has flattened out and has rolled over slightly.
Happy holidays to everyone!
Good call melf.... I see ,,also i probably wont play one of these guys unless we get the false breakout . Almost everyone ive seen hits the mark,, but the ones that dont ( break the trend line ) seem to make the mark only 60 % or so of the time. Where as i have yet to see one that breaks not make the mark( not that they dont ). Sorry for the bad english.
Good trading to ya tonyg
clst :o
Two Wolf wave patterns:
1st chart: REDF, bearish wolfwave
2nd chart: AXJ, bullish wolfwave
Hi,
I applaud you nasdaqtrading for your charts and specially FMDAY...
We have also a double bottom...Good signal for a reverse ! ;)
Great great...Two chart pattern !
Some help....HDY a Wolfwave pattern ? Or not ? :(
Thanks for your help (my first try with this pattern...)
SLB broke below a Bearish Wolfe Wave yesterday. The bottom of the WW was 99.20. The print high on the day was 99.27, prior to the tank to a low of 95.83 and a close of 97.10.
SLB is rallying back toward the broken WW today. It's currently BID 98.18...ASK 98.20, up $1.10 on the day.
If this is a valid WW, and if it plays out, the downside target is the low 90s.
ctlm patience required on this one if you bought on the down slid :-\
Hope everyone had a great christmas! Im back in action again. You guys sure have made some progress in this thread. I'd like to thank all of you for your contributions! ;D
Also I want to remind you to not search so much for ww's. They are either there or they are not. DESC is probably the best bear WW so far. Some of the WW's posted on here are a "stretch" - I think CTLM would be an example...
These WW patterns are extremely sensitive. Basically im trying to say that if the pattern isnt blatent, then its probably not tradeable....
Stick to the diagrams and the key points...
1) Correct Trend (and lead in)
2) Symmetry ( the more the better)
3) 12345 points all in channel
4) point 5 is a false breakout (usually) and must re-enter the previous channel
5) points 5 and 6 are tradeable points
6) if its not blatent it will be difficult to trade.
Great work all. I have a lot of applauds to dish out!!!
Note: I am looking to buy DESC at the 1-4 line. It has more room to go....eyeballing the line I would give it another month and a projected entry of 5.50 -
Cal >:D
Quote from: calven on December 30, 2005, 03:52:12 AM
Also I want to remind you to not search so much for ww's. They are either there or they are not. DESC is probably the best bear WW so far. Some of the WW's posted on here are a "stretch"
calven,
That's a good reminder. I think we're all seeing WWs where they don't exist. ;)
QuoteStick to the diagrams and the key points...
1) Correct Trend (and lead in)
2) Symmetry ( the more the better)
3) 12345 points all in channel
4) point 5 is a false breakout (usually) and must re-enter the previous channel
5) points 5 and 6 are tradeable points
6) if its not blatent it will be difficult to trade.
Good reminders. Applause. For one thing, it seems that we're having a problem with #1.
Correct me if I'm wrong, Calven, but what I'm trying to do is focus on:
1. Start #1 at the end of a lead-in.
2. If the lead-in was down, start #1 at the end of the down move, and the Wofle Wave pattern also should be down. (QTWW example below).
DOWN IS BULLISH3. If the lead-in pattern was up, start #1 at the end of the up move, and the Wolfe Wave pattern also should be up (calven's DESC example, which I'll post next).
UP IS BEARISHI like therman's QTWW Wolfe Wave. Upside potential of better than 100% gain to the $6.00ish target area.
What bothers me, though, is that after the false breakdown at #5, QTWW rallied back inside the Wolfe Wave, which looked fine, but then QTWW fell back below the WW.
I'm not sure if we should consider that to be a failure, or what? ???
Maybe it's still okay, if we use the low of #5 as a stop? ???
At any rate, QTWW rallied back inside the Wolfe Wave yesterday. It's on my watch list.
Quote
Quote
DESC: Bearish Wolfe Wave
1. Lead-in was UP.
2. Start #1 at the end of the lead-in
3. Pattern is UP, matching the lead-in, which was UP.
(calven: please correct any of my stuff if it's wrong, or we're really going to be confused) ???
SLB - Bearish Wolfe Wave
1. Lead-in was UP.
2. Start Wave #1 at the end of the lead-in.
3. Wolfe Wave pattern is UP, matching the lead-in
4. Upside fakeout at #5
SLB has been a nice short the past couple of days on rallies back to $99-ish, the bottom of the broken Bearish Wolfe Wave/Bearish Rising Wedge. SLB rallied back to 98.93 yesterday after inventory numbers were released, then sold off again.
I'd cover above 99.27 and the dotted red down trendline, to protect against an upside Bull Flag breakout.
QQQQ - Completed Bullish Wolfe Wave
1. Lead-in was DOWN
2. Start Wave #1 at the end of the Lead-in
3. Wolfe Wave Pattern was DOWN (albeit, only slightly. Nice symmetry, though)
4. Downside fakeout at Wave #5
5. Upside target at #6 fell shy by just a few pennies on November 23.
6. "Mini" H&S Top after rally to #6.
7. Broken neckline of the "Mini" H&S Top re-tested after the break.
8. "Mini" H&S Top target of 40.30 still is IN PLAY. Yesterday's low was 40.65
HOM - Bearish Wolfe Wave
1. Lead-in was UP
2. Start Wave #1 at the end of the lead-in
3. Wolfe Wave pattern is UP, matching the lead-in
4. Upside fakeout at Wave #5
5. "W"bottom possibility for a rally back to the bottom of the broken Wolfe Wave failed.
6. The failed "W" bottom trendline has been resistance for the past two days.
GIGM - Bearish Wolfe Wave
1. Lead-in was UP
2. Start Wave #1 at the end of the Lead-in
3. Wolfe Wave is UP, matching the Lead-in
4. Intraday upside fakeouts at #5
6. Horizontal support (black line) at 2.79 is holding
7. Possible Bullish Symmetrical Triangle (Purple) breakout, above 2.79 support area.
Despite the Bearish Wolfe Wave, the trend is up and with the Symmetrical Triangle forming above 2.79 support, I wouldn't want to short this one (even if we could).
I also don't like the long side because of the Bearish Wolfe Wave, and because the technicals have weakened. MACD double-topped, and just ticked below the signal line.
Watch...
"Lead ins"..... - the WW's need to agree with the trend...
Shown below are the diagrams. You can see that I drew in the lead in with a slightly darker line. (the first line entering the channel)
Hey guys, don't forget about the COMPX (nasdaq)
The compx also is trading in a WW!
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3779.15
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 30, 2005, 08:38:08 AM
QQQQ - Completed Bullish Wolfe Wave
8. "Mini" H&S Top target of 40.30 still is IN PLAY. Yesterday's low was 40.65
Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.
Basis the 5-minute chart, the QQQQ has formed an Ascending Triangle (breakout is 40.59). The bottom of the triangle has been validated with 3 hits, and we've also got a bull flag late this afternoon. Looks like it wants to break out.
The bottom of the Bull Flag/3rd Hit to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle is 40.44.
Note: I am looking to buy DESC at the 1-4 line. It has more room to go....eyeballing the line I would give it another month and a projected entry of 5.50 -
Cal >:D
Quote
hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 30, 2005, 03:53:44 PM
Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.
Basis the 5-minute chart, the QQQQ has formed an Ascending Triangle (breakout is 40.59). The bottom of the triangle has been validated with 3 hits, and we've also got a bull flag late this afternoon. Looks like it wants to break out.
The bottom of the Bull Flag/3rd Hit to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle is 40.44.
No breakout. The QQQQ was trading at the top of the day's trading range at the end of the day, looking like it might put in a Bullish Hammer, but it got sold off into the close, broke 40.44, and closed near the low of the day.
A Bullish Hammer would have given us the chance of an upside Bullish Island Reversal, but Friday's candlestick, if anything, is looking more like we'll test the Bullish Wolfe Wave breakout (horizontal blue line).
Quote from: rickjust on December 31, 2005, 12:28:30 PM
hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi
maxi,
I was studying calven's chart this morning and thinking that DESC looks like it's in an Elliott Wave 4
A-B-C rally back to, or near, the bottom of broken Wolfe Wave.
I'll post you a chart in the DESC folder on the Former 3SOF Board, in case any other members are following it, and might miss it in this folder. Not to complicate the 3SOF site with more boards, but we almost need an entire Wolfe Wave board with individual stock folders. I'm starting to lose track of the stocks are that we've been discussing, which is why I've done a few "reposts" to individual stock folders.
Quote from: rickjust on December 31, 2005, 12:28:30 PM
Note: I am looking to buy DESC at the 1-4 line. It has more room to go....eyeballing the line I would give it another month and a projected entry of 5.50 -
Cal >:D
Quote
hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi
Hey maxi,
Although probability trading favors a short position at these levels on DESC it seems to me as if the majoriy of the bear WW move is over. DESC could theoretically consolidate and the 1-4 WW line would actually gradually rise. Furthermore, energy could take off as 2006 crude oil prices are already projected higher. This would certainly boost DESC.
At this point I would say a good risk/reward ratio for shorting DESC just isnt there anymore. The opportunity for that would have been just after point 5 on the WW chart. I would suggest you wait and buy long down at the 1-4 WW line.
What do the rest of your guys think?
Thanks
Cal >:D
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 31, 2005, 03:20:01 PM
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 30, 2005, 03:53:44 PM
Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.
Basis the 5-minute chart, the QQQQ has formed an Ascending Triangle (breakout is 40.59). The bottom of the triangle has been validated with 3 hits, and we've also got a bull flag late this afternoon. Looks like it wants to break out.
The bottom of the Bull Flag/3rd Hit to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle is 40.44.
No breakout. The QQQQ was trading at the top of the day's trading range at the end of the day, looking like it might put in a Bullish Hammer, but it got sold off into the close, broke 40.44, and closed near the low of the day.
A Bullish Hammer would have given us the chance of an upside Bullish Island Reversal, but Friday's candlestick, if anything, is looking more like we'll test the Bullish Wolfe Wave breakout (horizontal blue line).
Quote from: rickjust on December 31, 2005, 12:28:30 PM
hi calven,
fascinating thread. looking at desc , and an entry at 5.50 . would you still short it at this point until it hits 5.50ish?
thanks
maxi
maxi,
I was studying calven's chart this morning and thinking that DESC looks like it's in an Elliott Wave 4
A-B-C rally back to, or near, the bottom of broken Wolfe Wave.
I'll post you a chart in the DESC folder on the Former 3SOF Board, in case any other members are following it, and might miss it in this folder. Not to complicate the 3SOF site with more boards, but we almost need an entire Wolfe Wave board with individual stock folders. I'm starting to lose track of the stocks are that we've been discussing, which is why I've done a few "reposts" to individual stock folders.
I wonder if the 3SOF staff would consider creating a special section for stocks making WW's. It would help us better organize and keep track of these patterns. Maybe a "bear ww" and "bull ww" thread. I think that as this thread grows in popularity it might be warranted to create its own section on this message board. If enough people agreed with this idea David might be willing to do something like this. Anyways, off to celebrate the New Year. Happy holidays all!
Cal >:D
thanks melf elf and calven,
will be checking the desc thread,
maxi
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 30, 2005, 03:53:44 PM
QQQQ - Completed Bullish Wolfe Wave
8. "Mini" H&S Top target of 40.30 still is IN PLAY. Yesterday's low was 40.65
Today's low was 40.36, within six cents of the target.
Quote
After filling Friday's 40.65 gap at the open this morning, the 40.30 target MADE at 10:23AM.
hi melf elf,
low of 40.16 but rallied back to the 40.50s. is this still a good short ?
Quote from: rickjust on January 03, 2006, 12:05:19 PM
hi melf elf,
low of 40.16 but rallied back to the 40.50s. is this still a good short ?
maxi,
In my view, the place to short it was the neckline break, or the re-test of the neckline. Now that the 40.30 target has been MADE, while the QQQQ certainly could go lower, I view it as "take profits on shorts," or at least partial profits when targets get MADE. Just the way that I play.
The NASDAQ also made the Bear Flag/(H&S Top?) target of 2192.28 this morning. The low was 2189.90. Again, it could go lower, but I'm a little bit doubtful about this WW since Wave 5 didn't go above the top of the channel for the "false breakout." The WWs seem to work better if you get the false breakout, but I don't have enough experience with it.
thanks,
max
maxi,
You're welcome. The NASDAQ has reversed 45 pts. to the upside after making that 2192.28 target, so you see what I mean about it being a good idea to take profits at targets. Prices often go farther than the target or fall shy, but it's not a bad idea to "take what's given."
The QQQQ now is trading at BID 41.14...ASK 41.15 after making and exceeding the 40.30 target.
COMPX bounced off the 1-4 line!
1-4 line touched...then the FED indicates no more interest rate hikes in the near future.
amazing...
Looks like the COMPX may try for the 1-4 line of the first WW!
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 20, 2005, 07:30:44 AM
Wayne (or anybody else),
I've been trying to work with the Wolfe Wave formula for Metastock. For Column A, I started with...
Pa:=Trough(4,LOW,5);
...per the instructions below.
When I got to the end of Column A, I got this prompt: "please array e.g HIGH, LOW, CLOSE, etc., or function expected." I didn't know what to put, so I put HIGH at the end of Column A. Anybody know if that was right?
When I ran the Explorer program, I got the message "no securites to report."
I included QTWW, EQR, QQQQ, SPX, COMPX and a few others in the test, figuring that one of those would show up as a WW. None did.
Here's the formula that I entered, according to the link that you gave us, Wayne:
Here's a simple Metastock exploration for locating Wolf Wave patterns. It doesn't hit all that often, but when it does, it's best to pay attention.
ColA: WW
Pa:=Trough(4,LOW,5);
Pb:=Peak(3,HIGH,5);
P1:=Trough(3,LOW,5);
P2:=Peak(2,HIGH,5);
P3:=Trough(2,LOW,5);
P4:=Peak(1,HIGH,5);
P5:=Trough(1,LOW,5);
tb:=TroughBars(1,LOW,5);
tb<=4 AND
p1 > pa AND
pb < p2 AND
p1 < p2 AND
p1 < p4 AND
p1 > p3 AND
p3 > p5 AND
p4 < p2 AND
Here's where I got the prompt to put HIGH, LOW, CLOSE or expected function.
ColB: Tangents
p1:=Trough(3,LOW,5);
p3:=Trough(2,LOW,5);
p5:=Trough(1,LOW,5);
o1:=p1-p3;
o2:=p1-p5;
a1:=TroughBars(3,LOW,5)-TroughBars(2,LOW,5);
a2:=TroughBars(3,LOW,5)-TroughBars(1,LOW,5);
tan1:=o1/a1;
tan2:=o2/a2;
Abs(tan1-tan2)
Filter:
colA AND colB <= .2
Hi Melf,
I did get a chance to play around with MetaStock and got the same error message as you indicated.
Column B seems to be ok but Column A has either incomplete or missing command at the very last last line. The last line in column A seems to has missing instructions or has too many syntax.
What I did was that I deleted the "AND" syntax. So the last line in column A is simply:
p4 < p2
Retesting that I got no error. I do not have much stock to query so I cannot test the validity of this formula. If you have a lot of stocks in the portfolio give it a shot.
Let me know what you find. According to the formula writer, the code doesn't hit all that often, but when it does, it's best to pay attention. I guess we won't be able to verify the validity of the code until we can get a hit.
Quote from: rurouni on January 10, 2006, 10:32:23 AM
Column B seems to be ok but Column A has either incomplete or missing command at the very last last line. The last line in column A seems to has missing instructions or has too many syntax.
Wayne,
I didn't have a problem with Column B either.
Quote
What I did was that I deleted the "AND" syntax. So the last line in column A is simply:
p4 < p2
Okay, I didn't get an error message, so that works...
if the formula is correct. :D
Quote
Retesting that I got no error. I do not have much stock to query so I cannot test the validity of this formula. If you have a lot of stocks in the portfolio give it a shot.
I have a lot of stocks, but I have to load them individually to test the WW formula. >:(
QuoteLet me know what you find. According to the formula writer, the code doesn't hit all that often, but when it does, it's best to pay attention. I guess we won't be able to verify the validity of the code until we can get a hit.
Okay. I'll work on it. I'll let you know if I get a hit. Thanks for your efforts, Wayne. Applause.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 11, 2006, 09:58:18 AM
I have a lot of stocks, but I have to load them individually to test the WW formula.
Okay. I'll work on it. I'll let you know if I get a hit. Thanks for your efforts, Wayne. Applause.
Hi Melf,
Thanks for the applause. In the explorer windows what you can do is highlight all the stocks in your portfolio by highlighting the first symbol on the list then hold down the 'shift' key AND the 'page down' key. OR simply highlight all the stocks by using the mouse. Then run the exploration and it will scan through all the selected stocks. ;)
RHAT may have a bearish wolvewave formation. It's been in a solid uptrend for quite a while now. I, personally will not short this stock. The risk/reward ratio just isn't there for me in this trade. Just thought it might be a good case study if it is a valid wolvewave pattern.
Happy trading eveyone. May 2006 be a prosperous year for you!
Thai
Hmmm.......TARGET PRICE = $27.5 (I'm not sure why the .5 didn't print out on the chart)
Quote from: rurouni on January 11, 2006, 11:59:23 AM
In the explorer windows what you can do is highlight all the stocks in your portfolio by highlighting the first symbol on the list then hold down the 'shift' key AND the 'page down' key. OR simply highlight all the stocks by using the mouse. Then run the exploration and it will scan through all the selected stocks. ;)
Wayne,
Applause for that good hint. You reminded me of something that worked: click on the the first symbol, then hold down Shift and Ctrl at the same time, then click on the last symbol on the list. That lights up all of the stocks, and I could add them that way. Thanks!
That's the good news. The bad news is that I have 400 stocks and indices loaded now, and got NO Wolfe Wave patterns when I ran it. :D
I don't know if that means that there weren't any. or that the formula is wrong. We'll just have to keep running the Explorer every day and see if we get one.
Thanks a lot for your help, Wayne.
Quote from: thai626 on January 13, 2006, 01:36:47 AM
RHAT may have a bearish wolvewave formation. It's been in a solid uptrend for quite a while now. I, personally will not short this stock. The risk/reward ratio just isn't there for me in this trade. Just thought it might be a good case study if it is a valid wolvewave pattern.
thai,
I don't think that it is because your Wave 1-4 bisect slopes upward. I think it has to slope downward on a Bearish Wolfe, but I'm not positive about that.
??? ??? ???
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 13, 2006, 06:16:51 AM
The bad news is that I have 400 stocks and indices loaded now, and got NO Wolfe Wave patterns when I ran it. :D
I don't know if that means that there weren't any. or that the formula is wrong. We'll just have to keep running the Explorer every day and see if we get one.
Thanks for your applause again Melf. I will keep running it and let you know if there is any hit. Also, I will keep an eye for more metastock wolfwave formula.
Quote from: rurouni on January 13, 2006, 09:20:49 PM
I will keep running it and let you know if there is any hit. Also, I will keep an eye for more metastock wolfwave formula.
Wayne,
Thanks, I'll do the same. I just ran the Explore, and when I got the results (there were none), I noticed a "Rejects" tab on the Results page, so I looked in there to see what that was. Here's a sample of what I got:
Security Name Reason for Rejection Location
EQUITY RESOURCES
Filter reference to N/A value in column A. C:\DATA\stocks\nyse
QUANTUM FUEL SYS TECH
Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
NASDAQ COMP Filter reference to N/A value in column A. C:\DATA\Indices
QQQQ Filter reference to N/A value in column A. C:\DATA\Indices
APPLE COMPUTER Filter reference to N/A value in column A. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
ABLE ENERGY Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
AFFYMETRIX Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
APPLIED MATERIALS Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
AMGEN Filter reference to N/A value in column A. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
AMAZON Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
ARIBA Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
BEACON POWER Normal filter rejection. C:\DATA\stocks\NAZ
The "normal filter rejection" would seem to suggest that our formula was fine, and that there just weren't any WWs. The "Filter reference to N/A value in column A" would seem to suggest that we've still got a problem with what we have plugged in to column A.
It's strange that I got about an equal amount of both reasons for the rejection when I have the same formula plugged in for all of the stocks. Go figger, huh? ???
Anyway, I'll continue to run it, and I'll let you know if I get any bites. Or, is that bytes? :D
Thanks again for all of your help.
Wait for a return to the previous WW support line... then load up on tech again...
Melf Elf and other DESC "stalkers"
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1833.msg42712#msg42712
Quote from: calven on January 21, 2006, 02:21:53 AM
Wait for a return to the previous WW support line... then load up on tech again...
cal,
Thanks for all of your work on the Wolfe Waves. Applause.
It looks like we completed 5 waves up off the October low, right at your Wolfe Wave bisect, and within 6 points of the Wave 4 Bull Flag target.
Sorry, this is one of those charts that looks like I threw a pizza at it. :D
My read is that late November to early January was "tricky" because it was a Wave 4 A-B-C correction, and that's usually the nature of those beasts. A lot of pattern "morphing," or "changing."
1. In red, we had the Bear Flag/H&S Top. The break measured to 2192.28, which we MADE at the January 3 low.
2. In blue, we had your Wolfe Wave.
3. In green, we had a Bull Flag, the bottom of which was at the January 3 low.
So, at the January 3 low, we had a confluence of:
a. Bear Flag/H&S Top MADE.
b. Your Wolfe Wave
c. The bottom of the Wave 4 (A-B-C) Bull Flag
I drew the 5 Wave structure off the October low beneath the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, where I only show Wave 4 as the Bull Flag, without all of the "pizza stuff" that also was going on during Wave 4.
I'll post that chart next.
5 Wave Structure off the October low is drawn beaneath the chart.
EDIT: Sorry, that was the wrong chart. This should be right.
Hey guys I am not able to post the chart right now but if somebody can post a chart of XMSR.
You will see a great WW forming.
12/08 point 1
12/15 2
1/3 3
1/11 4
point 5 around 26.50 current price27.17
Check this out. AXJ Weekly - 2 years, or daily - 6 mos.
YES! Great find - Im in from .57
Lets rock n roll! >:D
Quote from: akclide on January 25, 2006, 10:27:28 PM
Hey guys I am not able to post the chart right now but if somebody can post a chart of XMSR.
You will see a great WW forming.
12/08 point 1
12/15 2
1/3 3
1/11 4
point 5 around 26.50 current price27.17
Sorry Sir I don't see a WW forming with XMSR.
Thai - Melf was right. You don't have the right lead in trend for that to be a WW.
cal >:D
Quote
Thai - Melf was right. You don't have the right lead in trend for that to be a WW.
cal >:D
Quote
Cal,
Are you referring to RHAT?? It was the correct lead in but the only thing in question was whether the target line can be positive in a bearish wolvewave. If it can't, then it's not a true wolvewave. However, the target of $27.5 did hit in recent days. Happy Trading!!
Quote from: Tirebldr on November 23, 2005, 04:00:15 PM
Applaud Calven. Fantastic Tutorial.. Belongs in a book somewhere's so it doesn't get misplaced .
I took your advice...I am writing an e-book tutorial on the Wolfwave pattern. Expect it to be completed next week. I didnt start this thread for this purpose - but as long as its here and has AWESOME information I'd like to use it....see post below.
Thanks,
Cal >:D
To Active Members in this Thread -
As I mentioned above I am writing a comprehensive tutorial on the Wolfwave pattern to be "published" and eventually put up for sale either as part of a hardcopy or sold as an "ebook" on the internet. Before I go ahead writing some of the sections I wanted to ask permission for rights to reproduce the content existing in this thread in the tutorial. I am asking your permission to include all or parts of your individual posts and possibly your "handles" in the tutorial. I will NOT be including any personal information of any of you, simply content dealing with questions or comments you have posted here.
If you could please let me know if you agree to this I would appreciate it as I would like to avoid being sued. (Email me with objections only) :
[email protected]Particulary relating to: Melf Elf (page 3 - dynamics behind the pattern posts) - Thai62 (charts) ScottishTrader (charts comments) - Agatto (charts comments) - Others I may have missed...
Thanks Everyone,
Cal >:D
I forget who asked me to post a chart on QTWW on December 30. Nice chart, but I forgot to watch it. QTWW broke out of the WW pattern on Monday on a breakaway gap. It's up another 5%. Anybody play it? I'll post that chart for review, then the updated chart next.
Quote from: calven on January 27, 2006, 01:46:54 AM
Particulary relating to: Melf Elf (page 3 - dynamics behind the pattern posts) - Thai62 (charts) ScottishTrader (charts comments) - Agatto (charts comments) - Others I may have missed...
Thanks Everyone,
Cal >:D
cal,
Feel free to use anything that I've written. Good luck with your publication!
Quote from: thai626 on January 26, 2006, 04:57:55 PM
Are you referring to RHAT?? It was the correct lead in but the only thing in question was whether the target line can be positive in a bearish wolvewave. If it can't, then it's not a true wolvewave.
thai,
The Wave 1-4 bisect (target line) has to slope down in a bearish WW. Also, it looks like an awkward place to start Wave #1. I could be wrong, but it seems that Wave #1 should start at the top of the big move up (the Lead-in), which would be the November 7 high, after the big move up from August. That doesn't turn out to be a WW, but if we choose some arbitrary high along the high, it seems like we're "forcing" the WW, if you know what I mean. I could be wrong about that, though. Applause for your effort.
Quote
However, the target of $27.5 did hit in recent days. Happy Trading!!
I don't recall Caven saying that we couldn't CHEAT to get our targets, do you? >:D ;D
Quote
Updated QTWW chart (as of yesterday's close). It's up 56% since December 30. Who asked me to post to this chart? Was it therman?
thai,
Here's what I meant. Wave 1 should start at the end of that big lead-in, not at some arbitrary point along the rally (calven, please correct me if that's wrong).
It doesn't work out. The trendline between Waves 2 and 4 is violated. The move to what would be Wave 5 looks much too strong to the "false move" that we're looking for.
Again, Calven, correct anything that is wrong. We've had enough confusion. ;D ???
You are absolutely correct in your analysis Melf Elf. (applause) I love the QTWW setup and I bought a small position in the stock (3.79) the day after it gapped up over the 2-4 resistance line - seeing as the DESC trade never panned out. I am trading the WW with QTWW with my target being just over 6.00 (1-4) line. My chart is almost a mirror image of the one you have above. I also bought AXJ at .57 as a result of the chart posted above. (applause) Again another winner... Up over 10%
I also appreciate you letting me use your "dynamics behind the WW" post and chart in my publication. Much appreciated.
Thanks,
Cal >:D
here are 4 charts that are looking good for WW pattern, Can somebody second it?.
PANL is not ready yet but close.
1st chart PANL
2nd chart UTI
3rd chart SGDE
4th chart SUG.
Quote from: akclide on January 27, 2006, 06:18:30 PM
here are 4 charts that are looking good for WW pattern, Can somebody second it?.
PANL is not ready yet but close.
1st chart PANL
2nd chart UTI
3rd chart SGDE
4th chart SUG.
akclide,
None of those looks like of WW, but applause for your effort. Same problem that we all have been having:
1. Wave #1 has to begin at the end of what I've been calling a "Lead-in," or a strong directional move. We can't choose some arbitrary spot to begin Wave #1.
2. The WW formation has to be in the same direction as the Lead-in.
3. The Wave #1-#4 bisect (the target line that gets us to #6) has to be in the OPPOSITE direction of both the Lead-in and the overall WW pattern formation.
Beyond that, it gets a little more sophisticated with finding Fibonacci relationships between the waves, but unless we have got those three elements, it isn't a Wolfe Wave. (
calven, please correct me if that's wrong).
I forget on what page calven posted sample charts and said, "If it doesn't look like this, it's not a WW," but it might be good to review those, and even print them out.
Using your PANL as an example, acklide, I've drawn below the chart what a WW would look like. Note where I began Wave #1. That's very important:
To start Wave #1, begin at the END of the Lead-in, which is a directional move. Then the WW pattern has to be in the SAME direction. That seems to be where we're getting it wrong, right off the bat.
On your PANL, what we've got is a Symmetrical Triangle and a breakout of that pattern.
Quote from: calven on January 27, 2006, 04:14:54 PM
I bought a small position in the stock (3.79) the day after it gapped up over the 2-4 resistance line - seeing as the DESC trade never panned out. I am trading the WW with QTWW with my target being just over 6.00 (1-4) line.
calven,
That's great! I need to figure out how to set up price alerts. I'm at Scottrade, and I'm afraid if I download their new Scottrade Elite that has alerts, I'll lose all of my boards...or, I won't like whatever the new configuration is. I like the one they have.
RE: QTWW, I'm thinking that you might run into resistance at 4.36-4.47, then right above that, at 4.48-4.52, and the stock is "ahead of itself" with the 50/200DMAs out of position.
Here's the 4.36-4.47. I'll show you the other on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart next.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 28, 2006, 06:59:10 AM
then right above that, at 4.48-4.52,
calven,
Basis the weekly chart, the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) is
4.48. The prior low, which also is the Wave #1 low, is
4.52 (horizontal resistance). Often, it's daunting for a stock to make much progress into the Kumo (Cloud), if any, on the first attempt. You can see evidence of that last February/March on this chart. Price penetrated it, but was repelled and the stock continued lower.
4.50 would be a 100% rally off the 2.25 November low. If QTWW isn't on fire with news (volume hasn't been that great on the breakout), it might need to back it up a bit and digest those gains, and let the 50DMA play catch-up, prior to mounting an attack into that Kumo (Cloud) resistance.
The bright side to any consolidation is that if your WW target is going to get MADE, the longer it takes to get there, the higher that Wave #1-#4 bisect (target line) rises every week.
;D >:D
Good luck! I'm glad that you caught this one.
Thanks Melfelf for your directions I think I get the point let's see if I can come up with something else may be a right one this time.
Quote from: akclide on January 29, 2006, 09:20:03 PM
Thanks Melfelf for your directions I think I get the point let's see if I can come up with something else may be a right one this time.
acklide,
Yes, keep trying. Your find of KOMG on page 3 was very nice, so you definitely have the right idea. Don't get discouraged. As calven said, these patterns are difficult to find becasue they don't occur real often. When we do find them, though, they should be obvious. Calven said, "If it isn't obvious, it isn't a Wolfe Wave."
IYou might also want to review my post at the bottom of page 3, to understand the psychological dynamics of the Wolfe Wave. In my view, "If just about everyone
isn't getting screwed (the false move to Wave #5), it isn't a Wolfe Wave."
;D ;D ;D
That's the "imbalance" of which calven spoke. At the false move to Wave #5, the market appears to have shown its hand and declared its intention about the direction that it wants to take, and
it's exactly wrong. Instead of being the beginning of a move down, its THE low. Or, instead of being the beginning of a move up, it's THE top. Most players are caught completely "off balance," looking in the wrong direction.
These Wolfe Waves are little devils, aren't they?
>:D ;D >:D
I forget who said something like, "The stock market is designed to disappoint the greatest number of people possible," and that certainly is a good description of what a Wolfe Wave does. That also helps us to understand better why the move from Wave #5 to Wave #6 is so dramatic and so profitable.
"The
least number of people possible recognize it, and play it correctly."
It sure would be fun if we all could catch one of these #5-#6 waves, wouldn't it?
;D ;D ;D
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 28, 2006, 06:59:10 AM
RE: QTWW, I'm thinking that you might run into resistance at 4.36-4.47, then right above that, at 4.48-4.52, and the stock is "ahead of itself" with the 50/200DMAs out of position.
QTWW charged through BOTH of those resistance levels right from the open. These WWs sure can be powerful.
QTWW currently is BID 4.66...ASK 4.68, up a very nice 11% on the day. Good for calven! ;D
Target of 6.50...
Will sell at 6.25 as I like dont want to get too picky...
800 shares @ 3.79
Sitting on 23% gains now -Trailing Stop at 4.00
fous' ACLS looks to be a Bullish Wolfe Wave. A pullback to the gap and the 200DMA might be a nice entry: 5.83-5.93. If this is the Bullish WW that it looks to be, it might not get that low, since these WW breakouts can be so powerful.
The "Lead In" isnt very strong on this one but it seems to fit the pattern...point 5 is also a false break. What do you guys think- maybe I am just seeing things...
ATAR
ATAR
The symmetry on my chart makes me dizzy - or it could be the black and tan I have been mixing up - I don't know. Cannot bisect the lines but might be a money maker anyway. i WILL CHECK WHEN i AM SOBER.
Quote from: calven on January 31, 2006, 03:45:16 PM
The "Lead In" isnt very strong on this one but it seems to fit the pattern...point 5 is also a false break. What do you guys think- maybe I am just seeing things...
ATAR
I don't think so Calven. There is no symmetry from what I can see. It's close but not quite. JMO though.
Melf Elf,
Is your name Melvin? It's weird calling you melf elf every time I write.............but o well. I second that ACLS......i'd say that's a wolvewave but what do I know.
Thai
QTWW doing NICELY!!! Already approaching the 1-4 line!!!
Quote from: calven on January 31, 2006, 03:45:16 PM
What do you guys think-
ATAR
calven,
I'd have to label that a "plain vanilla" broken Symmetrical Triangle, especially because the re-test of the pattern breakdown and the failure right there was so exact.
The H&S Top target MADE, so the bottom could be in, though. Possible "mini" Inverse H&S forming?
Quote from: nberski on January 31, 2006, 05:41:33 PM
. i WILL CHECK WHEN i AM SOBER.
Rule #87: NEVER try to look at a Wolfe Wave while sober. ;D >:D
Quote from: thai626 on January 31, 2006, 06:00:42 PM
It's weird calling you melf elf every time I write.............but o well. I second that ACLS......i'd say that's a wolvewave but what do I know.
Thai,
You can call me Melf. Or, you can call me Elf. Just don't call me late for dinner.
Badda bump! ;D
I dont know guys but I really think ATAR is forming a mini WW.
In other news: Friend of mine got hit by a roadside "IBD" bomb in Iraq yesterday. (while I was sleeping) Thank god he is still alive. Lost his right eye and half of his face. Terrible news, but its certainly better than losing him all together. Probably wont be around here much for the today and tomorrow. Good luck guys....
cal
Quote from: calven on February 01, 2006, 08:32:18 AM
I dont know guys but I really think ATAR is forming a mini WW.
In other news: Friend of mine got hit by a roadside "IBD" bomb in Iraq yesterday. (while I was sleeping) Thank god he is still alive. Lost his right eye and half of his face. Terrible news, but its certainly better than losing him all together. Probably wont be around here much for the today and tomorrow. Good luck guys....
cal
That is horrible news Calven. I'm sorry to hear that. People (especially the prez) don't really seem to care what happens in IRAQ. I bet if you throw his daughter there..........he'll have a different opinion. Usually, it takes an accident that hits close to home before they really understand the consequences of war.
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 01, 2006, 04:35:38 AM
Thai,
You can call me Melf. Or, you can call me Elf. Just don't call me late for dinner.
Badda bump! ;D
Ok.....I'll call you Melf. By the way, I don't eat Elves.............if you were Melf Duck, I can call you dinner. ;D
Cool......>Now I can <appluad>............................Let me applaud you guys Calven and Melf...you guys have done great analysis!
Any thoughts on yesterday's action on QTWW?
Bought in on Tues at 4.79, and everything look set for a solid run into $5+, then it just fell off the end of an intraday ascending triangle addn crashed out!! Big ugly red candlestick :P I see that it hit support at its low around 4.45. But it was real ugly.
I realise that after such a serious little run, at thee first sign of weaknes, holders are likely to take profits, but do you think it still has legs to make the target? (I suppose only time will tell, but is always nasty to see a nice little profit turn into a loss - was happening all over the place yesterday :-[)
Recent QTWW candles look terrible. I will continue to hold regardless: both as a testiment to my faith in the WW and because Im up so much percentage wise that I can afford to let this run...
In other news my friend "Andrew Neumeyer" lost an eye and part of his face. Hes getting a steel plate put in his skull to recontruct his face. I know one things for sure. I dont really care how he looks, I just want him home, safe and sounds. Hes been through enough - hes in stable condition and doing better but still not out of danger yet. Keep him in your prayers!
thanks
cal >:D
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 28, 2006, 07:24:27 AM
Often, it's daunting for a stock to make much progress into the Kumo (Cloud), if any, on the first attempt. You can see evidence of that last February/March on this chart. Price penetrated it, but was repelled and the stock continued lower.
calven,
That's a tough one!
QTWW went much farther into the Kumo (Cloud) on its first attermpt than I thought it would, but it has given back all of this week's gains. That was an ugly Bearish Engulfing candlestick on Wednesday, as Scotsman said, and it was on the heaviest volume since last June.
We'll see how it finishes this week, but as it stands, it looks like a Long-legged Doji Star reversal.
I'm very sorry to hear about your friend, Andrew. He is in my prayers.
This looks like a wolvewave to me. If you remember in a while ago, I did post this chart before but the wolvewave had not formed yet. This time, it looks like a pretty valid wolvewave pattern. Although we can't short this stock, I'm just posting it for those people who might want to sell it if it's in their portfolio. Good luck everyone!
P.S. The chart isn't drawn to scale, so it could possibly go a bit lower than my target point on the chart.
Quote from: thai626 on February 05, 2006, 08:32:26 PM
This looks like a wolvewave to me.
Thai,
I sure does. Applause.
Quote
If you remember in a while ago, I did post this chart before but the wolvewave had not formed yet.
I remember that the December 20 break below the Ascending Triangle had me stymied ("What is tha-aat?). "Tha-aat" turned into a Bullish Falliing Wedge. The 2.96 target MADE, then JDSU got to with four cents of the Ascending Triangle target of 3.26 that we had in December, at your Wave #5. That reinforces the idea that the stock could have finished there on the upside.
Quote
Although we can't short this stock, I'm just posting it for those people who might want to sell it if it's in their portfolio.
Good practice watching it play out, too. Thanks.
Quote
P.S. The chart isn't drawn to scale, so it could possibly go a bit lower than my target point on the chart.
It looks right to me.
Thanks a lot for this educational tutorial with pratical charts.
I have been following BRVO for so long and am wondering whether it is forming a WW pattern.
This chart appears to me at point 5 right now. Do you think we can place the bet if it breaks out from here?
Thanks,
mads888
Quote from: mads888 on February 07, 2006, 03:28:24 AM
This chart appears to me at point 5 right now. Do you think we can place the bet if it breaks out from here?
Thanks,
mads888
mads,
No, Wave 5 would be below Wave 3, and you don't have much of a Lead-in, which is fairly strong a directional move, at the end of which you begin Wave 1.
What
does look like a Wolfe Wave in Bravo is the pattern in green, beginning with the move down to the September 2 low. That's the Lead-in, and you would begin Wave 1 at the end of the Lead-in.
Notice that Wave 5 was below Wave 3, and it was a "fakeout" to the downside. This is a log chart, but on the linear chart, BRVO got to within about four cents of the Wave 6 target at the October high of $0.80.
Applause for your effort.
Mini WW on SIRI???
Quote from: calven on February 07, 2006, 05:07:38 PM
Mini WW on SIRI???
I was about to post exactly the same thing! You got my vote Calven on this wolvewave.
Appluase!
Thai
Think Im going to go in on this one.....even if its not a WW, it still made a downsloping trendline break which signals a bottom is VERY near...
cal >:D
(QTWW) still holding up nicely...
Quote from: calven on February 09, 2006, 11:18:01 PM
Think Im going to go in on this one.....even if its not a WW, it still made a downsloping trendline break which signals a bottom is VERY near...
cal >:D
calven,
SIRI sure looks like it meets the Basic Wolfe Wave 101 rules. ;D
The Wave 6 target is right near the 50/200DMAs, too, all at about 6.42-6.50.
We got a gap fill yesterday, and the close was a penny below the 13EMA.
From yesterday's close of 5.80, a rally to 6.50 is a 12% gain. The stop would be below the February 3 low of 5.23. The risk is a loss of 9.8%, so the risk/reward is lousy.
I'll have to think about where a good place would be to enter, to set up a better risk: reward.
???
Applause for the find. I think that the more we look at these and follow the "basic rules" on the chart below, the easier they will be to spot. Thanks for your comments in the GOOG folder on the Stock Picks Board. Wish I'd spotted that back in January.
>:(
Somebody backdoored 40 million shares of SIRI.... I think someone is "setting a bottom"
Look at the 5 day chart with volume spike... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SIRI&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=
I also think these shorts have made a nice profit and are going to cover very soon - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SIRI
I would have to disagree with you Melf, on this one...
I think Im going to buy in the high 5.60's if possible monday. I think this is a good trade!
Wish me luck... :D
cal >:D
hmmmm........Calven, you have to disagree with Melf?? I thought he agreed with you that this is a very nice wolvewave pattern. Anyways......good luck with the trade. I'm already invested with it for the long term.
Referring to the risk/reward part....
calven,
Feel free to disagree with an elf at any time. Obviously, you are a man who does not understand the true meaning of risk, nor do you value your own life.
Quote from: calven on February 11, 2006, 11:06:05 AM
Referring to the risk/reward part....
The risk part was that, in expressing disagreement, you have incurred a severe punishment, which I now shall mete out. I hereby sentence you to one week of staring at an intraday chart of BCON. You will watch it do
n-o-t-h-i-n-g, hour after hour after miserable hour, and you're not allowed to become bored to tears (i.e., actual crying is disallowed).
You will end up begging for mercy, like I have been doing for several weeks now.
STOP THE TORMENT >:D
Mon back...Mon back...
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 07, 2006, 09:22:38 AM
Quote from: mads888 on February 07, 2006, 03:28:24 AM
This chart appears to me at point 5 right now. Do you think we can place the bet if it breaks out from here?
Thanks,
mads888
mads,
No, Wave 5 would be below Wave 3, and you don't have much of a Lead-in, which is fairly strong a directional move, at the end of which you begin Wave 1.
What does look like a Wolfe Wave in Bravo is the pattern in green, beginning with the move down to the September 2 low. That's the Lead-in, and you would begin Wave 1 at the end of the Lead-in.
Notice that Wave 5 was below Wave 3, and it was a "fakeout" to the downside. This is a log chart, but on the linear chart, BRVO got to within about four cents of the Wave 6 target at the October high of $0.80.
Applause for your effort.
Thanks a lot for clarifying about BRVO Melf Elf. Applause to your efforts.
Mads888
Quote from: mads888 on February 12, 2006, 11:49:35 PM
Thanks a lot for clarifying about BRVO Melf Elf.
Mads888
You're welcome, Mads.
We never decided how we're going to keep track of the WWs that we identify. I guess it doesn't make any sense for us to start individual stock folders on the Technical Analysis board to follow the Wolfe Waves when a folder might already exist on The Stock Picking Board.
Maybe we could use this folder to identify and initially discuss the WWs, then post them on the Stock Picking Board in the appropriate folder, if one exists. Let's try to do a search before starting a new folder, though.
Calven and I have been following SIRI in that folder on The Stock Picking Board. We've also posted on ACLS and QTWW on that board in those folders.
Here's a WW on VPHM. I'll post this one on the 3SOF Members Board since its currently in that portfolio.
GIGM - Noticed this Bullish Wolfe Wave on the Hourly Chart late yesterday afternoon.
wow!
nice work melf. ! your good at finding these patterns. you make it look easy.
maxi
Applaud the work Melf... >:D
Beautiful!!
YESSSSIRRREEEE!
You should PM that to David. I heard he was covering NIHK for the 3sof premium members. It was being discussed in the chat.
Applaud the work thai!
Now just give QTWW a kick to the rear. It needs a jumpstart again...
How about another excellent wolvewave set up guys?? :P :P :P ;D ;D
Enjoy!
Another potential play! ;D
Thai,
You've gone gangbusters on those Wolfe Waves! :D Applause.
I finally got 3 Wolfe Waves over the past few weeks from my Metastock Explorer, but I didn't see how any of them looked like a Wolfe Wave, so I didn't post them.
They were DROOY and KLAC around February 16, and OSCI yesterday morning.
When the Metastock Explorer identifies a WW, it doesn't tell you anything else, like Bullish or Bearish, were the Waves are, etc. I looked at the daily and weekly charts...I couldn't see anything that look at all like what Calven has taught us.
Anyway, nice job!
Metastock Explorer identified a Wolfe Wave in DHB.
I had a heck of a time seeing it, but I think I've found it.
The lead-in is awful skimpy. In fact, the entire pattern is pretty skimpy, but I like the fact that the low of the Wave 5 "fakeout" held above the trendline (solid green horizontal line) from the December 2, 2005 breakout.
DHB received a $54 million order from the Army on March 3 (story below). I'll repost this in the DHB folder on the Previous Stock Picks Board so we can keep track of individual stocks that we discuss.
Updated:2006-03-03 09:48:20
DHB Industries Gets $54 Million Army Pact
AP
WESTBURY, N.Y. (AP) - DHB Industries Inc., maker of body armor and athletic padding, on Friday said its subsidiary Point Blank Armor has received a $54 million order from the Army for its Interceptor protective vest.
The vest protects the torso and can be worn alongside other protective outerwear. On Feb. 22, the DHB received a $14 million order from the Army for its Deltoid Axillary Protection System, which provides protection for arm and shoulder areas not covered by the Interceptor vest.
Shares of DHB were up 25 cents, or 5.5 percent to $4.82 in morning trading on the American Stock Exchange. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $2.76 to $12.85.
Applause Melf!
DHB looks like a valid wolfewave. Although the lead in is skimpy, I'm not sure if it's absolutely necessary. This one goes in my folder of wolfewaves because I want to keep track of how many actually pann out and why certain ones don't. Thanks for the heads up!! Keep it comin!! >:D ;D ;D :)
Thai
Okay folks - I dont know what to make of GW but something about it makes me see a WW
Need some help on this one...thoughts???
Quote from: thai626 on March 05, 2006, 05:40:15 PM
DHB looks like a valid wolfewave. Although the lead in is skimpy, I'm not sure if it's absolutely necessary.
Thai,
I'm not sure about that lead-in, but since the Metastock Explorer is programmed with the formula (thanks again to Wayne for helping me wth that), and they've identified it as a valid Wolfe Wave, it must meet the requiredments.
I still think it looks weak, though. I don't like Friday's gap from 4.57-4.68 and the candlestick is a Bearish Inverted Hangman.
The high on Friday was 4.91. The top of the Kumo (Cloud) on Friday was 4.935, so DHB backed off from there, and closed at 4.77. That's looking like the gap is going to get filled.
Quote
This one goes in my folder of wolfewaves because I want to keep track of how many actually pann out and why certain ones don't
Great. I'm real interested in seeing how they work out, too.
Quote
Thanks for the heads up!! Keep it comin!! >:D ;D ;D :)
Yeah, I have to remember to run the Explorer every day. I've forgotten to do that quite a few times. It would be great if The Explorer would give us some nice ones. It gave me DROOY and KLAC around February 16, but for the life of me, I couldn't see a Wolfe Wave.
The Explorer only tells you that there's a WW, but it doesn't identify the waves, how big it is, etc. For each day, it gives a number called "tang..." I don't know if that means "tangent," or what.
??? ??? ???
It will look something like this.
Feb 1 ...0.0014
Feb 2...0.0014
Feb 5...0.0014
Feb 6...0.0014
Feb 7...0.0026
I figured that since the number changed on Feb 7, that must identify a wave, but it doesn't correlate to anything that looks to me like a Wolfe Wave. That's why I had trouble seeing this little WW in DHB.
??? ??? ???
Anyway, if I get any more from the Explorer, I'll post it, and maybe we can figure it out. ;D
Here's a close-up of the DHB Wolfe Wave.
Quote from: calven on March 06, 2006, 02:12:51 AM
Okay folks - I dont know what to make of GW but something about it makes me see a WW
Need some help on this one...thoughts???
cal,
Where do you think the lead-in and the waves are? ???
Successful Wolfewave ;)
Quote from: thai626 on March 09, 2006, 05:16:41 PM
Successful Wolfewave ;)
Maybe not! I looked at this a little more closely and I don't have anything on record that says that SVA ever traded over 4.5. Must be an error in stockchart.com charting software.
Excuse my last post.
Thai
Quote from: thai626 on March 09, 2006, 06:25:04 PM
Maybe not! I looked at this a little more closely and I don't have anything on record that says that SVA ever traded over 4.5. Must be an error in stockchart.com charting software.
Thai,
Just after I recently said to someone that I use Reuters and that I haven't noticed too many mistakes, they're showing the same thing as your chart, but another source I looked at shows the high at only about 4.00.
Thanks for being so thorough. I wouldn't have noticed the mistake. Applause.
Calvin and Melf Elf,
I think VPHM is still in play, what do you think?
What about this one?
Doesn't this one look like it's ready for a short trade very soon?
/Minimunch
Minimunch,
I don't really see a WW here because the "lead in" doesnt fit. In order for a WW to work there has to essentially be overbuying or overselling...DRIV pretty much has neither.
I'd like to offer some other advice though. The chart below illustrates how DRIV trades with the trend in up and down channels. Basically you want to short when the uptrendlines are broken and buy when the downtrendlines are broken.
I honestly see DRIV as a stock that wants to make new all time highs. 44.51 is in danger IMO. The MACD leads me to this conclusion as does the "descending triangle breakout" I have on the chart below....
I actually think the 26 day MA is a good LONG entry point and a break below the 26 day MA of greater than 4% is a short signal.
cal >:D
Hi Calven.
Thank you for your input. I will now go ponder :-)
I see the point about not being overbought. By that I take it you mean extremely overbought. And in that sense it wasn't. Though it was pretty well bought at point 1. Nice charts you added. I will keep an eye on it as a learning experience. To see where it goes from here.
Cya around. And thanks for taking a look :-)
/Minimunch
Quote from: thai626 on March 02, 2006, 04:08:45 PM
Another potential play! ;D
Looks like this wolfewave target may hit tomorrow. Looking at the intraday chart, I noticed heavy buying in the last hour and half of trading. Looks like good things to come tomorrow. With some news, I can see SVA blowing past the WW target and looking a lot like NVAX in recent days. Happy Trading >:D
Thai
;D
Wolfewave Target Hit :o
Watch closely at the 4.90 Resistance. Both the intraday chart and the medium term chart shows a resistance at 4.90. If it breaks out of it today, this will really take off!! Momentum is building and is confirmed with the rise in volume in recent days. Good luck all!!
Thai
Applaud for the great work!
Keep it up.
Jody
Thanks Jody ;)
Here is what I think may be a wolfewave formation. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that having a "lead in" into the pattern is not a requirement but rather something nice to see before entering the pattern, Much like the fake breakdown at point 5 in the wolvfewave setup (not required for pattern to be valid).
Depending on how BBI trades tomorrow, I may decide to test the waters. If I'm right, I think it'll be a nice payoff! Good luck trading.
Thai
I forgot to mention the triple bottom starting in mid november. Potential is pretty high IMO.
Chart looks great!!!
Here's an article of today from the street concerning BBI
for the whole article, 4 pages long:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/pom/pomsut/10275166.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Not every stock priced below $10 a share will be a profitable investment. Some of the companies trading at these prices are doing so because their operations are in disarray or their business segments in severe decline.
One great example of this is Blockbuster (BBI:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take), the giant video retailer. Indeed, the entire video-rental market is ailing, mainly due to negative same-store sales results, competition from video-on-demand (VOD), overleveraged balance sheets and plans by movie makers to release their titles through VOD and in cinemas at the same time.
Given all these headwinds, Blockbuster is a stock that is best avoided.
At the end of 2005, Blockbuster operated 7,158 company-owned movie-rental stores and 1,884 franchised stores, and generated revenue from its newest initiative, online movie rentals, where it competes with the likes of Netflix (NFLX:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) The company also generates approximately one-third of its revenue through selling merchandise in its stores, though this business carries significantly lower gross margins, about 22% vs. almost 70% for video rentals.
From a fundamental standpoint, Blockbuster's financials are dismal, at best. The company has delivered negative same-store sales for the past three years, been forced to amend its credit agreement with JPMorgan three times, and completed a recent $150 million convertible preferred offering that showed signs of financial desperation, as it was done to meet creditor leverage demands.
.....
Is the $COMP forming a WolfWave pattern.
Starting point, either low in January and the high at the end of March being Wave-5, exceeding the line drawn across points 1 & 3. If it stalls here and crosses below this line, do we look for a possible pull back to a line drawn across points 1 & 4?
Am I looking for something that is not there?
Here's an update of the wolfewave pattern I posted before. The target is quickly approaching. Unfortunately I didn't jump in because I had jumped in LVLT instead. If anyone is holding..........be careful as a retracement may take place once the target is reached. Good luck! ;)
Thai
Quote from: thai626 on March 22, 2006, 11:39:28 PM
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that having a "lead in" into the pattern is not a requirement but rather something nice to see before entering the pattern
Thai,
Wolfe Wave HERESY! Jeepers, I hope that Calven doesn't punish you too severely when he reads your scandalous remarks.
>:D ;D >:D ;D >:D
I'd have to label this one a Descending Triangle. The bottom is flat, with the lows nearly identical. The tops are descending.
The top of the pattern comes in on Monday, April 3, at 4.065, so a print of 4.07 is a technical breakout, but then you've got horizontal resistance at 4.29, and then 4.48.
One never knows if THE BOTTOM has been reached in a stock until after the fact. Personally, I'd rather wait to see some confirmation that the bottom is in.
While the trade certainly could work out, the stock hasn't done anything bullish yet, and it's a play against the trend, which is bearish in all time-frames. I'd have to pass on it, but good luck if you already have it, or if you decide to play it.
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 02, 2006, 09:33:49 AM
Wolfe Wave HERESY! Jeepers, I hope that Calven doesn't punish you too severely when he reads your scandalous remarks.
O no, Calven and I are good friends (if I may call him a friend) 8). We chat on AIM from time to time! I didn't mean any disrespect when I wrote that. It could be that I drew the chart incorrectly and am trying to make something of nothing, or it could be that I am correct. Hopefully no one took what I wrote as disrespectful because that is never my intention. :-\
Anyways, Happy trading everyone! I'm looking forward to this week.
Thai
Quote from: thai626 on April 03, 2006, 12:36:32 AM
O no, Calven and I are good friends (if I may call him a friend) 8). We chat on AIM from time to time! I didn't mean any disrespect when I wrote that.
Thai,
Of course you didn't. I was just kidding, and I apologize if you in any way took me seriously. I shouldn't have joked. My bad.
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 03, 2006, 08:13:15 AM
Of course you didn't. I was just kidding, and I apologize if you in any way took me seriously. I shouldn't have joked. My bad.
No worries Melf! :) :) I knew you meant no harm ;)
I just didn't want Calven to think I meant any disrespect. He's an awesome trader much like the vast majority of the members of this website. ;D ;D
Good luck with MCU...........I saw that you jumped in! I'm waiting to pick up shares of LVLT at 4.50 or so. ;)
Thai
Quote from: thai626 on April 03, 2006, 11:23:48 AM
I just didn't want Calven to think I meant any disrespect. He's an awesome trader much like the vast majority of the members of this website. ;D ;D
Thai,
You're such a great guy, Calven would know that you meant no disrespect.
Quote
Good luck with MCU...........I saw that you jumped in!
Thanks. MCU is so thinly traded, I put in an ALL OR NONE order like I did at the last pattern breakout, not expecting to get filled. This time, they let me have it at 1.78. I'm not sure if that's "a good thing, " or not. I don't like to play thinly traded stocks, but I like the three nested bullish patterns in MCU. We'll see...
>:D ;D ;D
MCU currently is BID 1.76...ASK 1.80, with only 55,600 shares traded.
Quote
I'm waiting to pick up shares of LVLT at 4.50 or so. ;)
Good job exiting LVLT when you did. Nice trade! Applause.
4.50 might be a nice re-entry. You've got some house money to play with.
There's a gap from
4.47-4.54. The Tenkan-Sen (solid green line) and Kijun-Sen (solid red line) currently are at
4.615 and
4.51, respectively.
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 02, 2006, 09:33:49 AM
The top of the pattern comes in on Monday, April 3, at 4.065, so a print of 4.07 is a technical breakout
Thai,
BBI reversed yesterday at
4.06 and put in a Bearish Engulfing pattern, so we now know that trendline has been validated as resistance. A breakout above it "should" have some significance, if only a rally to horizontal resistance.
The gap just below here, at the 50DMA, is
3.79 - 3.81.
Quote from: Melf Elf on April 04, 2006, 08:44:25 AM
BBI reversed yesterday at 4.06 and put in a Bearish Engulfing pattern, so we now know that trendline has been validated as resistance. A breakout above it "should" have some significance, if only a rally to horizontal resistance.
The gap just below here, at the 50DMA, is 3.79 - 3.81.
Yup.....Looks like it Melf. Applauds! Yesterday's close was one ugly candlestick and the price action today verifies it. I guess you win some you lose some! :-\
Thai
Might be time to start trading these bear WW's in this red market...
Heres another one Im thinking about...
The Scotsman identified this Bearish Wolfe Wave possibility on The World Market Indices Board. It has the Fakeout at Wave 5, and the rally from Wave 4 to Wave 5 is a nice Fibonacci extension of the rally from Wave 2 to Wave 3. It's double the length of time, by 1 week.
Quote from: calven on May 22, 2006, 07:04:35 PM
Might be time to start trading these bear WW's in this red market...
Heres another one Im thinking about...
Nice bounce off the 1-4 line - FTO target of 59-60 in play.
59$ target in play ;D
Weird Wolfe Wave (7 Waves, instead of 5 Waves)
Can't put up a chart right now, but it looks like GRMN is a WW from May through early July
GRWW Perfect WW!!!!!
Hey guys,
I know the chart bellow is not a stock but I appreciate some advice since I'm not sure if it qualifies as WW ??
Thanks
Classic bullish WolfeWave set-up on OMNI - target for the move around 10.25. This also corresponds with the W-bottom breakout target of (8.47-6.75= 1.72)+ 8.47 = 10.19. Just needs to get over near term resistance at 8.45-8.47. Nice move yesterday though ;D (See further comments on the OMNI thread).
Keep a watch on ABP as it approaches its LT resistance line.... :o
Also keep a watch on that NAT GAS WW pattern - we are at point 6!
I'm trying to learn this wolwave pattern and it looks very interesting.
Would someone please analyze GNBT?
I don't have drawing tools for my charts in the computer.
I printed a copy of the GNBT chart from Stock Charts and drew lines in it.
I'm just wondering if identified the WW properly.
Nope, sorry doesn't look like a WolfeWave in GNBT to me. If you go right to the top of this thread you should find the key points to a WW. The main thing is that the stock should have been trending strongly either up or down. It then forms a wedge in the SAME dierction as the trend. WW can either form in ascending or descending trends. If we talk about the bearish case, we would have a sustaned uptrend that started to form a rising wedge. It then produces a spike to the upside, outside the rising wedge, essentially a bull trap, and breaks back down below both the top and bottom rails of the wedge formation.
Often the wedge contains 5 points, the first being the first high before the initial retracement and then next 3 being a low, high and another low. Point 5 is the spike outside the pattern. WW targets are then measured by drawing a line from point 1 through 4. What makes a WolfeWave powerful (and we have discussed t here) is that they often form as a result of imbalance in a stocks price. The point 5 fakeout si a key part of this, as it traps traders into thinking the chart will have the opposite resolution to what the WW would predict. These trapped traders then add fuel to the next countertrend movement.
I would mention however, that WolfeWaves are notoriously tricky to spot (and trade) at the point you want them, i.e., just when it has made point 5. We have found quite a few, but mostly after it has broken down. The target line doesn't always get made, but as Melf Would say, its a target IN PLAY, so keep an eye out for it.
Sorry I don't have a chart as an example off-hand, but going back over this thread should give you an idea of what the often look like.
Hi ScottishTrader,
The information you gave me saved me a lot of time in having to go through all the post under WW patterns right away.( I 'm still planning to read all of it.)
Looking forward to learning more from you.
Thanks,
Ares
Hello guyz..
seeing a WW here ?
(http://C:%5CDocuments%20and%20Settings%5CAdministrateur%5CMes%20documents%5CMes%20images%5CNoc.JPG)
Hard to believe what I am seeing here with the USD...
This WW implies a small short covering rally in the USD carry trade. It also implies a short term stock market correction...
The USD has re-entered the channel and has a 1-4 point target as shown in the chart.