interesting to watch..powerful action today
I bought when it settled down @3.8, two weeks ago. It's a great stock.
do you know the story behind the move? great trade 8)
I don't know the story. I overheard a Doctor at a dinner tell another Doctor to take a look at the stock, with a little wink. I excused myself and went to the bathroom and wrote down the symbol.
THat's all I know so far.
I bought this stock at 2.6, 3.6, 3.92, 4.57. Selling it for a modest profit and always cursing to sell cheap. Its now over 5 and certainly on the institutions buy list. Insiders are hording this up. May be ready to move yet again.
I mean 4 buys and 4 sells for day trading.
saffey that is a great story...great ;)
good work
I have been jumping around it for now 7 times. Each times selling for small profit. This one is not stopping :)
And to add to my previous post. This stock has four good ingredients:
1. Good technicals
2. Good fundamentals
3. Insiders Buying
4. Promising pipeline
I jumped on VPHM Friday @5.35. Very happy to see all the insiders buying as well.
For what it's worth, Stock100.com perdicts price over 10.00 by July 14.
Insider Buy....Link
;)
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=ViroPharma+Inc+&CIK=&filenum=&St ate=&SIC=&owner=include&action=getcompany
looks awesome.
Traded eight times. Exited with small to modest profit every time. Its off course one hell of a stock.
Tracked and traded during its rise from 2.6 to 6.0, when my last traded target was hit. Dont know really how much more it can rise.
It has been a wild ride.
Been in and out about 4 times myself.
I thought it would have made a pull back before now.
It just may be up again tomorrow.
It is awesome! ;D It was fun to play.
Look for a pull back and it may do some more tricks. IMHO
I agree. Technicals look great. Will look definitely keep this on my radar tomorrow morning.
Scared about buying this chart, up 200% plus in a month?
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=687;image)
I guess so.
And after you see this next chart, still scared?
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=688;image)
I guess not.
It's possible for the stock to have a pullback because it is up so much in such a short period of time. I don't know about that. What I know is this stock is going to $12 and I need to have a position in it, don't care if a correction comes because it may never came (never before $12 is reached).
The trend is my friend, a friend that always tells the truth. Just sometimes we're not willing to listen ...
I won't buy if there's a gap up at the open but I'll try to buy at the $6.30 - 6.40 area, no problem with that.
You take care !
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Good stuff, David.
Bought in this morning to play with at least for the short term. These pharmaceuticals can shoot through the roof, much like Renovis did awhile back. Can't say this is the next DNA, but the potential upside is pretty good.
mind the gap on this one - it starts at 7.10 so that is first target. Unlikely to break above on first try so may pullback 9-day or other support when it happens.
chart http://tinyurl.com/7ww5o
XOMA yesterday had huge volume and ran into resistance at the 200-day EMA and pulled back so one to look at for an entry
I won't buy on a gap up. Will wait some time and post here when I buy.
Ok, I'm in @$6.05
Happy to see VPHM on the 3F list. May be this time I will keep as long as dave keeps it on the list :)
I bought this at 3.60 a few weeks back and it just keeps going, a lot of insider buying. I don't think you can lose on this one.
Im in, Bought VPHM @5.90 ...
Hopefuly, should make an upward movement tomorrow..
Any thoughts, Is it good to have this a SHORT or LONG TERM?
I'm seeing this would set he target atleast @7 based on the trends .
Hi!
I was a little slower, got in at 6.06 ;)
I have been looking at insiders buys, and that looks real good!
Soooooo - I guess I'm in for a longer time.
By the way: today I was lucky to get some WFR. Maybe worth for you to take a look at?
Cheers.
VPHM had been more of a momentum play of late. Today I matched its march with the like of GOOG, CMT, FORD, XWG and found that they were almost pounding the same path. In other words, accross the board profit taking.
It may be shakey a bit if you have just taken your position but for new entrants it could give better entry points. However, if this is the market top then we are in for some disappointment for some of the momentum plays.
VPHM is notoriously fast mover. However, it has not disappointment those who can live with little volatility.
All the trends look good. Even though I got in at $6.45 and doubled my position @ $5.75. Today was definitely a profit taking day. I'm excited about the trend for this stock.
I can live with some volatility ;D
Would be nice to see this go up.
Good luck to us!
please comment on the following SEC File:
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.c8c3bc3a575abd69dca7391c0176f0c0bc545f7a237b27947bd1b67058e48761
Tuesday , June 07, 2005 16:35 ET
ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) filed an 8-K today to announce that it received notices from holders of its 6% Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2009 electing to voluntarily convert $11,800,000 principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes into 4,720,000 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $2.50 in principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes. Following the conversions, approximately $49.4 million principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes remained outstanding.
Sounds not good IMO.
Suggestions??
Sincerely, after the party we had yesterday, I don't know what to say about those news la-onda. I've bought the stock because of technicals, I'll sell only when technicals say sell. They're not saying that, at least not yet.
Wednesdays candle was a dark cloud cover if I am correct. Todays candle may be confirming
it.
VPHM has been like a budy. In and out for now nine or may be ten times. Last insider purchase at 5.43 x 10,000.
healthy pullback, upside trend is still there:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=VPHM,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lh14,3]&pref=G
any other suggestions?
Cheers
O.
I don't think the bullish trend on VPHM will stop south of the blue line on the chart below. I'm giving it some room to correct excesses and then push higher again. That's my expectation.
Coming to life again :)
I got in VPHM yesterday at 5.61, and today it is showing signs it wants to resume its climb upward. I think this is going to be a good one.
Today's action in VPHM, seemed like its going to break out but the weekend or whatever kept it away from doing so. May be on Monday there is some fire works.
Hum........Mr.David Randolph bought this the next day.
I guess i should have too!!! Should have let something go and got in.
Oh well, can't be in everything.
Support @ $5.69....Resistance @ $6.41
Good luck guys, over there on Stock Picking to all who made a buy!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vphm
I don't know if VHPM is ready to resume its uptrend right now. But I'll show some patience with this stock. Give it a little room - I don't want to lose my position talking about stop loss levels. The trend is your friend and you have to belief it.
On fire
Very true regarding your thoughts on patience, and sometimes the most difficult thing to keep in mind.
New insider buying, awesome!!
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3520188
CU
O.
Bought at $6.03 last week and was a little concerned, but today very cool upward momo
From Clearstation comments:
May 16 2005 12:48PM
Title: Still running up. Insider buying.
Note also that a number of insider buys have occurred over the past week: CEO Michel De Rosen filed today that he bought 28,500 shares at $3.51, and Director Paul Brooke filed on May 12 he bought 126,500 shares at $3.12, and filed on May 9 he bought 33,500 shares at $2.47.
My dear old friend trend has responded to my trust with a move to new highs in VPHM. Highest volume of this move ensures rise is for real. I don't think this stock will stop south of $12.
Just going as planned!!!!
Another great pick, David
Today's action saw sells only to be followed buy a lot of buys. Will this trend continue? I think we need to close above 7 to attract even more attention. If the last trade of 6.88 sticks then we closed at a new 52 week high. Very Bullish!!
Wonder how many shares are shorted as of now. Was 2.5 million last month when the stock was still traded at $3.
Ram
1st level of resistance is at 7.12. I expect VPHM to hit that by the end of the week.
Following that resistance level is 7.36 should hit no later than the end of next week.
Now this is the NASA level analysis. But one thing I know, VPHM may visit a dollar below and then ramp up the same day. Seems like MM dont want to leave any body on the fringe :)
Stocky is right, this is going to be a bumpy ride, but I have just one number in my head: $12.32 ! An enormous gap down occurred in the beginning of 2002 and that value is still open ... with the kind of insider buying we're getting at VPHM I don't think the bullish run will stop without closing that so notorious gap.
I doubled my position at 7.66 6.66 (sorry about that) yesterday. Hoping (X) => keeping fingers crossed we can reach $8 by end of week. Happy trading!
I don't see any price of VPHM $7.66, are you saying $6.66?
Quote from: minglwu on June 15, 2005, 12:46:43 PM
I don't see any price of VPHM $7.66, are you saying $6.66?
Thanks minglwu. I surely hope I did not get it at $7.66. The whole 666 thing must have gotten me spooked.
Wonder what causes the drop in the last hour? David...do you ever buy on the dip or just go with what you start out? The sale of equity is not a good thing is it?
Form 8-K for VIROPHARMA INC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15-Jun-2005
Sale of Equity
Item 3.02. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Between June 13, 2005 and June 14, 2005, ViroPharma Incorporated received notices from holders of its 6% Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2009 (the "Senior Convertible Notes") electing to voluntarily convert $3,600,000 principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes into 1,440,000 shares of common stock at the conversion rate of one share of common stock for each $2.50 in principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes. Following the conversions described above, $40.35 million principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes remained outstanding. The common stock was issued in reliance upon the exemption from the registration requirement of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), afforded by Section 3(a)(9) thereof.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/050615/vphm8-k.html
comments ??
Its debt reduction. This conversion process was started since June 1 and if you see the stock chart, it advanced even further.
Todays delcine in stock was mostly due to general market condition. Not due to this news. Bullish on stock. Holds full position in the stock.
Added some more today. It was a repeat of last week's action, down on a lower daily volume.
Ram
As long as VPHM stays above the blue line below I don't care about the day to day movements. I believe the ones that try to sell high and buy on pullbacks will end up losing the big move. So I'm keeping my position in VPHM as long as the trend, defined by that blue trendline, continues.
As said, the trend is my friend and I'm not selling VPHM as long as it stays above that trendline or reaches my target which is a modest $12.32 :-*
I can tell you that anyone selling to buy on pullbacks will end up losing is position and probably a big part of the bullish move in VPHM. Trading is a simple game: I will hold VPHM as the stock closes above that ascending trendline or until she touches my target at $12.32.
Well dave is very much right about day trading this stock. Before he picked up this stock for 3SF I had traded it for like eight times, each time selling for a small profit hoping to buy low and sell high again. And most of the time I missed the next big jump. And imagine this all started from 2.68. Had I been patient with it, I would have been sitting on something like 150% profit.
Anyway, last bought at 5.85 and holding it till the trend line is broken or we reach our target at 12.32.
I can say only one thing............awesome ;D
I have a problem with VPHM - I have an open 15% profit on it and the trend is bullish. But I'm taking many losses in other stocks today. I have to take some profits too not to damage my overall performance.
Any individual business in a given stock must be submissive against the global portfolio balance and performance.
I can understand taking a profit. But stromg stock fundamentals often outweigh the indices. FORD continued to go up after the nas Index faltered. I got stopped out of FORD because I did not think it could continue its rise.
I am keeping VPHM. I sam stuck in a couple of others I wish I had sold and VPHM is one I would add to on a pullback. It may be difficult to re-enter at a lower price since good news keeps coming out.
John
I will hold my shares a while:
http://www.rowdyrhino.com/stocks/vphm.htm
>:D
Dave,
You did what you had to do and I applaud you.
I will add on weakness with VPHM and if I were a as good a trader as you, I would likely do what you did.
All the best,
John
It might be an idea to have a look at VPHM again!
It seems it finally has broken out of the base at 7 under reasonable volume.
Vancocin no. for june should soon be here and I wouldn't be surprised if they will be followed by Piper Jaffray raising their target.
PRICE TARGET: $8.50 IS POSSIBLE, TRUE ?
I am not trying to hype the stock but I really think you are way to conservative. It seems like they are heading for an EPS of $1 to $1.2. I will write a bit more about this later but as fare as I remember their agreement around Vancocin is that if the sales exceed $65 million they don't have to share the profit. (check here: http://www.naztradamus.com/ make sure to read the whole page! ). The revenue was 10.2 million last month!
I think Viropharma should trade at a PE of around 20 so you can do the math.
I think to place a "price target" may not be a good idea just yet. I have seen people bail on the way up and be afraid to get back in.
The VPHM chart is almost a perfect match of FORD. Consolidation in the $6's and $7's, then a run to $14 and conslidate in the $10 to $12's. And then a run to the $20's.
Technically VPHM is in uncharted territory and fundamentally getting stronger.
All the best.
John
If you look at the top of page 3 on this topic you will see David's target was $12.32 after it fills the gap from March of 2002. Even though this stock was doing well, David sold it to offset other 3SOF losses and because he was expecting a general market correction. (Which did happen, incidentally.)
Good luck, Racer X
I'm still holding this since 5.70. :D
News is out. I haven't posted any links here yet so I hope this works.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh08801_2005-07-05_21-03-15_wen4353_newsml
Racer X
Dave,
You should put VPHM back on the list. This has all the workings of a monster stock. I wonder how much $$ they have on hand? I get the May / June scripts havent even been announced yet? Why is this taking so long?
Well goodluck for all those who still hold it :) I dont :(. But one thing I know about VPHM that it swings wildly. So if you plan to start a position you may be in for a little surprise. PULLBACK. Though its very tough to pray for pullback with this bull. But we may have one.
And I will be jumping back when that happen :)
Hi Stocky,
Take a second look at the chart. How many pull backs do you see since the stock was below 2? I wish you the best of luck but don't wait too long!
The press release today was another confirmation of the positive development of the company. I especially like this part:
"We will continue to focus on execution in all areas of our business, including our efforts to identify non-equity dilutive alternatives to manage the remaining 2007 subordinated notes."
Meaning that they are going to use cash to pay back the subordinated notes. Not only will that incease EPS but it is also a clear signal that they are earning a lot of money from Vancocin.
Wow! Action..........
what a great stock! notice how RSI has stayed overbought...this one aint stoppin ;)
I see that RSI, she got up there and was the hang out zone.
I believe this has power to run more.Its awesome :o
any comments on this AH news:
ViroPharma to convert notes into shares
Tue Jul 5, 2005 05:03 PM ET
CHICAGO, July 5 (Reuters) - Biotechnology company ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it plans to convert the remaining $15.35 million in principal on its 6 percent convertible senior notes due in 2009 into 6.14 million shares of common stock.
The Exton, Pennsylvania-based company said it has reduced its outstanding debt by 57 percent over the past two months.
I bought yesterday.
Very Strong !
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VPHM&t=5d
Back in with regret to miss some run :(
Michael, What's your target on this. I am thinking of closing half my position at the close today. Bought at 6.72, up about 31%. Suggestions please...
P
Hello Everyone!
I'm not a heavy trader, but I do take some risks. I pay attention to the TA experts, but I also pay a strict attention to a company's fundamentals. This stock appears to have good technicals and good fundamentals. Ran across this stock here on this board this morning and bought today. I expect volatility, but unless there is some really bad news out there, will buy some more when it pulls back. This is really time-consuming, but I'm enjoying this website. Hope I can make a meaningful contribution soon.
If you go to the Yahoo VPHM message Board you will find newbies to people who have been in VPHM since 2000. Some have alleged holdings in excess of 100,000 shares and others have just a few hundred.
My position is at $6.55 for 3000 shares. It is useless to try and weave back in and out of this stock. There are now options available.
VPHM can go to $12 easily by the end of the year and perhaps $25 next year if Vancocin continues to be cash cow. If the cold viral product hits, VPHM is a moon shot.
I wish I could find a few other stocks with the fundies and techies oof VPHM.
All the best.
John
Seems like wont stop before 12.2, have to get back in :)
Long VPHM
I'm in !
Quote from: Pete on July 08, 2005, 12:42:23 PM
Michael, What's your target on this. I am thinking of closing half my position at the close today. Bought at 6.72, up about 31%. Suggestions please...
P
As usual the target is depending on your time horizon. This is one of the stocks that I wouldn't sell until it is around 20. I expect that their EPS this year will be around $1 - $1.2. and with a conservative PE at 20 it seems like fair value is 20. Then there is their Pipeline and especially their product for Common Cold (which we should start hearing news about soon) could really make this stock explosive.
If you want to limit you risk you might want to sell some at around $10, which could be a psychological resistance.
I am long from below 4 and I have still not sold a single share!
Thanks Michael, I was looking for opinions before I sold half of my position at the close today. It's that this is one of the few stocks in my portflio that is up and I didn't want to lose the profit.
John (thanks for your input) also pretty much has the same opinion as you do so I will hang on to it. I know anything can happen but long term I will be OK.
Applaud you both for the help.
P
I know this sounds crazy, but....
If I had to leave my computers for an extended period, say six months or even a year, I would feel perfectly comfortable selling everything I own and putting my entire portifiolo into this one stock -VPHM (PLEASE DON"T DO THIS AT HOME).
You see, the biggest problem with this equity IS US watching it incessantly. Our dreams will never be satisfied this way. If we leave it alone, walk away for a while, it will be $12 in no time. But I won't sell then.
I know this is the most difficult thing in the world for a trader to do, but from everything David has said and done here, it is this advice that I have profited the most from. Leave your emotions out of it.
Speaking of David, he has basically ignored this recent run-up. I am curious to know what he thinks. he is probably wishing he stild owned it. David, if you get this, your opinion is valued.
Thanks
Fundamentally, VPHM is undervalued and the constant run of stock validates it. I regret selling my shares earlier but still thinks its not too late for those on the sideline.
Funny thing is that as soon as it hits double digits we may see some big money which generally does not trade shares under 10, may jump aboard. :)
Yep, that is my take also.
Doing research on catching these gems earlier...a lot of work but it can be done.
I will only post one when I firmly believe it is nailed for all.
John
I'm very happy I was able to add to my position today. Cost Basis is $8, for 4000 shares.
... what a shame, what I did to VPHM :-[. A beautiful momentum stock with explosive volume and I've sold it with just 18% profit (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.0), no technical reason whatsoever.
My talk was wise:
1) The kind that I want: VPHM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.msg2583#msg2583)
2) The kind that I want: VPHM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.msg2858#msg2858)
3) The kind that I want: VPHM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.msg3159#msg3159)
4) The kind that I want: VPHM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.msg3409#msg3409)
5) The kind that I want: VPHM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.msg3583#msg3583)
6) The kind that I want: VPHM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.30)
But my actions were stupid:
The selling post (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.msg4223#msg4223)
Now that I've read this again I'm aware of my total lack of discipline concerning this trade. And lack of discipline must be paid. If I had kept my plan I would have a 50% profit at this point. But I got out with just 18%. Of course, a man can sell shares and they continue higher, no problem with that. The problem is that I had a plan, and plans must be followed. If plans are not followed a man must pay is bill, with hard earned dollars.
The only way I have to stop being wrong is to start being right by stop being wrong. So, what to do now? Correct the mistake as I can, which is to buy back shares at a higher price and re-enter the initial plan.
Michael and other folks like the fundamentals of VPHM and I don't question the validity of their analysis. I don't want to know more, I have to buy VPHM tomorrow, I don't care if the stock may have a pullback, I have to buy it to correct a trading mistake.
Here's the chart, the most bullish on the street:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1993;image)
This analysis was part of the Top 10 stocks for Monday (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1368.0). At the end of the thread I concluded to buy 6.66% of capital in VPHM (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1368.msg8320#msg8320). Now I'm back to the old VPHM thread to update my analysis on VPHM everyday until I sell the stock.
I'm completely running out of time here before the opening bell, I'm glad I have my position back in VPHM, I don't mind if it does pullback now (candlesticks suggest it will).
I'll hold the stock as long as it remains above that blue ascending trendline. That's my trading plan and this time I will follow it !
Dave,
Good plan as I see it.
BTW, I am likeing IBAS.OB
Gold standard crossover, Insider buying a little back and turnaround in process.
John
Very nice premarket @9.74, glad to have added to this one.
On Fire ... >:D >:D
This has been a great selection !
Applaud ;D :) :o 8)
Nice Work !
Anyone havea price target on it now ??? ;D
Here are a couple of idea. Short term I look for working through the $10.20sh resistance and then consolidation when it hits $11.48 or so. After that, true value will take over and take it to the $20s by the end of the year. No guarantees of couurse.
Also WLDA bears a marked resemblance to this and may be to the airlines what VPHM is to Pharma. Check it out. I got in on the late SEC filing scare. We shall see.
John
$12.32 acts like a magnet on VPHM now. I don't see this bull run stopping south of closing that big gap on the long term chart. Then we'll see, the stock may go a lot higher than that, but that's my short term target and possibly a «take profit» zone.
(nice chart on WLDA JVC689, and considering the sector, something really positive must be going around that company)
BUYING opportunity today ?? :-\
Added to VPHM $ 9.84.
8)
Good call. Once it closes above $10.14, it will go some more. A lot of "traders" are stting their buys a little above the last high and dumping for pennies to dimes to quarters to halves depending upon personality.
John
VPHM is a no brainer. Hold it as long as it closes above the ascending blue trendline. The stock has an enormous gap to fill on the long term chart at $12.32. This value is a powerful magnet for the stock, I believe.
18-Jul-05
08:48 VPHM ViroPharma target upped to $15 from $7 at Piper Jaffray (9.87 )
"Piper Jaffray raises their target to $15 from $7, saying that prior to 2Q results they are taking this opportunity to revise estimates. Firm notes they had previously used a "worst-case" scenario, but given the recent appreciation in the stock, they believe that publication of a more realistic Vancocin sales and expense trajectory may help investors better understand the potential valuation upside from current levels. Firm raises their Vancocin sales estimates to $29.3m from $24.0m in 2Q05, to $102.3m from $79.7m in 2005, to $125.5m from $87.9m in 2006, and to $139.8m from $100.0m in 2007. Firm changes their EPS ests to $0.05 from $0.15 in 2Q05, to $0.48 from $0.24 in 2005, and to $0.68 from $0.25 in 2006. Reits Outperform."
Can't stop loving this little baby!
Mike
QuoteFirm changes their EPS ests to $0.05 from $0.15 in 2Q05, to $0.48 from $0.24 in 2005, and to $0.68 from $0.25 in 2006. Reits Outperform."
This is strange Michael, did they lowered the second quarter estimates?
Stock up 8% at the open ;)
Thanks !
awesome & applaud
Yes I believe this is correct due to the cost of the conversion of bonds.
Viropharma have to pay all the interest for the bonds that has been converted in the quarter the conversion happend. It might sound bad but it is actually great news as you can see on the reaction!
I am going to stand aside...and if it gets away so be it.
I am not thrilled with the full year estimate...but who knows....I know never sell strong stock! yada yada yada
Current E is 22sh and Forward PE is 16sh
The earnings release as I see it may be anti cliimactic.
John
Hi JVC,
God knows I'm not a strong believer in high PE's but everything is relative. You might want to compare the PE with other Biotech companies with a similar pipeline.
Mike
You are 100% correct.
But people were throwing numbers around like $1.00 per share for '05 and why is the second half being forecast so low? .....no more derivatives or costs expressed as far as I know.
I may regret it but if I do I will come back in...I do not mind admitting a mistake.
When i see too many people in love with a stock at the message Board of VPHM, I get concerned about my objectivity and forget it is just a stock game.
JVC
:)
Luving a stock is certainly one of the biggest sins of trading.
Hi David. :D
with momentum like this , will u sell VPHM at 12.32 as planned?
Keep up the great work!
thanks a lot!
I am also interested in knowing that dave :)
Quote from: stocky on July 18, 2005, 01:15:56 PM
:)
Luving a stock is certainly one of the biggest sins of trading.
You are right, falling in love with a share is one of the biggest sins of trading. Another one is to sell a share in uptrend too early ::)
As mentioned previously Viropharma seems cheap compared to other Biotech stocks. Here are the PE values of some of the stocks I remember we have talked about on 3SOF (the list is short as there are very few Biotechs with earnings!):
CELG: PE ttm: 89 PE 06: 49
DNA: PE ttm: 107 PE 06: 53
CHIR: PE ttm: 225 PE 06: 20
IMCL: PE ttm: 36 PE 06: 19
VPHM: PE ttm: 21 PE 06: 17
This is just to demonstrate VPHM's low evaluation and doesn't mean that the other stocks are bad investments (on the contrary some of them seems to be excellent picks!)
The only reason I see to sell VPHM now is that it has gone up too much and for me that reason is not good enough.
Mike, yahoo shows this
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 24.85
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-06)¹: 31.00
for VPHM ???
Thanks Stocky. You are right that the PE (ttm) in Yahoo is 24.85. I was using Yahoo's portfolio manager, which showed PE 20.82. Wondering what the difference is!
I have used Piper Jaffray's EPS figure for 2006. Yahoo's figures are outdated.
Here is an updated list:
CELG: PE ttm: 89 PE 06: 49
DNA: PE ttm: 107 PE 06: 53
CHIR: PE ttm: 225 PE 06: 20
IMCL: PE ttm: 36 PE 06: 19
VPHM: PE ttm: 25 PE 06: 17
Sorry for the mistake :( The conclusion however seems to be the same.
I've owned this since $3.50 . Some things to look at , 78% institutional ownership, insider buying, and products being developed. Just a speculation but I think there is more to this stock than meets the eye. If any good news on other products comes out this could go over $50. Was at a hundred at one time, not sure why it dropped? My opinion is go long on this one. Cure for HIV, Hepititis, Common cold,..speculation. Institutions and insiders are saying there is a chance. Charts are saying yes.
I have no argument with any holder or the concept of value above.
Here are my other personal reasons for stepping back and I could be wrong.
The earnings for the second quarter being forecast were actually lower than previously thought...as was the adjusted earnings forecast for the year.
Vancocin is a one trick pony with no patents and just "trade secrests". It is just a matter of time for competition at the high price of Vancocin. One piece of news on this and that is all she wrote.
The drug for colds" will be very expensive...and market penetration may not be as suggested by the hype. There have been other upper respiratory inhalers for the common cold that have flopped.
There is a lot of competition for a Hep C drug.
Shorts are at very high level...if they are wrong this flys a great deal...but sometimes they are right.
The Yahoo board sentiment is over ebbulent and talk of $100 by the end of the year.
I admit I am not good at picking exits.
JVC
David,
whats your decision if VPHM is filling the GAP @ 12.32$ ?
Holding for analyst price target?
Upgrade has 15 $ as new price target now:
YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of ViroPharma gained 15.7% to %$11.42 in afternoon action on Monday after Piper Jaffray lifted its 12-month price target on the stock to $15 from $7. The firm, which has an outperform rating on the stock, also lifted its estimates for sales of Vancocin, the company's colitis treatment, to $29.3 million in the second quarter and $102.3 million for 2005. The previous estimates were $24 million and $79.7 million, respectively. Piper now sees earnings of 15 cents a share in the second quarter, up from its prior projection for a profit of 5 cents a share.
Thanks in advance for your feedback
I finally got to VPHM, the kind that I want ;)
I'm selling this stock today at the closing of that enormous gap on the long term chart, the magic $12.32 number !
The stock yesterday shot up 19% due to this: ViroPharma gets lift from positive Piper Jaffray note (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&dateid=38551.6245652662-838838601&)
I guess there's too much people involved now and the stock is very overbought in the short term (it was already overbought when I bought 8)).
This doesn't mean, at all, the stock will go down, but I had a plan to buy and hold until this gap was closed, so I'll take profits today if I have the chance. If it doesn't go to $12.32 I'll hold, no problem, we're so close now that there's very little chance the gap remains open.
Probably I'll buy back again later, with another trading plan ...
Hi JVC,
I like your well-researched opinion about Viropharma. It is very rare to see somebody that are not in the stock doing such a thorough due diligence.
When that is said I think you are wrong.
It is correct that Vancocin is an old drug (20 years) but nobody has still been able to produce a generic version and there is no application for a generic version with FDA. You are right that a generic version could be launched but for now this is just speculations with mo substance.
The lower guidance for Q2 is not a result of lower sales or profit margin (on the contrary the Revenue is revised up). The revision is due to the forced conversion of the bonds. VRPM has to pay all the interest for the whole duration of the converted bonds in the quarter they are converted. I as well as the marked see the conversion as very positive for VRPM but it obviously hurts earnings in the quarter it happens.
It is the first time I have heard that Pleconaril should be very expensive (Do you have a link for that information) but at least Shering-Plough has been willing to pay $65 mill. in milestone payments for the rights for US alone so I assume they at least think there is a market for this drug. (so does all other analysts I have seen.)
You are right that the competition on Hepatitis C is fierce but the potential is huge and you will see a significant increase in PPS if they will be successful.
Concerning the short interest I don't see such a huge interest (3.2 million shares). In fact the days to cover is 1.49, which really is nothing. All these shorts are heavily under water so I rather see them as a support for the uptrend.
Finally I think you are a bit one-sided. It seems you have forgot that the sales of Vancocin is increasing very rapidly (100% year-on-year) as the infection with C. Difficile becomes epedimic. That insiders recently has bought 75.000 shares in the open market. I could continue (haven't even talked about Maribavir) but I think the long case is already presented in this thread.
Good luck. I guess we will see who is right in the coming days!
Mike
Mike,
I am still holding some in profit VPHM stock and am impassioned.
All I can say is I am a retired Physician and I have seen products in the URI inhaler field before and they failed. They ARE very expensive...and how many people will pay a premium to resolve a self limiting illness....just a little quicker than an inexpensive zinc gluconate which is proven to decrease the time. I do not have time for a treatise.
If you do not think that Vancocin is on the radar of some wannabe company, then you may be kidding yourself. I personally know of several other alternative treatments for C Difficlle that are less expensive. It is not the first line treatment. Just check the PDR and other sources. It is only supposed to be used after first time failures. The reason is that there isa high occurrence of kidney disorders. It is sub standard care to prescribe it as first choice. Have you ever seen the face of an elderly person who had to go and pay $200 for a Vancocin Rx?
"If" successful is the key word. All the companies with Hep C drugs think they will be successful.
Shorts sometimes do get it right...at some price.
The earnings had a good reason to have a down estimate for the quarter...but I was disappointed and the Yahoo site is not correct withe forecast from Piper...briefing.com got it right. Many just read the Yahoo extract of the report.
My view is unbiased and I know there are opposing points of view. Personally some profit off the table is OK with me. I am 25 % in cash...so that is a factor in my opinions and that is all they are.
It is a sentiment thing too. The people on the VPHM board are talking $100 by the end of the year and the shorts are talking $9. I do not know. I made a profit, have some for long term and want to have a realistic point of view.
All the best to those of you fully loaded. You deserve to get rich on VPHM for havingthe guts to stay with it all the way. To me this concept of never selling a running stock defies reason. For every one that keeps on running there are many more which have set backs.
That is it for me on this one. All the best.
JVC
sold 1/3 @ 12.1,
2/3 for the long run
;)
i was skimming thru yahoo msg board, (i know i know, but we can take it as discretionary reference ;) ), and saw this well thought post , thought i should share with my fellows :
Price Target
by: dosjots
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 07/19/05 11:53 am
Msg: 38219 of 38235
Many comments on price targets so I thought I'd offer some thoughts for consideration. I look at VPHM as both a value and growth play. In terms of value, with earnings now turned around, the earnings consensus seems to be approximately $1.00. Sure, some are higher, some are lower but this is what I use as a fair and reasonably conservative estimate. And based on Piper's release yesterday, they expect sales to rise 28% in 2006 and earnings to rise 42%. Not that I agree with their actual numbers, it's their growth rates that could be used to very conservatively estimate a 30% rise in earnings to $1.30 for 2006. Then using a conservative P/E ratio of 20 – 25, price should be $20 - $25 in 2005 and $27 - $33 in 2006. Now this is the very conservative projection based solely on the earnings driven by Vancocin. I consider the targets as minimums with very high probabilities. From there, I then attempt to put on my growth hat look for opportunities above and beyond. And the great news is that there is not there is a single story out there but rather a number of stories that even if one or two hit can propel VPHM above the targets I mentioned. Since I do not have the ability (or patience) to fully asses these opportunities, their probabilities, and potential price targets, I instead keep it simple and view that there is a high probability that a few will materialize over next 3 – 6 months and drive the price north to varying degrees. My thought on minimum price is approximately $35 - $40 range with upside well beyond. Of course each of these events will have different effects on price. Remember, we just need a couple to materialize. Here are the near-term catalysts that I see:
1) Vancocin - stronger sales as C. difficile outbreaks continues and/or accelerates
2) Maribavir – In Phase II since Q3 2004. As Kamoa points out, it may be an excellent candidate for FDA fasttrack. Drug updates can provide catalyst.
3) HCV-796 – Although only in Phase 1b clinicals, another drug in pipeline with 80% of R&D funded by Wyeth, VPHM's partner. Drug updates can provide catalyst
4)Pleconaril – Schering-Plough now driving development with update of results expected in Q4 2005. Obviously market is HUGE and can cause MUCH momentum for VPHM. Schering has excellent development capabilities and muscle. This was a very smart partnership.
5) With stock now in $11-$12 range, will be on the radar of more institutional money and it should start to be visible in IBD. Often, funds will look to smaller, quick moving companies to add a little 'juice' to their performance since they are often in larger, slower moving companies.
6) Given poor Q2 and Q3 earnings & sales figures from last year, the Q2 & Q3 2005 numbers will blow them away. Dramatic % increases such as that draws positive attention and will help to raise the IBD profitability and overall composite rating. Again, smart money pays attention to this.
7) Additional $65 million in payments from Schering if certain milestones are met – If Q4 update is positive, would not be surprised to see another payment in 2005. Even $10 million could add $.17 - $.18 per share. These payments would take a big bite out of remaining debt.
8) Market behavior – money seems to be going back into market and stocks have been doing well. In particular, biotec has been leading. If this proves to be a bull market, P/Es of growth companies generally expand 70% - 130%. So the previous targets of $20 - $25 could be $42 - $56 in a bull market favoring biotec.
9) Additional analyst coverage announcements and new targets (earnings and price) being released. I believe that one reason that Piper was conservative yesterday was because this gives them the opportunity to release several more positive revisions to keep momentum moving. I would do the same.
I'm sure I've missed some catalysts but again, I'm trying to keep it simple. For my investing style, this is a no-brainer and I see no better opportunity in the market. Since I'm so bullish, I've also allocated 50% of my VPHM position to options to get a little more juice out of the return. As always, could be wrong though am putting my dollars behind my view. Good luck all.
there are some very good points , what ya think?
good trading!
Just for fun, I did some checking around about Vancocin....and not even the other options.
3 M Pharmaceuticals manufactures it in Canada...at least that is what the Pharmacy supplier told me...of course I will check it out...so it is not gospel
There is no such thing as a lock on a drug off patent. US citizens can buy Vancocin directly from a pharmacy in Canada.
If this starts hitting the higher volumes, I may even come up with the money to get an IND to sell it in the US.
BTW, it is sold in Canada now as manufactured by 3 M Pharmaceuticals in Canada...and yes that is a division of the BIG MMM.
Now I doubt very much that VPHM is supplying 3 M Pharmaceuticals...but who knows...I will check that out too.
So it will run and I still have my VPHM, but if I can, I will form the Pharmaceutical Division of my company Cappelos, Inc. and compete with them.
I know Ha Ha.
John
Anyone interested in contacting me may do so at
[email protected] or through this forum.
Quote from: JVC689 on July 08, 2005, 01:10:34 PM
My position is at $6.55 for 3000 shares. It is useless to try and weave back in and out of this stock. There are now options available.
VPHM can go to $12 easily by the end of the year and perhaps $25 next year if Vancocin continues to be cash cow. If the cold viral product hits, VPHM is a moon shot.
I wish I could find a few other stocks with the fundies and techies oof VPHM.
All the best.
John
Dear John,
I am just wondering what have made you change your mind so fundamentally. I have seen this on other boards. Normally when people regret that they have sold too early, but I am sure that is not the case here.
Anyhow I wish you the best of luck with your adventure in the pharmaceutical industry. I guess your profit from VPHM will come in handy.
I would appreciate if you could post links to document the alleged production of Vancocin in Canada. Until then I will disregard it.
Mike
Mike,
I have absolutel no sellers remorse....I have free stock...what more can I ask.
But get real, why would I want to share my DD sources on what I found? I did a lot of work and may get into this business, so why would I want more competition. I am being as straight up as I can be.
If I fail in my endeavor, all I lost was time.
But the fact is it can be gotten in Canada from another supplier as far as i can tell from talking with the Pharmacy.
And why would I lie about it? Why would they lie about it? But the real question is....WAS IT IN THE PROSPECTUS OR FILING STATEMENTS?....I did not take the time to look.
I have spoken with the Pharmacy and with 3 M Pharmaceuticals and I would doubt if VPHM really cares about this yet....but I do care.
Bottom line, I like the VPHM story, but there were always 2 nagging questions I had.
1. Why would Lilly dump this.....yes I know all the conventional reasons...but...
2. A product off patent and only covered by "trade secrets"...yo! Like some can not be hired.
My background in Organic Chemistry, MBA in Finance, Medical Degree, years working in industry and over 20 years in patient care was screaming at me to dig more.
I am not trying to scare ANYONE. The sky is not falling in on VPHM...they just gave me a potentially great opportunity if I can get all of the pieces together.
At one point I almost was considering violating my allocation rules to get more VPHM in the $6s, but those questions kept me back. There is always a reason for everything, though we may not know it at the time. If nothing else, it is a great learning experience. As with all DD, there is always someone who will dig deeper and likely even deeper than I.
I am a truth seeker. When one is totally committed to a stock, objectivity is sometimes lost.
All the best.
John
Dear John,
I think you misunderstood me. I do certainly not think you are lying. I just can't base my investments on some loose allegations on a message board. For the time being I am confident in my investment in VPHM based on the documented facts.
I don't want you to release information that is not available for the investing community but I thought it was public information as you mentioned the name of the company.
I can only encourage other readers of this thread to investigate this alleged production of Vancocin in Canada very diligent.
Mike
Dear Mike,
Perhaps I did misunderstand you. As i said, it likely will have little impact on VPHM now. But with repeat infections and the cost going up because of opportunistic pricing, one does not need a crystal ball to see that there will eventually be competition from someone and/or follow up prescriptions will be filled in Canada..
Just do a search. You know the old saying "seek and you shall find". At the Yahoo message Board, "there are none so blind that will not see". They think I am short. Anyone short VPHM must either really know what he or she is doing or be crazed.
This is my last VPHM post since my holdings are lighter.
Sincerely,
John
I am checking out WLDA and if the NAA aquisition numbers are good after the late filing, I will take a large position.
JVC for traders what matters the most is CHARTS. We all may be less informed, with the exception of guys like Michel, but the big buying going on in VPHM is too much a vote of confidence. I do not have any position in this stock but let me tell you if you calim something then you have to give reference to that source. The doomdsday scenario, though welcome, lacks objectivity unless accompanied by verifiable comments.
I have applauded both you and Michel for starting ViroWars here.
You convinced me....here is a sampling. And, yes the chart is the thing...until it breaks down...not saying it will...I still hold it.
Here ya go:
http://www.doctorsolve.com/Vancocin/14195.aspx
http://www.vancomycin-oral-capsules.co.uk
Viro wars..... It has anice sound. I thought it was due diligence with a flair. I checked the links and they worked. If anyone has a problem with them, please let me know.
John
Thanks JVC.
John,
With your credentials in the pharmaceutical and/or health industry I find it hard to believe you don't understand the information you are trying to convey. In general the members of 3SOF try to inform each other in order to make better investment decisions and I hope your are posting in the same spirit!
You didn't exactly say what the links were meant to show but I assume you post them to show that there are generic competition for Vancocin (as this is what we are discussing). If you post them to give the reader insight into the drug production or show them where they can buy the drug; then I apologize in advance for this post.
Concerning Encap, this company is a subcontractor to the licensed producers of Vancocin Pulvules, the oral capsule formulation of Vancocin. Encap produce the Capsules in which you put the active drug. To use this as an argument for generic competition is the same as saying that Viropharma might face competition from the companies that makes the packaging or printing the labels. (Complete nonsense)
You can read about the company here: http://www.encapdrugdelivery.com/ They might come in handy in your new pharmaceutical venture.
I am also sure you are aware that Viropharma only acquired the right to manufacture, market and sell Vancocin in the US. There are other companies, which have similar agreements with Lilly covering other areas and these agreements regulates the competition between the partners. I am not saying that there will not be spillover from one market to another but to use this as an argument for generic competition is entirely misleading.
I have been a bit more direct in my comments than I normally am, but people here are investing with their own money so it is important that they base their decisions on correct information. As this is a "friendly" forum people might not be as critical to information as they would be if they find it on the Yahoo MB.
I totally respect that we might have different opinions but let us try to base them on facts instead of misinformation.
Finally if you have based your new pharmaceutical venture on this information you might want to revisit your business plan!
Dear Mike and people folllowing this thread,
Mike, I will not characterize your post as you have mine by punctuation. I am human and delving.
I reluctantly posted the links at the request of Gurukol who desired them...one was Encap, as you know. There are other links but I fear that this is getting too far afield. I was criticised for not posting links and now links I post are extrapolated. The Canada Pharmacy link is not mentioned.
I am in contact with Encap and currently in dialog. I have made no vernture decisions and all is exploratory. I am awaiting call backs from 3 M Pharmaceuticals and one other firm.
I am in contact with the FDA bureaucracy about the IND process for Vancomycin HCL USP
I do not know for sure that there can not be generic competition for Vancocin and there are no absolutes anymore that people know that there can not be a generic. Firms have gotten around "trade secrets" in numerous legal ways.
I am not a neophyte in new ventures or to investing. I have had successes and failures in both and learned from them all. I now look carefully before I leap and never invest more than 3% of my net worth on any situation
I fail to see how my posts have been anything less than friendly. If something came off that way, then I apologize. I may have been tired.
BTW, Vancocin is a trademark and is not being diligently protected.
My DD on VPHM has led me to 3 other potential competitiors for Vancocin besides Vancomycin HCL USP. They are even mentioned by VPHM. One has a product in late Stage ll trials and is superior so far to Vancocin or any other directed to C Difficile.
The information I am trying to convey is meant to be straight forward. Put succinctly, my DD has led me to potential competition for Vancocin that may be on the horizon. I do not want to be blind sided and thought my information useful for me to make a decision to keep the free stock. I simply shared that. VPHM, by their own reports have lined up another manufacturer for Vancocin and have even stated little intent to manufacture themselves. That is a wise decision given all of the above. It would be foolish to expend moneys for facilities that produce a product,that while growing now because of a hopspital epidemic of carelessness and general non isolation of those infected, may face competition which people tend to downplay. Likewise, Lilly knew all of the above and obviously decided to move on. It is a good deal for both. But it is not a forever cash cow, that some apparently seem to believe.
VPHM technicals are great. If one bases their investments solely on that, then go with it.
VPHM fundamentals are good now. I am merely trying to look ahead. That is the spirit of my posts on this subject.
I hope I have allayed your fears if you had any. Likewise, I mean no one any ill will.
Sincerely,
John
Jesus, what a discussion on VPHM !!! I have to be humble here, I know little, if any, about the company :-[
The only thing I have is a trading plan. Yesterday the stock closed after hours at $12.19, so there's a good chance today is the day where I'll take my 30% plus profit :-*
I know many people had greater profits, but for a man that sold too soon and bought back a lot higher I don't think this is a bad play. Anyway, even when I bought for the first time around $6 I was planning to sell when the gap on the long term chart was closed, so the time has probably come.
The stock is so overbought now that I expect severe profit taking after the gap is closed at $12.32. Then I will read some more about the company, specially Michael's and JVC's posts, perhaps they convince me of buying back VPHM again, or not.
Thanks for this discussion, keep the level high ... (fundamental analysts are always more efusive on defending their points of view, a technical analyst doesn't have much to argue, if he's good he knows the market is always right and the market always knows better).
broke 12.5 decisively. 8)
can i have concensus who's selling who's holidng?
i am holding with a tight stop.
how about u?
Thanks
This stock has just gone up up and up, and i bought 5 different times, so i will sell off all my profits and my earlier buys and continue to climb or fall with this stock with my later investments. besides is that 20.00 target that far off the charts?
Still holding what I have.
But bought OSCI as a back up. Their Ramoplanin [R] drug for C Difficile is looking good in late phase ll studies vs Vancocin [V]. Stock at $2.50 looks cheap to me. Plus they are rolling out a new drug for upper respiratory illness. Even if comparable, when approved, it will have a market.
2 times a day dose for R v 4 times a day for V gets better compliance.
John
Thanks for the headsup Dr. ;D
will look into OSCI. what other biotech do u currently own and looking at?
wanna take advantage of this bull in biotech. :D
Thanks!
I sold 1/2 my position and bought SCLN. Good luck all!
Sold VPHM @$12.32.
31% profit in 7 sessions. Portfolio is up 144% now 8)
Good luck for those who continue to hold !
Thanks david! way to go!
see this is another thing i need to learn from you , pulling the trigger merciless . ;D
i applaud you !
Hey david I've been giving you applauds, but wanted you to know this is a GREAT site, and vphm was a excellent pick!! Haven't had much chance until recently to post, I unfortunately have a boss :(. But not for long with those picks ;D.
Good trading
Quote from: jc707270 on July 20, 2005, 12:40:54 PM
Hey david I've been giving you applauds, but wanted you to know this is a GREAT site, and vphm was a excellent pick!!
Couldn't have said that better.
It is however sad to loose a soldier in the Viro war. I hope you will enroll again in this epic war for ever larger profit for the holders of VPHM ;D
One more applauds from me - who will give you the number 200!!!!
I'm buying a truck load if it goes back down around $10 today. I've regretted not adding earlier. This is the safest equity out there.
Got back again at below 11
and Got out near 12.
Sorry folks just daytrading ;)
applaud for david's trading plan! perfectly anticipated the drop.
applaud for stocky for a perfect daytrade! man ur good at the entry and exit, seen u pull off quite a few of these. ;)
oh well i missed both of the above plays . but i am glad to see this great rebound in such a short time. lots of demand. bullish!
the drop this AM was probably due to the very disapointing earning report of LLY, a big partner of VPHM.
let's close green ! ;D
;)VPHM: To Present At Banc of America Conference @ 10:30 ET
Friday , July 29, 2005 08:32 ET
Company representatives of Viropharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) will be presenting at the Banc of America Securities 2005 Specialty Pharmaceuticals Conference today. The Company's presentation is scheduled to begin at 10:30 ET.
Links:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=92320&eventID=1108294
http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bas/sp05/id72204246.cfm
Please listen carefully, I have started already to accumulate again.
2nd of August results will be awesome !!!
Chart:
I'm still holding lonnnnnnnggggggg ttttttteeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrmmmmm!
La-Onda, what makes you think their earnings report will be awsome?
you have listen detailed to the call?
sum up from yahoo board:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=40493
&
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=40506
IMO Q2 results will be better than expected.
We will see on the 2nd of August
Dear Oliver,
I am also holding strong over the earnings. One of the mistakes I have done is to sell a stock in an uptrend too early. As long as the fundamentals doesn't change I am holding Viropharma until it is fairly valued.
And the fundamentals are stellar for a Biotech stock. It is traded at a PE and PEG much lower than its peers as discussed earlier. The revenue is growing strong based on a combination of price increases and inceased prescriptions:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3060;image)
You would normally expect the revenue to go down in Q2 and Q3 but it seems like the resistant strain of C.difficile is rapidly spreading to more and more states.
An article in General Medicine Journal Watch, June 10, 2005 states the Metronidazole is loosing potency in the treatment of C.difficle Colitis.
QuoteAlthough results from older studies confirm that metronidazole is an effective treatment for Clostridium difficile colitis, findings of newer observational reports suggest unusually high rates of treatment failure and relapse.
The article goes on to say:
QuoteAmong patients diagnosed with C. difficile colitis at a Quebec hospital, the proportion who required vancomycin after initial metronidazole was about 10% annually from 1991 through 2002. In 2003 and 2004, during a local C. difficile colitis epidemic, that number rose to 26%. Among patients treated with metronidazole alone, 60-day recurrence rates were about 20% from 1991 through 2002 and then jumped to 47% in 2003 and 2004. Risk for recurrence was particularly high (58%) among older patients (age, 65).
This is supported by sales numbers for sales of Vancocin from wholesalers to pharmacies, which indicates that quarter over quarter, growth in Vancocin sales dollars from the first quarter 2005 to the sceond quarter 2005 is 45%.
Dear Michael,
I will increase my position tomorrow.
to get the 100, I will applaud you.
Michael,
You're a good man for taking all the time and effort on VPHM. I feel as though you are our personal savior here. Applaud again.
Whats the consenus expected EPS for VPHM, and when is the earning realse time/date?
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.e8785ae647c03f405508c11eb04bd38bd6571f8436496a4157f057d82663706f
VPHM: Lazard Freres Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $15; Analyst Notes
Monday , August 01, 2005 08:23 ET
Issuer: Viropharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Lazard Freres
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $15.00
Analyst Comments: The firm expects robust Vancocin sales trends to continue.
and
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=40733
08:24 VPHM ViroPharma started with a Buy at Lazard; tgt $15 (11.59 )
Lazard initiates VPHM with a Buy and $15 tgt. Firm expects recent robust Vancocin sales trends to continue, driving earnings growth. Also, HCV-796 for hepatitis C and Maribavir for cytomegalovirus offer potential for further upside, and they note that substantial debt reduction during Q2 has reduced balance sheet risk
Thanks Oliver! What a nice way to start a new trading day.
It is very encouraging to see that Lazard Freres wanted to make sure that their recommendation came out before the earnings.
Stocky, here are the earnings estimates from Zacks.
This Quarter Next Quarter This Year Next Year
Average Estimate 0.10 0.07 0.47 0.51
Number of Estimates 3 3 3 3
Low Estimates 0.05 0.02 0.34 0.36
High Estimate 0.14 0.12 0.60 0.68
Year Ago EPS -0.20 -0.13 -0.73 0.47
EPS Growth 148.33% 153.85% 164.84% 8.45%
They look very impressive but i think there is a good chance that the actual figures will be even better. Earnings for this quarter will be released on wednesday.
Mike
Thanks for the insightful fundamental analysis, it looks strong !.
It's interesting to observe from daily chart that the pps was actually moving sideways covering an 8 days period (22/6 - 1/7) after it reached recent high of 7.37 (21/6), then it continued its advance from 5/7 to 20/7 (made up of 12 bars and pps increased by about $ 5.63), we are seeing the same pattern with today being the 8th day of moving sideways from 20/7 high of $ 12.58, my guess is that on 2/8 the pps will resume its upward climb from current level $ 11.60 to est $ 17.23 ( 11.60+5.63) and change within 12 days more or less. Let us hope so !
JMHO
Bought and added to it three times in the last two months. Seems to be on a mission, if any of there trials turn positive they would be ripe for a buy out.
Love this site, just sent a pay pal this am. Best money spent in a long time. ;D
wont play the earnings, but goodluck for all those braved selloff and held on VPHM. Great trade.
Great stock pick here. I'm not playing the earnings either. I wanted to highlight for everyone a message board that is focused on quality and even gives away cash prizes. It is where I first heard of the stock from. It is called the Stock Arena. I encourage everyone to check it out. Life Time Membership is just 1 dollar.
www.stockarena.com?r=529
So the big question today is whether or not to hold over the earnings. As the earnings are due today it might be worthwhile to take a look at what we can expect:
We know that they will have some significant one time cost in connection with the convertible bonds, which will lower the earnings this quarter. Earnings are therefore most likely going to be below last quarter's earnings. This is already included in the forecast (Q1: 0.36, Q2 est.: 0.10).
We also know that they probably are going to increase the forecasted revenue for 2005. They previously guidance was revenue in the $74 million to $79 million range. This would mean that the revenue in the last 3 quarters would be lower than Q1. I am pretty sure that Q2, which is normally a weak quarter, will exceed Q1.
We also know that VPHM are not paying royalties to Ely Lilly for sales exceeding $65 million so any increase in sales above the previous announced range will almost completely be reflected in the net profit. I would therefore expect that they guide net profit before extraordinary items up. Most likely not directly but it should be pretty clear from the reported figures.
WPHM has been very silent about their pipeline for a long time. I don't expect them to make an announcement in connection with the earnings but any news about the trials or milestone payments could really put the stock on fire.
Piper Jaffray has upgraded the stock ahead of earnings and Lazard Freres made a point of initiating their coverage before earnings. Based on my experience with analysts I don't think they would have done so if they weren't pretty sure Q2 would surprise to the upside.
All in all a pretty bullish picture so I am holding over earnings.
Mike
Press Release Source: ViroPharma Incorporated
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Second Quarter and Six-Month 2005 Financial Results
Tuesday August 2, 5:04 pm ET
Company Reports Record Revenue; Increases Guidance for 2005
EXTON, Pa., Aug. 2, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the second quarter and six-months ended June 30, 2005.
Net sales of Vancocin(r) were a record $28.8 million for the second quarter of 2005 and $49.9 million for the first six months of 2005. Operating income in the second quarter and six months of 2005 was $18.7 million and $36.1 million, respectively, compared to operating losses in the second quarter and six months of 2004 of $3.6 million and $18.5 million, respectively. The increases in operating results from 2004 to 2005 were driven primarily by sales of Vancocin and the related cost of sales.
Net income improved over the second quarter and six-months of 2004 to $5.0 million and $22.4 million, respectively, compared to a net loss of $5.4 million and $22.0 million for the same periods in 2004. Net income per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2005 was $0.15 per share, basic, and $0.11 per share, diluted, compared to a net loss of $0.20 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004. Net income per share for the six-months ended June 30, 2005 was $0.75 per share, basic, and $0.44 per share, diluted, compared to a net loss of $0.83 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004. The primary drivers of the change from net loss in 2004 to net income in 2005 were the effects of improved operating income , partially offset by debt-related costs and income tax expense in 2005.
``We are very proud of our financial endeavors during the second quarter of 2005, particularly as it relates to the continued performance of Vancocin; prescriptions for the product were up 39% over the same period last year, and up 30% over the first quarter of 2005,'' commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. ``During the quarter, thanks to the performance of Vancocin, we were able to improve our operating income over the first quarter of 2005, and make significant improvements to our capital structure, as we reduced the principal amount of our debt by $97.6 million through the end of June 2005. Following the end of the quarter, we have reduced our debt even further, and as of today have only $86.7 million in outstanding debt. In addition to our operating momentum, we are also proud of our continued progress in our clinical programs.''
Operating Highlights
Net sales of Vancocin were $28.8 million and $49.9 million for the first three and six-months of 2005, driven by prescription demand and price increases. Prescriptions increased 31% for the first six months of 2005 compared to the first six months of 2004. Additionally, net sales of Vancocin increased 37% over the first quarter of 2005, primarily resulting from the increase in prescriptions and the effect of the price increase realized beginning in April 2005. There were no comparable net sales in the 2004 periods, as the company acquired Vancocin from Eli Lilly and Company in November 2004.
The six-month 2005 period also included $6.0 million in revenue from the sale of inventory to Schering-Plough pursuant to the license agreement between the companies.
The gross margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased in the second quarter of 2005 to 85% from 83% in the first quarter of 2005, primarily due to the April 2005 price increase. The gross margin rate was 84% for the six-months ended June 30, 2005.
The total costs and expenses associated with operating income (loss) were $10.3 million and $5.4 million, for the second quarter of 2005 and 2004, respectively, and $20.1 million and $22.0 million, for the six-months of 2005 and 2004, respectively. These changes reflect the net effect of increases related to the Vancocin cost of sales and intangible amortization and decreases related to research and development and marketing, general and administration expenses. These changes primarily resulted from the Company's purchase of Vancocin and the results of the Company's January 2004 restructuring, which included $9.3 million of costs recorded in the six months ended June 30, 2004.
For the first time since inception, the Company recorded a $3.8 million income tax expense in the second quarter of 2005, which is based on a combined federal and state estimated annual effective tax rate of 15%. This resulted from the Company's preliminary study on the availability of net operating loss carryforwards, which indicates that, assuming the Company is profitable, it should be able to utilize all carryforwards over future years, but with annual limitations. As such, the Company believes that taxable income will exceed available carryforwards for 2005.
Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of June 30, 2005 exceeded the minimum net sales threshold of $44.0 million by approximately $6.0 million and the Company recorded additional purchase price of $2.9 million to intangible assets in June 2005 and established a corresponding liability to be paid in the third quarter of 2005.
Debt Highlights
During the second quarter of 2005, the Company recorded a charge of $7.6 million for the change in fair value of derivative liability that relates to the make-whole provision on the senior convertible notes, which are no longer outstanding. This change in the second quarter resulted in a charge of $4.0 million for the first six-months of 2005.
The Company recorded a $1.2 million net gain related to the repurchase of $41.2 million of subordinated convertible notes for $39.8 million in the second quarter of 2005. The net gain is comprised of the gross gain of $1.4 million less the write-off of $0.2 million of deferred finance costs.
The increases in both periods for interest expense were due to the interest, amortization of financing costs, and debt discount from the senior convertible notes, issued in January and April 2005. Interest expense also includes the $0.6 million related to the beneficial conversion feature for the auto-conversion of the senior convertible notes in June 2005.
During the second quarter of 2005, the initial investors in the senior notes exercised their purchase option and acquired an additional $12.5 million of the senior convertible notes. In addition, the Company reduced the debt principal by $97.6 million through $41.2 million of purchases of convertible subordinated notes and by $56.4 million as a result of conversions of senior convertible notes. The Company had $102.1 million in principal amount of notes outstanding as of June 30, 2005, which was further reduced by $15.4 million in July 2005 as a result of the Company affecting an auto-conversion on the remaining senior convertible notes. As of July 12, 2005, the senior convertible notes were no longer outstanding.
Cash Highlights
As of June 30, 2005, ViroPharma assets included approximately $39.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, which represents a $4.3 million decrease from December 31, 2004. This decrease is primarily the net result of cash used of $46.6 million on repurchases of convertible subordinated notes and make-whole payments on the senior convertible notes and cash received for the $12.5 million related to the exercise of the purchase option by the holders of the senior convertible notes in April 2005. In addition, Vancocin sales increased net cash.
Looking ahead in 2005
ViroPharma is updating its previously announced guidance for the year 2005 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a complete discussion and disclosure of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below. The Company's guidance does not include non-operating expenses or income.
For the year 2005, ViroPharma expects the following:
-- Net product sales: $100 to $105 million, representing growth
of 85% to 94% over unaudited net product sales of Vancocin
in 2004;
-- Cost of sales: $15 to $17 million;
-- Research and Development: $11.5 to $14.5 million;
-- Marketing, General and Administrative: $10 to $13 million;
-- Net cash flows provided by operations: At least $40 million.
Conference Call and Webcast
ViroPharma is hosting a live teleconference and webcast with senior management to discuss the financial announcement, guidance, and other business results on August 3, 2005 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. To participate in the conference call, please dial (800) 391-2548 (domestic) and (302) 709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
Alternatively, the live webcast of the conference call can be accessed via ViroPharma's website at http://www.viropharma.com. Windows Media or Real Player will be needed to access the webcast. An audio archive will be available at the same address until August 17, 2005.
Link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/050802/83192.html?printer=1
From news release
For the year 2005, ViroPharma expects the following:
-- Net product sales: $100 to $105 million, representing growth
of 85% to 94% over unaudited net product sales of Vancocin
in 2004;
-- Cost of sales: $15 to $17 million;
-- Research and Development: $11.5 to $14.5 million;
-- Marketing, General and Administrative: $10 to $13 million;
-- Net cash flows provided by operations: At least $40 million.
Conference Call and Webcast
;)
quick analysis from my side:
net sales higher as expected average estimation:
28.8 Mio$ vs. 26.6 Mio$
average estimation higher as expected:
0.11 $ per share vs. 0.10$ per share
VPHM rises outlook for 2005 net product sales:
Net product sales : $100 to $105 million, representing growth of 85% to 94% over unaudited net product sales of Vancocin in 2004
Michael & David,
your analysis is appreciated !
Summarization Link:
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.22040515d4a28d7d5ae66872868c4fbf15ebc1fadccdd1043dd9ad5b9e8168b0
VPHM: Q2 Results 11c vs (20c); Beats 9c Est; Provides Guidance
Tuesday , August 02, 2005 17:07 ET
QUARTER RESULTS
Viropharma Incorporated (VPHM) reported Q2 results ended June 2005. Q2 Revenues were $28.97M; +1,536.44% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +8.93%. Q2 EPS was 11c; +155.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +22.22%.
Q2 RESULTS Reported Year-Ago Y/Y Chg Estimate SURPRISE
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Revenues: $28.97M $1.77M +1,536.44% $26.59M +8.93%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
EPS: 11c (20c) +155.00% 9c +22.22%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
QUARTERLY GUIDANCE:
Company provided NO Revenue guidance for next quarter.
Company provided NO EPS guidance for next quarter.
ANNUAL GUIDANCE:
Company provided the following guidance for Coming-YR Revenue: "Net product sales of $100 to $105 million"
Company provided NO EPS guidance for coming year.
ADDITIONAL COMMENTARY:
VPHM expects net cash flows provided by operations of at least $40 million for 2005.
Hi Oliver,
Excellent result from Viropharma as expected. Now we can wait for the analysts to upgrade their EPS estimates and hopefully price targets.
The Average forecasted EPS for this year is 0.47, which obviously is too low after Q2.
The EPS for H1 is 0.44 diluted. Based on the guidance for the full year I estimate the 2005 EPS at 0.85 diluted with a cash flow per share of 0.89. The resulting PE is 14.7.
Is that cheap for a profitable fast growing Biotech company? You bet it is cheap! VPHM should trade at a PE of at least 30 or a PPS 25.5
It is worth to note that the forecasted revenue for Q3 and Q4 is lower than revenue in Q2. That is highly unlikely having in mind the trend in the spread of C.difficile and that Q2 normally is a seasonal weak quarter. I understand why the company would like to be conservative but expect the revenue to be higher than the guidance. I estimates approximately 109 million which will result in an EPS of 0.96
Please also remember that the management is looking into a non-dilution approach to cancel the outstanding convertible notes. This will obviously increase the diluted EPS even further.
It seems to me that Piper has been controlling the share price since around May with excellent timing of their recommendations. We will most likely see this continue with an "orderly" up trend for the rest of the year.
Will VPHM hit 25.5? Of course it will. It will also exceed 25.5 that is only a matter of time.
It might happen this year but to be honest I don't have a clue! Sometimes a share can only go up at a certain speed and it seems to me like VPHM is cruising at that speed.
I don't expect anything drastically to happen during the coming days unless we have some activity from the analysts.
Let me finally add that there will be a neat stream of announcements during Q3 and Q4 about the different trials they are running. I haven't taken this into account when I look at PPS target. Any positive announcement on any of the three drugs they have in the pipeline might have an explosive effect on the price.
I agree with Michael, spectacular results from VPHM. I want to thank Michael for sharing with us his fundamental analysis, great, great info :D
Now let me give you my humble general market knowledge and technical input:
1) Buy the rumor, sell the fact. The rumor was this company was growing a lot, and that Q2 results would be higher than expected. That's why the stock came from $1.7 to $13 in just 3 months. Now the news is out, time to take profits I believe ...
2) I want to buy this stock, whenever I have a chance to buy at support. The ascending trendline today will stand at $9.10.
3) Perhaps I won't be able to buy at support, when a stock is really bullish it doesn't let you do that ... then I'll have to chase this higher, no problem with that.
But my thinking for today is that it's possible VPHM gets sold off on the news, I'll buy the stock if it touches $9.10 (I don't believe this, though support rises everyday, so it is possible I'll buy at support but at a higher level)
Good morning and good luck for those holding VPHM, a stellar performer :-*
Excellent Michael (applaud), if it falls to David's target I'll add more. My present cost basis is 8.00. Looking forward to the CC.
Thanks tommyt!
While we wait for the CC to start I thought I would show a picture of David chasing VPHM: (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3247;image)
but David might be right. The stock could be volatile in the coming days. For those unlucky members that are still not holding VPHM there might be some good buying opportunities.
With all respect for David's skills (which is indisputable!) I would not wait to 9.10 before buying in.
After hours trading was all over the place. Tried to sell half my position early yesterday and Ameritrade did not respond, a first. So I took that as an omen to hold. I think my first instincts were probably correct.
Volatility seems to be the right word. The stock went up and down 10% within minutes offering a lot of buying opportunities.
Now the upgrades start to come in. Piper has upgraded their target to 16 and reiterated their strong buy recommendation.
David you might consider to increase your bid a bit ;)
Piper raises EPS from .47 to .85.
Hmmmm........ Does Piper steal from 3SOF:
Quote from: Michael on August 03, 2005, 06:58:40 AM
The EPS for H1 is 0.44 diluted. Based on the guidance for the full year I estimate the 2005 EPS at 0.85 diluted with a cash flow per share of 0.89. The resulting PE is 14.7.
What Surprises me is that they only raise the target to 16 when they almost double the EPS estimate but I guess that a 30% increase will do for now. They will still have time to make yet another upgrade ;D
Nice comeback with VPHM today, almost fell out of chair when that bad tick of 11.60 went through. Its bounced back and extended itself nicely. It's the least watched stock in my portifolio.
What bothered me today was Cramer's Mad Money. A caller asked about VPHM and Cramer says "I don't know...., VPHM, these guys are good guys, they're from my neighborhood...., but I don't know this whole viro, antiviro thing..., maybe...., why not go with the big players, best of breed..., they are a small company, why not go with DNA?"
If he doesn't know, why not just end with that? Probably see a pullback/buy opprotunity tomorrow.
This guy is conflicted.
his answer to any stock query is:
Why don't you buy: MOT, ECA, CHK, VLO etc..............
I should call him up and ask if any pharm companies are working on a cure for his baldness!
BUY DNA!!! BOOOYA
I normally get chills whenever he mentions one of my stocks - so I bt some MOT so I can play along at home.
Lol, very funny stuff on this thread. Well, my bid for VPHM is rising everyday, for today I have it at $9.41.
It rises $0.12 everyday, so in 10 days I'll be buying at $10.61 and in 20 days I'll be a buyer at $11.81, close to current levels.
We'll see, probably I'll just have to chase it higher :)
VPHM is coming down a bit today, I have my bid at $9.42, anyone wants to sell? ;D
La-onda, I don't understand the article. Please explain a little, what impact does this have.
Thanks very much.
to be honest, I couldn´t give your more analysis on this, I´m not familiar with this topic!
???
Michael, any idea?
;)
QuoteBUYINS.NET: Naked Short Web Site announces PARL, UBNK, VPHM, RCOV, VACM have also been removed from threshold lists today
Monday , August 08, 2005 10:39 ET
This means the stock has not so many shorts now, I believe. That's bearish because when there's many shorts, they will need to cover in the future and that will add demand.
My buy order for today on VPHM is at $9.53, growing a bit everyday :o
The naked short list identifies positions that have exceeded the settlement date of the trade. Stocks settle in three days. When you initiate a short sale you have three days to borrow the stock or deliver. Normally you can get an extension for up to ten total days. However,if you can't then you are known to be failing and the trade can be closed out by the firm where you iniated the trade . The SEC has stated that they were going to closely monitor naked shorts. Therefore the list. Why? Because a market maker, hedge fund,or individual could continue to sell stock that can't be borrowed. In some situations you can see a stock that has market positions exceeding the outstanding float. When a stock exceeds the guidelines of the naked short list it is posted. One could assume that something is amiss when the naked shorts are this high. The reason that the stock goes off this list is those short are forced to cover. unlike a settled short sale these naked shorts must cover. You can all imagine what the market would be like if a Market Maker could just continually sell you stock with out this rule. The naked short position when being reduced indicates that those sellers were forced to cover. Hope this helps.
thanks 1reilly
;)
Quote from: David Randolph on August 09, 2005, 09:41:33 AM
My buy order for today on VPHM is at $9.53, growing a bit everyday :o
Great news! I have done a little forecasting on VPHM and it seems like you will be a happy shareholder in April 2006. The PPS will be 30.7 (168 trading days at 0.12 per day) ;D
Actually, I think VPHM will drop back close to 10 very soon.
There is a gap from 10 to 10.38 or so that needs to be filled.
Also, looks like the direction of the latest downtrend is headed that way soon. If oil is up tomorrow, then probably will see a continuation of downward movement.
Then should bounce back up for awhile... maybe to 11.50 or so.
Then down, if the wave count is correct.
still holding >:D
updated chart:
Hello,
David left me instructions to buy back VPHM if the support was tested.
That's exactly what I'm doing right now ;)
Bought VPHM @ 9.89 for the 3 Stocks Onfire Portfolio.
The chart speaks for itself.
Best Regards,
Man I gotta watch those lines better. Got in too early today
1500 @ 10.24
Where is the support on VPHM?
Man I gotta watch those lines better. Got in too early today (if you wondered why it continued dropping - Art got in !!!) 1500 @ 10.24 Down 4% already .
Another xpensive lesson ;)
Good Luck to all
For volatile stocks linear charts are often used as was done - this is a log chart and you can see that the trend line break would have gotten you out of the stock a few days ago.
The stock is now below the lower band so may bounce in here or look to the 50 day EMA at 9.13 which would be a nice place also.
The linear that was used will probably work out but I just wanted to point out the two variants as it is good to check them both on stocks that have had big moves. Most of the time I use log charts as they work more for the average stock or index.
(http://xs41.xs.to/pics/05325/vprolog1208.jpg)
Quote from: Adam on August 12, 2005, 12:55:29 PM
Where is the support on VPHM?
The exact spot of the ascending support line is:
$9.78, which by coincidence or not is exactly the low of the day.
I'm also tempted to buy but what if it closes below 9.78$, can we expect a further drop if this happens?
Currently it's at 9.75 ...
I'm in for 180 shares.. lets see what happens
I'm also in, bought 267 shares at 9.80$!
Let's rebound on monday or even better, today!!! ;D
Also in VPHM at exactly 9.89 though bought just a second before 3SF mail alert. :)
Quote from: metro on August 12, 2005, 01:02:25 PM
For volatile stocks linear charts are often used as was done - this is a log chart and you can see that the trend line break would have gotten you out of the stock a few days ago.
The stock is now below the lower band so may bounce in here or look to the 50 day EMA at 9.13 which would be a nice place also.
The linear that was used will probably work out but I just wanted to point out the two variants as it is good to check them both on stocks that have had big moves. Most of the time I use log charts as they work more for the average stock or index.
(http://xs41.xs.to/pics/05325/vprolog1208.jpg)
Nice input metro ! (applaud)
Quote from: Se7en on August 12, 2005, 01:08:54 PM
I'm also tempted to buy but what if it closes below 9.78$, can we expect a further drop if this happens?
Currently it's at 9.75 ...
Yes, that's exactly the risk on this trade. The support level will be our stop level.
This is a technical play, we are beting on the support reactin, and also we think VPHM is too much oversold on the short term.
This is a dumb question, but I've never placed a stop order before.. How would I do it.. I'm on Ameritrade and do I choose
a.) stop market
b.) stop limit
c.) stop %
d.) stop $
I bought in at $9.82 , where should i place the stop and what type? thanks in advance
Dont know about ameri but in scottrade I sometimes uses STOP. Which in your case may be STOP $.
Due to the volatile nature of VPHM, I wont dare to put a stop, however, will analyse it 'end of the day'.
Can't say where you should put the stop, b/c I am not doing it myself.
Options Expire at close Fri Aug 19 2005, will this have any impact on the pps next week?
TRUNK: ;)
NOT a dumb question!
I once had a danish "penny-stock" that was taking off like a rocket...but I had to leave the computer and wanted to set a stop, just in case something bad happened.
Thought it over, found a good price, - and sold them all by mistake! ::) ::) ::)
Same problem as you have: what does the terms mean?
Haven't used that function since!
The stock rallied out of reach, without me.
Call/write your broker - and don't take chances ;)
Good luck to you.
Thanks for the heads up, l got in @9.85, just missed the 9.80 by seconds :o
In scottrade I, too, use STOP. When I first read the confusing instructions (I even wrote Scottrade who was very helpful) , I experimented with ONE share. If it sold by mistake, I figured I hadn't lost all that much.
Stops still scare me. David talks about 30% loss's. That scares me also. I guess it's because I'm still not all too sure about my chart reading skills (as was evident today). All a continuous process, and now that I'm retired I can continue learning till my 401k is all gone :P (dont tell my wife I said that :D)
After Hours: 10.26 +0.06 / +0.59% Vol. 500
I can answer 2 for sure......
a.) stop market - when the price hits this level your shares will be sold at the market price. For example if you have 1,000 shares and a stop at 9.60 as soon as a trade occurs at 9.60 your shares would sell for whatever the the highest bid (market) price is. In theory you could have 500 sell at 9.60 and another 500 sell at 9.59 etc.
b.) stop limit - when the price hits this level your shares will be sold at the price you designate or higher. If you have 1,000 shares and a stop limit of 9.60 you guarantee they will all sell for at least 9.60. The risk on this is if the market gaps substantially down you may not sell your shares. For example if a trade went off at 9.60 and the next bid was at 9.57 and they continued downward your shares would not sell
c.) stop % - While not certain, I'll wager this is a way for you to put a stop in at a certain % of loss - Say if the stock drops 12% it automatically triggers your sell order. What is not clear is if it becomes a market or limit order
d.) stop $ - No guess
BTW - all of these orders are also useful in buys, say your looking to buy on a dip in price, or if your looking for a stock to run at a certain price.
Hope that helps, but you really should look at Ameritrades FAQ section for definitive answers
Thanks guys, (applauded) That was all a very helpful education on stop orders.. Thankfully we didn't need to worry about those stop orders getting tripped today since VPHM had a solid close.
TRUNK, You must have misunderstood, the limit loss order is good throughout the day, if the stock falls to any predetermined level it will trigger the sell.
virg
What a great end of an otherwise mixed week. 3SOF is holding VPHM again :D
I am off for a week to Mozambique (Thinking about moving there so we will be lookiing for a house)
I will be off line during the week but I am holding the following stocks (without any stop loss!):
VPHM
CRYP
XING
AOB
NLG.TO
ESO.TO
DNDN
DHB
RANGE
BNT
NLG.TO will release their earning figures on Monday and AOB might also release fugures next week. RANGE might release their 20F. All in all an exciting week ahead, so I am really excited to come back and see how the stocks performed!
Good luck to everybody and especially David. You are missed!
I'm glad I saw the 3stocksonfire post on the yahoo message board. I was about in panic mode. (finger hovering over the sell button). Should have sold before earning at $13.
and bought it back today. It looks like you hit support about to the penny. Picked up another hundred at $9.84. Just want to say thanks.
1-Aug-05 Lazard Freres Initiated Buy
8-Mar-05 Piper Jaffray Initiated Outperform
Can someone explain the macd on this chart? Is it simply displaying a pullback?
And could someone explain the ADX chart also please. The DI -&+ are both crossing. That is a positive right? So why is the ADX still trending down? Is it also just displaying a pullback?
Is hitting the support level enough to cause us to think "this is it"! This is a tremendous lesson learner chart, it seems, for all of us. I appreciate you, in the know, taking your valuable time explaining to the me and the rest of us so we can learn from 'the masters'.
TIA!!!
So many interesting posts to review at this VPHM thread, that's great :D I'll try to answer some of them:
QuoteHello,
David left me instructions to buy back VPHM if the support was tested.
That's exactly what I'm doing right now Wink
Bought VPHM @ 9.89 for the 3 Stocks Onfire Portfolio.
The chart speaks for itself.
Good job Fred, thanks.
QuoteMan I gotta watch those lines better. Got in too early today
1500 @ 10.24
You sure do Art, why the $10.24, any particular reason? Maybe you just wanted to buy on a pullback, and since VPHM is enjoying a bull trend, nothing wrong about not buying at the exact support. You did well I believe.
QuoteWhere is the support on VPHM?
For today the ascending trendline will stand at $10.08. It rises $0.12 everyday.
QuoteThe linear that was used will probably work out but I just wanted to point out the two variants as it is good to check them both on stocks that have had big moves. Most of the time I use log charts as they work more for the average stock or index.
I agree Metro, but first I look to use the normal scale (just keeping it simple), and then, when that's impossible to do, I'll look for the semi-log scale. VPHM has a perfect trendline on the regular scale chart, and the trendline on the semi-log chart isn't valid, it doesn't has 3 touches and reactions on it.
But always checking the two scales is wise, thanks for the input Metro.
Se7en said:
QuoteI'm also tempted to buy but what if it closes below 9.78$, can we expect a further drop if this happens?
Currently it's at 9.75 ...
Ramsburg answered:
QuoteYes, that's exactly the risk on this trade. The support level will be our stop level.
This is a technical play, we are betting on the support reaction, and also we think VPHM is too much oversold on the short term.
Well, not so fast. First, I never day trade, so if I buy at support I won't be selling that day just because support was broken on close. I'll coldly analyze after the close and decide for the next day's session.
Also, VPHM isn't just a technical play, it is a fundamental play too.
QuoteThis is a dumb question, but I've never placed a stop order before.. How would I do it.. I'm on Ameritrade and do I choose
a.) stop market
b.) stop limit
c.) stop %
d.) stop $
I bought in at $9.82 , where should i place the stop and what type? thanks in advance
You shouldn't place any stop. Don't consider intraday moves. Let me try to answer your questions about stop orders:
a.) stop market - If your stop price is hit your broker will sell your stocks at the market.
b.) stop limit - If your stop price is hit your broker will put a limit sell order on the market with the price limit you've placed on the order. For example, «if VPHM hits $9.5 I want to sell, but only until $9.40, not below that level»
c.) stop % - It depends on your broker, it can be «sell at the market if I'm losing 10%», or «sell at the market if the stock is down 10% on the day»
d.) stop $ - Also depends on the broker. It can be «sell if I'm losing $1000 on this stock», or «sell if I'm losing $1000 on this stock today».
Quote
Due to the volatile nature of VPHM, I wont dare to put a stop, however, will analyse it 'end of the day'.
Can't say where you should put the stop, b/c I am not doing it myself.
I agree with stocky !
QuoteOptions Expire at close Fri Aug 19 2005, will this have any impact on the pps next week?
I would keep it simple and forget about options.
QuoteStops still scare me. David talks about 30% loss's. That scares me also. I guess it's because I'm still not all too sure about my chart reading skills (as was evident today). All a continuous process, and now that I'm retired I can continue learning till my 401k is all gone Tongue (don't tell my wife I said that Cheesy)
Lol Art. Hey, 30% is my absolute limit stop, my maximum pain level on any given position, but usually I take much smaller losses. Art, from reading your posts, your concern about the 4% intraday loss on VPHM I wonder how much diversification do you have? It's a common mistake, a beginners mistake, to put all eggs in one basket. On the US stock market your 401K won't live long if you don't do proper diversification. As a rule, you can't put more than 20% of your trading capital in just one stock, you just can't. And 20% is a lot, I don't put more than 6.66% in any given position, but 20% would be my absolute limit, regardless of the size of the account.
Well, I need another post to continue answering your great posts on VPHM, or no one would read this one, being so big ... ;)
QuoteI can answer 2 for sure......
a.) stop market - when the price hits this level your shares will be sold at the market price. For example if you have 1,000 shares and a stop at 9.60 as soon as a trade occurs at 9.60 your shares would sell for whatever the the highest bid (market) price is. In theory you could have 500 sell at 9.60 and another 500 sell at 9.59 etc.
b.) stop limit - when the price hits this level your shares will be sold at the price you designate or higher. If you have 1,000 shares and a stop limit of 9.60 you guarantee they will all sell for at least 9.60. The risk on this is if the market gaps substantially down you may not sell your shares. For example if a trade went off at 9.60 and the next bid was at 9.57 and they continued downward your shares would not sell
Thanks for the explanation KCScott. Just didn't understand this part:
QuoteBTW - all of these orders are also useful in buys, say your looking to buy on a dip in price, or if your looking for a stock to run at a certain price.
I don't see how a sell stop order might help you buy a stock, but I guess I see what you mean, if you want to buy a stock if a resistance line is broken, say «if STOCK is above $10 buy at the market». I believe almost nobody uses these kind of orders to enter the market, I never did ...
QuoteThankfully we didn't need to worry about those stop orders getting tripped today since VPHM had a solid close.
Yeah 8)
QuoteWhat a great end of an otherwise mixed week. 3SOF is holding VPHM again Cheesy
I am off for a week to Mozambique (Thinking about moving there so we will be looking for a house)
I told you I would buy VPHM again, I just had to ... It was a good thing I didn't have to chase it higher ;D. Going to Mozambique? It's a paradise on earth, at the right places, many friends of mine have been there (even a great friend of mine was born in Mozambique). Perhaps I can help you with the Portuguese ;)
Just check the internet connections there, I don't think they work well, and also be prepared for a lot of electricity power failures ... have a nice holiday trip Michael :)
QuoteI'm glad I saw the 3stocksonfire post on the yahoo message board. I was about in panic mode. (finger hovering over the sell button). Should have sold before earning at $13.
and bought it back today. It looks like you hit support about to the penny. Picked up another hundred at $9.84. Just want to say thanks.
Well jlong, you just need to pay some attention to this board, I'm saying I'll buy VPHM at this ascending support for more than a week now. I'm glad 3 Stocks on Fire helped you make a wise decision.
QuoteCan someone explain the macd on this chart? Is it simply displaying a pullback?
And could someone explain the ADX chart also please. The DI -&+ are both crossing. That is a positive right? So why is the ADX still trending down? Is it also just displaying a pullback?
Is hitting the support level enough to cause us to think "this is it"! This is a tremendous lesson learner chart, it seems, for all of us. I appreciate you, in the know, taking your valuable time explaining to the me and the rest of us so we can learn from 'the masters'.
Art, Art, you're entering complex fields. I've been there and walked away. One shouldn't think too much, stock trading is a simple game. I find 95% of technical indicators are of little value. If you aren't a system trader (oh no, here comes system trading), traditional technical analysis works best. Anyway, let me give you Metastock definitions and ways to analyze MACD and ADX:
MACD: «The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its 9-period signal line. Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line.
A variation of the MACD can be created by plotting the following formula:
macd() - mov(macd(), 9, E)
Then change the indicator line style to a histogram (see Color/Style Page), and plot a 9-period dotted moving average of the indicator.
In a system test of this indicator, sell arrows are drawn when the histogram peaked and turned down and buy arrows are drawn when the histogram formed a trough and turned up.»
ADX:«The basic Directional Movement trading system involves plotting the 14-period +DI and the 14-period -DI on top of each other in the same inner window (see Copying and Moving Indicators). An improved method of displaying these two indicators is to plot their difference using the following formula:
pdi(14) - mdi(14)
Positions should be taken by buying when the +DI rises above the -DI (i.e., the formula shown above rises above zero) and selling when the +DI falls below the -DI (i.e., the formula falls below zero).
These simple trading rules are qualified with the "extreme point rule." This rule is designed to prevent whipsaws and reduce the number of trades.
The extreme point rule requires that on the day that the +DI and -DI cross, you note the "extreme price." If you are long, the extreme price is the low price on the day the lines cross. If you are short, the extreme price is the high price on the day the lines cross.
The extreme point is then used as a trigger point at which you should implement the trade. For example, after receiving a buy signal (the +DI rose above the -DI), you should then wait until the security's price rises above the extreme point (the high price on the day that the +DI and -DI lines crossed) before buying. If the price fails to rise above the extreme point, you should continue to hold your short position.
In Wilder's book, he notes that this system works best on securities that have a high Commodity Selection Index (CSI) value. He says, "as a rule of thumb, the system will be profitable on commodities that have an ADXR value above 25. When the ADXR drops below 20, then do not use a trend-following system."»
A technical analyst always looks for confirmations. The more technical indicators point in one direction, the better. I guess this is stage two of technical analysis. On stage 3 you forget what you learned on stage 2 and turn back to the basics again, which is trendlines, moving averages, support and resistance, volume analysis, candlesticks and not much more.
Thanks for your posts, next my current reading on VPHM.
VPHM did came to the ascending trendline and we bought it for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio at $9.89, 6.66% of capital as usual.
The stock reacted very well to support, volume has increased and the candlestick pattern is a reversal one. Check the charts below and see that VPHM did close above the opening level, making a small white body. This is almost a doji after a downtrend, but with the bullish ingredient of having that small white body.
Considering the candlestick analysis and the volume analysis I have little doubt that for today VPHM will open and rally all day to close at the high of the day, making a beautiful white marubozu.
The consolidation phase is probably over, it's time to attack the $13 level again.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 15, 2005, 06:17:54 AM
Quote
Thanks for the explanation KCScott. Just didn't understand this part:
QuoteBTW - all of these orders are also useful in buys, say your looking to buy on a dip in price, or if your looking for a stock to run at a certain price.
I don't see how a sell stop order might help you buy a stock, but I guess I see what you mean, if you want to buy a stock if a resistance line is broken, say «if STOCK is above $10 buy at the market». I believe almost nobody uses these kind of orders to enter the market, I never did ....
It's a good thing I don't write instruction manuals for a living. LOL. Limit Buy is what I meant.
A long time ago (before streaming tickers) there was a TA theory for stocks breaking out of stage 1 that if a stock rose X% based on it's trading range and the period of time it was in that range, that it was breaking out into a stage 2. Believe it or not some actually followed that theory and would put triggers 3, 4 or 5% above certain flat lined stocks so when they moved they would catch the momentum going up. I never did but had freinds in the late 80's and early 90's that swore it worked.
I'm really glad to have found your site beacuse what I think I know about TA has probably cost me more money I'd ever admit to. This is a great community you've put together. Congrats
Great job picking bottom of trendline, you did it perfectly. Glad to have Ramsburg and David with us. I'm not in and out of this one, I'm speculating that it will be over 20 by flu season.
David, what is your target price for VPHM?
I would like to give another opinion for VPHM:
Since it reached $13, the stock turned down and yes, $9.8 is the support for the straight line drawn by connecting the previous bottoms.
On the other hand, $11 is the resistance point for 9 day EMA.
Because the 9 day emd has turned down. So, if the stock cannot break $11,
it means that it is still in downtrend which started Augutst 2.
Long term: I do agree that one year target around $20 based on its fundamental.
Also, let us use fib to see how the stock will be going:
The stock basically traded up (no correction) from $2 to $13 ($11 gain).
For 38% retracement, it should test $8.82 before reversal.
For 50% retracement, it should test $5.5 before reversal.
Let us see what will happen for the next few trading days.
stock up nicely after hours there was a filing for a price increase on their drug vancocin for about 25% on a 20 capsule pkg. momo should con. tommorrow .once again david beautiful job. be blessed
Good post from the yahoo board
My take on VPHM action so far..
by: rajuramas
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/15/05 04:55 pm
Msg: 45516 of 45537
Here's something a bit different:
There is a Doji formed on Friday at support, strongly suggesting imminent reversal to the upside, and the BBs have gotten rather contracted. The longer stochastic is still cycling down, but the faster stochastic has now signaled:
Here's the charts of the sector.... getting oversold, but only early unconfirmed buy signals as yet:
First target would be $11.59, which is the middle of the BBs, or the 20 sma, and would represent a profit of 13.6%. Personally, I would take partial profits there, then loosen the stop somewhat on the remainder (probably at about 7% - 8% or so depending on where intraday support congregated).
Second target would be $13.00, which is just shy of the contracted BBs (+27%). Third target would be as far as a trailing stop will get you above $13.39 (+ 31%), which represents the 4-year high:
Note the tremendous, sustained surge in volume over the last 6 months. That kind of volume pattern and the volatility are not characteristic of momentum traders. About 45% of the float is held by institutions. Clearly, there's institutional accumulation going on here.
The forward P/E is only 13. The company became profitable this past quarter, with accelerating revenue growth. Revenues for the last 4 quarters were $0.3 million to $0.5 million to $6.5 million to $29 million. Revenues for 2005 are expected to be $100 - 105 million. EPS trends over the past 4 quarters corresponding to these revenues were -$1.12, -$1.03, -.$0.95, and +$0.11.
Debt has been cut in half over the last 6 months or so, and is not bad at $86 million currently (they've got $39 million in cash, and market cap is $500 million). There are few shares held short unfortunately, but the stock is up 580% over the last year.
The downside here given the valuations, the current status of the sector, the orderly uptrend off a prolonged base, the relatively tame volatility, and the recent pullback to pretty good support with oversold conditions all indicates a low risk trade with considerable upside potential. Note also the relatively low correlation with the NDX or QQQQ over the last several months, and the fact that VHPM has greatly outperformed the general market:
VPHM has also greatly outperformed the sector since March or so:
So VPHM is cheap, oversold, has little or nothing in the way of potential trouble signals, has a lot of indication of upside, and is steadily getting stronger in comparison to its sector and the overall market.
This is the sort of trade where risk/benefit indicates a larger position size is warranted IMHO.
AND.... (I've saved the best for last, just for Gush).... VPHM trades options!
up +5% AH!!! :)
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3635298
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure
Effective August 16, 2005, ViroPharma Incorporated (the "Company") is implementing a price increase to wholesalers for sales of Vancocin® Capsules in the United States. The wholesale acquisition cost for a 20 unit package of 125 mg Vancocin Capsules will increase from $195.76 to $242.10 and a 20 unit package of 250 mg Vancocin Capsules will increase from $368.86 to $446.32. This price increase was not contemplated by the guidance issued by the Company on August 2, 2005.
Thanks for your posts on VPHM :D
Yes, we've had good news after the close on VPHM:
«Effective August 16, 2005, ViroPharma Incorporated (the "Company") is implementing a price increase to wholesalers for sales of Vancocin® Capsules in the United States. The wholesale acquisition cost for a 20 unit package of 125 mg Vancocin Capsules will increase from $195.76 to $242.10 and a 20 unit package of 250 mg Vancocin Capsules will increase from $368.86 to $446.32. This price increase was not contemplated by the guidance issued by the Company on August 2, 2005.»
I don't know what is the percentage of sales of Vancocin in total sales of VPHM, anyone has the time to get that information? (it's 2 AM here, I must get up at 6:30, so I'm in trouble ::))
That way we could grasp the impact of these news on the company's overall sales and earnings. Anyway, putting prices up (up a lot I might say) shows the company has pricing power, and pricing power is always a good thing.
In the previous analysis I said:
QuoteConsidering the candlestick analysis and the volume analysis I have little doubt that for today VPHM will open and rally all day to close at the high of the day, making a beautiful white marubozu.
You got that marubozu on the chart below ;D
Now, for tomorrow, the stock will probably open sharply higher, maybe come down to close the opening gap and maybe not, since it was already on its way up to $13 even without these news. And I won't sell at $13, no way, after this successfull test to the ascending trendline I expect a new 52 week high in the stock, above $13.39 to be reached in the coming weeks.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/doctrans/finSys_main.asp?formfilename=0001193125-05-157453&nad=specifically from page 21 and on. david theres the link for their financials hope it helps have a good morning
Hi Dave,
This drug represent 100% of VPHM's revenue I believe. They have a couple of other drugs in the pipe which hopefully we will get update later in the year/early next year.
A 20+% price increase should represent much greater than 20+% increase in EPS as their overhead is fixed. They have a EPS for 2005 at $0.85 (I could be off a bit) and $1+ for 2006. Before today's price increase, $11/sh only represent PE=11 for VPHM. No - I wont' sell at $13. :-)
-Valueseeker
somebody shoot me... I sold way to soon and only got 10.56 for my shares.. :( bad timing on this one, hopefully I'll learn from this
I got in a little late @ 10.73 ...but dave said he won't sell at $13 :D :D :D
I like this!!! ;D 8) :o
Pre-Market Trade Reporting Tuesday August 16
Pre-Market
Last: $12 Pre-Market
Best Bid: N/A Pre-Market
High: $12.18
Pre-Market
Volume: 28,530 Pre-Market
Best Ask: N/A Pre-Market
Low: $11.40
Pre-Market
Time (ET) Pre-Market
Price Pre-Market
Share Volume
08.08 $ 12.18 100
08.08 $ 12.18 100
08.08 $ 12.18 200
08.07 $ 12 800
08.07 $ 12 100
08.07 $ 12 100
08.07 $ 12 500
08.07 $ 12 190
08.07 $ 11.90 500
08.07 $ 11.90 500
08.07 $ 12 100
08.07 $ 12 100
08.07 $ 11.95 100
08.07 $ 11.90 300
08.07 $ 11.98 750
08.07 $ 11.90 900
08.07 $ 11.90 250
08.07 $ 11.90 100
08.07 $ 11.90 100
08.07 $ 11.85 100
08.06 $ 11.80 100
08.06 $ 11.75 176
08.06 $ 11.75 100
08.06 $ 11.75 100
08.06 $ 11.75 100
08.06 $ 11.75 100
08.06 $ 11.75 100
08.05 $ 11.90 100
08.04 $ 12 124
08.04 $ 12 200
08.04 $ 11.99 600
08.04 $ 11.99 376
08.04 $ 11.99 100
08.04 $ 11.98 2000
08.04 $ 11.99 100
08.04 $ 11.97 100
08.04 $ 11.90 300
08.04 $ 11.90 200
08.04 $ 11.90 100
08.04 $ 11.87 400
08.03 $ 11.87 200
08.03 $ 11.85 1000
08.02 $ 11.87 200
08.02 $ 11.99 800
08.02 $ 11.99 100
08.02 $ 11.99 100
08.02 $ 11.87 300
08.02 $ 11.99 100
08.02 $ 11.99 100
08.02 $ 11.99 150
up to 18$ !!1
Coverage Reit/Price Tgt Changed* Sort Alphabetically | Sort by Broker
ViroPharma VPHM Piper Jaffray Outperform $16 » $18
http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/UpgradesDowngrades.htm
:)
Just want to thank the group on VPHM. HAas been on my watch list for some time; As I am a new bie to the sevrvice, when I got the signal I bought 5k shares at 10. Just sold them for quick profit today at 13.07. With reconsideration may have been a bad decision as the old high of 13.33 looks ready to fall now. I am most grateful but never get greedy with a 30% gain in two days!
Well, as I saw VPHM break out to new highs (above 13.33 I think) and got up to 13.80+; I waited for a correction to re-enter. So I re-entered at 13.25 replacing the 5k shares I sold at 13.07 this am. Glad I did as we close at 14.24 or thereabouts. No I am holding. Got a chance to correct my mistake and took that chance when it came.
Thanks to the service once again for being the catalyst for me to get in.
Defenderyou
13.39$ now ... :o :o :o
What's the plan? Let it run?! ;D
I own 20k of VPHM at around 12. Sold 10K at 13.25 and I will keep the other 10K for the ride to 20-25
Did you see the great short report on CNBC: Vphm is a cash cow. WOW ::)
Thanks
F
14.24$ :o ;D
Nice call guys, curious what David has to say about it! :)
Some articles:
ViroPharma's 'Unparalleled Cash Flow'
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/08/16/viropharma-biotechnology-earnings-0816markets16.html?partner=yahootix
ViroPharma shares surge on drug pricing increase
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh26591_2005-08-16_17-37-13_n16160080_newsml
Market Pulse: ViroPharma shares surge on Vancocin price increase
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsmb/050816/6be4d9221855439b8008525e96612adf.html?.v=1
ViroPharma Jumps on Antibiotic Price Hike; Analysts See Little Resistance From Wholesalers
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050816/viropharma_mover.html?.v=1
Strange that with all the news out about VPHM no one
mentions their drug Pleconaril. (From a poster on the Yahoo VPHM mb.)
From the Newsweek June 6 issue:
(The article tells about a class of WIN drugs that fights the rhinovirus, giving
hope of a cure for the common cold.) Closing statements:
But no one has tried WIN compounds on a large scale yet. One called Pleconaril seemed promising a few years ago. then the FDA shot it down,***BUT NOT BECAUSE IT DIDN'T WORK***; it interfered with hormonal birth control. ViroPharma, the maker, is working on a new nasal form. If its mostly free of side effects, it could be on shelves by 2006 (last of this year?). Rhinoviruses, consider this a fair warning! (End)
If the FDA would give approval this might gap $50!
I note that this stock is strongly bought by insiders.
Awesome move from VPHM today. With the Dow down 120 points and the Nasdaq Composite down 30 points, VPHM shoot 30% higher on the second largest volume day in the company's stock market history, which goes way back to 1996.
Even if I wanted I couldn't think of a more bullish chart than the one VPHM has. The stock closed the gap at $12.32 and I sold there, then it had a consolidation phase and a correction down to the ascending support (I bought back the stock at that level), and now completely took out the resistance level to close at another 52 week high.
I see analysts raising their estimates and price targets across the board. One of them rose the price target from $16 to $18.
I'm not on that field, I'm more of a technician than a fundamental analyst, and VPHM lets you dream. A true undervalued biotech company with solid revenue and earnings growth (don't forget the astonishing pricing power) still has a lot of speculative power from other drugs getting FDA approval.
But, wait, what am I doing, didn't I say I was a technician? So, I'll just close my eyes and admire the chart. What do I see? A gap filler, VPHM is filling all those opened gaps from the past.
And the next one will only be filled at $48 a share :o That's my price target, not $18, but $48.
This is not greed, you just have to take all you can from these big winners, those are the stocks that may put your performance head and shoulders above everyone else, above 50% a year, consistently. Cutting profits short is as disastrous to long term performance as letting losses grow.
Good luck for those holding VPHM, always hope your profits will grow more !
Now thats what l call a chart, bought at9.85 on Fri, closed at 14.25 today, in the am it is up to 14.70 what a great find.
Thanks guys,
Virg
$48??????...Holy Shit!
I'm sorry, I...., 48?
I'm in, I'm in, I'm sorry...I don't normally swear. I hope my kids didn't hear me. I am 3000 long @ 8.00. This is why I'm here, this is great..if you take this to 48 you're gonna get one hell of a Christmas present. Let' all go to Vegas for a new year's bash.
Haha, tommyt, you crack me up! ;D
Got in a little late - couldn't sell anything when it dropped below 10 but better late than never! If this goes to $48 and ELN closes it's big gap at $26, Christmas won't be bad here either. ;)
so david! your selling price for VPHM is $48? WOW.... :o
analysts update:
Piper Jaffray analyst Thomas Wei responded by raising his price target for the stock to $18 from $16 and maintained his "Outperform" rating.
"Because Vancocin still represents a very small product in hospital/insurance formularies and is used to treat severe disease, we do not anticipate significant pushback from payors," Wei said in a research note. "We have conservatively assumed that the wholesalers will begin buying Vancocin at the new higher price in early September, similar to the buy-in period allowed in April for the previous price increase."
Wei increased his 2005 earnings per share estimate to 54 cents from 46 cents, on revenue of $109 million, up from $102 million. The analyst also raised his 2006 earnings per share estimate to 90 cents from 72 cents on revenue of $148.8 million, up from $128.3 million. He also boosted his 2007 earnings per share estimate to $1.06 from 91 cents, and his revenue forecast to $166.7 million, from $145.7 million.
Joel Sendek, an analyst with the investment firm Lazard Capital, maintained his "Buy" rating and $17 price target on the stock.
In a research note, Sendek raised his 2005 earnings per share estimates to 87 cents from 83 cents on sales of $111.2 million, up from $106.8 million, but did not change his estimate of 72 cents per share for 2006.
personally I appreciated more Davids price target
hi,
thanks for the great picks david and others,
do you think we will see a lot of profit taking today? or is it "straight to 48!"
thanks
maxi
Quote from: David Randolph on August 16, 2005, 07:22:38 PM
What do I see? A gap filler, VPHM is filling all those opened gaps from the past.
And the next one will only be filled at $48 a share
Hello, can someone educate me on this? What is the driving force to fill gaps? Why must gaps be filled? What is the psychology behind this? Thank you.
Fish
Hi Fish,
A gap is a trading range where the stock have not been traded. If you look at the chart below you will see that VPHM in the start of 2000 closed at 48 and the next day opened at around 15. No trade was made between 48 and 15.
The theory goes that gaps will be closed (I guess because there is no trades there is very little resistance (or support) but there might be some TA guys who can give the "real" explanation.
To be honest I have never seen a gap of this magnitude been closed. Normally gaps are closed over a short period. It would be nice if that would be the case for VPHM as well but it is a hell of a gap
VPHM
Well i scared myself out this morming at 13.50 which is a 37% jump from my 9.85 buyin on Fri.l will be watching this one for any price weakness as they have a great story.
Virg
So many great posts and I get to VPHM so late ... but I always try to follow the order of the buying date, as it shows on the 3 Stocks on Fire page, so the last stock bought is the last to be analyzed.
I want to send regards to Michael, who even in Mozambique takes the time to come here, talk a bit about VPHM and give a theory about gaps, amazing, thanks a lot !
Some years ago I heard Mozambique was launching a stock exchange, did they? Maybe some good investment opportunities there, now that the country is at peace. Amazing how just 31 years ago Mozambique was still a Portuguese colony ... we were at war with them from 1964 to 1974, when the democratic revolution in Portugal opened the doors to the end of war and decolonization. Tell me something Michael, there's more people in Mozambique of Sporting or Benfica? (these are Portuguese football teams, they have a lot of fans there).
Well, where was I? VPHM? This late?
VPHM had a day of profit taking. Volume was lower, the fall didn't damage the short term technical picture (at all - in fact, the stock held above $13.39, the previous intraday high, which is positive).
$48 is a 12 month target. Many positive surprises from VPHM may make the stock jump further than the $28 Michael projected, based just on Vancocin.
Of course, no respectable analyst (talking about those men from the brokerage houses who upgraded VPHM) could say «VPHM is going to $48», he just can't.
And no respectable analyst is able to have a 50% plus a year average performance, he just can't.
It takes a bit of insanity, wild dreams mixed with rigid discipline to achieve that ;)
And the ability to change views ... so I beg for no one to come and say «you said the stock was going to $48» if I have to change my mind and sell at any price. At this moment my belief is the stock will run up to $48. I belief in my beliefs as long as the market believes them too ;D
Hi, Dav:
About the gap in April 2000, It closed at $71.75 on April 10, 2000 and on April 11, the high was $28. Where is the $48 to $15 gap?
I got the quote from yahoo finance
Good question shawfund!
Maybe David did the same mistake as I did and just looked at the longterm chart without going into the details. The devil is in the details and you are right the gap is between 72 and 26.
So David are we talking about a different gap or are we raising the target to 72 ;D
First lets consider that gap issue:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4076;image)
You're right, the gap was from a low of $64 to a high of $28. But, another gap, the $47-$48 gap is the real deal on VPHM:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4077;image)
You see, the stock never traded between $47 and $48. It had a reversal island above $48 so expect a lot of resistance at the $48 level. I believe the stock will go there because being quite above $12.32 I see no significant resistance to the advance until $48 is reached.
Fundamentals warrant a bigger rise and you know how the market usually gets ahead of itself ... A market behavior like VPHM is showing won't stop at fair value, it will go to overvalued, possibly a lot. It's the overshooting of the fundamental turnaround.
But let us analyze this day by day, candle by candle:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4078;image)
Not even in your dreams you could see a chart more bullish than this. I have a 50% profit in just 5 sessions and it doesn't cross my mind selling now, that would be a crime !
Pleaseeeeeeee, let's hope you are right!!! ;D >:D
After today's candle I'm thinking of adding to my position tomorrow.
Hey David, seems like your getting more famous by the day, they already start quoting you! :)
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=48408
To reach Davids $48 target we need a little help from Viropharma's pipeline! So let me try to give some insight to the three drugs which constitutes their existing pipeline: Maribavir, Pleconaril and HCV796.
Maribavir is a drug for the treatment of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) disease. You will probably be surprised to know that you most likely suffer from HCMV.
Cytomegalovirus is a common virus that infects people of all ages and in all parts of the world. In the United States, between 50% and 85% of adults will be infected with CMV by the age of 40. However, in many other countries most people acquire CMV as children or adolescents. Most infections with CMV are "silent," meaning the person infected has no signs or symptoms.
CMV is a real problem for people infected with AIDS, people who's immune system has been suppressed due to organ transplants and for babies who's immune system is not fully developed.
Maribavir was in development by GSK for the treatment of CMV retinitis in HIV+ patients. VPHM acquired the exclusive worldwide rights (excluding Japan) to develop and commercialize maribavir for the prevention and treatment of cytomegalovirus infections related to transplant (including solid organ and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation), congenital transmission (infants), and in patients with HIV infection.
VPHM advanced maribavir into phase 2 clinical trials in patients that have undergone allogenic stem cell (e.g., bone marrow) transplantation in the third quarter of 2004.
It is difficult to estimate the market for Maribavir. The HIV market is obviously the largest but here affordability will be an issue.
The transplant market is smaller but VPHM has focused on this segment. In the U.S. alone, there are approximately 9,000 stem cell transplants, and over 23,000 solid organ transplants on an annual basis.
Finally there is the market for newborns effected with HCMV. Approximately 1% of newborns are infected with CMV. Most of the infected infants will be symptom free; however 10% (about 4,000 infants each year) may have one or multiple abnormalities.
I will not try to put a figure on the revenue potential as it really depends on the side effects of the drug compared to existing drugs on the market (these drugs are quite toxic!!!) but the potential is significant (Higher than Vancocin).
Pleconaril is a cure for the common cold caused by the rhinovirus. I don't think this disease needs any further introduction! According to a 2003 study, the U.S. population suffers 500 million colds a year, at a cost of $40 billion.
Pleconaril works wonders against many, though not all, rhinoviruses. But three years ago, the Food and Drug Administration decided not to approve it, in large part because it seemed to reduce the effectiveness of birth control pills. The new spray seems to resolve this problem and the drug might be on the market as early as next year according to Newsweek.
VPHM has signed an agreement with Schering-Plough and received an initial license fee of $10 million. VPHM will receive further $65 million in Milestone payments. VPHM will in addition receive royalties for the sales of the drug.
If anything can spark a real buying frenzy of VPHM's stock it is probably Pleconaril. Here is a story that can sell newspapers and the publicity and excitement will be huge.
HCV796 is a drug against Hepatitis C. It is estimated that there are at least 4 million Hep C patients in the USA with 175 million worldwide. Current treatments cost about $30,000 per year per patient and are very ineffective. HCV796 is only in phase I but the initial results seem very positive. There are several drugs under development against Hepatitis C so it is again difficult to estimate the market for the drug, but it could be as high as $2 to $3 billion (if not higher depending on the worldmarket!)
As mentioned earlier we should start to see news on all three drugs during the coming 4 months. As always with Biotech stocks the news can be both good and bad. In the case of VPHM I am not so concerned about bad news as it seems like investors are not valuing the stock based on the pipeline but only on the cash flow from Vancocin. Good news on the other hand can really put this stock on fire
Will the options action push this down today?
So would it be ridiculous chasing to buy into VPHM at this time?
Unbelievable, non-stopping run for VPHM.
$20 is not far away.
I don't think that the stock will run up to $48 without a correction (10% - 20% down from its top) along the way.
But $20 near term target without correction is possible.
Long term (one year) to $48 is possible. Look at IMCL, DNA history. If you have a unique market dominant drug, the market will push it into unbelievable levels.
$18 is my target. I just added on the dip @ $14.93
Good luck and God bless.
Jody
added at $14.80 too :)
Do I smell a short squeeze?
I would like to see more TA sustaining every opinion otherwise its a waste of
time .
Do your own DD.
IMO, the MM's were at work. Nice H/S pattern today. Monday, options pressure will be relieved and should make for a nice ride...hopefully. There's always a chance it will pullback and setup a "3-rivers evening doji" but let's hope not.
I'm still in 'till $18.
Caveat emptor o caveat venditor.
I want to thank (and applaud) Michael for giving a fundamental backup to VPHM besides Vancocin (you can read it on page 16 of this thread).
The company has an interesting pipeline indeed.
Technically, this two step forward, one step back is an excellent way for the stock to continue pushing higher. This trembling way of advancing makes a lot of weak hands sell and then they need to buy back higher, fueling the rise. For sure a gap up would end the short term advance phase, because there's so much short term profits to be made, and those are usually made at and after a gap up.
This way, there's no gap up and the stock just keeps on rising, every two days. For example, with the kind of candlestick pattern we got on Friday, if VPHM opens higher on Monday it won't be a gap up (only if it were to open above $15.35, the high of the day), so the higher open has a better possibility to propel prices and give us another long white candle.
I got this knowledge of candlestick theory, which is a powerful short term trading tool, from reading some books on the subject, but specially from watching thousands of charts and making thousands of day trades on the DAX futures.
But we're not making day trades or very short term trades on VPHM. We're long term investors on the stock, for as long as the market agrees with our long term view.
If I did not buy the stock at $9.8, I will not buy the stock on its way up unless I see a
pull back now either at $13 (previous resistance) or $13.8 (short term trendline).
Just my opinion.
But it already pulled back on wednesday and closed at 13.52$ with a low of 13.28$!
PRICES
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
19-Aug-05 14.96 15.35 14.53 14.86 4,054,900 14.86
18-Aug-05 13.43 14.99 13.30 14.87 6,937,800 14.87
17-Aug-05 14.06 14.25 13.28 13.52 6,470,300 13.52
16-Aug-05 12.54 14.48 12.45 14.24 20,571,100 14.24
15-Aug-05 10.25 11.15 10.22 10.99 2,168,600 10.99
12-Aug-05 10.13 10.45 9.74 10.20 2,448,700 10.20
Doji Star Bearish
Pattern: Reversal
Trend: Bearish
Reliability: Moderate
How to Identify it
First day is a long white day
Second day is a doji that gaps in the direction of the previous trend
The shadows of the doji should not be long
What it Means
In an uptrend, the market builds strength on a long white day and gaps open on the second day. However, the second day trades within a small range and closes at or near its open. This scenario generally shows erosion of confidence in the current trend. Confirmation of a trend reversal would be a lower open on the next trading day.
Please read Mr. Randolph's post today. Gotta look at the big picture...I'm sure it'll fall a bit, Newton proved that (what goes up, must come down ;) ). However, it's not a bad sign.
It is still a bullish trend, imo.
yes,
i didn't mean it to show an overall bearish trend, really just to show a possibility for a retracement over a day or a couple of days and then a return to an upswing
thanks,
maxi
VPHM base count was reset with the 8/12 drop to $9.74. So for those who didn't already see this, the 8/16 breakout was a 1st stage breakout. This is just one more indicator of renewed strength for the upcoming trend.
Steve
I still see a strong uptrend - only being held back by Merk.
The talk on the boards is strong. The company has a legitimate product and is headed towards 20.
What a great looking 6 month weekly chart. Gotta love it!!
There's so many people eager to buy VPHM (which probably will be the 2005 star on the Nasdaq) that at the slightest dip a lot of investors on the sidelines jump in and buy. They are afraid of buying at the top so they wait for a pullback to buy. Those pullbacks have been very small, which shows strong demand supporting the advance in prices.
Volume doesn't need to keep on growing for the advance in price to continue, it's very natural that it goes lower after the huge volume of the breakout day.
What's more to say about VPHM today? Nothing, just hold on to your horses !
QuoteThere's so many people eager to buy VPHM (which probably will be the 2005 star on the Nasdaq) that at the slightest dip a lot of investors on the sidelines jump in and buy. They are afraid of buying at the top so they wait for a pullback to buy.
And they did it again today 8)
This is the right way for VPHM to keep moving higher, so we just need to let the stock do her work and take us with her on a marvellous journey to $48 :o
I have been watching and trading VPHM for a while infact right after it started its journey from 2.6. But I was essentially day trading. In the end I settled for peanuts. Last two times I held on this one after david pick it up. So the bottomline is you need to be position trader to get good mileage out of your car [heck stock]. Jumping in and out of VPHM did no good to me and wont be of any benefit to others. On board this bandwagon from 9.89. Will sell only when david do so.
Thanks for your post stocky, nice avatar :)
I will keep VPHM, being a biotech and pharmaceutical sector company it is a defensive play. But here I don't think the thought «defensive is a stock that will go down less» is right ;D
VPHM is extremely bullish, both fundamentally and technically, it may come down a bit due to the general market weakness but that weakness will be short lived.
Again, another marvelous day on VPHM. We can say the stock had a correction (induced by profit taking on lower volume), but underneath demand was so strong that even correcting prices went higher :o
Now volume and momentum are picking up again ... obviously I'll just let the profits run, it looks like VPHM will be the 2005 stock star on the Nasdaq :-*
VPHM is running like Michael Johnson in his old days but how long will it last!? :)
Can someone estimate what's a fair value for the stock at the moment?
Michael has an estimation based solely on Vancocin: $28. My take is this stock will run up to $48, possibly based on some news on the strong pipeline of drugs the company has.
But, thinking day by day as I like to do, the lower open is more of the same on VPHM, it will probably trade higher again by the end of the day.
David - I am very new here and several weeks back you mentioned AVN. Their new CEO was annouced, earnings beat estimates and they are waiting to here from the FDA on drug approval... Any feelings one way or the other... ::)
The technical target is $3.88, I don't know where but I've made some analysis about this target before it broke out.
I don't know anything more about the stock and don't have much time to investigate now, sorry. Perhaps I'll buy it if the uptrend and volume persists. If I had the stock I would take profits at $3.88 and evaluate again.
Good luck !
Quote from: David Randolph on August 26, 2005, 09:26:37 AM
Michael has an estimation based solely on Vancocin: $28. My take is this stock will run up to $48, possibly based on some news on the strong pipeline of drugs the company has.
But, thinking day by day as I like to do, the lower open is more of the same on VPHM, it will probably trade higher again by the end of the day.
Another 1% added to VPHM. Step by step, we're over $17 now. The short, medium and long term trends are bullish. There are no technical or fundamental motives to sell VPHM at this stage.
The fact that we have a 72% profit alone isn't a motive to sell, the stock doesn't even know we exist or at what price we bought. These star stocks are the ones that can put our overall performance for 2005 in the triple digits.
So, I'll continue to hold VPHM for the foreseeable future.
This is Friday's Institutional trading activity for VPHM:
Thanks Michael for the chart paste-in help!
Good Trading! - John
This is a stock for investing, not trading, IMO, and I think a lot of the members here agree.
Friday's volume breaks down to this per Lycos I-watch:
Ok, finally VPHM gave a step back on profit taking. I could think of taking profits too, but I'm afraid I'd lose my position. I have to keep holding the stock, since my analysis says it will go much higher than current prices. I have to be a believer in the trend.
So I'll keep holding VPHM for the foreseeable future.
Institutional trading for Monday
moving average still looking good
From Marketocracy today:
Gurus also took profits where they could in biotechnology. Shares of ViroPharma (nasdaq: VPHM - news - people ) are up 653% in the past year and hit a 52-week high of $17.30 on Aug. 26. The Exton, Pa.-based company develops drugs to treat viral diseases. Gurus took advantage of the 70% gain in the past two weeks and sold out of ViroPharma.
Watch for a buying opportunity - but do not let profits slip away.
In my opinion I would not put much weight into any articles like forbes or what have you, the fundamentals and technicals speak for themselves. VPHM is as strong a horse as you are going to find in this market ;), and the beauty is, its still undervalued!, the market knows this that is why any weakness is met with plenty of buyers.
Good luck to all!
Thanks for your posts on VPHM :)
I believe fantazia is right, VPHM is one of the strongest horses running on the Nasdaq track.
Investors sold off VPHM today because they were taking severe losses elsewhere and needed to compensate those losses with some big profits, like the one they had on VPHM.
I have made that same mistake some times in the past (here, at 3 Stocks on Fire, trying to keep the portfolio percent gain always on top, I've sold some big winners that just continued trending up after I've sold). This happens when you're working for performance, short term performance.
Anyway, i didn't do it this time, and VPHM made a solid recovery by the end of the session, with volume above average. Perhaps weak hands were cleaned up and now they will have to chase the stock higher or lose it. Nobody wants to lose VPHM, I know how that feels, people who sold today on profit taking, for the wrong reasons, will come back to the stock, adding momentum and attracting even more buyers.
I'm absolutely confident that I've made a wise decision on holding VPHM, but the market has the final word, let's hear what he has to say in the coming trading days.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 30, 2005, 06:28:15 PM
Thanks for your posts on VPHM :)
VPHM made a solid recovery by the end of the session, with volume above average. Perhaps weak hands were cleaned up and now they will have to chase the stock higher or lose it. Nobody wants to lose VPHM, I know how that feels, people who sold today on profit taking, for the wrong reasons, will come back to the stock, adding momentum and attracting even more buyers.
I'm absolutely confident that I've made a wise decision on holding VPHM, but the market has the final word, let's hear what he has to say in the coming trading days.
I agree. Your original buy was fantastic timing, I have added on todays action as it touched the 9ema and recovered.
Nice gains today, and a good buy on a pullback yesterday ($1+ gain).
QuoteI agree. Your original buy was fantastic timing, I have added on todays action as it touched the 9ema and recovered.
Thanks Aussietrader :)
No news or technical developments on VPHM yesterday, the uptrend continues pretty much in place. Considering Aussie's comments I've attached the 9 day exponential moving average to VPHM's chart.
VPHM is finding a little resistance on the $17.30 level, but I think that resistance will prove to be short lived. The 9 ema is acting as support on VPHM, today it is standing at $16.13.
The uptrend is still in place, I'm confident on this company's fundamentals, I'll continue holding the stock for the foreseeable future.
It seems like the whole forum is out searching for VPHM clones. Why not buy the original?
Below some insight from an interview on August 31 with Frank Baldino Jr, Michel de Rosen and Vincent Milano in The Philadelphia Inquirer.
It seems like even the management is surprised about the explosion in sales of Vancocin. No wonder the stock market was taken with surprise as well!
Quote"Last year, in 2004, we decided to reinvent the company quite radically," chairman and chief executive officer Michel de Rosen said. "It's the same name but nearly everything is new: new strategy, new focus, new products, new building, new people, new management team. The stock price is just one indicator that some people are paying attention."
In late 2003, ViroPharma took a hard look at its research programs still years away from becoming commercial products. "We had a limited amount of cash, and we were spending cash. We saw the day when that cash would be gone," de Rosen said.
Without a product on the immediate horizon, the company began looking to acquire a medicine already on the market, and settled on Vancocin, which was available because Lilly was getting out of the anti-infectives business.
In October, ViroPharma announced it was buying Vancocin for $116 million. The company had $120 million in cash, and raised $62 million to do the deal. "At that time, our market cap, the value of the company, was one-half of $116 million," de Rosen said. "We signed a check that was worth twice the value of the company to buy the compound."
The gamble paid off. Not even ViroPharma could have predicted how rapidly Vancocin sales would grow.
The drug had sales of $40 million in 2003, $54 million in 2004, and sales in the first half of 2005 were $49.9 million - $21.1 million the first quarter and $28.8 million in the quarter ended June 30.
"We envisioned the growth would eventually be at the levels we are enjoying now, but not within eight months of owning the product," chief financial officer Vincent Milano said.
ViroPharma has raised the price of Vancocin by 47 percent, with the latest hike Aug. 16, surprising analysts and sending the stock price soaring 30 percent. Analysts have predicted peak sales potential for the product of $200 million by 2009.
Since May, ViroPharma has used a combination of cash and conversion of other debt into stock to reduce its $200 million debt by 57 percent, to $86.7 million.
"Six months ago, investors were worried about how ViroPharma was going to pay back this debt," Milano said. "Today, people aren't worried. We have demonstrated we have an ability and a discipline to deal with the debt, and there is confidence in the company that we'll keep doing that."
Frank Baldino Jr., CEO of Cephalon Inc. and a ViroPharma board member since 1995, said ViroPharma "really did reinvent themselves. It's been a great turnaround."
"You have to hand it to Michel de Rosen and the team for staying through the tough times and for making the tough decisions to get them out of trouble," he said.
In the first half of this year, Vancocin prescriptions increased 45 percent because doctors are seeing an increase in the bacterial infection, known as Clostridium difficile-associated disease or CDAD, that Vancocin treats, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Joel Sendek said in an Aug. 3 research report.
In 1992, doctors reported fewer than 5,000 U.S. cases of CDAD, and in 2002 they reported 164,000. And doctors are seeing a more virulent strain of the bacteria, Sendek said.
........
Quote"We are actively working on other business development opportunities," de Rosen said. "We hope that, in the coming 12 months, we could announce one or two deals."
Wondering what other deals they are working on. They certainly know how to make a good deal.....
Thanks for the fundamental info Michael, we really need «one or two more deals» to get VPHM on its way to $48.
For now it looks like the stock found some short term resistance at the $17.30 level. As support we have the 9 ema that today will stand at $16.21, hopefully we'll see some bounce from that level.
Considering the impact of the $17.30 resistance, we need to trust RULE 45 that says the following:
Bear markets have no supports and bulls markets have no resistance
There's no way I'm going to lose on this trade (I bought the stock at $9.89), now I'm going to let the market tell me how much is enough, not my personal judgment.
VPHM is still resting a bit below this new found $17.30 resistance level. The 9 day ema stands at $16.33. I'll continue holding VPHM, I'm positive the stock will soon push higher again.
It has broken resistance ! NICE !
Very solid breakout, 18.03 in afterhours
Hi Tommyt,
Indeed a nice breakout. It seems like the analysts are finally finished looking at the IMS numbers for August. You should see another pop-up when they release their updates (if they update at this point in time)
Piper Jaffray expected an 8.4% decline of Vancocin Sales in Q3 compared to Q2. The August sales were only down 2 compared to July according to IMS so it seems like JP's EPS has to be revised significantly up as expected (with $0.20 to $0.25).
There has been a lot of talk about the sales of Vancocin not being affected by seasonality (as we have not seen the sale drop during summer). I don't think that is the case. I believe that what we are seeing is a rapid spread of C-difficile and that you will have the normal increase in sales during winter just from a higher level.
Let me show a couple of graphs:
Here we go again on VPHM 8)
On the technical front look how the 9 ema is providing support to price (input by aussietrader). On the fundamental side read this explanation from Michael:
QuotePiper Jaffray expected an 8.4% decline of Vancocin Sales in Q3 compared to Q2. The August sales were only down 2 compared to July according to IMS so it seems like JP's EPS has to be revised significantly up as expected (with $0.20 to $0.25).
With help like this we just can't stop making money :D
Now $17.30 will act as support and I'm already seeing $20 on print.
Interesting post from Yahoo board:
I have yet to get excited about yesterday's breakout (low volume compared to their average, as stated in my previous post) is their Bollinger Bands.
Since their new high set on 5/11 VPHM has had a Breakout 5 different times. The first 4 were high volume breakouts. This one was not.
The first breakout was on 5/26 where volume was 690.02% higher than the average with the Bollinger Bands 248.62% wider than normal the day before. More than likely the reason for this breakout being successful, despite the bands being so wide, is because this was near the beginning of the VPHM bull market.
The second breakout was on 7/5 where the volume was 288.47% higher than average with the Bollinger Bands 51.35% wider than normal the day before. Breakout successful...
The third breakout was on 8/1 where the volume was 106.27% higher than average, but the Bollinger Bands were 280.69% wider than normal the day before... too wide... The breakout failed.
The fourth breakout was on 8/16 where volume was 1,016.87% higher than average with the Bollinger Bands 62.87% wider than normal the day before. Breakout successful...
The breakout yesterday only had volume 2.95% above average (not impressive) and the Bollinger Bands the day before were 341.43% wider than normal... too wide again.
Obviously no one is correct all the time. That is not my point. My point is to report the story that VPHM is telling.
Rarely is a breakout, even a high volume breakout (which this was not) successful when the Bollinger Bands are so wide.
I am not saying this stock will tank like it did the first half of August after VPHM's unsuccessful breakout.
What I am saying is that we need some more consolidation to occur before we get our next, more powerful breakout.
The good news is that the Bollinger bands have been getting slightly narrower the past 3 days, not counting today. Today will be 4. In order for VPHM to return to the same area where successful breakouts have occured we need somewhere around 2 more weeks of consolidation.
If this consolidation happens, prior to our next breakout, then we will see empty candlesticks ahead...
Interesting read indeed Se7en, thanks for posting :)
Perhaps the man is right, but I think it is normal for the volume not to be so large like it was in the past. More, he's basing his calculations on share quantity volume, and of course, 1 million shares traded at $17 represents a lot more money involved than 1 million shares traded at $4.
Yesterday's fall might have been just a retest to prior resistance, now support. The close was exactly $17.30, a value that's probably on traders minds when they think about the short term on VPHM.
Or else, if the stock closes below $17.30 again, we've had indeed a minor false breakout and the consolidation phase will continue.
Time will tell. Either way I will continue holding the stock.
Perhaps the bullish breakout we've had on Wednesday was false, but it sure doesn't look like. For two days in a row the $17.30 level held VPHM on close, and I find that to be a bullish behavior. Anytime, maybe today, another white marubozu will send the stock to new highs above $18.
Even if VPHM closes below $17.30 I will still hold the stock, VPHM deserves some room to maneuver.
Oh well, that white marubozu didn't come, in fact the stock closed below $17.30, at $17.12. The 9 day moving average that aussietrader provided us has sustained prices once again today.
At last we've had a press release from the company, we didn't have any word from them since August 17th. It's no big deal, but it is better than nothing:
ViroPharma to Webcast 'Teach-In' On Clostridium Difficile Disease (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=18101&guid=%7B5FE4A1EB%2DB1E6%2D4E9F%2D8678%2D81B9105110B2%7D&symb=)
Oh God, I'm starting to wonder how this 70% plus gain would show up on the return of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (the return is calculated using closed trades only, Ramsburg is working to change this, for performance to change intraday as the quotes change, that's more dynamic and real).
But I feel the stock has been so benign to us that it deserves some opportunities to show why it should continue to be on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. So I'll give it a chance and sell only if we get a close below the 9 day ema, which for tomorrow will stand at $16.91.
The "teach in" should include how this disease can be totally eliminated with proper hospital isolation techniques.
It should also include that I can get generic Vancomycin for 1/10 of what it is selling and easily formulate it for GI absorption...and I have a company working on this.
Likewise culture and sensitivities shall be in progress for other antibiotics in the same family which probably still work as C diff is gradually building resistance to Vancocin.
Charts often defy reality...but only for so long.
Good Luck,
Dr. John
Today in AmericanBulls.com for VPHM....
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=VPHM&MarketTicker=NASD&TYP=S
This gem is at resistance,poised to breakout above $18.17,to go to $22.30..I think your stop is too high, but under your advise,I set my stop at $16.48(higher than $16.10)...I am speculating a bump up in prescriptions of vancocin to treat side affects of antibiotic treatment of New Orleans patients... The technical "high wave" doesn't reduce strength as much as it questions direction???:)
Quote from: David Randolph on September 12, 2005, 06:30:55 PM
Oh well, that white marubozu didn't come, in fact the stock closed below $17.30, at $17.12. The 9 day moving average that aussietrader provided us has sustained prices once again today.
At last we've had a press release from the company, we didn't have any word from them since August 17th. It's no big deal, but it is better than nothing:
ViroPharma to Webcast 'Teach-In' On Clostridium Difficile Disease (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=18101&guid=%7B5FE4A1EB%2DB1E6%2D4E9F%2D8678%2D81B9105110B2%7D&symb=)
Oh God, I'm starting to wonder how this 70% plus gain would show up on the return of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (the return is calculated using closed trades only, Ramsburg is working to change this, for performance to change intraday as the quotes change, that's more dynamic and real).
But I feel the stock has been so benign to us that it deserves some opportunities to show why it should continue to be on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. So I'll give it a chance and sell only if we get a close below the 9 day ema, which for tomorrow will stand at $16.91.
David,
Did you sell at close? Close was at $16.45
QuoteBut I feel the stock has been so benign to us that it deserves some opportunities to show why it should continue to be on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. So I'll give it a chance and sell only if we get a close below the 9 day ema, which for tomorrow will stand at $16.91.
VPHM was clearly set to close below the 9 day ema, which was standing at $16.91, so, like it was planned, I sold the stock at an average price of $16.40.
This 66% profit on VPHM has put overall portfolio performance at 160%, which is great considering the portfolio started just last April.
I wonder if I'll be able to buy VPHM, again, at the ascending trendline ... that would be a perfect technical behavior and call. That ascending line for tomorrow will stand at $12.52, rising $0.12 everyday ... so here we go again, trying to bottom fish VPHM at support. It would be fun if the stock danced this song with us all the way up to $48.
Well, day by day, you know I'll be watching and trying to buy again at support.
I'll follow you David, i will sell tomorrow at the opening!
Well, i sold VPHM by accident two weeks ago at $16.21... i put a stop-limit order but i'm happy :D ;)
What do people think about STOP LIMITS? Some posters on other boards view them as the enemies and that they are there to be gobbled up by ravenous MM's.
Prfsr Hal
David you were right before, and I think you are probably right again. Have owned this since it was around 3$, this stock has been a good friend but appears to be becoming Quite volitile and losing strength. I hate to say goodbye to this pick but I can see it going back to support. Gonna take profits and move them to Hom and or Bcon and wait for contracts.
and have to buy more brvo at these prices (once dumping of shares are over will be an easy double). I think this is a good call. happy trading to all!
interesting quotation from yahoo board:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=55529&um=50&.sig=VPueIqLahgfS.lyMb3GmMA--
Here we go... Just to bring you up to date, here is what the Bollinger Bands have looked like so far...
9/1 364.86% wider than normal
9/2 357.35% wider than normal
9/6 341.43% wider than normal (day of breakout that did fail after all...message #54627)
9/7 320.20% wider than normal
9/8 284.66% wider than normal
9/9 234.28% wider than normal
9/12 162.28% wider than normal
9/13 80.95% wider than normal
It looks like the bands are on a collision course with each other. Obviously that would never happen.
The narrowing should slow down starting tomorrow, unless we go into the narrower than normal range...
Today was a down day, but the volume was still light (59.51% less than the 50 day average). So no worry after today's action, since it is still above the pivot point from the last successful breakout.
VPHM is in the range I hoped it would go, but it got there a few days quicker.
One thing that you could watch for is the Darvas Boxes. After today's action, there was an increase in the price range of the Darvas Boxes. They are now at $17.95 for the upper box and $16.33 for the lower box.
There are only 2 times since the 5/11 high where VPHM has come anywhere close to the lower box.
The most recent time was on 8/8 where VPHM blew right through the lower box on the way to finding strong support at the major trendline.
The other time was on 7/1 where VPHM found support on the lower box and bounced off of it. The next day was a high volume breakout.
Here is something I just noticed. There have been 3 successful breakouts since 5/11, right? and 2 failed breakouts...
Of the 3 successful breakouts, the lower Darvas Box and the 20 MA (the default moving average of the Bollinger Bands) have converged.
On 5/26 the Breakout occurred when the 20MA had coverged within .04 cents of the Lower Darvas Box.
On 7/1 the Bounce occurred when the 20MA had converged within less than .08 cents of the Lower Darvas Box. The next day VPHM bounced directly off of the 20MA which resulted in a high volume breakout.
The last successful breakout was on 8/16, when the 20MA had converged to within less than .11 cents of the Lower Darvas Box.
The 2 breakouts that failed were on 8/1 and 9/7 where the width between the 20MA and the Lower Darvas Box were .40 cents and .53 cents.
Right now the 20MA has converged to within 11.6 cents of the Lower Darvas Box...
Tomorrow they will be pretty much right on top of each other...
Some people may be laughing, but it is proven that when two or more support lines converge, it creates a stronger support area.
Let's see what happens tomorrow...
comments from TA experts are appreciated ;D
Quote from: David Randolph on September 13, 2005, 06:20:24 PM
VPHM was clearly set to close below the 9 day ema, which was standing at $16.91, so, like it was planned, I sold the stock at an average price of $16.40.
Hmmmm....... To sell VPHM certainly made our portfolio look nice :D
Long term I think it is a mistake. August month prescription figures are just out and they are (as expected) at all time high. C-difficile is spreading very rapidly going into the winter. (try to make a google search and read some of the english media!)
It seems like US is ignoring this pandemic. Bad for Americans good for shareholders of VPHM.
Mike
I guess it's just me and you, Michael. In for the long haul.
I didn't sell either. It is actually pretty strong today considering the general market. It's just option expiration on Friday, so it won't go up or down too much till Friday. But Monday it will be up again.
I think we should keep the open stocks as in the % portfolio returns, not just the closed ones.
Thanks for your work in assessing this stock, Michael.
I first purchased the stock in June @ $5.62 / share and have been purchasing additional shares ("reverse scaling" -picked this up from a book I read - great technique for me ) at each 50% increment in share price increase.
I've profited from David's picks, partcularly DESC, and will subscribe prior to month's end; however, I believe that "staying the course" in a stock like VPHM will greatly inure to our benefit long-term.
update from yahoo board:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=55867&um=50&.sig=b8m3k0iVFSUJvhgVUU095Q--
I'm adding to a cut and paste so bear with me...
Here is what the Bollinger Bands have looked like so far...
9/1 364.86% wider than normal
9/2 357.35% wider than normal
9/6 341.43% wider than normal (day of breakout that did fail after all...message #54627)
9/7 320.20% wider than normal
9/8 284.66% wider than normal
9/9 234.28% wider than normal
9/12 162.28% wider than normal
9/13 80.95% wider than normal
9/14 63.68% wider than normal
The narrowing did slow down today, as I thought it might. The volume is also still light at 30.69% lower than the 50 day average.
(I posted this last night)
"Here is something I just noticed. There have been 3 successful breakouts since 5/11, right? and 2 failed breakouts...
Of the 3 successful breakouts, the lower Darvas Box and the 20 MA (the default moving average of the Bollinger Bands) have converged.
On 5/26 the Breakout occurred when the 20MA had coverged within .04 cents of the Lower Darvas Box.
On 7/1 the Bounce occurred when the 20MA had converged within less than .08 cents of the Lower Darvas Box. The next day VPHM bounced directly off of the 20MA which resulted in a high volume breakout.
The last successful breakout was on 8/16, when the 20MA had converged to within less than .11 cents of the Lower Darvas Box.
The 2 breakouts that failed were on 8/1 and 9/7 where the width between the 20MA and the Lower Darvas Box were .40 cents and .53 cents.
Right now the 20MA has converged to within 11.6 cents of the Lower Darvas Box...
Tomorrow they will be pretty much right on top of each other...
Some people may be laughing, but it is proven that when two or more support lines converge, it creates a stronger support area."
My post tonight consists of two things. First there was the Bullish Doji that occurred today. (It looked like it was going to happen when I posted message #55798 about 20 minutes before the close with my other account name)
True, there needs to be a confirmation tomorrow for it to be successful.
Second, the convergence of the 20MA and the Lower Darvas Box that has been successful the 3 previous times in the VPHM run-up has HAPPENED AGAIN.
This is why I believe if there was ever a time to have a Bullish Doji, it would be NOW.
I mentioned last night that the 2 should be right on top of each other after today's close.
Well, let me give you the exact numbers.
The Lower Darvas Box sits at $16.33, while the 20MA (default MA for the Bollinger Bands) is $16.3210.
That is less than a penny apart from each other.
That is the support level that VPHM found today.
I can not predict when the breakout will happen. I put down in the VPHM contest that I hoped it would be Monday.
It would not bother me one bit to see VPHM flat the next 2 days. That would bring the Bbands closer than any other day since the the 52 week highs starting taking place.
The less the volatility, the bigger the explosion. The calm before the storm.
So tomorrow I hope to see the exact same thing with VPHM as I did with HRSH today (Post #55410), a confirmation of the Bullish Doji.
it will be interesting to watch what will happen the next days
8)
On log scale chart the stock is now at the trend line so if you are holding it is a decent place for a stop. I am not so optimistic for a bounce here this time but worth watching for as it is valid place and had reversal candle, The market in general is weak and with options out of the way on Friday - next week could see a general rally that will likely be sold into.
For this stock the lines show next levels of likely reversals though the gap should really not fill. I would pick 13.45 as the optimum place for a pullback if it drops harder.
(http://xs46.xs.to/pics/05374/1409vphm.jpg)
Don't have a full link but upgrade this morning:
$17.45 in pre
News for ViroPharma Incorporated
8:07am 09/15/05 Piper Jaffray lifts ViroPharma price target to $24 - MarketWatch.com
Looks like VPHM is running away - $17.52 at pre-market, up $1.14.
Piper increased price target to $24 (4 increase in 3 months, to $15, $16, and recently to $18)
Shorts will scramble to cover today & tomorrow.
Aussie - isn't interesting how often news or upgrades come right at trend lines or other bounce points - I guess they hold on to them and wait until they bought
I think I saw on Yahoo MB that Piper themselves were buying shares crazy yesterday after yesterday August sales report (which reported record high sales, albeit supposedly seasonality in the summer months)
Thanks Aussie
I also only have marketwatch notice but excellent news.
Quote from: metro on September 15, 2005, 09:00:00 AM
Aussie - isn't interesting how often news or upgrades come right at trend lines or other bounce points - I guess they hold on to them and wait until they bought
Metro - good observation! As mentioned before this stock is being controlled by Piper Jaffray and they ensures that the uptrend continues in an orderly fashion:
Quote from: Michael on August 04, 2005, 03:07:33 PM
Piper raises EPS from .47 to .85.
What Surprises me is that they only raise the target to 16 when they almost double the EPS estimate but I guess that a 30% increase will do for now. They will still have time to make yet another upgrade ;D
This doesn't mean that they manipulate the stock. The new target is fully justified by the fundamentals. In fact I find it conservative.
I expect the next upgrade to come either as a result of news from the Pipeline or subscription numbers in October/November which will be higher than their forecast. (unless they significantly has increased their forecast today!)
I am unfortunately off line the coming four days (on Safari) I will try to see if i can find a hotspot on the Savannah bit let me wish every 3SOF's a nice weekend and good luck with your investments if I am not able to check in!
We have several great stocks that should perform nicely in the coming days ;D
Quote from: tommyt on September 14, 2005, 07:32:35 PM
I guess it's just me and you, Michael. In for the long haul.
You can add me to the hold list Tommy
Quote from: metro on September 15, 2005, 09:00:00 AM
Aussie - isn't interesting how often news or upgrades come right at trend lines or other bounce points - I guess they hold on to them and wait until they bought
Totally agree metro
Thanks for your fundamental notes Michael, contributed to me holding even though the chart was falling over some. Piper Jaffrey certainly are massaging this stock upwards, pays to watch what they do here ;)
Rumor Piper increased target to 24! ;D
Here is a little more info from Briefing.com:
ViroPharma target raised to $24 from $18 on Vancocin upside at Piper Jaffray (VPHM) 16.38 : Piper increases their projections for future Vancocin price increases for 2006-07 to 15% from 5% annually, based on their reassessment of comparable drugs for life-threatening infections. The firm also revises their Vancocin sales ests in response to stronger than expected Aug monthly Rx data. Based on both factors, firm raises their 2005 Vancocin sales estimates beyond the high end of the Street range and raises their 2006-07; firm also raises their 2005-07 EPS ests. Firm raises their tgt to $24 from $18.
Have a great day ;)
it´s just awesome ;D
David, why'd you sold it? it looks like it's going to hit $48 just like what you said... ;)
Hello everyone,
I'm a Newbie to this board. I just thought I would drop by, because someone told me on the Yahoo message board that a couple of people here had cut and pasted a few messages of mine from the board. (Se7en w/ reply #276, and la-onda w/ replies #289 & 294).
Also I thought it was great that the price target being raised to $24 and the technical picture that I had, hit at the same time...
I just wanted to say hello is all...
Welcome Kudzu, i'm Barcelonafan on the Yahoo board!
Congrats VPHM holders. I sold yesterday but its ok. It always happens with me and VPHM. Used to it.
Stocky,
Me too , sold yesterday and almost sh.. myself this morning with the gap up. Oh well had a good run with it,looking for a re entry point now.
Anybody got any advice on a possible pullback price to re enter?
I think tomorrow will be last chance to buy around this price as the MM hold it as much as they can so that they don't lose too much on the $17.5 options (Friday's expiration day).
It looks like Piper is leaving itself to increase it's price target again later this year:
----------------------------------
Market Scan
ViroPharma Has 65% Upside For Vancocin Pricing
Peter Kang, 09.15.05, 3:08 PM ET
Piper Jaffray raised the price target on ViroPharma (nasdaq: VPHM - news - people ) to $24 from $18 and said potential price increases for the Vancocin antibiotic drug bodes well for the biotech firm.
"We are increasing our projections for future Vancocin price increases for 2006-2007 from 5% annually to 15% annually, based on our reassessment of comparable drugs for life-threatening infections," said Piper Jaffray.
An analysis of comparable anti-infective agents, Piper Jaffray contended, "suggests there could be as much as 65% upside to current Vancocin pricing." In mid-August, ViroPharma raised the wholesale price of the drug by approximately 22%, its second price increase since acquiring the product rights from Eli Lilly (nyse: LLY - news - people ) in December 2004.
"With two additional 15% price increases, our new estimates assume the price of Vancocin will reach $1,000 per course by 2007," said Piper Jaffray. "Given the lack of alternatives for the treatment of severe or complicated C. difficile-associated diarrhea, there is the potential that there could be further upside to our new assumptions."
The research firm raised the 2006 and 2007 Vancocin sales estimates to $166 million and $200 million, respectively, from $149 million and $167 million.
In addition, Piper Jaffray said ViroPharma's current share valuation does not price in the company's pipeline. "With Phase I proof of concept data for HCV-796 expected in the fourth quarter of 2005 and maribavir Phase II data expected in the first quarter of 2006, we could justify an expanded multiple in line with biotech peers on positive data for either of these programs," it said.
The firm maintained an "outperform" rating on the stock. "Our price target moves from $18 to $24, which continues to be based on 20 times our 2007 adjusted EPS estimate, discounted at 20%," said Piper Jaffray. "We note that there could be upside to our multiple if progress is made in the pipeline."
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/09/15/viropharma-lilly-eli-biotech-0915market s15.html?partner=yahootix
Quote from: Terlisa on September 15, 2005, 02:17:50 PM
David, why'd you sold it? it looks like it's going to hit $48 just like what you said... ;)
Hey Terlisa, David had a published exit plan on a close below the 9ema. Therefore he sold as that occured. At that time the chart looked as though it was beginning to fall over. An upgrade from Piper was unexpected and has re-corrected the upward move likely to $24.
Just out of interest, the last gap up on VPHM occured at $12.5 and the stock eventually made a high at $17.95 (the previous Piper target and a $6 move). This gap started at $17.95 and if you add $6 you get at or near Pipers next target of $24. Is this stock being manipulated by Piper? Well yes is the answer, so I'll stay along for then ride as long as Piper do :D
I only sold a couple hundred because I wanted to diversify more, and I saw piper was buying. They always buy Before an upgrade. Plus i was hesitant until la-londa's post, would like to learn more about those darvas boxes. But from what i was seeing I understand why David sold, who was to know about the upgrade? A profit is a profit and a lot better than a loss. I just started trading about 6 months ago and have more than tripled my investment, but I don't think I could have done it without this board. I'm not wealthy yet, but learning fast....Thanks to all here.
again yahoo quotation:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=GN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=56395&um=50&.sig=0.tvW9r6Jcg8Wi._zLEqZw--
Honestly I believe the real breakout is yet to come...
This was a breakout, but the Bollinger Bands still narrowed today to 37.50 wider than normal.
If it was a powerful high volume breakout then the bands would be widening.
The high volume is there, the pivot point was cleared. Everything happened that needed to happen, except the bands widening.
The more powerful breakout could still happen on Monday.
what is the comment from TA experts ??
TIA
O.
Quote from: AussieTrader on September 16, 2005, 12:31:39 AM
Is this stock being manipulated by Piper? Well yes is the answer, so I'll stay along for then ride as long as Piper do :D
Hi Aussie
I was planning to write another long post about:
- the 38% increase in Vancocin prescriptions
- the effect of previous and future price increases
- The couple of blockbuster drugs VPHM has in the pipeline
- How VPHM is going to reduce the dilution from the convertible bonds
but your mail inspired me to simplify things and introduce the PJ wave pattern. This pattern is easy recognizable in stocks that are controlled by PJ. It starts with a rapid increase in the stock price followed by a period of consolidation and then a rapid increase again. This pattern can be repeated indefinitely. VPHM has just entered into the 5th wave ;D
I am kicking myself for selling this winner :-[
Have to get back in on Monday
yahoo board quotation:
Here is what the Bollinger Bands have looked like so far...
9/1 364.86% wider than normal
9/2 357.35% wider than normal
9/6 341.43% wider than normal
9/7 320.20% wider than normal
9/8 284.66% wider than normal
9/9 234.28% wider than normal
9/12 162.28% wider than normal
9/13 80.95% wider than normal
9/14 63.68% wider than normal
9/15 37.50% wider than normal
9/16 36.93% wider than normal
9/19 32.92% wider than normal
9/20 30.67% wider than normal
9/21 23.42% wider than normal
The width of the bands have decreased every day this month...
Volume has decreased for the 4th day in a row... A handle is forming, currently at 4.58% below the 52 week high.
An honest question for the guys who are truly short...
When is the last time you shorted a stock that was consolidating currently within 5% of the 52 week high, that had an ever increasing EPS, whose price target was just raised 33%, who has been told that their product is inexpensive, who is undervalued, who has a low comparive P/E to the industry, whose float is shrinking, and currently whose Bollinger Bands are narrower now than when this run first began?
You don't have to answer, just think about it...
We could still have a few more days of seeing a little red and it still would not make a difference, as long as there is no breakout to the downside.
You shorts are the only ones who have not thrown criticism my way since I have been talking technicals, at least not yet...
You or the guys you work for must know something is up...
&
Re: ***Bollinger Bands Update...
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/21/05 09:47 pm
Msg: 57845 of 57863
I caught up to Will Roberts today regarding the clinical trial design for HCV-796. He had previously told me he thought the Phase 1b test is similar to the test for HCV-086. (With HCV-086, there were 96 patients tested, sixteen to a group, 6 groups, roughly 1 group a month. 4 of each group of 16 were given placebos, the other 12 were given the drug. The dosage of the drug was increased with each new group.) He said he wanted to check with Dr. Broom or someone who knew if what he thought was, in fact, true and to call him this week.
When I spoke to him today, he informed me the testing of HCV-796 is very similar to the testing of HCV-086. The testing is a multiple ascending dose trial with 16 members to a group, 4 receiving a placebo, twelve receiving the drug. He did say the number of patients, or groups has not been made public.
The testing could be shorter than it was with HCV-086 since HCV-796 is related to HCV-086 and the safety and tolerability of HCV-086 is well known. Will also said it takes about 14 days to complete the testing. Will Roberts repeated that HCV-796 is 128 times more powerful than HCV-086 and the animal testing data is very compelling. He said that Dr. Broom has said on more than one occasion that HCV-796 is so powerful that if 796 doesn't work, it is because the target is wrong! Evidently, Dr. Broom is very confident of the anti-viral power of the compound. Will said that the results of the proof of concept study for HCV-796 will be released in the 4th quarter.
Will also said that, in addition to the UBS presentation next Monday, VPHM will make a presentation at the annual Infectious Disease Society of America conference the following week in San Francisco. The IDSA conference is being held 10/6/05 through 10/9/05. A review of the programs of the conference indicates C. Difficile, HCV, and CMV will be topics of discussion, abstract presentations, etc.
I think the bollinger bands are narrowing in advance of the news that HCV-796 works! The 4th quarter begins the week of the IDSA annual conference. Forty one here we come!
Re: ***Bollinger Bands Update...
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/21/05 09:47 pm
Msg: 57845 of 57863
I caught up to Will Roberts today regarding the clinical trial design for HCV-796. He had previously told me he thought the Phase 1b test is similar to the test for HCV-086. (With HCV-086, there were 96 patients tested, sixteen to a group, 6 groups, roughly 1 group a month. 4 of each group of 16 were given placebos, the other 12 were given the drug. The dosage of the drug was increased with each new group.) He said he wanted to check with Dr. Broom or someone who knew if what he thought was, in fact, true and to call him this week.
When I spoke to him today, he informed me the testing of HCV-796 is very similar to the testing of HCV-086. The testing is a multiple ascending dose trial with 16 members to a group, 4 receiving a placebo, twelve receiving the drug. He did say the number of patients, or groups has not been made public.
The testing could be shorter than it was with HCV-086 since HCV-796 is related to HCV-086 and the safety and tolerability of HCV-086 is well known. Will also said it takes about 14 days to complete the testing. Will Roberts repeated that HCV-796 is 128 times more powerful than HCV-086 and the animal testing data is very compelling. He said that Dr. Broom has said on more than one occasion that HCV-796 is so powerful that if 796 doesn't work, it is because the target is wrong! Evidently, Dr. Broom is very confident of the anti-viral power of the compound. Will said that the results of the proof of concept study for HCV-796 will be released in the 4th quarter.
Will also said that, in addition to the UBS presentation next Monday, VPHM will make a presentation at the annual Infectious Disease Society of America conference the following week in San Francisco. The IDSA conference is being held 10/6/05 through 10/9/05. A review of the programs of the conference indicates C. Difficile, HCV, and CMV will be topics of discussion, abstract presentations, etc.
I think the bollinger bands are narrowing in advance of the news that HCV-796 works! The 4th quarter begins the week of the IDSA annual conference. Forty one here we come!
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&mid=57845&sid=7077380
the 2nd info is quite important IMO !!
8)
This chart did not display correctly in a smaller size so sorry for the scroll.
It may hit the log scale trend line again near the 9-day. I put a simple ABCD measured move projection on the chart to show the target of $21.44. Anything over that will be a different set up.
(http://xs47.xs.to/pics/05384/2109vphm.jpg)
good news:
ViroPharma Responds to Epidemic of Severe Disease Caused By Clostridium Difficile
Monday September 26, 9:11 am ET
EXTON, Pa., Sept. 26, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) today reiterated that the company is engaged in efforts to meet the increased concerns of severe disease caused by an emerging strain of Clostridium difficile. These efforts include the launch of a major educational campaign to raise clinician awareness of the changing landscape of C. difficile-associated disease. ViroPharma commercializes Vancocin(r), which is indicated for the treatment of antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by C. difficile.
New information on an emerging strain of C. difficile was published in the September 24th edition of the Lancet (2005; 366: 1079-84). The paper, entitled ``Toxin Production by an Emerging Strain of Clostridium difficile Associated with Outbreaks of Severe Disease in North America and Europe'' was authored by Michel Warny et al. This report provided evidence that the strain of C. difficile involved in the ongoing epidemic produces 16 to 23 times more toxin than historical strains of this organism. In addition, it has been associated with a more rapidly progressive disease and significant increase in morbidity and mortality. The authors conclude that this ``could represent a major shift in the epidemiology of C. difficile-associated disease.'' The bacteria have been linked to numerous hospital disease outbreaks and patient deaths in the U.S., Canada and several European countries.
``We take our responsibility very seriously as the company that makes available Vancocin, the only approved product to treat severe C. difficile disease,'' commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. ``We, along with numerous medical and governmental institutions, are watching the development of this epidemic very carefully. As part of our efforts, we have committed significant resources toward medical education efforts to help clinicians prevent, diagnose, and treat severe C. difficile. Moreover, we are investing in manufacturing, including the qualification of a process that, if we are successful, would increase our capacity in 2006 and beyond.''
The company has undertaken a number of initiatives to combat the C. difficile epidemic in patients with severe disease, including efforts to:
-- Launch medical education programs, and initiate a study to develop
a predictive model to identify patients with severe C. difficile
associated disease;
-- Launch the C. difficile surveillance network, to monitor the
epidemiology and treatment practices of C. difficile-associated
disease in the U.S., and;
-- Increase capacity for potential future increased demand as part
of qualifying the company's third party supply chain for Vancocin.
``Recent publications have highlighted the overall increase in incidence and severity of this dangerous disease,'' continued Dr. Broom. ``The most striking element of this epidemic is the significant increase that certain institutions are experiencing in morbidity and mortality associated with this disease. This is perhaps driven by this variant strain's ability to produce substantially more toxin than any strain we've seen in the past. This puts additional emphasis on prompt treatment with an effective therapy for patients with severe disease. Our efforts at ViroPharma are not only focused on aiding physicians through our medical education efforts in their diagnosis of patients who may have severe repercussions from infections, but also on preparing for the possibility of a continued epidemic of C. difficile disease. We are dedicated to helping clinicians identify and treat patients with severe disease.''
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and immunocompromising conditions are associated with increased risk of disease. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
Wow! Glad I held on. Vanc has long been a great drug. It will be phenomenal if they can make serious progress on the products in the pipeline.
conference:
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.7913945bab91eee9c817fff45a5fd83d7a47fa84f48d7dfaa21f5293c9254333
link for listening:
http://event.streamx.us/event/default.asp?event=ubs20050926
scroll down to
Vion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
9/29/2005 @ 3:00 PM EST Listen Listen
just awesome 8)
nice link:
http://marketvibrations.com/past.php?subaction=showfull&id=1127966081&archive=&start_from=&ucat=1&
Thanks Oliver for posting the link.
Here is another upgrade:
08:42 VPHM ViroPharma tgt raised to $25 at Lazard (19.87 )
Lazard raises their VPHM tgt to $25 from $17 saying 43% of the physicians they surveyed expect to increase their usage of Vancocin to treat CDAD by an average of 20% over the next twelve months, and 70% stated that the recent Vancocin price increases will not cause them to reduce usage. Firm is increasing 2005-2009 Vancocin sales estimates. Reits Buy
;D applaud valueseeker
I am trying not to fall in love with viropharma :-*
I am plagerizing this from Kudzu on Yahoo.. :-[
***Re: When should we take profit? 9-28-05
by: kudzu_ag (37/M/Thomasville, NC)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy
About a month and a half ago I mentioned that the base count had been reset with the drop of the stock price from 8/5 to 8/12.
The reason being is that the trough that was formed during this time took out the previous trough of 7/21. Therefore the 8/16 breakout was a 1st stage breakout.
What I am getting at is, I began a new trendline (because the base count was new)from the low of 8/12 to the low of 9/14, extended it to the right and noticed that this new trendline has already supported VPHM once...
At the close of 9/22, VPHM was $17.41 and the trendline was $17.397.
So VPHM not only found strong support with what I have mentioned earlier, the convergence of the Lower Darvas Box ($17.25) and the 20 MA (default moving average of the Bollinger Bands)($17.2635), but also found support at this trendline on the same day...
This trendline is going north at a clip of
27 1/2 cents a day, so it is fairly steep. As far as finding future support on this trendline???
To give you an example of where the trendline will be in the near future... Oct. 17 it will stand at $22.105.
Yes, the fundamentals and everything that has been mentioned about this company the last few months has been nothing but positive.
But I have also seen many, many, many companies over the last several years who were tops in fundamentals in the market, but their charts broke down either to take a consolidated breather or to take a leap off of a cliff.
My TA is my insurance policy against that kind of stuff.
So IMO, set this trendline and follow VPHM's action against it and watch the 50 MA.
IF there is continued support to found, it will be found at the 50 MA as a last stronghold of support. In the last 5 trading days, VPHM's 50 MA has moved from $14.24 to $14.93.
My hope is that we will ride the trendline for a while.
My realistic side tells me that we will meet the 50 MA one day for the first time in this run. I just hope it is over 3-4 more months away...
Vanco Numbers Plot-page
wonderful links (I appreciate the work from
[email protected]!):
http://www.jh.b.ms/
&
http://hometown.aol.com/andorramax/vphmpix/prescrNSales_plot.JPG
hope this one helps ;D
cheers
Oliver
Thanks for the VPHM pick. I just sent a donation and hope to send more donations.
It's too bad this thread has gotten tucked away, great info, still long since 8. This exceeds my biggest gain of year so far, the last was IJII. I'm now standing close to double baggger, and I see no reason to sell anytime soon. Sure would like Micheal's comments/ insights now.
Hi Tommy,
I see no reason VPHM won't be $25 by the next earning report (early November?). Where we go from here is up to the guidance and the pipeline drug status. I do plan to sell 1/3 of my shares around $25 to diversify a bit.
-Valueseeker
Help. Does anyone have any technical indicators? I am holding 3500 shares...ouch
A low volume touch of the 9ema the uptrend is still intact the chart is not damaged.
If VPHM pattern continues, then we may see further pullback to the mid point of the bollinger bands in the $18.50 range, however $20 is good support now so will see.
From an indicators point of view continued pullback looks most likely, but as we have seen before news can change everything.
I said I'd stay with VPHM as long as Piper were manipulating it up to their target $24, but I am not adverse to selling and getting back in if I don't like the depth of any pullback.
Brandyjoco, what you do really depends on your entry price and risk tolerance, so far its just a small volume small value pullback...normal and healthy for uptrending stocks.
yahoo board quotation:
Re: Kudzu
by: kudzu_ag (37/M/Thomasville, NC)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 10/04/05 10:52 pm
Msg: 60180 of 60183
Sorry that it's taken so long to get back to you...
Here are the numbers...
First of all the volume was 52.82% below average... The decline today is hardly anything to worry about.
Second is that the Bollinger Bands actually narrowed slightly today from 120.94% wider than normal to 117.66% wider than normal. If we see VPHM flat or slightly down the next couple of days, the bands will begin to narrow significantly. Which is good considering the events that are upcoming.
Third is the trendline closed at $19.61 today, which VPHM is still above. If we see VPHM open in the area of $19.89 tomorrow, then there is a possibilty we will see a bounce (obviously if VPHM closes up intra-day).
IMO there should be no worries unless there is a breakout to the downside on higher than average volume, below the $17.25 area. This will change if we have another breakout to the upside.
If this breakout to the downside happens, then we could see our first test of the 50 MA, which currently is $15.69. The 50 MA, in the last 2 weeks of trading has risen an average of almost 0.16 cents a day.
Given that VPHM doesn't take off one way of the other before the earnings report, the 50 MA should be around the $19.00 mark (20 trading days). This is just a guesstimate...
For what it's worth, I hope to see VPHM pretty much flat for a bit, so the 50 MA will catch up to the price action before we get our next round of good news. This will form a stronger base for VPHM to rocket away from.
A perfect example of this is RIMM on 12/22/03-12/23/03.
A good sound base set at the 50 MA, then BOOM!!! the thing is... before RIMM took off from this base, they had already been hitting 52 week highs for 7 months...
;D
& chart:
Thanks for the help! I hung in there and am on at a conference so I am glad that it held! I really want to stay long term.
strong resistance at 18.66$ !
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock
Quote from: la-onda on October 06, 2005, 05:37:31 PM
strong resistance at 18.66$ !
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock
You mean support! ;)
;D 8) 18.66 $ support
hit it almost perfect (low of 18.64 ;D ;D ;D)
Very good entry point imo, am considering again...
On the linear chart the stock went to the trend line and former support at the center B band
(http://xs49.xs.to/pics/05405/vphm0710.jpg)
If it fails here the next level is at the 50-day and line shown
Well I'm out now. So it can continue to go up for the rest of you :-[
Good luck
Bought back in at $17.40
Where is the bottom on VPHM? Other biotechs are starting to get some support ie vrtx, mnta, agix - why not VPHM with its great fundamentals?
My guess is that it wants to fill the gap to 16.86 now, and possibly take a bounce near the 50 MA, which today stands at 16.44. If it fills the gap, this will also be a 50% fib retracement from the original breakaway gap on the 16th August to the recent high, so may signal a return to upward movement.
Not sure if it will go that low, but if it comes down to close the gap, I may take a position again, closing out on it if it dips below the 50 MA, which I believe would be quite bearish.
Well, I don't know if anyone else was watching but VPHM did exactly as I predicted today - pulled back to the 50 MA, closing the gap and then exploded!!
Unfortunately I slept in this morning (I'm on the west coast, so sometimes its hard to be up at 6:60 for market open) By the time I woke up it had made its correction. Filled a position at 17.80, which as it happened was the short term high when I bought, and it pulled back some, but then blew up in the afternoon!!
I'm gonna hang onto this one now into earnings, I think that VPHM has got plent of room to move now and the indicators look to be turning positive. I hopee there were other VPHM watchers that got in today as well, and I hope they got a better position than me ;)
As I see it, next resistance is around $19 - lets hope we see it up theere tomorrow!
That's nice ScottishTrader, but Kudzu on the Yahoo Board has been talking about a bounce off of the 50 MA for 2 weeks now, even before this recent downtrend started.
Don't brag so much...
Crikey rainman,
I wasn't bragging, and didn't mean for it to come across that way, I was just saying it did what I thought it would do, which for me at least is a nice confirmation of the analysis I made on the situation. I'm sure that lots of people here and on the Yahoo boards predicted this one long in advance of me, and believe me, I don't claim to be any guru on these matters, its just nice (especially in this market right now) to see a stock move according to plan. Now if only I'd taken full advantage of it...
I haven't been around here that long (only a couple of months) but since I have, I have been working on my TA a lot, and there are a lot of really good people here to learn from, and to support you when you call something right. In fact my original post was in response to brandyjoco asking what was up with VPHM. If you are new here, I hope you can join in the supportive atmosphere that we work hard to create and enjoy maintaining. Believe me, this is an excellent community of traders, which if you stick around and join in, you will surely find out 8)
Scottish Trader your right on the money.
Good trading today all!
I'm still here. Thanks for your encouragement a few days ago. I got scared...arhhh
I am hoping this the market will turn around and VPHM will be on the uptrend now.
Thanks again
forgive me ScottishTrader. It was late last night and I shouldn't have posted.
no probs rainman, hope I didn't sound too harsh - and welcome to 3SOF :)
VPHM pulled back a little today, but seemed to be holding around 19.00 fairly solidly. I'm not too sure about the technical picture here, but I hope to see VPHM pushing towards 20.00 over the coming days.
Earnings should be out in a couple weeks and that might improve things some more, but for now, I'll leave the chart. Anyone else following VPHM more closely, please chime in with any updates on fundamentals/technicals
cheers ;)
VPHM: JMP Sec Starts @ Mkt Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $25; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, October 19, 2005 08:15 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: JMP Securities
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Mkt Outperform
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $25.00
Analyst Comments: According to the firm, ViroPharma is a profitable, commercial-stage biotechnology company with one marketed product candidate, Vancocin. Vancocin was acquired in 2004 from Eli Lilly (LLY), and ViroPharma has made good use of the product by driving increased awareness and implementing price increases. They note that ViroPharma also has two development-stage products (HCV-796 for hepatitis C and Maribavir for CMV) that we expect will generate important news flow sometime around the end of the year. They believe that continued Vancocin sales growth along with progress from the company's pipeline should drive continued appreciation for the stock. They reach their $25 price target by applying a 25x multiple to their 2006 EPS estimate of $1.00.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.dc496b95f4b8b68502aa45b12295ecbe226b474e1401023b7c17c48836558492
Alright VPHMers,
thought I'd post this, as I think it gives us a good idea of whats been happening with VPHM over the last couple weeks. Here's the 1 hr chart for the last 10 days, and as you can see, VPHM appears to be building a symmetrical triangle which we are coiling into right now.
While we may hit and fall back from the descending trendline tomorrow at 19.00, I would watch for a break out of this fformation in the next few days (possibly Fri or Mon??) Whether we go to the upside or down, I'm not sure, but I would say that momentum probably still favours the upside. At this stage I'm not doing anything until I see this triangle break.
Hope this helps ;D
Thanks for the chart. What do you think will happen now after today's plunge?
As you can see from this chart, VPHM is still trending within the symmetrical triangle, but doesn't have much further to go. Volume has been trailing off as we head into the neck of the triangle, so I expect we'll find out which way it wants to go tomorrow - I'm looking for an upside break, but if it breaks to the downside, posting anything below the trendline, which should mark 17.85 first thing, I'm selling. Lower support is at 17.50, which it may get a bounce off, but I don't want to see that much exposure.
It has been trending a nearly perfect symmetrical triangle, so you gotta go with what the pattern tells you. Good luck to all for tomorrow, lets hope its a better day than today ;)
Wow, great chart. It looks like it hit the top of the triangle line since it closed at $18.53.
Is there anyone else out there holding VPHM? I thought the ride would be a little smoother.. it's been a little bumpy lately.
I think it has great fundamentals and there is a possibility that their drug Pleconaril for the common cold may go to Phase III with Schering-plough. Some news will probably be out on November 1 during an announcement.
I am still holding it. The euphoric talk of 40.00 pps has dissipated. I'll be happy with 26.
Prfsr Hal
you better believe it - the price fluctuations today fit perfectly into the neck of the symmetric triangle. Monday has to be breakout day. If it goes north, we have a technical target of 22. Watch for a breakdown though - a lot of stocks have been moving south lately, but the chart looks ripe for a solid move.
Negative divergence. I certainly wouldn't short this stock just yet, but signs point to the slowing of the bullish uptrend.
What do you think of today's breakout? Will it hold? Anybody holding VPHM ?
God knows why VPHM has been weak the last couple of weeks (and so do Melf Elf and David) but for the rest of us any weakness of VPHM has historically been a great buying opportunity and it seems that this is no exception.
It is a beautiful chart today. Nice increase with good volume - probably due to the increase in prescriptions last week. My feeling is that we have started the journey to Piper Jaffray's new $24 target. I will bet that before or when we reached it they will revise it again hopefully based on news from the pipeline.
If Viropharma was a woman I would marry her on the spot (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3070)
Mike
I am holding again, but needs more volume to confirm a breakout.
VPHM is finally moving. Almost broke $21. The chart looks good. How is everyone doing? ;) I have 4000 shares....
Earnings due out 11/7. A good run prior to earnings could mean a fall after. Regardless of the news.
I need some help from my charting buddies. I am trying to read charts and I am not sure what charts to use. But, from what I see is there an overbought RSI condition with a MACD line crossing into a negative situation? As you can see, I don't know what I am talking about... but what does the chart look like to you? P.S. last earnings VPHM went down for a week after earnings before picking up again.
sounds awesome >:D >:D
ViroPharma Announces Additional Investment for Vancocin Supply
Thursday November 3, 4:56 pm ET
Company Expands 2004 Manufacturing Agreement With Eli Lilly to Ensure Additional Safety Stock Inventory
EXTON, Pa., Nov. 3, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) today announced the amendment of its manufacturing agreement with Eli Lilly and Company (Lilly) (NYSE:LLY - News) in order to increase Lilly's supply of Vancocin(r) to ViroPharma over and above the supply necessary to meet ViroPharma's expectations for product demand. ViroPharma will pay Lilly an additional amount of up to $4.5 million in addition to the original contract price through early 2006. This investment is representative of ViroPharma's effort to anticipate the potential for increased demand for the product, should the incidence and severity of Clostridium difficile infection continue to increase at a higher than expected rate. Vancocin is indicated for the treatment of antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by C. difficile.
This amendment is also intended to provide ViroPharma with an interim second source of supply to augment the company's third party supply chain, which is expected to be qualified during the first half of 2006. Lilly has agreed to continue to manufacture Vancocin through at least September 30, 2006. The amendment does not effect Lilly's obligation to continue to manufacture Vancocin for an agreed upon period of time in the event that the third party supply chain is not qualified.
While our current supply commitments from Lilly were adequate to provide product above our expectations for product demand, an essential element of our commercialization of Vancocin is also to establish a sufficient safety stock inventory as a precautionary measure,'' commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. We want to ensure that all patients with severe C. difficile disease who need this life saving product have access to it; this amendment with Lilly is important to us and our patients as it helps provide this insurance. In addition, we now anticipate that we will have two manufacturers for the product through the third quarter of next year which should help the transition to our third party supply chain.''
ViroPharma expects that this amendment will result in an additional increase of up to $4.5 million in inventory balances over the period of the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006. The company anticipates that the product manufactured under this expanded agreement will ship to wholesalers during 2006. Future annual guidance for 2006 will reflect this activity.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and immunocompromising conditions are associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
Hi. What do you think of today's action. How could such a good stock with great fundamentals sell for sooooo cheap (espec before earnings). I am trying to be patient.
I thought this might happen. It went down around earnings last time. It could even go a few dollars lower. Thought about cashing in, but I think I will hold till the end of the year. If it needs it, I bet there will be very strong support at the 50 day moving average.
Yes, I remember it did this in August and I had a feeling it would do it again. I hate seeing it go down but I don't want to miss going up again...
Earnings out today. I would expect them to beat the earning estimate with 25% to 30%.
Not bad having in mind that the earnings estimate has been revised up from 5 cents to 21 cents the last 90 days!
VPHM is dirt cheap based on the profit from Vancocin alone but VPHM is so much more.
We should soon here news about Maribavir, HCV796 and Pleconaril.
The release of earnings are always exciting especially with stocks like Viropharma. The stock price can go both ways. I am (hardly surprising) holding over earnings. Long term this stock can only go one way......
Mike
just awesome >:D
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Third Quarter and Nine-Month 2005 Financial Results
07:36 VPHM ViroPharma beats by $0.10; guides Y05 revs above consensus. (20.99 )
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.31 per share, $0.10 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.21; revenues rose to $35.7 mln vs the $29.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY05, sees FY05 revs of $120-123 mln vs. $119.81 mln consensus.
&
Monday November 7, 7:30 am ET
- Company Increases Guidance for 2005 Based on Continued Revenue Growth -
EXTON, Pa., Nov. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2005.
Net sales of Vancocin® were a record $35.7 million for the third quarter of 2005 and $85.5 million for the first nine months of 2005. Operating income in the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2005 was $23.9 million and $60.0 million, respectively, compared to operating losses in the third quarter and nine months of 2004 of $3.3 million and $21.8 million, respectively. The increases in operating results from 2004 to 2005 were driven primarily by sales of Vancocin and the related cost of sales.
Net income in the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2005 was $18.7 million and $41.0 million, respectively, compared to a net loss of $3.3 million and $25.3 million for the same periods in 2004. Net income per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 was $0.33 per share, basic, and $0.31 per share, diluted, compared to a net loss of $0.13 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004. Net income per share for the nine- months ended September 30, 2005 was $1.05 per share, basic, and $0.77 per share, diluted, compared to a net loss of $0.95 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004. The primary drivers of the change from net loss in 2004 to net income in 2005 were the effects of improved operating income, partially offset by debt-related costs and income tax expense in 2005.
"The third quarter of 2005 marked the third sequential quarter of record revenue and strong financial results for ViroPharma, and also marked a time of great momentum throughout our business," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "Vancocin continued to perform well, with prescriptions growing 36 percent over the third quarter of 2004. We hired, and have since launched, our regional medical scientist team, who are now working with key opinion leaders throughout the U.S. to ensure appropriate usage of Vancocin and rapid identification of patients at high risk of serious Clostridium difficile-associated disease. We further reduced our debt from the end of the second quarter, ending the quarter with only $86.7 million remaining. Finally, enrollment in our Phase 1b study with HCV-796 and Phase 2 trial with maribavir continued, and we expect to have the clinical data available from these studies in the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, respectively."
Operating Highlights
Net sales of Vancocin were $35.7 million and $85.5 million for the three- and nine-months ended September 30, 2005, respectively, driven by price increases and prescription demand. Prescriptions increased 36 percent and 33 percent for the three- and nine-months ended September 30, 2005, respectively, as compared to the same periods in 2004. Additionally, while prescriptions in the third quarter remained relatively flat from the second quarter of 2005, decreasing only three percent, net sales of Vancocin increased 24 percent over the second quarter of 2005. This increase was due to three factors: the impact of the price increases effected during the second and third quarters of 2005; the fact that in the third quarter, the higher priced presentation of Vancocin represented a greater percentage of total units sold than in the preceding quarter; and an increase within estimated normal levels of wholesaler inventory at the end of the period. There were no comparable net sales in the 2004 periods, as the Company acquired Vancocin from Eli Lilly and Company in November 2004.
The nine-month 2005 period also included $6.0 million in revenue from the sale of inventory to Schering-Plough pursuant to the license agreement between the companies.
The gross margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased in the third quarter of 2005 to 86 percent from 85 percent in the second quarter of 2005, primarily due to the September 2005 price increase. The gross margin rate was 85 percent for the nine-months ended September 30, 2005.
The total costs and expenses associated with operating income (loss) were $11.9 million and $3.7 million, for the third quarter of 2005 and 2004, respectively, and $32.0 million and $25.7 million, for the nine months of 2005 and 2004, respectively. These changes reflect the net effect of increases related to the Vancocin cost of sales and intangible amortization and decreases related to research and development and marketing, general and administrative expenses. These changes primarily resulted from the Company's purchase of Vancocin and the results of the Company's January 2004 restructuring, which included $9.2 million of costs recorded in the nine- months ended September 30, 2004.
The Company recorded $3.3 million of income tax expense in the third quarter of 2005 and $7.1 million for the first nine months of 2005, which is based on a combined federal and state estimated annual effective tax rate of 15 percent. This resulted from the Company's preliminary study on the availability of net operating loss carryforwards, which indicates that, assuming the Company continues to be profitable, it should be able to utilize all carryforwards over future years, but with annual limitations. As such, the Company believes that taxable income will exceed available carryforwards for 2005.
Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of September 30, 2005 exceeded the maximum milestone threshold of $65.0 million. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $7.6 million to intangible assets in September 2005 and established a corresponding liability to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2005. No purchase price consideration will be due to Lilly relating to net sales occurring in the fourth quarter of 2005.
Debt Highlights
During 2005, the Company recorded a charge of $4.0 million for the change in fair value of derivative liability that related to the make-whole provision on the senior convertible notes, which are no longer outstanding.
The Company recorded a $1.2 million net gain related to the repurchase of $41.2 million of subordinated convertible notes for $39.8 million in the second quarter of 2005. The net gain is comprised of the gross gain of $1.4 million less the write-off of $0.2 million of deferred finance costs.
The increases in both periods for interest expense were due to the interest, amortization of financing costs, and debt discount from the senior convertible notes, issued in January and April 2005. Interest expense also includes the $0.6 million and $0.9 million related to the beneficial conversion feature for the settlement of the make-whole provision of the senior convertible notes in shares of common stock during June and July 2005, respectively.
During 2005 the Company reduced its debt principal by $116.2 million through $41.2 million of purchases of convertible subordinated notes and by the conversion of $75.0 million of senior convertible notes. On July 12, 2005, the Company effected an auto-conversion on the final $15.4 million of the senior convertible notes. The Company had $86.7 million in principal amount of notes outstanding as of September 30, 2005.
Cash Highlights
As of September 30, 2005, ViroPharma's assets included approximately $65.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, which represents a $30.0 million increase from December 31, 2004. This increase is primarily the result of strong operating results less the cash used of $46.6 million for repurchases of convertible subordinated notes and make-whole payments on the senior convertible notes. In addition, there was an increase in cash of $12.5 million related to the exercise of the purchase option by the holders of the senior convertible notes in April 2005.
Looking ahead in 2005
ViroPharma is updating its previously announced guidance for the year 2005 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a complete discussion and disclosure of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below. The Company's guidance does not include non-operating expenses or income.
For the year 2005, ViroPharma expects the following:
-- Net product sales: $120 to $123 million, representing growth of 122
percent to 128 percent over unaudited net product sales of Vancocin in
2004;
-- Cost of sales: $18 to $18.5 million;
-- Research and Development: $11.5 to $13.5 million;
-- Marketing, General and Administrative: $10 to $12.5 million;
-- Net cash flows provided by operations: At least $60 million.
Conference Call and Webcast
ViroPharma is hosting a live teleconference and webcast with senior management to discuss the financial announcement, guidance, and other business results on November 7, 2005 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. To participate in the conference call, please dial (800) 391-2548 (domestic) and (302) 709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
Alternatively, the live webcast of the conference call can be accessed via ViroPharma's website at http://www.viropharma.com. Windows Media or Real Player will be needed to access the webcast. An audio archive will be available at the same address until November 21, 2005.
See the pre-market pop on this stock?
They had blow-out earnings this morning. This stock is an amazing consistent mover.
THIS ONE IS HEADING TO $30+. I AM IN.
Yes, I have been holding 4500 shares. It was painful but it will be well worth it. I am hoping that it goes to $27 or so within this week...
VPHM: JMP Sec Keeps @ Mkt Outperform; Ups Tgt to $28 vs $25; Analyst Notes
Monday , November 07, 2005 15:25 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: JMP Securities
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Mkt Outperform
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $28.00 (+12.00% from $25.00)
Analyst Comments: According to the firm, VPHM has reported 3Q05 financial results with 3Q Vancocin sales of $35.7 million beating their estimate $30.0 million, and 3Q EPS of 31c beating firm's estimate of 23c. ViroPharma raised its guidance for 2005 Vancocin sales from $100-105 million to $120-123 million. The company also narrowed its guidance (shaving the top end) for 2005 R&D and MG&A expenses. Additionally, the firm is raising their Vancocin sales estimates from $113.4 million to $122.6 million for 2005, from $153.8 million to $170.6 million for 2006, from $184.6 million to $201.3 million for 2007, and from $221.5 million to $231.5 million for 2008. These changes result in new EPS estimates: from 89c to $1.04 for 2005, from $1.00 to $1.11 for 2006, from $1.24 to $1.34 for 2007, and from $1.51 to $1.53 for 2008. They believe that continued Vancocin sales growth along with progress from the company's pipeline should drive continued appreciation for the stock.
One word says it all....AWESOME...... :o
Reuters.com - No Spin. No Agenda. Just the Facts. As they happen.
TABLE-ViroPharma posts Q3 profit
Mon Nov 7, 2005 07:45 AM ET
Nov 7 (Reuters) -
VIROPHARMA INC. (VPHM.O: Quote, Profile, Research)
Latest Yr ago
qtr EPS (diluted, $/shr) 0.31 -0.13 Net ($ million) 18.7 -3.3 Revenue ($ thousands) 35,798 398
*Source: Reuters Estimates
#Excludes extraordinary, special or one-time items
--The drugmaker said shares used in computing net income per share amounts were 59.8 million for the latest third quarter compared with 26.6 million for the year-ago quarter.
--For the latest third quarter, four analysts on average had expected the company to earn 21 cents a share, excluding any exceptional item, on revenue of $29.5 million, according to Reuters Estimates. (Reporting by Renu Pariyadath in Bangalore)
© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
AP
ViroPharma Reports Third-Quarter Profit
Monday November 7, 11:50 am ET
ViroPharma Reports Third-Quarter Profit on Strong Sales of Antibiotic Vancocin
EXTON, Pa. (AP) -- ViroPharma Inc. reported a profit in the latest quarter on strong sales of its antibiotic Vancocin.
Shares surged on the Nasdaq Stock Market, rising $2.39, or 11 percent, to $23.38 in late morning trading. Earlier Monday, the stock traded as high as $23.90, its highest point since 2001.
The Exton-based pharmaceutical company on Monday said it earned $18.7 million, or 31 cents a share, on revenue of $35.8 million in the third quarter.
In the same period a year earlier, it lost $3.3 million, or 13 cents a share, on revenue of $398,000.
ViroPharma reported third-quarter operating income of $23.9 million, compared with an operating loss of $3.3 million a year earlier.
Analysts were expecting earnings of 21 cents a share on revenue of $29.5 million, according to Thomson Financial.
ViroPharma acquired Vancocin from Eli Lilly & Co. last November.
The company said prescriptions of Vancocin, which treats intestinal bacteria, rose 36 percent in the quarter over the year-earlier period. Although prescriptions declined 3 percent from the second quarter, net sales of Vancocin rose 24 percent sequentially, primarily because of the higher price of the product.
ViroPharma said in August that it would boost the price of Vancocin by more than 20 percent, the third significant increase since the company acquired the drug.
The company said total costs and expenses rose to $11.9 million in the third quarter from $3.7 million a year earlier, on higher cost of sales, research and development and marketing expenses for Vancocin.
ViroPharma again raised its 2005 outlook for Vancocin net product sales to a range of $120 million to $123 million, representing growth of 122 percent to 128 percent over unaudited net sales of Vancocin in 2004.
In August, the company increased its view for Vancocin net sales to a range of $100 million to $105 million from its earlier outlook of $74 million to $79 million.
Analysts surveyed by First Call, on average, project 2005 sales of $119.8 million for ViroPharma.
Anyone have any idea on how VPHM will do short term?
News....
• New Star Analyst Rankings for VIROPHARMA INC
StarMine (Tue 10:34am)
• VIROPHARMA INC Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report
EDGAR Online (Tue 3:38pm)
Link...... http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=vphm
Great article rocket8 .
Thanks for making the post,great read. Applaud your work! ;)
argh! what happened here?? i thought we had at least $25 in the bag.
Quote from: ncham on November 09, 2005, 10:20:35 AM
argh! what happened here?? i thought we had at least $25 in the bag.
I made money on it before when it was bouncing around under $5.00 I don't think it makes much difference if you got in early or more recently. You are still going to make money on this one, IMHO.Some of the fever on this one will boil off in a few days
The market is entirely emotional, and when people see profits slipping away they do a trigger pull reaction and sell to preserve profits. So it will retrace as it has before, stabilize, then go up again. Patience will pay off on this one. All this is just IMHO.
Biotechnology socks with good looking accelerating charts.
REGN
VRTX
VPHM
HEB
GNBT
I am still waiting for that $25 ARGH....
It will come but I hate being patient!
i'm hoping it's just closing that gap and getting ready to run higher. bought a little more at 21.86.
not sure why this didn't make any other news services:
8:30 AM 11/8/05 Piper Jaffray lifts ViroPharma price target to $28 - MarketWatch
Quote from: ncham on November 09, 2005, 04:25:18 PM
i'm hoping it's just closing that gap and getting ready to run higher. bought a little more at 21.86.
great timing on my part - it just dumped AH!
anyone watching this? wtf happened??
13G filed - not sure how to read these. 2nd largest holder sold 1.4 mil shares or has 1.4 mil left?? not sure what to do here
had to sell. i dont know what is going on but it cant be good.
Hi Tommy,
Deal fail to close due to various reasons. I am sure whichever company that did not reach the deal must be kicking itself right now. We all know how long it takes competition from pre-clinical to phase I/II/III.
Let's look at the institutional ownership, I checked at couple of days ago which was 47.2%, today it stands 49%, about 7% increase from a couple of weeks ago.
-Louis
I am a VPHM long - today was very disappointing. This same thing happened last August. The stock's fundamentals are soooo strong. Why isn't it going up ?
It probably was the article listed above that caused the selling. I also agree that it will be years before a generic will be produced. The sell of is an over-reaction, but that is the market.
Unreal how easy it is to screw stock holders. 50 dma is around 19, right?
Now I will have to watch closely one of the few stocks I thought I could hold.
Chart shows lots of support this am.
(http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/fcgi-bin/activity?t=VPHM&type=P&i=2&l=1131636531)
wow. i dont think anyone expected this.
nice link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/business/09viro.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5035&en=adf5a202dfaba496&ex=1217912400&partner=MARKETWATCH
over reaction IMO :-\
any feedback from TA experts?
lazard update ??
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=68078
VPHM update:
ViroPharma to Host Conference Call to Discuss Clinical Results of HCV-796
Thursday November 10, 12:47 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., Nov. 10, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) today announced that the company will host a conference call and live audio webcast today at 4:30 p.m. to discuss the results of the Phase 1b study with HCV-796, an orally dosed hepatitis C (HCV) viral polymerase inhibitor with the potential to interfere with the replication of HCV, that is being co-developed with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth.
During the conference call, ViroPharma management will discuss the results, and answer questions regarding all areas of the business.
The live webcast of the conference call will be accessible via ViroPharma's corporate website at http://www.viropharma.com. An audio archive will be available at the same address until November 24, 2005. To participate in the conference call, please dial 800-391-2548 (domestic) and 302-709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
Quote from: la-onda on November 10, 2005, 12:48:00 PM
nice link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/business/09viro.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5035&en=adf5a202dfaba496&ex=1217912400&partner=MARKETWATCH
over reaction IMO :-\
any feedback from TA experts?
The price action in VPHM caught my eye today - I have no position in this stock right now
My thought on this article is it's a psychological catalyst to the herd to sell.
Joe investor/trader will ignore all the positives mentioned and instead focus on this:
QuoteIn a survey of 44 doctors conducted in September by Lazard, more than two-thirds said the price increases would not cause them to reduce the use of Vancocin and nearly half said they expected to increase their use in the next 12 months.
But some doctors say their hospitals avoid paying for Vancocin by having patients swallow a generic intravenous form of vancomycin. While its unpleasant taste can cause nausea, some doctors say the two forms of the drug are essentially the same.
Dr. August J. Valenti, director of epidemiology and infection prevention at the Maine Medical Center, said this method saves $600 a treatment. His hospital took infection control measures after the number of cases of C. difficile began rising in 2002. "We were beginning to see far more relapses, and relapses after relapses," Dr. Valenti said.
New drugs aimed at C. difficile, as well as a vaccine, are now in development by various companies, and some experts say they are needed. Genzyme is in the final phase of clinical trials of tolevamer, which works by binding and immobilizing the toxins produced by the bacteria. Because tolevamer is not an antibiotic, Genzyme hopes it will reduce relapses. Others developing drugs include ActivBiotics, Oscient Pharmaceuticals, Romark Laboratories, the team of Optimer Pharmaceuticals and Par Pharmaceutical, and the team of Medarex and the nonprofit Massachusetts Biologic Laboratories. Acambis is working on a vaccine.
Henri A. Termeer, Genyzme's chief executive, said Vancocin's price had risen because ViroPharma "looked at it as a single opportunity and they are utilizing it in that sense." But he predicted that once competition arrived, the "tremendous pricing flexibility" that ViroPharma has had "may not be sustainable over time."
Seeing the run up in VPHM has been 500% + YTD and short interest is 13% and growing today, my opinion is this will continue to be pressured short term unless today's CC on the HCV-796 Phase 1b clinical results offers an unforeseen revelation.
As a wise individual one told me "the average individual deals with perception, not reality."
Good Luck 3SOFers
This just off DJ Newswire. Overblown IMO, but people react to the news.
Brigitte
DJ ViroPharma Falls Amid Fear Of Generic Competition >VPHM
By Tim Paradis
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) shares lost 17.5% Thursday amid apparent concerns, which some analysts contend were largely unwarranted, that generic competition would encroach on sales of Vancocin, an antibiotic that has resuscitated ViroPharma's fortunes and stock price in the last year.
"I do think that concern is overblown," JMP Securities analyst Adam Cutler said Thursday, referring to the sell-off of ViroPharma shares following the announcement by Akron Inc. (AKN) that it had penned an agreement with India's Cipla Ltd. (500087.BY) to develop a generic form of an undisclosed antibiotic used in U.S. hospitals.
More than one analyst saw Akorn's statement as an oblique reference to Vancocin, which ViroPharma acquired a year ago from Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY).
"I'm not sure that given the current market opportunity and the cost and risks associated with trying to get a generic version approved that it adds up," he said, referring to a market opportunity for generic competition.
"At worst for ViroPharma, a generic version could be on the market in a few years. In the meantime, they should continue to enjoy growing sales while they are the sole provider of Vancocin," Cutler said. He rates the stock "market outperform" and carries a $28 price target.
Joel Sendek, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, wrote in a research note Thursday that while it appears Akorn and Cipla plan to develop a generic form of Vancocin, such an undertaking might prove difficult.
"We continue to believe that while the market is attractive, there are high barriers for any entry for such a generic, including manufacturing and the need for clinical studies, which may be difficult to enroll," Sendek wrote. He maintains his sales estimates for the drug.
Vancocin is used to treat the intestinal bacteria Clostridium difficile, which is often referred to as C. difficile. On Nov. 3, ViroPharma, which has raised prices for the drug several times this year, said it struck an agreement to boost the amount of the drug Lilly makes for ViroPharma. The Exton, Pa., company acquired the U.S. rights to Vancocin from Lilly a year ago.
Cases of C. difficile have increased in the U.S. in recent years, especially at hospitals where it is often strikes patients whose treatments for other conditions have included courses of antibiotics.
Earlier Thursday, ViroPharma said preliminary results from a Phase 1b study of HCV-796, a hepatitis C being co-developed with Wyeth's (WYE) pharmaceuticals unit, demonstrated antiviral effects in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.
Referring to the results of the trial, Cutler said: "They were net positive and warrant further development."
On Monday, ViroPharma shares hit a 52-week high of $24.36 after the company said it swung to a profit from a loss in the third quarter and raised its sales forecast for the year. For the third quarter, revenue surged to $35.8 million from $398,000 a year earlier. Vancocin sales totaled a best-ever $35.7 million during the quarter.
Shares of ViroPharma traded at $18.11, down $3.85, or 17.5%, in 4 p.m. EST Nasdaq trading. Volume stood at 16.1 million shares. Average daily volume is 2.52 million shares.
The stock has risen from about $3 a share a year ago, beginning its precipitous climb in May.
Both JMP Securities and Lazard make a market in ViroPharma shares.
-By Tim Paradis, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5294;
[email protected] (END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 10, 2005 16:58 ET (21:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 58 PM EST 11-10-05
we need that moron from Piper to print a retraction. sold last night at 20.8 and bought back in today at 18.74. Back on it's way up, i hope.
I have listen to the CC, especially the Q&A was awesome. >:D
very detailed answers to analysts and stockholders.
just relisten the CC:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=92320&eventID=1162923
cheers
OLiver
CC was very detailed with lots of information just listen to it:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.new#new
I feel a little nervous right now. According to TA is it oversold? If so how long before it turns around. I believe this little GEM is worth $28 by Christmas but I feel pretty beat up right now...
Any of you chart readers out there?
Better News In WSJ tonight:
ViroPharma Falls Amid Fear Of Generic Competition
By TIM PARADIS
November 10, 2005 4:58 p.m.
NEW YORK -- ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) shares lost 17.5% Thursday amid apparent concerns, which some analysts contend were largely unwarranted, that generic competition would encroach on sales of Vancocin, an antibiotic that has resuscitated ViroPharma's fortunes and stock price in the last year.
"I do think that concern is overblown," JMP Securities analyst Adam Cutler said Thursday, referring to the sell-off of ViroPharma shares following the announcement by Akron Inc. (AKN) that it had penned an agreement with India's Cipla Ltd. (500087.BY) to develop a generic form of an undisclosed antibiotic used in U.S. hospitals.
More than one analyst saw Akorn's statement as an oblique reference to Vancocin, which ViroPharma acquired a year ago from Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY).
"I'm not sure that given the current market opportunity and the cost and risks associated with trying to get a generic version approved that it adds up," he said, referring to a market opportunity for generic competition.
"At worst for ViroPharma, a generic version could be on the market in a few years. In the meantime, they should continue to enjoy growing sales while they are the sole provider of Vancocin," Cutler said. He rates the stock "market outperform" and carries a $28 price target.
Joel Sendek, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, wrote in a research note Thursday that while it appears Akorn and Cipla plan to develop a generic form of Vancocin, such an undertaking might prove difficult.
"We continue to believe that while the market is attractive, there are high barriers for any entry for such a generic, including manufacturing and the need for clinical studies, which may be difficult to enroll," Sendek wrote. He maintains his sales estimates for the drug.
Vancocin is used to treat the intestinal bacteria Clostridium difficile, which is often referred to as C. difficile. On Nov. 3, ViroPharma, which has raised prices for the drug several times this year, said it struck an agreement to boost the amount of the drug Lilly makes for ViroPharma. The Exton, Pa., company acquired the U.S. rights to Vancocin from Lilly a year ago.
Cases of C. difficile have increased in the U.S. in recent years, especially at hospitals where it is often strikes patients whose treatments for other conditions have included courses of antibiotics.
Earlier Thursday, ViroPharma said preliminary results from a Phase 1b study of HCV-796, a hepatitis C being co-developed with Wyeth's (WYE) pharmaceuticals unit, demonstrated antiviral effects in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.
Referring to the results of the trial, Cutler said: "They were net positive and warrant further development."
On Monday, ViroPharma shares hit a 52-week high of $24.36 after the company said it swung to a profit from a loss in the third quarter and raised its sales forecast for the year. For the third quarter, revenue surged to $35.8 million from $398,000 a year earlier. Vancocin sales totaled a best-ever $35.7 million during the quarter.
Shares of ViroPharma traded at $18.11, down $3.85, or 17.5%, in 4 p.m. EST Nasdaq trading. Volume stood at 16.1 million shares. Average daily volume is 2.52 million shares.
The stock has risen from about $3 a share a year ago, beginning its precipitous climb in May.
Both JMP Securities and Lazard make a market in ViroPharma shares.
-By Tim Paradis, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5294;
[email protected]
I stopped trading VPHM a while back and haven't followed it too closely in a while, but wasn't the last Piper upgrade target $24 (they have been supporting the hell out of it by issuing timely upgrades over the past months).
So it just touched $24 a couple days back after a little run from below $20 and then gave it all back with interest (pre earns gallop also). Sort of self fullfilling really, wonder if Piper were selling off? I know VPHM have had other upgrades but Piper were the most involved as I recall.
Be careful now as this sell off could gain momentum (not that fundamentals have gone bad, far from it).
Summarization from yahoo board:
[1] the FDA has informed VPHM execs. that ANY "generic" Vancocin will have to go through conventional clinical trials, which means any generic, assuming it can overcome TRADE SECRET manufacturing issues, is a minimum of five years away
[2] HCV-796 dosing frequency is still in flux, no ideal yet established
[3] PK profile improves 40-50% when HCV-796 is given with food, an experiment tried with only two or three patients
[4] dropouts not yet evaluated, but unlikely the dropout had anything to do with HCV-796
[5] Vertex drug also shows a log decrease after 14 days
[6] There is no "magic bullet" anti-viral hep C drug, and it's likely HCV-796 will be part of a combination "cocktail" of anti-virals, used to treat hep C.
[7] Phase 2 will have 8 of every 12 patients on the HCV-796/peg. interferon combo, with 4 patients on peg. interferon alone.
I stronlgy recommend to listen to CC especially the Q&A part.
Thanks, that is a great summarization. I am long VPHM so I was shocked to see the lies posted to the board yesterday.
A few more points about VPHM:
1) 80% of research & dev of HCV-796 is paid for by Wyeth
2) Pleconaril - a cold medicine developed by VPHM was sold to Sclering-plough. It is in phase II for possible ashma treatment. In the future, VPHM will possibly receive milestone payments and royalties.
3) VPHM has $1 of YTD earnings. Therefore a $18 share price equates to 18 P.E., $19 = 19PE. However, based on 2006 revenues it is only about 13 PE or 14 PE
4) Piper Jeffrey has stated that at this time the drug pipeline is NOT included in their price target yet.
This is stock price is very undervalued based upon the fundamentals. I would like to see $28 by Christmas/January conservatively.
I also listened to the CC and was impressed with how Sr. management addressed the issues.
Also, looking at the ECN this morning was vastly different than those same quotes last night.
I bought in this AM at 18.70 and, while I expect resistance, I could see this going back to 24 within a few weeks.
Based on the surge this AM I'm expecting the many new shorts from yesterday to be quickly covering positions which could accelerate the action.
I'll keep a tight stop 7% just in case I'm wrong.
Hi KCScott,
I managed to get in this morning at 18.67 as mentioned yesterday in the XING thread.
I have to admit that I am going to sell those shares again in the near future. That is very much against my nature (to sell a stock that is so undervalued) but I simply can't justify to have so much money in one stock (not even in VPHM) and I am still holding my core position for a looong time.
The regulares here know that I have bought Viropharma several times. My initial investment was around 4.5. This position (with additions) now represent a significant portion of my total portefolio (more than 30%) and I need to diversify.
The opportunity today was just too good to miss and I am only human ;)
I think I will start getting back into energy next week.
BTW you should start look at STX (thanks for bringing that one to my attention!)
Mike
i'm out. hit the 50dma and went straight back down.
I'm still here. Why aren't the analysts posting anything on the newswires about the upgraded target price of $28 ?
Check out the other VPHM message board - Dave Randolph posted his old VPHM chart and we are sitting right on the ascending trendline.
I'm not sure why the analysts other than Piper didn't come out and say they still supported their estimates.
I'm not a member, so i cant see the other page. Not being able to break through the 50dma today was a big red flag for me though. If it does break through and continue up, i might get back in.
Hey Mike - Good to see you.
There are so many fourms in here now and so many stocks in the various portfolios it's hard to keep up.
As for STX - yea, I missed that boat (Gee...... My Boat :P) but maybe I'll get a look next week.
----------
As I was reading the Yahoo board for VPHM found this:
QuoteVPHM - Lines in the Sand
by: Woody22x 11/11/05 05:46 pm
Msg: 69536 of 69545
The three short term challenges and lines in the sand for the Bulls are:
1. The immediate line in the sand is to hold today's gap up at $18.58 which has already been tested once about an hour before the close.
2. The stock must close above $19.00 (preferably today) to get above its 50-dma. When a stock finishes down 17+% to break its 50-dma line in a day and can't struggle back to show a real "bull command" on the stock by at least finishing above its 50-dma, expect more on the downside, and it won't take much to rattle it further from there. Given today's action, theoretically it would be considered a weak bounce unless it closed above $19.29.
3. The next drive up must see it get its head above the 17-dma as all great leaders rise above the 17-dma as has VPHM during its core drive during the past six months. That target is at $20.00, and so far it has met resistance at about that level having reached $19.60 today and about $19.40 yesterday.
If it accomplishes all three of these lines in the sand, the stock has a chance of recovering and the bulls would have got the upper hand. Net-net, it must get above and stay above $20 for this stock to start recovery. Until then, it is a broken stock.
To achieve this we need to see big block buying. It has been sparse most of the day and not present at the close, where it finished at $18.82. Finishing this low is a sign of weakness and today's action can be considered a "dead-cat bounce".
The challenges for the Bears are:
1. Break the line in the sand at $18.58. The closer this stock finishes to that number, the more today's action will be considered a victory for the bears and as I said above a "dead cat bounce".
2. Then drive it down below $17 which is the last vestige of support and then
3. Watch the flood gates open until the big institutional buying comes in to cause a short squeeze on the 3.6 million shares of short interest. With that amount of short interest, the bears are out to have their pound of flesh and are not done taking it yet.
Pretty good assessment of the situation, IMO.
(Maybe we need to steer Woody22x over here)
I was disappointed the stock finished as weak as it did today, and I'm giving it a very long leash.
If it starts out down on Monday, I may trade back out again and watch for a few days.
Good Luck to All the 3SOFers
Is the 50 dma at $18.58 ? or is it 19.05
Check out SFCC - it dropped from $37 to $27 in one day because of a bad bloomberg article that may be untrue. It is now (after a week) starting to comeback and is at $31. Sounds similar to VPHM's recent drop over erroneous data.
You're right it did hold the 50d ema. I was looking at the sma. I have the 50d sma at 19.02 and the 50d ema at 18.51, so it's right between. It defintiely could go up again, just like it did last time. I will definitely be back in if it does.
1.)
Bullish Harami was formed on the 11th
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock
2.) yahoo board quotation:
The HCV-796 results are very exciting. My first take is that they have much work to do to improve the absorption phamacokinetics of the compound. The compound appears to be dissolution rated imited from the simple capsule dosage form since it is very water insoluble (a bad thing) but has high biological membrane permeability (a good thing). I know this because DeRosen said it during the CC and and also indicated that there was still a significant fed/fasted effect on absorption. They might need to partner with special drug delivery company like Elan to optimize the formulation for commericial use. Optimizing the formulation would result in increasing systemic expsoure, reducing patient variablity and decreasing HCV viral load and potentially improving efficacy. It is not yet known how viral load reduction and efficacy are related.
They will not need to optimize the formulation to continue the upcoming Phase IB studies with PEG-interferon. It is in their best interest to get a better formulation into Phase II, however, this won't be a requirement. It could be that the 2 patients that had greater than 2log10 reduction (> 99%) in viral titers were jsut good absorbers of the drug and had greater systemic exposure, but that is speculation on my part w/o seeing the data. I wish an analsyt would have asked that question.
The really good news is that this is the first non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor that has demonstrated significant viral load reduction in man and was well tolerated with no dose limiting toxicity. It should be pointed out , that the safety leg of the Phase IB trial remains blinded, so we don't know why 3 of the patients dropped out of the study but toxicity is a concern for all compounds, even after FDA approval.
With respect to potency as measured by viral load reduction in man we can rank the current HCV inhibitors as:
Vertex (protease inhibitor)
> VPHM (non-nucleosise polymerase inhibitor)
> Idenix (nucleoside polymerase inhibitor
> PEG-Interferon (SGP and Roche)
Combinations of the above xave been shown to have better results (Idenix and PEG-Interferon results just released). Side effects w/ interferon are substantial (Just ask Irc) and also noted with the Vertex compound. VPHM's HCV-796 appears to be beeter tolerated based on the preliminary information. Therefore, I speculate that combinations of HCV-796 with VTX-950 at a lower dose would be preferred (very preliminary assessment)since VTX is more potent, more toxic and has difference mechanism of action. Immediate discussions here of this potential partership are premature at this time.
Overall, we need to wait for more results, but the preliminary results are highly encouraging. I expect the compound to move to Phase II and I expect the results with PEG-interferon to be even better. It would be great to see protease-polymerase inhibitor combinations ASAP, but I don't know if that will be possible from business perspective. Certainly that would be in the best interest of HCV patients.
With respect to stock price, both Idenix and Vertex shares are doing quite well based on HCV potential alone and no significant pipeline earnings currently. VPHM should eventually be priced >$40 when considering Vancocin earnings and HCV-796 potential in 2006. At this point, I think that the risk of HCV-796 not moving to Phase II is fairly low.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=69666
3.)
VPHM:
Institutional Holdings & Info:
per Nasdaq, institutional holdings increased to 49.7%
per Ameritrade, institutions expressed interest to:
Buy 19.3 Million shares and sell only 6M shares, that is
3.2 to 1 institutional buy ratio.
Technical Analysis:
Current Resistance Range 23.31-24.36
Current Support Range 18.15-18.50
Bullish Signals:
VPHM's 50 day Relative Strength vs. SP-500 is Bullish
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish
VPHM is sitting right above the 50 day EMA(18.50) and it's crossed up, which is bullish
Bullish Harami means downtrend reversal; with a confirmation, this is a buy signal.
Price Rate-of-Change (PROC) is bullish
Weekly MACD indicator is bullish
15,45,100 day trend is still bullish
StochRSI indicator points to a Long Entry/Short Cover based on this friday's session.
Bearish Signals:
Stochastics are looking down, although indicate that the stock is no longer overbought.
MACD looking bearish, but way above zero, much better than it was in October.
Chaikin Volatility Accumulation Distribution (CVAD) is bearish but its based on last 2 days.
William Volume Accumulation is bearish
OBV and RSI are slightly bearish
Having looked at all the TA data, I'd say it is 60%/40% Bull/Bear ratio, however,
one should always correlate the fundamental data into the situation. This is not
a technical play, it is a play based on the company's fundys:
Do you really think this stock is gonna go much lower than it already is? (lol)
If you do, please look/listen at the latest Q3 report and the news.
If that is not enough to enter long, I'd suggest you check out Viropharma's
excellent timely response via the latest CC.
If that is not enough:
Do you really think PJ, JMP and Lazard would set a $28 target? Or do you think
you know better than these brokerages?
For all the chart pattern lovers, check out 7/15/05, 8/15/05, 9/14/05, 10/13/05.
If that is not enough, refer to chart: 06/01/1999 - 12/01/1999.
Finally, selling now (based on unfounded news manipulations)
at the Year's end and paying half of my profits in Capital Gain
taxes would be very stupid.
This stock is going much higher than you may think; whether it goes
above the 50day, below the 50day, etc... This is a long term investment
caliber stock. It just happened to also suit the short & intermediate termers as well,
hence the daytraders and people trying to make a dollar out of 50 cents.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=69694
4.)
There were over 2200 puts the November $22.50 purchased right before the Akorn News hit the wires. Open interest is now only 1900. Smells man, someone planted that article, no way Akorn can come up with a generic version of Vancocin. Thomas Wei really screwed us by commenting on that. I hope he was not part of this scam, but the company should have this matter investigated.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=69718
hope this helps
Long & Strong
OLIVER
Looks like there will be a narrow tradingi range this week with 5000 Nov 20 calls pending. God I hate options >:D
Out at 18.78 - The Bears seem to have seized control.
This has the potential, no matter how good the fundamentals, to take a real nose dive short term.
As mentioned previously, if they get this below $17 it's a long way down.
Be careful and Good Luck
I hate to say this . But I'm out too. Average was about 18.60 ...
I would appreciate additional comments & analysis from othe bard members.
thanks in advance
Oliver
OK, the bloodletting is in full swing, and it's never too early to start looking for the buy.
This stock, IMO, is still most certainly a buy.
The question is at what price?
First thing I looked at is the retracement level. using the 38% Fibonacci would give us a turnaround at $14.94 (Off the $24.10 high set on Nov. 7)
I looked at the historical prices and found there's little support at 15.10
7 million shares traded at this range Aug 19 & Aug 22
I'd look for the first sign of a fight at that level, though I don't think it will hold
The next retracement level is 50% which would put the buy in proce at $12.05.
Looking at Support there were 12 Million shares traded around that price from July 27-Aug 4
There was a gap up from $10.99 on August 15 to $ 14.24 August 16.
Hmmmmmm
OK, lets try 61%, the final level before Oblivion ;D
That would make the buy in price target $ 9.39 and there is substantial support should it get that low.
Thoughts?
Opinions?
Educated Guesses or Wild Conjecture are also welcome.
Quote from: KCScott on November 15, 2005, 05:53:11 PM
OK, the bloodletting is in full swing
Scott,
That's a good description. VPHM has taken out alot of support since the Bearish Island Reversal off the 24.36 top.
Quote
First thing I looked at is the retracement level. using the 38% Fibonacci would give us a turnaround at $14.94 (Off the $24.10 high set on Nov. 7)
I looked at the historical prices and found there's little support at 15.10
7 million shares traded at this range Aug 19 & Aug 22
I'd look for the first sign of a fight at that level, though I don't think it will hold
Nice job on your analysis. Applause.
Quote
Thoughts?
Opinions?
I'm thinking a bounce somewhere between 15.44-15.79, which I'll explain below, but like you, I'm also thinking that it won't hold.
After a spectaular gain of 1,359% off the May low on "higher highs and higher lows," yesterday was the first day that VPHM made a "lower low," printing and closing below the October 13 low of 16.64.
In addition to that, the stock has alot of technical damage on the "bloodletting."
1. The gap down on November 10 put in a Bearish Island Reversal.
2. November 10 also broke below and closed below Trendline 2 (T2) on heavy volume
3. Yesterday, November 15, VPHM made its first "lower low," taking out 16.64 horizontal support
4. Yesterday, November 15, VPHM also broke below Trendline 1, a trendline that goes all the way back to the May low.
Given that kind of damage, VPHM doesn't look finished on the downside, but here's why I think it could bounce near 15.44-15.79:
On the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) has been flat-lining at 15.545.
Given the powerful uptrend over the past six months, that could offer at least short-term support.
There's some additional support near there, which I'll show you on the chart in the next post.
Adding to the 15.545 "possible" support at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) is horizontal support from the August 30 and September 14 lows, 15.44-15.79.
Given how fast VPHM has come down, shorts might be inclined to cover at that kind of support, and new buyers might come in, and the stock could get a bounce to broken support levels: 16.64...start chasing the underside of broken T1...
Melf,
Applaud you for the analysis.
I need a glossary to understand the Japanese TA terms. ;D
The pattern on VPHM over the last week since I really started watching is buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon. This morning it dipped to $15.60 then shot back to $ 16.40 level.
I think the $ 15.10 - $ 15.54 will be in play by end of the day.
I'm not sure if I want to speculate that will be the floor on this very volatile issue.
Are you going to play?
If so, what are you looking for in order to jump in?
Alrighty folks, the recent VPHM sell off has caught my attention. Makes me very interested in the stock.
VPHM is currently forming a 2 week declining wedge (possible reversal formation). Since VPHM is already down 30% from its highs of 24 and change, probability favors a recovery as opposed to further selling in its "oversold" condition. Furthermore I was informed that: "VPHM is going into the BIO index starting Monday...Is it possible MM's drove it lower to get a better % return once it starts on the index" - <kslifka> (thanks)
Also VPHM is at a significant LT support level. Although it did "break" the long term upsloping trendline this may have been the result of coming into the trendline with a "full head of steam."
Odds favor a bounce at these levels...could see "whipsaw" like action.
Quote from: KCScott on November 16, 2005, 11:38:56 AM
Melf,
I need a glossary to understand the Japanese TA terms. ;D
Scott,
lol. I do, too.
Quote
Are you going to play?
Only very short-term. I don't like all of those breaks of support on the daily chart.
Quote
If so, what are you looking for in order to jump in?
I liked this morning's selloff to the 15.44-15.79 support area that we discussed this morning.
We had an Ascending Triangle pattern breakout today at 16.45 that measures to about 17.30, so my stop now is below 16.22, the 11.25AM low, prior to the breakout above 16.45.
Math:
16.45 (Top of Ascending Triangle) - 15.60 (Morning low) = 0.85 Points
16.45 (Breakout) + 0.85 = Target: 17.30 IN PLAY
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:VPHM&Interval=5&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9
Scott, I got your message asking about CPHD, and I'm responding here to apologize to you and the rest of the community, but I'm getting inundated with requests to analyze individual issues, and I simply don't have the time to give them the analysis that they deserve. I hope that you and everyone else will understand, and I'll try to participate at 3SOF on an "as can" basis. Thanks!
Quote from: calven on November 16, 2005, 11:58:37 AM
VPHM is currently forming a 2 week declining wedge (possible reversal formation). Since VPHM is already down 30% from its highs of 24 and change, probability favors a recovery as opposed to further selling in its "oversold" condition.
Calven,
Great charts, especially catching that Declining Wedge. Applause. Best I can tell, it looks like the high of 17.29 at 12:48PM tagged the top of the pattern just about exactly.
Does a successful declining wedge mean that it will turn bullish now?
The declining wedge is a coil pattern for pending volatility and possible change in direction (reversal). What I am basically saying is that whichever trendline is broken the stock will likely move quickly in that direction....
Please read this link. This should explain the "falling wedge" better than I ever could : http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/fallingwedge.htm
Pivot long: 17.45
Pivot short: 15.35
I am basically saying, I think its time for a bounce (reversal) but I need confirmation first...(hence - a breakout from the falling wedge)
Here is one theory I came up with after the first big drop from 22-18. Many people asked me where I thought VPHM was going. I told them there was "more pain left" from the 18.00 level . I was obviously disagreed with and called crazy by many individuals. Even received emails on my bearish sentiment from 18.00. People were telling me "this is a great time to buy" "buy on this dip, 18 now 21 in a week"!. Needless to say these individuals didnt listen to what I had to say (why ask then?) and sufferred another $2.25 -3.00 drop...to 15.60 (15.50 close enough) depending on how high they bought. Now you may ask how I arrived at 15.50? Its very simple....
VPHM failed to hit the top trendline on it's last upwave to 24. It should have hit 26.00 if it were trading a perfect channel. Being that it missed the top trendline by 2.00 I suspected it would move below the bottom trendline(17.50) by 2.00. This a basic hypothesis I came up with using the theory of "measured moves" and wave impulses. This would put new support at 15.00-15.50 depending on your exact spot of the LT support line... Coincidence?
Brandyjoco,
Just so you understand what I'm talking about...This is an example of a declining wedge breakout. (NVAX - before and after chart)
Great Hypothesis. Do you think it will re-test the lower trendline again?
I got a SMITE in this folder this afernoon.
It obviously wasn't for my assessment before the open:
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 16, 2005, 07:02:20 AM
I'm thinking a bounce somewhere between 15.44-15.79, which I'll explain below, but like you, I'm also thinking that it won't hold.
Today's low in VPHM was
15.60, right in the middle of the range.
And, the SMITE obviously wasn't for this:
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 16, 2005, 12:41:40 PM
I liked this morning's selloff to the 15.44-15.79 support area that we discussed this morning.
We had an Ascending Triangle pattern breakout today at 16.45 that measures to about 17.30, so my stop now is below 16.22, the 11.25AM low, prior to the breakout above 16.45.
Math:
16.45 (Top of Ascending Triangle) - 15.60 (Morning low) = 0.85 Points
16.45 (Breakout) + 0.85 = Target: 17.30 IN PLAY
Today's high in VPHM was
17.29.I'm left to conclude that the SMITE was for this:
Quote
...I'm responding here to apologize to you and the rest of the community, but I'm getting inundated with requests to analyze individual issues, and I simply don't have the time to give them the analysis that they deserve. I hope that you and everyone else will understand, and I'll try to participate at 3SOF on an "as can" basis. Thanks!
Whoever would SMITE me about that has to be joking.
SMITE????
Geez, I've posted TONS of charts and TONS of analysis over the past 5 months, and my APPLAUSE rating is barely 1 point per day. If I were looking for APPLAUSE, I feel sure that I could find alot more somewhere else, and so could the rest of you, whose APPLAUSE ratings are more ridiculous than mine.
Look at Calven's rating of 33, I think; I gave him 2 applauds today. He's been posting here as long as I have. Geez...he sure isn't here for the APPLAUSE, or he'd be long-g-g-g gone!
Believe me, if I had more time, I would be more than happy to spend the half hour to an hour that it takes me to post my analysis on these charts, but I simply don't have that much time. Nor does David.
Even GOD doesn't have that much time to look at ALL of these charts. ;D
I primarily post here to share, to help, and to enjoy the sense of 3SOF that most of you have been so wonderful in helping to create. I post here because it feels safe from touters and bashers, helpful, and supportive.
Like othes, I couldn't care less about my APPLAUSE rating, or I would be screaming and bitching that it's only 155. Well, it
was, 155, until I got the SMITE. lol.
I do care that anyone would SMITE me, just for being a human being who has limited time, like everyone else. I care that anyone would SMITE me, like they did this summer in the BRVO folder, just because I didn't agree that BRVO was a buy at that time, over $1.00.
Enough said, but if I get very much more of this SMITING nonsense, I'm not going to waste my valuable time here.
My VALUABLE TIME is much more important to me than any APPLAUSE rating.
Final word: I've also got a "stalker," who wants to prove how inferior I am to him. I'm not going to put up with a whole lot more of that nonsense either.
Melf Elf: I don't know what an applause or smite is but I would give you an APPLAUSE! I don't know what I would do without the technical help that Caven and you have given me!!! I bet the smite was a mistake....
Melf Elf,
I want to express my appreaciation for all the hard work you do for this board. I've followed your posts ever since I became a member back in June and know you are top of the line when it comes to TA. I applaud you even though I actually cannot do it thru the system because of my rating.
Thank you again, Melf Elf.
Another applaud for Melf and one for Calvern as well.
I think it will come back to test $15.60 range which I will target as an entry point.
I'll put in a 5% stop at $ 14.82, good for the day only
This is not for the feint of heart as it's a long way down if that get's broken.
2 Factors in play right now, may cause me to up my buying target:
1. Options expiration Friday
2. VPHM being added to the Naz Bio Pharm index Monday
It looks like it is supporting 16.80-17 range pretty well, I may wait till late day to pull the trigger.
Thoughts?
The "declining wedge" was definately broken today, but one factor is missed on that breakout...volume!
Volume sucks today, thereofore the validity of the breakout is very low....
I didn't find any recent VPHM threads, so I am going to start this one solely for VPHM. No NVAX, GNBT, or other stocks claimed to be "another VPHM"... just good ol' VPHM.
VPHM IS a hot stock with awesome fundamentals and pipeline drugs with high potentials.
On November 10, VPHM tanked...its first large tank... after a really, really long uptrend starting from single digits. Why? Because on SPECULATIONS that a generic drug may be a competitor of Vancocin. Read it here (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051110/viropharma_stock.html?.v=1).
And VPHM is going to be added to the NASDAQ Biotech Index on Monday. Read the news here (http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/051114/1190830.html?.v=1).
Does this mean a reversal and bull run for VPHM? Probably not if one looks solely at technical analysis and the charts, but hey, TA and charts aren't everything and certainly cannot predict the effects of news (good or bad) as we've seen what the speculation news had done to VPHM.
Here's the breakdown of VPHM's good and bad at this moment...
Good news:
- VPHM has grown to a company so full in potential that it's being recognized by a major market index!
- Joining biotech index usually causes bull hype, sending stocks up the next one or two market days (at least)... potentially good for some quick daytrade/short swing gains.
- After hours activity is bullish... up $0.263 or 1.57% to $17.05.
Bad news:
- After VPHM's recent plummet, it's chart looks really ugly and uncertain. No clear signs of reversal yet.
- RSI is really low... still oversold
- MACD sharply plummeting
- I-Watch volume and price charts still show consolidation this week (heavy buy and sell volume; not one or the other (see attachment)
- I-Watch volume and price charts are really ugly today with a lot of overselling (see attachment)
But do not get me wrong, I am still bullish on VPHM for the long term and I will continue to monitor this stock and attempt to add positions when it resumes its uptrend.
My 2 cents but what does the 3SOF community think about VPHM? ???
Please use the SEARCH option on the top of this page. VPHM already has an active 28 page thread....
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.405
Yes...active but posted in many other threads that were created for OTHER stocks. :(
No clue what you are talking about. Its right here :
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.405
In at 16.80
Move is starting ahead of Monday's add to the Bio index and today's option expiration.
Nice to have saved $2.00 per share vs. my previous sell price.
It looks like VPHM will close at almost HOD. Do you think it is okay to buy now? Ahhhh.... I bought 3000 shares in the 17.20's... I hope this works out - it is so undervalued!
Looks like VPHM is starting to move up....
Brandy,
IMO, Barring any unforeseen "bad news" - you can sleep on this one through the end of the year.
It won't be a huge Parabolic rise, just a gradual ascent back towards 22-24
Of all my current holdings, I'd rank this one as best to reach the target by EOY.
Good Luck
I'm back in the mix (http://mdteague.com/DancingSmile)
Now we need some panick buying.
Wow, this is moving pretty steady and fast. I will feel better when we cross the 50 MA. That is at $19.08?
I got out at 18.15..... Anyone else left here?
How did you know to get out before the 100,000 dump at 1 pm?
You must have got out with a stop I guess. Looks like it has become just another crappy trading stock (http://mdteague.com/Dump.gif)
I have ameritrade. They have 3D level II where you can see the sells stacking up as large mountains against the small hills that are the buys. That told me it was going to drop because of too much resistance.
When will be a good point to buy back?
I am no TA expert, but it looks like it is right around a support /resistance line now. What I would like to see now that I am out is go a bit more than a $ lower for a buy then sell as soon as it turns weak again. Anyone out there with a solid plan?
fyi:
VPHM: Short Interest UP 24.2% to 4.5M in Nov 2005
Friday , November 25, 2005 13:22 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 24.2% to 4,482,392 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.
SYMBOL OCTOBER NOVEMBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 3,607,594 4,482,392 +874,798 +24.25% 2
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 3,789,530, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
TA Link:
Bulish Harami on the 25th of Nov
strong resistance @ 17.75$
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock
Hummm! What is the issue price going to be?
Good Luck All!
ViroPharma Incorporated Announces Public Offering of Common Stock
Monday November 28, 4:01 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., Nov. 28, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) today announced that it plans to offer 7,000,000 shares of its common stock in a public offering. ViroPharma also intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,050,000 shares of common stock. A preliminary prospectus supplement relating to the offering will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission but remains subject to completion.
ADVERTISEMENT
ViroPharma intends to use net proceeds from the offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The Company may also use a portion of the net proceeds to repay or prepay all or a portion of its 6% subordinated convertible notes due March 2007 and for business development purposes.
Goldman, Sachs & Co. will act as the sole book-running manager for the offering. Piper Jaffray & Co. will act as the joint lead manager and SG Cowen & Co. LLC and Lazard Capital Markets LLC will be co-managers of the offering.
These shares will be issued pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement. This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy nor will there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. Any offer, if at all, will be made only by means of a prospectus, including a prospectus supplement, forming a part of the effective registration statement. Printed copies of the preliminary and final prospectus supplement and base prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained, when available, from Goldman, Sachs & Co. (Attn: Prospectus Department, 85 Broad Street, New York, New York 10004, Phone: 212-902-1000). A preliminary prospectus supplement relating to the offering will be filed with the SEC, and will be available along with the base prospectus filed with the SEC in connection with the shelf registration, on the SEC's website at http://www.sec.gov/.
afterhours down ??? :-\
ViroPharma to Offer 7M Shares of Stock
Monday November 28, 5:07 pm ET
ViroPharma Plans to Offer 7 Million Shares of Its Common Stock in Public Offering
EXTON, Pa. (AP) -- Drug developer ViroPharma Inc. said Monday it plans to offer 7 million shares of its common stock in a public offering.
The company also said it intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1 million shares, and will use proceeds from the offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The company may also use a portion of the proceeds to repay its debt and for business development purposes.
Shares of ViroPharma fell 89 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $16.11 in aftermarket activity, after closing down 73 cents, or 4 percent at $17 on the Nasdaq.
Real-Time ECN Get Real-Time ECN for:
VIROPHARMA INC (RT-ECN)
Symbol: VPHM
Last Trade: 15.64 Nov 28
After Hours Change: 1.36 (8.00%)
Today's Change: 2.09 (11.79%)
Bid: 15.52
Ask: 15.63
Quote from: la-onda on November 29, 2005, 03:40:07 AM
afterhours down ??? :-\
ViroPharma to Offer 7M Shares of Stock
Monday November 28, 5:07 pm ET
ViroPharma Plans to Offer 7 Million Shares of Its Common Stock in Public Offering
EXTON, Pa. (AP) -- Drug developer ViroPharma Inc. said Monday it plans to offer 7 million shares of its common stock in a public offering.
The company also said it intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1 million shares, and will use proceeds from the offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The company may also use a portion of the proceeds to repay its debt and for business development purposes.
Shares of ViroPharma fell 89 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $16.11 in aftermarket activity, after closing down 73 cents, or 4 percent at $17 on the Nasdaq.
Real-Time ECN Get Real-Time ECN for:
VIROPHARMA INC (RT-ECN)
Symbol: VPHM
Last Trade: 15.64 Nov 28
After Hours Change: 1.36 (8.00%)
Today's Change: 2.09 (11.79%)
Bid: 15.52
Ask: 15.63
comments are appreciated
from yahoo board:
Re: finally MMM confirmed?!?
by: sztabzyb2001
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 11/29/05 04:48 am
Msg: 74472 of 74473
No, manipulation before secondaruies and private placements is usually down. Only the company itself, VPHM, should want a higher price. Puzzles me why they did it this way. They should have done all the paperwork internally and called a few close knit firms like Jaffray when the stock was over $20 and seen if they were willing to take millions of shares at say a $3 discount - then just anounced one morning they completed a private placement for 7 million shares at say $17 or $18. Hell, I seen some small bios like AVN recently even do a private placement without an underwriter - they just had a lawyer draw up the proper papers and privatelky shopped the issue around without going public until they blew out all the shares at once one morning.
Here's what often happens with secondaries and even private placements that are shopped around too long. Let's use the 7 million shares # for this. Many know about it before the news goes public. In this case, Jaffray and the two co managers plus any firms they have been shopping it too - plus anyone such employees told others. When word leaks out, many will sell their shares not wanting to be caught in a lower priced secondary as such issues are always at a discount to market. So such parties are dumping.
Would a Jaffray who was pumping VPHM at $20 continue recommending VPHM knowing a secondary was on the way? Tell you the truth, I am not sure legally they could even if they thought it was way undervalued. Think at that point they are blacked out, but someone needs to confirm this, from recommending the stock to their clients. Probably on a company "restricted list". If you ever mention a stock to your broker, especially one you know their firm was covering, and they suddenly say "I cannot talk about it - it's on the restricted list" that means news is about to hit. Oh, it could be good news like a takeover for a premium or bad news like a secondary. Odds are greater than 50-50 for bad news if the price recently has been dropping!
So what do we have? Some retail and funds who know in advance who sell as fast as they can figuring they can buy back at the lower price later. You then got firms who may stop recommending their clients to buy the stock - at least short term until the secondary is over. Then you get the voltures - the hedge funds and even the future purchasers of the 7 million shares. If the stock is say $21 and you get a phone call from say Jaffray or Cowen asking you if your firm wouild like to buy say 1 or 2 million shares at a future discount to market in a secondary, wouldn't you want to buy those shares as cheap as possible? Wouldn't you consider shorting the stock knowing word will spread and then the discount issue - so the price has to drop? Literally you could even go out and short say 1 million shares between $20 and $17 and then and then the morning of the secondary buy the 1 million shares in the secondary at say $15 - washing the two positions and pocketing say the $3-$5 difference from the short price to the buy price.
Re: finally MMM confirmed?!? -Continued
by: sztabzyb2001
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 11/29/05 04:49 am
Msg: 74473 of 74473
I've seen so many secondaries and private placements. Price usually goes down before by those who know due to a combination of non recommended or less recommended buying, shorting, and just plain dumping. The risk to those dumping and shorting is if the company announces good news before the actual secondary date. Oh, they may be legally limited in what they can say before but say in this case, perhaps they could report a business change like a price increase if it were to happen. Anyone know the precise SEC rules on this?
Sometimes the price drops so much it is obvious to the company word has leaked and the price is being manipulated down. Perhaps the company felt legally compeleld to go public with the news yesterday after the big drop during the day. Hell, if the price goes too low they could even call off the secondary.
Often secondaries and private placements are priced at a 10-25% discount to market the night before but I have seen cases where the price correction/crash was so steep beforehand that the price actually bumped up a little thefew days before and then were priucxed at the closing price right before. Why would XYZ Companies purchase 7 million shares at a closing price? Because if they tried to buy that many in the open market, they would
immediately move the price up.
If many shorted knowing this event, they might not even want to wait for the secondary to be issued to start covering. The purchasers of the secondaries could wait until the issue but other shorts might want to start covering during the panic beforehand. That could be as early as today or tomorrow or, if they feel the lats of the retail panick is first kicking now, they may wait until a day or two before the issue.
The risk is always that the panick is overdone - say to $14 or $13 in oiur case and the company then announces the secondary is off. Then all those shorts and those who dumped waiting to buy back cheaper are suddenly scrambling to buy - and BOOM the price pops in a short squeeze. Plus the recommended buying kicks back into gear.
I think company management at VPHM bumbled this one and I think firms like Jaffray need to be investigated and scrutinized more by the SEC.
Hey, this is all just my opinion for what it's worth. All other opinions welcomed.
also nice to read:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=74449
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=74436
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=74383
tuesday will be painful IMO :'(
Quote from: la-onda on November 29, 2005, 03:41:06 AM
Real-Time ECN Get Real-Time ECN for:
VIROPHARMA INC (RT-ECN)
Symbol: VPHM
Last Trade: 15.64 Nov 28 After Hours Change: 1.36 (8.00%)
Today's Change: 2.09 (11.79%)
Bid: 15.52
Ask: 15.63
comments are appreciated
Oliver,
According to your data, VPHM is poised similarly to two weeks ago, when it was called gap down at the open into the
15.44-15.79 horizontal support area. The low that morning, November 13, was
15.60, then we got a relief rally.
Here's a review of the technical damage done to the chart two weeks ago, prior to the snapback rally to 18.74:
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 16, 2005, 07:02:20 AM
After a spectaular gain of 1,359% off the May low on "higher highs and higher lows," yesterday was the first day that VPHM made a "lower low," printing and closing below the October 13 low of 16.64.
In addition to that, the stock has alot of technical damage on the "bloodletting."
1. The gap down on November 10 put in a Bearish Island Reversal.
2. November 10 also broke below and closed below Trendline 2 (T2) on heavy volume
3. Yesterday, November 15, VPHM made its first "lower low," taking out 16.64 horizontal support
4. Yesterday, November 15, VPHM also broke below Trendline 1, a trendline that goes all the way back to the May low.
Given that kind of damage, VPHM doesn't look finished on the downside, but here's why I think it could bounce near 15.44-15.79:
On the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) has been flat-lining at 15.545.
Given the powerful uptrend over the past six months, that could offer at least short-term support.
There's some additional support near there, which I'll show you on the chart in the next post.
The snapback rally off that support, to 18.74, was close to a 38.2% Fribonacci retracement of the decline from 24.36 early November high. (It was 35.8%). The rally ended at the top of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Kumo (Cloud), indicating that, "at a glance," the Kumo (Cloud) now is providing resistance (see chart, next post).
The rally also ended on a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, with volume exceeding that of the prior day.
Yesterday's close puts VPHM back below Trendline 1 (T1).
Quote
Quote
Mel Elf,
I really appreciated your TA !! thanks again (& applaud 8)
tuesday will show us if support @ 15.44 or 15.79 $ will hold.
Personally I am still convinced of VPHM (great product, good pipeline), my entry price is 11.55$; so I am still fine ;D
But:
It is hurting if you realize that the stock price was @ 24 a few weeks ago.
Probably I have to adjust my trading rules (more stop loss or setting stop losses with more than 80% profit ???)
p.s.: check KOMG AH price action :o
best regards from snowy Stockholm
yours
OLIVER
Basis the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, we can "see at a glance" that on November 13, VPHM gapped down below the Kumo (Cloud..the vertical lines), then on the ensuing rally, VPHM "chased" the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud). The rally ended on November 23 at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which provided resistance.
We've got quite a number of bearish factors in this chart coming off the early November high of 24.36. VPHM has a chance here to stop acting bearish here, by forming a double bottom in this 15.44-15.79 horizontal support zone, and then taking out the recent high of 18.74.
Quote from: la-onda on November 29, 2005, 05:52:55 AM
my entry price is 11.55$; so I am still fine ;D
Oliver,
You're still in great shape with that nice entry!
Quote
But:
It is hurting if you realize that the stock price was @ 24 a few weeks ago.
Probably I have to adjust my trading rules (more stop loss or setting stop losses with more than 80% profit ???)
That's always tough, trying to catch tops.
A couple of suggestions, retrospectively, using VPHM (hindsight always is 20/20, isn't it? ;) ).
1. The Bearish Island Reversal was a sign that the stock could be in trouble. That pattern often signals a big move in the opposite direction.
2. Trendline #2 was a validated trendline (at least 3 hits). When a stock puts on the booster rockets to the upside, like VPHM did, it's not a bad idea to get out, or at least to take partial profits on a break of that steeper trendline (T2). It was broken on November 10, just under $20.
Quotep.s.: check KOMG AH price action :o
Wow...35.01 in AH. Good for you...applause! As you know, I sold KOMG at the 33.60 target, knowing that I might not be able to get back in. Looks like I won't. :(
That's fine. "Take profits at targets...take what's given...you won't get hurt taking profits." ;)
Quotebest regards from snowy Stockholm
yours
OLIVER
best regards from snowy North Pole
yours
MELF ELF ;D
SEC link with all the facts:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3809602#supp61688_7
lots of interesting details, but NO stock price mentioned...
cheers
OLIVER
So now we know more about the big reversal of VPHM (new offering). ::)
Thanks for your analysis and research Melf Elf and La onda (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=6160)
SEC update:
Form 8-K for VIROPHARMA INC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
29-Nov-2005
Regulation FD Disclosure, Other Events
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure
On November 29, 2005, ViroPharma Incorporated (the "Company") filed a Prospectus Supplement to Registration Statement 333-64482 (the "Prospectus Supplement") which included the Company's current estimate that net product sales of Vancocin will be approximately $160 to $170 million in 2006.
Shares of ViroPharma (VPHM:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) fell 3% after the company said it plans to sell 7 million shares of stock in a public offering. The company also granted underwriters an option to buy an additional 1.05 million shares to cover over-allotments. The drug developer said it will use proceeds from the sale to fund working capital and general corporate needs. ViroPharma may also use some of the proceeds to repay all or a portion of its 6% convertible notes due March 2007. Shares were down 43 cents to $16.57.
nice summarization from yahoo board:
one more post before bedtime in Bermuda
by: nothingmanman 11/29/05 10:24 pm
Msg: 75140 of 75153
i'm still holding every single share and every option. I'm hoping this whole shing-ding is due to an opportunity that presented itself to management that required them to generate some quick cash. There's deff "something" to this story though, as they DEFF would not have scheduled to be a part of the Lazard conference and then cancel unless they were required to sush. New SEC rules requires them to be silent until 12/1, so we may hear what this is all about this thursday or early next week (as the offering should be finalized by then). I think they were going about business as normal until something came up that required that cash, they did it (the offering), and are now acquiring either a drug or a company. If that's the case and it adds to the bottom line significantly in '06 to the tune of $2+ EPS (total), this should see a hard-core spike.
Their '06 guidance on Vancocin alone of $160-$170M should generate about $1.25 MINIMUM ($160M revenues * 52% net income % for the 3 month period ending 9/30/05 [which should be the norm cuz no other activity occurred and that's at current Vancocin prices, = $83.2M / 66.8M shares = $1.25). That's assuming no more price increases and trials for Mirabavir and HCV for the full year, just like Q3 (i.e. conservative). I'm realisitcally expecting $1.50.
As i said, if a new acquisition gets them to $2+ in '06, you're looking at a 2-drug company that justifies a 30+ PE multiple and EPS of $2+, giving it a fair value at that point of $60+. We REALLY need this to be an acquisition.
And just for shits and giggles, they bought Vancocin for something like $120M and royalties (w/o looking back), and that generated (before any price increases and the increase CDAD cases) $21M in revenues in Q1 (excluding the other $6M in other revenues), and net income of $11M. That means $120M in acquisition costs should equate into about $30-40M or so in net income if they pick a winner, but not necessarily a "Vancocin"-type winner (home run). $30-$40M in income / 66.8M shares = $.44 - $.60 in income. That gets us to the $2+ mark.
Even if they "only" add $20M for the year, that's still $.30. Throw in 1-2 price increase on Vancocin (as piper has estimated a further 65% upside in price), and that'll get you to your $2+ EPS too... Remember, a price increase to Vancocin flows entirely to income (after taxes, at 15% due to their huge NOL & R&D Credits).
I'm betting on an acquisition and i'm betting my $17.50 calls will still be winners...
finally, good night all...
I will not sale any of my shares and I am thinking to increase my VPHM portfolio if there are any buy opportunities around 15$ ;D
cheers
OLIVER
I just bought back 3000 shares of VPHM. It looks like it may be moving again. Hopefully the secondary offering is done now and the stock can rebound. The 20ma is 18.64 ? It closed after hours at 18.67 and the macd line may be crossing up.
yahoo board quotation:
technical view
by: tom14100 (51/M/KS)
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 12/03/05 09:03 pm
Msg: 75986 of 75997
V continues improving and with every passing day another technical indicator triggers additional buy signals. On Friday the Chaikin Oscillator pushed higher breaking it's intermediate downtrend line reflecting stronger accumulation. It also broke through the 50EMA and the RSI crossed over the 50% point, again, a show of more strength. The Volume Oscillator is still below zero though and still falling. This is the only short term weakness I am finding, but I think it is just a reflection of uncertainty over the offering & use of funds. How those questions play out, I'm sure most here will agree will determine whether we rocket upwards or get pounded. As for trend signals, the MACD has risen to the signal line and a decent day Monday should push that over triggering another buy signal. The DMI trendline is still negative, but the D+ crossed above the signal line. A couple good days and it should cross above the D- for another buy signal. It is currently sitting on the middle Bollinger Band and again I think a decent day Monday will push it into the upper half also triggering a buy signal. And finally the P&F charts reflect V in demand and at a double top, in an uptrend. $19.00 triggers a new P&F buy signal.
On balance, these bode well for the stock and the odds strongly favor a continuation of the move up. I am very encouraged, but news trumps technicals, so I wait with everyone else for the answer to the million dollar question(s) to be answered. Personally I expect good news (from a long perspective) and have added to my position this past week.
Well Here's the offering price:
Any Comments
12/06/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--ViroPharma Inc.'s (VPHM) secondary offering of 9 million shares was priced at $16 each.
The company previously expected to offer 7 million shares. ???
Last month, the company said it would grant the underwriters the option to purchase up to an addtional 1.05 million shares.
Goldman Sachs & Co. was sole book-running manager for the offering. Piper Jaffray & Co. was the joint lead manager and SG Cowen & Co. LLC and Lazard Capital Markets LLC were co-managers of the offering.
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?StoryId=Cq5uA0aebqLqWmdG3nte
I am hoping that Goldman Saches is looking for a double from here to pay for their $500K/person bonus. :-)
ViroPharma Prices Public Offering
Wednesday December 7, 7:53 am ET
ViroPharma Prices Public 9 Million Share Offering at $16.75 Per Share
EXTON, Pa. (AP) -- Drug developer ViroPharma Inc. said Wednesday that it priced its underwritten public offering of 9 million shares at $16.75 apiece, before underwriting discounts and commissions.
ViroPharma has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an added 1.4 million shares.
The company said it plans to use the roughly $142 million in net proceeds from the offering for working capital and general corporate purposes, to repay its debt, or for business development.
Goldman Sachs & Co. acted as the sole book-running manager for the offering. Piper Jaffray & Co. was the joint lead manager and Lazard Capital Markets LLC and SG Cowen & Co. were co-managers.
Shares of ViroPharma slid 21 cents to $17.24 in pre-market activity.
Would anyone like to offer any TA on this now that we have the pricing behind us and a nice high volume up day??
Thanks. ;D
How does VPHM look now? Do you think it is on it's way up...
There is a CCI buy signal... ;)
tomorrow will be very interesting, lots of management trades >:D
wlpease check:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3841012
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3841013
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3841015
= CEO is buying lots of shares !
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3841016
cheers
Oliver
updated chart
VPHM: Short Interest UP 13.5% to 5.1M in Dec 2005
Wednesday, December 28, 2005 06:00 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 13.5% to 5,087,230 shares for the month ended mid-December, 2005.
SYMBOL NOVEMBER DECEMBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ---------- ----------- --------------
VPHM 4,482,392 5,087,230 +604,838 +13.49% 3
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,053,395, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
update via quotation:
nice beginning in 2006 ;D
TA:
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=3&cobrand=windchart&mode=stock
charts:
>:D here we go!
VPHM: Janney Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $26; Analyst Notes
Friday , January 06, 2006 12:18 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Janney Montgomery Scott Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $26.00
Analyst Comments: According to the firm, VPHM has experienced a significant turnaround last year and is "now one of the few profitable companies within the bio-pharmaceutical industry."
This rating information was reported by TheFlyOnTheWall.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.2ed6db432cce47ac26372184f89b798084b4c6f0fb2fe3770c70c7f21e280d81
Finally seeing the breakout today.
Important to close above $20 to get past the psychological resistance
Just came out after market. Sure does not hurt to have the largest funds in the world (Fidelity) now takes 10%+ ($100M+) of VPHM.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20060110\ACQDJON200601101618DOWJONESDJONLINE000736.htm&symbol=VPHM&selected=VPHM&selecteddisplaysymbol=VPHM&coname=ViroPharma%20Incorporated&logopath=%2flogos%2fVPHM.GIF&market=NASDAQ-NM&pageName=Company%20News&kind=&mode=frameset&formtype=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=news
just awesome; applaud
>:D >:D
http://edgar.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=4123291&Ty pe=ORIG
Fidelity is finally on board with 6,567,500 shares or 10.118% ownership. VPHM is now in the elite class.
The more I see into details of big pharma and biotech companies the more I get convinced that VPHM is the most attractive stock in its sector.
Altough technically VPHM couldn't hold that steep long term ascending trendline, fundamentals are just too good for me to continue ignoring them.
I'll defend my bullish case on VPHM better on following updates. Also there is great information on the rest of this thread.
I believe this VPHM come back to the 3 SOF Portfolio will make a lot of people happy, especially myself :D
I'll buy VPHM around today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of capital as always.
Yes that will make me happy too. May buy it.
I am holding ELN, and see it has the required stimulus to go further high.
Filled a gap today from the Nov sell off, shaping up nicely for move towards the $22 to $24 zone
Yes, I like VPHM. It now has lots of cash in the bank (for a possible acquisition?) and a product that is profitable. I always thought it would go to $35 ... I guess we shall see.
Hey Fred,
I think there is something wrong with your entry price ( probably typing error - 20,75 instead of 20.75 ).
You might want to check it out ;)
This is one I bought on a dip ($16.70) and am so glad I held through the "Generic" scare the MMs tried to put on the investors.
Glad to have some focus on this from the group moving forward.
QuoteFilled a gap today from the Nov sell off, shaping up nicely for move towards the $22 to $24 zone
OK Ok it just had a sneaky peek into the gap ;)
Here's a graph of VPHM's revenue trend:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13283;image)
(sorry for your eyes, I just love these Excel colours :))
2005 and Vancocin did this to VPHM. I believe it will never go back down, because Vancocin sales won't stop (probably they won't stop growing).
But I still have to study more (particularly, I need to read this entire thread)
On the pipeline VPHM has this:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=13284;image)
Like in stocks, perhaps it is better to have just 3 or 4 good products than a lot of them that will never come to the market.
The most interesting part of VPHM's financials are their margins: over the last quarter, gross margin was 85.7% and net margin was 51.42%. If these margins continue, the company will have net profit of $86.44M in 2006, and the forward earnings multiple is 16 (but analysts don't predict such a high number for net profit).
I'll keep on holding VPHM.
What I see VPHM:
Short term: down, long term: up
I made a short term trade this morning in $19.9 out $20.4
The short term trend is down and will take position later on weakness.
Yesterday, it gave a bearish candlestick signal (trend reversal - doji is always a good indication of reversal).
There is no doubt VPHM is a growth stock.... but i think it's not time yet to buy, will wait & see for a while... goodluck ;)
Well Terlisa timing is always difficult but over the long run I wouldn't really care about my entry point on Viropharma.
David thought that 6.05 was a great entry point in June 05 and he was right as usual. unfortunately he also thought that 7.19 was a good time to take profit. Hmmmmm.......
The point is that VPHM by all measures is extremely attractive priced even today. You might be able to get in a bit lower but then you might also miss the train. It seems to me that more people have made mistakes selling than buying too early.
I and a few other members are up +500% on VPHM just by holding the stock. Today I can't even remember whether I bought it at 4 or 4.5 but I for sure wouldn't sell it at this level.
Mike
Michael
I can only applaud your last statement.
Whenever we buy a company's stock, we always believe that it will bring us good return.
But I do not trust any company no mattr how good it looks like.
All of us must remember how good EYII.OB was when we first knew this stock. It lost 80% from our buying price ($0.1 -> $0.02). This is the first company I did not set up stop-loss becuse its picture was so rosy at that time. Eventually I lost almost $9,000. I still have $500 worth of stock in my account now.
My manager almost fired me because of this bad investment.
Never trust any company no matter it is microsoft, GE, GM, DAL, ... unless it can bring me money.
Therefore, the first thing after I bought a stock is to set up stop-loss of 7%
unless it gaps down like FORD did last December (no way to escape).
This is just risk management needed for long term investment.
There is no difference for VPHM.
For VHPM, $20.75 x 7% = $1.45, that is I will sell it if it dropped to $19.30l (I did not own it right now). It may recover, but I will sell anyway.
So it is very important to buy at proper pivot price.
For long term, we should not short SPY, QQQQ at all.
They will certainly bring us on average 7-8% return per year.
I think that our 3StocksOnFire is to identify momentum stocks (either up or down) to make much better return than the market returns. All of David's last year's picks follows this idea.
If the momentum of a particular stock continues, keep it. It may last one year or more.
Have we changed the investment strategy?
Look at VPHM chart, it could go either way (short term) and it may touch $19.30 if the general market turns bearish next few days.
Quote from: shawFund on January 12, 2006, 09:25:39 PM
It may recover, but I will sell anyway.
I agree with this 100%. When I need to get out, I get out. It may or may not "recover", and I never bet on it. I'd rather take the loss and put my money elsewhere and try to "recover" with a new trade.
You got it all... right on the spot Shawfund ;)
QuoteDavid thought that 6.05 was a great entry point in June 05 and he was right as usual. unfortunately he also thought that 7.19 was a good time to take profit. Hmmmmm.......
Nice to read things from you Michael, I thought you would show up if I bought VPHM ;)
I have to congrat you for the excellency of your VPHM pick and the management of the position after you bought. Your trade was excellent. But mine wasn't as bad as you paint, since I bought the stock back around $9 and sold around $16.
Anyway, I think holding the stock for the long term was and is the best strategy.
QuoteAll of us must remember how good EYII.OB was when we first knew this stock. It lost 80% from our buying price ($0.1 -> $0.02). This is the first company I did not set up stop-loss because its picture was so rosy at that time. Eventually I lost almost $9,000. I still have $500 worth of stock in my account now.
My manager almost fired me because of this bad investment.
EYII.OB is an OTCBB stock. It was for a particular kind of trade, a «double or nothing» trade. I'm also down 80% on that trade, but I lost only $800.
Why? Because I specifically said (a dozen times) I would only invest $1,000 on that very risky strategy. Money management is the most important skill that a trader/investor needs to develop.
QuoteI think that our 3StocksOnFire is to identify momentum stocks (either up or down) to make much better return than the market returns. All of David's last year's picks follows this idea.
If the momentum of a particular stock continues, keep it. It may last one year or more.
Have we changed the investment strategy?
I don't know about you shawFund, I guess not, but I'm changing. I'm migrating from being a trader to be an investor. I'll write an article explaining why.
This doesn't mean I'll let a loss grow more than it should. But it does mean I'll work hard to pick stocks that go up several fold while I'm on board for the long term move.
You see, you work to get your 5 or 10% on each trade, right? But, if you hold a rising stock for the long term, those 5 or 10% may mean another double for a long term investor. On a good long term pick you may collect several doubles in a few weeks, much easier than with short term trading.
Now, the difficult part is to find the right stocks to get advantage of this incredible
leverage ! I'm working on that ...
You can see from my words that I'm tired ... let's move on.
VPHM went down 3% yesterday to close at support. It may go down a bit further, I really don't know. What I do know is that on a comparative basis with other pharma stocks, VPHM is still very cheap.
Being «cheap» is not my sole basis for investing, of course. I'm studying and looking to own 15 good stocks for the long term, VPHM might be one of those. It depends on further investigation.
I want to make less trades/better trades to continue achieving superior
long term results.
Dave I personally commend you on your new investment direction. I have followed 3SOF for 6 months and in my case allot of money has gone as trading expenses. Just one question; would you consider increasing the size of your trades,in other words reducing your portfolio from 15 stocks or 6.66%.
uc.
Quote from: usedcasting on January 13, 2006, 08:42:28 AM
Dave I personally commend you on your new investment direction. I have followed 3SOF for 6 months and in my case allot of money has gone as trading expenses. Just one question; would you consider increasing the size of your trades,in other words reducing your portfolio from 15 stocks or 6.66%.
uc.
Perhaps that's a good idea, since finding good stocks for the long term is so hard, why not consider a maximum of 10 stocks instead of 15?
I think if one considers candlesticks, trendlines, moving averages and stuff like that one will never, ever, have a 20 or 30 bagger in his portfolio. Consider this: a stock that you own goes from $1 to $30. Then it rises 10% more, to $33. The man that bought at $30, made 10%. But you quadrupled your initial money, again.
Does anyone think it is possible to own a stock from $1 to $30 solely based on technical analysis? I know it is impossible, there are so many false signals and times when the stock turns bearish for a while, before it runs higher again.
Thanks for your suggestion and support uc., I'll think about it over the weekend and possibly write an article on a strategy shift.
Well for me I have already shifted my strategy. From short term to now medium to long term investor. I have almost the same reasons and one more. I dont have time to flip and flop. I am very pleased that David is thinking about that. And the allocation of 10% would certainly help.
Goodluck and Applaud David.
I totally agree that
1. We can reduce the number of stocks in the portfolio to 10 from 15;
2. Identify good stocks similiar to VPHM, NTRI, TIE, FORD, AOB, SINA, SOHU, IMOS etc. in their early stage (price in $2-$3) and just break-out -
Those stocks have the feature that they are either from lossing money to earning money, or they are earning money but unnoticed by the public so price is very low such as AOB, FORD, IMOS.
The best time to identify those companies is during their quarterly earning release. This takes time but is worth the effort.
SINA, SOHU, NTES gained from $1 -> $45 in one year because they turned from buring money to making money.
FORD was $2 stock even it was making money in 2003 - 2004. Then it break-out in late 2004.
I also found out that the best time to take position is not at their first break-out. Instead, wait for their pull back. In most cases after their first break-out, they will have a pull back because investors had doubt whether the good earning was one time thing or it couldl continue. You can look at SINA, SOHU, FORD, AOB, FNSR historical charts.
So we should focus on low priced stocks.
Take FORD as an example, the company was making money in 2003-2004 but the stock traded flat. Every time, they announced earnings, the stock breaks out then pulled back. Things changed in later 2004.
The followings are FORD financial and its weekly chart from 2003 to 2005:
Here is the chart for SOHU in 2002: After its first profitable quarter, its price broke out then pulled back. It traded in a rage for few months then broke out again and never went back.
Here is the chart for FNSR:
May be it is still in its early stage.
Earning reason is coming. It is good time to find out good companies to invest long term.
May be, everone of us can contribute one or two candidates and let DAVID figured out whether to put it on the portfolio.
But no matter how good, I will stick with 7% stop-loss rule.
That is, the entry point is still quite important.
If we can identify 10 good companies in their early stage of development, we will be very successful by year-end even may be only 2-3 stocks eventually made 10-bags.
Shawfund,
Great idea. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and insight. I vote for NFLD. It is currently trading at the bottom of it's range and is at support. The company should complete Phase III trials for it's blood substitute Polyheme early next quarter.
I scaned December 30, 2005 data, only two stocks gained more than 1,000% last year
and only 30 stocks gained >200% (average volume > 100,000) among 8,000 stocks.
Among them, the stocks we may be quite familiar with are:
GGR, VPHM, NTRI, TIE, NDAQ, DESC, HANS, DCEL, BOOM, GAP, MYOG, BTUI, ...
That is, if we buy-and-hold stocks to invst for long term - one year, the chance is very small that it will gain 200% by the year-end (0.375%).
See the table below
I totally agree with Shawfund, if we go for the long term-strategy.. we want to pick stocks to invest in their early stage, just like what happened to AOB, VPHM, GGR, NTRI, BOOM (all started @ $1-$2 level) ;)
*** I bought BOOM @ 6.25 last NOV. 2004.. if i just held onto it i could have made 1500% by now ;) *** we need that long-term strategy NOW!! i'm also tired searching stocks. ;)
By the way BOOM is my second trade first is MXO made good money from it... then i spotted this OTCBB & PINK & that year i'm losing about $6,000.
Take a good look @ NTRI & HANS, these are the kind of chart & LONG-TERM trade we want... prices just staying above the 13 DAY EMA....VERY BULLISH!!
I've learned alot from this board, and still learning. Great people and minds here! I've learned alot about technical analysis and how to interpit buy and sell points (still need to learn more). Its not hard to find a stock that is going up, But When to sell is the problem.
David called the sell point on this stock once but I held (my bad).
I was ready to panic and sell but he called the exact point to re-buy.
so I bought more. :) (page 13). Technicals are great, but when you can back them up with fundementals, you can sleep a lot better. If David picks a stock and the fundementals look good, thats the one I'll buy.
If the plan looks good I'll hold (check cncn bought at .14 sold half at .36) Thanks David, I liked your plan. I think VPHM still has alot of upside. I think the main reason it is down is because they are afraid of a generic version of vanocin. Even if one is approved it could take up to five more years. Followed this for quite awhile. Was probably my first post here.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=139.0
bought at 3.25 sold at 21.90, Looks like a good time to buy back. Any ideas on potential upside?
Hi Dave,
Your new strategy sounds quite a bit like Braden Glett's "Stock Market Stratagem". I believe that it's the best market-related book that I've read ( and I've read quite a view!). It's a relatively-quick read and I highly recommend it to you. It's instilled a discipline into my investing strategy that I sorely lacked and has worked wonders on my portfolio.
Applaud shawfund. You are hitting the right cord. Finding big winners early and sticking with them is something which may take much more effort and time. By reducing the no. of holdings on 3SOF or even starting a new portfolio on 3SOF if David can afford the time. Or making 5 stocks as real long term buy and hold and 10 stocks with the current strategy. This would help in finding the true 'the kind that I want'.
Aside from VPHM, the current 3SF portfolio has GIGM, DIET, and perhaps ANGN looking like a long term hold.
-Valueseeker
Some great discussion on this thread and all very informative, excellent.
For some time now, I have been mulling over moving to longer term holdings and trying to identify and stay with bigger winners. A thread to discuss longer termer was started here http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4267.0
My conclusions which are not set in stone yet are that I should:
Trade bigger positions (but maintain good money management, exactly what will depend on number of holdings and risk tolerance factors, but still cut losses quickly)
• Have fewer holdings (5 to 10 max)
• Make fewer trades (but be prepared to be stopped out and re-enter again later should correct conditions re-occur )
• Trade 52 week high / all time high stocks (By definition these are strong stocks which have on-going momentum and that many traders believe to be unable to continue upwards, in fact they become short targets which conversely helps fuel the momentum)
• Pay heed to shares outstanding (say less than 30 million)
• Pay heed to insider and institution hold percentages (insider holds should be strong, institutional not too high say less than 30%)
• 100K or so average daily vol (to ensure decent liquidity)
• Quarterly earnings increasing (Shawfund is right to identify this as a key parameter to finding new stars about to launch)
• Fledgling or hot industry (not always necessary, but good for added fuel)
• Add to strong positions on pullbacks to support (this is not in every case needed, but why try to find new candidates when with good money management you can add on the way up). This brings in to question the diversification of portfolio debate i.e. am I at more risk with bigger positions and fewer holdings. Both sides to this debate are valid, I am beginning to believe that holding and having deeper knowledge on a smaller number of stocks is safer than a broader number where I have limited or no knowledge of the company)
Once some candidates are identified and fit the right criteria, set buy stops to enter when they breakout per identified conditions (e.g. to new 52 week/all time highs with increasing vol) Rather than buy them because they were identified the night before.
The above is not ground breaking new information, it is a known methodology that is being used right now by many traders. The aim to find a) stocks with ongoing momentum (and to buy as they continue up) and b) stocks starting to gain momentum (and to buy earlier in the move, this being a lot harder and more prone to failure than a)
I used some of the above conditions to identify and enter HANS a few days ago. http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4290.0 HANS was less than $5 2years ago, today its $104 and still rising on strong momentum. Not long ago I would have shied away from buying an $80 stock which had already given multiple bags, now I am seeing this is exactly what I should be buying.
I am not saying I have a magic formula or guaranteed system. I am still piecing together my approach. I am trying to move the risk reward ratio further to my advantage.
Besides HANS which I hold too, I think VLO too falls in the same category with even more attractive valuation. And ELN [I am long on it] though an underdog and well below 52week highs, is filling the big gap.
Thanks for your posts and strategic considerations :) I wrote my opinion on this subject on The Spirit of 3 Stocks on Fire (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4305.msg42061#msg42061).
Considering VPHM, although I love the stock, I feel I still don't know enough about their business model (or its industry) to consider it a long term pick. I find biotech and pharma stocks particularly hard to value and understand. I'm not familiar with the biotech and pharma industry.
But looking at the numbers on a comparative basis, VPHM seems to be still trading at deep discount when compared with its sector averages.
For now I'll just say that I'll continue holding VPHM and I'll investigate further to know if I can call it a Long Term on Fire Stock.
Quote from: David Randolph on January 16, 2006, 07:32:52 AM
Considering VPHM, although I love the stock, I feel I still don't know enough about their business model (or its industry) to consider it a long term pick. I find biotech and pharma stocks particularly hard to value and understand. I'm not familiar with the biotech and pharma industry.
But looking at the numbers on a comparative basis, VPHM seems to be still trading at deep discount when compared with its sector averages.
Drug stocks have long been a favorite of mine. I do not think VPHM a long term holding; I think it fully valued. VPHM has one product, an antibiotic, for which it paid $116 million to Lilly. An antibiotic is not a bet the farm type of drug. The company has a $1.1 billion market cap based on selling about $100 million per year in that product. That gives it a price to sales ratio of about 10. VERY VERY high. The big drug cos (like a Pfizer) is only 3 or 4 these days, and even Amgen is about 8. Trailing EPS is about 20 times, and guesstimate for 2006 is 18 times ... not a small number these days for a drug stock. The development pipeline is not particularly impressive, and only one product has hit phase two. Finding this stock when it got the rights to Vancocin was a great find and congratulations to all who profited (I never bought in - found it too late). But I think that this stock has had its run and will essentially be dead money for awhile.
Hi Big Dog,
Before I start to abuse you let me just say that I in general like dogs - especially big dogs ;)
Well I don't know if I would bet my farm on VPHM (or any stock for that matter) but I have earned enough on VPHM to buy a small farm. You might want to do a little DD before you take your final decision on Viropharma.
VPHM does not have any Antobiotics. They have the only known cure for Diff C a bug that is spreading with pandemic speed in the US. As a result of this they have been able to increase the price of Vancocin very significant.
Based on the subscription numbers it seems like the price increases have had no influence on the demand for the drug (hardly surpirsing if you are dying!).
Concerning their pipeline they do actually have a couple of drugs with the potential to be blockbusters.
and finally an PE (I assume you refer to PE) of 20 is actually very cheap for a biotech stock like VPHM.
Of course this is only my opinion. I could be very wrong.
Mike
Quote from: Michael on January 18, 2006, 03:05:01 PM
Hi Big Dog,
Before I start to abuse you let me just say that I in general like dogs - especially big dogs ;)
Well I don't know if I would bet my farm on VPHM (or any stock for that matter) but I have earned enough on VPHM to buy a small farm. You might want to do a little DD before you take your final decision on Viropharma.
VPHM does not have any Antobiotics. They have the only known cure for Diff C a bug that is spreading with pandemic speed in the US. As a result of this they have been able to increase the price of Vancocin very significant.
Based on the subscription numbers it seems like the price increases have had no influence on the demand for the drug (hardly surpirsing if you are dying!).
Concerning their pipeline they do actually have a couple of drugs with the potential to be blockbusters.
and finally an PE (I assume you refer to PE) of 20 is actually very cheap for a biotech stock like VPHM.
Mike,
You are one of my favorite posters, and I own some stocks thanks to you. Being a dog lover just makes it better.
"Vancocin" is the only product and it is an antibiotic. From VPHM's website: "Vancocin® capsules is the only antibiotic approved to treat two significant bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. The product is indicated for oral administration for treatment of enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus (including methicillin-resistant strains) and antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by Clostridium difficile.
Clostridium difficile ("Diff C" as you call it) is a well known problem medically. Clostridium difficile is a bacterium that, sometimes during or after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract and produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea. Healthy people usually do not get C. difficile disease. Hospitalized patients, particularly those who receive broad spectrum antibiotics, sometimes do, and these are usually elderly patients. C. difficile infection has become one of the most common nosocomial (spread patient to patient in a hospital) infections. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention estimates somewhere between 450,000 to 750,000 cases per year with wide ranges of severity. Death is a rare result -- diarrehea (albeit a bad case of the sh**s) is the more common result. So what are we really dealing with? (1) An antibiotic, though one with an advantage in treating this particular disease. (2) A disease that does not hit the general population in pandemic fashion and that generally is not a life or death disease (3) A disease with an appreciable number of cases in hospitals. (4) A disease that particularly strikes the elderly (and that usually means that pricing power will be limited between Mediwhateveritis and insurance).
Given that VPHM did not really develop Vancocin, I am skeptical of its very thin pipeline. In fact, it has only one compound in phase 2 trial (maribavir), and it acquired the rights from GlaxoSmithKline which had been developing it. I never value a drug company (and this one is a drug company, it is not a biotech company as its products show) based on things in phase one trials (a phase one means only that it is safe to put the compound in the human body - it shows nothing about efficacy). The product in phase two is for the treatment of CMV retinitis in HIV (+) patients – that may be a good thing, but it is hardly a blockbuster type drug.
I have done significant DD on this stock. If I had found it at last May for $2 a share ... yes I might be able to buy a farm now too. Congratulations to you. But buying in at $20 is something that will not buy a farm, and given the number of large dogsthat I feed, it probably will not pay for too many of those trips of buying 300 pounds of food at a time! (the picture is of Molly, one of my five Saints).
Hi Bigdog
Well I better be more polite. Your dogs are bigger than mine :D
I think you are a little concervative when it comes to the pipeline. A cure against the common cold might add a little to VPHM's bottom line!
I wrote a little about the pipeline long time ago (not sure the below was what I actually posted!):
QuoteMaribavir is a drug for the treatment of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) disease. You will probably be surprised to know that you most likely suffer from HCMV.
Cytomegalovirus is a common virus that infects people of all ages and in all parts of the world. In the United States, between 50% and 85% of adults will be infected with CMV by the age of 40. However, in many other countries most people acquire CMV as children or adolescents. Most infections with CMV are "silent," meaning the person infected has no signs or symptoms.
CMV is a real problem for people infected with AIDS, people who's immune system has been suppressed due to organ transplants and for babies who's immune system is not fully developed.
Maribavir was in development by GSK for the treatment of CMV retinitis in HIV+ patients. VPHM acquired the exclusive worldwide rights (excluding Japan) to develop and commercialize maribavir for the prevention and treatment of cytomegalovirus infections related to transplant (including solid organ and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation), congenital transmission (infants), and in patients with HIV infection.
VPHM advanced maribavir into phase 2 clinical trials in patients that have undergone allogenic stem cell (e.g., bone marrow) transplantation in the third quarter of 2004.
It is difficult to estimate the market for Maribavir. The HIV market is obviously the largest but here affordability will be an issue.
The transplant market is smaller but VPHM has focused on this segment. In the U.S. alone, there are approximately 9,000 stem cell transplants, and over 23,000 solid organ transplants on an annual basis.
Finally there is the market for newborns effected with HCMV. Approximately 1% of newborns are infected with CMV. Most of the infected infants will be symptom free; however 10% (about 4,000 infants each year) may have one or multiple abnormalities.
I will not try to put a figure on the revenue potential as it really depends on the side effects of the drug compared to existing drugs on the market (these drugs are quite toxic!!!) but the potential is significant (Higher than Vancocin).
Pleconaril is a cure for the common cold caused by the rhinovirus. I don't think this disease needs any further introduction! According to a 2003 study, the U.S. population suffers 500 million colds a year, at a cost of $40 billion.
Pleconaril works wonders against many, though not all, rhinoviruses. But three years ago, the Food and Drug Administration decided not to approve it, in large part because it seemed to reduce the effectiveness of birth control pills. The new spray seems to resolve this problem and the drug might be on the market as early as next year according to Newsweek.
VPHM has signed an agreement with Schering-Plough and received an initial license fee of $10 million. VPHM will receive further $65 million in Milestone payments when and if certain milestones are reached. VPHM will in addition receive royalties for the sales of the drug.
If anything can spark a real buying frenzy of VPHM's stock it is probably Pleconaril. Here is a story that can sell newspapers and the publicity and excitement will be huge.
HCV796 is a drug against Hepatitis C. It is estimated that there are at least 4 million Hep C patients in the USA with 175 million worldwide. Current treatments cost about $30,000 per year per patient and are very ineffective. HCV796 is only in phase I but the initial results seem very positive. There are several drugs under development against Hepatitis C so it is against difficult to estimate the market for the drug, but it could be as high as $2 to $3 billion (if not higher depending on the worldmarket!)
As mentioned earlier we should start to see news on all three drugs during the 4 month of this year. As always with Biotech stocks the news can be both good and bad. In the case of VPHM I am not so concerned about bad news as it seems like investors are not valuing the stock based on the pipeline but only on the cash flow from Vancocin. Good news on the other hand can really put this stock on fire
The agreement became effective upon HSR early termination. Schering-Plough has paid ViroPharma the initial license fee of $10 million, and will purchase ViroPharma's existing inventory of bulk drug substance for up to an additional $6 million. ViroPharma is also eligible to receive up to an additional $65 million in milestone payments upon achievement of certain targeted regulatory and commercial events, as well as royalties on Schering-Plough's sales of intranasal pleconaril in the licensed territories, if Schering-Plough gains approval for pleconaril.
In November 2003, the two companies entered into an option agreement for intranasal pleconaril. Since then, ViroPharma conducted a series of clinical studies designed to evaluate the antiviral activity, safety and performance characteristics of the intranasal pleconaril formulation. Based on the assessment of these studies, in August 2004 Schering-Plough exercised its option to move forward and enter into a license agreement for the product. The new intranasal formulation of pleconaril represents an optimized delivery approach for this compound, as compared to the earlier oral formulation for which ViroPharma filed an NDA in 2001.
Mike
Hi Big dog
Just looked through the thread again and I now i understand your response. Vaconcin is inded an antibiotic. I didn't want to challenge that. What I wanted to say is that it is not like any other antobiotic as there are no alternatives to Vancocin.
Sorry about that - English is my third language so it sometimes comes out in stange ways!
Mike
Quote from: Michael on January 18, 2006, 04:15:31 PM
Well I better be more polite. Your dogs are bigger than mine :D
I think you are a little concervative when it comes to the pipeline. A cure against the common cold might add a little to VPHM's bottom line!
I wrote a little about the pipeline long time ago (not sure the below was what I actually posted!):
Mike,
My dogs eat more too, so I am greatly concerned with making $$$ for chow. :D My other posts did not address pleconaril because I think that it is either a scam drug or that it shows that the management of VPHM are world class idiots. Why do I so say?
Well, if they had a cure for the common cold, selling it for a pittance (and $65m and royalties would be a pittance for that drug) shows idiocy. But I do not label them idiots because I do not think we are dealing with a drug with much potential or that will receive approval. The history on that drug is that VPHM licensed the compound from Sanofi in 1997 (once again, VPHM did not develop anything on its own). The first indication was for enteroviral meningitis, but that indication was abandoned when the clinical trials did not demonstrate efficacy. In 2001, VPHM submitted a New Drug Application of pleconaril to the FDA for the common cold. The FDA rejected it pretty quickly, saying that VPHM had failed to show adequate safety.
Michael, you correctly observed that an issue was that it interacted poorly with birth control pills ... but think about it, that is a common issue for every antibiotic (women on antibiotics are always advised to use alternative methods of birth control while on them).
So what else was going on? ??? Well, it really does not seem that the drug does that much. The two trials for pleconaril involved about 2000 patients who self-reported that they had colds. Half received pleconaril and half a placebo. Participants self-reported the severity of six cold symptoms (like nasal congestion, cough, sore throat...) daily. The best the company could say after the study was to talk of "symtom alleviation" and reduction of the "median duration" of symptoms by one day. In real people terms, the self-reporting by patients was that symptoms went away in 6+ days with treatment and 7+ days with a placebo. Hardly a cure ::) and not necessarily anything better than a good dose of vitamin C each day. The only real science applied – nasal mucus samples were evaluated at baseline and on study days 3 and 6 for picornavirus infection – show that picornavirus infection occurred in 65 percent of self-reported cold victims, and the rate did not differ significantly between placebo and pleconaril groups.
Conclusion. This drug is a bust. The FDA has rejected it twice, and it does not come even vaguely close to curing the common cold.
Lets say I am wrong, and you or someone else believes that the cure for the common cold is here. Then buy Schering Plough (SGP) – it is a company that has had problems for several years and finally seems to be righting its ship. It is back in the black – probably earning 37 cents this year and over 50 cents next year, and it has one of the lowest price/sales ratios of the drug stocks.
I don't know what they did to sharp charts, but I can't save the VPHM chart to post this.... it looks like yesterday (1-18-06) violated the 6 month trend line from the Aug 14 low
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/ImageServlet.CServlet?img=appletpage,700~462~vphm%2Cuu%5Bw%2Ca%5Ddaclyyay%5Bdc%5D%5Bpb50%21b200%5D%5Bvc60%5D%5Biub14%21la12%2C26%2C9%5D~~
To me it looks like it has held th elonger trend line from Aug 12 if you look at the weekly. However, It did break its veryrecent trend line from Jan 3 (low was $17.77). There is a recent secondary trend line from Nov 29 (low was $15.56) from Nov 29 that now intersects at approcx the 50 day. At $19.71 VPHM sits now just slightly above that trend line and the 50 day moving average. I would say this has a good chance to hold here with perhaps an intraday touch of the 50 day.
insoder buying ;D
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3903169
Quote from: la-onda on January 24, 2006, 04:45:16 AM
insoder buying ;D
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=3903169
Thanks la-onda, the new director, John Leone, bought 25,000 shares (through the exercise of options) at price $20.43 (higher than yesterday's close). This is to show confidence from the new member on the team he's joining (he invested $510,750, not a small number, I wonder if it was his own money?).
Anyway, the discussion between bigdogs (some valid bearish arguments), Michael (taking some profits around this point) and other members makes me feel I shouldn't hold VPHM for the long term. But, I also don't see a reason to sell immediately.
Based on the chart structure (please, don't ask me what this means ;D) I think VPHM will rise to the $24-$25 level this quarter. I'll continue holding the stock.
VPHM: Short Interest UP 0.6% to 5.1M in Jan 2006
Wednesday, January 25, 2006 16:25 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 0.6% to 5,117,496 shares for the month ended mid-January, 2006.
SYMBOL DECEMBER JANUARY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 5,087,230 5,117,496 +30,266 +0.59% 5
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,186,285, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
&
ViroPharma to Eliminate Debt
Thursday January 26, 7:30 am ET
- Company Sets Redemption Date for Remaining Convertible Subordinated Notes Due March 2007 -
EXTON, Pa., Jan. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) announced that it will take the final step in eliminating its long-term debt by commencing a full redemption of all of its remaining convertible subordinated notes due March 2007. The remaining outstanding principal amount of the 6% notes is approximately $79 million. On the redemption date, March 1, 2006, ViroPharma will pay holders who have not converted their notes into shares of common stock 100.857% of the outstanding principal amount of the notes plus interest accrued to (but excluding) March 1, 2006 as required by the indenture for the notes. After March 1, 2006, interest will cease to accrue on the notes. A notice of redemption explaining procedures for surrendering notes and receiving payment will be sent on or about January 26, 2006 to all currently registered holders of the notes by The Bank of New York, trustee for the notes. Copies of the notice of redemption and additional information relating to the procedure for redemption may be obtained from The Bank of New York by calling (800) 254-2826.
By redeeming the notes early, ViroPharma will reduce its annual interest expense by approximately $4 million over the remaining one-year life of the notes.
Since David apparently has VPHM in his portfolio, some of us can't view that thread.
Looks like after building quite a base in the 18-21 range, VPHM might be ready to break out. VPHM was missing the needed volume today, but the volume was strong in the final hour or so. Everything looks set for a move higher, as far as I can see. Earnings should be coming up in a month or so, I believe.
Maybe we'll see a little run up?
Thanks for posting the good news on VPHM la-onda :)
ViroPharma to Eliminate Debt (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=18101&guid=%7B0193C52D%2D6075%2D4315%2DB173%2D02BB8A7E96E0%7D&symb=)
This is a move that I welcome, it prevents dilution of shareholder value in the future, and saves money in interest payments.
VPHM's chart says the stock is getting ready to meet the $24-$25 level soon.
I would like to make the same thinking on VPHM and analysts that shawFund did to me on AOB's thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4340.msg42542#msg42542). There's something strange on analyst's predictions for 2006.
Let's see, for the entire 2005 they expect the company to have a net profit per share of $1.03. If we annualize the past 3 quarters we would have something like $1.04, so everything's normal here.
What I find strange are the predictions for 2006 ... they expect revenue to grow from $128.59M in 2005 to $167.2M in 2006 (30% growth). Yet, when they consider EPS, they expect it to rise from $1.03 to $1.10 (just 6.8%):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=14199;image)
If revenue growth is expected to be 30%, why should earnings grow just 6.8%? Only if the cost base increases substantially, but why?
Anyway, with a trailing P/E of 20 I find VPHM attractive here and I'll continue to hold the stock. If we get a close above $21.69 the way is clear for a move up to the next resistance at $24.36.
Hi David,
It seems to me (as said repeatedly in this thread) that the analysts always leave room for the next upgrades every time the upgrade VPHM (now that sounds strange but I hope you get the meaning!).
Vancocin sales are just out and the market likes what they see. VPHM is poised to blast through the analysts estimates with this kind of growth >:D
Can't help loving this baby ;)
VPHM looks very well positioned to attack the long-term (4-year) high of 24.36. It has built a nice base in the 19-21 range and it looks like it might be breaking out of the upward channel its been in since about mid November. I think it'd be set for a run to about 30, with earnings coming up soon.
Also, everyone remembers VPHM, so once it breaks out I can see a lot of volume coming in. I'm not sure what David's saying about this, anyone else have an opinion?
Quote from: Michael on January 30, 2006, 12:18:02 PM
Hi David,
It seems to me (as said repeatedly in this thread) that the analysts always leave room for the next upgrades every time the upgrade VPHM (now that sounds strange but I hope you get the meaning!).
Vancocin sales are just out and the market likes what they see. VPHM is poised to blast through the analysts estimates with this kind of growth >:D
Can't help loving this baby ;)
Thanks for the info Michael, but where do you get that Vancocin data? I can't find it anywhere ... thanks :)
Anyway, VPHM did close above $21.69 and the way to $24.36 is clear. I'll continue holding the stock as I wait for info on Vancocin from Michael.
Hi David,
Good Bless IRC on the Yahoo MB. He posts them every month. The December figure was around 15 million. The forecast for revenue in Q4 is 36.6 million.
Mike
Quote from: Michael on January 31, 2006, 06:27:57 AM
Hi David,
Good Bless IRC on the Yahoo MB. He posts them every month. The December figure was around 15 million. The forecast for revenue in Q4 is 36.6 million.
Mike
Thank's a lot Michael :)
Here's irc203 post: Monthly Sales! (http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=86307)
Yes, revenue estimate is $36.6M, and VPHM did $15M in December alone. Do you have irc203 posts of November and October? That way we would have the correct revenue number, right?
Have you tested his information in the past? I wonder how he gets such valuable info? Perhaps he works on the pharma industry ...
Live and learn, thanks again Michael ! (applaud)
tihs website is based on irc203 numbers:
http://www.jh.b.ms/
regards
O.
As far as I know, IRC203 paid for obtaining the data. it might be $1500/month or per year.
Thanks for the info la-onda and winner919 :)
From la-onda's link, I figure 4th quarter revenues as $38M, against expectations of $36.6M. Yet, EPS estimates came down over the last 30 days, which is a bit odd.
VPHM certainly has the power to surprise on the upside. I'll continue holding.
Sold VPHM for 12.7% gain in 2 weeks.
Money moved to INSM at 2.40.
The decline in EPS maybe be because the nubmer of outstanding shares increased in Dec of 05. I believe a secondary offering resulted in 7million extra shares.
Quote from: kman on February 02, 2006, 01:34:02 PM
The decline in EPS maybe be because the nubmer of outstanding shares increased in Dec of 05. I believe a secondary offering resulted in 7million extra shares.
Yes, probably it was that, thanks for the info kman :)
That may also explain why analysts expect revenue growth for 2006 of 30% and EPS growth of only 6.8%. It is a good thing such dilution is already expected, this way the company has the power to surprise on the upside, if it doesn't dilute earnings at all.
We'll see ... I'll continue holding VPHM.
Quote from: David Randolph on February 03, 2006, 06:19:46 AM
Quote from: kman on February 02, 2006, 01:34:02 PM
The decline in EPS maybe be because the nubmer of outstanding shares increased in Dec of 05. I believe a secondary offering resulted in 7million extra shares.
Yes, probably it was that, thanks for the info kman :)
That may also explain why analysts expect revenue growth for 2006 of 30% and EPS growth of only 6.8%. It is a good thing such dilution is already expected, this way the company has the power to surprise on the upside, if it doesn't dilute earnings at all.
We'll see ... I'll continue holding VPHM.
David,
First time posting on 3stocksonfire...just thought I'd comment on why analyst are showing EPS decreasing to $.25 for 1st qtr '06. Assuming $38.7M in vancocin revenue for the 1st qtr, VPHM will do about $.32 EPS even with the additional 10.4M new shares. Regarding the low 1st qtr EPS forecast, I believe the analyst are expenseing the $4.5M VPHM agreed to pay Lilly in case C-Diff became an epidemic in '06 and they needed more production of the drug. I believe Viropharma will capitalize this cost as part of the acquisition of Vancocin and thus no real impact on EPS.
I follow this company very closely and I can tell you for a fact the $1.10 the analyst are forecasting for '06 is grossly understated and I'll tell you why. Currently, the past 6 months scripts for vancocin are running over 30% higher than the prior year month. On top of this many followers think a large price increase (20-25%) in vancocin will be announced any day now. (I've talked to the company directly about this possibility and they've told me they are well aware vancocin is still underpriced compared to other life saving durgs). The company now has about $175M in cash with no debt, so you can expect an announcement soon of a drug or company acquisition. Along with these positives there will also be an announcement in the 1st qtr '06 of their durg Maribavir, going into phase III testing. Given these developments along with the development of their Hepititus C drug, there is much upside to this story.
I personnally believe we will see this stock appreciate to $35 or more this year. Insiders are still buying...last one at $21...so they believe there is upside. Best of luck to all of you and... thanks David for your keen technical insight.
Very conscise JR, applaud. I agree with your thoughts and would only add how much I have learned about how market makers, rumors, fear and greed have effected the swings in this stock. It's amazing to watch. I have remained 5k long in it since June. Don't let them shake you out.
Quote from: tommyt on February 03, 2006, 10:59:00 PM
Very concise JR, applaud. I agree with your thoughts and would only add how much I have learned about how market makers, rumors, fear and greed have effected the swings in this stock. It's amazing to watch. I have remained 5k long in it since June. Don't let them shake you out.
tommyt, its been a loooonnggg time :D Nice to see you ! Don't worry, I won't let them shake me out, I'll continue holding to enjoy the story as it unfolds.
jrtabor, thanks a lot for this usefull information :)
Quite a team we have here ...
Technically the stock came down to test the $21.69 support, prior resistance. I'll continue holding it whatever happens over the short term.
fun today:
FDA Grants Fast Track Status for ViroPharma's Maribavir for Prevention of Cytomegalovirus Infection
Tuesday February 7, 7:30 am ET
EXTON, Pa., Feb. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted fast track designation for maribavir, an oral antiviral drug candidate for the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in allogeneic bone marrow (stem cell) and solid organ transplant patients. ViroPharma completed enrollment in a Phase 2 study of maribavir in recipients of bone marrow (stem cell) transplant in November 2005, and expects to release the preliminary data from the trial by the end of the first quarter of 2006.
"There is an unmet medical need for improved treatments for the prevention of cytomegalovirus infection and disease in transplant patients due to the limitations of current therapies, which include potential bone marrow and renal toxicities," commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "Fast track designation is an important step in accelerating our efforts to provide a much-needed therapeutic option for these patients. We look forward to working closely with the FDA throughout the process."
An important feature of fast track designation is that it emphasizes the critical nature of close, early communication between the FDA and the sponsor company with the goal of improving the efficiency of product development. Under the FDA Modernization Act of 1997, fast track designation may potentially expedite the review and accelerate approval of a drug that is intended for the treatment of a serious life-threatening condition and demonstrates the potential to address an unmet medical need for such a condition.
Maribavir is a potent and selective, orally bioavailable antiviral drug with a unique mechanism of action against cytomegalovirus and a favorable early clinical safety profile. It is a potent member of a new class of drugs called benzimidazole ribosides. Unlike currently available anti-CMV agents that inhibit CMV DNA polymerase, maribavir inhibits viral DNA assembly and inhibits egress of viral capsids from the nucleus of infected cells. Maribavir is active in vitro against strains of CMV that are resistant to commonly used anti-CMV drugs.
CMV is a member of the herpes virus group, which includes the viruses that cause chicken pox, mononucleosis, herpes labialis (cold sores), and herpes genitalis (genital herpes). Like other herpesviruses, CMV has the ability to remain dormant in the body for long periods of time. Human CMV infection rates average between 50% and 85% of adults in the U.S. by 40 years of age, but in healthy adults causes little to no apparent illness. However, in immunocompromised individuals, CMV can lead to serious disease or death. Patients who are immunosuppressed following hematopoietic stem cell (bone marrow) or solid organ transplantation are at high risk of CMV infection. In these patients, CMV can lead to severe conditions such as pneumonitis or hepatitis, or to complications such as acute or chronic rejection of a transplanted organ. While currently available systemic anti-CMV agents are effective against the virus, their use is limited by toxicities, most notably bone marrow suppression and renal impairment.
Great news la-onda, thanks for posting :)
jrtabor was right on this issue regarding Maribavir, I bet he's right on the other issues too. After all VPHM can develop drugs, so one of bigdogs bearish arguments has gone down.
The news was just out (VPHM wasn't on my update list today) and the stock is trading 3.6% higher in the pre-market action. The risk is on the upside with VPHM, since the revenue base is quite secure and we'll probably continue having positive developments like today's.
Perhaps we'll challenge $24.36 today :D
David, would you like to look at another biopharma stock that may be on fire now? GNBT. They announced successful lab tests on their latest Avian Flu vaccine and are applying for clinical trials with the FDA. They have a press conference scheduled for Feb. 12, pehaps it (the stock) can interest you. I did not know where to post it.
Gracias.
VPHM: Goldman Sachs Starts @ In-Line; Analyst Notes
Friday , February 10, 2006 08:54 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Goldman Sachs & Co.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: In-Line
Analyst Comments: The firm believes the stock has upside potential due to potential earnings and multiple expansion based on Vancocin sales, the main N-T growth driver. They believe the product pipeline's risk/reward is leveraged nicely by corporate partnerships.
Quote from: berloga on February 07, 2006, 09:04:55 AM
David, would you like to look at another biopharma stock that may be on fire now? GNBT. They announced successful lab tests on their latest Avian Flu vaccine and are applying for clinical trials with the FDA. They have a press conference scheduled for Feb. 12, pehaps it (the stock) can interest you. I did not know where to post it.
Gracias.
Thanks berloga, the chart looks interesting, I'll take a look at it when I have some time.
VPHM just touched its short term ascending trendline. I expect the stock to rebound from current levels and I'll continue holding.
Repost from The Technical Analysis Board: The Wolfe Wave Folder
Quote from: Melf Elf on February 14, 2006, 07:06:32 AM
Here's a WW on VPHM. I'll post this one on the 3SOF Members Board since its currently in that portfolio.
I agree with Melf Elf's technical analysis, VPHM has a technical target of about $16. The stock is trading on a lateral range.
I was really slow on this, when the Maribavir news came out and the stock went down there was a smell of trouble in the air. I felt it, but stood still. Guess what, there's a price to pay ... :P
I always felt like I was playing another man's game on VPHM.
I'll take about a 6% loss on VPHM today around the open. Good luck for those that will continue holding, for their own reasons.
David
We are totally out of sync when it comes to VPHM. I was just about to buy when I saw you message. Technically you might be right but fundamentally this stock still has a long way to run.
I will wait a day or two but I really don't think I can wait for you and Melf Elf to get the right technical signal. I already have my signal and it tells me that 19 is a great entry point. 18 is however better so lets see if we can make that!
Mike
Hmmmm.... my last message was too cheap so let me elaborate a bit.
VPHM's forward PE is 17.26.
They will be debt free in the coming months
They are growing earnings at a rate that leaves big pharma's in the dust.
They have a quite interesting pipeline with one drug that has just been given fast track status
and you are selling ???
VPHM only has one problem. It has increased too fast over too short a time.
Show me any other pharmaceutical company that has this kind of track record, pipeline, PE etc. and I will be on the buying side. (I will however also still buy more VPHM - these kind of opportunites don't show up too often!)
Mike
Quote from: Michael on February 15, 2006, 01:57:22 PM
I will wait a day or two but I really don't think I can wait for you and Melf Elf to get the right technical signal.
Mike,
I've given you a smite for that.
You demonstrated this same rude, arrogant, and condescending attitude in the SVA and DNDN folders last November, and depite what I thought were many, many through explanations to you of my work in folders such as KOMG, STX and CKCM, you have stubbornly insisted on misunderstanding what technical analysis is, what it isn't, and you have continue to take swipes at my work.
In November, when I sold DNDN on a break of channel support, very similar to this channel break in VPHM, you had this same arrogant attitude. When DNDN received fast track status for Provenge on November 7, you became more arrogant about how right you were, how wrong UBS was for downgrading DNDN from $7 to $4, and more snide comments about technical analysis ensued.
DNDN made a HIGH on November 7, and it hasn't been far from $4 lately.
In the SVA folder, you asked those of us who were considering shorting SVA on the technicals, "Who the hell would short this stock?" If you look at that chart, it was a great short.
Technical analysis isn't perfect, Mike. David and I make plenty of mistakes, and we both have posted them publicly. Your fundamentals aren't perfect, either. Knock off the arrogance, and join the rest of us. We're human. You are, too.
Hmmm.... I thought I showed respect when I said that I would wait buying due to your and David's assessment of the chart.
Anyhow I know you don't smite easy so I will consider it an honor to be smited by you. At least I must have made an impression.
I am very passionated about my investments and out of the stocks you are mentioning (which is not my best picks) I think my track record is not too bad. I haven't gone back an looked at the exact date I recommended each stock on 3SOF but i think this shows a pretty precise picture of the development in price since then:
SVA 37%
DNDN -26%
KOMG 46%
STX 84%
CKCM 47%
Even though you might not think so I have a lot of respect for TA and am using it on a daily basis. But the truth is that if I had traded based on TA alone I would probably have saved 10% on DNDN but lost between 20% and 80% on the rest.
We all have different trading styles mine really works for me and have done so for the last 20 years.
When I first time posted on 3SOF this was almost exclusively a technical forum. I hope that a little fundamental analysis (or what I like to call common sense) has added value or at least increased the entertainment value. (I might be the only one here but I can really be borred looking at charts all day).
Coming back to the substance of the discussion I am looking forward to your analysis of the reversal of VPHM today. I not saying this because I want to provocate but because I have respect for your skills as I would like you to have for mine.
Mike
Hmmm......Looks like an excellent case of the Technical Guru vs. Fundamental Guru. I highly respect both sides and both of you as speculators, but in this case, I think I got to side on Melf position (near term atleast).
This is almost a near perfect Wolvewave pattern except that I would like to see more of a "lead in" going into the start of the pattern. I am very confident that this stock will plunge near term (like Melf said, $16 price target). So, if I were you Mike, I would wait to buy at that price. I think you'll appreciate Melf a little more in the long run. You have very good fundamental analysis Mike, so I may jump in VPHM for the long term with you if I have any extra funds at the time it drops to $16 ;).
To the both of you..............keep up the good work and let's just all get along. Seriously! ;D
Thai
Well, I jumped out this morning at 19.40 & 19.20 because of the 'wolfwave pattern'. Now I am very interested to see how this all works out! I can not believe how undervalued VPHM is.
By the way, most of my 'long term' stocks are bleeding ....
Like Michael, I am more on the fundamental side than on the technical side. I would like to learn more about the technical to have better entry & exit points. So I am open to learn from both of you.
With respect to VPHM, I bought at $6.35 and sold a lot around $19-23 so that I could invest in other companies. All my shares are free shares and sits in my retirement account for long term hold. I still like the fundamentals of VPHM and think it can double from here this year if the company executes right.
If we just look at the technical signal today, is it a hammer and indicates a "buy" signal? I personally won't buy since I am all invested, but won't sell either.
Melf and Mic :)
Quote from: Terlisa on January 12, 2006, 02:36:56 PM
There is no doubt VPHM is a growth stock.... but i think it's not time yet to buy, will wait & see for a while... goodluck ;)
Melf Elf analysis is right on the spot ;)
fyi:
financial overview link:
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&symbol=N%5Evphm
VPHM: Jumps +3.62%; Vol +54%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Wednesday, February 15, 2006 16:23 ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $19.06 $19.75 +3.62%
VOLUME 1,313,000 2,016,800 +53.60%
#TRADES 3,055 4,063 +33.00%
DAY-HI $19.50 $19.81 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $18.65 $18.65 N/A
Quote from: Michael on February 15, 2006, 05:44:53 PM
Even though you might not think so I have a lot of respect for TA
Mike,
No, I didn't think so because of the comment that you made yesterday, and because of other comments like it that you have made in the past, but I'll take you at your word, and move on.
As far VPHM (or any other stock) is concerned, Mike, I don't make "calls" on the market. I don't predict anything, and I want to be very clear about that because you've made several comments before about "predicting." I try to follow, as best I can. If I have a pattern breakout, then I have a target that is IN PLAY, and I'll try to play it if I catch the breakout (or a pullback).
That doesn't mean that the target will make, or that "technical analysis is wrong" if the target doesn't make. It could be that as an analyst, I had a bad read of the chart, or it could be that something fundamental "trumped" the technicals, as we've discussed in the past.
VPHM was "a sell" near $23, on the failure at the top of the Bearish Channel/Wolfe Wave #5 fakeout. Technical analysis doesn't
tell us to sell. The individual analyst has to decide whether or not to take the trade, based on that pattern/channel failure, the deteriorating technicals, the risk:reward, etc. And, it depends on time horizon, too.
That has nothing to do with the fundamentals, or the longer-term outlook on the stock. It's simply a "trader's signal," so to speak, based on that particular pattern. Do you want to sell/sell short, or not? Up to the individual.
The close below the Bear Channel/Bearish Wolfe Wave pattern on February 13 again is "a sell," and again, that's up to the individual whether they want to take that pattern break as a sell signal, or not. As a trader, I always will take that as a sell, right or wrong.
Does this pattern break mean that we absolutely are going down to the Wave #6 target of $16-$17. Of course not. From the Wolfe Wave 5 high, VPHM just dropped 20% to yesterday's low, and it could reverse and do the very same thing on the upside, on yesterday's Bullish Hammer.
All I can tell you is that the Bearish Channel/Wolfe Wave target is IN PLAY unless or until VPHM can close back inside the broken pattern. Then I'd have to try to assess what's going on, if I'm still paying attention to it (there are a lot of stocks to follow).
For example, on that Bearish Island Reversal that we had in November, I posted in response to Oliver (laonda) that if VPHM could put in a "W" bottom (drawn below the pattern on the chart below) at horizontal support (dotted green lines), it should be alright.
VPHM did just that. It double-bottomed, then took out the middle of the "W"-bottom putting a target of 21.88 IN PLAY, which made within a penny (21.87) on January 11. It subsequently went much higher than that, to the Wofle Wave #5 failure on January 31.
I know that all of this is boring, Mike, and that it can be boring to look at charts all day, but that's the best that I can tell you. I look for patterns, derive targets, and try to play it the best that I can. I don't have "the right technical signal," as you put it, to predict "the high," or "the low," or to predict what this or any other stock is going to do next. That's your own decision.
I only can tell you what looks to be IN PLAY. Right now, it's that $16-$17 target.
Monthly Prescriptions per IMS Health!!!
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 02/15/06 06:02 pm
Msg: 90094 of 90211
Prescriptions totaled 17,261 for the month of January 2006. This total is close to the totals we saw for May and June 2005, which were 17,350 and 17,276, respectively. January's number is outstanding as the monthly prescriptions are only going to increase from this level through the summer and perhaps beyond!
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=90094&um=50&.sig=78rPlvM7Er8DrrrGkQa0lQ--
I checked in on this thread because I wanted to make a joke that if David is going to sell he should at least change the subject to "The kind I
don't want: VPHM" so as not to cause confusion ;D but I ended up getting sucked in to the Melf vs Mike battle! I'm a technical trader like Melf, but I have a bullish read on the stock. My chart below shows that the lower Bollinger band has been a great place to buy. I looked back to October and if you bought the day VPHM touched (or got withing striking distance of) the lower BB, and then sold the day it pierced the upper BB (or a day or two after), you would have made 10-20% each time with a holding time of 1-4 weeks. I may be a buyer tomorrow! It would be my first time playing VPHM.
QuoteIf we just look at the technical signal today, is it a hammer and indicates a "buy" signal?
Valueseeker, the answers are "yes" and "sometimes". Yes it is a hammer. Sometimes that indicates buy if other technical stars are aligned.
Hi Oliver,
Thaks for the January prescription # I had missed that one on Yahoo MB.
It is worth to remember that VPHM made a significant price increase in September so revenue and margin is much higher this time around:
QuoteVancocin capsules in the U.S. Wholesalers will now pay $242.10 for a 20-unit package of 125 milligram capsules, up from $195.76. A 20-unit package of 250 milligram capsules will increase to $446.32, up from $368.86. The price increase, which was not factored into the company's financial guidance issued on Aug. 2, is effective immediately.
Also thanks to Lucas. It is nice to see that there are some TA support. I should have bought yesterday when I was planning to but I can hope Melf Elf's and Terlisa's target is still in play ;)
I am still holding my initial stake bought at around 4.5 so I will only add when there is an excellent opportunity and I thought yesterday was such an opportunity.
Mike
Michael is very right in his fundamental analysis in CKCM, STX, KOMG, BNT, AOB, VPHM and a few more other stocks that I follow. In the long term, DNDN and SVA will turn out to be big winners (short term, sell/hold/buy are up to the individual styles). For stocks like DNDN where they don't show EPS or EPS growth, I think the pps fluctuation is a lot bigger & wait for a true break out can take a lot longer and is event driven (etc. FDA approval), so it's not for every FA person.
I do appreciate the TA analysis on the entire market. You see, 3SF reached 200% but now is under 180%, which represents 11%+ pull back, and that's about the same in my portfolio. VPHM dropped a bit more than the general market (~14% pull back from the top at $23). If we as a group can do a better job of analyzing general market top & adjust the portfolio accordingly, that could improve the portfolio performance.
What I can see is all my portfolio drops a bit more than Nasdaq/S&P600 (small cap stocks) if they have sustained drops for a few days. My personal style is to buy & hold stocks, but would like to reduce my overall portfolio a bit at the start of general market drop such as early Oct./late Dec./last 1.5 weeks. I am now hoping the new Fed chairman's remark has stablized the market.
TA makes money, FA makes money, and that's just up to individual styles.
Hello Lucas Scott,
as i understand Bollinger Bands it is a dynamic measure of volatility.
Therefore is is an attribute by definition that a stock which is down is at the lower band and a stock making a high is at the upper band. I think this works with every stock an has nothing to do with TA. Hope that i'm not wrong with my statement. Can somebody help me out?
Hmmmm... I think I missed VPHM this time. They just announced that they are going to release fourth quarter and year-end financial results for 2005 and guidance for 2006.
I expect that they beat the earnings estimates and guide up for at least Q1. There is more than 5 million shares short. I wouldn't like to be short over the earnings. We all know the routine: they beat estimates, they guide up and PJ upgrade the stock...... (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=4980)
Mike
The following is from Yahoo's MB:
QuoteAs many people know, Lou Navellier is the greatest stock-picker of our times, as proven time and again by the Hulbert Digest in their rankings of performance each year, every 5, 10 and 20 years. There isn't even any argument about it. Over the last 20 years Lou's Emerging Growth Newsletter has done better than 20% per year. Keep in mind that he does this with a large selection of stocks (about 30) so as not to endanger his customers portfolios - he keeps a balanced portfolio.
Lou has selected Viropharma as one of the Top Ten stocks to own in the 10,000+ Stock Universe. His "Buy-Below" price on VPHM is $29. "Buy-below" means that anything under that price can be expected to garner a large profit. It is not a sell point. When a stock price exceeds its buy below, then customers are always urged to keep the stock for the big gains still ahead.
This means that Lou's buy-below is almost $10 away, beyond which he expects outsize gains! The other stock on his Top Ten lost are much closer to their buy-below points, so VPHM offers the best possible gains.
Here is Lou's commentary on VPHM this week (cut and pasted):
"ViroPharma (VPHM), another Top 10 stock, is improving and is an outstanding buy. It has the cure for the common cold and I'm pretty happy with this stock. It's a great buy."
In previous week's commentary he has discussed other products and pipeline efforts of VPHM, but Lou and his staff of 50 tireless researchers obviously is more interested in the prospects of Pleconaril than most people who post here. I agree with him, though it may seems that SGP is moving slowly, the directions they are moving with Plec will probably prove to be much more profitable than anyone realizes.
I do not subscribe to Lou Navellier's services (they are bloody expensive) and I can therefor not confirm if the quotation is correct.
I have followed or invested in a couple of his picks including KOMG, NTRI and BBD. All stocks he picked long before they became the darling of the market.
We have discussed Pleconaril at length in this thread. It is interesting that it seems like he almost consider the approval of the drug as a done deal. VPHM will fly if this is true.
Mike
Quote from: pno on February 16, 2006, 10:06:36 AM
Hello Lucas Scott,
as i understand Bollinger Bands it is a dynamic measure of volatility.
Therefore is is an attribute by definition that a stock which is down is at the lower band and a stock making a high is at the upper band. I think this works with every stock an has nothing to do with TA. Hope that i'm not wrong with my statement. Can somebody help me out?
The point Lucas makes is that if you view the bollinger band as a range, then the pattern of VPHM is (recently) to bounce off the lower bollinger band and fall back at or near the upper band thus making a great entry / exit signal. Bollinger bands have everything to do with TA as they can show this support / resistance (within a range) whether a stock is trending up down or sideways overall.
There is no way I'm letting go of my 5k shares(in since June). Looks like someone is buying them all up from the tree shaking recently, institutional holdings jumped another 15% last month. Friday was a exceptionallly strong day, as options expired: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=VPHM&range=7&mgp=0&x=16&y=21&i=3&hdate=
The more I look at VPHM, the more I remember
what my neighbor (a retired broker from Schwab) told me;
"The MMs and brokers watch TA too - they bust charts as the need suits them"
I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature
( I do think I saw Melf in the Grassy Knoll, though)
But I'm of the opinion this is not going to make the
$16.00 Wolfwave target prior to earnings.
I'm also of the opinion that earnings will validate
the FA and VPHM will move higher.
There are only 4 more trading days
till the earnings announcement, so I'm going to
target the $ 18.40 - $ 18.70 70 range to get back into VPHM.
I drew a few lines :P and this is what I came up with:
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/VPHM2-21chart.jpg)
One caveat - Watch $ 18.40 - If it is breeched, all bets are off and I'll be Wolf chow
yahoo quotation:
monthly projection
by: nocheintyp (36/M/Berlin)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 02/23/06 08:58 pm
Msg: 91449 of 91476
While the handle is forming (referring to Buffett's good posts) I found some time to make another ugly picture ;-) Please look at
http://hometown.aol.de/AndorraMax/VPHMpix/monthly_proj_plot.jpg
Description:
As simple as I am I chose to use law of three for the 2006 prescription numbers' range. I drew ugly coloured levels into the plot from the Vanco site and used the corresponding values to calculate the relative change. The first level (06-08/04) has an average value of 12810 prescriptions. Next level (10-12/04) has 11450 or down 10.6%, and so on.
I used carefully 40% for the level corresponding to (06-08/06) to find 21670 prescr. (from (09-11/05) as base) and -10% for (09-11/06) (from that new value) leading to 19500 p's. These are VERY BIG numbers. If these would come true, p-numbers will increase about 30-35% during total 2006 (very rough eye's view).
Nothing can be said about the intermediate times in this model. As you can see in the graph (12/04-02/05) is flat while (12/05-02/06) seems to see an increase going on. Maybe this behaviour completely falsifies the above outlined level approach. It could mean both, first that the (seasonal) increase is happening right now and may saturate beneath the 40%-up level and second that these bigger numbers will add a little to the total of 2006 (if the decline does not compensate for that). I think the picture may become clearer when (06-08/06)-numbers are available.
BTW, 20000 monthly p's should translate to slightly above 2500 weekly p's (there's a ratio of about 1:2 == weekly sum p's : monthly p's).
OK so my TA is better than Melf's, at least where VPHM is concerned. But who's keeping track? >:D ;D
I didn't buy. I'm tempted to today now that VPHM has moved strongly above its 9 ema and 20 ema but with earnings on Tuesday....
la-onda - you lost me at hello :o
Hi Lucas,
I think you might be more right than you think. I seem to remember that I have read that the PPS tend to move to the upper band after it has touch the lower band.
The upper band is a 23.47 today and I am believe that we will blast through that next week with the earning in sight.
I am really sure that both Melf Elf and David were correct when they saw a technical sell signal last week but I am also sure that they put too much emphasize on technical trading and somehow in the process forgot to look at the fundamentals of the company.
Mike
UPS - TA is a dangerous thing and I got so entangled in Bollinger bands that I forgot to comment on Olivers massage.
From my perspective the message is that if there is seasonality in Diff C infections you might look at a 45% increase in prescriptions for the coming 3 months. I have not been able to find date more than 2 years old and even though there is some seasonality there is not data enough to make a definite statement.
Mike
I have smitted myself for making that wait till $ 18.70 buy call
You can tune a piano or just have one fall on your head
(http://abc.typepad.com/3blindmice/smite-thumb.jpg)
updated numbers:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=91903
& news:
ViroPharma using VA doctor's research
Monday February 27, 12:05 pm ET
ViroPharma Inc. entered into a licensing agreement Monday with Dr. Dale N. Gerding, associate chief of staff for research at the Hines VA Hospital in Chicago, for the rights to develop nontoxigenic strains of clostridium difficile for the treatment and prevention of clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD).
Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The Exton, Pa., specialty pharmaceutical company plans to initially focus its efforts on the opportunity to prevent recurrence of CDAD following treatment with its antibiotic Vancocin.
"We are very excited to be chosen to enter into this agreement with Dr. Gerding to acquire the rights to this very promising early-stage therapeutic opportunity, as it fits perfectly with our strategic focus on this dangerous disease," said Dr. Colin Broom, chief scientific officer of ViroPharma (NASDAQ: VPHM - News).
About 400,000 people a year in the United State are infected with CDAD, typically older patients in hospital settings. Its symptoms range from diarrhea to severe inflammation of the lining of the colon to perforations of the colon, and even death.
VPHM: Short Interest UP 13.2% to 5.8M in Feb 2006
Monday , February 27, 2006 16:31 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 13.2% to 5,792,152 shares for the month ended mid-February, 2006.
SYMBOL JANUARY FEBRUARY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 5,117,496 5,792,152 +674,656 +13.18% 5
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,371,675, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Looks like VPHM had a great quarter. Stock is up $0.90 premarket
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060228/nytu060.html?.v=43
If I am correct, guidance of $2 eps for 2006 makes this about a $60 stock.
Current P/E of 8.20? Come on...this should be a 40+ stock now, talk about a value play.
>:D
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports 2005 Financial Results and Provides Guidance
Tuesday , February 28, 2006 07:59 ET
Feb 28, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) reported today its financial results for the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2005.
Net sales of Vancocin(R) were a record $40.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2005 and $125.9 million for the twelve months of 2005. This compares to $8.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2004. Sales during the 2004 periods are not comparable to the 2005 periods as the Company acquired Vancocin from Eli Lilly and Company in November 2004. Unaudited net sales of Vancocin for twelve months of 2004 were $54.0 million.
Operating income in the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2005 was $28.2 million and $88.1 million, respectively, compared to operating income in the fourth quarter of 2004 of $9.8 million and operating loss in the twelve months of 2004 of $12.0 million. The improvements in operating results from 2004 to 2005 were driven primarily by sales of Vancocin and the related cost of sales.
The Company recorded an income tax benefit of $47.8 million in the fourth quarter of December 31, 2005 to establish deferred tax assets. In addition, for the twelve months of 2005, the Company recorded $10.0 million in income tax expense. These two items resulted in a net income tax benefit for the year of $37.8 million.
Net income in the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2005 was $72.7 million and $113.7 million, respectively, compared to net income of $5.8 million and net loss of $19.5 million for the same periods in 2004. Net income per share for the quarter ended December 31, 2005 was $1.21 per share, basic, and $1.17 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.22 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004. Net income per share for the year ended December 31, 2005 was $2.56 per share, basic, and $2.02 per share, diluted, compared to a net loss of $0.73 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2004.
The primary drivers of the improved results were the effects of operating income and the income tax benefit of establishing deferred tax assets in 2005, partially offset by debt-related costs. The $47.8 million of income tax benefit that was recorded to establish net deferred tax assets increased net income for the fourth quarter of 2005 by $0.80 per share, basic, and $0.76 per share, diluted, and for the twelve months of 2005 by $1.08 per share, basic, and $0.83 per share, diluted. The Company currently does not anticipate income tax benefits of this magnitude in the foreseeable future. Due to the recognition of the deferred tax assets in 2005, the Company currently expects, for financial statement purposes, an effective income tax rate of 38 percent in 2006.
"ViroPharma's simple goal is to create shareholder value by delivering growth, in the short term, mid term, and long term," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "2005 was a year of tremendous performance for our company. To continue growth in the future, we count on several engines: more growth of Vancocin fueled by increasing incidence and severity of disease associated with the ongoing C. difficile epidemic; our current pipeline of clinical compounds, including maribavir for CMV and HCV- 796 for hepatitis C; and the value drivers that we hope to add to the company as a result of our business development efforts."
Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's chief financial officer and chief operating officer, continued, "We are very excited by the expected continued growth of Vancocin in 2006 and beyond, and its implications on our long term financial prospects. The expected growth of Vancocin this year will drive a significant increase in our operating income in 2006 and allow us to make investments in our clinical development and medical education programs during 2006 at a substantially higher rate than we experienced during 2005. Further, we anticipate improvements in gross margins, due the approval of our third party supply chain, in the second half of 2006 and into 2007. We expect these improvements to positively impact our operating income beyond 2006."
Operating Highlights
Net sales of Vancocin were $40.3 million and $125.9 million for the three and twelve-months ended December 31, 2005, respectively, driven by price increases and prescription demand. Prescriptions increased 39.5 percent and 34.5 percent for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2005, respectively, as compared to the same periods in 2004. Additionally, while fourth quarter 2005 prescriptions decreased approximately four percent from third quarter 2005 prescriptions, net sales of Vancocin in the fourth quarter of 2005 increased 13 percent over the third quarter of 2005. The prescription trend in the fourth quarter of 2005 compares favorably to the six percent decrease experienced from the third to fourth quarter of 2004.
The gross margin rate was 86 percent for the twelve-months ended December 31, 2005 and 79 percent for the portion of the fourth quarter of 2004 during which the Company owned Vancocin. The increase is primarily the result of the price increases since the Company acquired the product in November 2004.
The total costs and expenses associated with operating income (loss) were $12.3 million and $8.7 million, for the fourth quarter of 2005 and 2004, respectively, and $44.3 million and $34.4 million, for the twelve-months of 2005 and 2004, respectively.
The Company's effective income tax benefit rate was 49.8 percent for the year ended December 31, 2005. The Company's income tax benefit of $37.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2005 includes $47.8 million to record deferred tax assets by reducing the valuation allowance. This was necessary as the Company believes it will utilize a portion of the net operating loss and credit carryforwards, among other things. Additionally, the Company recorded income tax expense of $10.0 million based on a combined federal and state estimated annual effective tax rate of 13.2 percent. The estimated annual effective tax rate was based on our estimated taxable income for 2005, which includes, among other things, the utilization of a portion of our available net operating loss carryforwards.
Net sales in 2005 exceeded the maximum milestone threshold of $65.0 million as set forth in the Lilly agreement in connection with the Vancocin acquisition. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $10.5 million to intangible assets in 2005, which was paid to Lilly by December 31, 2005. This also resulted in additional intangible amortization of $0.3 million in the twelve-months of 2005.
Debt Highlights
During 2005 the Company raised an additional $12.5 million of debt and reduced its debt principal by $124.0 million through $49.0 million of purchases of convertible subordinated notes and by the conversion of $75.0 million of senior convertible notes. On March 1, 2006, the Company will redeem the remaining $78.9 million principal amount of subordinated convertible notes, which will eliminate all long-term debt that was outstanding at December 31, 2005.
The increase in the twelve months of 2005 for interest expense was due to the interest, amortization of financing costs, and debt discount from the senior convertible notes, issued in January and April 2005. The decrease in the fourth quarter of 2005 results from having a lower debt balance compared to the same period of 2004. Interest expense in 2005 also includes the $1.5 million related to the beneficial conversion feature for the settlement of the make whole provision of the senior convertible notes in shares of common stock.
Cash Highlights
As of December 31, 2005, ViroPharma's assets included approximately $233.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, which represents a $189.2 million increase from December 31, 2004. This increase is primarily the net proceeds of $163.5 million from the December 2005 issuance of common stock, the result of strong operating results less $54.4 million used for repurchases of convertible subordinated notes and make-whole payments on the senior convertible notes. In addition, there was an increase in cash of $12.5 million related to the exercise of the purchase option by the holders of the senior convertible notes in April 2005.
Looking ahead to 2006
ViroPharma is announcing guidance for the year 2006 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
For the year 2006, ViroPharma expects the following:
-- Net sales are expected to be $160 to $170 million, representing growth
of 27 percent to 35 percent over 2005;
-- Operating income is expected to grow 10 percent to 25 percent over
2005;
-- SFAS 123R impact to operating income in the range of $3.5 to
$4.5 million, not reflected in operating income growth above.
Operating income growth including the impact of SFAS 123R is expected
to grow 5 percent to 20 percent over 2005.
Briefing Summary of VPHM CC
by: stalinsrevenge_mom 02/28/06 11:08 am
Msg: 92518 of 92584
28-Feb-06
11:07 VPHM ViroPharma on Conference Call (19.47 -1.83) -Update-
Will focus on execution in 2006 and building business... co expects to add one or two meaningful valuable drivers in 2006... in Q1 expect to become debt free; in Q2 hope to present a series of new data, eternal goal of mid year to initiate Phase III of Maribavir... believe Vancocin may still be underutilitzed... One analysts asks why conservative rev guidance on Vancocin: co considers guidance given for 2006 is realistic guidance; on the price front, co states they never comment on price increases before they execute them; states that people should not expect co to be as aggressive with price increases as they were in 2005; co says should know that they decided a 6.8% price increase for Vancocin... guidance confusing to analysts: analysts states if one looks at 4Q04 and compare it to the high season of 2005 one would see a 30% increase in the usage of Vancocin; analyst keeps asking if there is something else imbedded in guidance or just very conservative: co says obviously there is uncertainties with seasonally; co says have 1 or 2 of evolving epidemic to base data on; co says they give no quarterly guidance since it is difficult to predict; in 2005 delivered more than expected in 2005; when looked at 2006 looked at a number of factors; co came to guidance based on review says it is realistic, would be happy if they could do better... Analysts says when they look at prescription growth trends they see a seasonal effect; co says they see no reason why there should be no seasonality; not ready to starting giving all the metrics in the guidance
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=92518
nice summarization IMO
fyi:
VPHM: JMP Sec Keeps @ Mkt Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $26 vs $28; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , February 28, 2006 15:30 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: JMP Securities
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Mkt Outperform
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $26.00 (-7.14% from $28.00)
Analyst Comments: ViroPharma has reported 3Q05 financial results. 4Q Vancocin sales of $40.3 million beat the firm's estimate $37.1 million. 4Q EPS of $1.17 (41c excluding a one-time tax benefit) vs. firm's estimate of 31c and the Street consensus of 28c. Consequently, the firm is lowering their 2006 EPS estimate (excluding 123R) from $1.11 to $1.02, which leads them to lower their target price.
I don't know if this is good, but Cramer was all over this tonight:
http://www.thestreet.com/_tscnav/funds/madmoneywrap/10270939_4.html
Vibrant Viropharma
Cramer headed back to biotech, specifically to Viropharma (VPHM:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take). The stock "got trounced" on Tuesday, Cramer said -- it closed regular trading off 9% -- after reporting fourth-quarter earnings. While the company posted "good numbers," Cramer said, the problem it ran into was its guidance, which wasn't as good as expectations.
But that's not something to worry about, Cramer said. The company is playing the "UPOD" game -- under-promise on guidance and overdeliver on earnings, he said.
After the selloff, the company is looking like a good buy, he said. Investors who have shorted some 9% of Viropharma's shares should clear those positions and get long, he recommended. After closing at $19.35 on Tuesday, the stock is headed for $30, if not $40.
"It's time to consider buying a lot of it," he said.
The reason for Cramer's bullishness: Viropharma has a drug that could be the "next big thing," he said.
Much of Viropharma's current business is centered on the drug Vancocin, which combats certain bacterial infections. The company purchased the drug from Eli Lilly (LLY:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) for a pittance, some $120 million, Cramer noted. In contrast, the company posted nearly $126 million in sales of the drug last year alone, he said.
Those sales should grow 30% just due to expected price increases, he said. Meanwhile, demand for the drug should grow another 10%, he said. That adds up to 27% to 35% growth, Cramer said, a forecast he called "conservative."
Vancocin is the reason why Viropharma is profitable," he said. "And it's why they should keep making more and more money."
But the company is not just a "one-trick drug pony," Cramer said. The company has another drug coming online called Maribavir, which should help prevent infections related to organ transplants, he noted. That drug alone should bring in $500 million in sales, he said.
"I don't think I'm being wildly optimistic," he said.
Speaking as someone who was "Cramerized" on REDF short, all I can say is back up and get out of the way.
I'll be buying at the open.
So much for almost getting to 18.70
:P
Yeah I got in yesterday when I thought the selling was done, just under $20. And then after a brief fight it headed south again!!
Thanks Cramer, sometimes he gives a well needed shot in the arm. VPHMs numbers looked excellent, and while it sounds like their guidance was a bit muted, a drop of almost 10% was certainly not warranted. Hopefully Cramer's 'mon back is what was needed to push it into the mid-high 20s a la REDF, when Cramer pumped it. Up up and away ;D ;D
Needs to get through resistance at 21.30 and 22.30, but I think there will be solid action today. May look for a selling target near the upper bollinger band (ideally after a breach of it), as Luke observed, the BBs seem to provide good buy/sell indicators on VPHM.
I bought today at the open. What can I say, Cramer's words moved me. $-)
Is this a relied upon way of drawing trendlines?
I've noticed calven using such trendlines, and he is obviously one of the most respected traders around here.
Yep bjc,
That's about bang on for the long term trend of VPHM - has several nice confirmations of that trendline as support and then resistance Especially when you see how VPHM rode up the trendline after breaking it, confirming it as ascending resistance. Now it does make a nice target, as we can be pretty sure that IF VPHM makes it up to that trendline it may have a struggle brekaing through it. That is IF it makes it up there - it still has a way to go yet (and today's action, especially after Cramer's pump and the huge volume strikes me as a little strange - I would have expected to see it run more, unless the price was being kept down to accumulate shares for the big boys). We shall see tomorrow if that is the case and we get a move above $21.
For now, I think the short term patterns ar more important, particularly key support/resistance levels. Today demonstrated support below 20.50, as it couldn't be held below this level for long. Below this there should be support around 19.80, but for a short term trade, I don't wwant to see it heading below 20 again. First resistance I would expect to be around 21.30, which hopefully we will test tomorrow, above that, 22.25-22.30.
My first target for this move is the top of the BB and the descending trendline from Nov and Jan highs. This comes in right around 23.00 at the moment. I also see an upward channel, which if we aim for the top of, would currently be just over $24. This is also approaching the all time high of 24.36. Above this is your trendlinne target, which I would guesstimate at around 26.50-27.00 at present. It is totally attainable, but I think it is important to set intermediate targets and assess how the stock is reacting at these levels before shooting for the moon.
Here is a big chart that is hopefully not too confusing (I know its a bit busy). By the way, this is just my opinion on VPHM, as always, it is up to each person to make up their mind on how to read it ;)
I'm not saying VPHM will go up 7 points to the target range tomorrow. I'm using VPHM as kindof a safety trade. I feel like I picked up shares at a level where I can't really lose a great deal, especially since the stock sold off on great earnings for pretty much no reason (other than the conservative guidance, which kosmo kramer addressed.) I bought my shares at 20.16 before the stock fell to 19.35 yesterday. I've been staring at charts all day and just realized I saw something in the chart, and posted to see if it was in the general vacinity of being correct. Thank you very much for responding to my post..
I was in VPHM about a month ago or so. I felt the volume fading around the peak(while it should be accelerating), and for about the first time I actually timed an exit correctly(sold at 22.99).
I'm currently looking for low risk/high reward trades. I guess that's what everyone's looking for, but I feel like VPHM and AOB are outstanding trades right now. I guess a safer trade on AOB would be to wait for price to cross the 20 ema, but I feel like the support at 5 will hold based on fundamentals. Also I'm in INSM, which I bought a little bit early on the pull back also about a month ago at 2.40. I'm finally in the green..
Anyhow, I feel like we have a pretty good situation right here in VPHM. (Michael's on our side, isn't he?)
bjc and Scotsman,
Nice analysis. Applauds.
Short-term, we've got the technicals trumping the fundamentals:
1. February 27, in anticipation of good earnings, we got "Gap To Crap" #1. The low of that day was 21.10, which became key for those who bought the 22.17 open, or the brief rally to 22.25.
2. On the earnings release February 28, we got "Gap To Crap" #2. Open was 22.21. High was 22.30. The prior day's low of 21.10 also became key for those who bought that open. When 21.10 got broken with a print of 21.09, players who bought either earnings-related "Gap To Crap" opening had a problem.
Short-term, it was "sell the news," and the stock sold off. At the end of day, both "Gap To Crap" buyers had a paper loss of about 13% at the close of 19.35.
3. Yesterday, on the Cramer BOOYAH, we got a third "Gap To Crap." The open was 21.04. The print high on the day was 21.08 near the open, right at the prior day's "recognition point," (the print of (21.09)), that the earnings were being sold. The stock backed off from there.
My take on yesterday is that the "Gap To Crap" buyers of the prior two days who were sitting on a paper loss of 13% were happy to get out of their losing positons (weak-handed longs) and relieved to hand over their stock to Cramer's crowd (distribution).
Very short-term, bulls need to take the stock back above the 21.08-21.10 pivot, and hold that level. That will look much better, technically.
Next order of business would be to release the "Gap To Crap" bulls who are trapped above 22.00, (highs are 22.25-22.30) who want out (weak-handed longs), then take it higher.
A couple more Cramer BOOYAHs might be helpful. ;D
good news again:
ViroPharma Announces Elimination of Debt
Thursday March 2, 7:30 am ET
- Company Takes Important Step in Optimizing its Capital Structure -
EXTON, Pa., March 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) announced today that it has eliminated its long-term debt in its entirety by redeeming the remaining $79 million principal amount of its 6% convertible subordinated notes due March 2007. ViroPharma paid holders 100.857% of the outstanding principal amount of the notes plus interest accrued to (but excluding) March 1, 2006 as required by the indenture for the notes. By redeeming the notes early, ViroPharma will reduce its annual interest expense by four million dollars over the remaining one-year contractual life of the notes.
"With the completion of redemption of all of the remaining outstanding 2007 notes, we now have the strongest capital structure in our history," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's chief financial officer and chief operating officer. "We ended the year 2005 with $233 million in cash and cash equivalents. Today, we utilized $79.6 million of our cash to eliminate our remaining debt in its entirety. Now, with a significant and growing cash position, strong cash flows, and absolutely no debt, we are in a position of great strength enabling us to further leverage our strong capital structure to acquire additional value drivers for the company, and for future corporate growth."
Interesting blog reporting on VPHM and also a good account on what actually happened over the last couple days of trading. Kinda makes sense.
http://strades.blogspot.com/
With all the good news, I am just waiting for a reflection in the share price. Cmon VPHM!!!
VPHM updates:
Fully updated VPHM info:
http://phoenix.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cD ovL2NjYm4uMTBrd2l6YXJkLmNvbS94bWwvZmlsaW5nLnhtbD9yZXBvPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9NDAwODAxNS Zkb2M9MCZhdHRhY2g9b24=
Thanks for posting the blog link ST!
reason for price action a few days ago:
On 2-27 and 2-28 a lot of stock holders had their long confidence shaken when 2 companys, Baker Biotech Capital Ii (gp) Llc and Capital (gp) Llc, sold a total of 660,410 shares. I wouldn't exactly call them insiders since they are not part of company management. I posted the news below as it came across, but it has a negative bias slant. Companys, and individual, shareholders sell shares to close out their position, and many times that time is when momentum is greatest, like an earnings release. The greatest momentum days were 2-27 and 2-28 when the volume allowed these 2 companies to sell into that strength. Of course, this selling caused a lot of long sell stops to get hit, and the PPS (price per share) dropped dramatically while breaking support of the 10 and 50 day EMA.
link:
http://strades.blogspot.com/2006/03/who-sold-down-vphm-viropharma.html
Today news were great; I am continuing to hold my core VPHM position >:D >:D
Strange that we did not get more of a move, given this news about them eliminating all debt, and the positive notes from the CC. Perhaps most of this was already known or expected from the CC.
Still, I am sure VPHM can't be held down for too much longer and should makea push above $21 very soon.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on February 24, 2006, 02:06:35 PM
OK so my TA is better than Melf's, at least where VPHM is concerned. But who's keeping track? >:D ;D
Luke,
I'm certainly not keeping track. You didn't mean me, did you? >:D
You're mighty-y quiet lately about that superior TA of yours.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 01, 2006, 11:37:39 AM
I bought today at the open. What can I say, Cramer's words moved me. $-)
Mighty-y-y quiet since you bought that BOOYAH "Gap To Crap" opening.
Talk to me when you'd like me to remove the hex I put on you. >:D >:D >:D
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 06, 2006, 06:51:37 PM
It's like an infant. One can't expect an infant to start walking three days after she's born. One can't stand at the edge of its crib and scream at her: "Why aren't you walking you dumb little infant, you're three days old!!" :)
Luke Luke Luke!!! That's not entirely true.................If a kid who can barely stand on two feet can crave "titties and beer", I think walking at 3 days old is not out of the question ;D ;D :D
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 06, 2006, 06:51:37 PM
There's not much to update TA-wise. The call still stands for a move to the top BB short term. I plan for VPHM to be a longer-term hold as I expect $40 some time this year, so I'm giving it space to do its thing.
Luke,
Okay. I just was "acknowledging" your smart ass remark. I missed it when I was away from the board, and didn't see it until yesterday when I was reviewing my analysis.
;D >:D
Quote
The markets struggled today and decliners outnumbered advancers by 2 to 1. VPHM moved with the market which is what I'd expect with no news and no established trend at the moment
Agree.
VPHM closed back below all three sell levels yesterday, but it closed smack on the up trendline off the 18.65 low. That trendline came in yesterday at
19.641. It was penetrated intraday (low was 19.51), but it managed to close at
19.64. Yesterday's third hit validates that up trendline as support if VPHM can rally immediately.
The top of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) is right near your Upper Bollinger Band.
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 07, 2006, 03:09:34 AM
Yesterday's third hit validates that up trendline as support if VPHM can rally immediately.
I said "immediately" because that trendline came in today at
19.719 (see chart above from this morning), and since VPHM closed yesterday at 19.64, it had to "chase" the trendline right from the open, to get back inside the Symmetrical Triangle.
VPHM got to
19.75 in the first few minutes of trading, three cents back inside the pattern, but that was all it had, and it fell fairly quickly.
The bearish technicals (three sell signals) still are dominating the chart. The Symmetrical Triangle trendline failure at 19.719 is Sell #4. The up trendline (resistance) of that pattern for tomorrow, March 8 will be at 19.797.
Horizontal support for a "possible" double-bottom is 18.65-18.77.
See Chart:
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/kcscott/VPHM3.png)
One trend that stands out is every penetration or touch of the lower Bolinger Band (5 times begining Aug 14) has sent the stock back up a minimum of 15%
While it did not penetrate today, I expect to see a print somewhere below 18.84 tomorrow followed by a surge up.
Is the Trend our Friend?
I think so....... By the way, I believe this strategy also bares out in Melf's mention of the possible double bottom. Again, I'm only expecting a touch, based on history, so those of you looking to buy need to be watching when it gets there.
I'm traveling so Grabbed tomorrow so I grabbed 500 more at 19.23 - Now in for 1,000 at 20.12
Good luck to all
Quote from: KCScott on March 07, 2006, 05:47:03 PM
One trend that stands out is every penetration or touch of the lower Bolinger Band (5 times begining Aug 14) has sent the stock back up a minimum of 15%
Scott,
Good observation. Applause.
Yeah, with the 4 Sell Signals on the chart and with the technicals looking weak, VPHM needs to do something like that, like the double bottom in November.
At the February 28 earnings, MACD failed from below its signal line AND failed at the zero line. As we've discussed in other folders, that can indicate a pretty good selloff if support is getting broken on the chart.
Yesterday, MACD went to a new low for the move, so at the moment, it's confirming the chart weakness. I'll show you the MACD in the next post.
MACD
My meeing got delayed and I managed to get another 1,000 at $18.08 this AM.
So we have our penetration below the lower BB today - If we finish white rocket this will roll as it confirms the previous 5 times.
If it's down, stick a fork in me cuz I'm done
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 08, 2006, 04:21:51 AM
Yeah, with the 4 Sell Signals on the chart and with the technicals looking weak...
Scott,
The chart and technicals certainly were telegraphing the possibility of the panic selling to 17.75 on volume at the open this morning, but I didn't see news that would account for it.
As scary as that looks, it's much better for the stock than the recent action in the stock, as far as the possibility of making a bottom is concerned. If VPHM can close well today on a bullish candlestick, like you mention, we could have seen some kind of low this morning.
Bottoms don't get made when a stock "gaps to crap" a lot, then sells off the rest of day like VPHM has been doing since the day before earnings were realeased.
Good luck! I hope that your trade goes well.
Bullish Hammer at the close. It needs to start attacking those four levels of resistance.
VPHM now can be bought at a nice discount to any of the four sell levels that I posted.
I covered my short today, and I'm not interested in trading it long with all of that overhead resistance, so it goes on the back burner, and I no longer will follow it.
Good luck to those of you long.
Quote from: Terlisa on February 16, 2006, 12:58:36 AM
Quote from: Terlisa on January 12, 2006, 02:36:56 PM
There is no doubt VPHM is a growth stock.... but i think it's not time yet to buy, will wait & see for a while... goodluck ;)
Melf Elf analysis is right on the spot ;)
Melf Elf,
Applaud :D ;D :D ;D :D ;D
Melf -
First, congrats on the successful short. Profit is good. But I have some questions about it. I presume you shorted at ~$20 about three weeks ago based on the Wolfwave* formation? How come you did not cover when that formation was invalidated when the stock bounced? I believe the market weakness of the past 4 days really saved you on this play. If the market had gone the other direction VPHM could have gone to $25 instead. What was your exit strategy / mental stop loss point? It seems you took on a higher risk than reward ratio with this play.
*About Wolfwaves. I know you and Calven are fans. I have read some of the Wolfwave thread. I will be blunt and say Wolfwaves seem really hokey. Don't take it personally - it's not a slam on you or Calven. It is a slam on Wolfwaves. I mean, we could draw The Big Dipper on a lot of charts but that wouldn't make it a relevant pattern. Seem like maybe 1 out of 20 charts that hit Wolfwave #4 or 5 on a chart actually go on to hit the next target. Lots of charts get to #4 or 5 because that's just a basic channel pattern. Anyway, just one guy's take on Wolfwaves.
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 09, 2006, 03:52:45 AM
Melf -
First, congrats on the successful short.
Thank you, Scott, and thanks, Alister.
Quote
I presume you shorted at ~$20 about three weeks ago based on the Wolfwave* formation?
No, I didn't short it until last Friday, at 21.00, on the second re-test of Sell #3, which was 21.09.
The first re-test was Wednesday's " BOOYAH gap" to 21.04 - 21.08. On Friday, I had 3 sells in place on the chart, one failed re-test...the BOOYAH gap... and the technicals looked lousy, so I felt that I had plenty of evidence that favored a short of the
second re-test of resistance at Sell #3, which was 21.09.
"Sell, or sell short, at resistance."
My stop was a close above the Symmetrical Triangle, a dollar higher, so the risk:reward on the trade was better than 1: 2 if my 18.65 Symmetrical Target #1 MADE, which it did yesterday.
Quote
About Wolfwaves. I know you and Calven are fans. I have read some of the Wolfwave thread. I will be blunt and say Wolfwaves seem really hokey. Don't take it personally - it's not a slam on you or Calven. It is a slam on Wolfwaves. I mean, we could draw The Big Dipper on a lot of charts but that wouldn't make it a relevant pattern. Seem like maybe 1 out of 20 charts that hit Wolfwave #4 or 5 on a chart actually go on to hit the next target. Lots of charts get to #4 or 5 because that's just a basic channel pattern. Anyway, just one guy's take on Wolfwaves.
First of all, thanks for reminding me to run the Metastock Explorter for Wolfe Waves. I forgot. ;D
Your comments are fair enough, Scott. I wasn't familiar with WWs until December, when I read Calven's thread, so I have very little experience with them. I liked the Wolfe Wave that I found in the QQQQ (Calven was tracking the NASDAQ). The QQQQ target MADE, within a few pennies (see chart below).
What I like so much about them, is the big percentage moves to the target at #6, but as I said, I don't have enough experience with them to know how successful they are in achieving the target at #6, so I'm still feeling cautious about playing them, but am trying to follow the ones we've identified.
Regarding the VPHM Wolfe Wave, that one also was a breakdown a traditional validated channel ,at 20.25 on February 13, the day of my first post. That was a channel breakdown and a sell as far as I was concerned, regardless of whether or not it was a valid Wolfe Wave.
As you probably know, I sell when a validated trendline/channel gets broken. ALWAYS. Right or wrong.
Good luck on your trade, Scott!
Quote
Quote
I may have been one day off in my call off the lower Bollinger Band, but feeling real good about VPHM this AM - Already up .30 in pre-market and here's the news:
08:14 ET ViroPharma: Generic Vancocin introduction unlikely until 2010 - Piper Jaffray (VPHM) 18.80 :Piper Jaffray notes that a press release this week announced that two generic cos, Akorn (AKN) and Cipla, have formalized their agreement to develop a generic oral anti-infective, which they believe is generic Vancocin. As a reminder, they note that this agreement was previously announced in November 2005 when Akorn and Cipla signed a letter of intent. With at least two groups working on a generic Vancocin including Akorn/Cipla and Strides Arcolab, they believe investors should assume that a generic Vancocin will eventually come to the market. Even if a manufacturer was to start clinical trials for a generic Vancocin in CDAD imminently, they believe a generic would not enter the market until at least 2010 given the scope of clinical studies needed and the likely time frame for FDA review. Firm notes that mgmt at VPHM reiterated its 2006 Vancocin sales guidance of $160-$170 mln at a health care conference this week -- firm believes this guidance is highly conservative given that annualized 4Q05 sales are tracking closely to this guidance and a 6.8% price increase will become effective in March.
link to the full story:
http://www.forbes.com/2006/03/09/viropharma-vancocin-0309markets15_print.html
;)
Piper Jaffray maintained an "outperform" rating on ViroPharma and said generic threats to lead drug Vancocin would not likely hit the market until 2010.
Earlier this week, tiny drug developer Akorn and India-based Cipla said they had forged an agreement to develop a generic oral anti-infective agent which is thought to be generic Vancocin, according to Piper Jaffray. Akorn could not be reached for comment.
"With at least two groups working on a generic Vancocin including Akorn/Cipla and Strides Arcolab, we believe investors should assume that a generic Vancocin will eventually come to the market," the analyst wrote in a research report.
"However, even if a manufacturer was to start clinical trials for a generic Vancocin in CDAD [clostridium difficile-associated disease] imminently, we believe a generic would not enter the market until at least 2010 given the scope of clinical studies needed and the likely time frame for FDA review."
The analyst reiterated a $24 price target on ViroPharma and said sales estimates for Vancocin remain "highly conservative" for 2006.
"Management at ViroPharma reiterated its 2006 Vancocin sales guidance of $160 million to $170 million at a health care conference this week," said Wei.
"We would like to remind investors that we believe this guidance is highly conservative given that annualized fourth-quarter 2005 sales are tracking closely to this guidance and a 6.8% price increase will become effective in March."
Wei noted that ViroPharma has a history of providing "overly conservative" sales guidance for the drug.
after the outperform rating from Piper I would like to provide you some reasons for being a long term investor 8) :
If you find another company with the same statistics, please inform me:
24 slides presentation from 8th of March conference:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/jmp2/vphm/
slide quotation part 1 (focus on Vancocin):
part 2:
24 slides presentation from 8th of March conference:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/jmp2/vphm/
fyi:
;)
IMS Health Weekly Scripts - Good News!
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 03/13/06 11:38 am
Msg: 96738 of 96751
Weekly prescriptions for the week ended March 3, 2006 totaled 2,299. For the week ended February 24, 2006, prescriptions totaled 2,067. The increase is substantial. New prescriptions for the week ended March 3, 2006 totaled 1,967. New prescriptions for the week ended February 24, 2006 totaled 1,810. Again, the increase is substantial.
I wouldn't expect much action here until Friday's options expiration.
Thomas Weisel update:
http://www.tweisel.com/ShowDocument?DocId=79430
ViroPharma, Inc. (VPHM; $21.30; Cap $1.3bn; Outperform) – Strong 4Q05 reflects full impact of price increases and
continued demand; Guidance seems conservative.
• Strong 4Q05: ViroPharma reported 4Q05 total revenue of $40.5mn (Vancocin: $40.3mn), compared to our and Street
consensus of $36.7mn. Strong top-line results reflect the full impact of prior price increases during as well as strong
demand. GAAP EPS of $1.17 included a $47.8mn deferred tax benefit recorded during the quarter. Pro forma EPS of
$0.41, excluding this benefit, was significantly higher than our and the Street estimates of $0.24 and $0.27, respectively.
Pro forma EPS upside was attributable to higher revenue and lower than expected operating expenses.
• Lower than expected Expenses: Total operating expenses of $6.0mn were 41.5% lower than our estimate of $10.3mn.
MG&A expense of $2.9mn was 43% lower than our estimate of $5.1mn, while R&D expense of $3.1mn was 40% lower
than our estimate of $5.1mn. VPHM ended the year with $233.4mn in cash and cash equivalents and will pay off the
remaining $78.9mn of debt on March 1, 2006.
• Pipeline progressing: Preliminary data from the maribavir phase II trial are expected by the end of 1Q06 with a phase III
trial in stem cell transplant patients to be initiated mid 2006, followed by a phase III trial in solid organ transplant patients
in 4Q06. In addition, data from the HCV-796/peg-IFN-á combination study are expected during 2Q06, to be followed by a
phase IIb trial mid year. ViroPharma is currently conducting feasibility studies for NTX, its early stage investigational
therapy for the treatment of recurrent CDAD, and management expects to meet with the FDA to discuss a suitable clinical
path during the year. In addition, management reiterated their commitment to add one or two additional value drivers
during the year, which could result in upside to our estimates.
• 2006 guidance looks conservative: Management issued 2006 revenue guidance in the range of $160-170mn (TWP
estimate: $162.7mn; Street: $167.0mn), which we believe may prove to be conservative. Operating income is expected to
grow 10-25% over 2005 levels and as such management expects an effective tax rate of 38%. The impact of SFAS 123R
is expected to be in the range of $3.5-4.5mn, which we currently exclude from our pro forma EPS calculations. Based on
VPHM's newly issued guidance we are slightly adjusting our operating expense forecasts and tax rate assumptions. Our
revenue and fully taxed EPS estimates remain unchanged, however.
Valuation: Based on our 2006 fully taxed EPS estimate of $0.84, an estimated EPS growth rate of 25.0% and a P/E/G
ratio of 1.4 to 1.5, we believe that the current fair value range of VPHM shares is $29 to $32. Our valuation is based on
Vancocin sales alone and assumes no contribution from pipeline products. We rate VPHM shares Outperform.
Revising Estimates. Mar '05 $38.3mn, $0.18 (fully taxed); Dec '06 $162.7mn, $0.84 (fully taxed); Dec '07 $201.0mn,
$1.15 (fully taxed)
cheers
O.
I think VPHM is still working itself down to the Wolf-Wave target, what do you guys think?
I was also going to watch how this reacts to the 200ma which is approaching fast.
I must admit Melf's TA trumped mine with VPHM :-\
Boc - I don't think that Wolfwave is right because there isn't the appropriate lead-in to wave 1.
Expecting support from the 200 dma or support at ~$16 where the November lows were. Plus RSI hit oversold level today. C'mon bounce!
Michael - are you considering VPHM for the 3SOV portfolio?
time for increase the VPHM position ???
VPHM: Drops -5.31%; Vol +118%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Thursday , March 16, 2006 16:22 ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $17.15 $16.24 -5.31%
VOLUME 2,789,100 6,094,000 +118.49%
#TRADES 4,059 7,051 +73.71%
DAY-HI $17.89 $17.89 N/A
DAY-LO $16.87 $15.98 LATE-LO
AH: 16.41$
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=VPHM
Do you suppose this is a good time for buying? I bought some shares today at $17.27 thinking I was buying them low. By the time the end of session hit, I could not believe it!
I usually put a stop in, but I didn't do it today for whatever reason. Thanks to that, I am down $1,100 today from this trade. I should have sold my shares when it teetered around the $17.00 area, but I thought that it wound bounce... Just love the market! :o
I love it when the markets put the stock of an outstanding company on sale. >:D It's been done to VPHM a couple of times recently and each time it's bounced back pretty quickly. Nothing has changed with this company and in fact, their business should surely get better with time. Michael is a big fan of VPHM so I'm sure he's looking at the stock again at this discounted level. Bought a partial position today around the close and will move to a full position if this rebounds as expected. If a rebound doesn't materialize, then we have to consider that something is wrong with the company and the stock is reflecting this. I'm betting on the rebound. ;)
Went down and touched the 200ma & 200ema yesterday. Will this give support. This is a tempting level for re-entry.
uc.
Quote by bocavsa:
QuoteI think VPHM is still working itself down to the Wolf-Wave target, what do you guys think?
I think you nailed it right on the head!
If it bounces here it might be a good time to enter (or reenter in my case)
Quote from: ultra1066 on March 17, 2006, 08:48:02 AM
Quote by bocavsa:
QuoteI think VPHM is still working itself down to the Wolf-Wave target, what do you guys think?
I think you nailed it right on the head!
If it bounces here it might be a good time to enter (or reenter in my case)
Thanks Ultra, I will re-enter this morning on first signs of bounce......
OH the Humanity! :'(
this hurts :'( :'(
has anyone figured out whats happening here? there must be some news we're missing.
The good news: It's up 10% from its lows. The bad news: It's still down 16% on the day.
VPHM is making a great case agains fundamental analysis. It's not possible to know all the fundamental inputs that affect the stock price. The biggest one being the future. The stock might be trading at a buck when we find out their main drug causes mutation and death in 98% of the population. At that point, such news would probably cause the stock to bounce. Unbelievable.
Wow........
Picked up 1,000 at 12.77 - and not feeling too secure with that.
I've never seen a snowball of that magnitude - live anyway
No news, and the stock dives this hard this fast?
Lucas, I know you have Weinsteins book at your desk. This is his type of chart based on his stage analysis.
filling the gap from August?
i had a feeling Cramer mentioning this stocks was a bad sign. too bad i didnt get out then.
DJ ViroPharma Dn 18%; Concerns For A Faster Vancocin Genericmake any sense
This has taught me a lesson - ALWAYS set a stop loss.
From the Yahoo:
Maribavir results are good, this is all
by: visxlaserman
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 03/17/06 10:19 am
Msg: 98775 of 98812
a set up by the ANAList group from Canada. They said that a study would not be needed to get a generic on the market. BULLSHIT. VPHM management is now just waiting for conf. from the FDA to post a statement to the contrary AND have promised me that they will be going after Irridium (or whoever) with both barrels.
If you are margined out of your position due to this action, post it here. We will get together and sue these bastards.
I believe that this was a short attack led by that report. That is criminal. I will get the breakdown of shares owned by whom from the company today and post them.
Hang in there guys,
Laserman- bleeding for nothing!
If true, then the press announcement saying that a generic will need to go through proper testing will send this back up.
At least I hope so
No bounce. Where's the floor?
Quote from: Se7en on March 17, 2006, 10:14:00 AM
filling the gap from August?
Se7en,
hopefully not, but if that's case there still a way to go (down >:( :(:-\)
Anyway, there is a support around $13.40 but if that doesn't hold the next one is around $9.70.
Bought today @ $13.425
Am I right? I hope we will see... ;)
Hold for a short or medium term?
Still undecided :-\
here we are ;) ;)
UPDATE from VPHM:
ViroPharma Comments on Vancocin
Friday March 17, 11:47 am ET
EXTON, Pa., March 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today made the following statements about Vancocin®:
We were informed yesterday that the Office of Generic Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research ("OGD"), may have changed its approach regarding the conditions that must be met in order for a generic drug applicant to request a waiver of in vivo bioequivalence testing for Vancocin. Specifically, we were informed that a generic applicant may be able to request such a waiver provided that dissolution testing demonstrates that the test product is rapidly dissolving at certain specified conditions. This deviates from our understanding of OGD's practices which would require, for a non- absorbed GI drug, a demonstration of bioequivalence through clinical studies or a demonstration of bioequivalence using an appropriately validated in vitro methodology.
We have attempted to contact OGD, but been unable to confirm this directly with it. Nonetheless, we feel that it is important to note that, if such a change in FDA's approach has occurred:
- The change would have been made in the absence of any public
discussion and, significantly, without seeking input from FDA's own
expert Advisory Committee on this important issue;
- We believe that there are important safety and scientific issues that
the FDA must consider before making such an important change in its
requirements for bioequivalence data; and
- We strongly disagree with both the manner in which this change in
approach was developed, as well as the substance of the approach which
ignores the need to demonstrate bioequivalence for a non-systemically
absorbed drug. We will vigorously oppose at FDA this attempt to
radically restrict the data on which FDA would make vancomycin capsule
bioequivalence decisions. Vancocin combats a serious, and potentially
life threatening, disease. In this context, we believe that the
uncertainties of dissolution-only bioequivalence are simply
unacceptable.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic-associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
So what does this news mean for stock price? can we expect a rebound? :P
Just saw that new La Onda - I'm out at 14.07
That's unreal
Thinking of going short! :-\
shouldnt AKN be flying on this news??
Quote
Quote from: ncham on March 17, 2006, 12:31:37 PM
shouldnt AKN be flying on this news??
Good call - only up .07 with no volume
Something seems really strange - but with the losses I've piled up this year, I'm not gonna risk a play on either.
AKN bears watching though, if it starts a big move we'll know this OGD thing is real
moral of the story: If Cramer picks a biotech stock, run for the hills (or short it).
http://madmoney.thestreet.com/index.cfm?page=picklists&list=4
VPHM has always been one of my favorite long term stocks but today it took a real beating amid concerns that India's Cipla and Akron will seek to bring a generic Vancocin capsule to the market earlier than expected. In 2005 VPHM shot up over 500% from $2 to $20's+ but today it pluged 24% due to this news alone.
[R]ead it here (http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2006-03-17T162006Z_01_N17250184_RTRUKOC_0_US-VIROPHARMA.xml).Rather than mourning for VPHM's loss, my immediate reaction was simply that VPHM is on sale! Unfortunately, I was unable to get to my computer until around 8:30 am this morning when VPHM already rebounded from $12 to the $14 and I missed the opportunity to add positions at the low, so I had to setttle with more humble gains instead.
Here's why VPHM is on sale:
- Even with clinical trials of the generic Vancocin, the product WILL NOT enter the market until at least 2010 given the timeframe required for FDA review. (Source (http://www.forbes.com/2006/03/09/viropharma-vancocin-0309markets15.html?partner=msn))
- VPHM has positive FY 2005 4Q net income of $72.7 million and the value is expected to grow to $160+ million in 2006. (Source (http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:VPHM&Feed=AP&Date=20060228&ID=5542914))
- VPHM currently has ZERO long term debt and as a result has high cash flow. (Source (http://philadelphia.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/stories/2006/02/27/daily29.html))
Phase II data for cytomegalovirus (CMV) candidate Maribavir is to be released at the end of VPHM's FY 2006 1Q. (Source (http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/060207/1225262.html?.v=1)) - HCV-796 is still another major value driver in their clinical pipeline with huge market potential. (Source (http://www.pharmalive.com/News/index.cfm?articleid=318642&categoryid=36%2C61))
- VPHM is ranked as a top company by top analysts. (Source (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/sa?s=vphm))
The Bottom Line: VPHM is going to be shaky in the short term as it attempts to stabilize and recover from the panic sell-off. However, VPHM's long term prospects remain extremely attractive for the following reasons:
- There's no way for Vancocin's generic competitor to receive FDA approval until post-2009.
- VPHM has other value drivers that may be commercialized prior to the entrance of the generic drug.
- It has a solid financial state with high cash flow which may be potentially used to speed up the R+D efforts for it's value drivers.
My [2] cents.
update part 2:
ViroPharma Falls on Vancocin Anxiety
Friday March 17, 12:45 pm ET
ViroPharma Shares Fall Over Uncertainty of FDA Stance on Generic Vancocin
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of antibiotics company ViroPharma Inc. fell Friday on concern over the possibility that the Food and Drug Administration may allow drug makers an easier path to sell a generic version of the company's major revenue driver.
ViroPharma shares fell $3.19, or 20 percent, to $13.05 in midday trading on the Nasdaq at more than 10 times their average volume. Shares have climbed from a 52-week low of $1.67 in April to a 52-week high of $24.36 in November.
Vancocin sales accounted for $125.9 million of the company's $132.4 million in total revenue in 2005. The company bought U.S. rights for Vancocin from drug maker Eli Lilly & Co. in 2004 for $116 million plus royalties. Vancocin is an antibiotic for treating inflammation of the intestines.
ViroPharma acknowledged in a statement hearing that the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs may be changing its approach for establishing bioequivalence for Vancocin. The company has yet to confirm the change directly with the FDA, but said it will fight the change if it does materialize.
Piper Jaffray analyst Thomas Wei, who rates ViroPharma an "Outperform," considers news coming out of the FDA about the possibility of generic Vancocin mixed and contradictory.
On the one hand, the agency has stated that clinical trials would be required to show that a generic version of Vancocin was similar to the branded one, an expensive and unprofitable proposition for a generic drug maker.
On the other hand, Wei said that recent panel meetings on gastrointestinal drugs have suggested the possibility that much simpler studies could be used to show bioequivalence of highly soluble, rapidly dissolving drugs like Vancocin. Wei noted that even if simpler studies were allowed, the drug is difficult to make.
"Nonetheless, the elimination of the requirement to run large clinical studies could substantially shorten the time line to generic Vancocin approval," Wei said in a research note.
Lazard Capital analyst Joel Sendek, who rates the stock a "Buy," was more skeptical of the easier path. While the FDA indicates the possibility that bioequivalence data could be used in place of clinical trial data, Sendek told investors he views the easier route as a risky proposition given the increasing incidence and severity of GI infections.
&
yahoo board quotation:
I just spoke with the FDA
by: cjtwantstoknow 03/17/06 01:36 pm
Msg: 99492 of 99511
I just spoke with a person at the FDA regarding this matter. Apparently, the FDA's changes will ONLY affect the bio-equivalency testing and will shorten this particular aspect by 3 to 6 months. THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES. Drug manufacturers are still subjected to other testing and requirements such as chemistry, labeling, etc. The person on the phone indicated that the chemistry testing is typically a significant portion of the approval and that it continues to consume a considerable amount of time. This FDA change is factual but the impact is very minimal. The generic drug is not around the corner!
The FDA said that they received many calls regarding this topic. They are somewhat surprised because they are only making changes to streamline their own internal processes.
Oliver asked for some quick comments on VPHM, even though it is not in the portfolio, and I'll give it a shot.
VPHM - Its a viscious move guys but VPHM may have found support. Here are the charts I did and I hope they help out with a trading plan. :).
Applaud DInvestor, though I know there are some other VPHM threads elsewhere. Man talk about a shakey day though - just unbelievable. At this stage I have no idea where it will settle, but as I am looking to move my portfolio to a longger term (less stressful???) position, this seems to be an ideal buying opp. In at 13.32 today. I fully expect that after a bit of turbulence (and the intraday chart still looks weak) it should make back some of these losses. After all, as you said, they are making loads of money from Vancocin NOW, and any generics will be a long way off.
Maybe I will just not look at it for a week and see what happens???
update3:
DJ UPDATE:ViroPharma Dn;Concerns For Faster Vancocin Generic
03/17/2006
By Alex Davidson
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) shares fell as much as 30% over the past two days as Wall Street weighed the possibility that a generic competitor to ViroPharma's antibiotic to treat gastrointestinal infections could come on the market sooner than expected.
Speculation about the timing of a generic rival to ViroPharma's Vancocin oral antibiotic began Thursday as Infinium Capital analyst Bernadine Leung said in a research note that a generic competitor could be introduced one-to-two years earlier than expected.
She said the timing of the introduction of a generic changed because a Food and Drug Administration working group formed specifically around Vancocin decided in February that clinical trials for a generic may not be necessary if it is found the generic dissolves at the same rate as Vancocin.
Leung said that based on the latest comments from the FDA, a generic could come to market as soon as late 2008. Most didn't expect a generic before 2010. The analyst said she still believes that Akorn Inc. (AKN) and India's Cipla Ltd. are developing a generic version of Vancocin. "The manufacturing process for Vancocin is particularly complex and in the past, when sales were much lower, served as a sufficient barrier to generic competition. However, now that Vancocin sales have increased significantly, we believe that it will only be a short time before a competitor is able to manufacture their own version of the drug," Leung said in a Thursday research note. Officials at ViroPharma and the Food and Drug Administration were not immediately available for comment Friday, but the company issued a press release that said the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research "may have changed its approach regarding the conditions that must be met in order for a generic drug applicant to request a waiver of in vivo bioequivalence testing for Vancocin."
The company said this position deviates from its original understanding of the Office of Generic Drugs' practices that had required clinical studies for such a generic rivaling Vancocin to come to market.
"We strongly disagree with both the manner in which this change in approach was developed, as well as the substance of the approach which ignores the need to demonstrate bioequivalence for a non-systemically absorbed drug. We will vigorously oppose at FDA this attempt to radically restrict the data on which FDA would make vancomycin capsule bioequivalence decisions."
Wall Street said the FDA has now offered contradictory statements about bringing a generic of Vancocin to market, initially saying that clinical trials would be necessary and now, apparently, reversing that statement.
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Joel Sendek said Friday that he does not think the Food and Drug Administration will ultimately allow the approval of a generic Vancocin based on dissolution studies rather than clinical trials.
"While there is technically a process through which bioequivalence may substitute for clinical trial data, we view such a route to be risky and less rigorous than the clinical trial route for a drug that addresses a disease that is increasing in both incidence and severity."
Piper Jaffray analyst Thomas Wei said in a research note Friday that if a generic version of Vancocin comes onto the market before 2010, "we may have to re-evaluate our investment thesis on VioPharma."
ViroPharma shares recently traded at $13.20, down $3.04, or 18.7%, on volume of 23.3 million shares, compared with average daily volume of 1.6 million shares. Earlier Friday, the stock traded down as much as 24% to $12.40.
On Thursday, shares dropped 9%.
ViroPharma's stock has been volatile based on prospects for Vancocin and likely generic rivals. On Nov. 10, the company's shares shed 18% on concerns about generic competition; while on Sept. 15, ViroPharma's shares rose 11% after Piper Jaffray raised its price target on the company's stock.
Additionally, within a six-month time span between May 2 and Nov. 7, the company's stock rose from its 52-week low of $1.67 to a 52-week high of $24.36.
Leung does not own shares in ViroPharma, and Infinium does not have any conflicts with company. Sendek could not be reached to determine if he owns shares in ViroPharma. Lazard Capital Markets has an investment banking relationship with ViroPharma.
-By Alex Davidson, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5394;
[email protected]
I so badly want to buy some shares at this price, but with my luck, the second I do, it will plunge another $1.00 :-\
update part4:
ViroPharma Further Comments on Vancocin
PR Newswire - March 17, 2006 14:55
EXTON, Pa., March 17, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today filed a Petition for Stay of Action with the FDA regarding the requirements for waivers of in-vivo bioequivalence testing for Vancocin. ViroPharma expects to make additional filings in support of its vigorous opposition to any approach that does not require rigorous scientific methods to demonstrate a rate and extent of drug release to the site of action consistent with good medicine and science. The company believes that, given the growing number of patients with severe, and possibly life-threatening, C. difficile-associated disease, the appropriate expert advisory groups must validate the scientific and medical appropriateness of the approval standards for a generic locally acting vancomycin capsule product.
ViroPharma earlier today commented that it had been informed that the Office of Generic Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research ("OGD"), may have changed its approach regarding the conditions that must be met in order for a generic drug applicant to request a waiver of in-vivo bioequivalence testing for Vancocin. In a discussion with the Company today, OGD has confirmed this change in approach.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease, including death. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic-associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
Quote from: Loffigus on March 17, 2006, 02:52:26 PM
I so badly want to buy some shares at this price, but with my luck, the second I do, it will plunge another $1.00 :-\
hi,
patience ...............looks very volitile still. looks like there will be plenty of good entry points down the track .
maxi
Yea, I am not going to try and catch this falling knife- - this could just be day 1 of it's drop.
this stock is not safe for the time being.
This has been a great lesson in why to use Stops. I bought yesterday at 17.27 and my stop triggered at 16.17
And I thought I lost big! It's amazing how much easier stocks will fall, than they rise. Lesson Learned! ;D
VPHM is indeed on "fire" today. It has fallen below $12! Very intersting development... I'lll just keep watch on the sidelines...
ViroPharma Falls on Vancocin Anxiety
Friday March 17, 12:45 pm ET
ViroPharma Shares Fall Over Uncertainty of FDA Stance on Generic Vancocin
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of antibiotics company ViroPharma Inc. fell Friday on concern over the possibility that the Food and Drug Administration may allow drug makers an easier path to sell a generic version of the company's major revenue driver.
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ViroPharma shares fell $3.19, or 20 percent, to $13.05 in midday trading on the Nasdaq at more than 10 times their average volume. Shares have climbed from a 52-week low of $1.67 in April to a 52-week high of $24.36 in November.
Vancocin sales accounted for $125.9 million of the company's $132.4 million in total revenue in 2005. The company bought U.S. rights for Vancocin from drug maker Eli Lilly & Co. in 2004 for $116 million plus royalties. Vancocin is an antibiotic for treating inflammation of the intestines.
ViroPharma acknowledged in a statement hearing that the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs may be changing its approach for establishing bioequivalence for Vancocin. The company has yet to confirm the change directly with the FDA, but said it will fight the change if it does materialize.
Piper Jaffray analyst Thomas Wei, who rates ViroPharma an "Outperform," considers news coming out of the FDA about the possibility of generic Vancocin mixed and contradictory.
On the one hand, the agency has stated that clinical trials would be required to show that a generic version of Vancocin was similar to the branded one, an expensive and unprofitable proposition for a generic drug maker.
On the other hand, Wei said that recent panel meetings on gastrointestinal drugs have suggested the possibility that much simpler studies could be used to show bioequivalence of highly soluble, rapidly dissolving drugs like Vancocin. Wei noted that even if simpler studies were allowed, the drug is difficult to make.
"Nonetheless, the elimination of the requirement to run large clinical studies could substantially shorten the time line to generic Vancocin approval," Wei said in a research note.
Lazard Capital analyst Joel Sendek, who rates the stock a "Buy," was more skeptical of the easier path. While the FDA indicates the possibility that bioequivalence data could be used in place of clinical trial data, Sendek told investors he views the easier route as a risky proposition given the increasing incidence and severity of GI infections.
Quote from: Jimbo on March 17, 2006, 10:47:48 AM
Quote from: Se7en on March 17, 2006, 10:14:00 AM
filling the gap from August?
Se7en,
hopefully not, but if that's case there still a way to go (down >:( :(:-\)
Anyway, there is a support around $13.40 but if that doesn't hold the next one is around $9.70.
Wow............ >:( :( :-[
Gap already filled.
Quote from: Loffigus on March 17, 2006, 03:15:11 PM
This has been a great lesson in why to use Stops. I bought yesterday at 17.27 and my stop triggered at 16.17
And I thought I lost big! It's amazing how much easier stocks will fall, than they rise. Lesson Learned! ;D
I totally agree with you, Loffigus
they intend to fall much quicker then rise, unfortunately.
What carnage! I sold in the low 13's and immediately went short. I didn't know if going short was a smart move but I wanted to make something back and it didn't look like that was going to happen by being long. Covered at 10.99. Happy to make back a chunk of my loss so quickly. Next time, stops! Updated chart of VPHM below.
As I type this I see I should have held my short a little longer...
update part 5:
68M shares outstanding
49M shares traded!!!!!!!!!!
Potential Generic Competition Sends ViroPharma Shares Lower - Touching Fresh Bell-to-Bell Bottom
Friday , March 17, 2006 15:44 ET
Boston, Mar 17, 2006 (MidnightTrader via COMTEX) -- VPHM is recently touching a fresh bell-to-bell bottom as worries spread over the increased potential for generic competition to the company's Vancocin instestine inflammation treatment.
VPHM earlier today commented that it had been informed that the Office of Generic Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluationand Research (OGD), may have changed its approach regarding the conditions that must be met in ordThe company tried to soothe some of the anxiety by issuing a statement late this afternoon.
VPHM said it filed a Petition for Stay of Action with the FDA regarding the requirements for waivers of in-vivo bioequivalence testing for Vancocin. The company "expects to make additional filings in support of its vigorous opposition to any approach that does not require rigorous scientific methods to demonstrate a rate and extent of drug release to the site of action consistent with good medicine and science. The company believes that, given the growing number of patients with severe, and possibly life-threatening, C. difficile-associated disease, the appropriate expert advisory groups must validate the scientific and medical appropriateness of the approval standards for a generic locally acting vancomycin capsule product," it said.
VPHM earlier today commented that it had been informed that the Office of Generic Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluation er for a generic drug applicant to request a waiver of in-vivo bioequivalence testing for Vancocin. In a discussion with the company today, OGD has confirmed this change in approach.
short info:
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=vphm&submit=Enter
Monday will be interesting......
Quote from: [D] Investor on March 17, 2006, 03:16:29 PM
VPHM is indeed on "fire" today. It has fallen below $12!
On fire indeed! Like victims of the Salem Witch Trials or the Spanish Inquisition.
ugh. I feel sick. I guess my 13.32 buy wasn't so hot after all. am in the soup almost 20% on that alone!!!
Well, looks like I'm gonna sit on this one for a bit then. Am sure VPHM must correct in the next month or so to a fair value. The news was bad, but not this bad! Doesn't affect their current or forward revs for at least another few years, nor their pipeline. Don't see how it could go completely down the toilet!!
Just ridiculous! But glad to see you made a bit on your short Lucas, I wonder if Melf Elf was still short ???
Quote from: Michael on February 15, 2006, 02:36:20 PM
Hmmmm.... my last message was too cheap so let me elaborate a bit.
VPHM's forward PE is 17.26.
They will be debt free in the coming months
They are growing earnings at a rate that leaves big pharma's in the dust.
They have a quite interesting pipeline with one drug that has just been given fast track status
and you are selling ???
VPHM only has one problem. It has increased too fast over too short a time.
Show me any other pharmaceutical company that has this kind of track record, pipeline, PE etc. and I will be on the buying side. (I will however also still buy more VPHM - these kind of opportunites don't show up too often!)
Mike
Michael,
I know you was going to add more shares at $18-$19 so after today's sell off VPHM should be even more attractive, right?
Since you like the company a lot I really would like to see your take when everyone else hates it.
Thanks
We had a picture perfect 61.8% fib bounce today at $10.35. Too early to tell if that is the bottom but it can't be a coincidence that buying was so strong at that level. Last AH price is $11.30. :)
Melf covered in the mid-18's after going short at $21. Would have been quite the payday for him if he'd held on to his short.
I think we'll see 13.32 again soon unless it collapses a lot further on Monday. Remember SUF dropped from 19.50 to under 7.00 in just two days, then got a 3-day bounce to take it back over 11.00. Maybe VPHM follows a similar pattern. I'll have VPHM on screen all next week. I got back about 40% of my loss today with my short. I want to get back a piece of that remaining 60% if we see a strong bounce.
Posted the chart on another VPHM thread but I'll post it here also. We had a nice 61.8 fib bounce today. Will it hold? Time will tell. ;)
Worlds collided today.
We had several negative forces that started a total panic.
1) month long down-trend
2) bad-news (speculation)
3) friday-jitters
4) huge recent run up (generally speaking for a stock)
Those 4 factors caused a severe over-reaction I think, I would not be a bit surprised if this stock rebounds to the $15 level in the short term.
I am not sure what fair market value is on this stock, but it does not seem to me that just because generic drugs will be available sooner than expected, that this stock should be dumped in the toilett.
I have been reading recent news, and it sounds like their revenues are improving by leaps and bounds. I think this huge sell off is going to spark a rally, once people do some research over the weekend.
I could be wrong, cause geez, the power of this downward movement is staggering, but emotion can sometimes overpower common sense.
Quote from: Jimbo on March 17, 2006, 05:08:07 PM
Michael,
I know you was going to add more shares at $18-$19 so after today's sell off VPHM should be even more attractive, right?
Since you like the company a lot I really would like to see your take when everyone else hates it.
Thanks
I second that proposal! Michael - are you still holding all your shares? Did you add to your position today or will you look to add next week? Thanks.
Quote from: KCScott on March 17, 2006, 12:38:21 PM
Quote
Quote from: ncham on March 17, 2006, 12:31:37 PM
shouldnt AKN be flying on this news??
Good call - only up .07 with no volume
Something seems really strange - but with the losses I've piled up this year, I'm not gonna risk a play on either.
AKN bears watching though, if it starts a big move we'll know this OGD thing is real
AKN popped in the last half hour of trading with good volume. Looks like it could be a nice momo play next week.
AKN 15-min chart:
Quote from: basonista on March 17, 2006, 05:16:55 PM
We had a picture perfect 61.8% fib bounce today at $10.35. Too early to tell if that is the bottom but it can't be a coincidence that buying was so strong at that level. Last AH price is $11.30. :)
$10 zone is also the 200ema on weekly chart, and was also a pause point for the previous lift off back in August, so no surprise that it found a place to slow down there. Hopefully it will respect that triple support area. I won't be considering playing unless I see support actually being put in place consistantly rather than just following todays horrendous action (well horrendous for longs, good day for shorts). Good fundamental stocks can get trashed just the same as speculative no earnings type stocks.
Quote from: Loffigus on March 17, 2006, 03:15:11 PM
This has been a great lesson in why to use Stops. I bought yesterday at 17.27 and my stop triggered at 16.17
And I thought I lost big! It's amazing how much easier stocks will fall, than they rise. Lesson Learned! ;D
Smart move. Trading with plan, no emotion, no second quessing.
No doubt the company is good, but market changes so quickly and you have to adapt changing world.
When such thing happens, exit first, then do further analysis.
One thing I am certain that if a stock is in falling knife, its recovery will be very slow.
There are plenty of opportunities to take positions later.
Patient will win.
I did not own it lately.
I bought VPHM at Friday's market close and its up 3% afterhours! ;D
HERE'S AN UPDATE OF MY TAKE ON VPHM...So the VPHM's unexpected bearish shocker last Friday left many talking and Cramer (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10274311_4.html%20) sticking a post-it note with VPHM on his forehead on his "Mad Money" TV show to admit his earlier bullish call was wrong.
Recap on Friday's news:
- Tiny drug firm Akorn and India-based Cipla announced development of a generic oral anti-infective agent speculated to be generic Vancocin.
- The FDA indicated that it is possible for a company to circumvent the bioequivalence study normally required for a generic drug, potentially speeding up a generic drug's time to market.
- In VPHM's case, Akorn and Cipla's generic Vancocin might enter U.S. markets now before the prior 2010 estimate if placed on "fast track."
- Vancocin sales accounted for $125.9 million of the company's $132.4 million in total revenue in 2005.
ource (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060317/viropharma_mover.html?.v=2)The Bottom Line: News is speculative so freefall on Friday was based mainly on speculation alone. We still don't know when the generic Vancocin can become a competitor and how much faster the "fast track" process will take. VPHM's FDA petition (http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/060317/1261456.html?.v=2) is still under review. What we know though is that Vancocin sells are continually strong and will result in higher FY 2006 profits (http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:VPHM&Feed=AP&Date=20060228&ID=5542914) for VPHM.
My Take: If you haven't noticed yet, I'm clearly bullish and long on VPHM.
Forbes.com also has an article about how Friday's action has created a good entry point and maintaining a price target of $28.
Quote"While there is technically a process through which bioequivalence may substitute for clinical trial data, we view such a route to be risky and less rigorous than the clinical trial route for a drug that addresses a disease that is increasing in both incidence and severity," the analyst wrote in a client note. "We do not believe that the FDA will allow a developer of a generic Vancocin to substitute dissolution studies for a clinical trial."
[R]ead it here (http://www.forbes.com/2006/03/17/viropharma-vancocin-0317markets10.html?partner=yahootix).But regardless, VPHM will most likely undergo turbulence as long as the news remain speculative. I look forward to finding out whether the generic is really a substitute for Vancocin, the FDA will approve the generic to be placed on fast track, and the new estimate of when the generic drug might enter U.S. markets if it is granted fast track.
I'm not going to say this isn't going to bounce on Monday... it might but I'm monitoring this stock for entry. I think there is a chance that it does a suf-style move and tanks another 20-30% monday. There will probably be downgrades, and I'm looking for reentry on tuesday/wednesday at around 7... Probably won't get it, but if I do I will be all over it.
g
I hope it bounces, but... that analyst comment you're posting has a financial relationship with VPHM, so of course he is going to say that. Also, when that comment originally came out the price was closer to $14, and VPHM said toward the end of the day that the FDA had indeed changed their testing requirements. Not good. In hindsight, it's probably not that great of an idea to own a biotech that had only one drug providing income. Hopefully their other drugs in the pipeline come through before AKN starts selling the generic.
another VPHM analysis; just FYI:
(I am torn between accumulating more or selling all my VPHM; will monitor VPHMs price action very closely :P )
Saturday, March 18, 2006
VPHM (Viropharma) Faces Generic Competition
On Friday March 17, 2006 Cramer wore a post-it note with ViroPharma's ticker on his forehead, admitting that his earlier bullish call was wrong. Cramer uses an approach to stocks that uses logic or rationalization to pick and stick with a stock. The way stocks behave is not always logical or rational from everyone's point-of-view, but technical analysis allows a more object veiw. I don't think Cramer understands technical analysis at all.
Friday VPHM (Viropharma) opened at $16.13 and dropped 36% to hit $10.35 as the LOD (low of the day). If you follow tradingmarkets.com's stock lists then you would have seen VPHM was rated at a 7 Friday March 17, 8:13 am ET. (http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060317/14061.html)
Looks like it didn't outperform the market as a rating of 7 would indicate. Not sure what criteria they use to come up with those ratings.
Here's what happened. A few months back there was a rumor that an Indian company was going to try to produce a drug very much like VPHM's Vancocin drug, which is its only source of revenue currently. At that time the stock dropped, but then recovered because of the number of years it would take and FDA barriers the Indian company would have to overcome to get that drug to market. That's all changed according to analyst Joel Sendek who said, "The U.S. Food and Drug Administration indicated that it is possible for a company to circumvent the bioequivalence study normally required for a generic drug. This would potentially speed up a generic drug's time to market." Therest of the article:
Market Scan
ViroPharma's Generic Worries Create Attractive Entry Point
Peter Kang, 03.17.06, 1:10 PM ET
Lazard Capital Markets maintained a "buy" rating on ViroPharma as shares of the drugmaker were hit hard on worries of generic competition for its anti-infective agent Vancocin.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration indicated that it is possible for a company to circumvent the bioequivalence study normally required for a generic drug, according to analyst Joel Sendek. This would potentially speed up a generic drug's time to market.
ViroPharma shares plunged 32% in Friday's trading session on volume more than 30 times the stock's three-month daily average. The decline comes on the heels of an 8.5% drop yesterday. Sendek is skeptical the FDA would grant such a waiver for a generic version of Vancocin. "While there is technically a process through which bioequivalence may substitute for clinical trial data, we view such a route to be risky and less rigorous than the clinical trial route for a drug that addresses a disease that is increasing in both incidence and severity," the analyst wrote in a client note. "We do not believe that the FDA will allow a developer of a generic Vancocin to substitute dissolution studies for a clinical trial."
"However, we recognize that based on the bioequivalence guidance provided to us by the FDA, a generic Vancocin could enter the market earlier than our previous estimate of 2010."
As shares continued to fall Friday, ViroPharma issued a statement in opposition of a potential waiver. "We will vigorously oppose [this] attempt to radically restrict the data on which the FDA would make vancomycin capsule bioequivalence decisions," the company said.
Sendek reiterated a $28 price target on the stock. "Recent price action creates an attractive entry point," he noted.
Recently, tiny drug firm Akorn and India-based Cipla said they reached an agreement to develop a generic oral anti-infective agent that analysts speculate could be generic Vancocin. Akorn could not be reached for comment.
The company that wants to produce the drug is Cipla (based in India), and they have contracted Akorn to help them develop the drug.
VPHM did file a Petition for Stay of Action with the FDA, did recently stock up on cash, paid off all their debt, and are producing more Vancocin which will bring them more money. This cash will allow VPHM to finish development on their CMV and Hepatitis C drugs, but it could be next year before they get FDA approval of at least on of those drugs.
Until VPHM gets drug approval I would just leave this one alone. The stock has been hurt so badly with this drop in price, I'm not sure its worth the risk right now to even try trading VPHM.
link: http://strades.blogspot.com/
I wonder where is Michael at... Michael, are you still holding VPHM or you bail out & took ur profits?
VPHM is in a very bearish situation right now..
1) Price broke the MA50 in the downside .. <--- if i'm in @ VPHM i'll be thinking an EXIT strategy at that level.
2) Now price broke the MA200 & EMA200 in the downside (BIG TIME)
3) Bears are in control of this stock since price broke the MA50...it's gonna go down more I think ;)
4) Never trade with the weaker, always trade with the stronger.. in this case bears prevails. ;)
Good point ncham.
I'll keep close watch at market open on Monday. A generally bullish market day will help VPHM as well. Good luck all!
Quote from: Jimbo on March 17, 2006, 05:08:07 PM
Quote from: Michael on February 15, 2006, 02:36:20 PM
Hmmmm.... my last message was too cheap so let me elaborate a bit.
VPHM's forward PE is 17.26.
They will be debt free in the coming months
They are growing earnings at a rate that leaves big pharma's in the dust.
They have a quite interesting pipeline with one drug that has just been given fast track status
and you are selling ???
VPHM only has one problem. It has increased too fast over too short a time.
Show me any other pharmaceutical company that has this kind of track record, pipeline, PE etc. and I will be on the buying side. (I will however also still buy more VPHM - these kind of opportunites don't show up too often!)
Mike
Michael,
I know you was going to add more shares at $18-$19 so after today's sell off VPHM should be even more attractive, right?
Since you like the company a lot I really would like to see your take when everyone else hates it.
Thanks
One thing I believe, I think Michael hates this stock now @ this point of time ;)
As you can see, on the weekly chart of VPHM... ADX Rallied above (VPHM got OVERHEATED) it's a sign that you have to take your profits & get back in later @ better price ;)
Same thing as DIET, the ADX rallied & stays above for quite awhile. but be aware there is gonna be a profit taking.... After they released their earnings DIET dropped like a rock, people bought at 7.50 & above they got toasted of the overheating DIET ;)
Quote from: Terlisa on March 19, 2006, 08:32:20 PM
One thing I believe, I think Michael hates this stock now @ this point of time ;)
Probably the case! At least Michael's still in the black on the shares he bought at $4.50, so he probably doesn't hate the stock as much as all the people who bought in the high teens or low 20's.
VPHM is a case study for those who say TA trumps FA. Stict adherance to TA gets you out of this stock somewhere north of $16. FA has you buying VPHM all the way down.
At least VPHM is just hovering above the EMA200 on the weekly chart, if it's breaks that, it will go down below 6 and i think that's not gonna happen...i'll be watching VPHM from here & I'll take position in the LONG side if it price stays above EMA200
** MACD divergence fast line still below of slow line ---BEARISH
** ADX still on top of both lines -- VPHM still needs to cool off
** Minus DI(13) turning up -- BEARS IN CONTROL, no buying for me
** Plus DI(13) turning below - BULLS starts dissipating last november even though the price is going up ADX is turning down, that's the other sign for traders to take profits out of the table. ;) :D ;D
VPHM: US Bancorp Cuts to Mkt Perform from Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $13 vs $24; Analyst Notes
Monday , March 20, 2006 07:19 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Mkt Perform (from Outperform)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $13.00 (-45.83% from $24.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm lowered their recommendation citing expectations that Vancocin generics may happen sooner than expected and the consequent impact on cash flows.
&
VPHM: SG Cowen Cuts to Underperform from Outperform; Analyst Notes
Monday , March 20, 2006 08:01 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: SG Cowen & Co.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Underperform (from Outperform)
Analyst Comments: The firm based their downgrade on the FDA's policy change regarding Vancocin generics resulting in potential for increased competition.
up in premarket
:-\
07:43 VPHM ViroPharma: Thomas Weisel comments on generic concerns (10.85 )
Thomas Weisel notes that late last week, VPHM shares dropped 38.9% due to concerns of earlier than expected generic competition for Vancocin. They note that on Friday, VPHM stated that the Office of Generic Drugs confirmed a change in requirements for a waiver of in vivo bioequivalence testing for Vancocin. Firm says such a waiver would allow a generic manufacturer to possibly get a generic Vancocin approved without conducting full clinical trials. If a generic manufacturer only needed to conduct simple dissolution studies, they believe the path to a generic Vancocin approval is shortened, but still substantial. Assuming the transfer of manufacturing know-how, dissolution testing, stability testing and FDA review, they believe 2009 would be the earliest that a generic Vancocin could be approved. Given the increased uncertainty regarding the timing of a generic Vancocin approval, they believe VPHM should trade at a discount to its peers. They believe that the current discounts are unjustified, however, as the price seems to account for the definite approval of a generic Vancocin in the relative near-term, which they do not believe to be the case.
just FYI:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/analystsactions/10274495_2.html
1)
Viropharma downgraded at Cowen: VPHM was downgraded to Underperform, SG Cowen said. Company will not win Vancocin case, and the stock could further fall down to $5-$6 a share.
2)
Viropharma downgraded at Piper: Piper said it is downgrading VPHM to a Market Perform rating due to concerns over generics.
How can an analyst say that this stock could fall to $5-$6 when the company has $4/share in cash and over $5/share in assets?!?!?!?! Very strange imo
I have added more! ;D
why:
personally I don´t think that any potential generic will enter the market before end of 2008 or beginning 2009!
VPHM has no debt, and other drugs in the pipeline...
cheers
O.
Quote from: la-onda on March 20, 2006, 09:54:09 AM
Viropharma downgraded at Cowen: VPHM was downgraded to Underperform, SG Cowen said. Company will not win Vancocin case, and the stock could further fall down to $5-$6 a share.
...
How can an analyst say that this stock could fall to $5-$6 when the company has $4/share in cash and over $5/share in assets?!?!?!?!
Sounds like a grudge-downgrade. Cowen is "smiting" VPHM. Warranted or not, I think that downgrade will help push the stock below $10.
Would really love to get Michael's take on this. :-\
ugh. no bottom in sight.
update:
VPHM10.03, -0.82, -7.6% continued its downward slide, declining 5% to $10.36. Cowen & Co. analysts downgraded the stock to underperform, citing a recent change in FDA policy that could speed up the approval process for generic formulations of the company's lead drug, Vancocin. Cowen now sees generic versions of Vancocin being approved by the FDA as soon as mid-2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B904B7670%2DAEF5%2D476B%2D9A48%2D0A6A834BEBB1%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo&print=true&dist=printTop
This stock is mind boggling! It went below $10 for awhile today but seems like it's bearish and testing $10 at this moment.
Anyway, I'm out this morning with VPHM at $10.90 for a 1% gain. VPHM did not rebound with the momentum as I had anticipated at market open and met strong resistance at the 20 and 50 DMAs.
The downgrade by Piper Jaffray today did not help VPHM recover either.
Instead, I took a risky move and shorted VPHM at $10.50 (Yes I shorted and you may call me a hypocrite >:D) and bought back at $10.00 for a +4.8% return. Since VPHM broke below $10, it seems likely that VPHM will fall even further, but I'll be conservative and stay away from VPHM for awhile until the action simmers down and a clear trend is established. I'm still confident that VPHM will recover sometime in the near future though...
Good luck to all who are both long and short on VPHM! :-\
http://www.zacks.com/blog/post_info.html?g=6#716
ViroPharma – One Wild Ride!
Posted Mon Mar 20, 09:15 am ET
by Jason Napodano, CFA
ViroPharma (VPHM) shares define the term volatile so far in 2006. Back in January we
downgraded the name from HOLD to SELL based on fears of generic competition.
We also believe that the Street under-estimated the competition from novel
drugs in mid-to-late stage development. Insider selling has been suspiciously
high over the past few months – yet another reason we advised clients to get out of the stock in January at $21. We reiterated that SELL call in early March after the company reported fourth quarter and full-year 2005 financial results. Again, we made the call at $21.
Here we are just over two weeks after we reiterated our SELL rating and the stock is below $11 – down 45%! In the blink of an eye the generic risk which we've been speaking about for the past three months has taken center stage. In
a very surprise move on Friday, the FDA announced it would entertain the idea of streamlining the filing process for generic Vancocin – ViroPharma's one and only approved product. The shares tumbled 33% on the news.
In our previous sell report we noted that generic Vancocin would be both complex and expensive to make for a generic company. That is still the case. Nevertheless, the risk existed that a generic would be on the market by 2010. Now it seems as though that risk has moved forward by a year. Yet, this is all still highly speculative and ViroPharma will no doubt petition the FDA on the contrary. So, call us crazy, but we think the shares are attractive now at $11.
We have not made any changes to our 2006-2009 financial model. This is a company that will generate significant cash flow over the next several years. Phase II data on CMV candidate Maribavir are expected any day now. Management's plan to acquire one or two drug candidates this year should help diversify the company for the long-term.
In our previous report we noted that we were sellers at $21 and buyers at $12. We still see fair-value in the mid-to-upper teens. Buckle up ViroPharmaians, this is when the ride starts to get interesting!
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.d6bcae9d7993afd43ddd3c849047200165862e66bd5d9f2e6c7c9bd1454a7079
VPHM: JMP Sec Keeps @ Mkt Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $15 vs $26; Analyst Notes
Monday , March 20, 2006 10:35 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: JMP Securities
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Mkt Outperform
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $15.00 (-42.31% from $26.00)
Analyst Comments: VPHM has confirmed investor concerns that the Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) at the FDA had changed its stance on the data required for approval of generic Vancocin. Previous guidelines had indicated that a generic version of Vancocin would need to demonstrate equivalence to the original drug in clinic trials. The firm points out that the OGD's new stance is that dissolution tests are sufficient measures of equivalence for approval. At a time when the government and the media are highlighting the need for increased vigilance in treating serious infections, they believe that OGD may have underestimated the rigor needed to guarantee a truly equivalent generic version of Vancocin. While they do not expect an immediate resolution, they doubt that the new OGD stance will stick. If the OGD reverts to its original guidance, they believe Vancocin will enjoy exclusivity until at least 2010.
It's interesting to note that if the generic drug comes out 2009-2010 (no FDA fast track) VPHM is a $20+ stock. And when it comes out a year earlier in mid-2008, it becomes a $10 or less stock... more than 50% price reduction! Simply astounding... ???
I've tried 4 daytrades on VPHM this morning -- 2 long and 2 short. They netted out to a loss of $12 LOL. Substantiates my theory that daytrading is for idiots :o
ViroPharma's Generic Discount
http://www.fool.com/news/mft/2006/mft06032004.htm
By Rich Duprey (TMF Cop)
03/20/2006
Did you feel that downdraft? Whoosh! That gale force wind was created by tiny biotech ViroPharma(Nasdaq: VPHM) falling off the cliff and plummeting 33% on news that generics may be allowed to enter its antibiotic drug market sooner than expected.
ViroPharma's sole source of revenues is the drug Vancocin, which it bought the rights to in 2004 from Eli Lilly(NYSE: LLY) for $120 million. Not a bad deal, really, when you consider that sales in 2005 for ViroPharma were $126 million. Although it was still required to pay some royalties to Lilly, they were relatively negligible.
There's big demand for Vancocin, an antibiotic which treats enterocolitis (an infection and inflammation of the intestine that usually develops in a hospital setting). Sales are expected to continue their expansion -- they've grown at a compounded rate of 65% for the past three years -- since the bacterium already kills thousands of people each year in the U.S., and it's apparently growing more common and deadly. A supervirulent strain -- which generates 20 times more toxins that damage the colon than the typical strain -- has been reported in at least 14 states and several countries.
The fear of this widely spreading bacterium has allowed ViroPharma to raise prices of Vancocin by 80% since it acquired the rights to it. While $800 for the complete regimen compares favorably to other infection antibiotics that cost as much as $2000, it's expected that ViroPharma could increase the cost by another 65% and still be considered reasonable. That has been fueling the growth in ViroPharma's stock, which has risen by more than 500% over the past year.
Yet it's also possible that the price increases played a role in the FDA's decision to allow generics to move into the market ahead of schedule. The FDA recently informed ViroPharms that the regulatory agency had revised its policy of requiring clinical trials showing the efficacy of possible generic alternatives; in the future it will merely require companies to show that lab tests of generics produce the same rate of dissolving as Vancocin does. Vancocin is the only FDA-approved oral drug of vancomycin that is delivered intravenously and specifically targets the bacterium that causes the infection.
Because of the cost factor, some doctors prescribe off-label treatments using metronidazole, which is less than one-tenth the cost of Vancocin. Yet the off-labels are not nearly as effective, nor can they treat the more severe cases of infection.
While it's difficult to imagine the FDA actually going through with this lesser standard of proof -- especially considering the heat that it's taking over its handling of Merck's (NYSE: MRK) Vioxx and Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE) Celebrex -- investors were concerned enough about the possible early entry of generics to whack $5 off ViroPharma's share price, which had followed a 9% decline the day before. The stock is more than 55% off its 52-week high, which piques my interest here.
The company has $233 million in cash, only $79 million in debt, and is trading at a little over two times its book value per share. It has a trailing P/E of only 5 and a forward P/E of just 8, and the company was finally able to become profitable in 2005, on the strength of Vancocin. Generics, if they're ever even approved, will not appear on the market for at least two years, and ViroPharma has announced its intention to vigorously defend its patents. Considering the hypervirulency of the new bacteria, it seems unlikely that the FDA would follow through.
Moreover, while Vancocin is the biotech's sole product right now, it has two other drugs in its pipeline: Maribavir, which it acquired from GlaxoSmithKline(NYSE: GSK) in 2003, is used to treat cytomegalovirus, a common virus in the herpes family that is found worldwide; and HCV-796, with which it entered into a partnership with Wyeth(NYSE: WYE) in 1999 to target hepatitis C. Considering the amount of cash it has on hand from Vancocin, it could also always buy into another cash-producing drug -- should generics prove formidable.
The sell-off is definitely overwrought here, and investors would do well to look a little closer at this promising biotech.
GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly, and Merck are Motley Fool Income Investor selections. Pfizer is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection.
Quote from: Jimbo on March 17, 2006, 10:47:48 AM
Se7en,
hopefully not, but if that's case there still a way to go (down >:( :(:-\)
Anyway, there is a support around $13.40 but if that doesn't hold the next one is around $9.70.
I managed to buy some shares at $9.75 as I believe there is a support around $9.76 and we might see a bounce from that level. But definitely will be tight on my stop - sell if close bellow $9.76 without regrets >:D
Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 19, 2006, 10:46:42 PM
Quote from: Terlisa on March 19, 2006, 08:32:20 PM
One thing I believe, I think Michael hates this stock now @ this point of time ;)
Probably the case! At least Michael's still in the black on the shares he bought at $4.50, so he probably doesn't hate the stock as much as all the people who bought in the high teens or low 20's.
VPHM is a case study for those who say TA trumps FA. Stict adherance to TA gets you out of this stock somewhere north of $16. FA has you buying VPHM all the way down.
We still waiting for Michael.......................................... :P :P :P
updated intraday chart, looking more positive now
anal-ists up to their old tricks I see.
now this is interesting,I think I'll hold --
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=VPHM&range=7&mgp=0&i=2&hdate=&x=22&y=8
Hi Terlisa and Oliver
Well it is difficult to hate a stock that has been so generous to you but I have to admit that I hate myself for not having a stop loss on VPHM. I was obviously overconfident in the fundamentals of this stock.
Lesson learned and I am now busy putting stop loss on all the stocks in the 3SOV portfolio.
The FDA decision to allow approval of generic competition without requiring clinical trials is a fundamental change in the outlook for the company and a sharp drop in the stock price is justified.
We will now have to find a new basis to valuate the company and for that we need answers to the following questions:
- How likely is it that a generic drug will be developed?
- When will it be introduced to the US market?
- What market share will VPHM have after the introduction of a generic version?
Vancocin lost its patent protection long time ago and it is first recently that a small pharmaceutical company; Akorn together with an Indian drug company Cipla decided to embark on the development of a generic version. The main reason is that it is very difficult to produce a generic version of Vancocin. I think the best proof of that is if you look at the stock price of AKN and VPHM. AKN has gained approximately $20 million in market value after the FDA decision and VPHM has lost approximately $560 million. And please remember here that the Akorn/Cipla generic version has the whole world as potential market and not only US.
We all know the market is right but here is the question: is it right when it cut $560 million of VPHM's market cap or is it right when it only add $20 million to Akorn's?
It seems like most analyst expect that approval of a generic version of Vancocin will happen at earliest in the beginning of 2008 or 2 years from now. From the approval to actually get the drug on the market takes time and even after that history shows that the owner of the original drug will still have a significant market share. I am not saying that generic competition is not going to hurt VPHM. It certainly will both in form of market share and margins. But VPHM will continue selling the drug with a profit for years to come.
So is VPHM a buy today? Well I think it is. We still have at least 2 to 3 years with approximately $100 million free cash flow per year. The market cap today is around 700 million and the book value per share is 4.77.
I have deliberately not mentioned VPHM's pipeline. At this point in time I don't think it has any influence on the stock price. Obviously that will change in the future.
I think the reaction to the FDA decision is way overdone. I am buying VPHM today. I do not expect it to go back to 20 in the near future but I could see it 20% to 40% higher from here.
It looks like VPHM wants to close green! If it does I think we could see a 2-3 day rally to the $13 level.
Thanks for your analysis Michael. Glad you're back! VPHM took a bite out of my ass too. I'm trying to get back some of it back. My ass that is. I don't want to be called half-assed ;D
At $10.50 now. Looks like a good entry point.
[D] Investor, why not consider other actively gaining stocks like GNBT, NVAX, HEB, etc. short-term instead of shorting VPHM.
After such a large drop, a rebound is always a possibility once the "panic" wears off.
I bought 4000 yesterday,
VPHM dropped more than 40% in two days for concerns over generic rival to its antibiotic Vancocin could enter the market earlier than expected.
In response to the FDA's changed condition, ViroPharma said it has filed a petition for a stay of action with the FDA and said it plans to make additional filings in support of its "vigorous opposition to any approach that does not require rigorous scientific methods to demonstrate a rate and extent of drug release to the site of action consistent with good medicine and science."
The company has $233 million in cash, no debt, and is trading at a little over two times its book value per share. It has a trailing P/E of only 5 and a forward P/E of just 8, and the company was finally able to become profitable in 2005, on the strength of Vancocin. Vancocin is the only approved drug for VPHM for now. However, VPHM still has two other drugs in the in the Clinical Trial Phase.
VPHM is oversold in my opinion. The market is over-reacting on the generic drugs version of Vancocin. The generic drugs won't be out in the market in the mid-2008 earliest. VPHM will increase the price on Vancocin by 6.8 effectively this month. VPHM is very attractive at the current price.
Yesterday at the stock hit the support from last year at 9.74 and made about 85 cent gain so decent trade but who knows if it is done. It is also the 62% retrace so it may hold. I only did the day trade in case there was another shoe to drop. Will likely re enter again
see chart
http://tinyurl.com/qxwtd
11.05, I think this is good for 25-30% gain in the short term.
nice move today >:D
VPHM: Volume Spike; 24% > 20-adsv, Stock +6.90%
Tuesday , March 21, 2006 11:46 ET
This is the 3rd VOLUME alert for VPHM in the past 7 calendar days.
Trading for Viropharma, Incorporated (NASDAQ NM: VPHM) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 11:45 ET, the stock had already traded 7,911,500 shares via 15,327 trades. The cumulative volume is 23.80% above its 20-day average of 6,390,515. Normally the stock experiences around 6,715 individual trades per session.
So far, today's volume surge has caused a net rise in VPHM's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $11.310, up $0.730 (+6.90%).
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $2.390. The price has gained more than 373 percent since then.
Over the last 10 trading session VPHM has traded in a range between $9.700 and $19.750 and is currently trading 53.57% below its 52-week high of $24.360 set on November 07,2005 and 577.25% above its 52-week low of $1.670 from May 02,2005.
I agree. Margin call selling is done. I think it will move up from here.
I got stopped out at 10.68 today on the shares I bought Monday at 10.68. VPHM may want to retest its Monday low. I still expect a DIET-like bounce so I will probably take a new position soon. Just want to make sure it's done with going lower first.
"GO IN THAT HOUSE OF PAIN THAT YOU SEEM TO WANT TO BE IN, BUT GET AWAY FROM ME. I'M TRYING TO WORK, DAMMIT." (Melf Elf, "Need a Diet" thread)
board quotation:
Quick Conference Call Recap
by: equitylongshort
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 03/23/06 07:46 pm
Msg: 109490 of 109591
For those of you who missed it, you can hear a replay of the Goldman Sachs conference this morning at: 800-332-6854 (US) or 973-528-0005 (Int'l), Passcode: 33154.
ViroPharma stated at the beginning of the call that it would not disclose anything new, however, it did elaborate on a few key points and confirmed some prior statements. Most importantly:
1) FDA wrongly classified Vancocin as a type 1 drug when it is in fact a type 3 (no permeability). This means that Vancocin cannot easily enter the bloodstream and so a bioequivalence waver does not apply for generic candidates.
2) FDA "decision" is actually a recommendation only, and was made by a low level employee without consulting the appropriate staff at the FDA responsible for classification, and without consulting published FDA guidelines
3) Viropharma is heavily working behind the scenes to cancel the recommendation and will not disclose these details until the plan is complete. VPHM has a strong game plan which is in motion now.
4) Maribavir Phase II is complete (last enrollment November '05) and results will be announced by the end of March (next week!!!)
5) Maribavir Phase III will begin as scheduled mid year in stem cells, and end of year in organs, indicating that all is clear in Phase II!!
6) Viropharma is in a strong cash position with no debt, solid prospects in the pipeline, and has revenue from SGP from it's licensing of a common cold treatment (there is nothing on the market right now to treat the common cold)
All in all, listening to the call has more than ever convinced me to hold VPHM no matter how low it goes, and to buy more on any weakness. There are a lot of false ideas out there and when the dust settles, VPHM will be back to the 20ies. You may only have to wait until the next earnings release, but don't doubt for a second that when the FDA does a mea culpa, VPHM is going up 3-5 dollars in one pop.
I am holding my shares for the long term ;)
I have already sold off all my VPHM for some small gains. LiveLife is right, there are other much better plays than VPHM at this moment. I agree that the sell-off for VPHM should be done for the meanwhile but remember that the big tank was due to speculative news about the generic competitor for Vancocin and FDA's possibility of putting the generic on fast track.
While VPHM might be recovering now, I think it has a good chance of tanking again if news comes out CONFIRMING that the generic drug is really the same thing as Vancocin and that FDA has decicided to go forward with the fast track policy despite VPHM's petition.
So there's still risk involved (which technical analysis cannot predict) and as an investor I'd like to play it safe.
On the other hand, I am currently shorting NVAX and looking to re-enter long once the recent correction is complete. What do you think LiveLife?
GNBT is REALLY on fire. Unfortunately I already dumped my GNBT a week or two ago to secure my profits. :-\ It's got to correct sometime soon and I'll be looking forward to that! >:D
5) Maribavir Phase III will begin as scheduled mid year in stem cells, and end of year in organs, indicating that all is clear in Phase II!!
If this is true - then Maribavir results should be positive next week??
Why is this stock in such a tight trading range - any thoughts on entering some buys at this point?
In case you haven't been trolling the yahoo board on this all week as I have... some other pieces of information that I've gleaned and believe to be meritorious:
The FDA OGD (office of generic drugs) working group floated the notion of fast-tracking generics for VETERINARIAN use. It appears that this was mis-quoted by what's-his-name at Cowen (who conveniently went on a weeklong vacation this week). P/J picked up on it - and the two were the only ones who issued any statement to the negative on VPHM's behalf. Cramer picked that up - the rest is history in progress. If you check the S&P 'Street Consensus' you will notice that the BUY and BUY/HOLD directives are supported by both Cowen and Piper-Jaffrey... which leads me to speculate that their public downgrade was yet another move on behalf of hedge funds and insiders to pick up millions of shares at retail investor's expense mostly on margin calls, shorting the price to below stop-loss orders, collectively inducing panic at a company whose fundamentals are incredibly solid - especially for a biotech.
Another aspect of the introduction of generic competition is that even if AKRN could bring one to market, the soonest that would happen is only 18 months off the planned patent expiration - and nowhere near the devaluation of the company to the degree this selloff has demonstrated. Generics have a long road ahead in simply manufacturing this drug - the process of which will continue to be protected by patent. As also stated by others on the Y! board, providing a less-reliable generic is inviting more political backlash at FDA on the heels of Phen-phen and Vioxx... are they prepared for a devaluation of THEIR credibility?
Daytraders still seem to be all over it, but it does appear that the $9.70 low will not be seen again, looking for more pre-open institutional buys - and possibly some positive news on maribavir entering it's P3 trials to get this thing chugging uphill again.
There was a CC yesterday for Institutionals only - some Y! folks managed to fake their way into that, even if for only a few minutes and report that not much was stated definitively in the hour; but what was said is that marivabir was on track to enter P3 trials which would strongly suggest that it succeeded in P2 trials - exactly the good news that people would be hanging on their seats at this moment to hear.
Again, I am paraphrasing what others have posted; but some things just sound far more credible on those boards than others (and I'm referring to the 10% of posts that are worth reading).
I'm long VPHM - wanted to get in a bit sooner, I had a strong sense that 10.70 was a reasonable low but managed to buy in at 10.86 after chasing it upwards Thursday afternoon in what looked to be a solid climb (har!). It amazes me that daily volume reflects turning over the float 2 and 3x's!
Market skeptics (or realists, depending on your view - I tend to agree with some of this) could imply that creating negative news out of nothing was part of a plan to quadruple the value of holdings by insiders/institutionals. Why would FDA step up to clarify their statements when it didn't even apply to VPHM? That way, news - even if misquoted to create bad news - won't have any statement to the contrary - good strategy! If Cramer had actually answered the caller Monday night - he 'could' have provided clarification - so read into that what you may (I don't watch TV).
A huge transfer of wealth is in progress here and it gives me cause to reflect that whether one is long or short on stocks - ALL retail investors are in the same boat... at war with the big money and MMs. This is one of those instances where I would give more credit to fundamental analysis over technicals; because I fear that the folks who rely on TA only just gave up their shares for a song. Lemmings! I'm a contrarian in so many aspects, it seems securities are a natural fit for me. I also loath buying things on credit, which makes for a less-leveraged portfolio - but one I can hold on to as long as I want; just what I need so I can sleep over weekends during turbulence :-)
Good luck dear readers!
bohemian2k
WOW... thanks for all the hard work!!!
I'm buying 2000 shares for starters....
I don't know how to applaud ... but you have earned lots of them!
I hope all that is true, but i'm pretty skeptical of anything written on the yahoo boards. I doubled down around 10.4 on monday. Too bad there arent some decent analysts on this stock. Pretty good article on fool.com though.
bohemian2k, can you post the URLs of the information you have discovered about VPHM?
If the generic is indeed for VETERINARIAN use only and VPHM has nothign to lose, then why is VPHM so worried that they are submitting a petition?
Why isn't there an immediate news annoucement about the veterinarian confusion from major financial news media?
Depend data from yahoo (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=VPHM)
21-Mar-06 10.70 11.38 10.64 10.90 <font face=verdana size=4 color=red>15,202,300</font> 10.90
20-Mar-06 10.95 11.08 9.70 10.58 <font face=verdana size=4 color=red>36,183,000</font> 10.58
17-Mar-06 16.13 16.17 10.35 10.86 <font face=verdana size=4 color=red>49,777,200</font> 10.86
Depend data from Nasdaq (http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=ARTG&symbol=VPHM&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=after&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=VPHM)
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 69
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $744
<font face=verdana size=4 color=red>Institutional Ownership: 76.7%</font>
Price (as of 3/24/2006) 10.85
Couldnot be both true? any clue for real institutional position? thx.
I started looking back through the MB... can't select by date so it's a guessing-game as to what posting # it may be. I can't deny that I'm long on VPHM, and I know that is evident by the items I covered. My intention here was more to provide a summary of "Claims I Heard on Yahoo" ; however I wish to apologize for committing the very act I dismiss other posters upon... not citing my sources. Promise to be diligent about that from here on. Again, while most of the material I relayed comes from what I have to assume as being more credible sources - a purely instinctual thing, some of them had provided links. I can't remember whether the reference to veterinarian approval was linked, I have a sense that it was. Couldn't find it using the Y-message search, which dismays me because I know I didn't make this up. That conversation was from about 11-3-ish on Monday.
As for my obvious long sentiment, I would give credit to shorts who were daytrading and were taking advantage of a great setup; but the amount of nonsensical bashing that was going on there enabled me to hit the ignore button often.
BTW, my take on VPHM making a statement: May have been the only reason this even got anyone's attention in the first place - precipitating the slide; cynical as I am, this is not out of the equation. Otherwise, it was perhaps to reiterate concern about a perceived threat to their patent. If I'm correct as a cynic, the next move is for this stock to run up past $24 on good news they may be sitting on, good earnings as well - the only way to verify would be to find out how many shares were (re)purchased by insiders. If this was a market manipulation, it really couldn't have happened at a more opportune moment.
I'm feeling a bit out on the same 'speculative limb' at the moment, I'd better quit here.
"5) Maribavir Phase III will begin as scheduled mid year in stem cells, and end of year in organs, indicating that all is clear in Phase II!!
If this is true - then Maribavir results should be positive next week??
Why is this stock in such a tight trading range - any thoughts on entering some buys at this point?"
Brandyjoco,
Please listen to the Goldman Sach's conference call, the CEO Derosen specifically stated that the company would initiate Maribavir Phase 3 trials ***IF the results from phase 2 (which are coming soon) are positive. Lets not confuse when The CEO talks about "what the company hopes to achieve in 2006" with what will happen.
The conference was very positive indeed and I don't believe you will see VPHM trade this low for too long. It is way out of line with the fundamentals even with worst case scenario of a generic entering the market in 2008-2009 (and I highly doubt it) . The company is very profitable and will continue to be profitable even *IF* a Generic would enter the market to capture a piece of it at some point in time.
Fantazia
fyi:
next months data will be very interesting; IMO this was monitored before the rumerous
VPHM: Short Interest DN 20.3% to 4.6M in Mar 2006
Friday , March 24, 2006 16:22 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 20.3% to 4,613,461 shares for the month ended mid-March, 2006.
SYMBOL FEBRUARY MARCH CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 5,792,152 4,613,461 -1,178,691 -20.35% 1
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 7,585,675, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Could this be the week for a DIET-like bounce? My buy stop triggered at 11.11 so I'm back in. Target $13 - $14
There seems so much dodgyness to this collapse that any positive news regarding the FDA ruling will likely pop VPHM a decent percentage upwards.
Now the dust has settled and a bottom found I decided to get some options, so I purchased Aug $15 Calls ( +DUZHC ), paid $85 per contract (contract being 100 options).
Reason for options? As I'm looking for a recovery play, the returns from options give me a better risk reward here. Aug calls gives me a few weeks /months for recovery to play out.
What about the risk I here people say? Well with options I only buy as many contracts as I would actual shares e.g. if my normal position size for VPHM (at $11 each) is 1000 shares, then I buy 10 contracts. So I control 1000 shares but only pay $850.
Last price on these calls was $100 per contract
I love VPHM but I just cant see anything happening in the near term without any significant news releases...
So many fresh bagholders that are pissed off and want to sell out of VPHM after the drop....VPHM will need to either release news to eat up their shares or VPHM will need time to "process" the bagholders.
I see 12.30-12.40 as huge resistance - I could be wrong but we can at least agree to disagree.
cal >:D
Huge news out from VPHM tonight, looking for nice pop tommorow! :)
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060329/nyw169.html?.v=32
Hoping for a SQUEEZE. I bought 1k at 12.15 pre maturely, and then doubled down with another 1k at 10.84. I am looking for 14 to bail. We shall see.
why bail? Maribavir will be best in class for CMV (if all goes as planned in phase 3) this alone is a potential 500million market. That aside, Vancocin scripts are near record levels in this Q1, 1 full quarter ahead of peak script season. This is a 25-30$ stock in 1-2years. Data on thier phase 1 candidate for Hep. C is due out early Q2.
I just put my shares away and let the stock do its work!
Fantazia,
There is a lot of panic still over the generic scare, and if the hedgies are hell bent on driving it down as they seemed to be, there will be too many rebound players looking to lock in short term rebound profits, and the hedgies know it. Add that to the people who buy on the gap freaking out as it drops and you could see some big selling at some point. I see possibly locking in some profits, and picking up more on the dip.
Of course, I could be an idiot and it could go straight to the moon as I question my IQ. It would not be the first time. I will admit it is tempting to just turn my head, but if there is a big gap, I've got to take advantage of it.
Oicpecnoc,
Nothing wrong with taking profits.
Myself though I prefer to be patient and take a lot bigger profits down the road (2-3years). Look how VRTX took off from 10's to 40's on news of a blockbuster drug in its pipeline, I bet those selling on the original pop from 10's to 15's are kicking themselves big time. Biotech is a beast in its own right. A stock can come crashing down and just as fast come sprinting up. Its all about future revenue drivers. Maribavir looks really good at this point.
Besides, I can't find this generic Vancocin that scared so many off, its still a myth of *if/but/maybe* it will be on the market in 2008/2009 (if ever) I will hold my shares :)
Good luck to all
good news out, tomorrow will be fine:
ViroPharma Announces Positive Phase 2 Results Demonstrating That Maribavir Significantly Reduces CMV Reactivation
Wednesday, March 29, 2006 20:17 ET
EXTON, Pa., March 29, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced positive preliminary results from a Phase 2 study with maribavir, an oral antiviral drug candidate currently being developed to inhibit cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation in transplant patients. The data from this study demonstrate that prophylaxis with maribavir displays strong antiviral activity, as measured by significant reduction in the rate of reactivation of CMV in recipients of allogeneic stem cell (bone marrow) transplants, and that administration of maribavir for up to 12 weeks has a favorable tolerability profile in this very sick patient population. The full data set will be presented at a future medical meeting.
"We could not have hoped for better results, as these data show that treatment with maribavir dramatically reduces the incidence of CMV reactivation in these very sick patients. In fact, the only cases of CMV disease in this trial occurred in the placebo group -- there were no cases of CMV disease in subjects who received maribavir," commented Colin Broom, ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "These results could potentially change the current treatment paradigm in which transplant physicians usually wait until CMV can be detected in the blood, indicating that the virus is multiplying, before initiating treatment. If untreated, there is a high risk that the virus will continue to replicate and lead to potentially lethal CMV disease. The reason physicians are reluctant to use currently available therapies as prophylaxis, particularly in stem cell transplant, is the toxicities associated with available therapies, particularly bone marrow or kidney toxicities. These data from our Phase 2 study suggest that maribavir could be used as prophylaxis to prevent CMV infection and thus prevent CMV disease."
"With these new data now in hand, we can move forward toward pivotal Phase 3 studies," added Broom. "Our plan is to meet with the FDA as soon as possible to discuss the data and reach agreement on the Phase 3 program. Our goal is to initiate a pivotal Phase 3 study in allogeneic stem cell transplant patients mid-year and a subsequent Phase 3 study in solid organ transplant patients by year end."
Study Design
The maribavir Phase 2 clinical trial was a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging study at 13 transplant centers across the U.S. involving CMV seropositive subjects who have undergone allogeneic stem cell transplantation. A total of 111 subjects were randomized 3:1 to receive maribavir or placebo in each of three ascending dose groups (100 mg BID, 400 mg QD, 400 mg BID). All subjects were monitored frequently for CMV infection, and if CMV was detected, study drug (maribavir or placebo) was discontinued and the subject was managed according to current standards of care at each transplant center, including starting pre-emptive anti-CMV treatment at the discretion of the investigator.
The objectives of this study included an evaluation of the safety and tolerability of maribavir administered orally for up to 12 weeks, and an evaluation of the prophylactic activity of maribavir in preventing CMV reactivation in CMV seropositive recipients of allogeneic stem cell transplants. The term 'prophylaxis' in this setting refers to therapy given to subjects starting before there is any evidence of CMV replication, to prevent CMV infection and in turn prevent CMV disease.
Antiviral activity of maribavir as measured by reductions in CMV reactivation
Available preliminary data from this Phase 2 clinical study includes all data for subjects through at least 12 weeks after enrollment, and indicated the following:
* In an intent-to-treat analysis of the first 100 days post-transplant,
the number of subjects who required pre-emptive anti-CMV therapy was
statistically significantly reduced (p = 0.051 to 0.001) in each of the
maribavir groups compared to the placebo group (57% for placebo vs.
15%, 30%, and 15% for maribavir 100 mg BID, 400 mg QD, and 400 mg BID,
respectively).
* Separate analyses of the incidence of CMV infection as measured by
different CMV assays such as CMV pp65 antigenemia or plasma CMV DNA PCR
were consistent in showing fewer CMV infections in each of the
maribavir groups compared to placebo. In most cases, the reduction in
rates of infection between patients in the maribavir groups and placebo
were statistically significant.
* There were no cases of CMV disease in any of the maribavir groups,
whereas CMV disease was reported in three subjects (11%) in the placebo
group.
* There have been no reports of late CMV disease (after the 100 day
post-transplant period), although patient follow-up remains ongoing for
some subjects in the study.
Tolerability of maribavir
Administration of maribavir for up to 12 weeks had a favorable tolerability profile in this study in this very sick patient population. The incidence of most adverse events occurred at similar rates in maribavir and placebo groups.
* Consistent with prior clinical studies, the most notable adverse events
that appeared to be associated with maribavir were taste disturbance
and nausea.
* In contrast to a prior Phase 1 study in HIV-infected subjects, skin
rash was reported at similar rates in maribavir and placebo groups in
this study, and thus did not appear to be associated with maribavir
administration.
* Preliminary analyses of laboratory data did not identify any notable
differences between maribavir groups and placebo. In particular, there
was no adverse impact on neutrophil count or other hematologic
parameters.
Conference Call and Webcast
ViroPharma is hosting a live teleconference and webcast with senior management to discuss the clinical results and other business on March 30, 2006 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. To participate in the conference call, please dial (800) 391-2548 (domestic) and (302) 709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
Alternatively, the live webcast of the conference call can be accessed via ViroPharma's website at http://www.viropharma.com. Windows Media or Real Player will be needed to access the webcast. An audio archive will be available at the same address until April 13, 2006.
About Maribavir
Maribavir is a potent and selective, orally bioavailable antiviral drug with a unique mechanism of action against cytomegalovirus and a favorable early clinical safety profile. It is a potent member of a new class of drugs called benzimidazole ribosides. Unlike currently available anti-CMV agents that inhibit CMV DNA polymerase, maribavir inhibits viral DNA assembly and inhibits egress of viral capsids from the nucleus of infected cells. Maribavir is active in vitro against strains of CMV that are resistant to commonly used anti-CMV drugs.
About Cytomegalovirus
CMV is a member of the herpes virus group, which includes the viruses that cause chicken pox, mononucleosis, herpes labialis (cold sores), and herpes genitalis (genital herpes). Like other herpesviruses, CMV has the ability to remain dormant in the body for long periods of time. Human CMV infection rates average between 50% and 85% of adults in the U.S. by 40 years of age, but in healthy adults causes little to no apparent illness. However, in immunocompromised individuals, CMV can lead to serious disease or death. Patients who are immunosuppressed following hematopoietic stem cell (bone marrow) or solid organ transplantation are at high risk of CMV infection. In these patients, CMV can lead to severe conditions such as pneumonitis or hepatitis, or to complications such as acute or chronic rejection of a transplanted organ. While currently available systemic anti-CMV agents are effective against the virus, their use is limited by toxicities, most notably bone marrow suppression and renal impairment.
Should be interesting!!!
I see potential resistance at 12.45, 13.40, then not much before 15.50-15.60. There may be a struggle getting through the 13s and low 14s, as this was where it rebounded after the initial drop before plungiing again. I expect quite a few people got suckered in (myself included) thinking the first drop was the low, and may want to take this opportunity to get out of what had been an ugly losing situation.
Still, I think this could provide strong momentum for a turnaround in VPHMs woes, and still think I can make a solid profit on my entry at 13.32. Short to medium term target is to get back into its previous trading range above $16.
GL all ;)
must say i was not expecting a gap to 13.20 by 830. Hmmm. What to do.
13.06 in pre mkt. ;D
ViroPharma Announces Positive Phase 2 Results Demonstrating That Maribavir Significantly Reduces CMV Reactivation
March 29, 2006 20:17:44 (ET)
EXTON, Pa., March 29, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (VPHM, Trade) today announced positive preliminary results from a Phase 2 study with maribavir, an oral antiviral drug candidate currently being developed to inhibit cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation in transplant patients. The data from this study demonstrate that prophylaxis with maribavir displays strong antiviral activity, as measured by significant reduction in the rate of reactivation of CMV in recipients of allogeneic stem cell (bone marrow) transplants, and that administration of maribavir for up to 12 weeks has a favorable tolerability profile in this very sick patient population. The full data set will be presented at a future medical meeting.
"We could not have hoped for better results, as these data show that treatment with maribavir dramatically reduces the incidence of CMV reactivation in these very sick patients. In fact, the only cases of CMV disease in this trial occurred in the placebo group -- there were no cases of CMV disease in subjects who received maribavir," commented Colin Broom, ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "These results could potentially change the current treatment paradigm in which transplant physicians usually wait until CMV can be detected in the blood, indicating that the virus is multiplying, before initiating treatment. If untreated, there is a high risk that the virus will continue to replicate and lead to potentially lethal CMV disease. The reason physicians are reluctant to use currently available therapies as prophylaxis, particularly in stem cell transplant, is the toxicities associated with available therapies, particularly bone marrow or kidney toxicities. These data from our Phase 2 study suggest that maribavir could be used as prophylaxis to prevent CMV infection and thus prevent CMV disease."
"With these new data now in hand, we can move forward toward pivotal Phase 3 studies," added Broom. "Our plan is to meet with the FDA as soon as possible to discuss the data and reach agreement on the Phase 3 program. Our goal is to initiate a pivotal Phase 3 study in allogeneic stem cell transplant patients mid-year and a subsequent Phase 3 study in solid organ transplant patients by year end."
Study Design
The maribavir Phase 2 clinical trial was a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging study at 13 transplant centers across the U.S. involving CMV seropositive subjects who have undergone allogeneic stem cell transplantation. A total of 111 subjects were randomized 3:1 to receive maribavir or placebo in each of three ascending dose groups (100 mg BID, 400 mg QD, 400 mg BID). All subjects were monitored frequently for CMV infection, and if CMV was detected, study drug (maribavir or placebo) was discontinued and the subject was managed according to current standards of care at each transplant center, including starting pre-emptive anti-CMV treatment at the discretion of the investigator.
The objectives of this study included an evaluation of the safety and tolerability of maribavir administered orally for up to 12 weeks, and an evaluation of the prophylactic activity of maribavir in preventing CMV reactivation in CMV seropositive recipients of allogeneic stem cell transplants. The term 'prophylaxis' in this setting refers to therapy given to subjects starting before there is any evidence of CMV replication, to prevent CMV infection and in turn prevent CMV disease.
What to do? I sold the gap up 13.05. Actually the first bounce - it dipped to 12.90 and bounced and then I sold. Just in time it seems but the day is young. 13.13 puts me back in. All I need is $2 profit on a trade either long or short and I'll be in the green with VPHM. That's what it takes for me to collect on the debt VPHM put me in.
update:
JAGfn Rumors
Wednesday, March 29, 2006 10:42 ET
Mar 29, 2006 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) -- (VPHM) Rumor that ViroPharma (VPHM) may be the target of a larger pharmaceutical company.
&
VPHM: Infinium Ups to Neutral from Underperform; Keeps Tgt @ $15; Analyst Notes
Thursday , March 30, 2006 15:14 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Infinium Capital
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Neutral (from Underperform)
Target Price Action: MAINTAIN
Target Price: $15.00
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their upgrade.
I will hold this baby
Quote from: AussieTrader on March 27, 2006, 09:44:49 PM
There seems so much dodgyness to this collapse that any positive news regarding the FDA ruling will likely pop VPHM a decent percentage upwards.
Now the dust has settled and a bottom found I decided to get some options, so I purchased Aug $15 Calls ( +DUZHC ), paid $85 per contract (contract being 100 options).
Reason for options? As I'm looking for a recovery play, the returns from options give me a better risk reward here. Aug calls gives me a few weeks /months for recovery to play out.
What about the risk I here people say? Well with options I only buy as many contracts as I would actual shares e.g. if my normal position size for VPHM (at $11 each) is 1000 shares, then I buy 10 contracts. So I control 1000 shares but only pay $850.
Last price on these calls was $100 per contract
I am currently travelling in the UK, but as I had expected news and speculation are starting to drive the VPHM train. My Aug calls are 50% up on entry price a few days ago. I'll let this run some more I think as something interesting seems to be plyaying out.
Any opinions? in at 11.88 average.
Effigy,
PLEASE can you post on one of the existing VPHM threads instead of making a new one - there are so many already here!!
If you are having trouble finding one, use the search bar twice (i.e. search for VPHM and then hit search again). Dunno why but the first search doesn't always pick up all the threads.
Cheers,
Scotsman
Weekly Prescriptions - Record Levels
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 04/03/06 10:56 am
Msg: 115479 of 115480
The weekly prescription totals for the first four weeks of March are: 3/3 - 2,299; 3/10 - 2,291; 3/17 - 2,322; 3/24 - 2,479.
There has never been 4 sequential weeks that even come close to the weekly totals we are seeing. What is truly remarkable about this is the four weeks are trending higher as we are about to go into the high season. April through June will be spectacular as will the rest of the year.
As the more virulent strain of CDAD continues to spread through out the USA and as VPHM's educational efforts continue, we will see ever increasing prescription numbers.
It is obvious the Zack's analyst was wrong regarding the growth of Vancocin sales.
Quote from: bigdogs99999 on January 18, 2006, 02:40:09 PM
Drug stocks have long been a favorite of mine. I do not think VPHM a long term holding; I think it fully valued. VPHM has one product, an antibiotic, for which it paid $116 million to Lilly. An antibiotic is not a bet the farm type of drug. The company has a $1.1 billion market cap based on selling about $100 million per year in that product. That gives it a price to sales ratio of about 10. VERY VERY high. The big drug cos (like a Pfizer) is only 3 or 4 these days, and even Amgen is about 8. Trailing EPS is about 20 times, and guesstimate for 2006 is 18 times ... not a small number these days for a drug stock. The development pipeline is not particularly impressive, and only one product has hit phase two. Finding this stock when it got the rights to Vancocin was a great find and congratulations to all who profited (I never bought in - found it too late). But I think that this stock has had its run and will essentially be dead money for awhile.
Quote from: Michael on January 18, 2006, 03:05:01 PM
Hi Big Dog,
Before I start to abuse you let me just say that I in general like dogs - especially big dogs ;)
Well I don't know if I would bet my farm on VPHM (or any stock for that matter) but I have earned enough on VPHM to buy a small farm. You might want to do a little DD before you take your final decision on Viropharma.
Now that Michael is "the man," how can I resist the old Wrath of Khan line that revenge is a dish best served cold? Lol. Okay, on to something useful. VPHM fundamentals are looking somewhat better ... on dips below $11, there seems to be enough value based on ttm sales/earnings and 1 and 2 year projections to make this an interesting pick, particularly as a trading pick on 8-10% swings. Given the trading volumes in March, most everyone who wants out of the stock is probably out....
I'm back in at 12.00. Gap filled Monday and Tuesday. Turning back up and it has upside to $14.50 to complete a 38.2 Fib retrace. If it stalls in the low 13's again, we'll have an ascending triangle in the making.
Nice Link:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=30&b=5&g=0&id=p90852411420&a=74300158
VPHM: Jumps +1.16%; Vol +52%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 16:21 ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $11.22 $11.35 +1.16%
VOLUME 1,114,800 1,698,000 +52.31%
#TRADES 1,922 2,665 +38.66%
DAY-HI $11.26 $11.36 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $11.00 $11.00 N/A
Weekly prescriptions totaled 2,424 for the week ended 4/7/06 which is the second highest weekly total on record!! The highest weekly total occurred for the week ended 3/24/06 and totaled 2,479. We are off to a spectacular year and second quarter. Management will be forced to raise Vancocin sales guidance upward.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=120485
ViroPharma Announces Approval of Third Party Manufacturing and Supply Chain for Vancocin
Wednesday April 19, 4:30 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., April 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced the successful completion of the finished goods technology transfer from Eli Lilly and Company to OSG Norwich Pharmaceuticals, Inc., the company's third party Vancocin® manufacturer. Norwich has begun manufacturing batches of product for release into the market. ViroPharma has also reached an agreement with, and validated, Alpharma Inc., the company's third party supplier of the active pharmaceutical ingredient for Vancocin. With this, the company has now completed validation of its third party supply chain for Vancocin, which is indicated for the treatment of antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by Clostridium difficile.
"This is a great step forward for ViroPharma and the patients we serve," commented Josh Tarnoff, ViroPharma's Chief Commercial Officer. "Vancocin is a product that addresses a life-threatening condition, and is a difficult product to manufacture to necessary specifications to ensure stability and potency. The validation of the supply chain represents the successful conclusion of nearly two years of diligent work by ViroPharma, Eli Lilly and Norwich."
As previously described, ViroPharma anticipates improvements in gross margins, due to the qualification of this third party supply chain, beginning in the second half of 2006, as product manufactured in the Lilly facility is pulled through the channel.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease, including death. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic-associated diarrhea per year; 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
FDA update:
Generic Drug Petition In FDA Limbo
Friday , April 21, 2006 01:05 ET
Apr 21, 2006 (financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- April 21, 2006 (FinancialWire) The number of testing hurdles faced by generic drug makers hoping to compete with branded products remains undecided as the Food and Drug Administration ponders the merits of a petition brought by Shire PLC (NASDAQ: SHPGY) that seeks to make them higher.
Branded drug manufacturers such as Shire, ViroPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: VPHM) Salix Pharmaceutical Ltd. (NASDAQ: SLXP) have all recently been involved in legal wrangling over the issue of just how much, and what type of, testing needs to be done before a generic can be marketed as a proper alternative to a branded drug.
Shire's petition concerns attempts by generic drug makers to produce clones of Adderall XR, the company's treatment for attention deficit disorder. Shire wants more comprehensive testing to establish bioequivalence between the generic and branded drugs.
The FDA needs more time to review the complex issues involved before making any decision that would change its testing policies.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.86ea430bbc69f316438e094dacca27dba05826b1e8cbb5dc3af8fa87e6176b6b
Does vphm chart looks interesting?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59547409767
update:
ViroPharma Announces Data Presentations at Two Upcoming Scientific Meetings
Tuesday , April 25, 2006 15:24 ET
EXTON, Pa., April 25, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced today that abstracts regarding HCV-796, an orally dosed non-nucleoside viral polymerase inhibitor with the potential to interfere with the replication of hepatitis C virus that is being co-developed with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE), will be presented at two upcoming scientific meetings: the 2006 European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) meeting, to be held this week in Vienna, Austria (April 26th to 30th, 2006), and at the 2006 Digestive Disease Week (DDW) meeting, to be held in Los Angeles, California (May 20th to 25th, 2006). The abstract contents are available on the EASL (http://www.easl.ch/easl2006) and DDW (http://www.ddw.org) web sites.
Abstract at EASL:
Safety and pharmacokinetics of the non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor, HCV-796: Results of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, ascending single-dose study in healthy subjects. Chandra P, Raible D, Moyer L, Harper D, Speth J, Villano S, Fruncillo R
Abstract at DDW:
Antiviral activity of the non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor, HCV-796, in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus: preliminary results from a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, ascending multiple-dose study. Chandra P, Raible D, Harper D, Speth J, Villano S, Bichier G
HCV-796 is an investigational non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor compound for the treatment of hepatitis C that is being evaluated in ongoing clinical trials in combination with PEG-Interferon by ViroPharma and Wyeth. In previously disclosed results from the phase 1b study of HCV-796 as a monotherapy, the patient cohort with the highest exposure to the compound achieved a peak mean HCV viral load reduction of 1.4 log10, or 96 percent, on day four of a 14-day dosing period. HCV-796 was found to be generally well tolerated, with favorable pharmacokinetics and no dose-limiting toxicities. Mild to moderate headache was the most frequent adverse event reported overall. There were no treatment-emergent serious adverse events.
&
VPHM: Short Interest UP 66.8% to 7.7M in Apr 2006
Tuesday , April 25, 2006 16:27 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 66.8% to 7,696,507 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2006.
SYMBOL MARCH APRIL CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 4,613,461 7,696,507 +3,083,046 +66.83% 3
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 3,518,850, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
With good 1st Quarter results on May 4th, VPHM will be popping nicely IMO (chekc the latest Vac. numbers posted before)
just FYI; quotation from VPHM board:
I feel that there is some people here that are not very happy with the current price action on VPHM. Thats understandable, I am going to offer some opinions and and some charts. Now please take this as just my view point. I am not always correct, but I have been succesful as a proffesional trader for some time now. Keep in mind that everyone here has there own personal situation that they are in. Some of you were in VPHM when it crashed, some of you got in after the crash, some of you bought into the phase II results, and some of you are short(trust me they are here). Since I am offering my opinion, I will disclose that I got into VPHM on crash day. I think entries are very important, and I managed to get in near the 68% fib. I also am long a substantial amount of shares. Maybe not as many as IRC, but in the 6 figures. I actually picked up another 3k shares today. With that said, lets look at things with all emotions aside.
I am sure that most of you have done your DD, otherwise you would not be here. I will briefly highlight some of the reasons why I think this is a value. It might seem redundant since most of you know this, however its good to remind yourself when the pains of emotions cloud our judgement. The Vancocin generic situation to me is complete B.S. There still has been no company that has declared any intention to develop it yet. Many believe that AKN might be developing it. Has anyone looked into this company? I would assume that the smart money would be hedging with the purchase of this stock. Look at the volume of AKN, its pitiful. The company does not even have the cash to go through clinical trials if they were required. Now considering it took 2 years for VPHM to make a new supply chain, who will flip the bill for the manufacturing. Keep in mind it took 2 years with Lilly's help. The FDA has also been served with a stay of action. Look at that recent press release regarding Shire pharma. They still have not come up with a conclusion on that issue. The way things are going, it might take longer for a competing vancocin to come out now without the clinical trials. Another point I wanted to bring up is that VPHM bought vancocin when it was already out of patent. If it was very easy to make, why wouldn't a huge generic maker like TEVA have done it? Pure and simple not enough money to be made.
Now we also have Maribavair. from the press release that was issued, it could possibly revolutionize the treatments for CMV. That another potential 500 million market. Larger than vanco. The results look good, and we have a sucker like Wei who questions the side effects. Who is he kidding. "taste disturbances and nasea". This treats a life threatening disease. Should we stop chemotherapy because of it side effects? I think that he has his own agenda also.
We also have the HCV-796. From what I can see from the preliminary results this could have hugh potential. We are talking about hepatitis here. I can't even begin to fathom them drug market worldwide for that drug.
We also have the the current financial situation of VPHM. The company has sufficient cash to purchase another 3-4 drugs that are in development. Not to mention that they will probably have about $6-10 a share in cash before there with be any vanco competition. I understand that stocks trade on future earnings, and that the shorts best defense. Have they even thought about what the company would do with that much cash? what about those future earnings? Most biotechs trade on the hopes that they will get lucky on one of their drugs.
Now technically speaking, VPHM is improving. It might not seem like it to most people. Most people relate technicals soley to price and price fluctuations. To me price is secondary to what the indicators show. I look primarily at if the indicators are showing either positive divergances or a bullish sign. We are still weak, and I have never stated that VPHM is a strong stock technically. TA is similiar to fundamentals. Eventually the PPS will react to the signs the TA is showing. The only exception to that is if there is a fundamental change. In that case TA is trumped by fundamentals. So far even though some of the indicators have dropped off sometimes. They have not caused lower lows than the original crash day. If the RSI, Stochs, MFI, CMF, etc would make a lower peak than crash day. I would start getting concerned. Here is a briefly updated Daily chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p56927988804&a=74789865
Another technical that we also need to consider is the biotech industry as a whole. Currently the whole sector has been in correction for a while. The last time it bounced of its 200 day, and its getting close again. The institutions have most of their trading set up on auto-pilot. We are in a day and age were buy and sell programs are a significant force. This computerized models help them make sure they are in the correct sectors. The momentum will eventually switch soon, and biotech will be "hot" again. Until then we have that to consider also. Here is a chart of the biotech sector.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BTK&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p26372531562&a=75308040&listNum=-2
Maybe I am just rambling, but my intentions are good. I really would like all of you guys to make some money. The worst feeling is seeing a stock that you held for so long take off soon after you sell it. I posted this link before, I think we could be at #14.
http://www.retro.ms11.net/InvestorMind.gif
Good luck to all you guys. I hope this would be considered useful. I annontate my charts to share what I see. Otherwise I can just look at a chart and get the same ideas in 2 minutes. BTW, I do have a stop set up for half of my shares at 9.64. If that is breached, I would be concerned. Remember there is always another stock to invest in. Capital preservation is the MOST important thing.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/VIROPHARMA/message/1961
I agree with you, Oliver. That is why VPHM is my pick for this contest. I don't know if it will be enough of a rocket to get towards the top of the standings but earnings next week should be good and hopefully will dissuade some of the fears that have resulted in the PPS getting hammered.
I don't know if this is going up or down before next Thursday but I've started building my own position in case it builds into earnings.
thursday will be very interesting.... >:D >:D >:D
VIROPHARMA INC (RT-ECN)
Symbol: VPHM
Last Trade: 11.75 4:00PM ET
After Hours Change: N/A
Today's Change: Up 0.51 (4.54%)
Bid: 10.62
Ask: 11.30
news out:
yaoo board quotation:
From: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 1, 2006 3:16 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions
Prescriptions for the week ended 4/21 totaled 2,311. Prior week total
was 2,393. The weekly prescription total is very strong although down
from the prior week. It may be that Easter Sunday caused the decrease.
We will see next week. Regardless, the news is very good. April
scripts will be a new record. Remember, the trend is your friend.
&
ViroPharma Announces Presentation of Pharmacokinetic Data From HCV-796 Phase 1a Study
Monday May 1, 3:20 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., May 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that pharmacokinetic (PK) data from a Phase 1a trial of HCV-796, an orally dosed non-nucleoside viral polymerase inhibitor with the potential to interfere with the replication of hepatitis C virus, that is being co-developed with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - News), were presented at the 2006 European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) meeting in Vienna, Austria, which concluded yesterday. These data concluded that the safety and PK profile of the compound supported additional clinical evaluation. HCV-796 is currently in Phase 1b testing in combination with PEG-interferon.
"These initial Phase 1a data were the first set of data from our human clinical analyses of HCV-796, and important in that they set the stage for our ongoing multiple dose studies," commented Steve Villano, ViroPharma's vice president of clinical research and development. "Overall, the findings demonstrate that the absorption and elimination profile, distribution, half life, and tolerability of HCV-796 are acceptable, and supportive of our ongoing clinical development."
Trial Description
This Phase 1a study was an ascending single dose, placebo-controlled trial designed to assess the safety and tolerability of HCV-796 in healthy adult volunteers. Fasting healthy subjects were randomly assigned to receive 25, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000, or 2000 mg oral doses of HCV-796 or placebo (six active, two placebo per dose group). Subjects in the 100-mg dose cohort received HCV-796 in a fasting and fed state.
Results
The safety profile from this study indicates that single oral doses of HCV-796 are generally well tolerated with no serious treatment-emergent adverse events. Mild to moderate headache was the most frequently reported adverse event. There were no apparent dose-related increases in frequency for any adverse event. There were no significant differences in the rate of adverse events between patients on drug compared to placebo. The PK data showed that the maximum concentration (Cmax) and drug exposure as measured by the area under the curve (AUC) increased less than proportionally with increasing dose, and appeared to reach a plateau at the 1000 mg cohort. HCV- 796 displayed a long half life. When dosed with food at the 100 mg dose level, drug exposure as measured by AUC increased approximately 1.4 fold, providing the first evidence that systemic exposure to the drug may be increased by dosing with food and leading to an additional study designed to specifically assess the potential enhancement of drug exposure when dosed with food.
HCV-796 is an investigational non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor compound for the treatment of hepatitis C that is being evaluated in ongoing clinical trials in combination with PEG-Interferon by ViroPharma and Wyeth. In previously disclosed results from the Phase 1b study of HCV-796 as a monotherapy, the patient cohort with the highest exposure to drug achieved a peak mean HCV viral load reduction of 1.4 log10, or 96 percent, on day four of a 14-day dosing period. HCV-796 was found to be generally well tolerated, with favorable pharmacokinetics and no dose-limiting toxicities. Mild to moderate headache was the most frequent adverse event reported overall. There were no treatment-emergent serious adverse events.
About Hepatitis C
Hepatitis C is a blood-borne virus recognized as a major cause of chronic hepatitis worldwide. The World Health Organization estimates that 170 million persons worldwide are chronically infected with HCV, and three to four million persons are newly infected globally each year. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), about four million people in the U.S., or 1.8 percent of the population, are infected with HCV.
Currently, there is no specific antiviral agent directed against HCV that is commercially available, and no vaccine for prevention of HCV infection. Several interferon (IFN) products are available worldwide, but there are substantial limitations to the use of these products when given as monotherapy or in conjunction with ribavirin in the treatment of chronic HCV infection. In addition to the relatively poor treatment response in patients infected with genotype 1 HCV, the most common strain in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan, the considerable side effects frequently associated with the use of IFN can lead to discontinuation of therapy in approximately 20% of patients.
TA chart from alimovstock (yahoo board) >:D >:D
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66123533398&a=75853137
I'm surprised no one is talking about VPHM. ??? The stock tanks because of the future threat of generics arriving but the near future fundamental picture hasn't changed - it appears to be strengthening! VPHM was a value favorite of Michael's for a long time. This seems almost as predictable as buying KOMG before earnings. Has everyone abandoned ship!?!
Hanging out around $11 waiting for earnings tomorrow morning....
I am still invested and earnings are out:
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports First Quarter 2006 Financial Results and Reiterates Full Year Vancocin Sales Guidance
Thursday May 4, 7:00 am ET
EXTON, Pa., May 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2006.
Recent operational highlights include:
-- Underlying prescription demand for Vancocin, measured by IMS, grew 39
percent over the first quarter of 2005;
-- A portion of prescription demand was met by a reduction in wholesaler
inventory;
-- Net product sales grew 39 percent compared to the first quarter of
2005;
-- Working capital grew $12 million to $179 million;
-- Fast track designation for maribavir received from U.S. Food and Drug
Administration (FDA);
-- Maribavir shown in phase 2 study to be well tolerated and to
significantly reduce incidence of CMV reactivation in stem cell
transplant patients;
-- Third party manufacturing and supply chain for Vancocin approved; and
-- Petition filed with FDA to stay approval of generic versions of
Vancocin in the absence of appropriate standards.
Net sales of Vancocin® were $29.2 million for the first quarter of 2006, representing a 38.8 percent increase from $21.1 million for the first quarter of 2005.
Operating income in the first quarter of 2006 was $13.4 million compared to $17.4 million operating income in the first quarter of 2005. Factors that reduced operating income included the fact that 2006 does not include any license fee revenue, whereas 2005 included $6.0 million license fee revenue and that other operating expenses increased $4.1 million as compared to the first quarter of 2005, including $0.9 million of share-based compensation. Partially offsetting the reductions to operating income was the increase in gross margin of $6.1 million related to sales of Vancocin.
"Prescription demand for Vancocin as reported by IMS during the first quarter of 2006 continued to grow to its highest point in the history of this product, though our product sales were significantly impacted by a reduction in product inventory levels in the wholesaler channel," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's chief operating officer and chief financial officer. "We believe that our sales of Vancocin have been impacted by changes in wholesaler inventory levels every quarter since we acquired Vancocin; however, the first quarter of 2006 represents the first time wholesalers have chosen to reduce their inventory levels of the product to this degree. Despite this recent change in wholesaler levels, underlying prescription demand remains very strong; as such we are reiterating the guidance we last gave for net sales of Vancocin of $160 to $170 million for the full-year 2006."
"From an operations perspective, the beginning of 2006 was marked by some significant successes and challenges," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's Chief Executive Officer. "Of course, we were thrilled by the Phase 2 data for maribavir showing that maribavir not only met its primary end point, it was also well tolerated, and showed extraordinary results in reducing the incidence of CMV reactivation in these very sick patients at every dose group. We also completed the full approval of our third party supply chain for Vancocin, which will, among other things, improve our already strong product margins as we head toward the end of this year."
Continued de Rosen, "A significant event occurred on March 16th and 17th when we were surprised by an apparent change in opinion at the Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) regarding what had previously been their approach requiring generic competitors to demonstrate bioequivalence to Vancocin through clinical studies or appropriately validated in vitro methodology. At that point we made our first filing with the FDA, a petition for a stay of action regarding the use of dissolution data as the premise for granting bioequivalence waivers, which we do not consider to be an appropriate standard. We believe that only through adequate and well-controlled human clinical trials can the efficacy, and perhaps most importantly the safety, of a generic version of oral Vancocin be confirmed. For a life-saving product such as Vancocin this issue is exceptionally important to the healthcare community and the patients we serve."
The adoption of SFAS 123R, "Share-based Payments," resulted in $0.9 million of expense, excluding the impact of income taxes. This results in a $0.01 per share impact for basic and diluted earnings per share.
Net income in the first quarter of 2006 was $8.2 million, compared to $17.4 million in the first quarter of 2005. Net income per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2006 was $0.12 per share, basic and diluted, compared to a net income of $0.64 per share, basic, and $0.36 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2005.
The primary drivers of the lower results were the effects of lower operating income discussed above and income tax expense of $5.5 million in the first quarter of 2006, while no income tax was recorded in the first quarter of 2005.
Operating Highlights
During the quarter ended March 31, 2006, net sales of Vancocin increased 38.8 percent compared to the same period in 2005 due to the impact of price increases, partially offset by lower unit sales. The Company believes, based upon data reported by IMS Health Incorporated, that prescriptions in the 2006 period exceeded prescriptions in the 2005 period by 39 percent. Since the Company does not acquire precise inventory data from wholesalers, the Company is required to estimate the inventory at wholesalers. The Company believes the lower unit sales reflect a decrease in wholesalers' inventory levels during the first quarter of 2006 compared to an increase in wholesalers' inventory levels during the first quarter of 2005.
The gross margin rate was 80 percent for the quarter ended March 31, 2006 and 83 percent for the first quarter of 2005. The decrease is primarily the result of units carrying an increased inventory cost as they were manufactured pursuant to the November 2005 amendment to the manufacturing agreement with Lilly, offset by the effects of price increases.
The total costs and expenses associated with operating income were $15.9 million and $9.8 million, for the first quarter of 2006 and 2005, respectively. In addition to the $2.1 million increase in cost of sales, research and development increased $1.3 million as the Company continued to support its CMV and HCV development programs and marketing, general and administrative increased $2.6 million related to commercial and other personnel related expenses, share-based compensation, and legal and consulting costs, $0.4 million of which related to the Company's opposition to the attempt by the OGD to change the approach towards making vancomycin hydrochloride capsules bioequivalence decisions.
The Company's effective income tax expense rate was 40.1 percent for the quarter ended March 31, 2006, while the 2005 quarter does not include any income tax expense. Income tax expense includes federal and state income tax at statutory rates and the effects of various permanent differences. The Company anticipates that the annual effective tax rate will be 38.2 percent.
link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060504/nyth060.html?.v=51&printer=1
OUTLOOK:
Looking ahead to 2006
ViroPharma is commenting upon previously announced guidance for the year 2006 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
For the year 2006, ViroPharma expects the following:
-- Net sales are expected to be $160 to $170 million, representing growth
of 27 percent to 35 percent over 2005;
-- Operating income (without the SFAS 123R impact) is expected to grow 10
percent to 20 percent over 2005;
-- SFAS 123R impact to operating income in the range of $3.5 to $4.5
million is not reflected in operating income growth above. Operating
income growth including the impact of SFAS 123R is expected to grow 5
percent to 15 percent over 2005.
Some good news but huge drop in eps. Not too good.... >:(
Bas - that depends. I sold my position yesterday at $10.97 (was long from $12.01) and immediately went short. I got lucky.
I'm curious if anyone saw VPHM trade at 7.69 near the open. I saw it trade only as low as 8.32, which Scottrade also showed as the low, but the tick chart showed a low of 7.70 at 9:31 and a low of 7.69 at 9:31. Later on, Scottrade changed the low to 7.69.
That seems fishy. ::) ??? ::)
Reason that I ask is that I have Target: 7.76 IN PLAY from the Double Top. While I don't ascribe to "knife catching," I was ready to day trade it if the 7.76 target hit. "Evidently" it did, but I never got the chance to play it.
VPHM has had a nice bounce, currently BID 9.24...ASK 9.25 which would have been a nice, quick profit off 7.69.
>:( >:D
Thanks in advance if anyone has any information on the 7.69 print.
thanks MelfElf ;)
analyst update:
VPHM: SG Cowen Ups to Neutral from Underperform; Analyst Notes
Thursday , May 04, 2006 10:19 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: SG Cowen & Co.
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Neutral (from Underperform)
Analyst Comments: The firm sees risk/reward as favorable here.
7.69 $ day low:
Viropharma, Incorporated (nasdaqnm: VPHM) Stock Symbol:
Last Trade: 9.310 Change: -1.660 ( -15.132 %)
Previous Close: 10.970 Today's Open: 8.640
# of Trades: 12,065 Volume: 8,771,700
Avg. # of Trades: 3,225 Avg. Daily Volume: 1,709,430
Bid: 9.310 Bid Size: 1
Ask: 9.310 Ask Size: 1
Day High: 9.370 Day Low: 7.690
52 Week High: 24.360 52 Week Low: 2.070
Market Cap: 638.53M Dividend: N/A
EPS: 1.94 P/E Ratio: 5.600
Quote from: la-onda on May 04, 2006, 10:31:56 AM
7.69 $ day low:
Oliver,
I guess 7.69 was the low, but you had not to blink, to see it. I sure would like to see that on the time & sales. I saw only 8.32, the it rallied into the 8.40s...8.50s...8.60s and on above 9.00.
Thanks.
Would not be buying VPHM anytime soon...
This chart looks brutal.
Melf, not only was that $7.69 bogus, so was the $9.92 close. Looks like ~9.08 was the true close.
btw I covered my short early on at $8.83.
Morningstar reiterated its 5 star rating of VPHM today. It gives it a
fair value of $17 (and a "consider sell" at $20.60). This is what
analyst Karen Anderson wrote today:
"We're maintaining our fair value estimate at $17 per share and model
a recovery in Vancocin sales in future quarters this year. We believe
that the market is confusing the current temporary wholesaler
inventory drawdowns with the threat of generic competition, which we
estimate is still at least two years away.
Our fair value estimate has been affected by both positive and
negative company news. Maribavir, a drug to treat cytomegalovirus in
transplant patients, had impressive results in recent clinical trials,
and we have boosted the drug's probability of approval to 60% as
ViroPharma prepares to begin Phase III trials."
updated chart:
Quote from: Lucas Scott on May 04, 2006, 05:48:19 PM
Melf, not only was that $7.69 bogus, so was the $9.92 close. Looks like ~9.08 was the true close.
Luke,
That's about right. The close of the 3:59PM bar was
9.05. After 9.92 printed at the close, the quote was BID 9.03...ASK 9.04.
There's also another bad tick around 11:40AM, at 8.05, on the intraday chart. VPHM never traded that low. I don't understand in this technical age how those mistakes aren't caught, at least the mistakes on both the open and the close. Especially in a stock that was so heavily traded. Didn't
somebody notice that there's something wrong with this chart?
??? ::)
I downloaded my end of day data from Reuters. They have the low at 7.69 and the close at 9.92, both of which are incorrect, but I guess it will stand. It will be interesting to see where they open VPHM this morning.
analyst update :o
VPHM: Infinium Ups to Outperform from Neutral; Cuts Tgt to $11 vs $15; Analyst Notes
Friday , May 05, 2006 08:48 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Infinium Capital
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Outperform (from Neutral)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $11.00 (-26.67% from $15.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their upgrade.
This rating information was reported by Infinium Group.
&
from the Piper Jaffray analyst report issued this morning...
KEY POINTS:
* Lower-Than-Expected Vancocin Sales Due To Inventory Destocking " But Not
Just A Simple Drawdown. VPHM reported 1Q06 Vancocin revenues of $29.2m,
well below our estimate of $40.6m and Street estimates of $40.2m. This
discrepancy was related to a significant reduction in wholesaler inventory
levels, and what is particularly troubling in this case is that the
magnitude of the reduction could not have been possible given previous
inventory estimates provided by management (i.e., a potential
overestimation of end-user demand). VPHM believes that they underestimated
the number of weeks of inventory in 4Q05 by 2-3 weeks. They now estimate
that there were 6-7 weeks at the end of 4Q05, with a reduction in levels
to approximately 2-3 weeks at the end of 1Q06. The company also noted that
there was likely a further drawdown of inventory in the first two weeks of
April, but that recent ordering patterns have realigned with growth
patterns in IMS data.
* Do We Really Know What Demand For Vancocin Has Been? The gross
miscalculation in inventory levels brings the underlying demand for
Vancocin over the last 5 quarters into question. VPHM provided two
possible explanations for the miscalculation in inventory levels: 1) there
may have been higher-than-expected inventory levels at the time VPHM
acquired Vancocin from Lilly, although we believe that this is likely the
smaller effect, if at all relevant; and 2) overestimation of data in
regards to the number of pills/Rx. While the company has avoided the
possibility that actual prescription growth reported by IMS is inaccurate,
we remain uncertain and believe that direct inventory data may be
necessary to fully explain historical Vancocin demand. In the company's
defense, many data sources confirm the increase in C. difficile-associated
disease (CDAD) incidence and severity. In fact, an article in a recent
major medical journal estimating the quarterly incidence of CDAD in over
100 U.S. hospitals reported that median rates of CDAD increased
significantly from roughly 6 cases per 1000 admissions in 2004 to 7.9-8.4
cases per 1000 admissions in 1H05, generally in the ballpark of the growth
in prescriptions observed during that time period in IMS data.
* Changes To Estimates. We await further data from reported sales and/or
inventory level updates from VPHM to clarify the underlying demand for
Vancocin.
In the interim, we are conservatively moving our estimates
toward the low end of the company's revenue guidance range. Under this
scenario, our price target moves from $13 (methodology based on a sum of
the parts analysis attributing $7 for Vancocin, $2 for cash, and $3.50 for
pipeline) to $12 ($6 for Vancocin, $2 for cash, and $3.50 for the
pipeline), although we note a lower degree of confidence in our new
Vancocin sales estimates. With uncertainty on both the generic situation
and the underlying demand for Vancocin, we remain on the sidelines with
VPHM.
&
RESEARCH ALERT-WBB Securites initiates ViroPharma with "sell"
Reuters 11:59 am May 5, 2006
BOSTON, May 5 (Reuters) - WBB Securities LLC initiated coverage of
ViroPharma Inc. with a "sell" recommendation on Friday after the
company reported lower than expected earnings.
The biotechnology company on Thursday posted earnings substantially
below analysts' expectations, saying wholesalers had reduced their
stocks of its antibiotic Vancocin.
"ViroPharma didn't see that new orders were lagging projected demand
until March of this year," said WBB analyst Stephen Brozak. "This
kind of uncertainty about basic business measures, which drive
projections for everything from raw materials to staffing, points to
a problematic situation."
Quote from: Melf Elf on May 05, 2006, 05:04:16 AM
That's about right. The close of the 3:59PM bar was 9.05. After 9.92 printed at the close, the quote was BID 9.03...ASK 9.04.
I downloaded my end of day data from Reuters. They have the low at 7.69 and the close at 9.92, both of which are incorrect, but I guess it will stand.
Reuters has taken down Thursday's bogus close of 9.92 and now shows the close as
9.05, and the high on Thursday as 9.46. The 7.69 low still stands, but I also think that was inaccurate.
Quote from: la-onda on May 05, 2006, 01:17:27 PM
analyst update :o
Oliver,
Thanks for posting those. Applause. Interesting read, particularly Piper's comment:
"* Do We Really Know What Demand For Vancocin Has Been? The gross
miscalculation in inventory levels brings the underlying demand for
Vancocin over the last 5 quarters into question."
another analyst:
RESEARCH ALERT-WBB Securites initiates ViroPharma with "sell"
9:52a ET May 5, 2006 (Reuters) BOSTON, May 5 (Reuters) - WBB
Securities LLC initiated coverage of ViroPharma Inc. with a "sell"
recommendation on Friday after the company reported lower than
expected earnings.
The biotechnology company on Thursday posted earnings substantially
below analysts' expectations, saying wholesalers had reduced their
stocks of its antibiotic Vancocin.
"ViroPharma didn't see that new orders were lagging projected demand
until March of this year," said WBB analyst Stephen Brozak. "This
kind of uncertainty about basic business measures, which drive
projections for everything from raw materials to staffing, points to
a problematic situation."
but please check the link:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/recomnd.asp?Symbol=US%3aVPHM
please check also:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p61161061606&a=76231351&listNum=1
what would be a TA support for VPHM?
TIA
Oliver
Quote from: la-onda on May 07, 2006, 04:58:16 PM
what would be a TA support for VPHM?
Oliver,
Roughly, $3.50 is next chart support.
Important
9.70 - 9.74 was broken on a weekly closing basis, so VPHM will have to tell us over the next weeks and months if support is going to be anything higher than 3.50 by establishing a base/pattern, then breaking out to the upside.
The six-month rally last year (May-November) from 1.67 to 24.36 (1,358%) was parabolic in nature. The only pullback to speak of was the pullback in August, to
9.74.After the St. Paddy's Day Massacre this year, VPHM found support at
9.70 and put in a Bullish Doji Star Hammer on the weekly chart (below). That produced only a one week rally to 13.20, then the stock faded and took out the key
9.70 - 9.74 support on earnings last week.
Stocks that rally parabolically are at risk for a "Parabolic Return" to the origin of the rally because there was no base buliding along the way. There's no obvious area of "horizontal support" below here until we go all the way back to the late Autumn, 2004 - Spring, 2005 time-frame, the high of which was 3.52.
Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: ViroPharma, Equity Office Properties, General Mills and Dollar Financial Corp.
Monday , May 08, 2006 06:00 ET
CHICAGO, May 08, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Zacks Equity Research highlights ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM) as the Bull of the Day and Equity Office Properties (NYSE:EOP) as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on General Mills (NYSE:GIS) and Dollar Financial Corp. (Nasdaq:DLLR). Full analysis of all four stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676.
Here is a synopsis of all four stocks:
Bull of the Day:
Our Bull of the Day recommendation is for ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM). ViroPharma is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of products that address diseases caused by infectious agents such as a virus or pathogenic bacteria. The company has one approved product, Vancocin Capsules, for the treatment of antibiotic-associated infection, and two mid-stage candidates for viral infections. The stock has been extremely volatile over the past few months. The stock went from over-hyped to under-valued in the course of a few months all based on issues surrounding Vancocin. Our price target is $16 per share.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.965c77cdfbbd0f2073a9d02ec3bfe2efe71ffa2d3b672b12dffacfcb11c90fce
rom: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 8, 2006 5:35 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions are out of this world!!!! irc203
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from: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 8, 2006 5:35 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions are out of this world!!!!
We have a new record for weekly prescriptions! For the week ended
4/28/06, prescriptions totaled 2,552. Prescriptions for the prior
week totaled 2,311.
A big rebound from the Easter holiday. (Jan, you
will need to rescale your charts agsin.)
The wholesalers must be ordering from VPHM like crazy. They certainly
no longer have it in stock!
Quote from: calven on March 29, 2006, 11:41:38 AM
I love VPHM but I just cant see anything happening in the near term without any significant news releases...
So many fresh bagholders that are pissed off and want to sell out of VPHM after the drop....VPHM will need to either release news to eat up their shares or VPHM will need time to "process" the bagholders.
I see 12.30-12.40 as huge resistance - I could be wrong but we can at least agree to disagree.
cal >:D
I still dont like this one at 9.80. This stock reminds me a lot of DORAL (DRL)
Everyone says "BUY its at book value, its undervalued" etc etc etc
"DONT FADE RED or BLACK ON THE ROULETTE WHEEL!!!!!"Huge downward momentum and no capitulation yet....too much risk yet to justify taking a position here. JHMO
Possible fill of that small gap and bagholder at 11.00 - hate to upset people but Id rather post the blunt truth...
What a bunch of idjits! I'd have been betting red. You stay with the streak. There's a sportsbet handicapper on the radio during football season who always goes with the streaks. For example, if Michgan has covered the spread in 4 straight home games, he bets on Michigan to cover the spread again in the 5th home game. The way he puts it, when you bet on the side of the streak "you can be right several times and only wrong once."
Zack Analysis (9 slides) ;)
updated chart from alimovstock
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p47102911837&a=76593257&listNum=1
insiders have bought some shares:
http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=vphm
>:D
Oliver
new updated chart from alimovstock:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p47102911837&a=76593257&listNum=1
VPHM shareholder letter:
http://ccbn.mobular.net/ccbn/7/1433/1574/
From: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 15, 2006 3:21 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescription Numbers!!! irc203
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Weekly Prescriptions totaled 2,490 for the week ended 5/6/06. The
prior week was an all time high of 2,552. 2,490 is a great number, not
a new record, but the second highest number on record. The trend is
your friend.
updated institutional holdings & updated chart
From: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Wed May 17, 2006 3:18 pm
Subject: IMS Monthly Prescription are Sweet irc203
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Prescriptions for the month of April totaled 18,922. A very strong
number for the first month of the quarter. This is the second highest
monthly total on record. The highest monthly total on record is
19,529, which was for March of 2006. We are not much off the record
and we are on trend to higher numbers. I thought it would be a record
for April, but it was not off by much. The difference may be due to
noise. Regardless, the number is very strong, much higher than last
year. And the price increase was in effect for the full month.
From: "irc203" <irc203@...>
Date: Mon May 22, 2006 4:05 pm
Subject: IMS Health Weekly Prescription Numbers Continue to be Strong! irc203
The prescription number for the week ended 5/12/06 is the second
higest number on record and is very close to being a new all time
high. Prescriptions totaled 2,545 for the week ended 5/12/06. The
record high remains 2,552 for the week ended 4/28/06. Prescriptions of
2,490 for the week ended 5/5/06 is now the third highest number on
record. We are seeing very strong numbers compared to last year. This
is excellent news in terms of demand for Vancocin and sales for the
second quarter!
&
Drug cuts hepatitis C virus up to 97pct
Sunday May 21, 12:37 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Viropharma Inc (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) on Sunday said its experimental drug, being developed with Wyeth Inc. (NYSE:WYE - News), cut levels of the hepatitis C virus by up to 97 percent in a small 14-day clinical trial.
The drug was given for 14 days by itself to patients infected with the virus who had not been previously treated with other medicines. The drug is designed to block an enzyme called polymerase that the virus, which can cause fatal liver damage, needs to replicate itself.
Patients in the Phase I trial twice daily received 50 milligram, 100 milligram, 250 milligram, 500 milligram, 1000 milligram, or 1500 milligram oral doses of the medicine, called HCV-796, or received placebos. "Peak antiviral response was achieved at doses of 500 twice daily and higher," Viropharma said in a release, and the medicine was well tolerated. Mean virus levels were cut by 1.4 log to 1.5 log -- or 96 to 97 percent -- in patient groups receiving the three highest doses of the drug.
The amount of viral reduction, however, is less than the greater than 99 percent reduction that has been shown in previous clinical trials of another experimental drug being developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqNM:VRTX - News).
VPHM: Short Interest DN 22.7% to 6.0M in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:24 ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 22.7% to 5,950,984 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.
SYMBOL APRIL MAY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 7,696,507 5,950,984 -1,745,523 -22.68% 3
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,548,640, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
chart with comments from alimovstock from yahoo:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70100370122&a=77742278&listNum=1
;)
update:
ViroPharma Files Supplement to Vancocin Petition for Stay of Action
Wednesday, May 31, 2006 17:30 ET
EXTON, Pa., May 31, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today filed a supplement to its Petition for Stay of Action with the FDA regarding the bioequivalence requirements for abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) that seek to copy Vancocin. The document sets forth legal arguments in support of ViroPharma's strong belief that the decision of the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) to lower the bioequivalence standards for generic copies of Vancocin violated numerous federal statutes and FDA's own regulations with the result that the new standard cannot, as a matter of law, be used in the review or approval of applications for generic versions of Vancocin.
In addition to this filing, ViroPharma intends to supplement the Petition for Stay of Action later this quarter with a filing containing scientific arguments that show that the OGD's new standard is unsupportable as a matter of science.
The filing made by ViroPharma today can be viewed in its entirety on ViroPharma's corporate website, at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition. The document is also being furnished today with the SEC as an exhibit to a Current Report on Form 8-K, and will be available on the EDGAR section of the SEC website as well as the SEC filings page of the 'investing' section of the ViroPharma website. The company also expects that the document will become available on the docket management section of the FDA website within approximately two weeks.
ViroPharma intends to vigorously oppose any approach that does not require rigorous scientific methods including human clinical studies, consistent with good medicine and science. The company also believes that, given the growing number of patients with severe, and possibly life-threatening, C. difficile- associated disease, the appropriate expert advisory groups must validate the scientific and medical appropriateness of the approval standards for a generic locally acting vancomycin capsule product.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease, including death. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic-associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
39 pages document; a must read if you are long:
http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/VancocinLegalSubmisionFINAL.pdf[/b][/color]
chart today:
Today's Candlestick Patterns:
White Candlestick
Bullish Engulfing
BO will come soon:
1)
alimovstock chart analysis (please read carefully):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15522837194&a=78130077&listNum=1
2)
After hours:
Real-Time ECN | Order Book
Get Real-Time ECN for:
VIROPHARMA INC (RT-ECN)
Symbol: VPHM
Last Trade: 10.90 Jun 1
After Hours Change: Up 0.99 (9.99%)
Today's Change: Up 1.17 (12.02%)
Bid: 9.03
Ask: 10.79
Today's Candlestick Patterns:
White Spinning Top
Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: ViroPharma, Tekelec, Opsware and Petrobras
Friday , June 02, 2006 06:00 ET
CHICAGO, Jun 02, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Zacks Equity Research highlights ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM) as the Bull of the Day.
Bull of the Day:
Our Bull of the Day recommendation is for ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM). ViroPharma is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of products that address diseases caused by infectious agents such as a virus or pathogenic bacteria. The company has one approved product, Vancocin Capsules, for the treatment of antibiotic-associated infection, and two mid-stage candidates for viral infections. Recent concerns over a generic alternative to Vancocin and poor inventory management have hampered the stock. Although the above two issues will continue to linger, ViroPharma is trading at a significant discount to its peers. Our target is $16.
9 slides update:
http://www.zacks.com/newsroom/commentary/index_pdf.php?id=3095
or as attachment for downloading:
VPHM and FDA Link:
http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/dockets/06p0124/06p0124.htm
please check bollinger bands, 10.33 has to be broken to get VPHM running again IMO.
any feedback from other board members or Michael ? ;D
cheers
Oliver
Hi Oliver,
I don't have a position in VPHM right now, and while it was nice to see it break into the 10.00 gap on Friday, I was surprised at the lack of volume and price movement on this move. However, as long as it holds 10.00 on a closing basis, it shouldn't have too much difficulty moving back up to fill the gap and get back into the 11.00 range.
Personally I think that VPHM has taken a pretty big credibility hit with their last report, and this could take some time to resolve. The share price still simply does not reflect the fundamentals for this company, especially with the positive news for Maribavir (The Zacks report seemed to hit the nail on the head really, and I'm surprised it didn't have a bigger effect on the share price).
Technically, it had a break of descending resistance on Thursday and arguably an ascending triangle breakout Friday, MACD Histo is positive, and RSI is hitting on 50, so things look short term positive. It also moved clearly above the 13ema (my favourite short term indicator), which has started to turn upwartds, sugggesting a new positive trend. I think that the important factors now are how it reacts to the 50MA and the top of the gap, and also getting MACD back into positive territory. All of these things could potentially happen this week. If volume starts to kick in as it runs to 11, it could have legs, but Friday's action makes me think VPHM has a long battle still ahead of it.
I know you are holding this long term and probably added to your position below 10.00. If so, I doubt we will see the single digits on a closing basis and think this should be a perfectly good long term hold, as the price begins to reflect fundamentals (and future prospects) once again. It may also reflect a decent short term low gain (5-10%) trade as well.
Good luck ;)
Scotsman
chart from alimovstock:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p20806483463&a=78359633&listNum=1
IMS WEEKLY NUMBERS:
IMS Health weekly prescription numbers for the week ended 5/26/06
totaled 2,498 versus 2,394 for the week ended 5/19/05. New scripts
for the week ended 5/26/06 totaled 2,162 versus 2,080 for the week
ended 5/19/06.
Total prescriptions of 2,498 is a very strong number. Even better is
new prescriptions for the week totaling 2,162 versus 2,080 for the
prior week. The incidence of CDAD is appears to be increasing,
although one week is not enough to be certain.
Well, unfortunately VPHM didn't exactly hold 10.00 and is back in the single digits. upside volume needs to kick in in a big way to get this moving, and at this point that may have to wait until some clearly positive indications that VPHM remains on track with its earnings estimates, to restore investor confidence. Again, long term this has got to be a hold (and possibly accumulate) but short term it doesn't seem to be very bullish.
please listen to the conference very carefully:
http://customer.talkpoint.com/GOLD006/061206a_cs/linkdefault.asp?entity=viropharma
1st summarization (quotation):
Excellent CC!!
by: cbenarroch_2000
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 06/14/06 08:09 pm
Msg: 135046 of 135090
- YTD '06 Prescriptions up 30% vs YTD '05. I guess the numbers showed in this board were 100% correct.
- May '06 Prescriptions up 10% over April '06.
- Expect '06 sales much higher than '05.
- Scientific data report out before June 30, 06.
- Gross Margin in 2005 = 86-87%. Expect GM for the 1st half to be a bit lower due to $4.5M payment to Lilly for additional inventory.
- Cost of Good for Vancocin manufactured in the new facility in NY for 2nd half of 06 and forward will be half of the current COG.
- Marib Phase III stem cell to start very soon (3rd quarter) & Phase III solid transplant before the end of 2006. Consider huge markets not only transplants.
- Hepatitis drug: 50-50% in the US with Wyeth, and 15% for VPHM outside the US. Wyeth paying most of the expenses. Expect more details on results of Phase I on the 3rd quarter and start of Phase II before the end of 3rd quarter.
- Main barriers for generics will be two: 1. Manufacturing process took 20 months for Lilly to transfer process from IL to NY (Complex). 2. FDA approval of these manufacturing processes in order to meet the safety and results requirement for the agency.
2nd summarization:
Transcript of COG statement.
by: viking_cajun
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 06/15/06 12:08 am
Msg: 135080 of 135090
This is a transcript from the Goldman conference that just concluded. As best I can, I'm not a spring chicken anymore, I've type a reasonable summary of what was said by Michel de Rosen, CEO of Viropharma.
COG statement: "In fact what happened is Lilly had decided to transfer the manufacture of vancocin even before they decided to sell the commercial rights. So they looked around and chose two companies they believed would do the job well. The chose Alpharma a well known company for the active ingredient and they chose OSG for the commercial manufacturing. And so, we are happy to report, that as of not many weeks ago this tranfer is now successful. We are still using some supplies from Lilly but now we have also started using supplies from the new supply chain Alpharma plus OSG. Our gross margin in 2005 was approx 86 or 87%. Expect our gross margin in the 1st half 2006 to be a little worse because we decided with Lilly to pay Lilly an extra $4.5-million to make sure they would supply us even more than originally anticipated because we wanted to make sure that we would have enough supply. So because of that the gross margin will be slightly worse in the first-half 2006. But, the COG of the new supply chain will be significantly reduced by approximately half. The COG of the new supply chain will be approx half compared to the supply chain of Lilly. Because of that you should expect in the end of 2006 and certainly the whole of 2007 and for 2008 and onwards you should expect the gross margin to be significantly improved. And we have not given a figure there but you can do the calculations knowing the cost of goods are approximately divided by 2."
This is Michel de Rosen's statement when describing one of the barriers to generic introduction of oral vancocin.
Manufacturing barrier to Oral Vancocin. "The API is quite easy to buy, a number of companies provide it. On the other hand, the commerical manufacture is not simple. It is doable a good company can do it. But it just takes some time, there are some complexities, some trade secrets, We have seen this first hand, because we saw that it took approx 20 months for Elli Lilly to transfer successfully the manufacturing from Lilly's Indiana plant to OSG in New York state. And this is Lilly and OSG working collaboratively together. You may find some companies around the world who say they can manufacture vancocin also. But you have to manufacture vancocin in a way that the FDA would consider is appropriate. So this just takes time."
3rd summarization:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=135056
listen to Q&A also carefully !
nice VPHM chart update (quotation):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p43980909090&a=78114813
any comments after listening to the conference is highly appreciated
cheers
Oliver
New Record! IMS Health Monthly
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 06/14/06 09:24 am
Msg: 134857 of 135134
Prescriptions totaled 20,851 for the month of May eclipsing the old record of 18,922 set in April. The second quarter is shaping up to be a record quarter!
New prescriptions for May totaled 17,681 which exceeds the new prescriptions of April which totaled 16,219.
awesome >:D >:D
VPHM @ Russell 3000 soon, funds have to buy VPHM :D
http://www.russell.com/US/Indexes/US/Reconstitution/recon_additions.asp
ViroPharma Selected to Join NASDAQ Global Select Market
Monday June 26, 12:00 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., June 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that it was selected for listing on the NASDAQ Global Select Market which is expected to be implemented by NASDAQ on July 3, 2006. Standards for initial inclusion in the NASDAQ Global Select Market will have financial and liquidity requirements that are higher than those of any other market in the world.
"I am extremely pleased to announce that ViroPharma has met the stringent standards for inclusion into the NASDAQ Global Select Market; we certainly feel this inclusion is demonstrative of our excellent financial position and view this as another significant positive development in ViroPharma's history," stated Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer.
Effective on July 3rd, NASDAQ-listed companies will be classified under three listing tiers - NASDAQ Global Select Market, NASDAQ Global Market, and NASDAQ Capital Market. NASDAQ also plans to launch indexes based on these new tiers.
"ViroPharma is an example of an industry leader that has achieved superior listing standards, which clearly defines the essence of the NASDAQ Global Select Market," said Bruce Aust, Executive Vice President, NASDAQ's Corporate Client Group. "NASDAQ is focused on leading a race to the top in terms of listing qualifications. In recognizing these companies, we are highlighting their achievement in meeting the requirements to be included in the market with the highest listing standards in the world," added Mr. Aust.
NASDAQ announced the new three-tier listing classification in February 2006. All three market tiers will maintain rigorous listing and corporate governance standards. For additional information about the NASDAQ Global Select Market, please go to: http://www.nasdaq.com/GlobalSelect.
short interest update:
news out:
ViroPharma Announces Preclinical Data Supporting Utility of Non-Toxigenic Clostridium Difficile Against Epidemic Strain
Tuesday , June 27, 2006 10:31 ET
EXTON, Pa., June 27, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced the presentation of new data from preclinical studies of non-toxigenic Clostridium difficile at the 5th International Meeting on the Molecular Biology and Pathogenesis of Clostridia (ClostPath), held from June 21st through 25th in Nottingham, UK. These data showed NTCD to be protective against the currently circulating hypervirulent "BI" strain of C. difficile in a hamster model. Additional data presented during the meeting support the protection data by demonstrating that NTCD displays higher adherence to human mucosal cells compared to the BI strain and to traditional strains of C. difficile.
"These data are important, as they demonstrate that non-toxigenic C. difficile protects in an animal model against the dangerous hypervirulent strain of C. difficile that appears to be responsible for an epidemic of C. difficile-associated disease (CDAD) that is spreading throughout the U.S., Canada, and Europe," commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "These data are not only significant, but essential as current and future therapies would need to consider effectiveness against this hypervirulent strain, which is associated with a substantial increase in the severity of CDAD in humans."
"These new adherence data are particularly important since intestinal mucosal cell adhesion is a potential virulence factor of the BI strain," added Dale Gerding, M.D., associate chief of staff for research at the Hines VA Hospital. "The superior adherence of NTCD strain M3 compared to the hypervirulent BI strains also further corroborates the finding that it is highly protective in an animal model for CDAD against the BI strains. The high level of protection afforded by NTCD against this virulent epidemic strain in preclinical models of CDAD is encouraging for the development of this new therapeutic approach."
Protection data were described in an abstract entitled, "Non-Toxigenic Clostridium Difficile (CD) Protects Hamsters against Historic and Epidemic Toxigenic 'BI' Strains," by K.J. Nagaro et al. In this study, the efficacy of NTCD in preventing disease in hamsters challenged with toxigenic BI strains was assessed. Animals were orally inoculated with one of two strains of NTCD (REA types M3 and T7) and then challenged with either a historic BI strain (BI1) or the BI strain causing the current epidemic (BI6), both of which have been previously shown to be 100% fatal in this model. Inoculation with M3 prevented fatal CDAD in 9 out of 10 hamsters challenged with BI6 (p<0.0003) and 10 of 10 challenged with BI1 (p<0.00005). Inoculation with T7 prevented fatal disease in 5 of 10 hamsters challenged with BI6 (p<0.02), and 10 of 10 challenged with BI1 (p<0.00005). The authors concluded that colonization with NTCD, particularly type M3, is highly effective in preventing CDAD in hamsters caused by REA group BI strains, and provides a novel approach with the potential to prevent CDAD caused by the new epidemic strains in humans.
The adherence data were described in an abstract entitled, "Hypervirulent Epidemic Strains Of Clostridium Difficile Have Altered Host Cell Adherence And Protein Expression," by G. Vedantam et al. This study tested the hypothesis that increased adherence of the epidemic BI strain to mucosal lining contributes to the enhanced virulence of this strain. The results showed that an NTCD strain, REA type M3, displayed the highest adherence to Caco-2 human intestinal epithelial cells (a cell line that when grown in cell culture differentiates and assumes properties of intestinal mucosa cells), followed by BI strains including the circulating hypervirulent strains (BI6, BI8 and BI17). Toxigenic, non-epidemic strains showed the lowest adherence. Epidemic strains have enhanced adherence to human epithelial cells which is associated with an increased expression of surface layer proteins which may allow them to predominate in their environment and cause more severe disease outcomes that are not solely toxin-related. The high level of adherence demonstrated by the NTCD M3 strain corroborates the high levels of protection observed against BI strain challenge in the hamster model.
ViroPharma entered into a licensing agreement in February of 2006 with Dr. Gerding for the rights to develop non-toxigenic strains of C. difficile, including the M3 strain, for the treatment and prevention of CDAD. ViroPharma plans to initially focus its efforts on the opportunity to prevent recurrence of CDAD following treatment with Vancocin.
IMS Health May 2006 Sales
[/color]
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 06/29/06 09:37 am
Msg: 137062 of 137290
Monthly sales from wholesalers to pharmacies for the month of May totaled $15,676,630, another new record for average weekly sales. April sales totaled $15,482,228. We have 2 very strong monthly sales numbers. It appears that the 2nd quarter is going to establish a new record Vancocin sales for VPHM.Is the chart a bullish three inside up candle pattern ??
VPHM suddenly starting to look a little better to me...not a buyer yet but I am finally watching it for a possible entry. I like the mystery volume today...
Volume not a mystery. VPHM added to the Russell 3000 index. The index is reconstituted once a year. You can see similar volume spikes on other stocks that got added, like BAMM, DVW, LDSH for example.
Here is the preliminary list of additions:
http://www.russell.com/US/Indexes/US/Reconstitution/recon_additions.asp
fyi:
ViroPharma Submits Scientific Arguments in Supplement to Vancocin Petition for Stay of Action
Friday , June 30, 2006 18:21 ET
EXTON, Pa., June 30, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today submitted a supplement to its Petition for Stay of Action with the FDA regarding the bioequivalence requirements for abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) that seek to copy Vancocin capsules. The document sets forth scientific arguments supporting ViroPharma's strong belief that the decision of the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) to modify the bioequivalence standards for generic copies of Vancocin capsules is scientifically flawed.
The submission made by ViroPharma will be available in its entirety later today on ViroPharma's corporate website, at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition. The document will also be furnished with the SEC as an exhibit to a Current Report on Form 8-K, and will be available on the EDGAR section of the SEC website as well as the SEC filings page of the 'investing' section of the ViroPharma website. The company also expects that the document will become available on the docket management section of the FDA website within approximately two weeks.
The Company believes that its latest submission demonstrates that the OGD's proposal for demonstrating bioequivalence of a generic version of Vancocin capsules using only in vitro dissolution testing instead of human clinical trials is not justifiable, and presents an unacceptably high risk of approving a bioinequivalent product. Because Vancocin treats two potentially life-threatening diseases, Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD) and enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus, anything less than an in vivo demonstration of bioequivalence in those with CDAD may expose patients to unnecessary risk and raise significant clinical and public health concerns.
Previously, on May 31, 2006, ViroPharma filed a supplement describing its strong belief that the OGD's decision to lower the bioequivalence standards for generic copies of Vancocin violated numerous federal statutes in addition to the FDA's own regulations with the result that the new standard cannot, as a matter of law, be used in the review or approval of applications for generic versions of Vancocin.
ViroPharma intends to continue to vigorously oppose any approach that does not require rigorous scientific methods including human clinical studies, consistent with good medicine and science. The company also believes that, given the growing number of patients with severe, and possibly life-threatening, CDAD, the appropriate expert advisory groups must validate the scientific and medical appropriateness of the approval standards for a generic locally acting vancomycin capsule product.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease, including death. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic-associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
ViroPharma wants to stop FDA from easing generics rules
Monday , July 03, 2006 16:17 ET
By Linda Loyd
Jul 03, 2006 (The Philadelphia Inquirer - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News via COMTEX) -- ViroPharma Inc. said today it has submitted a supplement to its petition to try to stop the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from allowing lower-cost generic copies to be made of its antibiotic Vancocin based solely on laboratory studies.
The Exton company, in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, said it believes that the FDA's proposal for evaluating generic drugs using only laboratory testing instead of human clinical trials should not be applicable to Vancocin capsules, and presents an "unacceptably high risk" of approving a product that is not bioequivalent.
ViroPharma filed a petition to stay the FDA's action in March, and now has filed a supplement document to oppose the change, calling it "scientifically flawed."
Vancocin is ViroPharma's biggest revenue source and accounted for $125.9 million of the company's $132.4 million in revenue in 2005.
ViroPharma shares fell 33 percent in March on investor concern that Vancocin could face generic competition sooner than expected. Investors had assumed Vancocin sales would be protected until 2010. Shares were unchanged at $8.62 in early afternoon trading.
The company said the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs has changed its approach and may waive a requirement that generic-drug makers conduct clinical trials to establish "bioequivalence" for certain gastrointestinal drugs like Vancocin. Doing so would allow firms to perform simpler tests that could speed lower-cost generic versions to market.
ViroPharma bought Vancocin from Eli Lilly & Co. in 2004, and has projected continued sales growth because Vancocin is the key treatment for Clostridium difficile, a sometimes-deadly bacterium that has recently become more virulent and widespread.
Biotechs: Cowen Likes Fundamentals, Favors Large Caps
Friday , July 07, 2006 09:30 ET
Cowen & Co. expects the "earnings-driven" firms in their coverage will post strong Q2 results. For the industry Cowen notes "strong fundamentals make a prolonged downturn unlikely." The firm sees "full pipelines, good earnings growth and visibility, multiple new product launches, and continued pricing power." Cowen favors large caps, specifically AMGN, BIIB, CEPH, GENZ, and GILD. Select mid- and small cap recommendations include ALTH, ALXN, BMRN, CRXX, ENCY, KERX, ONXX, PANC, and VRTX. Cowen says avoid AMLN, IDIX, and IMCL.
+ AMGN, BIIB, CEPH, DNA, GILD, ILMN and VPHM: Cowen says these are their favorites to beat the consensus in Q2.
-- GENZ, ICOS, IMCL, MEDI and UTHR: Cowen sees these names producing Q2 results that are at least in line.
(-) CIPH, CVTX, NTMD, and TRCA: Cowen advises caution on these names due to Q2 expectations.
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.601a392ff1b97f4d35552985973ecfd25c20771b0aa9ab7d689b68e965792cf6
yahoo board quotation:
Crunching data from mid june CCs
[/color][/b]
by: satrasal
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 07/11/06 07:22 am
Msg: 138556 of 138558
Scrip growth:Scrip growth (first 5 months 2006 over first 5 2005 = 30%
May 06 monthly sequential scrip growth over april 2006 = 10% surge in scrips.
CDAD progression data:CDC reports greater cdad incidence of 20% spread to new populations. CDAD identified now in 20 states (priorly 12) A new strain has emerged killing patients in 4 days as opposed to 3 weeks.
Alternatives: decreasing effectiveness of competitor metronidazol to 62% efficacy from 85% efficacy.
Revs:q1 05 21 mil
q2 05 29 mil
q3 05 36 mil
q4 05 40 mil
q1 06 29 mil
Price increases in 2005 were 17% in dec 04, 26% in March 05, 22% in Aug 05 cumulatively 80% over 2004.
Succesive increases led to continuous wholesaler overstocking.
The Aug wholesaler price increase $446 (20 capsules) from $368 should have taken q4 revs to more than 43 mil from the q3 36 mil if wholesalers were using just-in-time inventory.
VPHM only hit 40 mil in Q4. Obviously wholesalers had been stockpiling. Presumably they started stockpiling in q1 05 after the dec 04 price increase as they anticipated the march05 second price increase.
The question is how much was stockpiled throughout 2005 and how much is left in the pipeline given 2006 Jan-May scrip growth of 30% over 2005.
2004 revs were 54 mil, 2005 revs 126 mil
At 2005 yoy scrip growth of 35% and flat pricing we should have 2005 revs of 73 mil.
We have 53 mil in 2005 from pricing increases and stockpiles.
If we factor in the price increases we get roughly 110 mil 2005 revs. This suggests we had 16 mil excess inventory- possibly 6 weeks of overhang at 2005 demand levels.
Now given the 2006 scrip growth of 30% (comparing jan to may for 2005 and 2006), no reason to stockpile and the sudden monthly 10% surge in scrips in May 2006.... what do you think revs should be for Q1 2006 and q2 2006.
If we take Q1 2005 (21 mil) and wash out the first 17% price increase we get 18 mil. We can assume this is at zero growth. Factor in all 3 price increases and we should have Q1 2006 at 32 mil. (actual number was 29 mil) Factor in 30% scrip growth and we have 42 mil. So a minimum 13 mil overhang got worked off on Q1. There was a 3 mil overhang going into Q2.
Q2 2006 has to be 39 mil revs at a minimum.
Analsyt projections are 42 mil.
Given the May scrips spike and the 3 mil overhang we will likely exceed it.
(Side note: In Nov 2005 analysts were projecting another 25% price increase. It didnt happen and hasn't happened. Instead VPHM price moved from 24 to 16 in Nov 2005 and into the dec 12 10 mil offering at $16.75. Money moved back in after dec but not convincingly. VpHm was in distribution after a yearlong stockpile. We churned from Nov05 to March06 when the OGD news hit.)
Margins:Margins are down to 80% due to an extra payment to Lilly of approx 2.2 mil per q to ensure increased supply of Vanc.
However, new supply chain costs (with alibaba/ofg) reduce cost of sales to 50% of current costs.
So while short term margins are at 80%, margins for full year 2006 will be much hihger. You do the math. Product costs were 13%, short term Lilly extra cost took it to 19%, and they expect long term product costs to drop to 7%. Margins in q406 will be 93% since Lilly is only manufacturing thru sept 2006.
Also, VPHM has already begun to use product from Alibaba/OFG in q2 itself- perhaps Alibaba came online earlier than anticipated; and/or Lilly is sold out despite the extra supply contracted for.
OGD submissions: Apart from the fact that OGD violated multiple laws, it specifically violated guidelines designating vancocin-like compunds as excluded from bio-equivalent generics.
Current position: No debt, 156 mil cash, 176 mil working capital, cash flow positive for last 5 Qs, tax rate of approx 39% for 2006 (0% for 2005)
ViroPharma to Discuss Scientific Supplement to Petition for Stay of Action Regarding Generic Vancocin on July 13, 2006
Wednesday, July 12, 2006 15:01 ET
EXTON, Pa., July 12, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) will host a conference call and live audio webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, July 13th to discuss the recent scientific supplement to their pending petition for Stay of Action with the FDA regarding the bioequivalence requirements for abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) that seek to copy Vancocin capsules.
The live webcast of the conference call will be accessible via ViroPharma's corporate website at http://www.viropharma.com. An audio archive will be available at the same address until July 28, 2006. To participate in the conference call, please dial (800) 391-2548 (domestic) and (302) 709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
&
Piper Jaffray & Co. - What do They Know
by: Dow18K
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 07/12/06 10:44 pm
Msg: 138901 of 138939
VPHM :VPHM Posts Its Scientific Arguments To FDA
2006-07-05 02:46 (New York)
Piper Jaffray & Co.
Hot Comment
July 5, 2006
ViroPharma Incorporated (VPHM - $8.66)
Market Perform Volatility: High
Health Care
VPHM Posts Its Scientific Arguments To FDA
Thomas Wei, Senior Research Analyst
212 284-9305,
[email protected]Gur A. Roshwalb, M.D., Research Analyst
212-284-9314,
[email protected]KEY POINTS:
Intriguing scientific arguments made by VPHM, but Vancocin generic uncertainty
still remains a near-term overhang.
* VPHM's Scientific Arguments Challenges Dissolution Testing For Vancocin
Generic. VPHM published its scientific supplement to its stay of action
regarding the recent opinion from the Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) to allow
simple dissolution testing for the approval of a generic Vancocin in lieu of
full scale clinical trials. While VPHM outlines several arguments, we
believe that the company's strongest argument is its attack against the
assumption that Vancocin is rapidly dissolving.
* Attacking The Assumption Of Rapid Dissolution - Two Part Argument. The core
premise of waiving full scale clinical trials for a generic is that the drug
in question needs to be rapidly dissolving, which the FDA defines as 85%
dissolved under three different pH settings within 30 minutes. VPHM revealed
for the first time the actual data for Vancocin dissolution at the three
different pH setting required under the waiver for bioequivalence. We were
surprised to learn that Vancocin may not be rapidly dissolving under all
conditions required by the FDA and are now perplexed how the FDA arrived at
its conclusion that Vancocin was eligible for a clinical trial waiver.
Second, VPHM notes that the dissolution methodology suggested is meant for
healthy individuals and points out that patients infected with C. difficile-
associated disease (CDAD) have both different intestinal pHs, some out of
the range suggested for dissolution testing by the FDA, and also potentially
accelerated different gastric emptying and transit rates relative to a
healthy adult (i.e. the 30 minutes used in dissolution testing at a given pH
may be too long to apply to patients with hypermotility due to CDAD). The
company points to anecdotal evidence that patients with CDAD have found
incompletely dissolved pills in stool samples. While we believe that this is
potentially a valid argument, we note that a quick literature search did not
reveal any comprehensive studies on the rate of gastric emptying or transit
in CDAD patients, and as such, the company may need to generate data to
support its argument that the residence time of Vancocin in the stomach is
too short or too variable to allow for the dissolution study approach. We
also remain uncertain how the FDA will view the fact that the target of drug
activity is the colon, which would allow time for transit and dissolution
through both the stomach and the small intestine.
* Lack Of Insight Into OGD Decision Make Analysis Difficult. It remains
difficult to determine how the FDA will receive these arguments, as the
basis for the change in stance by OGD is still unknown. We believe a
response from the FDA on VPHM's petition could occur as early as year-end
2006. If VPHM is unsuccessful in its arguments, it may be possible for
generics to enter the market as early as 2008.
PRICE TARGET AND JUSTIFICATION:
Our current $12 price target is based on sum-of-the-parts analysis: $6 for
Vancocin + $2 for cash + $3.50 for pipeline.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE:
Risks include but are not limited to: 1) Vancocin competition, and 2) failures
in maribavir and/or HCV programs.
Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: ViroPharma, Energy Conversion Devices, D.R. Horton and First Data Corp.
Friday , July 14, 2006 06:00 ET
CHICAGO, Jul 14, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Zacks Equity Research highlights ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM) as the Bull of the Day and Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq:ENER) as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) and First Data Corp. (NYSE:FDC). Full analysis of all four stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676.
Here is a synopsis of all four stocks:
Bull of the Day:
Our Bull of the Day recommendation is for ViroPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM), a pharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of products that address diseases caused by infectious agents such as a virus or pathogenic bacteria. The company has one approved product, Vancocin Capsules, for the treatment of antibiotic-associated infection, and two mid-stage candidates for viral infections. Recent concerns over a generic alternative to Vancocin and poor inventory management have hampered the stock. Although the above two issues will continue to linger, ViroPharma is trading at a significant discount to its peers. Our target is $16. DOWNLOAD the 9 slides:
http://www.zacks.com/newsroom/commentary/index_pdf.php?id=3290
ViroPharma "buy"
Friday, July 14, 2006 11:06:18 AM ET
Lazard Capital
NEW YORK, July 14 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital maintain their "buy" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM).
The target price is set to $21.
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1319257.html
>:D
Final washout today IMO
ViroPharma downgraded to "underperform"
Tuesday, July 18, 2006 10:41:24 AM ET
Infinium Securities
NEW YORK, July 18 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Infinium Securities downgrade ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM) from "outperform" to "underperform." The target price has been reduced from $11 to $6.5.
>:(
VPHM seems no to recover, was Infinium the short player?
30 minutes after VPHM has published their earings date ?
Just a few days ago after the 16$ and 21 $ rating?
Just read the ZAck report I have posted earlier ;D
nachtigall ick hör dir trapsen
8)
cheers
Oliver
Quote from: la-onda on July 18, 2006, 10:40:53 AM
Final washout today IMO
Those are my thoughts also, Oliver. I'm back in at 7.31. Nice recovery on higher volume. Let's see this close in the green to add some validity to our case. :) Good luck!
fyi:
Infinium Securities downgrades ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) to Underperform
07-18-2006 09:50:44 AM
Infinium Securities downgrades ViroPharma Inc. (Nasdaq: VPHM) from Outperform to Underperform and cuts its price target from $11 to $6.50. The firm said they have recently confirmed that Strides is developing a generic version of Vancocin, in addition to Akorn/Cipla. In addition, we believe that Sandoz will also attempt to enter the U.S. market.
link: http://www.streetinsider.com/news.php?st=p&id=1039064
VPHM UP alreday in AH >:D >:D >:D
good luck to all VPHM shareholders
have we seen the bottom ;D ?
VPHM $ 7.80
ViroPharma Inc. 0.05
Shares Short 4,072,241
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 2.7
Short % of Float 6.00 %
Shares Short - Prior 5,950,984
Short % Increase / Decrease -31.57 %
Squeeze Ranking™ -6
% from 52-Wk HIGH ( 24.36 ) -212.31 %
% from 52-Wk LOW ( 7.07 ) 9.36 %
% from 200-Day MA ( 13.29 ) -70.38 %
% from 50-Day MA ( 8.76 ) -12.31 %
Price % Change (52-Wk) -35.04 %
Trading Volume - Today 809,925
Trading Volume - Average 1,509,375
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 53.66 %
Total Shares - Float 67,860,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 68,587,608
% Held by Insiders 12.02 %
% Held by Institutions 59.10 %
Market Cap 534,983,355
EPS 1.79
PE Ratio 4.30
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
SI Record Date 2006-Jun
Data Provided Without Warranty
shorts and chart update 8)
anybody also else invested ?
I'm still stuck here. Thanks for the updates la-onda.
I'm still with you, Oliver. Took profits last week but bought back in again. Wish volume would pick up more but I'm liking the price action up to now.
chart update ;D
nice day for VPHM >:D >:D >:D
fyi:
1)
14-Aug-06
14:50 VPHM ViroPharma: Upcomimg catalysts in addition to HCV-796
phase Ib results - Thomas Weisel (8.62 +0.33) -Update-
Thomas Weisel says that in addition to the HCV-796 phase Ib results
this quarter, VPHM is moving its pipeline forward with the
initiation of a phase III trial for maribavir in stem cell
transplants expected in September and in solid organ transplants in
4Q06. In addition, firm says the co has continually stated that it
intends to add at least one additional value driver this year, which
could represent upside to current ests. Finally, firm believes any
positive update from the ongoing dispute with the Office of Generic
Drugs could lift a significant overhang.
2)
ViroPharma and Wyeth Announce Achievement of Proof of Concept Milestone for HCV-796
- Companies Preparing to Initiate Phase 2 Clinical Evaluation -
EXTON, Pa. and COLLEGEVILLE, Pa., Aug. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) and Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) today announced that while the analysis of data from their Phase 1b study of HCV-796, an investigational oral non-nucleoside hepatitis C virus (HCV) polymerase inhibitor, in combination with pegylated interferon, is still ongoing, data analyzed to date indicate that HCV-796 has achieved a "proof of concept" milestone under the companies' agreements. The companies expect that preliminary data from the Phase 1b study will be available for release by the end of August 2006. Based upon the preliminary data reviewed to date, ViroPharma and Wyeth are preparing to initiate Phase 2 combination studies of HCV-796. The companies expect to begin dosing patients in the Phase 2 study in the fourth quarter of 2006.
In connection with meeting the proof of concept milestone, ViroPharma will issue to Wyeth 981,836 shares of ViroPharma's common stock for a purchase price of Ten Million Dollars ($10,000,000), which represents the last of three stock purchases outlined in the companies' agreements. The price per share for the stock was based on a premium to a trailing average price.
"ViroPharma and Wyeth have been partners in hepatitis C antiviral development since 1999; through the years, our goal has been to identify, develop and eventually market drugs to treat hepatitis C patients," said Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "HCV-796 is the most promising compound we have developed together to date, and we look forward to announcing the Phase 1b data later this month. The achievement of this milestone and progression toward Phase 2 clinical trials marks an exciting time for us, and a promising opportunity for patients with HCV."
"With HCV-796, we now have for the first time in our collaboration a unique compound with a novel mechanism of action that has achieved proof of concept in combination with pegylated interferon," commented Robert Ruffolo, Ph.D., Wyeth Pharmaceutical's president of research. "We are excited to reach this milestone and to be collaborating with ViroPharma to move this promising compound toward Phase 2 trials."
In December 1999, ViroPharma and Wyeth entered into an alliance to develop and commercialize ViroPharma's lead small molecule antiviral drug candidates for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to discover, develop and commercialize additional novel inhibitors of HCV. In this agreement, Wyeth agreed to purchase shares of ViroPharma's common stock at the time of completion of certain product development milestones. Under rules promulgated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, ViroPharma is required to publicly file, via Form 8-K, the fact that common stock is being issued in connection with the achievement of the proof of concept milestone.
>:D >:D >:D
awesome....
well, the bulls seems to have starteted to take the control again................
>:D 8)
quotation from yahoo board (thanks alimovstock!):
I was very pleased with todays price action after yesterdays rally. First of all the price still closed above the top bollenger band again today. The top of the bollenger band today was at $9.41. This is a sign of great strength, since typically the PPS normally tries to find itself within the parameters of the Bol' band. This also assure that tomorrow's bollenger band will continue to expand. Todays volume for the most part was also very light compared to yesterday. That always a good sign of some slight profit taking. I am not sure what to make of the AH's info because its is contradictory from different sources. I do see on my streamer chart that there were some significant transactions. Today also marks the first day that MACD completely crossed over the centerline. The fast on the MACD had for two day, but it has completely cleared into positive territory. The MACD histogram also made a higher peak than yesterdays bar. Todays slight decline also did help relief some pressure from the fast stochastics. Yesterday this indicator was showing that it was fairly overbought, I think it was in the high 90's. With todays price action we were able to bring it down to 83. The MFI also increased today. It was at 63 yesterday, and now we are at 68. This would definately be considered bullish once it is over 50. Now the million dollar question is whats next. It hard to say if there will be a further pullback. One thing to keep in mind is that tomorrow is options expiration. I believe the MAX Pain PPS is set at 10. Under options expirations, there is some mysterious magnetism to draw the PPS to that threshold. I am not sure if it is manipulation because the option writers benefit the most at that PPS. So don't be suprised if thats were we end up tomorrow. Bottom line, I am not worried about the next few days. It is quite apparent the trend has changed, and the trend is now the longs friend. Here is the chart from yesterday, you can refer these comments to that. I will probably make an updated chart for the weekend tomorrow. The weekly chart also has shown some nice improvements.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09497766618&a=81924447&listNum=1
Hey, La -Honda and fellowholders:
Good news for VPHM.
Upgraded by Cowens & Co. from neutral to outperform.
Today's opening left a gap between 10.09 and 10.70 :-\
On the other hand , gone up over 11, closing a previous gap left on May 3rd. >:D
jorgegr
>:D thanks Jorgegr >:D
24-Aug-06
08:35 VPHM ViroPharma upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen
and Co (10.09 )
Cowen and Co upgrades VPHM to Outperform from Neutral saying they
underestimated VPHM's ability to sustain L.T profitability. The firm
says VPHM has made a compelling case against dissolution studies for
Vancocin ANDAs, and they believe Vancocin's decline will be slower
than they initially anticipated. The firm says Maribavir is likely
to become standard of care for C.M.V prevention in transplant
patients starting in 2009. In addition, they believe investors
receive the added benefits of HCV796 data expected within the next
couple of weeks. The firm expects VPHM shares to outperform the
market by 30%+ over the next 12 months.
next weeks will be wonderful don´t miss the train IMO 8)
Dear Board members, now it is time for invest IMO.
All the reasons are posted already.....
is anybody else still invested ??
cheers
Oliver
ViroPharma Benefits From Viral Marketing
ViroPharma (VPHM: Nasdaq)
By Cowen & Co. ($10.09, Aug. 24, 2006)
WE BELIEVE WE HAVE UNDERESTIMATED ViroPharma's ability to sustain
long-term profitability and are upgrading to Outperform from Neutral.
ViroPharma is a pharmaceutical company with a product portfolio and
pipeline focused on infectious diseases.
While considerable interest once lay in its program with Sanofi and
Aventis for Picovir to treat viral infections such as the common
cold, safety concerns resulted in a nonapprovable letter from the
U.S. Food and Drug Administration in June 2002, leaving the company
struggling. However, ViroPharma vaulted to profitability with the
acquisition of oral Vancocin from Eli Lilly in November 2004.
Oral Vancocin is approved for the treatment of antibiotic-associated
pseudomembranous colitis [inflammation of the large intestine] due
to Clostridium difficile [intestinal bacteria] and for enterocolitis
[bacterial infection of the lining of the small intestine] caused by
Staphylococcus aureus [bacterial soft-tissue infection].
Shortly after the product acquisition, oral Vancocin prescriptions
began to demonstrate impressive growth, and ViroPharma implemented
successive price increases, raising the price by 47%. Additional
prescription growth and price increases should transform Vancocin
from a $40 million product in 2003 to one with $200 million peak
sales potential.
The FDA's Office of Generic Drugs recently suggested a path for
generic Vancocin entrants that would include a waiver of
bioequivalence for Vancocin ANDA, which implies that lengthy head-to-
head noninferiority studies may not be required.
However, ViroPharma has made a compelling case against dissolution
studies for Vancocin abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs), and
we believe Vancocin's decline will be slower than we initially
anticipated.
Maribavir is likely to become standard of care for CMV [the
cytomegalovirus infects allogeneic bone marrow and solid organ-
transplant patients] prevention in transplant patients starting in
2009.
Additionally, we believe investors receive a free call option on
HCV796 data expected within the next couple of weeks. [HCV796 is a
non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor being co-developed with Wyeth
Pharmaceuticals to treat chronic hepatitis C infection.]
Top-line results from the Phase Ib study of HCV796 plus PEG-IFN are
expected shortly. [Pegylated interferon, or PEG-IFN, reduces viral
load and is the standard of care for treating hepatitis C.] For the
first time, our HCV consultants have pointed to HCV796 as a
promising drug for HCV.
ViroPharma's scientific arguments against the Office of Generic
Drugs' decision to permit Vancocin ANDAs on the basis of dissolution
data are compelling to us, former OGD staff and dissolution experts.
We conclude that dissolution science is not yet sufficient to allow
a waiver of bioequivalence and bioavailability for any drug, let
alone one as complex as Vancocin.
We expect the dissolution issue to remain in a state of limbo for a
couple of years at the FDA, which would prolong Vancocin's market
exclusivity, and we are therefore raising our outer-year Vancocin
estimates.
Stem-cell-transplant experts were impressed by the strength of the
Phase II maribavir data, and expect that it will be replicated in
the upcoming Phase III trials. They believe maribavir has the
potential to become the new standard of care for CMV prevention,
which we estimate to be a $200 million opportunity in the U.S.
alone. We are adding maribavir to our ViroPharma model.
HCV-796 for HCV is being developed in collaboration with Wyeth, and
pleconoril, for treatment of the common cold, is licensed to
Schering-Plough. With strong cash flow, and profitability that
should be sustained over the long term by a promising pipeline, we
recommend purchase of ViroPharma.
Trading at just 10 times our near-term and outer-year earnings-per-
share estimates, we expect ViroPharma shares to outperform the
market by 30% or more over the next 12 months.
-- Joshua Schimmer, M.D.
yippiieeeee; up 10% aftermarket >:D >:D >:D
ViroPharma Announces Positive Data from Phase 1b Combination Study of HCV-796 and Pegylated Interferon in Hepatitis C PatientsMonday August 28, 5:30 pm ET
- Combination Therapy Produces Significant Reductions in Virus Levels -
- Company to Host Conference Call to Discuss Clinical Results at 9:00 A.M. ET Tomorrow -
EXTON, Pa., Aug. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced preliminary data from a Phase 1b study of HCV-796, a unique, orally dosed hepatitis C virus (HCV) polymerase inhibitor being co-developed with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - News). Preliminary antiviral data are available in the dose range of 100 mg BID to 1,000 mg BID of HCV-796 dosed over a 14-day period in combination with pegylated interferon alfa-2b.
These combination data demonstrate antiviral effects of HCV-796 across multiple genotypes of hepatitis C virus, in treatment-naive adult subjects with chronic hepatitis C infection. Across all dose groups, the combination of HCV-796 and pegylated interferon produced a mean viral reduction of between 3.3 and 3.5 log10 (99.95 percent to 99.97 percent) after 14 days of treatment compared to 1.7 log10 with pegylated interferon alone. During the treatment period, there was no evidence of viral rebound with the combination therapy relative to pegylated interferon alone. No dose-limiting toxicities were seen and although safety data remain blinded, tolerability was consistent with that expected from pegylated interferon.
"These data are clearly very promising as HCV-796 in combination with pegylated interferon appears highly potent with substantial antiviral activity across all doses tested," commented Colin Broom, ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "To date we have not identified any dose-limiting toxicities with HCV-796 and plan to initiate Phase 2 with the 500 mg BID dose, to be followed by further evaluation of the dose response."
Phase 1b Clinical Trial Description
This 14-day randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, sequential-group study of ascending multiple doses enrolled subjects with chronic HCV infection who were naive to treatment. Subjects were enrolled in sequential, ascending dose cohorts with a target of 16 subjects (12 subjects receiving HCV-796 and 4 receiving placebo in each cohort). The first cohorts assessed the effect of HCV-796 as monotherapy compared to placebo (data from which were released on November 10, 2005). Subsequent cohorts were comprised of subjects who received pegylated interferon alfa-2b (PEG-Intron; 1.5 ug/kg/dose) on days -1 and 7 in combination with either placebo or HCV-796 (100 mg, 250 mg, 500 mg or 1000 mg) every 12 hours, from days 1 to 14. Sixty-four percent of patients in the combination therapy cohorts were infected with HCV genotype 1. The mean viral load for each treatment group at study entry was >6.0 log10 IU/ml HCV RNA.
Phase 1b Preliminary Antiviral Data
Preliminary data are available through treatment day 14 from subjects in four combination treatment groups (n= 9-11 subjects per group) and on 15 subjects who received pegylated interferon alone.
* Across all combination groups, the mean reduction from baseline in
plasma HCV RNA ranged from 2.1 to 2.7 log10 on day 7 and 3.3 to 3.5
log10 on day 14. This compared to a reduction of 1.1 log10 on day 7
and 1.7 log10 on day 14 with pegylated interferon alone. Consistent
with known effects of pegylated interferon, response varied by HCV
genotype:
- For genotype 1, mean reduction from baseline ranged from 1.5 to 2.3
log10 on day 7 and from 2.6 to 3.2 log10 on day 14 in the
combination therapy groups compared to 0.9 log10 on day 7 and 1.3
log10 on day 14 for pegylated interferon alone.
* Viral reduction greater or equal to 2 log10 at day 14 was achieved in
70 to 90 percent of subjects in all combination groups compared to 43
percent on pegylated interferon alone.
* At day 14, 30 to 33 percent of patients in the combination groups
receiving greater than or equal to 250 mg BID of HCV-796 achieved viral
levels below the quantification limit of 50 IU/mL HCV RNA.
Conference Call and Webcast
ViroPharma is hosting a live teleconference and webcast with senior management to discuss the clinical results on August 29, 2006 at 9:00 A.M. Eastern Time. To participate in the conference call, please dial (800) 391-2548 (domestic) and (302) 709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
Alternatively, the live webcast of the conference call can be accessed via ViroPharma's website at http://www.viropharma.com. Windows Media or RealPlayer will be needed to access the webcast. An audio archive will be available at the same address until September 15, 2006.
Hepatitis C is a blood-borne virus recognized as a major cause of chronic hepatitis worldwide. The World Health Organization estimates that 170 million persons worldwide are chronically infected with HCV, and three to four million persons are newly infected globally each year. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), about four million people in the U.S., or 1.8 percent of the population, are infected with HCV.
Currently, there is no specific antiviral agent directed against HCV that is commercially available, and no vaccine for prevention of HCV infection. Several interferon (IFN) products are available worldwide, but there are substantial limitations to the use of these products when given as monotherapy or in conjunction with ribavirin in the treatment of chronic HCV infection. In addition to the relatively poor treatment response in patients infected with genotype 1 HCV, the most common strain in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan, the considerable side effects frequently associated with the use of IFN can lead to discontinuation of therapy in approximately 20 percent of patients.
&
Test-Maker May Be Answer to Recession Fears
By Justin Ferayorni
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/28/2006 2:30 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/biotech/10306061.html
Fears of a recession got you down? Feeling overinvested in real
estate? Join the club. If you get sick over it, there's a chance
you'll end up needing one of Meridian Biosciences' (VIVO) diagnostic
tests.
I can't reliably predict the future of the stock market, so I'm
focusing my energy on finding great recession-resistant businesses
that provide shareholder value. Meridian fits the mold.
The company sells a variety of diagnostic test kits in the U.S. and
Europe for a wide range of infectious diseases such as influenza and
the potentially harmful bacteria C. difficile and H. pylori. Its
success over the last few years has been driven by broad-based product
growth.
Meridian's C. difficile test has been the belle of the ball recently,
delivering impressive revenue growth. By my estimates, its C.
difficile products will account for roughly 25% of its worldwide
diagnostic revenue in fiscal 2006, growing roughly 40% from fiscal
2005. C. difficile can cause severe diarrhea and more serious
intestinal problems such as colitis, and it is easily spread among
hospital patients. Infections can force many patients to remain in the
hospital and undergo surgery for intestinal perforations, and can even
lead to death. The bacteria have become more resistant and virulent as
well, and breakouts over the last couple of years in the Midwest and
Canada have made headlines.
Meridian has developed a rapid diagnostic test that is highly accurate
and delivers results within 15 minutes. Because it sells for three
times the price of its batch diagnostic test, it has reaped strong
revenue growth from existing customers who have migrated to using the
rapid diagnostic. The increasing incidence of C. difficile infections
and a strong marketing push by Viropharma (VPHM) for its antibiotic
treatment have set up a perfect storm to drive demand for Meridian's
C. difficile franchise.
Meridian's C. difficile test has had a halo effect on sales of its
other hospital-based diagnostics. I estimate that its revenue from
these products in the U.S. has had midteens percentage growth over
2005 year to date.
The company has drivers that will keep revenue growth rolling as the
benefits from the shift of sales to its rapid C. diff. test begin to
wane over the next couple of years.
I believe that the company will do well with products to test for H.
pylori, a bacterium that has been implicated in causing acid reflux.
Every year, doctors prescribe billions of dollars' worth of drugs
called proton pump inhibitors, such as Nexium, Prilosec and Protonix,
to treat acid reflux without running a diagnostic to determine if acid
reflux is really the source of patients' problems. In reality, many of
these patients have been infected with H. pylori and should be treated
with antibiotics, not proton pump inhibitors.
Meridian hopes to make some nice profits while saving the health care
system money. A small amount of the company's U.S. sales come from H.
pylori products today, but the company has recently hired a national
account manager to help it land more meaningful managed-care accounts.
Any substantial contracts should have a meaningful impact on a small
company like Meridian.
Meridian is in solid shape financially, and I believe it's a
reasonable value at its current price. It holds over $1.25 a share in
net cash and turns all of its net income into free cash flow. While
the company wants to make some strategic acquisitions to complement
its franchises, it continues to return a solid portion of its free
cash flow to investors through dividends. Its current dividend yield
is about 2%, and I expect that if it follows past practices, it will
increase its dividend in early 2007, which should push the yield to
nearly 2.5% at current prices.
Earlier this month, it raised sales guidance for fiscal 2007 to
between $118 million and $123 million, 10% to 15% higher than the $107
million consensus estimate. It also said it expects earnings per share
between 83 cents and 87 cents, which would be a 24% to 30% advance
over the 67 cent consensus estimate for fiscal 2006.
The company has historically been reasonably conservative, and I
believe its guidance is very achievable.
The stock has surged recently along with the market. I feel
comfortable buying Meridian's stock in the low $20s per share,
considering its growth outlook, healthy dividend and commitment to
shareholder value.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At the time of publication, Ferayorni was long Meridian Biosciences,
although positions may change at any time.
Justin Ferayorni, CFA, is the founder and principal of Tamarack
Capital Management and was an analyst and portfolio manager at
Bricoleur Capital. Under no circumstances does the information in this
column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Ferayorni
appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
There's a new test to detect C.Diff so Vaco = prescriptions will go up even more!!
update from IRC:
For the week ending 8/19/05, the prescriptions totaled 2,062. The
prior year, prior week, 8/12/05 the prescriptions totaled 2287,
which was also the highest total for any week in July or Aughust of
last year. This year's number for the comparable weeks are 497 and
244 higher! The average of the weekly prescription numbers for the second
quarter is 2,503.85. So far in the third quarter, the weekly average
is 2524.29. From the weekly prescription numbers for the first 7
weeks of the third quarter, it appears there is no fall off in
demand!this will be a nice run back to the 20 $ area !!
3SoF, will you take a position offically 8) ?[/u][/color]
cheers
Oliver
On fire in pre market as well, now trading above $12.50 on big volume. above the 200ema now, but below 200sma $14. Interesting to see if VPHM can break the post slump peak at $13.20.
Nicely followed Oliver, you have been active on VPHM and keeping it in front of peoples eyes. Applaud.
VPHM update:
Coverage Reit/Price Tgt Changed*
ViroPharma: VPHM; Piper Jaffray = Outperform: $12 » $15
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/UpgradesDowngrades.htm
UPDATE 1-ViroPharma hepatitis C data promising, shares up
Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:30 PM ET
(Recasts, adds analyst comment)
CHICAGO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Shares of ViroPharma Inc.<VPHM.O> rose nearly 11 percent to a five-month high on Tuesday after the company released better-than-expected early-stage data on its experimental treatment for hepatitis C virus, which it is developing with Wyeth Inc.<WYE.N>
ViroPharma on Monday announced results from early studies of its drug HCV-796 in combination with the standard treatment pegylated interferon that were more encouraging than a prior study of the drug alone, according to an analyst.
ViroPharma's oral treatment HCV-796 is designed to block an enzyme called polymerase that the virus needs to replicate. If left unchecked, the virus can cause fatal liver damage.
Results of a prior study, announced in May, suggested the drug might be less effective than another experimental drug being developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. <VRTX.O>.
Piper Jaffray analyst Rachael McMinn, in a note to clients, said the preliminary data for HCV-796 were "better-than-anticipated." She said the data suggest the compound may be inferior to the Vertex's drug VX-950 but superior to one under development by Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc.
ViroPharma said its experimental drug would move into midstage clinical trials in the fourth quarter,
Shares of ViroPharma rose 10.92 percent $12.39 in midday trading on Nasdaq, after touching a high of $12.85 in the session.
ViroPharma Drug Encourages Analyst
Tuesday August 29, 3:18 pm ET
Analyst Reiterates 'Buy' Rating on ViroPharma After Company Says Hepatitis C Data Promising
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of ViroPharma Inc. climbed in afternoon trading on Tuesday after the drug development company reported positive data from an early-stage clinical study of an experimental drug to treat hepatitis C.
The stock rose $1.37, or 12 percent, to $12.54 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq. Over the past 52 weeks, the shares have traded in a range of $7.07 and $24.36.
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Joel Sendek maintained a "Buy" rating, and said he was encouraged by the new data.In the early trial, doses of the drug candidate, HCV-796, were combined with another hepatitis C treatment, pegylated interferon alfa-2b. After 14 days, the combined drugs produced an average viral reduction of nearly 100 percent.
"The data from this Phase I combination trial confirms our previous view that in terms of efficacy, HCV-796 is in mid-range of the drugs in development for HCV," Sendek wrote in a client note. But Sendek noted that the best way to evaluate HCV-796 is through larger, longer trials with patients who have never received treatment for the disease and patients who haven't yet responded to treatment.
Sendek's price target is $21.
The analyst also expects complete results of the trial to be presented later this year and a mid-stage trial to begin in the fourth quarter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060829/viropharma_mover.html?.v=1
fyi:
ViroPharma "market outperform"
Wednesday, August 30, 2006 2:52:04 AM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, August 30 (newratings.com) - Analyst Adam Cutler of JMP Securities reiterates his "market outperform" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM). The target price is set to $15.
In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the data from ViroPharma's Phase I(b) testing of the company's oral polymerase inhibitor HCV-796 in combination with pegylated interferon (PEG IFN) for the treatment of HCV patients was positive. ViroPharma is generating substantial cash flows through Vancocin and the timing of the approval of generic Vancocin is unclear, the analyst says.
from yahoi:
KEY POINTS:
* Details of HCV-796 Phase II trial design generally in line with expectations
* Phase II Trial To Start In September - Expect Next Eventful 1H07 For HCV-
796. We have learned new details of the design of the upcoming Phase II
study for HCV-796, VPHM and partner WYE's polymerase inhibitor for hepatitis
C. The Phase II trial is described as an open-label study comparing the
safety, efficacy, and pharmacokinetics of PEG-INTRON-ribavirin +/- 500 mg
twice daily HCV-796 in 267 patients with HCV genotype 1 who are either
treatment naive or who have previously failed PEG treatment (non-
responders). The trial is expected to start in September, slightly earlier
than VPHM's guidance of 4Q06. Wyeth's expected timeline, which we interpret
to mean the targeted completion of recruitment by November, would imply
preliminary three-month data by February 2007.
* Trial Design Generally As Expected, But With A Few Twists. We expect that
the vast majority of the 267 patients will be treatment naive and that the
PEG non-responders will be an exploratory analysis. We would caution
investors against expecting any substantial efficacy in a non-responder
population, given the early viral rebound noted in Phase I monotherapy
trials with HCV-796. While we believe that HCV-796 could find an important
role in the failure population, it is likely that it will need to be
combined with new oral antivirals to achieve robust responses in this
patient subgroup. Second, we understand that the trial may test longer
duration dosing of HCV-796 than we had expected. Toxicology studies for 13
weeks have been completed to allow for at least three-month dosing duration
in Phase II. However, the company has longer-term toxicology studies
underway that could enable patients from this study to roll over into
extended continued treatment after month 3. Finally, despite the early
details citing an open-label design, we expect that the trial will likely be
a placebo-controlled, double blinded trial as is the typical practice for
Phase II antiviral studies. Overall, we are encouraged that Wyeth has moved
so quickly to begin the trial and that trial protocols and centers appear to
be in late stage planning.
* Recap Of Phase Ib Data: Efficacy Good Enough To Make HCV-796 A Contender. As
a reminder, VPHM recently announced positive data from a 14-day Phase Ib
trial testing ascending doses HCV-796 (100 mg, 250 mg, 500 mg and 1,000 mg
vs. placebo twice daily) in combination with PEG in treatment naïve
patients. HCV-796 demonstrated a placebo-adjusted sustained reduction in
viral load (VL) of 1.6-1.8 log at day 14. In patients with HCV genotype 1,
the most difficult-to-treat genotype, HCV-796 showed a robust placebo-
adjusted VL reduction of 1.3-1.9 log at day 14. Full data from this study is
targeted for presentation at a medical meeting in 1H07.
PRICE TARGET AND JUSTIFICATION:
Our current $15 price target is based on sum-of-the-parts analysis: $6 for
Vancocin + $2 for cash + $7 for pipeline.
Hi,
strong bearish signal...Gap is filling and price stopped near big resistance and fibonacci retracement...
Insider has bought 2000 shares @ 12.25$ >:D
http://www.secform4.com/insider/showhistory.php?cik=vphm
Frederik, could we please JOIN the different VPHM threads?
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.750
cheers
Oliver
Hi Oliver ;)
Done ;)
I will use this merged VPHM thread from now one!
nice chart action after the insider buy was published yesterday
Please check the Cowen Report carefully
I have received another analyst report from Piper, if somebody is interested please contact me ;)
cheers
O.
updated charts, Bollinger BAnds looks very interesting IMO >:D
update from Motley Fool
The Long Road Ahead for ViroPharma
Friday September 29, 11:30 am ET
By Brian Lawler
Nothing is scarier for a pharmaceutical company than the potential threat of generic drug competition. For Pennsylvania-based ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM - News), this threat is even more dire, because the company derives all of its revenues from one drug, Vancocin, that might be facing generic competition in the near future.
As one of my favorite Fools, Rich Duprey, reported earlier in the year, it's still very much up in the air as to when Vancocin might face generic competition, but assuming the worst, it could be as early as two years from now.
ViroPharma desperately needs a drug to come out of its pipeline to replace the $160 million in estimated revenue for 2006 that could be lost if Vancocin, an antibiotic to treat infections of the digestive tract, goes off patent in a couple of years. Fortunately, ViroPharma is on its way to ensuring that it will have such a drug candidate nearing approval if this worst-case situation happens for the company.
Yesterday, the company announced that it had started a phase 3 trial of a drug named Maribavir to prevent cytomegalovirus (CMV, a herpes virus) infection after stem cell transplantation. Patients with suppressed immune systems, such as those who have undergone a transplant, are at high risk for CMV infection, which can lead to serious complications or death. In the U.S. alone, this represents a potential market for Maribavir of more than 46,000 patients annually.
According to ViroPharma, it will take about 18 months to enroll all 500 patients in the first Maribavir phase 3 trial. With a 180-day follow-up period after patient enrollment, this puts the timeline for possible trial results around 28 months from now, according to my estimates. A second phase 3 trial of the drug is expected to launch later this year.
The timeline for Maribavir is still somewhat murky, but assuming the second phase 3 trial will run as long as the first one is expected to, that puts potential regulatory approval of the drug at no earlier than three years from now (assuming no clinical trial setbacks).
Earlier in the year, ViroPharma released preliminary results of a phase 2 trial for Maribavir. The efficacy results looked good and showed that no patients treated with the drug developed herpes, whereas 11% of the placebo patients did. The company released scant details of the drug's safety, but did note that Maribavir had a "favorable tolerability profile."
I'm always skeptical to take management's words on a drug's trial results until I can read more about them in a scientific journal or presentation. I won't make any final judgments on the prospects of Maribavir for approval until the drug's full phase 2 results are released during a medical conference in early December.
Investors should watch intently to make sure there are no trial enrollment delays or other setbacks for Maribavir. Regardless, with Maribavir now in the final stage of clinical trials, ViroPharma has come a long way toward staving off the possible generic competition to its lead drug. That's something that should make any ViroPharma investor happy.
Fool contributor Brian Lawler does not own shares of any company mentioned in this article. The Fool has a disclosure policy.
analyst update; please check the attached document >:D
price target 14 $
still inside the narrowed bollinger bands... :o
any comments from other board members?
cheers
Oliver
nice weekly chart analysis from alimovestock, just FYI:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPHM&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90962572679&a=83322179&listNum=1
still invested as a long term investor 8)
cheers
O.
any body else invested with me ?
ViroPharma "market outperform"
Monday, October 16, 2006 7:14:07 AM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, October 16 (newratings.com) - In a research note published on October 13, analyst Adam Cutler of JMP Securities reiterates his "market outperform" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM). The target price is set to $15.
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1391116.html
please check MACD Crossing !!
out of the bollinger bands today?
long and strong
cheers
Oliver
news update:
ViroPharma Announces New Health Initiatives to Combat Clostridium difficile- Associated Disease and Related Disorders
Tuesday October 17, 9:00 am ET
- Continued Epidemic of Severe Disease Highlights Need for New CDAD Epidemiology, Infection Control, and Patient Data -
EXTON, Pa., Oct. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced the launch of several new health initiatives to combat the Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD), an epidemic that has now spread to over 20 states. The epidemic continues to claim many lives and has attracted significant attention from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), The National Institute for Health, and professional medical societies such as the Infectious Disease Society of America. Most of the concern has centered on the spread of a new "hyper-virulent" strain of the bacteria that is largely resistant to a common antibiotic group known as 'fluoroquinolones' and produces up to 24 times the amount of C. difficile toxin as previously identified strains. Infection with this strain can lead to severe disease that rapidly progresses, and can result in death within days of disease presentation.
ADVERTISEMENT
CDAD historically has affected primarily elderly patients who are frequently hospitalized and often administered broad spectrum antibiotics. These antibiotics can kill off so-called "good bacteria" that naturally reside in the gastrointestinal tract and keep "bad bugs" in check. Once these good bacteria are gone, patients are at risk of acquiring a common, dangerous, and highly infectious nosocomial infection caused by a bacterium called C. difficile. These bacteria form highly durable and infectious spores which may contaminate patients' skin and environmental surfaces. These infectious spores are then easily transmitted from patient to patient on healthcare workers' hands, or by contacting contaminated surfaces.
According the CDC, over the past two years, several states have reported increased rates of CDAD, noting more severe disease and an associated increase in morbidity and mortality. Overall C. difficile disease rates in U.S. acute care hospitals have more than doubled since 2000.
"The Clostridium difficile organism is a difficult bacteria to culture and type, and the disease it causes is even more difficult to manage; once an institution starts to see an outbreak of infection spread through their patients, it is very difficult to eradicate - the best one can hope for are more effective measures to help control the rate of infection," commented Dale Gerding, M.D., associate chief of staff for research at the Hines VA Hospital. "Today's disease is simply different than in the past. Far more patients are getting extremely sick, many of whom would have in the past been at little to no risk of disease. There are more cases of severe, life-threatening disease today than ever before, especially in the very elderly patients. There is a great need for additional data on the epidemiology of CDAD, the characteristics of the epidemic organisms, and on the patients suffering from this disease. What we can learn today will help to improve surveillance, increase outbreak control and prevention, and establish safe and effective treatments for these patients."
ViroPharma is pleased to work with leading physicians towards several investigator-lead trials, including:
-- Identifying the epidemic strain -- Culture, Typing, PCR and
Susceptibility of Clostridium difficile from Clinical Specimens:
Current methods of detecting and diagnosing CDAD usually do not enable
the identification of the hyper-virulent, epidemic strain of C.
difficile. As a result, health care providers may not be aggressive
enough in implementing control measures to control the spread of this
deadly strain. To provide a better understanding of C. difficile
epidemiology, molecular microbiology, and susceptibility to various
drugs, the Hines VA Hospital has established a Microbiology Reference
Laboratory (MRL), which will aid institutions in typing strains of the
bacterium and perform susceptibility testing of C. difficile in an
effort to improve detection and management strategies for dealing with
the epidemic strain.
-- Adding data on infection control -- Shedding of Clostridium difficile
and other nosocomial pathogens during and after treatment of C.
difficile-associated diarrhea with vancomycin versus metronidazole:
During the course of CDAD, infectious spores are easily passed from
patient to patient on physician hands and hospital surfaces.
Hospitalized patients with CDAD may frequently have concomitant
intestinal colonization with pathogens including vancomycin-resistant
enterococci (VRE) and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus
(MRSA) that can also be shed onto skin and environmental surfaces.
This study will examine the hypothesis that treatment of CDAD with
oral vancomycin may be associated with decreased shedding of C.
difficile spores in comparison to treatment with metronidazole, and
improved inhibition of coexisting S. aureus colonization. These data
will help elucidate how C. difficile is shed into the environment, and
improve C. difficile, VRE and MRSA infection control methods.
-- How does CDAD affect the gastrointestinal tract? -- Exploratory Study
of the Gastrointestinal Environment in Patients with Clostridium
difficile-Associated Disease (CDAD): The physiology of the
gastrointestinal tract of a patient with CDAD is complex and not well
described. Factors which may influence performance and contribute to
the effective and consistent delivery of effective therapy - including
core body temperature, changes in pH over the length of the
gastrointestinal tract, and gastrointestinal motility or flow volumes
- need to be studied. The purpose of this study is to examine the
intestinal environment of patients with CDAD and compare the findings
to a population of healthy subjects. This study will utilize a
"SmartPill® GI Monitoring System" which measures gastrointestinal pH
and transit times. The data derived from this study will provide a new
basis of understanding the environment of the gastrointestinal tract
of patients with CDAD, and provide new data to better understand the
potential relevance for dissolution and solubility of anti-infective
therapy in these patients.
-- Other related gastrointestinal disorders -- A Pilot Trial of Oral
Vancocin® in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: Primary sclerosing
cholangitis, or PSC (also known as "Walter Payton Disease"), is a
disease primarily of the bile ducts, both inside and outside the
liver. As disease progresses, the walls of the bile ducts become
inflamed which causes scarring and hardening that narrows and largely
blocks the bile ducts. Because bile cannot drain properly through the
ducts, it accumulates in the liver causing damage to the organ. With
long-term cell damage, the liver can develop cirrhosis and may no
longer function properly. PSC also appears to be associated with
ulcerative colitis, a type of inflammatory bowel disease. While
researchers do not know what causes PSC, among the theories under
investigation is the possible role of bacterial flora and how
modification by Vancocin might influence this disease.
"It is especially important today to dedicate efforts toward better understanding CDAD, how it is spread, and the patients themselves who are at risk of CDAD and other clinical manifestations of the disease," stated Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "As a leader in the development of treatments for CDAD, it is our responsibility to take the additional steps needed to better understand this new epidemic and provide education to medical professionals who are responsible for diagnosing and treating affected patients. Through these valuable programs, many of which have been in the planning phases for some time, ViroPharma is continuing to do its part in the healthcare community to address the spread of this life- threatening disease."
&
ViroPharma Conference Call
Scheduled to start Wed, Oct 25, 2006, 5:00 pm Eastern
nice chart:
- break out from bollinger bands
- golden cross coming soon
- MACD positiv
- RSI positiv
All things go!!! Bought the breakout from recent trading range today, I think VPHM is looking good and should have a good week!
Much props for all your work on the VPHM thread, Oliver, and bringing people's attention back to it!!
Have my firewall and add blockers turned off but can never see images in line here..so cannot post an in line image either as there is no image button..weird as all other SMF boards work fine
anyway the longer term view showing the bo
http://tinyurl.com/yfqh6v
thanks for your feedback ;)
Briefing.com:
Viropharma (VPHM 13.22) broke out of its late March-Oct range
yesterday, and today the stock set a new 7-month high. VPHM is
trading at its best levels since it was nearly cut in half in March,
due to concerns that generic versions of the co's Vancocin drug
could come earlier than expected. VPHM has recently traded above its
50-day and 200-day moving averages, and continued strength could set
the stock up for a move back toward the late-2005 reaction lows of
~15.50. VPHM's only marketed product is Vancocin, which is used to
treat bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. VPHM is
also developing maribavir for prevention of cytomegalovirus
infection, as well as a hepatitis C compound, HCV-796.
from yahoo board:
Hey La-Onda,
Thanks again for the continued updates - I'm really liking the look of VPHM right now. Looking at the 1 year chart it is clear how siginificant this weeks move is, breaking above the late march high and into the (sort of) gap from when it collapsed. As you note, there is a lot of potential news on the way and I suspect we will see some kind of positive continuation in anticipation of next week's CC.
Right now we are sitting above double support at 13.20, and then 12.85, which should (hopefully) keep the price above $13, but I want to see a strong continuation towards my short term target of$15.50 (November's lows). Terliso's 50SMA, 200EMA and 200SMA are coming into alignment now, and we have a well validated ascending trendline.
I haven't decided if I will sell the news next week (particularly as I see this as a short term play for me) - depends on what the price action is up to, but I hope all the best for us in both the short and long term - I would not be surprised if VPHM is trading back above $20 by the end of the year ;)
The ViroPharma Earnings Conference Call (Q3 2006) is Scheduled to start Thu, Nov 2, 2006, 9:00 am Eastern, so we may have almost two weeks to decide to get out or not before this call
jorgegr
additional profit for VPHM:
Nice little profit earned by VPHM today if they held on to the SIGA
shares. As of June 30, they were holding the shares.
Per the 10-Q.
""Short-term investments consist of fixed income securities with
remaining maturities of greater than three months at the date of
purchase, debt securities and our marketable securities investment
in SIGA. At June 30, 2006 and December 31, 2005, all of the short-
term investments were classified as available for sale investments.
The unrealized losses, which have been experienced for less than
twelve months as of June 30, 2006, have been deemed not to be other-
than-temporary due to the nature of the debt securities and
announcements by SIGA on developments in its clinical trials and an
equity offering, which provide reassurance as to the near-term
prospects of SIGA. The Company has the ability and intent to hold
these investments for a period of time sufficient to recover the
fair value of the investments."
Will VPHM hold or will they sell thier SIGA investment?
;D
awesome to read :
Pamela Anderson and David Hasselhoff:
http://thestockmasters.com/stock_vphm_10192006_1.asp
......
Taking a quote from Pamela Anderson:
I don't really think about anything too much. I live in the present. I move on. I don't think about what happened yesterday. If I think too much, it kind of freaks me out.
Be like Pam - stop freaking out and realize that VPHM is trading on the lower end of its 52 week range of $7.07 to $24.36. They report Q3 earnings on November 2nd, so now could be the right time to live in the present, buy the stock, and move on.
;D ;D
La-onda you are nothing less than Tasmanian devil with your speed of updates ;D
appalud
update >:D >:D
Live In Play
26-Oct-06
10:39 VPHM ViroPharma: Physician experts outline substantial market
opportunity for Maribavir - Lazard (13.22 -0.27)
Lazard notes physician experts highlight need for new agents in both solid organ and stem cell transplantation.
Firm believes VPHM's Maribavir may double the current $350 mln market based on higher price, a shift to universal prophylactic use, and longer duration of use.
Firm says preliminary Phase II data compelling as they expect full data at ASH in Dec and expect recently initiated Phase III studies to be positive (but probably not as striking as Phase II where the incidence of CMV in the treatment arms was zero).
Firm notes catalysts as a Maribavir Phase III trial in SOT initiation in 4Q06; a decision from the OGD/FDA on Vancomycin generic drug applications; a Maribavir European partnership in 4Q06.
Piper Jaffray informations 8)
ViroPharma 3Q Profit Jumps 25 Percent
Thursday November 2, 10:54 am ET
Where Vancocin Sales Go, So Goes ViroPharma -- Both Are Up in the Third Quarter
EXTON, Pa. (AP) -- ViroPharma Inc. said Thursday third-quarter earnings added 25 percent as sales of its leading antibiotic, Vancocin, rose by half.
Net income climbed to $23.3 million, or 33 cents per share, from $18.7 million, or 31 cents per share, in the year-ago period.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected profit of 25 cents per share.
Revenue rose 54 percent to $55.2 million from $35.8 million last year. Vancocin, an antibiotic for Staph infections, accounted for nearly all of the total as prescriptions grew 20 percent from last year. The Street was looking for revenue of $44.9 million.
Looking ahead, the company expects product sales between $162 million and $170 million in 2006.
ViroPharma shares rose 25 cents, or 2 percent, to $13.03 in morning trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market, where it has ranged from $7.07 to $24.36 in the past 52 weeks.
fyi
ViroPharma: 3Q Vancocin sales very strong; efforts to reinstate requirement for clinical trials of Vancocin may be going better than stated - Lazard (12.98 +0.20) -Update-
Lazard notes VPHM reported Q3 EPS of $0.33 vs. their est of $0.26, including stock option expense. Firm notes Vancocin sales were $55.1 mln, above firm's est of $46 mln due mainly to approx $8 mln in wholesaler buying ahead of an anticipated price increase. Firm says efforts by the co to reinstate the requirement for clinical trials for potential generic oral Vancocin may be going better than the co has publicly stated. Firm says new rules from ODG say "Critical Path" for generic approval does not include oral Vancocin.
Hello la-onda, I see you're still a big fan of VPHM :)
It's curious to see that the share price is nearly the same as it was back on it's IPO ten years ago. In the meantime revenues grew from $0 to an estimate of $164.79 M this year. It makes me concerned about having a longer term perspective. Fundamentals can improve dramatically without the share price advancing. A company's development and its share price aren't always tied together as one might think.
Actually I'm developing a "theory" on why this happens so many times ... I'll be around to share it with anyone interested.
Nice to see you, thanks for your personal messages of support :)
Welcome 'back' David! :)
Hello Se7en, how are you doing after that last minute draw against Chelsea? You truly have an European spirit, howcome a Belgian is a Barcelona fan?
Checking a bit more stuff on VPHM, here is a chart of historical market cap, instead of the share price:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27571;image)
The market cap grew 1357%, from $65.2 M in 1996 to $885 M now. The share price is up just 30% over the same 10 year period.
How's this possible?
Of course, a company's value is given by the market cap, and market cap = share price*number of shares outstanding. So, intuitively you can see the number of shares outstanding has been steadily up over these years, and this explains the paradox of market cap up much more than the share price (in fact, in extremes, the market cap can go up, that is, the value of a company can go up and at the same time the share price can go down, making all fundamental analysis relatively useless).
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=27572;image)
See the rise in the # of shares outstanding ... unfortunately VPHM is diluting shareholder value. It needs to start working for the shareholder benefit so investors can earn real money.
I'll keep an eye on it ... good luck :)
Actually, if we go down to a quarter by quarter level, we can see that maybe what I was requesting is already happening. In February the 24th, 2006, the company had 68,585,108 shares outstanding. In May 2, they had 68,587,608 shares and in their latest 10-Q report, they reported 68,597,680 shares outstanding in July 31st.
So, at least they're issuing much less stock now than in the past. Maybe they don't need to do that anymore, as they have $224 M in cash and cash equivalents. Perhaps the company is now ready to benefit shareholders.
Nice volume yesterday on that 50 day moving average test:
Is this the real DR. Come on back to us, please Dave. We need those theories, those predictions, those insights, those book suggestions, those rules, those detailed analysis, and most of all that comradory that this site was founded on. This is no slight to Rams, I fully appreciate the site he has created but I miss the old days very much.
Please and Thank you
uc.
Yes, I'm thinking of coming back to stock trading and 3 Stocks. I've been away for too long and have talked to Ramsburg on my comeback. We agreed, so all I have to do now is to catch up with everything I've lost on 3 Stocks and markets over the last 8 months or so. I believe it will take a month for me to be back in full power.
Thanks for your support usedcasting, I also miss the old days :)
Hi David,
Nice to see you,
I am so happy you back.
gogo
Quote from: David Randolph on November 03, 2006, 07:16:22 AM
Hello Se7en, how are you doing after that last minute draw against Chelsea? You truly have an European spirit, howcome a Belgian is a Barcelona fan
Please don't remind of that undeserved late equalizer!! :(
I've been a fan of Barça since I was a little kid, it was kind of hard to resist to those very beautiful blaugrana colors and especially let's not forget the beautiful football Barça has a patent on!!
Visca el Barça! :)
Quote from: David Randolph on November 03, 2006, 09:18:21 AM
Yes, I'm thinking of coming back to stock trading and 3 Stocks. I've been away for too long and have talked to Ramsburg on my comeback. We agreed, so all I have to do now is to catch up with everything I've lost on 3 Stocks and markets over the last 8 months or so. I believe it will take a month for me to be back in full power.
Thanks for your support usedcasting, I also miss the old days :)
Holy Moly, am I seeing this right, you are thinking of coming back? :o Im all giddy over here in Boston to see you back and posting so much! Its like Christmas may be coming early this year, really hope that your "thinking" of coming back turns into coming back for good!!! ;D ;D
Lol tokyopua, thanks for your support :D
Yes, I'm pretty sure I'll be back to active writing and probably running a part of the 3 Stocks Portfolio soon. I just need to spend some time analysing stocks and get used to this work again. I'm sorry for such a prolonged absence :-[
I always thought you were in Tokyo, after all you're in Boston ... I'm curious about your Bird Flu play, why now? It seems there's not a lot of talk or interest on the group now.
Nice to talk to you :)
David!!!.. I'm glad to hear from you .. I wish the best for you & tour team..
Good luck
Welcome back David/Cesar 8) (should we stock to David?)
Have you feel the enthusiasm and the positive vibrations ?? >:D
just FYI:
Nothing's Wrong With ViroPharma
By Brian Lawler
November 3, 2006
Just the whiff of impending generic drug competition can be disastrous to the share price of a pharmaceutical company, and this has been the case this year with shares of ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM). The potential introduction of generic versions of its lead product, Vancocin, which treats infections of the gastrointestinal tract, is possible sometime next year.
Despite the possibility of this negative upcoming event for ViroPharma's only marketed product, sales of Vancocin have been rising nicely over the past year due to price increases and strong prescription growth for the drug. Sales were $55 million in the quarter and are expected to be up at least 29% for all of 2006 compared to 2005. Earnings for the quarter were $23 million, $0.33 a share.
In the past few months, ViroPharma has made great strides in moving its pipeline along, in case Vancocin faces generic competition in the future. It moved Maribavir, its drug to treat a form of herpes that occurs in immunosuppressed people, into phase 3 trials. Additionally, ViroPharma and partner Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) just initiated a 267-person phase 2 trial testing its polymerase inhibitor hepatitis C treatment.
Investors will notice that shares of ViroPharma are trading at 16 times its trailing-12-month earnings (excluding a one-time tax benefit). This very cheap valuation is obviously due to the possibility that Vancocin may face generic competition sometime in the near future. ViroPharma made somewhat of a case back in June for why the drug shouldn't see generic competition without human clinical trials for any generic equivalents, but it is still up in the air whether the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs division will be amenable to these arguments. News on this front is very unpredictable, and timelines for when the FDA will release more information on the possibility of generic Vancocin have not been established.
What happens to Vancocin will determine how well shares of ViroPharma perform in the near future, but at least ViroPharma's management has taken the right steps in securing its long-term future with the progress it has made in its drug pipeline.
http://www.fool.com/news/mft/2006/mft06110311.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&bounce=y&bounce2=y
Quote from: David Randolph on November 03, 2006, 11:21:03 AM
Lol tokyopua, thanks for your support :D
Yes, I'm pretty sure I'll be back to active writing and probably running a part of the 3 Stocks Portfolio soon. I just need to spend some time analysing stocks and get used to this work again. I'm sorry for such a prolonged absence :-[
I always thought you were in Tokyo, after all you're in Boston ... I'm curious about your Bird Flu play, why now? It seems there's not a lot of talk or interest on the group now.
Nice to talk to you :)
Well, even the possibility that you will be back is exciting. I learned so much from you, and actually took it somewhat for granted when you were still posting at the beginning of the year. (As with many things in life, we only realize their full value when we lose them.) In the meantime, on your recommendation I have read Nison's Candlestick Charting book and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and have been trading much better ever since :D
About my screen name, I lived for 5 years in Tokyo in total (once for 2 years, another time for 3 years) but Im American and living in Boston now. There is much more story to myscreen name, simply google it if you are curious and open minded ;)
As for my bird flu plays, I am mainly betting on a repeat of last year's trends. Unlike betting on hurricanes that never happened, I believe from all the reading I have done on the subject that the threat of bird flu is simply not going to dissapear anytime soon. I made 77% recently anticipating the run in GNBT (the Catching the Falling Knife thread, though admittedly much of that rise was due to their diabetes related drugs), so I am trying to pull of a similar bottom play with EMFP in particular as it has not yet rallied like NVAX, GNBT, SVA etc. My thinking is that the basic candlestick support levels make buying EMFP at .8 roughly a 20% loss potential to 100% return potential in the near term. I also found many months ago that they retained council to help them with military contracts, so there is that speculative aspect as well.
As for having most of my stocks bird flu related, I am uncertain about where the market is going but I expect bird flu stocks to have their own bull market as they did last year. If the overall market goes down from here, then maybe that will cancel out and I wont lose much. If the market does well, I believe the bird flu stocks will be bouyed and perform that much better. I dont short stocks so this is my own way of attempting to hedge my bets after having had great returns in the last 2 months.
Time will tell ;)
QuoteWell, even the possibility that you will be back is exciting. I learned so much from you, and actually took it somewhat for granted when you were still posting at the beginning of the year. (As with many things in life, we only realize their full value when we lose them.) In the meantime, on your recommendation I have read Nison's Candlestick Charting book and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and have been trading much better ever since Cheesy
Thanks for your pleasant words tokyopua :) Reminiscences is an extraordinary book, you just need to beware because Livermore wasn't very good about controlling risk.
Now I'll recommend you another book: "Stock Market Wizards - Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders", from Jack D. Schwager.
QuoteAbout my screen name, I lived for 5 years in Tokyo in total (once for 2 years, another time for 3 years) but Im American and living in Boston now. There is much more story to myscreen name, simply google it if you are curious and open minded Wink
Lol, you made me laugh ... so you want to be a full time PUA? Nice job ;D
QuoteAs for my bird flu plays, I am mainly betting on a repeat of last year's trends. Unlike betting on hurricanes that never happened, I believe from all the reading I have done on the subject that the threat of bird flu is simply not going to dissapear anytime soon. I made 77% recently anticipating the run in GNBT (the Catching the Falling Knife thread, though admittedly much of that rise was due to their diabetes related drugs), so I am trying to pull of a similar bottom play with EMFP in particular as it has not yet rallied like NVAX, GNBT, SVA etc. My thinking is that the basic candlestick support levels make buying EMFP at .8 roughly a 20% loss potential to 100% return potential in the near term. I also found many months ago that they retained council to help them with military contracts, so there is that speculative aspect as well.
As for having most of my stocks bird flu related, I am uncertain about where the market is going but I expect bird flu stocks to have their own bull market as they did last year. If the overall market goes down from here, then maybe that will cancel out and I wont lose much. If the market does well, I believe the bird flu stocks will be bouyed and perform that much better. I dont short stocks so this is my own way of attempting to hedge my bets after having had great returns in the last 2 months.
I like your macro reasoning. Just be carefull with one thing: EMFP is an OTCBB stock, and those companies usually are in the market to take money away from investors, not to share results (because they're too young or sometimes their business model isn't profitable at all and they need the stock market to go on living another year). So, it is possible that all your macro reasons are right, and yet you fail to make money on EMFP because the company is diluting shareholder value.
Do you want me to check this for you, or better, do you want me to teach you how to make this test? (it's important especially on OTCBB traded stocks). If you are, please ask the question on an EMFP thread, I'm sure there's one on 3 Stocks.
Nice talking :)
Bought VPHM at 12.58 on the 34/55RSI Buy Signal. Stop: 12.19. Risk: a loss of 3.1%.
Friday's low of 12.21 was a validation of the trendline off the July 7.07 low. I like that.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 13, 2006, 04:00:16 PM
Bought VPHM at 12.58 on the 34/55RSI Buy Signal. Stop: 12.19. Risk: a loss of 3.1%.
Friday's low of 12.21 was a validation of the trendline off the July 7.07 low. I like that.
Friday's low was a second validation of that trendling (Green #4), then today was a Bullish Engulfing candle (not shown yet on this chart).
nice to see you again MelfElf, should we use this thread now?
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6770.msg75808#msg75808
cheers
O.
(still invested in @ 9..4 and May 07 12.5 $ calls) >:D
Quote from: la-onda on November 13, 2006, 06:17:28 PM
nice to see you again MelfElf, should we use this thread now?
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6770.msg75808#msg75808
cheers
O.
(still invested in @ 9..4 and May 07 12.5 $ calls) >:D
Oliver,
I am at a complete loss, as far as which thread to use. All of my posts on VPHM from last winter and spring are in this thread, so I will continue to use it since it was a former "3SOF" stock, and there are a ton of posts in this one.
I'm grateful to David that he has given privleges to our buddy, setravis, to "merge" these threads however he sees fit. Perfectly fine with me. TELL ME where to post, because I'm an "
old elf," and I get totally confused.
:D ;D
That said...
Here's the chart, with today's close.
VPHM is telling us the following:
1. I tagged the up trendline coming off the July 7 low of 7.07 (the Double Top target MADE for sure, at that point. It was in doubt on what looked like a "bad print" on May 4, which Lucas Scott and I discussed at that time. No doublt at the July 7 low. The Bearish target of 7.76 MADE, and was exceeded).
Friday's tag of that up trending off the July 7 low is the FOURTH tag of that trendline, and it's the SECOND validation of that trendline, as support. BULLISH.
2. Today's takeout of Friday's 12.58 high (the "buy pivot" is a Buy Signal on a print of 12.59. We got it. (I'll show you the 34/55 RSI chart next) BULLISH.
3. Today's candle is a Bullish Engulfing pattern, off a SECOND validation of that up trendline.
VERY BULLISH.
If VPHM takes out Friday's 12.21 low, other than for a very, very tiny fakeout (which is why my stop iat 12.19, below the "psychological" round number of 12.20, we shouldn't want anything to do with it.
DON'T LIE TO ME!! >:D
VPHM has told us VERY BULLISH things here, and we shouldn't tolerate LIARS, if all of those things get reversed to the downside, which would tell us that all of the above
wasn't BULLISH.
:D ;D >:D
"Never tolerate nonsense from stocks. I SELL, on nonsense." - Melf Elf :D ;D >:D
Like I did on all of those SELL signals that I had late last winter. Mercy! :P
I quit counting a SELL #7, when VPHM met its Waterloo on the break of absoulte critical support at 15.53-15.55, during the St. Paddy's Day Massacre.
UGLY!!
Even our Cramer put a Post-it note on his forehead, to remind himself NEVER to "fall in love" a company's fundamentals.
No criticism of our Cramer intended. We ALL make our mistakes, God bless him. ;)
I've made MANY.
It doesn't matter to me Oliver, WHICH folder we post in. I just hope that I don't get smited half to death posting on VPHM, like I did late last winter of my SELL..#3...SELL #4...SELL#5...SELL #6....SELL #7...
Lord, it was brutal in here!
:D ;D >:D
34/55 RSI chart coming up next...
34-55 RSIs
two investor conferences are coming,
IMS Health October Prescriptions:
October prescriptions total 18,843. A strong number for the fourth quarter.
TA looking better now ;D
Got in VPHM recently at 12.52. Accidentally bought a double position compared to what I planned to buy ::) but luck was on my side this time despite that mistake.
Melf, do you have a target on this one? I am thinking to sell half of my double position at 13.84, the most recent resistance, and maybe let the rest ride.
Quote from: tokyopua on November 16, 2006, 03:42:47 PM
Got in VPHM recently at 12.52.
Tok,
You have a GREAT enty into VPHM!
You got in below the 12.58 Buy Pivot, and below the actual Buy Signal, at 12.59, a penny above the "pivot." Applaud!
I bought the 12.58 "pivot," in anticipation, as posted.
I have a favor to ask of you, and I'm going to ask it of ALL members of 3SOF. In fairness to David, Frederick and Michael, let's post our "great entries" in as timely a fashion possible.
I completely trust you, Tok, so please don't take any offense. You have posted many other trades in a VERY timely fashion, which is why I feel safe with you, in saying this.
3SOF is very vulnerable, as is ANY web site that HAS TO post trades in a "credible manner." The rest of us can say, "Oh-h-h, did I mention that I bought this stock, BEFORE it rallied? Did I mention that I SOLD this stock, BEFORE it crashed?"
Ummm-mmm....NO, you didn't!
That ain't playing fair, and that's why I haven't be very happy with "Abandoned Folders." Members post "after the fact," that they are LONG, but when the stock tanks, there isn't a word said about the stock.
That's also why I haven't posted in this folder for a very long time.
I'm not fond of that "internet" behavior, and I think that it's very unfair to our 3SOF team, who have "struggled" this year, like the rest of us, and who have to post their trades IN ADVANCE.
Let's all try to be fair with them.
Frankly, I don't buy a lot of the "I have this gain and that gain" posts.
After the fact. Sorry, but I've played this game MUCH too long, to find that believable.
Again, Tok, I don't doubt you for a minute on your VPHM trade. I have found you to be VERY honest, like The Scotsman, Maxi, Nullzero, Beroznifoff, Usedcasting, Thai626, Amerans... and way-y too many others to mention.
Quote
Accidentally bought a double position compared to what I planned to buy ::) but luck was on my side this time despite that mistake.
That's an example of what I mean. You're honest. You admit the mistake. THANK YOU!!!
I'm going to post all of the above, and ask for fairness in "claiming gains." The rest of this post, I will respond to your question.
Quote
Melf, do you have a target on this one?
Yes,.
Target #1: The recent high, at 13.84.
Target:#2: The "possibile: Bearish Rising Wedge, shown on this chart.
Target #3: 15.50ish, where VPHM met its "Waterloo," at the St. Paddy's Day Massace. It's also a "measured move" off the second gap higher, August 29.
0quote]
I am thinking to sell half of my double position at 13.84, the most recent and maybe let the rest ride.
Quote
Yeah, that's Target #1.
Good luck, Tok, and thanks for your sincerity and for your honesty.
I don't have good karma in this folder. so I'll see how many SMITES I get. >:( >:D
Nice week for VPHM. It was up, at least a little, each day.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 16, 2006, 07:24:06 PM
Target #1: The recent high, at 13.84.
Target:#2: The "possibile: Bearish Rising Wedge, shown on this chart.
Target #3: 15.50ish, where VPHM met its "Waterloo," at the St. Paddy's Day Massace. It's also a "measured move" off the second gap higher, August 29.
My plan is to sell only 10% if/when we get to Target #1. Normally, I would sell 25% or 50%, but I like this chart, technically, and VPHM seems to have promise, fundamentally (thanks to those of you who add that perspective).
As the chart stands, it looks like it wants to go higher.
We're well above the Kumo (Cloud) on the Ichimoku chart, but not too much so. The RSIs all are "in gear," all the way down the 13... 21 .. 34... 55... 89... 144... 233... Fibonacci sequence, with the exception of the last pairings, the 144/233 RSIs. Those are the longest-term measures of relative strength that I look at. They're more of a "confirming" indicator, rather than of a "leading" indicator, like the earliest 13/21RSIs. (I tried the 8/13RSI pairing, and didn't like it. Too many whipsaws, and false readings).
MACD went above its signal line, from above the zero line, on Friday. That "suggests" a bullish continuation, when the signal is given from above the zero line (always view those signals in the context of what the chart itself is doing). The chart looks fine.
Structurally, the BIG Top that formed in VPHM, and subsequently broke at 15.55 during the St. Paddy's Day Massacre last winter, formed over seven months. VPHM now has had eight months of basing, and time to recover.
There isn't always "parity" between Bulls and Bears, e.g. seven months worth of Bulls going up against seven months worth of Bears, but it helps a chart when it isn't going up against a ton of immediate overhead resistance (like CPST has tried to do, and has failed repeatedly).
Additionally, VPHM broke out of a nice Inverse H&S in August (No Right Shoulder). That was Bullish. The 13.65 target getting MADE was confirmation. The target getting MADE fairly quickly was confirmation of the "No Right Shoulder." VPHM was in too much of a hurry to rally, to bother stopping to form a Right Shoulder.
VPHM broke out on a Breakway Gap, and then three days later, had another "Measuring Gap" to the upside. That's "Raging Bull" behavior. It's heathy that VPHM went into sideways consolidation from there, to build a base of support for another rally. Otherwise, another big Gap Up puts the stock in danger of a Parabolic Rally (straight up affair) that ends very upleasantly in a "Blowoff Top," and often, a "Parabolic Return" to the origin of the initial breakout.
In light of these Bullish factors, it would seem that VPHM wants to return to the battlefield, where it met it's Waterloo,
exactly at 15.55-15.56.When
15.55-15.56 got taken out in early trading at the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, VPHM crashed, on tremendous volume. Watching the intraday chart, it looked like "they pulled the plug on it."
The low was 10.35. The close was 10.855. UGH. >:(
Much of the Crash purely was due to technical selling, because:
15.55 - was where the Bearish Wolfe Wave Target line (#6) came in that day.
15.56 - was the low of the November Double Bottom (15.56-15.60), before VPHM embarked on its Death March to 23.44 on January 31 of this year, prior to crashing to 7.07 in July.
When Key Support like that gets taken out, we want to get out of the way.
We'll take a look at that time-frame next, to get an idea of "where we've been," and also because there's a decent chance that we'll be "returning to the scene" aty some point, as long as VPHM looks as good as it does right now.
See narrative, last post.
analyst update part 1
part 2
finally
Oliver,
Thanks for the posts on the fundamentals. Applause.
Minor selloff in VPHM this week. That's fine. On any further move down next week, I'd like to see the green and blue up trendlines hold, particularly the blue one. Both trendlines have been validated as support.
The blue trendline comes in on Monday at 12.6314, slightly above my 12.58 entry.
My initial stop was 12.20. I'm raising it to a close below that trendline, or an obvious late day tank below it, especially if it's on volume.
VPHM hung on for a five cent gain in yesterday's down market.
On this morning's Squawk, Paul Noglows, of Lazard Capital, made positive comments and said that his price target is $21.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 26, 2006, 04:15:12 AM
The blue trendline comes in on Monday at 12.6314, slightly above my 12.58 entry.
My initial stop was 12.20. I'm raising it to a close below that trendline, or an obvious late day tank below it, especially if it's on volume.
Same stop. That trendline comes in today, November 28, at 12.668.
VPHM is trading above $14 for the first time since the St. Paddy's Day Crash.
The top of the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge basis the daily chart (scroll up two posts, and see pattern in blue) comes in today at 14.5244, and rises 0.02538 each day. I'll take some profits if/when we reach that trendline.
VPHM currently is BID 14.09...ASK 14.10, up $0.52.
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 13, 2006, 04:00:16 PM
Bought VPHM at 12.58 on the 34/55RSI Buy Signal. Stop: 12.19. Risk: a loss of 3.1%.
Friday's low of 12.21 was a validation of the trendline off the July 7.07 low. I like that.
Sold 25% of my VPHM at 14.52, at the channel/trendline. Gain: 15.4%
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 10:30:41 AM
The top of the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge basis the daily chart (scroll up two posts, and see pattern in blue) comes in today at 14.5244, and rises 0.02538 each day. I'll take some profits if/when we reach that trendline.
Beautiful Bullish patterns and chart structure on today's rally to the
14.5244 trendline. I like that. Today's high, so far, is 14.55.
VPHM currently is BID 14.44...ASK 14.45.
fyi, wonderful update >:D :
Update On VPHM From Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference
Thomas Wei, Senior Research Analyst
212 284-9305, thomas.a.wei@...
KEY POINTS:
Possible combination study with HCV796 and Vertex's VX-950 could be
a positive catalyst in 2007 for VPHM.
VPHM's HCV-796 May Be Attractive To VRTX For Combination Studies with VX- 950.
We learned that senior management at VRTX has indicated that
they are interested in studying VX-950, its protease inhibitor in development
for HCV, in combination studies with a polymerase inhibitor.
Of the polymerase inhibitors in development, they expressed particular interest in
VPHM's HCV796, a non-nucleoside currently in Phase II trials. Although VPHM
did not directly confirm any ongoing discussions with VRTX, VPHM senior
management reiterated its strong interest in participating in combination
studies with other companies developing novel HCV therapies and a belief that
this will become an important direction in the treatment paradigm for HCV.
Based on comments from both companies, we believe that the development
pathway would involve initial drug-drug interaction studies to determine if there
is an interaction between the two drugs (protease inhibitors are
predominantly metabolized through the CYP3A4 pathway, whereas CYP3A4 represents
one of multiple mechanisms for HCV796 metabolism) followed by initial 14-
day proof of concept studies. We believe that the development pathway, if
successful, would likely center around a combination approach in the front-line
setting. If the companies move forward with combination studies, this could
represent a new positive catalyst for VPHM in 2007.
PRICE TARGET AND JUSTIFICATION:
Our current $16 price target is based on sum-of-the-parts analysis:
$6 for Vancocin + $3 for cash + $7 for pipeline.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE:
Risks include but are not limited to: 1) Vancocin competition, and
2) failures in maribavir and/or HCV programs.
The 14.60 close is a technical breakout of the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue).
Quote from: la-onda on November 29, 2006, 01:48:37 PM
fyi, wonderful update >:D :
Update On VPHM From Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference
Thomas Wei, Senior Research Analyst
PRICE TARGET AND JUSTIFICATION:
Our current $16 price target is based on sum-of-the-parts analysis:
$6 for Vancocin + $3 for cash + $7 for pipeline.
Oliver,
Thomas Wei was on Squawk yesterday morning. He liked AUXL, GILD and AMLN. He didn't mention VPHM.
I suspect that his $16 target is at least partially based on the fact that we've got 6½ months worth of bagholders at 15.50-ish on up to the high of 24.36, pre-St. Paddy's Day Massacre (see chart from that time-frame, posted above on November 18).
We're heading into year-end, so if we get to the 15.50s before then, which looks doable based on yesterday's nice white candle, we likely will have to contend with some tax loss selling.
fyi:
ZACKS Target Upped at VPHM
Posted Wed Nov 29, 03:36 pm ET
Summary:
The near-term future of ViroPharma is heavily dependant on sales of
Vancocin Capsules. Reported sales in the third quarter were far above expectations based on approximately two weeks (or $8 million) in wholesaler stocking. Sales of $55.1 million exceeded our $45.7 million forecast handily. According to IMS Health, prescription demand increased 20% over the same period in 2005. Several generic manufacturers, including Strides and Akorn, have announced their intent to bring a generic Vancocin (oral vancomycin) to the market. Recent guideline changes at the Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) have seemingly facilitated the application process for a locally acting GI drug such as Vancocin, removing the
necessity for human clinical trials before approval. This could allow for ANDA filings for generic oral vancomycin at any time, with an approval in 2008 two years earlier than previously expected given the old guidelines. This caused a 45% sell-off in the stock in March 2006.
The company has filed a Citizen s Petition to the OGD with two formal letters outlining the legal protocol and scientific merits to halt an early generic alternative on May 31, 2006 and June 30, 2006, respectively.
ViroPharma will now wait for OGD responses to the two letters hopefully within the next several months. Last quarter ViroPharma presented very impressive phase II data on CMV
candidate Maribavir and strong phase Ib data on HCV-796. We believe the company is making great progress with the pipeline and both HCV-796 and Maribavir offer the next wave of growth for shareholders. Our Buy Call: Backing out the wholesaler build of two weeks in the
third quarter and results were largely as expected. Prescription growth for Vancocin of 20% remains very strong. We are also very excited about the potential for Maribavir. Impressive phase II data in late March was essentially ignored because investors are focused on generic Vancocin. Maribavir is significantly under-appreciated in our view. Finally, as far as the
legal and scientific petition to the FDA-OGD, we believe that ViroPharma s position is strong. The risk of a generic product before 2009 is unlikely in our view.
"We believe the shares are vastly undervalued. Our target is $20."
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 30, 2006, 02:57:58 AM
We're heading into year-end, so if we get to the 15.50s before then, which looks doable based on yesterday's nice white candle, we likely will have to contend with some tax loss selling.
How about the 15.50s
this afternoon? :D
Sold another 25% at 15.55, at the bottom of resistance. Gain: 23.6%
well I've been following you guys on VPHM from the sidelines, but it looked so good, I had to get me a little this morning at 14.75 - as usual a day (or a week) late, but whaddya know. Anyway, its probably in a bit of a dangerous spot right now with significant overhead resistance and $16 analyst targets so this could be a very quick trade, but I want to see whether it still has some strength in the morning.
Great trades guys ;)
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 18, 2006, 11:41:55 AM
In light of these Bullish factors, it would seem that VPHM wants to return to the battlefield, where it met it's Waterloo, exactly at 15.55-15.56.
When 15.55-15.56 got taken out in early trading at the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, VPHM crashed, on tremendous volume. Watching the intraday chart, it looked like "they pulled the plug on it."
The low was 10.35. The close was 10.855. UGH. >:(
It was interesting watching trading in VPHM after I sold some yesterday afternoon at
15.55-15.56 resistance.
VPHM had rallied from 13.07 over the course of three days, for a nice 19.1% gain, but when it hit that resistance area, you could see the "head banging" starting between the Bulls and Bears.
Sorry for this sloppy chart, but I don't want to lose all of my work, so it looks like I threw a pizza pie at it. The important thing is the thick red line in the middle of the chart. That represents the 15.55-15.56 low end of resistance.
Everyone who bought VPHM from late August, 2005 to the St. Paddy's Day Massacre paid 15.55 or more for the stock, so think of all of the candles above that thick red line as players for the Bears, who have been holding long, and who would like to dump VPHM for a break even, or for a smaller loss than they've had during the decline to 7.07.
Not all of them will be sellers, of course. Many of them will be willing to hold their positions, and much of that will be determined by whether or not there is good price action in the stock (gains on good volume, that are sustained), and whether or not there is good news on the fundamental front.
Quote from: ScottishTrader on November 30, 2006, 10:25:01 PM
Anyway, its probably in a bit of a dangerous spot right now with significant overhead resistance and $16 analyst targets so this could be a very quick trade, but I want to see whether it still has some strength in the morning.
Yeah, and we've got some targets higher than that, e.g., Lazard came out with a $21 target the other morning.
In my view, as I've discussed with Oliver, it doesn't matter much what target the analysts put on it (or put on any other stock) because, in the case of VPHM, they can't possibly know the outcome of court rulings on the generics for Vancocin, or future results for Marabavir (spelling?). No better example than last winter, when the analysts were falling all over themselves raising the target almost on a daily basis, some of them into the $30s, I think. Cramer was giving VPHM the BOOYAH...
Who could have known that VPHM was headed for 7.07, in July, 2006? ???
What we did know last winter, despite all of the analysts upgrades and the Cramer BOOYAH, was that the chart started to look terrible, with numerous sell signals, prior to the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, which tells us that...
"Analyst upgrades and downgrades aren't what's important. It's
the market's response to them that is important."
Remember last winter...
"Gap to Crap #1 on 'good' news"
"Gap to Crap on the Cramer BOOYAH"
When the market responds to "good news" in that manner, it generally is a WARNING. :o
Same with earnings, as we've seen many, many times. Companies report outstanding earnings, then the stock TANKS.
"It's
the market's response to earnings that's important, not the earnings per se."
In the current time-frame, VPHM has been getting some analyst upgrades again. What has
the response to the upgrades been?
VPHM has rallied.
That's very different behavior from last winter, when the market
sold the good news . Technically, the chart has been acting bullish, and VPHM was able to capitalize on the good news.
In a manner of speaking, the technicals and the fundamentals agreed on a rally at least to the 15.55 - 15.56 breakdown/resistance.
We're now at "the bottom rung" of resistance, but if the chart continues to act this bullish, VPHM should be able to climb higher, end-of-year tax loss selling/normal pullbacks notwithstanding.
1)
Briefing.com
Live In Play
01-Dec-06
10:37 VPHM ViroPharma downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney on
valuation; tgt $15 (15.12 -0.29)
:o
2)
Zacks update >:D >:D
cheers
O.
"the return of the jedi"
6 months chart >:D >:D >:D >:D
More head banging, pushing and shoving at Key Resistance, 15.55-15.56 on up, which we expected. Yesterday's high: 15.53 .
What would be nice to see on any further selloff, would be for the top of the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue) to become support, then have another assault on Key Resistance.
Support below that:
1. The 13.84 high
2. The 13.63 high of the Bull Flag
3. Green up trendline
4. Blue up trendline
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 06, 2006, 03:12:31 AM
More head banging, pushing and shoving at Key Resistance, 15.55-15.56 on up, which we expected. Yesterday's high: 15.53 .
That's still key resistance. There are three weeks of tax loss selling remaining, but if VPHM continues to act this well, we could get a Santy Surprise Rally above that level.
Quote
What would be nice to see on any further selloff, would be for the top of the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue) to become support, then have another assault on Key Resistance.
The top of the Rising Wedge came in on Friday at
14.703. Friday's low was
14.75, then VPHM bounced and closed at 15.10, a penny off the 15.11 high of the session.
That's nice technical action: there's been selling at Key Resistance, but Bulls are stepping in at the first area of support.
Quote
Support below that:
1. The 13.84 high
2. The 13.63 high of the Bull Flag
3. Green up trendline
4. Blue up trendline
We've still got plenty of support levels below there, if the top of the Rising Wedge fails to hold, as support.
On my remaining ½ position long from 12.58, I've raised my stop to below
13.01, I'll probably use 12.98, below the "psychological" round number stop of 13.00.
1.
13.17 is the 50DMA
2.
13.02 is the bottom of the little Bull Flag (pattern in green)
3.
13.01 is the bottom of the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue).
If all of that support should get taken down, I won't want the stock, and I'll sell.
wonderful Maribavir update 8)
21:50 VPHM ViroPharma announces presentation of additional
Maribavir Data at American Society of Hematology meeting (15.02 -
0.08)
Co announced additional supportive results from the coy's Phase 2
evaluation of maribavir, an oral antiviral drug candidate in Phase 3
development to prevent cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in transplant
patients, at the 48th Annual Meeting of the American Society of
Hematology (ASH), held in Orlando, Florida. Data from the Phase 2
study of maribavir presented at the meeting elaborates previously
presented data on the antiviral activity and tolerability of the
compound, and new data including the results of analyses of the
rates of graft versus host disease (GvHD) in patients receiving
maribavir compared to placebo. Additional data from a
pharmacokinetic study in subjects with renal impairment were also
presented.
"These data show that maribavir appears to be well-
tolerated and had impressive anti-CMV activity in stem cell
transplant patients," stated study lead author Drew Winston M.D.,
UCLA Medical Center. "This marks an exciting advancement for
preventing this serious infection." "This is the first presentation
of a more extensive Phase 2 data set at a scientific meeting. These
data clearly demonstrate, among other outcomes, that prophylaxis
with maribavir significantly reduces the incidence of CMV infection
in this population," remarked Stephen Villano, M.D., ViroPharma's
vice president of clinical research and development.
chart & analyst update ;)
update ;)
Business & Insurance Update
Value Visible at ViroPharma
By Marc Lichtenfeld
Senior Columnist
12/19/2006 11:02 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/businessinsurance/10328689.html
Shareholders of ViroPharma (VPHM) will be glad to see 2006 go.
The stock is down 19% year to date and 36% from its peak, mainly because of a decision by the Office of Generic Drugs that may make it easier for drugmakers to launch a generic version of Vancocin, which combats Clostridium difficile-associated disease, or CDAD. The disease causes diarrhea, but can be fatal in more severe forms.
The OGD ruling doesn't require generic-drug makers to include clinical trials as part of the scientific evidence in their applications. ViroPharma has appealed the OGD's ruling, but it's anyone's guess as to whether the decision will be reversed.
The prospects of generic Vancocin, however, may already be priced into ViroPharma's stock, and the upside to investing could be significantly greater than the risk.
The company has a small but promising pipeline and a reasonable valuation, and shares likely would bounce higher should the OGD reverse its decision and side with ViroPharma.
If the government rules against ViroPharma, there could be a short-term hit to the stock. But likely, the longer-term fundamentals will remain unchanged, since Wall Street already is anticipating the introduction of generic drugs in 2008.
Generic Questions
At the heart of the issue is the OGD's decision to allow generic-drug makers to prove bioequivalence with an in vitro approach. In other words, drugmakers would test the generic to see how it dissolves. However, it wouldn't be tested in humans for efficacy.
Dr. Dale Gerding, professor of medicine at Loyola University and chief of research at Hines VA Hospital, outside of Chicago, says he wouldn't use a generic version of Vancocin in patients until it was proven safe and effective.
"There's a big difference between what happens in a beaker and what happens in the human body," he says. Gerding has a business relationship with ViroPharma. Dr. David Mushatt, chief of adult infectious diseases at Tulane University, concurs. "They can take the tablet and drop it in a beaker to study its physical characteristics. If it's similar to Vancocin, it's reassuring," he says.
"But it has an indirect relationship to what happens in the gastrointestinal tract when you have to deal with all of the enzymes and other issues that I think would be almost impossible to recreate in a test tube." Mushatt doesn't have a relationship with ViroPharma.
Upset Stomach
CDAD is a bacterium that yields toxins in the digestive tract. The incidents of CDAD have doubled in the past four or five years, according to Gerding, due to a particularly virulent new strain.
That has helped ViroPharma increase Vancocin sales from roughly $40 million when it acquired the drug from Eli Lilly (LLY) in 2004 to the company's projection of $160 million to $170 million in sales this year.
Vancocin sales also have been helped by a price increase. Although he believes Vancocin is "a little more effective" than metronidazole, the current standard of care for mild to moderate CDAD, Mushatt calls the drug "prohibitively expensive." He says he would be excited about a cheaper generic alternative.
Patients can expect to pay roughly $90 per day for Vancocin, with a full course of treatment typically lasting 10 days. That compares to about $10 a day for metronidazole. Because of its price, Vancocin is usually used for the more severe CDAD cases or when metronidazole doesn't work.
But the current environment plays into Vancocin's strength, because it is effective against the severe (and now more prevalent) forms of the disease.
ViroPharma CEO Michel de Rosen points out that with the new severe strain there are a larger number of patients getting sick and dying faster. "So for the physician or hospital, it is very important to treat the patient with the right drug, quickly," he says.
Strong Pipeline
ViroPharma has two key compounds in its pipeline: Maribavir, which treats a disease called cytomegalovirus in stem cell transplant patients, and HCV-796 for hepatitis C. Maribavir is in phase III trials, and ViroPharma presented positive phase II data at the American Society of Hematology conference last week. Cowen & Co. believes Maribavir could become the standard of care and a $200 million drug. Cowen co-managed an offering for ViroPharma in the past three years.
Although the hepatitis C space is crowded, ViroPharma's de Rosen expects room for several players. He believes hepatitis C will be treated with a "cocktail" of drugs, similar to treatment for HIV. He calls his drug "the best in class of the polymerase inhibitors."
De Rosen envisions polymerase inhibitors combining with protease inhibitors, such as ones being researched by Schering Plough (SGP) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) , in the cocktail to attack the virus from different angles.
Additionally, de Rosen expects to acquire another compound in 2007. The company originally planned to make a purchase this year, but the CEO couldn't find the right opportunity. "We're not going to do a deal just to do it," he says. "It has to be of the highest quality and at the right price."
Value Stock?
ViroPharma is that rare breed of biotech company that makes money and is cash flow positive. Earnings next year are expected to be $1.07 a share, according to Thomson First Call. The forecast gives the stock, currently trading around $15, a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 14. That's value stock territory in most sectors.
However, for 2008, Wall Street has priced in generic Vancocin and forecasts earnings per share of just 74 cents. The long-term growth rate is 21.5, giving the stock a price/earnings to growth ratio of just 0.65.
It's important to realize that the FDA isn't required to reach a decision until a drug company files an application for the generic version. The patent on Vancocin expired in 1995, and no one has come forward yet with an alternative.
If the FDA remains silent, that could keep an overhang on the stock, even while the company maintains its monopoly in a growing market.
But with bad news priced into an already cheap stock, investors who wait it out could see a big reward.
Last week, VPHM broke below the up trendline (green) off the 7.07 low, but bounced off its 50DMA on both Wednesday and Thursday, and held well above the bottom of the Rising Wedge (blue). That looked pretty good.
VPHM could make another low here, but I'm going to stop it out if it does.
Quote from: Melf Elf on December 10, 2006, 11:20:18 AM
On my remaining ½ position long from 12.58, I've raised my stop to below 13.01, I'll probably use 12.98, below the "psychological" round number stop of 13.00.
I'm raising the stop on my remaining ½ position, to 13.89, below last week's low. I've been holding VPHM for two months and want a nice profit. That would give me 15% gain on the trade.
awesome >:D >:D >:D
Michael, it´s time to enter VPHM again (if you are not invested already)
cheers
Oliver
ViroPharma Provides Financial Outlook for 2007
2007 Net Product Sales Expected to Grow to $195 to $205 Million; Company to
Increase Expenses to Advance Clinical Programs and Support Vancocin Growth
EXTON, Pa., Jan. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer, will present a financial update and provide an overview of the company's business during the 25th Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. As previously announced, this presentation will be webcast live at 1:30 P.M. Pacific Time on Thursday, January 11, 2007 and may be accessed via the company's website at http://www.viropharma.com. The company expects to release full-year 2006 financial results and further discuss 2007 guidance later in the first quarter of 2007.
"2006 was a year of tremendous execution and advancement throughout the company, including the commercial and clinical organizations," commented Mr. de Rosen. "I can confirm that our 2006 net Vancocin(R) sales will be within our guidance range of $162 to $170 million, representing strong growth of 27 percent to 35 percent over that of 2005. In addition, we believe that wholesalers lowered their inventory levels as we ended the year. Importantly, cash flows from Vancocin sales again more than fully funded our clinical pipeline. Patient dosing started during the fourth quarter of 2006 for each of our late stage clinical compounds: maribavir, our Phase 3 compound in development to prevent cytomegalovirus disease in transplant patients, and our Phase 2 compound HCV-796, the leading non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor of hepatitis C, which we are developing with our partners at Wyeth."
"2007 will be another important and exciting year for ViroPharma as we focus on advancing our late stage clinical pipeline," continued Mr. de Rosen. "We do expect continued growth in Vancocin sales; we are today providing our 2007 net Vancocin sales guidance of $195 to $205 million. In 2007, we expect that the cash flows provided by our growing revenue will not only fully fund our pipeline, but also will keep the company in an excellent position to execute on business development initiatives as we continue our commitment to bring solutions to physicians treating patients facing life-threatening diseases. Our 2007 operational expenses will grow as well, as we advance maribavir in its pivotal Phase 3 clinical trials and HCV-796 through Phase 2 evaluation, and make new investments into our CDAD educational efforts and the Vancocin business generally."
Looking ahead in 2007
ViroPharma is commenting upon future guidance for the year 2007 as a convenience to investors. The following elements of guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
- Net product sales are expected to be $195 to $205 million;
- Gross margin rate for Vancocin is expected to exceed 90 percent;
- Research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be $60 to $72 million.
The company's projected R&D and MG&A expenses have been presented excluding the effect of stock option expense resulting from SFAS 123R and as such are financial measures that are not prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Further discussion of 2007 guidance, including the impact of SFAS 123R, will be provided along with the full-year 2006 financial results later in the first quarter of 2007. The company is unable to provide a quantitative reconciliation because the items that would be excluded are primarily dependent on additional inputs which have not been determined.
Looks very inticing on the surface. The trouble with VPHM has always been valuation. Because vanco is unpatented and the FDA is, as of today, willing to permit a showing of equivalence without clinical trials, VPHM could easily drop to single digits in one day again, if the FDA denies VPHM's "appeal." Too much risk here for me.
Quote from: la-onda on January 08, 2007, 05:02:26 PM
ViroPharma Provides Financial Outlook for 2007
2007 Net Product Sales Expected to Grow to $195 to $205 Million; Company to
Increase Expenses to Advance Clinical Programs and Support Vancocin Growth
Oliver,
Thanks for that news. Applause. Did it come out before the market close, or after?
EDIT: Okay, Oliver, I see that the news came out after the close. Thanks.
Now we want to see the market's
reaction to that news.
In the weeks ahead of The St. Paddy's Day Massacre, VPHM didn't react at all well to good news, breaking chart support, putting in "Gaps To Crap," etc.
Since the summer low of 7.07, VPHM has responded well to good news, and has rallied.
We want to pay attention to any sea change in VPHM's response to good news.
Quote from: buddjas1 on January 08, 2007, 05:40:00 PM
Looks very inticing on the surface. The trouble with VPHM has always been valuation. Because vanco is unpatented and the FDA is, as of today, willing to permit a showing of equivalence without clinical trials, VPHM could easily drop to single digits in one day again, if the FDA denies VPHM's "appeal." Too much risk here for me.
buddjas,
I hear ya.
These stocks can be very rewarding on the upside, like VPHM has been since the summer low, but they also can be brutal on the downside on any disappointment, like DVAX yesterday, which got whacked for a 30% loss.
I'm always glad when targets get MADE, so I can take some off the table and give myself some measure of safety, "just in case."
I've got a 19.5% gain in VPHM on the 50% that I've sold since I bought it two months ago, so hopefully, I'll come out with a nice winner, but I can understand why you'd rather avoid the risk in VPHM, and in similar stocks.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 09, 2007, 07:58:20 AM
Now we want to see the market's reaction to that news.
If a gap up opening does much more than come back and fill the gap from the prior day's high, there's always a concern that it's a "Gap To Crap."
The opening was 14.83, with a quick tick of 14.85, then to slide began immediately, toward yesterday's high of 14.64.
The low this morning came in at 14.60, filling the gap, and we're now printing new highs on the day. That kind of reaction to Oliver's good news looks fine, so far.
Players saw that the gap was filled, and were willing to step in and buy it, and now at new highs, they're also showing willingness to pay a price higher than the gap up opening.
Briefing.com
Live In Play
09-Jan-07
07:28 VPHM ViroPharma: 2007 guidance issued; Vancocin sales steady -
TWP (14.42 )
Thomas Weisel notes VPHM announced that 2006 Vancocin sales will be
within the co's previous guidance range of $162 - $170 mln. Firm
notes that according to an analysis of I.M.S. sales data, Vancocin
sales could have potentially come in above the VPHM's guidance
(about $173 mln).They note that mgmt believes, however, that
wholesaler inventories were drawn down at the end of the year. The
co also issued initial revenue and expense guidance for 2007. Given
the increased uncertainty regarding the timing of a generic Vancocin
approval, firm believes VPHM should trade at a discount to its
peers. However, they believe that the current discount is
unjustified, as the recent positive phase II results for maribavir
bode well for the longer term growth prospects for the company.
&
ViroPharma's Healthy Sales Guidance
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/01/09/viropharmas-healthy-sales-guidance.aspx
Brian Lawler
January 9, 2007
For most companies, the start of a new calendar year also coincides with the beginning of a new fiscal year and the accompanying financial forecasts for the upcoming quarters. Yesterday, drug developer ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) became the latest company to give its 2007 guidance for sales and expenditures.
Absent any potential generic competitors entering the market for its only marketed drug, the antibiotic Vancocin, ViroPharma is expecting another strong year of sales growth, with sales up at least 15% over 2006.
ViroPharma guided for gross margins in excess of 90% on its Vancocin sales, a small window into how earnings could wind up for the company next year. At the midpoint of its sales and expenditure numbers, this would bring 2007 operating income to at least $114 million, excluding stock-based compensation. Applying a 35% tax rate to this income would give ViroPharma approximately $75 million in expected net income, or a little more than $1 in earnings per share for the coming year.
Based on my estimates, ViroPharma is trading at a cheap 14 times 2007 earnings, and with more than $220 million in cash and short-term investments on the balance sheet, it has more than $3 of its share price covered by this cash. It will be interesting to see what ViroPharma spends this growing cash pile on, considering management's ability to be an astute in-licenser of drugs in the past with its acquisitions of Vancocin and Maribavir.
With one promising drug candidate in phase 3 trials, and another in phase 2 trials to treat hepatitis C, ViroPharma has a lot going for it -- assuming it can fend off any possible generic entrants against Vancocin. Another risk to watch out for is Genzyme's (Nasdaq: GENZ) competing drug, which will be completing phase 3 trials this year and could be on the market as soon as 2008. If it shows superior efficacy compared to Vancocin, that could also be bad news for ViroPharma shareholders in the short run, until the company gets Maribavir onto the market. Either way, this small-cap pharmaceutical stock is worth taking a look at just for its cheap valuation.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 09, 2007, 10:54:39 AM
The low this morning came in at 14.60, filling the gap, and we're now printing new highs on the day. That kind of reaction to Oliver's good news looks fine, so far.
VPHM ended up coming back to the gap, breaking 14.60, and going down to 14.40. >:(
I never like anything like that. The gap already was filled, so why did it need to go back down, and fill it again?
Curses! >:D
After I stopped ranting like a maniac, I tried to find an answer, and there was a very good one: VPHM came back to
14.40 to nail a re-retest of the Bullish Falling Wedge
exactly, which was at
14.405.
Oh-h-h... where's that Embarrassed Face? > > :-[
The Bullish Falling Wedge breakout has 15.59 IN PLAY, and 16.30 IN PLAY.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 08, 2007, 07:04:22 AM
I'm raising the stop on my remaining ½ position, to 13.89, below last week's low. I've been holding VPHM for two months and want a nice profit. That would give me 15% gain on the trade.
I'm raising my stop again to 14.39, below the successful 14.40 re-test of the Bullish Falling Wedge.
Excluding a gap down, that locks me in to a 17.2% gain of the entire trade.
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Initiates Coverage of ViroPharma, Inc. With A Market Perform Rating
Analyst Initiates with Market Perform Rating
NOTE TO EDITORS: The following is an investment opinion issued
by Rodman & Renshaw, LLC
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rodman & Renshaw, LLC initiated research coverage of ViroPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: VPHM) with a Market Perform Rating. Ilya Kravets, Senior Specialty Pharmaceuticals Analyst, issued the report.
About Rodman & Renshaw, LLC
Rodman & Renshaw is a privately held, full-service investment bank committed to fostering the long-term success of growth companies through capital raising, strategic advice, insightful research, and the development of institutional support. More information is available at www.rodmanandrenshaw.com
None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of ViroPharma, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).
As of December 31, 2006, neither Rodman & Renshaw, LLC nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of ViroPharma, Inc.
Neither the research analyst nor Rodman & Renshaw, LLC has any material conflict of interest with ViroPharma, Inc., of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or its affiliates did not receive compensation from ViroPharma, Inc. for investment banking services within the last twelve months and Rodman & Renshaw, LLC intends to seek compensation from ViroPharma, Inc. for investment banking services within three months, following publication of the research report.
Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor Rodman & Renshaw, LLC serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of ViroPharma, Inc.
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC does not make a market in ViroPharma, Inc. securities as of the date of this research report.
The above information is not intended to be used as a primary basis of investment decisions. It is not a representation by Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Before investing in ViroPharma, Inc., you should carefully consider your risk tolerance and financial objectives.
VPHM is very well positioned, technically, to benefit from good news on the fundamentals, like XING was last week when the Dutton analyst gave it an upgrade.
If you scoll up and look at my last post on January 12, VPHM had broken out of a Bullish Falling Wedge. It's fairly common for those to morph into a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern, which more frequently are seen at market bottoms, but they also can show up at high levels of consolidation, as it appears here.
This particular pattern is a DOUBLE Inverse H&S (one "nested" within the other), and it has formed right below Major Resistance from the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, 15.55-15.56.
In addition, basis the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, we can "See at a glance...the table of balance" that:
1. VPHM pulled back from the neckline, found support at the 22-day (solid red line)
2. It also found support above the Kumo (Cloud), the vertical green lines.
3. The 8-Day (solid green) and 22-Day have had a Bullish Cross
4. Friday's candle was a Bullish Hammer off that support (needs upside follow-thru).
That's very nice.
After 10-months of Crash recovery, and recent consolidation below resistance, that kind of pattern is "packing some punch" to finally make a move higher, into the resistance area.
The MACD also is well positioned for a "slap shot," or a "bump and run higher" (see next post).
If we visualize the MACD (solid red) as a hockey puck, and the signal line (dotted red) as the hockey stick, we can see that the "puck" is sliding back toward the "stick," beautifully position for a "slap shot" into the goal, just as it was last November, when VPHM had a nice rally to the 15.55-15.56 Major Resistance.
Indicated 3% higher on news that it will be added to the S&P Small Cap 600 on January 25.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 22, 2007, 05:24:36 AM
This particular pattern is a DOUBLE Inverse H&S (one "nested" within the other), and it has formed right below Major Resistance from the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, 15.55-15.56.
This is looking
so-o pretty.VPHM currently is BID
15.55...ASK
15.56, right at that major resistance.
The high of the pattern is 15.68, so this rally needs to hold up, and that needs to get taken out to the upside.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 23, 2007, 10:04:40 AM
This particular pattern is a DOUBLE Inverse H&S (one "nested" within the other), and it has formed right below Major Resistance from the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, 15.55-15.56.
This is looking so-o pretty.
VPHM is capitalizing on the breakout of the DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S pattern that formed just below that Major Resistance (see daily chart, next post).
It's currently trading above $16 for the first time since the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, headed for the breakout target of 16.95 IN PLAY.
DOUBLE Inverse H&S breakout above Major Resistance at 15.55 - 15.56.
16.95 is IN PLAY.
Prior to morphing into the DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S that broke out to the upside this week, VPHM broke out of a Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in purple) that put 15.59 IN PLAY, and 16.30 IN PLAY. Both targets MADE in yesterday's rally, within one penny.
The high was 16.29, and VPHM
finally closed above that daunting 15.55-15.56 St. Paddy's Day Massacre resitance, on the highest volume (8 million shares) since the positive Hep C results on August 29 of last year.
Structurally, since blasting out of the Bullish Inverse H&S Island Reversal (with No Right Shoulder) on August 24, 2006 VPHM has been a thing of beauty, technically, as the patterns have evolved and broken out, support has been re-test and held, and targets have gotten MADE.
Earnings should be coming up soon, and we never know how the market will respond to them, but based soley on the fine technical job that VPHM has done, it should be rewarded for it.
The chart of VPHM, both going into the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, and coming out of the Crash Recovery, is a great study for technicians.
Scores for Technical Merit:
...10...10...10...10...10...10...11...
Judge #7 is Melf Elf, who is a
total sucker for beautiful chart structure. :D
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 22, 2007, 05:32:46 AM
If we visualize the MACD (solid red) as a hockey puck, and the signal line (dotted red) as the hockey stick, we can see that the "puck" is sliding back toward the "stick," beautifully position for a "slap shot" into the goal, just as it was last November, when VPHM had a nice rally to the 15.55-15.56 Major Resistance.
We got the "slap shot" into the goal (over 15.55-15.56 Major Resistance).
If VPHM should have a rally as good as the one off the November "slap shot" signal, that would put it, roughly, at 17.74, well above the 16.95 DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S target IN PLAY.
There's no reason, technically, to expect the percentage gain to be the same, but it would seem that coming out of a nice pattern breakout like this, the target certainly ought to get MADE, and quite possibly exceeded on this rally.
One never knows, with earnings on the wing, but I'll hold VPHM through earnings if the target hasn't MADE.
struggling with my move to Singapore (arrived 8) )
still no Internet @ home :-X :'(
thanks for the updates Melf Elf
cheers
Oliver
24-Jan-07
06:21 CALLS Early Research Calls I
... Susquehanna initiates ViroPharma (VPHM 15.51) with a Positive, as they believe maribavir has the potential to expand the cytomegalovirus market and favor the co's work on a non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitor for HCV with partner Wyeth...
Quote from: Melf Elf on November 13, 2006, 04:00:16 PM
Bought VPHM at 12.58 on the 34/55RSI Buy Signal. Stop: 12.19. Risk: a loss of 3.1%.
Friday's low of 12.21 was a validation of the trendline off the July 7.07 low. I like that.
Sold remaining 50% VPHM at 16.99. Gain: 35%.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 25, 2007, 10:02:16 AM
DOUBLE Inverse H&S breakout above Major Resistance at 15.55 - 15.56.
16.95 is IN PLAY.
16.95 MADE.
Quote from: la-onda on January 26, 2007, 03:44:32 AM
struggling with my move to Singapore (arrived 8) )
still no Internet @ home :-X :'(
thanks for the updates Melf Elf
You're welcome, Oliver. Hope that you're getting settled in Singapore! ;)
I kick myself every day for selling this stock. Bought in the beginning of November at an average price of 12.98, sold at 13.10 because it "wasn't moving fast enough." Now it's up around 30% Blast >:D
Oh well, congrats and Applause, Melf and la-onda!
I am back in the 21st century (Internet @ home) ;D
Well nice chart and nice attached report.
I am not happy that I have sold my March 07 12.5 calls before my move to Singapore (to lock 50% profit) :'(
Holding long and strong my shares....
cheers
O.
Quote from: nutsterrt on January 30, 2007, 06:28:09 PM
I kick myself every day for selling this stock. Bought in the beginning of November at an average price of 12.98, sold at 13.10 because it "wasn't moving fast enough." Now it's up around 30% Blast >:D
Oh well, congrats and Applause, Melf and la-onda!
Nutsterrt,
Thanks. I've done that so-o many times (Impatient Demon >:D), I sure can relate to what you're feeling. I appreciate your sharing that, and that you're working hard to improve, like we all are. Applause.
These DOUBLE breakouts can be very powerful, as this one in VPHM was, so it's good if we can watch for them. The "nested" Bullish Inverse H&S pattern formed over 34 trading sessions; it took only 6 days for the target to get MADE.
Quote from: la-onda on January 31, 2007, 12:11:42 AM
I am back in the 21st century (Internet @ home) ;D
Glad that you're getting settled, Oliver. ;)
Quote
Well nice chart and nice attached report.
I am not happy that I have sold my March 07 12.5 calls before my move to Singapore (to lock 50% profit) :'(
Holding long and strong my shares....
Nice job! Applause.
Thanks for all of your updates in this thread, Oliver. They've been very helpful.
thanks MelfElf ;)
updated chart. updated PIPER report (price target now 20$ >:D )
also attached for download
cheers
O.
awesome milestone....
>:D
ViroPharma Receives Orphan Drug Designation for Maribavir for Cytomegalovirus Viremia and Disease Indication
EXTON, Pa., Feb. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted orphan drug designation for maribavir for prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia and disease in the populations at-risk.
The Orphan Drug Act was designed to provide incentives to companies to develop drugs that treat conditions affecting 200,000 or fewer patients annually in the U.S. and that provide a significant therapeutic advantage over existing treatments or fill an unmet medical need. Orphan drug designation entitles ViroPharma to seven years of market exclusivity in the United States upon FDA approval of maribavir, provided that the company continues to meet certain conditions established by the FDA. Other potential advantages include protocol assistance, the potential for priority review, tax credits, and other financial incentives.
"We are particularly pleased to receive orphan designation for the product from the FDA," commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "We have made excellent progress with maribavir over the last 12 months. We demonstrated in a Phase 2 clinical trial that the drug appears to be well tolerated with impressive anti-CMV activity in stem cell transplant patients, which has allowed us to initiate our international Phase 3 development program. The receipt of this designation marks one more important milestone in the development of the compound. Maribavir is an important Phase 3 drug candidate for a significant unmet medical need, and may one day provide an effective and well tolerated therapeutic alternative for patients at risk of CMV disease."
just saw that, nice ;)
Stuck in a PM order at 17.49, lets see if it gets filled
yahoo board quotation (irc):
Orphan Status
Yes, the news is significant. Although the orphan drug designation
was expected by some analysts, until it happens it can't be counted
on with certainty. The designation provides VPHM market exclusivity
for patients at risk of CMV disease. This is a very broad
designation. In effect, no one else can compete with ViroPharma for
7 years beginning with FDA approval of Maribivir for prophylactic
treatment of CMV at risk patients (and possibly for pre-emptive
treatment as well). This is in addition to patent protection from
generics. Also with Hatch-Waxman, if Maribivir is approved in 2009,
the remaining patent life can be extended from 2015 to 2018 or 2020.
ViroPharma will have market exclusivity from 2009 (assuming
Maribivir is approved in 2009) to sometime in 2016 and a patent life
that won't expire until 2018 or 2020. The protocol assistance and
priority review are also very important benefits of the orphan drug
designation. It means that someone at the FDA is assigned to
Maribivir to assist ViroPharma in designing clinical studies to get
speedy FDA approval of the clinical trials and also someone is
assigned to Maribivir to ramrod Maribivir through the NDA approval
process. In theory, the priority review could shorten the time it
will take to get Maribivir on the market. How much shorter? It is
not known given the fact that Maribivir already has a fast track
designation. But at a minimum, it means there will be someone at the
FDA whose job it is to ensure that the right people at the FDA are
reviewing the NDA in a timely manner. Plus there are tax credits!
Piper Jaffray raises their Viropharma (VPHM 17.77) tgt to $21 from
$20, as the co raises possibility Of marketing Maribavir In EU.
They would view this as a positive move for several reasons. Given a
well- defined transplant market in Europe, which they estimate would require a comparably sized salesforce as in the US, they believe the opportunity could be financially attractive. They also note that senior management at VPHM has greater depth in EU regulatory and commercial experience than most US biotech companies, lowering the risk of expanding into Europe...
please check attached report
Q4 results out!
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2006 Financial Results and Reiterates Guidance
Wednesday February 28, 7:00 am ET
EXTON, Pa., Feb. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2006.
Highlights during the fourth quarter of 2006 included:
Vancocin®:
-- Vancocin achieved $38.5 million in net sales;
-- Prescriptions for Vancocin grew 19 percent over fourth quarter of 2005,
as estimated by IMS; and
-- Wholesaler inventory decreased by two to three weeks.
Clinical Pipeline:
-- Patient dosing began in a Phase 3 study of maribavir for the prevention
of cytomegalovirus disease in stem cell transplant patients;
-- Additional positive data from the maribavir Phase 2 evaluation was
presented at the 2006 American Society of Hematology meeting (ASH); and
-- Patient dosing began in a Phase 2 evaluation of HCV-796 in combination
with pegylated interferon and ribavirin.
Financial:
-- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew $32 million to
$255 million; and
-- Working capital grew to $266 million.
Net sales of Vancocin® were $38.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2006 and $166.6 million for the twelve months of 2006. This compares to $40.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2005 and $125.9 million for the twelve months of 2005.
Operating income in the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2006 was $25.1 million and $98.8 million, respectively, compared to operating income in the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2005 of $28.2 million and $88.1 million, respectively. Operating income for 2006 was impacted by increases in gross product margin, partially offset by increased costs to support Vancocin and our CMV and HCV development programs. Operating income for the year ended December 31, 2006 also includes $5.0 million of share-based compensation expense and $2.3 million of costs associated with the opposition to the OGD's change in approach. Additionally, 2005 included $6.0 million of license fee revenue.
"ViroPharma's primary goal since its inception has been to develop and deliver novel therapeutics to patients suffering from serious infectious diseases; 2006 was a remarkable year of progress toward achieving that goal," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "During the year, we presented important new data from each of our late stage clinical product opportunities -- maribavir and HCV-796 -- and moved each of them into the next stage of clinical evaluation. We also began preclinical evaluation of a next generation anti-HCV compound with our partners at Wyeth. Importantly, our clinical development endeavors were again fully funded by the cash provided by sales of Vancocin."
Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's chief financial officer and chief operating officer continued, "Our excellent financial results for the full year, in part generated by the $166.6 million in net sales of Vancocin, continued to position the company well for future growth. Importantly, during the fourth quarter of 2006, we achieved net Vancocin sales of $38.5 million as our wholesalers moved their inventory levels down by two to three weeks compared to where we ended the third quarter of 2006. In 2007, we anticipate continued strong growth in net Vancocin sales of between 17 and 23 percent over that of 2006, and additional improvements in our product margins over those of the full year of 2006. This year will be one marked by a focus on product development. As such, our guidance for 2007 reflects those increased expenses as we continue to move maribavir and HCV-796 through clinical evaluation, and make important new investments into the Vancocin business."
The Company recorded income tax expense of $41.9 million for the twelve months of 2006. In 2005, an income tax benefit of $47.8 million was recorded in the fourth quarter of December 31, 2005 to establish deferred tax assets. In addition, for the twelve months of 2005, the Company recorded $10.0 million in income tax expense. These two items resulted in a net income tax benefit of $37.8 million for 2005.
Net income in the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2006 was $18.0 million and $66.7 million, respectively, compared to net income of $72.7 million and $113.7 million for the same periods in 2005. Net income per share for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 was $0.26 per share, basic and $0.25 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $1.21 per share, basic, and $1.17 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2005. Net income per share for the year ended December 31, 2006 was $0.97 per share, basic, and $0.95 per share, diluted, compared to net income of $2.56 per share, basic, and $2.02, diluted, for the same period in 2005.
The decrease in the year-end net income for both comparative periods primarily resulted from the change in income tax from a benefit in 2005 to an expense in 2006. Offsetting factors included the impacts of increased operating income, decreased interest expense and increased interest income in 2006.
Operating Highlights
During the quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2006, net sales of Vancocin decreased 4.6 percent and increased 32.4 percent, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2005. The quarter comparison was impacted by the timing of wholesaler purchasing decisions. The twelve months increased primarily due to the impact of price increases. The Company believes, based upon data reported by IMS Health Incorporated, that prescriptions during the quarter and year ended December 31, 2006 exceeded prescriptions in the 2005 periods by 19.0 percent and 23.2 percent, respectively.
The gross product margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased in all comparative periods. For the twelve-month periods, the gross margin rate increased to 88.6 percent from 85.7 percent. The increases are the result of the price increases and lower cost of sales per unit. The lower cost per unit primarily results from the sale of units carrying a decreased inventory cost which were manufactured by OSG Norwich beginning in the second quarter of 2006.
The total remaining costs and expenses associated with operating income were $11.5 million and $7.3 million, for the fourth quarter of 2006 and 2005, respectively, and $49.4 million and $26.2 million, for the twelve months of 2006 and 2005, respectively.
The Company recorded $11.9 million of income tax expense in the fourth quarter of 2006 and $41.9 million for the twelve months of 2006, which are based on a combined federal and state estimated annual effective tax rate of 38.6 percent in the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2006, and include the effects of various permanent differences, the impact of provision to return adjustments and the impact of adjustments to state apportionment rates. This is not comparable to the 2005 periods as the Company released a portion of the valuation allowance to establish deferred tax assets in the fourth quarter of 2005. The Company currently anticipates an effective tax rate of 38.1 percent for the year ended December 31, 2007. However, this may be reduced due to the orphan drug designation for maribavir received in February 2007.
Working Capital Highlights
As of December 31, 2006, ViroPharma's working capital was approximately $266 million, which represents a $100 million increase from December 31, 2005.
Looking ahead in 2007
ViroPharma is commenting upon previously announced guidance for the year 2007 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
For the year 2007, ViroPharma expects the following
-- Net product sales are expected to be $195 to $205 million;
-- Gross margin rate for Vancocin is expected to exceed 90 percent;
-- Research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and
administrative (MG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be $60 to $72 million.
-- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be in the range of $7.5
to $8.5 million. Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and
development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A)
expenses are expected to be between $67.5 and $80.5 million.
>:D >:D
will be an interesting day for VPHM IMHO
cheers
Oliver
fyi (IRC quotation):
Destocking by the wholesalers can't be controlled. The good news is
the wholesalers will restock by a week or so in the first quarter to
be where they were before 3rd qtr restocking and 4th qtr destocking.
Wholesalers may add a 2nd week due to increasing demand in the
March/April time frame. If you look at the 3rd and 4th quarter
together, the average sales for the last 2 qtrs is 46.7795 million.
Annualized, it equals 187.118 million. Multiply the annualized sales
by 1.094 to reflect the January 2007 price increase and you arrive
at 2007 sales of 204.707 million. This is the upper end of the sales
guidance for 2007 (205 million is the upper limit on the guidance
range. Given the historical weakness of the third and fourth
quarters and prescription growth of roughly 20 percent, it is
apparent 2007 Vancocin sales will exceed management's 2007 sales
guidance easily. This is important as operating expenses will
increase significantly due to 2 Maribivir Phase III trials in 2007
and to a lesser extent, continuing HCV-796 trials. In my opinion,
ViroPharma is in the cat bird's seat. Read on.
Gross margins improved significantly to 94.76%. With the price
increase, the gross margin will increas to 95.21%. The gross margin
will fluctuate due to manufacturing yields. I believe the yields
will increase a little due to the learning curve.
Income tax rates may be reduced in 2007 due to the orphan drug
dsignation for Maribivir. Also, when the FDA reverses the OGD this
year, or if nothing happens this year with respect to the OGD
decision, management may release an additional portion of the
deferred tax valuation allowance.
Cash, equivalents and short term investments total $255 million at
year end and working capital totals $266 million. This year we will
move closer to a half billion in cash and working capital.
please read attachment carefully
Down 11% today on the lower reported earnings. This has got to be cheap for this stock now. Maybe a good entry point.
my only stock are IPXL & VPHM todays price action is a good buying opportunity IMHO, stock is recovering slightly.... 8)
cheers
Oliver
this was one of the most manipulated sessions I have ever seen, the wrong information posted by Forbes:
ViroPharma 4Q Net Income Falls
Drugmaker ViroPharma Inc. on Wednesday said fourth-quarter earnings fell 75 percent as net product sales decreased. Net income totaled $18 million or 25 cents per share, versus $72.7 million, or $1.17 per share in the year-ago period. Revenue fell 5 percent to $38.6 million from $40.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Net product sales for its Vancocin treatment for intestinal bacterial infections fell 5 percent to $38.5 million, while milestone and license fee revenue was steady at $141,000. Total costs and expenses increased 10 percent to $13.5 million, with marketing, general and administrative costs more than doubling to $7.1 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected net income of 20 cents per share on revenue of $40 million.
For the year, net income fell 41 percent to $66.7 million, or 95 cents per share, from $113.7 million, or $2.02 per share in 2005. Revenue grew 26 percent to $167.2 million from $132.4 million in 2005.All serious investors knew that a comparison to Last Year's year-end results would give the wrong "Optics", and sure enough it did.
Why?
It was stated in the VPHM news release:
The decrease in the year-end net income for both comparative periods primarily resulted from the change in income tax from a benefit in 2005 to an expense in 2006. Offsetting factors included the impacts of increased operating income, decreased interest expense and increased interest income in 2006.Briefing.com update:
VPHM JMP Securities Mkt Outperform $15 » $18
please read attached conference script 8)
cheers
Oliver
fyi; quoted chart and
attachments (ready for download)
8)
just FYI:
1)
ViroPharma "market perform," target price raised
Thursday, March 01, 2007 9:11:18 AM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, March 1 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "market perform" rating on ViroPharma Inc (ticker: VPHM), while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $15 to $18.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 4Q EPS ahead of the estimates and the consensus. The biggest upcoming catalyst for ViroPharma is likely to be the Phase II HCV-796 data for chronic hepatitis C in 1H07, leading to the commencement of Phase III in 1H08, the analysts say. The company's share price is expected to be boosted by pipeline progress, JMP Securities adds. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $1.18 to $1.11.
2)
Viropharma "buy," estimates raised
Friday, March 02, 2007 8:57:30 AM ET
Lazard Capital Markets
NEW YORK, March 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital maintain their "buy" rating on Viropharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM), while raising their estimates for the company. The target price is set to $21.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 4Q diluted EPS ahead of the estimates on account of lower-than-expected expenses. Future catalysts for Viropharma's share price include the data from HCV-796 Phase II trial starting in 3Q07, the initiation of the Maribavir Phase III SOT trial in 2Q07, a Maribavir European partnership in 1H07 and a decision on the Vancocin generic drug applications from the OGD/FDA, the analysts say. The GAAP EPS estimate for 2007 has been raised from $1.07 to $1.15.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 22, 2007, 05:32:46 AM
If we visualize the MACD (solid red) as a hockey puck, and the signal line (dotted red) as the hockey stick, we can see that the "puck" is sliding back toward the "stick," beautifully position for a "slap shot" into the goal, just as it was last November, when VPHM had a nice rally to the 15.55-15.56 Major Resistance.
For those of you interested in technical analysis, I want to follow up on that "slap shot" signal (for lack of a better term). It's one of my favorites, and it can be very profitable, particularly if shows up in conjunction with a pattern in the chart, as it did in all three of these examples below.
Quote
There's no reason, technically, to expect the percentage gain to be the same,
It actually came out a little better. The gain on the January signal was 24.7% vs. the 20.3% gain in November.
Quote
but it would seem that coming out of a nice pattern breakout like this, the target certainly ought to get MADE, and quite possibly exceeded on this rally.
The DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S target of 16.95 was exceeded, I suspect at least in part, because of the tremendous strength of that pattern.
Quote from: Melf Elf on January 26, 2007, 01:37:49 AM
Structurally, since blasting out of the Bullish Inverse H&S Island Reversal (with No Right Shoulder) on August 24, 2006 VPHM has been a thing of beauty, technically, as the patterns have evolved and broken out, support has been re-test and held, and targets have gotten MADE.
Not only was that the case on the upside, VPHM acted just as well, technically, in achieving its Double Top target of 15.98 this last week.
We'll take a look at the chart in a moment, but first, notice the "Reverse Slap Shot" Signal (for lack of a better term) issued at the Double Top in late February.
See how the MACD crossed below its signal line, then moved up for a re-test of its signal line? It "got stuffed" right there, similar to a basketball player, going in for a lay up.
Those slap shot signals don't always work. Nothing does, as far as I know. But, when that signal is issued in combination with a pattern breakdown (The Double Top that we're going to examine next), or the upside pattern breakouts that VPHM had in November and January, more often than not, I find that the signal is good.
Although the Double Top target of 15.98 MADE on the
downside, and it's generally considered to be much more fun to achieve targets on the
upside, for technical merit, VPHM still has to be scored....
:D...10...10...10...10...10...10...11... :D
Judge #7, Melf Elf, continues to be a sucker for beautiful technicals.
First, we analyze charts, then we have to play them. I always find the former much, much easier than the latter.
The "Reverse Slap Shot" signal was issued on February 23, when the MACD "got stuffed" at the back-test of its signal line, then turned down, suggesting that a Double Top was in.
The close that day was 17.95. The highs of the Double Top were 18.39 and 18.24, so the stop on the trade would be above 18.39, so 18.40, or a few pennies above that for a minor upside fakeout.
Risk on the trade: a loss of about 2½%.
The "pivot" of the Double Top, or "M" top is 17.11, the intervening low between the 18.39 and 18.24 tops. A break of 17.11 would put a target of 15.98 IN PLAY, for a gain of 11% on the trade if the target MADE.
Risk:Reward better than 1:4. Very nice.
Math for the Double Top Target
18.24 - High (I always use the more conservative of the highs
17.11 - Pivot low
18.24 - 17.11 = 1.13 points
17.11 - 1.13 = Target: 15.98
I didn't take the trade because of two of my many demons. >:D >:D >:D
Demon #1: I don't like shorting stocks that are bullish, especially stocks that have been as bullish as VPHM was off the July low of 7.07.
I need to get over that when I've got strong technical evidence, as I did, that it was very likely that a Double Top was in, and when the risk:reward on the trade is that favorable (1:4).
The Double Top already had broken below 17.11 before earnings came out, so it was confirmed.
Demon #2: I generally don't like having a position at all ahead of earnings unless I've got the cushion of already having a gain in the stock, let alone entering a short position in a stock that has been bullish, and in a stock in which I expect good earnings.
I need to get over that, too. Earnings got reported. Earnings were fine. The 15.98 target still got MADE.
"Follow what you see, Melf, not what you think."
The demons are tough, aren't they? >:D >:D
That said...
What I'm seeing now, is VPHM holding at the neckline (blue down-sloping line), with the Kumo (Cloud) coming up to support it. The bottom of the Kumo is at 15.125. Friday's low was 15.19.
On the upside, the 16.25 - 16.47 gap area from earnings looks to be a magnet for a reflex rally, at a minimum, since the overall chart still is bullish, and no serious technical damage was done.
It's a shame that VPHM fell all the way to 14.56 on the reporting of earnings, because I'd want my stop under that low, but the fact that VPHM recovered so well into the close suggests that the swoosh to 14.56 was a technically-driven over-reaction on the downside, due to the facts that:
1. The Double Top had broken
2. On earnings, VPHM gapped down right below the trendline (purple) off the July, 2006 low of 7.07, which likely brought in some additional technical selling.
That broken trendline now sits up in the 16.25 - 16.47 gap area, serving as a magnet for a re-test. The 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) and 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line) also are up there, at 16.37 and 16.475, respectively.
From Friday's close of 15.32, the risk on a stop out at 14.55 is a loss of 5%.
If the target of 16.46 (the gap fill) gets MADE, the gain is 7.4%.
That's about a 1:1½ risk:reward. I like at least a 1:2.
If VPHM trades down to 15.10...15.11...15.12...15.13, something like that, I'll probably play it. If the general market isn't going nuts again, and if Scottrade isn't disconnecting me every half minute.
:D
Two main support levels in my opinion:
around 15$ and 14.50$
please download latest attached Lazard report!
still holding VPHM & IPXL, both stocks will be outperform even in a bear market.
chart quotation:
Quote from: Melf Elf on March 03, 2007, 05:38:30 AM
If VPHM trades down to 15.10...15.11...15.12...15.13, something like that, I'll probably play it. If the general market isn't going nuts again, and if Scottrade isn't disconnecting me every half minute.
:D
so are you playing VPHM again Melf Elf? >:D
I like your demon theory ;D
still invested in VPHM, IPXL;
also QID.
Watchlist: OPBL, SLP, PTCH and FRPT !
cheers
Oliver
fyi:
IMS Health Weekly Prescription Continued
Total prescriptions of 4,761 for the week ended 3/2/07 is, I believe,
a new record (I will confirm later today). Last weeks total
prescriptions was 4,488. New prescriptions this week are 4,067, also a
new record. Last weeks new prescriptions were 3,899. The jump in
prescriptions from last week to this week are very strong.
Short VPHM -- Dilution ;)
Viropharma Shares Fall on Notes Offering
Tuesday March 20, 12:03 pm ET
Viropharma Stock Drops on Company's Plan for $200 Million Senior Notes Offering
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of biopharmaceutical company ViroPharma Inc. sank Tuesday after the company said it plans to sell $200 million in convertible senior subordinated notes due 2017.
The stock fell $1.15, or 7.6 percent, to $14.05 in midday trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Shares have traded between $7.07 and $18.39 over the last 52 weeks.
Late Monday, the Exton, Pa.-based company said it filed a shelf registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission, allowing the company to offer convertible debt securities and common stock from time to time. Underwriters have an option to buy an additional $30 million in senior notes.
Proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes, including potential strategic investments or acquisitions of products or other companies.
In February, the company reaffirmed its guidance for 2007 product sales between $195 million and $205 million. The company's key product on the market is Vancocin, which treats gastrointestinal tract infections. Net product sales totaled $166.6 million in 2006.
ViroPharma Prices $225 Million in Convertible Senior Notes Due March 2017
Tuesday March 20, 11:24 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., March 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced the pricing of $225 million aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due March 2017, pursuant to a registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. In addition, the underwriters have been granted an option to purchase up to an additional $25 million aggregate principal amount of Notes from ViroPharma.
The Notes will pay interest semiannually at a rate of 2.00 percent per annum. The Notes will be convertible, in certain circumstances, at an initial conversion rate of 52.9998 shares per $1,000 principal amount of Notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $18.87, a 32.50 percent conversion premium based on the last reported sale price of $14.24 per share of ViroPharma's common stock on March 20, 2007. Upon conversion, holders will receive shares of common stock, subject to ViroPharma's option to irrevocably elect to settle all future conversions in cash up to the principal amount of the Notes, and shares for any excess.
ViroPharma estimates the net proceeds from this offering will be approximately $217.6 million after deducting estimated discounts, commissions and expenses.
The net proceeds of the offering will be used to fund general corporate purposes including strategic investments or acquisitions of products, technologies or complementary businesses. No commitments or agreements have currently been made for any specific acquisitions. ViroPharma also intends to apply $20.9 million of the net proceeds of this offering towards the cost of the convertible note hedge transactions entered into in connection with the offering. These transactions are expected to reduce the potential dilution to ViroPharma's common stock upon future conversions of the Notes.
Goldman, Sachs & Co. is the sole book running manager for the offering and CreditSuisse and Piper Jaffray are serving as co-managers for the offering.
fyi:
Viropharma Inc forms bullish "Continuation Wedge" chart pattern
Mar 28, 2007, 4:00 PM ET
NEW YORK, Mar 28 (Recognia Alert Wire) -- A "Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Viropharma Inc (NASDAQ: VPHM). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $14.30 to the range of $18.20 - $19.10. The pattern formed over 26 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved.
A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue. Prices edge steadily lower in a converging pattern i.e. there are lower highs and lower lows. The technical event occurs when prices break above the upper trendline, thereby confirming the pattern. This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was recognized by Recognia Inc.'s patented pattern recognition technology.
Scotsman, your opinion is appreciated ;)
cheers from Singapore
O.
all I see is two consecutive bear pennants... Certainly not a entry point signal for me.
Oliver,
seems like real strange news to me "VPHM formin a falling wedge" but hey ???
As far as my thoughts, pulling the resistance line off the $18 level (in green) doesn't make a lot of sense on this chart and certainly doesn't fit the falling wedge pattern. I would prefer to use the descending channel/wedge line coming off the high of the day after the big red candle. This descending channel, if broken to the upside, would give me a $17 target (high of 16.25, low 13.27 => range = 2.50, breakout at 14.50 => target of $17). I've played a lot of falling wedge breakouts, and the problem is that they are not super reliable. Also, the ones that seem to work best are the big ones, that have several bounces off support and resistance, so they are clearly defined. Having said that, we did see som volume pickup on the 2 positive days after it broke hat supposed resistance line.
I also think that in this scenario it is most important to look at support and resistance and calculate risk/rewards baseed on that to develop an appropriate strategy. In the bullish case, right now, Upside resistance right now appears to be the 14.40-44 region and then just above that at 14.58-60. we could buy a print of 14.45, and have clear support between 13.85 and 13.75, so a stop below there would (say 13.73) would represent a risk of about 4.85% (although I have to say a slightly more conservaitve stop below 13.60 might be moe appropriate). So buying a print of 14.45, With a $17 target, we would be talking about a potential reward of 17.5%. So for a new entry, the risk:reward isn't too bad, although there may also be resistance around 15.60 to get through too.
However, Buddjas1 has a point about the rising wedges too - having a look at the 30 minute chart, you can see a clear descending channel, and that VPHM has formed 2 bearish patterns since breaking down. The first was a descending triangle that VPHM gapped down out of on 20 March. This triangle breakdown put a target of $13 IN PLAY. VPHM really needs to get bove 14.60 to put this downside target on hold. The second is the rising wedge that has formed since then. A move below 14.15 would constitute a breakdown of this pattern, and may represent another wave of selling, putting a target of 13.50 IN PLAY.
I'm not totally sure what killed VPHM's stock price (was it the just market meltdown at the end of Feb?) but it does look like VPHM hit an important support zone for the stock at 13.75. Of course, Oliver, I expect you still own VPHM, I know you are a long term holder. I would look for a resolution of this latest pattern to determine the next direction of the stock. If you are looking at managing your current position, a red candle breaking down through $14.15 would probably be a clear warning of a possible imminent breakdown, and you could decide to sell that, but given the longer term (daily) chart patterns of support, a stop just below 13.50 should offer reasonable protection.
Man, ok now you got me thinking.
The real problem is that looking at the long term chart, VPHM doesn't exactly look bullish here. While there is clearly some support at 13.75, $12.80-$13 looks to be the stronger support level. Also there is the possibility of a bearish H&S top. $15.60 looks to be key resistance, from the lows of late 05, when VPHM was up in the $20 range, and even if VPHM gets a rally, a rally to that level could make the right shoulder of that pattern. The technical target of the H&S top would be $9.10, right back in the doldrums.
SO I have to say I'm undecided about VPHM. A break above 14.45 could lead to a rally, but i'd be real careful about 15.60 resistance. A breakdown and we could very easily see VPHM sitting at $13. Right now, its hard to know which way the market will swing it, so I would watch the price action to see how it develops.
Hope all this helps Oliver,
ST
and what did VPHM do after all this discussion???? That's right, it gapped down below buddjas's rising wedge this morning, making it look very much like a bearish continuation pattern. During the morning VPHM rallied right up to the base of the wedge, even poking its head through, but the best it really managed was to fill the gap and find resistance at 14.25. That breakdown puts a target of 13.53 IN PLAY
I have to admit that I shorted this downside breakdown today. It seemed like a reasonable short term play, and with a stop above 14.25 (although above 14.44 would be more conservative), my 14.05 entry represents fairly minimal risk, barring a gap up. My target for this short is the $13 level, so I'll see if VPHM gets that far, but for now it doesn't look terribly strong, and i anticipate further downside.
just to let you know I closed my short postition this morning - VPHM was loking positive, markets are up, and hey, I don't really like being short nyway. It was only sall and I only lost about .10 on the trade. VPHM looks better tody, but still needs to get over 14.45 resistance. If it did this, I think it would look a lot better.
fyi:
The FDA dockets page
http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/dockets/06p0124/06p0124.htm
was updated with 2 items:
1) http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/dockets/06p0124/06P-0124-emc0001-02.pdf
Letter by Reza Fassihi, Ph.D., AAPS Fellow, Professor of Biopharmaceutics and Industrial Pharmacy, Temple University School of Pharmacy, Philadelphia, PA 19140, requesting that ".......the OGD reconsider the potential approval of an ANDA of Vancocin Capsules based solely on in vitro dissolution testing. This agent is representative of a larger class of locally acting gastrointestinal agents for which the most appropriate means of determining bioequivalence has been debated by experts for several years. Until a better understanding of the relationship between in vitro dissolution and in vivo performance of locally acting agents such as Vancocin capsules is determined, this method to determine bioequivalence is not in the best interest of patients. In the absence of such data, I strongly encourage the OGD to require clinical trials to determine bioequivalence for Vancocin Capsules if the therapeutic objectives are an equivalent clinical response."
2) http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/dockets/06p0124/06P-0124-emc0002-02.pdf
Viropharma letter to FDA dated march 16, 2007, outlining they have initiated a study with Temple University to establish the appropriate in vitro conditions (representing the sick GI environment) that one should use in dissolution testing to arrive at bioequivalence for locally acting drugs. The test compares the pH and temperature in the stomach, SI, and colon of CDAD patients and healthy volunteers, as well as gastroenterocolonic motility. Letter is accompanied by detailed protocol.
Viropharma is taking action ;)
just FYI:
Study by VPHM to Help Long-Term
ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) plans to conduct an exploratory study of
C.difficile infected patients in order to prove that the
gastrointestinal track of these patients varies greatly, not only
between infected patients, but significantly enough from healthy
patients that in vitro dissolution testing should not be considered
adequate enough to prove bioequivalence for a potential generic oral
vancomycin (Vancocin).
We do not see a potential generic alternative until 2010. By that
time we believe ViroPharma will be a dramatically different looking
company with potentially both Maribavir and HCV-796 on the market.
We continue to rate the shares a Buy with a $21 target.
http://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=099b9877&t=VPHM
I like the chart here...back above the 9sma, too.
Nibbled some @ $14.36
GLTA...Jody
just FYI:
Study by VPHM to Help Long-Term
ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) plans to conduct an exploratory study of
C.difficile infected patients in order to prove that the
gastrointestinal track of these patients varies greatly, not only
between infected patients, but significantly enough from healthy
patients that in vitro dissolution testing should not be considered
adequate enough to prove bioequivalence for a potential generic oral
vancomycin (Vancocin).
We do not see a potential generic alternative until 2010. By that
time we believe ViroPharma will be a dramatically different looking
company with potentially both Maribavir and HCV-796 on the market.
We continue to rate the shares a Buy with a $21 target.
http://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=099b9877&t=VPHM
(ty LaOnda)
I probably wouldn't have nibbled a bit if I'd seen your "short" post Terliso :( I'm scared now! :-\
Schering-Plough, partners present data on hepatitis C drug
By Robert Daniel
Last Update: 2:50 AM ET Apr 11, 2007
TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Schering-Plough, (SGP ) the Kenilworth, N.J., drugmaker, said it is exploring therapeutic ways to use its Pegintron drug combined with investigational antiviral agents "to optimize treatment for patients with more difficult-to-treat forms" of
chronic hepatitis C, "such as those with HCV genotype 1 and nonresponders to previous therapy." And SGP said it is collaborating with Wyeth/ViroPharma (WYE ) (VPHM ) and Idenix/Novartis (IDIX ) (NVS ) to conduct separate in-vitro studies of SGP's boceprevir combined
with its partners' respective investigational HCV polymerase inhibitors. Boceprevir is an investigational oral HCV protease inhibitor in Phase II development to treat chronic hepatitis C. These experiments suggest that boceprevir combined with either of the polymerase inhibitors from Wyeth/ViroPharma or Idenix/Novartis "achieves additive antiviral activity and a complementary resistance profile; the combination of two agents increases the barrier for
developing resistance to either drug alone," SGP said.
Schering-Plough will be presenting at the European Association for the Study of the Liver annual meeting in Barcelona, Spain, on April 11 through 15.
looks like VPHM has got come upside momentum back!! `nice to see it get into that gap!
double bottom play ?
Quote from: 422fwhp on April 09, 2007, 11:12:32 AM
I like the chart here...back above the 9sma, too.
Nibbled some @ $14.36
GLTA...Jody
Still holding and looks to be just getting started, imo....of course it will come back to the 9sma for a healthy check....hopefully it stays above.
GLTA...Jody
:o
Still holding...should come down for a healthy 'check' of the 9sma...hopefully it stays above it.
GLTA...Jody
VPHM update:
1)
ViroPharma "market outperform"
Monday, April 16, 2007 7:06:40 AM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, April 16 (newratings.com) - In a research note published on April 13, analyst Adam Cutler of JMP Securities reiterates his "market outperform" rating on ViroPharma Inc (ticker: VPHM). The target price is set to $18
2)
ViroPharma "buy," target price raised
Monday, April 16, 2007 10:18:50 AM ET
Lazard Capital Markets
NEW YORK, April 16 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital reiterate their "buy" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM). Lazard raises their VPHM tgt to $24 from $21 after the co announced solid Phase Ib combination HCV-796 trial efficacy results at EASL on
Friday, in line with their expectations. The firm sees catalysts as: a decision from the OGD/FDA on Vancocin generic drug applications; initiation of Maribavir Phase III SOT trial in 2Q07; and data from HCV- 796 Phase II trial beginning in 3Q07.
The target price has been raised from $21 to $24.
Lazard update:
ViroPharma "buy," target price raised
Tuesday, April 17, 2007 8:43:23 AM ET
Lazard Capital Markets
NEW YORK, April 17 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital maintain their "buy" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM), while reducing their estimates for the company.
The target price has been raised from $21 to $24.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company has posted robust Phase Ib combination HCV-796 trial efficacy results, in-line with the estimates. The trial exhibited the safety and efficacy of HCV-796 monotherapy, with an additional benefit of an improved resistance profile, the analysts say. ViroPharma is expected to report annual interest expenses of $15 million associated with a convertible debt financing, which the company had undertaken in March this year, Lazard Capital adds. The EPS estimates for 2007 and 2008 have been reduced from $1.09 to $1.00 and from $1.23 to $1.12, respectively.
nice chart set up!!
Terliso, you like the crossing EMA lines ;D ?
cheers
O.
fyi:
VPHM: Short Interest UP 35.5% to 9.5M in Apr 2007
Tuesday , April 24, 2007 16:22ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 35.5% to 9,538,746 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2007.
SYMBOL MARCH APRIL CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 7,038,107 9,538,746 +2,500,639 +35.53% 5
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,013,930, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
it seems that I am the only VPHM investor left on the 3SoF board ;D & 8)
just FYI, tomorrow earnings will be better as expected >:D
big news
1)
VPHM: To Release Q1 Results May 02 [BMO]
Tuesday , May 01, 2007 13:00ET
Viropharma, Incorporated (Nasdaq NM: VPHM) is scheduled to release its Q1 financial results on May 02, 2007, before the market opens (BMO).
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES:
Q1 Revenue: $46.76 million
Q1 EPS: $0.26 per share
PREVIOUS PERIOD:
Prev Q1 Revenue: $29.37 million
Prev Q1 EPS: $0.12 per share
2)
ViroPharma Announces Decision To Develop And Commercialize Maribavir In Europe
Tuesday , May 01, 2007 16:20ET
EXTON, Pa., May 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced the decision to establish a wholly owned European subsidiary to execute on the European regulatory strategy and commercialization of maribavir, ViroPharma's selective oral antiviral targeting cytomegalovirus, without a strategic partner.
"This is an exciting time for ViroPharma as we have made the decision to launch our European initiatives to meet the medical needs of European transplant patients," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "Maribavir is an extraordinary compound; it could make a major difference for physicians and patients throughout the world. Our management team has vast experience in European commercialization and development, and we already have the interest of many European key opinion leaders thanks to our strong Phase 2 data and ongoing Phase 3 program. We believe that establishing European operations will provide numerous benefits to us and our stockholders, including the potential for an ex-U.S. revenue stream that we anticipate will significantly offset the necessary infrastructure investments; this is the best way for ViroPharma to maximize the value of maribavir."
ViroPharma has begun to establish the European development and commercialization infrastructure, and is implementing its European regulatory strategy.
"We believe that Europe offers a strong growth opportunity for ViroPharma, so it is appropriate that we have now begun to establishing our footprint there," commented Daniel Soland, ViroPharma chief commercial officer. "We anticipate that we will have a strong exclusivity proposition in Europe, similar to that of the U.S. In addition, the European market dynamics are similar to that of the U.S. market. There are a comparable number of transplants each year, and a concentrated field of treating physicians: the top 100 centers perform more than 70 percent of the transplant procedures. It is clear to us that we can develop this infrastructure, which we can also leverage to other product opportunities, at a moderate cost - and through it, bring to market for the first time in nearly a decade an entirely new anti-CMV agent for European transplant patients."
3)
Robert G. Pietrusko Joins ViroPharma as Vice President of Global Regulatory Affairs and Quality
Tuesday , May 01, 2007 16:21ET
EXTON, Pa., May 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced today that Robert Pietrusko, Pharm. D. has joined the company and it's management team as vice president of global regulatory affairs and quality. Dr. Pietrusko will oversee the planning, implementation and optimization of ViroPharma's worldwide quality and regulatory strategies. His focus will be on helping to guide the development of ViroPharma's key pipeline opportunities, including maribavir, HCV-796, and NTCD; providing regulatory support for ViroPharma's physician education efforts in C. difficile-associated disease and assuring patient safety; providing additional leadership in quality assurance and compliance; and providing regulatory strategy and support for any additional compounds acquired by ViroPharma. He joins ViroPharma from his previous post as senior vice president of worldwide regulatory affairs for Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
"Now more than ever, it is essential that a biopharmaceutical company has a world class regulatory affairs strategy and capability enabling it to work closely with regulatory authorities in assuring patient safety and bringing important new drugs to market," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "In that regard, ViroPharma is fortunate to be able to attract someone of Bob's caliber, and I welcome him to the company."
Continued de Rosen, "Bob brings over two decades of pharmaceutical regulatory and quality knowledge - first at GlaxoSmithKline and most recently at Millennium - to ViroPharma's already strong management team, along with a wealth of product approval experience. He has played a significant role in the approval of 11 new products during his career to date, including Millennium's Velcade(R) (bortezomib) for multiple myeloma and GlaxoSmithKline's Havrix(R) (hepatitis A vaccine, inactivated) for prevention of Hepatitis A, and is one of the most knowledgeable regulatory professionals in anti-infectives and antivirals today. We expect this vast knowledge and regulatory experience to be instrumental to the regulatory success of our clinical compounds, and toward the achievement of our corporate growth goals."
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports First Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Wednesday May 2, 7:30 am ET
EXTON, Pa., May 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2007.
Highlights since the beginning of 2007 included:
Clinical Pipeline:
-- Additional HCV-796 phase 1b data highlighting antiviral activity and Tolerability presented at 2007 EASL conference;
-- Enrollment in the 500 mg cohorts (non-responders and treatment naive) of our HCV-796 phase 2 trial is ongoing for second quarter completion;
-- Four-week treatment data from the 500 mg cohorts of our HCV-796 phase 2 trial anticipated in third quarter 2007; 12-week data from the 500 mg cohorts anticipated in fourth quarter 2007;
-- Start of maribavir Phase 3 in liver transplant expected in second
quarter 2007; and
-- Decision reached to commercialize maribavir in Europe, independent of strategic partners.
Vancocin®:
-- Vancocin achieved $49 million in net sales;
-- Prescriptions for Vancocin grew 13 percent compared to first quarter of 2006, as estimated by IMS; and
-- Wholesaler inventory remained consistent with that at end of year 2006.
Financial:
-- Successful convertible debt offering completed, increasing cash by
$219 million;
-- Working capital increased to $508 million; and
-- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew to $481 million.
Net sales of Vancocin® were $49.0 million for the first quarter of 2007, which compares to $29.2 million for the first quarter of 2006.
Operating income was $32.9 million for the first quarter of 2007, which compares to $13.4 million for the first quarter of 2006. Operating income for 2007 was impacted by increases in gross product margin, partially offset by increased costs to support our CMV and HCV development programs.
"The first quarter of 2007 was one of tremendous momentum throughout the organization; we made great strides in moving the clinical pipeline steadily forward, and our financial results for the period were very strong," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "We can today confirm our previously stated clinical timelines for 2007, including our expectation that we will start our second Phase 3 study of maribavir in solid organ transplant patients, and complete enrollment in the 500 mg cohorts of our Phase 2 clinical study of HCV-796 during the second quarter of this year. As such, we expect to disclose our 4-week treatment data from the 500 mg cohorts of this Phase 2 study of HCV-796 in the third quarter of 2007, and then to follow it with 12-week treatment data from the 500 mg cohorts in the fourth quarter. Operationally, prescriptions for Vancocin continued to be strong, up 13 percent over that of the first quarter of 2006. This, along with the completion of our convertible offering, drove our working capital up by $241 million to $508 million, the highest point in the company's history."
Continued de Rosen, "We recently made the important decision to commercialize maribavir not only in the U.S., but also in Europe, independent of strategic partners. We believe that this decision will provide great value to our shareholders over the long term, due to the value that we expect to be provided by commercializing this product in the U.S. and Europe. Cytomegalovirus is a worldwide disease; there are approximately the same numbers of transplant patients in Europe as there are here in the U.S. each year, all of whom are at heightened risk of potentially deadly CMV disease. As such, we will continue to be expeditious in our development, but focused on the global ramifications of this deadly disease."
Net income was $22.1 million for the first quarter of 2007, which compares to $8.2 million for the first quarter of 2006. Net income per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 was $0.32 per share, basic and $0.31 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.12 per share, basic and diluted, for the same period in 2006. The increase in net income primarily resulted from the impacts of increased operating income.
Operating Highlights
During the quarter ended March 31, 2007, net sales of Vancocin increased 67.7 percent compared to the same period in 2006 primarily due to units sold and the impact of price increases during 2007 and 2006. The quarter comparison was impacted by the timing of wholesaler purchasing decisions which included a decrease in wholesalers' inventory levels during the 2006 period, as compared to the 2007 period where wholesalers' inventory remained relatively constant. Based upon data reported by IMS Health Incorporated, prescriptions during the quarter ended March 31, 2007 exceeded prescriptions in the 2006 period by 12.9 percent.
The gross product margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased to over 90 percent from approximately 80 percent. The increase is the result of the price increases and lower cost of sales per unit. The lower cost per unit primarily results from the sale of units during the first quarter of 2007, which were manufactured by OSG Norwich and carried a lower inventory cost than the units sold during the first quarter of 2006 that were manufactured by Eli Lilly & Co.
The total remaining costs and expenses associated with operating income were $13.9 million and $10.3 million for the quarters ended March 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively.
The Company's effective income tax rate was 39.4 percent and 40.1 percent for the quarters ended March 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively. Income tax expense includes federal and state income tax at statutory rates and the effects of various permanent differences.
Working Capital Highlights
As of March 31, 2007, ViroPharma's working capital was approximately $507.7 million, which represents a $241.2 million increase from December 31, 2006. This increase is primarily the result of the senior convertible notes issued on March 26, 2007 and cash flows provided by sales of Vancocin, partially offset by the purchase of the Company's corporate headquarters building.
The Company issued $250.0 million of 2 percent senior convertible notes due March 2017 in a public offering. Net proceeds from the issuance of the senior convertible notes were $241.8 million. The Company used a portion of the net proceeds to purchase a call spread for $23.3 million.
Looking ahead in 2007
ViroPharma is commenting upon previously announced guidance for the year 2007 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
For the year 2007, ViroPharma expects the following:
-- Net product sales are expected to be $195 to $205 million;
-- Gross margin rate for Vancocin is expected to exceed 90 percent;
-- Research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be $60 to $72 million.
-- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be in the range of $7.5 to $8.5 million. Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) expenses are expected to be between $67.5 and $80.5 million.
Quote from: buddjas1 on January 08, 2007, 05:40:00 PM
Looks very inticing on the surface. The trouble with VPHM has always been valuation. Because vanco is unpatented and the FDA is, as of today, willing to permit a showing of equivalence without clinical trials, VPHM could easily drop to single digits in one day again, if the FDA denies VPHM's "appeal." Too much risk here for me.
buddjas1 I totally disagree, it is the pipeline (HCV796 & Maribavir) that is much more interesting from now on.
The legal case pending on FDA is very strong.
Generic production from Vancocin is very complex and earliest entry point could be end of 2008.
just my 2 cents
Oliver
Quote from: la-onda on May 02, 2007, 08:13:21 PM
Quote from: buddjas1 on January 08, 2007, 05:40:00 PM
Looks very inticing on the surface. The trouble with VPHM has always been valuation. Because vanco is unpatented and the FDA is, as of today, willing to permit a showing of equivalence without clinical trials, VPHM could easily drop to single digits in one day again, if the FDA denies VPHM's "appeal." Too much risk here for me.
buddjas1 I totally disagree, it is the pipeline (HCV796 & Maribavir) that is much more interesting from now on.
The legal case pending on FDA is very strong.
Generic production from Vancocin is very complex and earliest entry point could be end of 2008.
just my 2 cents
Oliver
Do you think David should revise his valuation model and add to the main portfolio at these levels? Where do you see this stock by year end?
Quote from: DragonAMG on May 02, 2007, 11:07:06 PM
Do you think David should revise his valuation model and add to the main portfolio at these levels? Where do you see this stock by year end?
You should ask him, he mentioned VPHM on the NVTL board.
VPHM should be around 25$ imho..
but please do your own DD ;)
Back to VPHM. I truly enjoyed yesterday's results:
• ViroPharma Incorporated Reports First Quarter 2007 Financial Results (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070502/new037.html?.v=3)
PR Newswire (Wed 7:30am)
There's so much to talk about we could be here all day. Let me just provide you the basic topics that explain why I'm buying this stock around today's open, and we'll study them more carefully over the upcoming daily updates:
1) Gross and net profit margin improved due to a switch of Vancocin's manufacturers;
2) The company bought a call option to buy 13.25 million of its own shares at $18.87, which nullifies the dilution effect of the $250 M convertible note offering (also convertible at $18.87);
3) I've learned that Vancocin is open for generic competition since 1996. Still didn't happen. There are a number of barriers to a generic competitor to Vancocin, even though Akron says it is working on that. There's also an FDA organism facilitating generic competition for Vancocin (that explains the fallout from $20 to $8 or so about a year ago). The company has a good case against this;
4) The plan to expand Maribavir commercialization to Europe, not just North America, doubles the drug's potential market;
5) I also enjoy that Hepatitis C treatment, currently still in Phase 1, but it looks like a large percentage of the population in the US and Europe has the disease, but doesn't know it. I talk from personal experience, my mom has the disease and is taking a painful (and expensive) one year treatment;
6) I have great faith on the common cold treatment Glaxo Smithkline bought from VPHM, from which VPHM may receive $65 M and royalties of revenues coming from the drug (the cost of sales of these revenues would be close to zero).
I know, the story lacks details, but VPHM is a biotechnology company trading at 14 times 2007 estimated earnings (estimated by me at $1.17) with great potential from its pipeline being approved and hitting the market in 2008 (especially Maribavir). You know I usually don't fall in love with biotech companies, but VPHM seems to be taking all the right steps. There's one thing I enjoy about biotechnology companies (when they sell something): Their incredibly fat net profit margin, which in VPHM's case was 45% in Q1 2007.
Therefore I'm raising my estimates for VPHM and consider it attractive at this point:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36468;image)
The trading plan is:
Buy VPHM, 6.66% of capital as always.
>:D >:D >:D
"I BELIEVE"
for more detailed information just read all my postings..........
cheers from singapore
Oliver
Room to Grow for VPHM SharesThursday , May 03, 2007 07:00ET
>May 03, 2007 (Zacks Investment Research via COMTEX) -- After a strong first quarter earnings report, ViroPharma, Inc. (VPHM) maintains its Buy rating from Zacks senior biotechnology analyst Jason Napodano, CFA. We excerpted the following from today's updated report on the company:
"ViroPharma, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of products that address diseases caused by infectious agents such as a virus or pathogenic bacteria. The company has one approved product, Vancocin Capsules, for the treatment of antibiotic-associated infection, and two mid-stage candidates for viral infections.
"Recent concerns over a generic alternative to Vancocin have hampered the stock. This is keeping ViroPharma trading at a significant discount to its peers. The company has filed a Citizen's Petition to the FDA-OGD [Food & Drug Administration Office of Generic Drugs] to halt generic entrants. Outside of Vancocin, clinical-stage candidates Maribavir and HCV-796 offer the next substantial growth opportunities. We believe the shares are vastly undervalued. Our target is $22.
"We are maintaining our Buy rating on shares of ViroPharma after the strong first quarter 2007 report. We are pleased to see sales of Vancocin on tract with our yearly forecasts for 2007. Management confirmed the previous range of $195 to $205 million for 2007. Our forecast of $207.0 million for Vancocin Capsules sales in 2007 is just above management s guidance on our belief that the remainder of the year will continue the strength seen in the first quarter. We also feel the recent 9.4% price increase and now under-control inventory situation will help management meet or exceed their guidance."
ViroPharma initiated with "market perform"
Thursday, May 03, 2007 8:46:57 AM ET
Rodman & Renshaw
NEW YORK, May 3 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Rodman & Renshaw initiate coverage of ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM) with a "market perform" rating.
&
ViroPharma "market outperform," target price raised
Thursday, May 03, 2007 2:22:50 PM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, May 3 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "market outperform" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM).
The target price has been raised from $18 to $21.
Let's go a bit deeper on the six topics I pointed out that tell me VPHM is a nice holding for the Main Portfolio:
Quote
1) Gross and net profit margin improved due to a switch of Vancocin's manufacturers;
«Vancocin cost of sales includes the cost of materials and distribution costs. Our gross product margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased in the quarter ended March 31, 2007 to 95.5% from 80.6% in the same period in 2006, which included $2.1 million of additional costs. This increase primarily results from the sale of units manufactured by OSG Norwich, which carry a lower inventory cost. The $2.1 million of additional costs in the first quarter of 2006 related to a portion of the November 2005 amendment to our manufacturing agreement with Lilly whereby we increased the amount of Vancocin that Lilly supplied to us, which increased our cost of sales in the first quarter of 2006, as specific higher cost units were sold.»
This change is permanent, so we can expect gross margin for Vancocin to stay above 90% from now on.
Over the upcoming updates we'll talk about the other 5 points, in the meantime I'll keep holding VPHM.
Here's the second point I made in the "buy VPHM" recommendation:
«2) The company bought a call option to buy 13.25 million of its own shares at $18.87, which nullifies the dilution effect of the $250 M convertible note offering (also convertible at $18.87)»
The press release we have is this:
• ViroPharma Announces Completion Of Convertible Offering (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070326/clm321.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Mon, Mar 26)
The way I see it, there wouldn't be much dilution between $18.87 and $24.92, because the company could exercise its right to buy shares at $18.87 to satisfy the potential conversion of the notes (it has that option, but not the obligation to do so). But at prices above $24.92, there would probably be dilution from those second warrants.
I wonder what are the company's plans for the $241.8 M of proceeds of this note offering:
«The net proceeds of $241.8 million after deducting estimated discounts, commissions, and expenses will be used to fund general corporate purposes including strategic investments or acquisitions of products, technologies or complementary businesses.»
A well targeted acquisition could help increasing the earnings multiple of VPHM. I'll continue holding VPHM.
Today let's think about the third reason I gave for recommending buying VPHM:
«3) I've learned that Vancocin is open for generic competition since 1996. Still didn't happen. There are a number of barriers to a generic competitor to Vancocin, even though Akron says it is working on that. There's also an FDA organism facilitating generic competition for Vancocin (that explains the fallout from $20 to $8 or so about a year ago). The company has a good case against this;»
I must admit that La-onda knows this stock much better than I do, so I based myself also on his judgment of the situation:
Quote
The legal case pending on FDA is very strong.
Generic production from Vancocin is very complex and earliest entry point could be end of 2008.
I read on the company's latest 10-K form that Vancocin is not patent protected since 1996. Yet, 11 years after, there's still no competition, despite the very appealing market opportunity. Why is that? Maybe VPHM has been, and it will continue to be, successful in its efforts to hamper any generic competition or other.
We must go a lot deeper on this subject over the upcoming updates (I'm short on time now), or else we should look more into the company's pipeline potential, which seems great.
I find it especially hard to understand and value biotechnology companies and probably I won't buy any other to the Main Portfolio. I also enjoy ASPV, but between ASPV and VPHM, I see more upside potential in VPHM, because ASPV, at least to my knowledge, has no pipeline of new products (that's why it is so cheap considering common valuation metrics like the sales and earnings multiple).
I'll continue holding VPHM.
David,
there are very specific and detailed documents existing regarding this topic, but I would like to start with the official VPHM statement:
ViroPharma Submits Scientific Arguments in Supplement to Vancocin Petition for Stay of Action
EXTON, Pa., June 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today submitted a supplement to its Petition for Stay of Action with the FDA regarding the bioequivalence requirements for abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) that seek to copy Vancocin capsules. The document sets forth scientific arguments supporting ViroPharma's strong belief that the decision of the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) to modify the bioequivalence standards for generic copies of Vancocin capsules is scientifically flawed.
The submission made by ViroPharma will be available in its entirety later today on ViroPharma's corporate website, at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition.
The document will also be furnished with the SEC as an exhibit to a Current Report on Form 8-K, and will be available on the EDGAR section of the SEC website as well as the SEC filings page of the 'investing' section of the ViroPharma website. The company also expects that the document will become available on the docket management section of the FDA website within approximately two weeks.
The Company believes that its latest submission demonstrates that the OGD's proposal for demonstrating bioequivalence of a generic version of Vancocin capsules using only in vitro dissolution testing instead of human clinical trials is not justifiable, and presents an unacceptably high risk of approving a bioinequivalent product. Because Vancocin treats two potentially life-threatening diseases, Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD) and enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus, anything less than an in vivo demonstration of bioequivalence in those with CDAD may expose patients to unnecessary risk and raise significant clinical and public health concerns.
Previously, on May 31, 2006, ViroPharma filed a supplement describing its strong belief that the OGD's decision to lower the bioequivalence standards for generic copies of Vancocin violated numerous federal statutes in addition to the FDA's own regulations with the result that the new standard cannot, as a matter of law, be used in the review or approval of applications for generic versions of Vancocin. ViroPharma intends to continue to vigorously oppose any approach that does not require rigorous scientific methods including human clinical studies, consistent with good medicine and science. The company also believes that, given the growing number of patients with severe, and possibly life-threatening, CDAD, the appropriate expert advisory groups must validate the scientific and medical appropriateness of the approval standards for a generic locally acting vancomycin capsule product.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease, including death. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the CDC, there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic-associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.
hope this helps, if you need more info, I will send you the documents...
Quotehope this helps, if you need more info, I will send you the documents...
It sure helps la-onda, thanks for the info :)
The 4th reason I had to buy VPHM was:
Quote
4) The plan to expand Maribavir commercialization to Europe, not just North America, doubles the drug's potential market
This is the news release:
• ViroPharma Announces Decision To Develop And Commercialize Maribavir In Europe (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070501/netu150.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Tue, May 1)
I believe this is another step in the right direction for VPHM to achieve its full growth potential, and because of this and other factors this biotechnology company shouldn't be trading at such a low valuation of 14 times earnings, when its industry average trades at 36 times earnings.
Now, there are three questions that I would like to answer but I don't have a clue:
1) How much will Maribavir cost?
2) What is the drug's market potential, in US and Europe combined?
3) When will the commercialization phase begin?
I hope La-onda knows about this, I'm sure the company has internal studies and expectations on the three issues, but probably it didn't made them public. La-onda, do you have any research piece with this type of information about Maribavir?
Thanks a lot :)
I'll continue holding VPHM.
David, you are always welcome 8)
Let´s try to summarize:
3 SoF VPHM Maribavir Q&A:
1)How much will Maribavir cost?
2)What is the drug's market potential, in US and Europe combined?
3)When will the commercialization phase begin?
Goldman Sachs March quotation:
Maribavir is currently in Pahse 3 trials in the transplant setting, a $100 to 200 million niche market, with potential NDA submission in 2009.
Lazard March quotation:
We believe Maribavir may double the current $350 million CMV market based on higher price, a shift to universal prophylactic use, and longer duration of use. We estimate that there are approximately 16,000 autologous and 8,000 allogeneic stem cell transplant (SCT) procedures each year in the U.S. Additionally, we estimate that there are 4,000 heart/lung, 6,000 liver, and 16,000 kidney transplant procedures annually in the U.S. We believe the largest market opportunity for Maribavir is in the stem cell transplant market, where no therapies are approved for prophylactic use. Cymevene and Valcyte are both approved for use in solid tumors, where both are increasingly used for prophylaxis and for longer durations of treatment, but their toxicity limits usage in this setting. We estimate that the worldwide CMV market including prophylaxis and treatment is a $500 million-plus opportunity. Our 1H10 launch estimate assumes an NDA filing in mid-2009 and six-month priority review. We previously expected ViroPharma to out-license the European rights for Maribavir by year-end 2006; however, we now expect ViroPharma to retain European rights as the targeted physician population for marketing is smaller than we previously estimated.
We continue to expect ViroPharma to out-license rest-of-world rights to Maribavir this year.
Maribavir Phase III trial for CMV prevention in SCT underway; second Phase III in SOT should begin in 2Q07. The first Phase III trial is an international, double-blind, placebo-controlled study that will enroll approximately 500 patients over 18 months who are undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Subjects are randomized to receive Maribavir 100mg twice daily or placebo for a maximum of 12 weeks. Subjects are monitored weekly for CMV by central lab testing for CMV pp65 antigenemia and CMV DNA in plasma by PCR testing. If a subject tests positive for CMV during the course of the trial, Maribavir will be stopped and the patient will be treated according to standard CMV treatment practices at the transplant center. The primary endpoint is incidence of CMV disease within 180 days of transplant. The trial is powered to show a statistically significant difference based on an expected event rate of 3%-4% in the treatment arm and 10% in the placebo arm. These expected event rates are partly based on Phase II Maribavir trial data. Beyond the primary efficacy endpoint, the company and the FDA have identified several key secondary endpoints to measure the possible clinical benefits of Maribavir, including incidence of initiation of preemptive anti-CMV therapy, incidence of GvHD, mortality, and CMV disease-free survival. Recall that CMV infection causes increased mortality in transplant patients via direct toxicity and by increased rates of transplant rejection due to GvHD. We expect the company to initiate a Phase III trial for CMV prevention in solid organ transplant patients in 2Q07. While we anticipate hearing the exact design of the trial following its initiation, we expect the Phase III to be a non-inferiority trial in liver transplant patients measuring the safety and efficacy of Maribavir versus gancyclovir (valganciclovir is not approved for use in these patients). We do not believe this trial will be a difficult hurdle for Maribavir as the Phase II trial points to Maribavir's superior safety and efficacy.
Zack report March quotation:
Maribavir
In 2003, ViroPharma acquired the worldwide rights (ex-Japan) to a potent and selective, oral inhibitor of cytomegalovirus (CMV) from GlaxoSmithKline. CMV is a member of the herpes virus group, which includes the viruses that causes chicken pox, mononucleosis, herpes labialis (cold sores) and herpes genitalis (genital herpes). CMV can cause serious complications in persons with weakened immune systems and has the ability to remain dormant in the body for long periods of time. Human CMV infection rates average between 60% and 85% of adults in the U.S. by 40 years of age. In most healthy individuals, CMV infection causes little to no apparent illness. However, in immuno-compromised individuals CMV can lead to serious disease or death. Unlike currently available anti-CMV agents that inhibit CMV DNA polymerase, Maribavir inhibits viral DNA assembly and inhibits egress of viral capsids from the nucleus of infected cells (UL-97 kinase). ViroPharma recently presented very positive results from a 12-week (n=111) phase II study with Maribavir used as a prophylaxis treatment in CMV-seropositive patients with allogenic bone marrow ( stem cell ) transplant. The data demonstrated that Maribavir offers a significant reduction (p<0.05) in CMV re-activation on an intent-to-treat basis.
Maribavir patients dosed twice daily (BID) with either 100mg or 400mg reported on 15% re-activation rate versus placebo at 57%. Additionally, no patients on Maribavir (n=83) reported CMV disease versus 11% (n=3 of 28) on placebo. We are very impressed with these data. Skin rash was similar between Maribavir and placebo and no serious adverse events to inhibit future testing were observed. Maribavir looks well-tolerated with efficacy superior to ganciclovir. This data will be presented fully at an upcoming medical conference.
ViroPharma initiated the first of two phase III programs on maribavir in September 2006. The trial will study the drug in 500 allogeneic stem cell transplants patients. The goal of the trial will be to evaluate the efficacy, safety and tolerability of prophylactic use of maribavir administered orally for up to 12 weeks for the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease. The primary efficacy endpoint will be the incidence of CMV disease within 180 days post-transplant, which is predicted to be approximately 10% in the placebo (current standard of care) arm based on data from the phase II study. Following extensive dialogue with FDA, a number of key secondary endpoints associated with CMV reactivation have been identified and assessment of these endpoints will play an important part in assessing the clinical benefit of maribavir. These key secondary endpoints include incidence of initiation of preemptive anti-CMV therapy, incidence of graft-versus-host disease, mortality and CMV disease-free survival. The study also will evaluate the pharmacokinetics of maribavir in this subject population.
Viropharma is also finalizing plans for the second phase III trial to begin in solid organ transplant patients perhaps in the second quarter of 2007. This trial will be smaller than the stem cell transplant trial and may actually offer data before the stem cell trial. However, management will compile data from both trials to prepare a New Drug Application (NDA) in late 2008 / early 2009. We assume the launch in late 2009. We believe the future potential of Maribavir is being lost in investor concerns over generic Vancocin. Maribavir has the potential to quadruple the sales of Vancocin. The positive phase II data caused us to add Maribavir to our long-term model and forecast $20 million in sales in 2009. We see Maribavir ramping to $255 million in 2011 this should drive substantial profitability.
In February 2007 ViroPharma announced that the FDA had granted orphan drug designation for maribavir for prevention and treatment of cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia. The Orphan Drug Act was designed to provide incentives to companies to develop drugs that treat conditions affecting 200,000 or fewer patients annually in the U.S. and that provide a significant therapeutic advantage over existing treatments or fill an unmet medical need.
We estimate there are roughly 30,000 solid organ transplants and 25,000 stem cell transplants 10,000 of which are allogenic in the U.S. annually. The current standard of care is Roche s Valcyte (valganciclovir), a prodrug of Cymevene (ganciclovir). Sales of Valcyte/Cymevene in the U.S. in 2006 were $207 million, up 27%. We believe that maribavir offers better absorption at the oral dose than valganciclovir and ganciclovir, as well as less resistance and fewer side-effects. Orphan drug designation entitles ViroPharma to seven years of market exclusivity in the United States upon FDA approval of Maribavir, provided that the company continues to meet certain conditions established by the FDA. Maribavir is also patent protected until 2015. Other potential advantages include protocol assistance, the potential for priority review, tax credits, and other financial incentives. The drug has already been granted Fast Track status by the FDA, allowing for a potential rolling NDA filing.
Additionally:
Somebody who is at close contact with VPHM Mgmt stated the following (no link etc available):
The base estimate for Maribivir per the teach in was $400 to $500 million per year. This is when ViroPharma expected to receive a royalty for use of Maribivir in europe. Obviously, the base estimate has increased significantly, probably by at least 80% to $720 to $900 million a year.(based on the Maribavir Europe decision)
&
quotation from cc:
Material impact on the estimated market for Maribavir. The company said that prior figures comtempated a royalty from Europe. Europe accounts for 40% WW sales current therapy.
Pricing should be on par with the States-- On track to start 2nd phase II study this quarter so another PR for them to talk about this opportunity.
Please also check the last CC transcript!
cheers from Singapore
O.
hi,
this kind of news usually doesn't effect the stock price much but here it is.
max
ViroPharma to Present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Wednesday May 9, 4:30 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., May 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that Michel de Rosen, president and chief executive officer of ViroPharma, will present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference at 11:20 A.M. ET (5:20 P.M. local time) on Monday, May 14, 2007. The conference is being held at the Le Meridien Beach Plaza Hotel in Monte-Carlo, Monaco.
ADVERTISEMENT
ViroPharma's presentation will be webcast live for investors through www.viropharma.com and available through May 28, 2007.
Thanks a lot for the information La-onda :) You should write a book on VPHM hehehe
It seems Maribavir's contribution to VPHM's sales and EPS will start only in late 2009, so there's no reason to change the 3 year estimates I have on the valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=VPHM&portfolio=main).
But it sure looks like an outstanding long term opportunity and it should help VPHM's earnings multiple to expand. The following highlighted sentence says it all:
«We believe the future potential of Maribavir is being lost in investor concerns over generic Vancocin. Maribavir has the potential to quadruple the sales of Vancocin. The positive phase II data caused us to add Maribavir to our long-term model and forecast $20 million in sales in 2009. We see Maribavir ramping to $255 million in 2011 this should drive substantial profitability.»
Quotehi,
this kind of news usually doesn't effect the stock price much but here it is.
max
Thanks for that news Max :)
Ok, we're done with the Maribavir issue. What's the next one?
Quote5) I also enjoy that Hepatitis C treatment, currently still in Phase 1, but it looks like a large percentage of the population in the US and Europe has the disease, but doesn't know it.
La-onda, if it isn't much trouble, what do you have on this issue?
Thanks a lot, I'll keep holding VPHM.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 10, 2007, 04:44:10 AM
Ok, we're done with the Maribavir issue. What's the next one?
Quote5) I also enjoy that Hepatitis C treatment, currently still in Phase 1, but it looks like a large percentage of the population in the US and Europe has the disease, but doesn't know it.
La-onda, if it isn't much trouble, what do you have on this issue?
Thanks a lot, I'll keep holding VPHM.
CC quotation:
....invigorated by the strong Phase Ib data, we restarted our preclinical evaluation of next generation inhibitors of hepatitis C with our partners at Wyeth.
....
Third, we will continue to develop our preclinical drug candidates including our next generation hepatitis C work and [anti-CG]. Regarding the latter, expect news on our progress later this year after our interactions with the FDA allowing us to make a go or no go decision. Motely Fool:ViroPharma Victorious
By Brian Lawler
May 7, 2007
Last week, drugmaker ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced potent first-quarter financial results and exciting progress with its drug pipeline.
Sales of ViroPharma's only marketed product, the antibiotic Vancocin, rose 68% year over year, thanks to a price increase and strong prescription growth. Diluted earnings per share climbed $0.18 to a total of $0.31 a share, while gross margins remained a whopping 95%.
Meanwhile, ViroPharma remains on track with its development of hepatitis C compound HCV-796. Last month, the company announced very strong phase 1 efficacy results for the drug, although the competition in hepatitis C treatments is heating up as companies like Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: VRTX) and InterMune (Nasdaq: ITMN) make fast progress in the field. ViroPharma expects to announce initial interim data from its phase 2 study with the drug in genotype 1 patients later this year. After a convertible share offering that brought in more than $200 million, ViroPharma is flush with nearly $500 million in cash. Since the company is cash flow-positive, ViroPharma has a moderate treasure chest with which to make acquisitions. ViroPharma's guidance for the year calls for net income in the low $100 million range. Shares are currently trading at just more than twice the company's cash on hand, making ViroPharma's stock cheap in comparison to its peers.
One big question still hangs over ViroPharma: When will the Vancocin generic competition materialize? As time passes and no generic competitors surface, investors seem to be getting more comfortable with shares of ViroPharma, its strong cash flow, and its undervalued share price. Shares are up nearly 15% for the year. That still amounts to barely more than a $1 billion market cap -- not a rich valuation for a company with $200 million a year in sales and a pipeline consisting of a novel mid-stage HCV treatment and late-stage transplant infection treatment. In short, investors unafraid of the potential for generic competitors to Vancocin should take a look at ViroPharma.
Buying VPHM here $15.64
La-onda is the commander and chief of VPHM, so I'm going to ask him just one more:
Quote6) I have great faith on the common cold treatment Glaxo Smithkline bought from VPHM, from which VPHM may receive $65 M and royalties of revenues coming from the drug (the cost of sales of these revenues would be close to zero).
What do you have on this La-onda? (I promise, this is the last one, thanks :))
Technically the stock seems to be coming down to close the gap at $15.33, what a drag. Fortunately some of you, like yukiii, are taking advantage of this short term pullback to buy VPHM, so there's some positive use to it.
I want to hold at least one biotech company, and VPHM seems to have the upside potential of a potent pipeline and the safety of a steady flow of profits (coupled with an attractive valuation in terms of earnings multiple). I'll continue holding VPHM.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 11, 2007, 03:00:22 AM
La-onda is the commander and chief of VPHM, so I'm going to ask him just one more:
Quote6) I have great faith on the common cold treatment Glaxo Smithkline bought from VPHM, from which VPHM may receive $65 M and royalties of revenues coming from the drug (the cost of sales of these revenues would be close to zero).
What do you have on this La-onda? (I promise, this is the last one, thanks :))
I am sorry to say that there is no update available from my side ....
:P lol
nice rebound today
QuoteI am sorry to say that there is no update available from my side ....
:P lol
nice rebound today
Hehe, you've done more than enough La-onda, thanks :)
Reason #6 to buy VPHM was:
Quote6) I have great faith on the common cold treatment Glaxo Smithkline bought from VPHM, from which VPHM may receive $65 M and royalties of revenues coming from the drug (the cost of sales of these revenues would be close to zero).
Here's what the latest 10-Q has on this issue:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36800;image)
I don't know how the share of revenues will be divided between VPHM and Shering Plough (the partner on Pleconaril, a common cold treatment, is Shering Plough, not Glaxo as I mistakenly wrote), but I'll investigate the issue on upcoming updates. Anyway, this business is not in VPHM's hands now.
As La-onda said, nice bounce on Friday, I'll keep holding VPHM.
hi,
nice bounce friday,
today, this one dropped hard . i couldn't find any news. they were doing a presentation today maybe it didn't go well.
Press Release Source: ViroPharma Incorporated
ViroPharma to Present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Wednesday May 9, 4:30 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., May 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that Michel de Rosen, president and chief executive officer of ViroPharma, will present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference at 11:20 A.M. ET (5:20 P.M. local time) on Monday, May 14, 2007. The conference is being held at the Le Meridien Beach Plaza Hotel in Monte-Carlo, Monaco.
max
additional information:
IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions:
Total Vancocin prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,925!! New prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,216!! Prior week totals are 4,735 and 4,106, respectively.
Institutional holdings up to 78.6%:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=vphm&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=VPHM
Quote from: rickjust on May 14, 2007, 04:06:53 PM
hi,
nice bounce friday,
today, this one dropped hard . i couldn't find any news. they were doing a presentation today maybe it didn't go well.
Press Release Source: ViroPharma Incorporated
ViroPharma to Present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Wednesday May 9, 4:30 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., May 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that Michel de Rosen, president and chief executive officer of ViroPharma, will present at the Acumen/BioFin Rodman & Renshaw 4th Annual Global Healthcare Conference at 11:20 A.M. ET (5:20 P.M. local time) on Monday, May 14, 2007. The conference is being held at the Le Meridien Beach Plaza Hotel in Monte-Carlo, Monaco.
max
Hi rickjust, I heard the conference call and saw the slides, I think it went well:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq11/vphm/
In fact over the next updates we'll study the slides of this conference, they're very informative.
Quote from: la-onda on May 15, 2007, 02:15:43 AM
additional information:
IMS Health Weekly Prescriptions:
Total Vancocin prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,925!! New prescriptions for the week ended 5/4/07 total 4,216!! Prior week totals are 4,735 and 4,106, respectively.
Institutional holdings up to 78.6%:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=vphm&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=VPHM
Hi la-onda, thanks for the information, applaud.
Yesterday VPHM came down to close the gap that was opened after the Q1 results presentation. My take is, since some people knew the Vancocin prescriptions in advance, Q1 revenue and earnings growth wasn't a positive surprise, so the stock came back down to the previous level. But this doesn't mean there wasn't a fundamental improvement, there was.
I expect VPHM to recover, perhaps after testing the 50 days SMA support. I'll keep holding VPHM.
Finally one stock that actually closed up on the day, VPHM. It bounced after closing that gap, as it should do ... but, what am I doing, focusing on short term technical information again? I should know better.
The thing is, focusing on long term information is a lot harder and it gives a lot more work. It is so much easier to let the market (I mean others) tell us what to do, isn't it? Easier doesn't mean it works, I don't think it does, not over a 30 year investment life span.
So let me put here the first three slides of the latest VPHM conference:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36872;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36873;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36874;image)
Lol, sorry, these were just introductory slides, tomorrow we'll have three more (hopefully with more relevancy :))
I'll continue holding VPHM.
Three more slides today:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36918;image)
This is a nice combination for a biotechnology company.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36919;image)
Maribavir is the greatest hope for the near future, since it is in phase 3. The commercialization process is expected to start in 2009, but until then we'll have Vancocin revenues to support and grow the company's profitability.
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36920;image)
The next few slides will explain what Maribavir is and its potential.
Technically VPHM touched the 50 days SMA and should rebound strongly now. I'll continue holding VPHM whatever happens.
VPHM issued two press releases yesterday, with no impact on the share price:
• ViroPharma (VPHM) President and Chief Executive Officer to Ring the NASDAQ Stock Market Opening Bell (http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070517/119772.html)
PrimeNewswire (Thu 11:54am)
• ViroPharma to Present at The CitiGroup 2007 Healthcare Conference (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070517/neth084.html?.v=6)
PR Newswire (Thu 2:32pm)
Let's study the next three slides, all of them explaining Maribavir:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36958;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36959;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36960;image)
Technically VPHM continues to slide, and I'm already losing 8.55% on this trade. Biotechnology always gives me a lot of work and no money. I'll probably never buy another biotechnology stock, I dislike the sector.
But, in biotechnology, I like VPHM, because it makes sense from a financial standpoint, so I'll keep holding the stock.
I wasn't expecting VPHM to trend down over the short term, not after the Q1 results that were above expectations. It seems people continue to worry about Vancocin's generic competition, or else it has to do with the $250 M private placement.
Technically the stock is reaching short and medium term support is picking up, so I expect the stock to bounce from this area. Let' check the following three slides of the Rodman & Renshaw conference:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37013;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37014;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37015;image)
Biotechnology always needs to be a long term investment, so I'm prepared to hold VPHM for the long term and hopefully reap the reward. But this is the last biotechnology stock I'll ever buy, because the way to value them is complex and I don't have the necessary skills to do it. Of the hundreds of biotechnology companies outthere, I expect no more than 10% to survive and prosper. VPHM seems to be one of those.
I'll keep holding VPHM.
It's picking up a little today :)
VPHM bounced of the $14.72 support level, but volume wasn't convincing. Let's expect tomorrow's conference at Citigroup brings some more volume and upside action to VPHM, I, like everybody else, don't like to be losing.
(when I start talking about short term technical aspects of the stock you see that I don't have much time or new things to say on the fundamental front).
I'll keep on holding VPHM.
There wasn't much movement on VPHM yesterday, so we can relax and look at three more slides of its latest conference, I believe they help understanding the business behind the stock:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37144;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37145;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37146;image)
These three slides were about their Hepatitis C treatment, currently in phase 2.
Technically the stock is back above the 50 days SMA, not that has much significance. Fundamentally the stock is cheap, trading at 13.5 times earnings. I'll continue holding VPHM.
Anyone see this maybe this is the reason stock has gone down....
Our annual stockholders' meeting will be held on Thursday, June 21, 2007 at 10:00 a.m., local time, at The Inn at Chester Springs, 815 North Pottstown Pike, Exton, Pennsylvania 19341 for the following purposes:
To amend our amended and restated certificate of incorporation to increase the number of shares of common stock that we are authorized to issue by 75,000,000 shares to an aggregate of 175,000,000 shares.
Quote from: yukiii on May 23, 2007, 04:56:49 AM
Anyone see this maybe this is the reason stock has gone down....
Our annual stockholders' meeting will be held on Thursday, June 21, 2007 at 10:00 a.m., local time, at The Inn at Chester Springs, 815 North Pottstown Pike, Exton, Pennsylvania 19341 for the following purposes:
To amend our amended and restated certificate of incorporation to increase the number of shares of common stock that we are authorized to issue by 75,000,000 shares to an aggregate of 175,000,000 shares.
Since the current # of shares outstanding is 69,792,522 shares, they had to increase the number of authorized shares to accommodate the possible conversion of the latest $250 M private placement. However, the company has a call to buy back those shares if they're converted, hence reducing potential dilution. I don't think that was the cause for the decline, it had to be done.
Hi,
just fyi ;)
Cititgroup conference slides
I am holding my shares (entry @ 9.4 a few months ago)
cheers
O.
Thanks for posting Citigroup's conference slides all at once la-onda :) Today I don't have time to listen to the conference's webcast, I'll probably do it for tomorrow's update.
Unfortunately the conference didn't have a positive impact on VPHM shares, as the stock went down 1.83% on the day. It's all short term noise.
I'll keep on holding VPHM.
The problem with VPHM is
Shares Short 9,538,700
Short % of Float 13.81 %
Shares Short - Prior 7,038,100
Short position keeps going up no reason for them to cover.
I'm neither optimistic neither pessimist, but that H&S figure doesn't look too good, if it breaks the shoulder, I'm turning my position to short.
Well, good luck shorts, my guess is you're gonna need it :)
People are pessimistic about the possibility of generic competition for Vancocin, but the patent expired in 1996 and 11 years after there's still no one else making a similar drug. The stock is trading at 13.8 times 2007 EPS, and it retains all the potential of a biotechnology company.
However, I do see the potential for an head & shoulders top in the chart. The 200 days SMA stands at $14.13 now, I expect that to provide support and perhaps be the low point of this move.
I'll keep holding VPHM.
additional info:
VPHM: Short Interest UP 1.1% to 9.6M in May 2007
Friday , May 25, 2007 01:12ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 1.1% to 9,646,955 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2007.
SYMBOL APRIL MAY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 9,538,746 9,646,955 +108,209 +1.13% 8
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,337,920, it would require approximately 8 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Quote from: la-onda on May 25, 2007, 05:29:49 AM
additional info:
VPHM: Short Interest UP 1.1% to 9.6M in May 2007
Friday , May 25, 2007 01:12ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 1.1% to 9,646,955 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2007.
SYMBOL APRIL MAY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 9,538,746 9,646,955 +108,209 +1.13% 8
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,337,920, it would require approximately 8 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Yeah, shorts are always expecting for a generic competitor to Vancocin, but so far, niente. One can look at VPHM's future both ways:
1) The optimistic way, which views VPHM using the cash they've been earning with Vancocin to build a valuable pipeline of new drugs that will hit the market in 2009 and will make the company's profitability grow a lot;
2) The pessimistic way, which views generic competition for Vancocin around the corner and VPHM's sales and profits going down in the near future.
I must say that I don't know what the future holds. Probably I know less than what other market participants know about VPHM, because I have troubles when valuing biotechnology stocks (I don't know enough, the sector is too specific). Exceptionally I'll let the market tell me what to do, instead of my own analysis.
In technical terms the stock is now at a critical point. The way I see the chart below, if VPHM breaks down below $13.82, the bears have won the battle. I'll be humble and take my loss if that happens.
The trading plan for VPHM is:
HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82.
hi,
good idea, as good as the fundamentals may be you can't ignore the huge head and shoulders pattern and the 200ma looming . if it closes below that then it is over for now.
max
Yup, I agree.... you got to protect capital...
For VPHM, it's really bearish right now. It broke the 13 EMA again in the weekly chart. It might go down and re-test the lower trendline and that's where we should look for safer entry point.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 26, 2007, 09:47:46 AM
In technical terms the stock is now at a critical point. The way I see the chart below, if VPHM breaks down below $13.82, the bears have won the battle. I'll be humble and take my loss if that happens.
I am so happy to have the old David back; making good money mangement decisions and paying attention to what the market is telling you.
Quote from: rickjust on May 26, 2007, 01:33:49 PM
hi,
good idea, as good as the fundamentals may be you can't ignore the huge head and shoulders pattern and the 200ma looming . if it closes below that then it is over for now.
max
The problem with biotechs and technical analysis is that everything may change overnight due to some news. If medical tests go well or the FDA suddenly approves a drug stocks can sky rocket 50 or 100% in one single day, who cares about H&S or trendlines in that case?
Quote from: Terliso on May 26, 2007, 08:16:39 PM
Yup, I agree.... you got to protect capital...
For VPHM, it's really bearish right now. It broke the 13 EMA again in the weekly chart. It might go down and re-test the lower trendline and that's where we should look for safer entry point.
Thanks for your technical view Terliso.
QuoteI am so happy to have the old David back; making good money mangement decisions and paying attention to what the market is telling you.
You mean you're happy to have the old weak hand David back? ;D I'm not. I wish I knew more about VPHM and biotechnology in general.
This is one of the longest threads in www.3stocksonfire.org, with hundreds of bull and bear arguments on VPHM. But the stock has been stuck in a range since 2007 began.
Technically I would like to see it closing back above $14.72, which was a prior short term support, now resistance. I, like Terliso, feel the stock may dive a good chunk more if it breaks down below the ascending trendline I have on my chart and the 200 days SMA, currently at $14.19.
I would like to have some new and very positive fundamental development to take VPHM decisively higher. But I can only hope at this stage. I'm not feeling comfortable holding VPHM, but I don't feel like selling it right away either. One thing I know: VPHM will be the last biotechnology company I'll ever buy.
For now the trading plan for VPHM will remain: HOLD, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82.
VPHM closed just 2 cents above the $14.72 short term resistance level, I hope that's enough for market players to start pushing it higher. The way I read the chart, it should breakout above the short term descending trendline, today at $15.10, to be decisively bullish. If that happens I'll be comfortable enough to take out of the trading plan the protective stop.
As it is now the trading plan remains: HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82, which is a key support level.
I guess VPHM is waiting for the 200 Moving Average just like SILC seemed to be waiting for the 50 MA.
Quote from: wxmang on May 31, 2007, 04:33:42 PM
I guess VPHM is waiting for the 200 Moving Average just like SILC seemed to be waiting for the 50 MA.
Yes, perhaps that's the case wxmang. The 200 days simple moving average is standing at $14.25 today. It would be nice if the stock were to touch it on the early morning trading and then rebound and close the day in the green.
I feel I've been too short term oriented regarding VPHM, my hands are weak, because I don't understand the business very well. Anyway, I know VPHM better than any other biotechnology company. I know it is a very profitable company, but that profitability is always in danger because generic competition for Vancocin can arise. I know that the company has a strong pipeline of new drugs that appeal to me, especially that hepatitis C treatment and the common cold drug joint venture. Maribavir seems to be closer to fruition, but I don't know very well for what it will be used and what's the size of its potential market. I also don't know what competitor's have or are doing in the same field.
In the end, I find biotech stocks very hard to analyze and I don't think they're worth it.
But for now I'll keep the trading plan of holding VPHM, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82.
Briefing.com quotation (no link available):
......
Thomas Weisel notes that with continued uncertainty on the timing of potential generic competition representing a significant overhang on Viropharma (VPHM 14.49) shares, they conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of one or more generic oral vancomycin entrants on future Vancocin sales. Even in an absolute worst case scenario, where Vancocin sales went to zero as early as 2008, the firm believes the pipeline alone supports a $12-13 stock, representing minimal downside from current levels. They think significant upside, however, could come from a number of near-term event... ....
have a nice weekend
Oliver
(holding long and strong; I believe 8) )
QuoteThomas Weisel notes that with continued uncertainty on the timing of potential generic competition representing a significant overhang on Viropharma (VPHM 14.49) shares, they conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of one or more generic oral vancomycin entrants on future Vancocin sales. Even in an absolute worst case scenario, where Vancocin sales went to zero as early as 2008, the firm believes the pipeline alone supports a $12-13 stock, representing minimal downside from current levels. They think significant upside, however, could come from a number of near-term event...
"Pipeline alone supports $12-$13 stock", this is very interesting la-onda, I wonder how they've conducted the analysis to get to this conclusion. The claim itself helps to strengthen ones hands in VPHM, even more so if we knew the details of the analysis.
Technically the stock is right at support, and should start to rise now. I would like to see VPHM closing above the descending trendline on the chart below, tomorrow at $14.93, to get more confident about VPHM, and take out the protective stop that I have.
For now the trading plan remains: HOLD VPHM, unless it is set to close below $13.82.
Hi David,
Do I understand you have a stop at $ 13,82? Because you say set to close below $ 13,82.
Don't want to start an old discussion ;) (think it was last year or so), just want to be sure. Lost some serious money the last couple getting out too late :'( :'(
Thanks,
Amarens
Quote from: Amarens on June 04, 2007, 09:25:18 AM
Hi David,
Do I understand you have a stop at $ 13,82? Because you say set to close below $ 13,82.
Don't want to start an old discussion ;) (think it was last year or so), just want to be sure. Lost some serious money the last couple getting out too late :'( :'(
Thanks,
Amarens
Hi Amarens, I don't place automatic stops in the market. I also don't like to be stopped out because of intraday market action, because many times, stocks break supports only over the intraday but then claw back up to close above the support level, which is a bullish behavior. But I guess we won't have to worry about that, since I expect VPHM to start trending higher over the short term and break the short term descending trendline, today standing at $14.93, on the upside.
The trading plan is:
HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is about to close below the $13.82 support. If that's the case, sell just before the close.
Thanks, that's what I remebered and thought, just wanted to make sure b/c you spoke of a stop in you last update.
Will you still come back to the analyzing for the release dates? I'm still up for it.
Will hear,
Amarens
QuoteThanks, that's what I remebered and thought, just wanted to make sure b/c you spoke of a stop in you last update.
Do you receive the daily newsletter, through your e-mail and private message, with the specific instructions for all holdings of the Main Portfolio?
QuoteWill you still come back to the analyzing for the release dates? I'm still up for it.
Will hear,
Amarens
Yes, I've suggested the 100 smallest stocks in the Russel 2000 index (in terms of market cap) for the study at the CIMT thread, what do you think? (but I'm not sure this data is readily available, will have to look for it).
Hi,
all technical indicators are heading up again; EMA200 is our strong support!
Now the best news (quotation):
The Agency will issue a notice in the Federal Register (FR) announcing the availability on the FDA Web site of new product-specific draft and final BE recommendations. The notice will identify a comment period for the recommendations.
· Comments on product-specific BE recommendations will be considered in developing final BE recommendations.
· The BE recommendations will be revised as appropriate to ensure that the most up-to-date BE information is available to the public.
What this means to me is that since Vancocin was not on the original BE list, will go through the new procdures listed above. Therefore we will have plently of time and warning to see the new FDA guidance for Vancocin, and there will be a public comment session, so again we will have plenty of warning. Best of all, this indicates that FDA wants an open review of the issues, and essentially suggests that the original Vancocin approach was wrong and willl be revisited.
please check the attachment
cheers
Oliver
QuoteWhat this means to me is that since Vancocin was not on the original BE list, will go through the new procdures listed above. Therefore we will have plently of time and warning to see the new FDA guidance for Vancocin, and there will be a public comment session, so again we will have plenty of warning. Best of all, this indicates that FDA wants an open review of the issues, and essentially suggests that the original Vancocin approach was wrong and willl be revisited.
Thanks for the valuable information la-onda :)
Vancocin isn't on the list:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37660;image)
Technically the stock just needs to close above $14.86 (2 cents higher), for me to be less concerned and take out the stop on close. For now the trading plan remains: HOLD VPHM, unless it is set to close below $13.82.
QuoteTechnically the stock just needs to close above $14.86 (2 cents higher), for me to be less concerned and take out the stop on close.
It didn't close 2 cents higher, but 3 cents lower, so VPHM is still stuck between the medium term ascending trendline (today at $14.66) and the short term descending trendline (today at $14.77).
So, if VPHM closes 1% up or down, it will provide a significant technical signal. But I've learned not to be this "small", this "objective", when at reading charts. My trading plans need to be wide, in order for me not to consider "short term noise" in my decision making process.
So, the recommended traded plan continues to be: HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82.
VPHM failed to make a bullish breakout above the short term descending trendline. If it weren't for the information la-onda kindly brought, saying for example that VPHM's pipeline alone is worth $12 - $13 a share and that perhaps the FDA will review the process for bioequivalence for a Vancocin generic, I guess I would just take the loss and forget about biotech stocks for ever and ever.
But this way I'm willing to give VPHM a chance and sell it only if it breaks down below $13.82, on close, that would be disgusting and I would just bail out.
David,
there will be 2 conferences coming on the 12th and 14th of June!
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-presentations
I will hold until this 2 conferences are done 8)
ugly chart but should be the bottom imho
Quote from: la-onda on June 07, 2007, 08:43:16 PM
David,
there will be 2 conferences coming on the 12th and 14th of June!
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-presentations
I will hold until this 2 conferences are done 8)
ugly chart but should be the bottom imho
Thanks for your opinion la-onda. VPHM has been giving several conferences, but they always say more or less the same thing and are failing to attract investor's interest. Something is moving the stock downward, perhaps there are companies working towards a Vancocin generic? Or the FDA will leave the bioequivalence as it is?
I don't know what it is, but I'm afraid I'm going to take a 15% plus loss on VPHM, if the stock is set to close below $13.82. That's my trading plan. Good luck la-onda :)
looks like VPHM wants to go to $13.00 stock heavily shorted 7% of the float, they will keep it down, till there is a reason to cover. No news.
QuoteI don't know what it is, but I'm afraid I'm going to take a 15% plus loss on VPHM, if the stock is set to close below $13.82.
VPHM is closing above $13.82. I'll keep it.
It's hard to believe VPHM came down to touch its support at $13.82 (again), since the company's fundamentals seem so attractive. There are two possibilities:
1) The last 30 days fall was just short term technical noise. There's no strong catalyst to move it up a lot, so the stock fluctuates back and forth.
2) The market or someone powerful knows something that we don't, something negative, and is heavily selling the stock short.
VPHM's candle on Friday signals a bullish reversal. Let's see if that happens. If not, if the stock goes down some more, I'll have to cut my losses and forget biotechs for good.
The trading plan remains:
HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82. If that happens, sell before the close.
I don't want to think too much about VPHM in this phase, I want to be a robot executing orders. The order is: If VPHM is set to close below $13.82, SELL. Otherwise, HOLD.
I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.
Quote from: Terliso on June 12, 2007, 11:17:22 AM
I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.
Not yet. Only if it is set to close below $13.82. There are no good shorts in my view.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:15:01 PM
Quote from: Terliso on June 12, 2007, 11:17:22 AM
I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.
Not yet. Only if it is set to close below $13.82. There are no good shorts in my view.
How about JASO and TSL... they both look like good shorts, no? How about CROX when it hits $100?
Quote from: DragonAMG on June 12, 2007, 01:29:39 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on June 12, 2007, 01:15:01 PM
Quote from: Terliso on June 12, 2007, 11:17:22 AM
I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.
Not yet. Only if it is set to close below $13.82. There are no good shorts in my view.
How about JASO and TSL... they both look like good shorts, no? How about CROX when it hits $100?
No, no good shorts. If I apply my valuation model to any stock for the short side it will be extremely difficult to find one that is expected to return more than 16% a year for the next three years, and that is my minimum threshold to consider an investment interesting.
If you analyze all short funds, they're never able to beat the market in a consistent way.
If you buy a stock that goes from $5 to $10 you earn 100%. If you sell the stock short at $10 and cover at $5, you earn 50%. Your expected rate of return is lower and your risk is higher. There's no point in looking for short candidates.
No hope for VPHM, closing below the $13.82 key support level. My hands were weak from the start on this stock . I've taken my loss at $13.63. One comforting thought: It was the last time I've lost money in a biotechnology stock.
sold also today, but will be back soon:
Idenix Sees Early Surge Fade
By Robert Steyer
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
6/12/2007 3:48 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/pharmaceuticals/10362130.html
The air went out of Idenix (IDIX) quickly on Tuesday as two analysts downgraded the stock.
Before the market opened, Idenix issued a press release touting the results of a midstage clinical trial for its hepatitis C drug valopicitabine. In premarket trading, the stock climbed as high as $9.25, or about 28% above Monday's closing price.
However, once analysts digested the data and talked to Idenix executives, the mood soured. By late afternoon, the stock was off 46 cents, or 6.4%, to $6.77. Trading volume was more than 30 times greater than the daily average for the past three months.
Both Bear Stearns and Susquehanna Financial lowered their ratings after Idenix management revealed the drug would need another Phase 2, or midstage, clinical trial before moving to the larger Phase 3 setting.
"We expect timelines to be pushed back by at least one year and a Phase 3 trial [will] begin in the second half of 2008," says Jason Kolbert, of Susquehanna, in a report to clients. He doesn't own shares. His firm says it seeks to do business with companies mentioned in research reports.
Kolbert cut his rating to neutral from positive, saying that he had been expecting the results to be enough to advance to Phase 3. Idenix will be at a disadvantage to competitors, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and ViroPharma (VPHM) , which are expected to begin Phase 3 testing later this year on their hepatitis C compounds, Kolbert says.
Mark Schoenebaum of Bear Stearns lowered his rating to peer perform from outperform, telling clients that his prediction of a 2009 launch will be delayed by at least six months. He's concerned about the drug's gastrointestinal side effects and wants to see better efficacy data. Schoenebaum doesn't own shares, but his firm has had a non-investment banking relationship.
Idenix is working on the drug with Novartis (NVS) , which owns 56% of the Cambridge, Mass.-based company.
Some investors initially jumped at the news that valopicitabine met its Phase 2 research goals. The clinical trial compared a combination of the Idenix compound plus two marketed hepatitis C drugs -- pegylated interferon and ribavirin -- to the two other drugs.
Pegylated interferon and ribavirin are the standards of care for hepatitis C, a blood-borne disease linked primarily to needle-sharing among drug users. The disease also can be caused by unprotected sex, transfusions of infected blood or transplants of infected organs. Hepatitis C can lead to liver cancer or necessitate a liver transplant.
Idenix said it met the primary goal of showing no interactions between its drug and ribavirin among patients with a certain type of hepatitis C. Among 39 patients receiving a triple-drug combination, 72.2% achieved a significant reduction in the virus compared with 61.5% among 39 patients receiving the dual-drug standard of care. However, three patients quit the Idenix-group test due to side effects.
The drop-outs prompted the Bear Stearns and Susquehanna Financial analysts to remark that the comparison between the Idenix group and the standard-of-care groups is weaker than the official numbers in the clinical trial.
la-onda you're dropping out too? ;) I don't feel like selling another stock for a loss... I will be holding this one >:D wish me luck.... looks like I will need it.
I sold with profit ( bought in @ 9.4$) ;D
No panic sell on it, at least not yet. Hmmm. Might even be a good buy now.
Quote from: BigSully1 on June 13, 2007, 09:46:02 AM
No panic sell on it, at least not yet. Hmmm. Might even be a good buy now.
I bought a little @ 13.99, but will put a fairly close stop on it.
Is VPHM being manipulated? Whats with the inverted bid/ask for past 10 minutes?
10 min chart :o :o
Quote from: la-onda on June 13, 2007, 10:48:28 AM
10 min chart :o :o
Thanks la-onda. There was about a 10 min period where the bid/ask was inverted with as much as a .07 spread, even though it couldn't be bought at the ask, at least not by me.
ViroPharma Is on Its Way
By Brian Lawler June 13, 2007
Yesterday drugmaker ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced that it had completed enrolling the initial treatment groups in a phase 2 study of its hepatitis C
treatment HCV-796.
Finishing enrollment means that the clock can start
ticking on when these patients will complete
treatment. ViroPharma and partner Wyeth (NYSE: WYE)
expect to release interim data after four weeks of
drug treatment in the third quarter of this year; the
twelve-week data is expected to come out in the fourth
quarter.
Keep in mind that the data that ViroPharma will
announce later in the year is only preliminary. The
study is slated to run a total of 72 weeks. More arms
of the study, using different dosages of the drug,
will open up after the interim results are released.
The nice thing about hepatitis C therapies is that
early results of a drug's efficacy are generally
highly predictive of the long-term outcomes for
patients on these compounds. Therefore investors
should have a much better idea of the potential for
HCV-796 by the time 2008 rolls around.
In late 2006, HCV-796 produced very positive phase 1b study results when compared against the current standard of care for hepatitis C. After fourteen days of treatment, when HCV-796 was added to pegylated interferon, patients had significantly lower amounts of hepatitis C in their bodies compared to those who didn't get HCV-796.
With multiple new treatment options for hepatitis C from different biopharmas in mid- and late-stage clinical studies, the treatment landscape for this disease is going to change dramatically over the next several years. If the HCV-796 phase 2 study results are as strong as the phase 1 results were, the drug stands a good chance of being one of these novel
treatment options.
just fyi:
Time to be adding not selling. Risk-benefit is as good as it gets here, similar to $7 entry point last year.
FDA Grants Fast Track Status for HCV-796 for Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Infection
Last update: 6/27/2007 8:30:00 AM
EXTON, Pa., June 27, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (VPHM) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted fast track designation for HCV-796 for treatment of hepatitis C virus infection. HCV-796, a unique orally dosed non nucleoside hepatitis C viral polymerase inhibitor that interferes with the replication of hepatitis C virus (HCV), is currently undergoing Phase 2 evaluation and is being co-developed with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth (WYE).
Under the FDA Modernization Act of 1997, fast track designation may potentially expedite the review of a drug that is intended for the treatment of a serious life-threatening condition and demonstrates the potential to address an unmet medical need for such a condition. Fast track designation allows the FDA to accept, on a rolling basis, portions of a marketing application for review prior to the completion of the final registration package. However, the designation does not guarantee approval or expedited approval of any application for the product.
"The receipt of fast track designation for HCV-796 is an important regulatory step forward as we continue to work closely with the FDA and our Wyeth colleagues throughout the development process," commented Robert Pietrusko, Pharm.D, ViroPharma's vice president of global regulatory affairs and quality.
Quote from: la-onda on June 27, 2007, 08:42:23 AM
FDA Grants Fast Track Status for HCV-796 for Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Infection
Last update: 6/27/2007 8:30:00 AM
EXTON, Pa., June 27, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (VPHM) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted fast track designation for HCV-796 for treatment of hepatitis C virus infection. HCV-796, a unique orally dosed non nucleoside hepatitis C viral polymerase inhibitor that interferes with the replication of hepatitis C virus (HCV), is currently undergoing Phase 2 evaluation and is being co-developed with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth (WYE).
Under the FDA Modernization Act of 1997, fast track designation may potentially expedite the review of a drug that is intended for the treatment of a serious life-threatening condition and demonstrates the potential to address an unmet medical need for such a condition. Fast track designation allows the FDA to accept, on a rolling basis, portions of a marketing application for review prior to the completion of the final registration package. However, the designation does not guarantee approval or expedited approval of any application for the product.
"The receipt of fast track designation for HCV-796 is an important regulatory step forward as we continue to work closely with the FDA and our Wyeth colleagues throughout the development process," commented Robert Pietrusko, Pharm.D, ViroPharma's vice president of global regulatory affairs and quality.
Was the market wrong? This will be interesting ;)
Also note this filing at the FDA :D ;D
Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Vancocin Capsules" entered June 21, 2007
http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/dailys/07/june07/062107/062107.htm
2006P-0124 Stay any approvals of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Vancocin Capsules
the boys are back in town ;D
ViroPharma initiated with "buy"
Thursday, June 28, 2007 12:51:07 PM ET
Maxim Group
NEW YORK, June 28 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Maxim Group initiate coverage of ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM) with a "buy" rating. The target price is set to $18.
Two bearish pattern are still in play.
downtrend broken imho 8)
news update:
ViroPharma Initiates Phase 3 Study of CAMVIA(TM) (maribavir) in Liver Transplant Patients
Thursday , July 05, 2007 09:00ET
EXTON, Pa., July 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced that the recently initiated second Phase 3 clinical study of CAMVIA(TM) (maribavir) in transplant patients is now open to patient recruitment. This study will evaluate the prophylactic use of CAMVIA in patients undergoing a liver transplant procedure, and will be conducted in up to 60 U.S. transplant centers. The first Phase 3 study of CAMVIA was initiated in September 2006 in patients undergoing a stem cell transplant.
ViroPharma's Phase 3 liver transplant study will compare the efficacy, safety and tolerability of prophylactic use of CAMVIA versus oral ganciclovir when administered for up to 14 weeks for the prevention of cytomegalovirus disease in recipients of orthotopic liver transplants at high risk of developing CMV disease. The study also will evaluate the pharmacokinetics of CAMVIA in this subject population.
"We have made great progress with CAMVIA in the last 12 months; the initiation of this second Phase 3 study is our latest milestone as we work towards our goal of making this important drug available for the more than 120,000 transplant patients throughout the world who are at risk of deadly CMV disease," commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "The excellent CAMVIA Phase 2 data presented at the 2006 ASH meeting encourage us as we execute on our comprehensive Phase 3 program in transplant patients."
Phase 3 Liver Transplant Study Design
This Phase 3 study is a randomized, double-blind, multicenter study intended to enroll over 300 subjects who have undergone liver transplantation and are at high-risk of developing CMV disease (i.e., donor CMV seropositive / recipient CMV seronegative). Following transplantation, eligible subjects will be randomized to receive CAMVIA 100mg BID or oral ganciclovir 1,000mg TID in a 1:1 allocation ratio for up to 14 weeks. If CMV disease, defined as symptomatic CMV infection or CMV organ disease, occurs during the study drug administration period, study drug will be discontinued and the subject will be managed according to standard CMV treatment practices at the transplant center.
The primary efficacy endpoint is the incidence of CMV disease (either symptomatic CMV infection or CMV organ disease) within 6 months post transplantation, which is expected to be approximately 12 percent in the oral ganciclovir arm of the study, based on data from published literature. A number of key secondary endpoints have been identified and assessment of these endpoints will play an important part in assessing the clinical benefit of CAMVIA. These secondary endpoints include time to onset of CMV infection and disease; the incidence and time to onset of anti-CMV therapy; and survival without CMV infection or disease; in addition to the incidence of adverse effects that limit the use of current therapies, including suppression of bone marrow function.
CAMVIA's antiviral activity and tolerability were elucidated in a Phase 2 study designed to assess the rate of CMV reactivation in patients undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation. The press release announcing the presentation of the data at the 2006 American Society of Hematology meeting can be found at the following URL: http://phx.corporate- ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-researchNewsArticle&ID=941183&highlight= (to ensure proper link, please copy and paste full address into browser)
chart update:
VPHM: Short Interest UP 13.9% to 11.8M in Jul 2007
Tuesday , July 24, 2007 16:23ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 13.9% to 11,768,013 shares for the month ended mid-July, 2007.
SYMBOL JUNE JULY CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 10,331,811 11,768,013 +1,436,202 +13.90% 10
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,231,415, it would require approximately 10 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Quote from: Terliso on June 29, 2007, 06:04:53 AM
Two bearish pattern are still in play.
Third hit from from upper trendline, looks like a good short here, breaking down the support again. ;)
have zou shorted VPHM Terliso??
hope not!
ViroPharma's 2Q Profit Beats Wall Street
Wednesday August 1, 9:18 am ET
ViroPharma's 2nd-Quarter Profit Rises 84 Percent to Eclipse Wall Street Estimates
EXTON, Pa. (AP) -- Drug maker ViroPharma Inc. said Wednesday its second-quarter profit rose 84 percent on higher sales of its gastrointestinal tract infection treatment Vancocin, beating analyst estimates.
Net income grew to $31.6 million, or 39 cents per share, from $17.2 million, or 25 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue rose 28 percent to $56.1 million from $44 million last year.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected earnings per share of 26 cents on revenue of $50.6 million. Vancocin posted a 28 percent rise in second-quarter net sales to a record $56 million. Income rose primarily on higher net sales and increased gross product margin rates, offset by costs related to drug development in viral diseases, the company said.
&
ViroPharma Raises 2007 Sales Guidance
Wednesday August 1, 10:37 am ET
ViroPharma Raises 2007 Revenue Guidance in Line With Wall Street Expectations
EXTON, Pa. (AP) -- Drug maker ViroPharma Inc. revised Wednesday its revenue guidance for 2007 in line with Wall Street's expectations.
The company projects 2007 net product sales between $200 million and $208 million, up from its previous guidance, announced in February, of between $195 million and $205 million.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average estimate full-year revenue of $206.2 million. Gross margin rate for Vancocin, the company's treatment for gastrointestinal tract infections, is expected to exceed 90 percent, ViroPharma reiterated. The company said research and development as well as marketing, general and administrative expenses are expected between $71.5 million and $80.5 million, which includes the impact of stock-based compensation expense. Its prior guidance had pegged R&D and MG&A between $67.5 million and $80.5 million. Separately, ViroPharma said its second-quarter profit rose 84 percent on higher sales of its drug Vancocin.
cheers
Oliver
1)
Zack update:
OUTLOOK
ViroPharma, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of products that address diseases caused by infectious agents such as a
virus or pathogenic bacteria. The company has one approved product, Vancocin Capsules, for the treatment of antibiotic-associated infection, and two mid-stage candidates for viral infections. Recent concerns over a generic alternative to Vancocin have hampered the stock.
This is keeping ViroPharma trading at a significant discount to its peers. The company has filed a Citizens Petition to the FDA-OGD to halt generic entrants.
Outside of Vancocin, clinical-stage candidates Camvia and HCV-796 offer the next substantial growth opportunities. We believe the shares are vastly undervalued. Our target is $22.
KEY POINTS
The near-term future of ViroPharma is heavily dependant on sales of Vancocin Capsules. Guidance for 2007 is for sales between $200 and $208 million. Our estimate is above guidance at $210.1 million, growth of 26% over 2006 driven by strong demand and price increases.
Generic manufacturers, including an Akorn-Strides JV, have announced their intent to bring a generic Vancocin (oral vancomycin) to the market. Guideline changes at the Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) in early 2006 have seemingly facilitated the application process for a locally acting GI drug such as Vancocin, removing the necessity for human clinical trials before approval. This could allow for ANDA approvals for generic oral vancomycin in 2008 two years earlier than previously expected given the old guidelines. The company has filed a Citizen s Petition to the OGD with two formal letters outlining the legal protocol and scientific merits to halt an early generic alternative on May 31, 2006 and June 30, 2006, respectively. The company is also conducting an exploratory study to characterize the intestinal track of patients infected with C.
difficile. ViroPharma will now wait for OGD responses to the two letters or the GI data.
We believe the company is making great progress with the pipeline and both HCV-796 and Camvia offer the next wave of growth for shareholders. Investor concern is too focused on the generic Vancocin risk. ViroPharma will be a significantly more diversified company once these two drugs are on the market.
Our Buy Call: Sales of Vancocin were very strong in the second quarter 2007. Sales growth grew 28% in the quarter and remains very strong. We are also very excited about the potential for Camvia. Camvia is significantly under-appreciated in our view. Finally, as far as the legal and scientific petition to the OGD, we believe that ViroPharma s position is strong. The risk of a generic product before 2009 is low in our view.
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
No ANDAs have yet been approved on Vancocin. Akorn-Strides commented recently that they expect a decision by the FDA before year-end 2007. We do not know the current status of Akorn or Strides BE testing. However, we have long said that gaining approval for generic Vancocin will be difficult given the manufacturing challenges. We had previously believed even if Cipla started today, they would not gain approval until late 2008 based on the manufacturing validation necessary to product a Vancocin capsule. It took ViroPharma over a year to get validation from the third party manufacturer in the first quarter of 2006. The legal and scientific arguments submitted by ViroPharma are rock solid in our view. We do not believe the FDA would approve an ANDA without addressing the Citizen s Petition , or CP. This has yet to occur. We think the exploratory study being conducted by ViroPharma will further add to the solid view of the scientific argument pertaining to the CP. We are concerned about this generic risk but also remind investors that ViroPharma could be a dramatically different looking company in 2010 if pipeline candidates such as Camvia or HCV-796 succeed. So far the data on Camvia and HCV-796 looks very encouraging. Based on the recent very positive phase II Camvia data, this
candidate may be the driving force of the future. Peak sales estimates for Camvia could quadruple that of Vancocin. Likewise, we are excited about HCV-796 and please to see the FDA grant Fast Track development status to the drug in June 2007. Additionally, we expect ViroPharma to seek to in-license one or two more products over the next few quarters. And, despite generic risk and emerging competition, Vancocin Capsules will probably remain the industry standard for at least the next 18 months. Management guidance for 2007 seems conservative given the lack of immediate competition for the drug and another expected price increase shortly.
VALUATION
We are maintaining our buy rating on shares of ViroPharma heading into the second half of the year. We are pleased to see sales of Vancocin on tract with our yearly forecasts. Management increased guidance over the previous range of $195 to $205 million to $200 to $208 million for 2007. Our forecast of $210.1 million for Vancocin Capsules sales in 2007 is just above management s guidance on our belief that the remainder of the year will continue the strength seen in the first half. We also feel the recent 9.4% price increase and now under-control
inventory situation will help management meet or exceed their guidance. Camvia looks like a big winner given the recent very positive phase II results. Other candidates such as HCV-796
also look very solid given the positive phase Ib data recently presented at EASL. Both these candidates are progressing forward with the next stage of clinical work as we head into the fall of 2007. Management expects to add one or two additional value drivers to the portfolio over the next several quarters. In 2006 we saw the company in-license a pre-clinical Non-Tox C. difficile candidate from the Hines VA Hospital. ViroPharma held $517 million in cash on hand at the end of the first quarter. This amount includes $37 million in cash generated during the
quarter and $219 million in net proceeds from the recent 2% senior convertible 2017 notes in March. We note the company is very well capitalized, generating cash, and actively seeking opportunities. In our view, ViroPharma is one of the best managed companies in biotech. We are very confident in the financial and strategic position of the company it is key to our Buy recommendation. At this level ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Over half the market capitalization is cash. Our 2007 revenue forecast of $210.5 million yields a price to sales ratio of 5.1x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 8.5x. We forecast 2007 EPS at $1.25 (including option expense). The price to earnings ratio of 10.2x is so far below peer-group we can t help but wonder whether a company like GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol-Myers, or Wyeth would be interested in acquiring ViroPharma. ViroPharma s stock sank in March 2006 on fears of generic Vancocin. Since that time the company has progressed with Camvia and HCV-796 to the point where we now include both candiates in our long-term model. We have recently expanded our model to include 2011 EPS. Investors concerned with generic Vancocin should begin to pay attention to sales of Camvia for CMV. We think the candidate offers a much more significant growth opportunity over the long-term.
We think the market is too focused on the generic risk to Vancocin. We see the Citizens Petition as solid and the recently initiated exploratory study to characterize the GI track of healthy vs. infected patients will only help add to the scientific validity of management s claim. The two letters made public outlining the legal and scientific merits for a judgment stay are rather convincing in our view. The OGD clearly violated a number of laws and its own standard
of conduct with its bioequivalencey testing guideline change apparently made in February 2006. Additionally, Vancocin clearly does not meet several of the OGD s own instituted criteria for in vitro dissolution testing. We expect the ODG to respond favorably to ViroPharma s actions.
Volatility acknowledged, we would be buyers of the stock at this level.
Our $22 price target is based on 17.5x our 2007 EPS estimate of $1.25. This 17.5x is a discount to the peer-group s 26.5x based on the risk of generic Vancocin. A positive response by the OGD and we believe the stock could easily eclipse our target.
2)
BUYINS.NET: (VPHM) SqueezeTrigger Price is $13.889. There is $164,516,640.00 That Short Sellers Still Need To Cover
Wednesday, August 01, 2007 12:53ET
Aug 01, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- BUYINS.NET / www.squeezetrigger.com is monitoring VIROPHARMA INC (NASDAQ:VPHM) in real time and just received an alert that is crossing above its primary SqueezeTrigger Price, the price that a short squeeze can start in any stock. There are 11768000 shares that have been shorted at the volume weighted average SqueezeTrigger Price of $13.889. To access SqueezeTrigger Prices ahead of potential short squeezes beginning, visit http://www.squeezetrigger.com. From January 2005 to July 2007, an aggregate amount of 303198222 shares of VPHM have been shorted for a total dollar value of $3,941,576,886.00. The VPHM SqueezeTrigger price of $13.889 is the volume weighted average price that all shorts are short in shares of VPHM. There is still approximately $164,516,640.00 of potential short covering in shares of VPHM.
Charts & Zack Report for downloading (nice details about the awesome pipeline ;) )
fyi:
Don't Discount ViroPharma
By Brian Lawler August 6, 2007
Last week, exciting biopharma ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced its second-quarter financial results and updated investors on what's ahead for the rest of the year.
Sales of ViroPharma's only marketed product, the oral antibiotic Vancocin, were up 28% year over year in the second quarter to $56 million. Net income was up more than 80% to $31.6 million, or $0.39 per share on a diluted basis.
Because of two ongoing phase 3 studies for its transplant drug maribavir and other R&D expenditures, the second half of the year won't be as strong financially as the first half was. But even on the low end of its guidance, ViroPharma expects to bring in approximately $100 million in net income for the year, or about $1.18 in diluted earnings per share for 2007, at today's share count.
Potential competitor Idenix Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: IDIX) had development of its hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor put on hold by the FDA last month. This puts ViroPharma and partner Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) in the lead to develop the first HCV polymerase inhibitor with their compound, dubbed HCV-796.
Late last year, the partners announced positive phase 1b study results for HCV-796. In May, ViroPharma completed enrollment of the initial treatment groups for a phase 2 study of the drug. Data from four weeks of dosing is expected this quarter, which will give an initial idea of whether the drug is reducing hepatitis C viral load as expected. Vital 12-week patient dosing of the drug will come in the fourth quarter, which should give investors a better idea of how HCV-796 compares with existing treatments in eliminating the hepatitis C virus from the body.
ViroPharma has an enterprise value of nearly $700 million. Considering that its lead drug is highly profitable and has two strong pipeline candidates in development, shares of ViroPharma don't look expensive.
ViroPharma guided for a potential maribavir FDA regulatory filing in 2009 and a similar timeframe for a European Union marketing application as well. All it would take is for one success with its pipeline, or the failure of a generic Vancocin to appear, and shares of ViroPharma would look like a steal at today's prices. Investors might not get to wait that long, though; ViroPharma would be a perfect fit for an acquirer such as Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD) or Genzyme (Nasdaq: GENZ).
Cowen update:
We Downgrade ViroPharma; Investor Opinion Mixed On Interim Phase 2
Data For HCV-796 - Cowen Comments
(RTTNews) - Wednesday, Cowen downgraded ViroPharma, Inc. (VPHM)
shares to Neutral from Outperform. The brokerage raised its 2007 EPS estimate to $1.23 from $1.15, while lowering its 2008 estimate to $1.16 from $1.25.
Analyst Rachel McMinn said that the investor opinion is mixed on what to expect from interim Phase 2 data for VPHM's HCV-796 for hepatitis C virus. Additionally, investors are split on whether VPHM's cash cow Vancocin will be impacted as early as 2008 by generic competition and how dramatic the impact would be.
The analyst believes investors will need to gain additional confidence in both Vancocin and HCV-796 for VPHM shares to outperform over the next 12 months. Expectations for an upcoming Phase 2 interim analysis for '796 are set well below those for Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Inc.'s (VRTX) telaprevir, which the analyst views as appropriate, and it appears investors are generally looking to gain comfort in the potential combinability of '796 with telaprevir or Schering-Plough Corp.'s (SGP) boceprevir.
The analyst sees 3 key '796 risks: potential failure for '796 to suppress HCV levels below detection in at least 40-60% of patients at 4-weeks, a minimum threshold that will give us confidence '796 can be developed independent of other HCV agents; potential delay in
starting Phase 3 and increasing visibility of competing non- nucleoside products.
Separately, the analyst expects generic Vancocin concerns to remain an overhang for VPHM until there is clarity around the timelines for generic approval. Phase 2 data for VPHM's anti-CMV product Camvia suggest a promising profile. However, given limited news flow on
Camvia until the second half of 2008, the analyst expects Vancocin and '796 news to drive investor interest. The analyst's analysis suggests shares are fairly valued given the uncertainties that lie ahead for Vancocin and '796.
The analyst noted that VPHM shares are undervalued on the basis of current and near term cash flow and the pipeline assets. Camvia could be a $500 million+ product and '796, while not as impressive as telaprevir, will ultimately be incorporated into a new standard of care for HCV and thus is underappreciated.
Currently, the stock is down $0.16 or 1.23% and trading at $12.84.
THIS DOWNGRADE IS BULLSHIT IMHO, I have bought some Feb08 15$ calls today >:D
Quote from: Terliso on July 26, 2007, 12:09:31 AM
Quote from: Terliso on June 29, 2007, 06:04:53 AM
Two bearish pattern are still in play.
Third hit from from upper trendline, looks like a good short here, breaking down the support again. ;)
There you go (3 Magic Breakdown for VPHM)..... the bearish patterns are kicking in and the chart now is too ugly to ignore.
Quote from: Terliso on August 08, 2007, 11:24:57 PM
Quote from: Terliso on July 26, 2007, 12:09:31 AM
Quote from: Terliso on June 29, 2007, 06:04:53 AM
Two bearish pattern are still in play.
Third hit from from upper trendline, looks like a good short here, breaking down the support again. ;)
There you go (3 Magic Breakdown for VPHM)..... the bearish patterns are kicking in and the chart now is too ugly to ignore.
I must admit that your analysis was wright, my was wrong :-\
Now I have to pay for it.... >:(
Applause Terliso
cheers
Oliver
I am fucked up with my Feb 08 option call 15$ :-[
minus 80% in 2 days, wow I am a real expert................
ViroPharma, Wyeth stop dosing in study
Friday , August 10, 2007 10:37ET
By Staff Reporter
NEW YORK, Aug 10, 2007 (AP via COMTEX) -- ViroPharma Inc. and partner Wyeth will stop dosing patients in a mid-stage clinical trial of its hepatitis C treatment candidate, citing safety concerns.
The decision on drug candidate HCV-796 follows a review by the joint safety review board of the FDA. The company had found that 8 percent of patients receiving the drug candidate in combination with pegylated interferon and ribavirin had elevated liver enzymes.
Elevated liver enzymes could be an indicator of liver disease. In comparison, only 1 percent of patients in the control arm of the study, who received only pegylated interferon and ribavirin, had elevated liver enzymes.
ViroPharma said patients in the study will have the option to continue therapy, but without HCV-796.
The company did say the drug candidate showed antiviral activity, though those results are preliminary.
"This is a clear disappointment in light of the exciting antiviral activity observed to date in this study. Although this represents a potential setback for hepatitis C patients, we are committed to the health and safety of patients, and this decision was absolutely the right thing to do," said Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's president and chief executive.
Separately, Wyeth said the FDA denied approval for the its schizophrenia treatment candidate bifeprunox, citing effectiveness and safety concerns.
ViroPharma shares plunged $1.73, or 17 percent, to $8.49 in morning trading. Wyeth shares fell $1.97, or 4 percent, to $47.61.
Quote from: la-onda on August 10, 2007, 11:31:41 AM
I am fucked up with my Feb 08 option call 15$ :-[
minus 80% in 2 days, wow I am a real expert................
I'm sorry for your loss La-onda... but the $9.20 target is made today, VPHM should bounce and close that gap....
This 3 magic breakdown is crazy, I've seen a lot of this, and they go down fast furious. I'm glad David sold this one too prior to this BIG plunge.
Quote from: Terliso on August 10, 2007, 12:12:37 PM
Quote from: la-onda on August 10, 2007, 11:31:41 AM
I am fucked up with my Feb 08 option call 15$ :-[
minus 80% in 2 days, wow I am a real expert................
I'm sorry for your loss La-onda... but the $9.20 target is made today, VPHM should bounce and close that gap....
This 3 magic breakdown is crazy, I've seen a lot of this, and they go down fast furious. I'm glad David sold this one too prior to this BIG plunge.
i think you meant target 10.22 (gap closing)
Quote from: ket1390 on August 10, 2007, 01:28:51 PM
i think you meant target 10.22 (gap closing)
$9.20 is the Technical target from Top Head & shoulders pattern... it is roughly around $9.20
18.39 - 13.80 = $4.59
13.80 - 04.59 = $9.21 ;)
ViroPharma Whacked by Data
By Brian Lawler August 10, 2007
Hopefully drug developer ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) was only on everyone's watch list today as shares were down more than 18% following the announcement that it was halting dosing of its hepatitis C antiviral compound in a phase 2 study.
ViroPharma's hepatitis C drug candidate, HCV-796, is being developed with partner Wyeth (NYSE: WYE). Of all the HCV polymerase inhibitor drug candidates it was the furthest along in testing after Idenix Pharmaceuticals' (Nasdaq: IDIX) polymerase inhibitor failed in a phase 2 study two months ago.
What led ViroPharma and Wyeth to end dosing of HCV-796 was that 8% of patients taking the drug in the phase 2 study were experiencing higher liver enzyme levels compared to only 1% of patients in the standard of care arm of the study.
Elevations of liver enzymes are a concern for any drug because they often are an early indicator of liver-related disorders if whatever is causing the raised enzyme levels is not corrected. That this issue didn't show up in earlier human studies of HCV-796 is likely due to the short-term nature of the studies and the fact that hepatitis C is a disease that adversely affects the liver by itself.
If there is a small sliver of hope from the study results announced today, it is that HCV-796 was highly active in eliminating HCV for genotype-1 patients who have previously failed treatment with the standard of care. Twenty-three percent of those null responders (as ViroPharma calls them) had undetectable levels of the virus in their bodies after only 12 weeks of treatment. Undetectable hepatitis C viral loads are a strong indicator of later being declared cured of the disease; currently there are no good treatment options for these non-responder patients.
As the FDA likes to point out, though, raised liver enzyme levels is the number one cause of all drug adverse events and, more worringly, all new drug application rejections. At best, these results suggest that any path forward for HCV-796 would be as a second-line agent for hepatitis C genotype-1 patients failing existing therapies.
There is still a long-shot possibility for the drug if the liver enzyme issues can be corrected or reduced in future studies. Examples of possible solutions include either lowering the dosing of HCV-796 or shortening the treatment duration, but investors shouldn't hold their breath that the drug will remain in development.
These safety issues are definitely a major setback for HCV-796 but it's also worth noting that shares of ViroPharma are at dirt cheap levels right now. The company has a market cap of $580 million with operating income of at least $100 million expected this year and over $260 million in net cash as of the end of the second quarter.
Dosing of the company's hepatitis C drug HCV-796 was stopped after patients in an ongoing phase II study developed liver toxicity. Viropharma and its partner Wyeth (WYE) have not permanently shelved the HCV-796 yet, but a drug that causes liver toxicity, especially in hepatitis C patients, is an extremely serious problem.
It's unfortunate because HCV-796 appears to have a strong antiviral effect against the hepatitis C virus, but I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where HCV-796 survives this setback.
When Jimmy emailed me his question, HCV-796 was still a viable and promising drug in Viropharma's pipeline. In fact, I wrote this column on Thursday, so I had to revise it when the HCV-796 news hit Friday.
I can understand how Jimmy viewed Viropharma as undervalued prior to this recent setback. Second-quarter earnings easily topped Wall Street estimates and the company raised 2007 sales guidance for Vancocin, its treatment for gastrointestinal tract infections.
At Thursday's closing price of $10.22, Viropharma was trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 12 times estimated 2008 earnings, or 4 times estimated 2008 sales.
Cheap, right? Well, not exactly. The reason that investors were discounting Viropharma's valuation is because of worries that Vancocin would face generic competition next year. Vancocin gross margins are in the 90%-plus range and because of that the drug generates a good amount of cash flow for Viropharma.
That's great, but if a cheaper generic version of Vancocin is launched, Viropharma's operating business takes a big hit. You can see that playing out in the current analyst estimates: They have Viropharma earning $1.17 per share this year but only 86 cents per share in 2008.
Viropharma is fighting efforts by Akorn (AKRX) to launch a generic Vancocin by late this year/early next year. At this point, it's not clear who will win, but even if Viropharma can delay a generic launch, competition for Vancocin is coming eventually. This explains, partially, why the stock seemed undervalued.
It also explains why Viropharma's ability to advance its drug pipeline is so important to the investment thesis. HCV-796 was a linchpin in that effort, but now it's probably gone. At the very least, whatever value ascribed to the drug by investors will be all but erased.
That leaves Camvia as the most important drug in Viropharma's pipeline. The antiviral drug is being developed to protect stem cell transplant and liver transplant patients from infection with cytomegalovirus - a common virus but one that can cause serious health problems for people with weakened immune systems.
Two phase III studies of Camvia are currently enrolling, with data from the first, in stem call transplant patients, due in the second half of 2008.
As I write this Friday morning, Viropharma is down $2.42, or 24%, to $7.80 per share. Unfortunately, generic Vancocin concerns plus the blow-up of HCV-796 are likely to outweigh any enthusiasm for Camvia in the near term.
Clearly VPHM had some kind of problem, that's why its valuation was so low. In fact, there were two problems, one is the probable generic competition to Vancocin, but everybody knew about that, and the second was publicly known on Friday:
• Potential Safety Issue Identified in Ongoing Phase 2 Clinical Study of HCV-796 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070810/nef022.html?.v=15)
PR Newswire (Fri, Aug 10)
I think this is a setback for this Hepatitis C treatment, but not at all the end of it. They'll just have to correct some issues and then get back to testing.
In the meantime VPHM's results have been superb and the cash pile is mounting, currently to an excess of $516 M (there's also $273 M in liabilities) - and the market cap is just $607 M.
I think VPHM will have EPS of about $1.4 in 2007, so the stock is trading at just 6.2 times earnings, all due to fears of generic competition for Vancocin (but the company is fighting this and there's no assurance doctors will start prescribing the generic drug when and if it becomes available) - and now this setback in HCV-796.
But, beyond Vancocin and HCB-796, there's Maribavir, which may represent $400 M in annual revenue when it's fully approved and commercialized.
Anyway, I just feel VPHM's bad news were already discounted by the market and Friday's sell off was an exaggeration. I expect the stock to bounce strongly over the next few days, to at least close the gap at $10.15.
This will be a trade, not an investment.
The trading plan is:
Buy 6.66% of capital in VPHM, at the open and if the open is below $8.9 (pass the trade if the stock opens above $8.9).
QuoteBuy 6.66% of capital in VPHM, at the open and if the open is below $8.9 (pass the trade if the stock opens above $8.9).
The open was too high, I've passed the trade, as planned. Good luck if you bought.
ViroPharma "buy," target price reduced
Monday, August 13, 2007 8:30:15 AM ET
Lazard Capital Markets
NEW YORK, August 13 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital maintain their "buy" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM), while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from $24 to $18.
In a research note published on August 10, the analysts mention that a rise in the incidence of liver enzymes has resulted in the termination of the Phase II trial dosing of HCV-796 in patients with hepatitis-C virus by the company and its partner Wyeth. ViroPharma is expected to continue to incur R&D expenses through 2010, since it is likely to explore further treatment options with the drug, the analysts say. The fully-diluted EPS estimate for 2012 has been reduced from $1.69 to $1.25.
should run bought today 8.38 >:D
lets see if the break out continues >:D....in case we are prepared stop loss 8.12
Jumped in at 8.76, now lets fill that gap!
nice insider trading:
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/946840.htm
chart:
Quote from: Terliso on August 10, 2007, 12:12:37 PM
I'm sorry for your loss La-onda... but the $9.20 target is made today, VPHM should bounce and close that gap....
The gap is almost close. ;D .... I expect VPHM to test the resistance, prior support, around $12.50.
Knocked it's head on the 10.15 resistance but pulled back on low volume. Maybe a chance to break it.
ViroPharma to Present at Three Upcoming Healthcare Conferences
Thursday , August 30, 2007 13:10ET
EXTON, Pa., Aug. 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced that Vincent Milano, vice-president, chief operating officer and chief financial officer of ViroPharma, will present at the Thomas Weisel Partners 2007 Healthcare Conference at 8:00 A.M. ET on Wednesday, September 5, 2007. The conference is being held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Boston, MA.
Mr. Milano will also present at the 14th Annual BioCentury Newsmakers in the Biotech Industry Conference at 1:30 P.M. ET on Thursday, September 6, 2007. The conference is being held at the Millennium Broadway Hotel in New York.
ViroPharma also announced that Michel de Rosen, president and chief executive officer of ViroPharma, will present at the Bear Stearns 20th Annual Healthcare Conference at 3:30 P.M. ET on Monday, September 10, 2007. The conference is being held at the Grand Hyatt in New York.
showing some signs of life? I think I have a much better pick. Read about it tommorrow on the members board.
Melf's update:
http://melfsworkshop.blogspot.com/2007/10/vphm-in-crash-recoveryagain.html
;)
VPHM update:
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Third Quarter and Nine-Month 2007 Financial Results
Tuesday , October 30, 2007 07:00ET
EXTON, Pa., Oct. 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) reported today its financial results for the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2007.
Key events since June 30, 2007 include:
Clinical:
-- Patient enrollment began in a Phase 3 study of Camvia(TM) (maribavir)
in liver transplant patients;
-- Patient enrollment continued to the plan in Phase 3 study of Camvia in
stem cell transplant patients; study enrollment expanded to European
sites;
-- Dosing with HCV-796 was discontinued in an ongoing Phase 2 combination
study in hepatitis C patients following discovery of elevated liver
enzyme levels in a subset of patients; trial participants continue to
receive pegylated interferon and ribavirin in this study; and
-- New data presented at the 2007 Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial
Agents and Chemotherapy (ICAAC) meeting by Genzyme Corporation show
Vancocin(R) is superior in clinical success to metronidazole and
Genzyme's experimental compound in patients with severe CDAD (Louie et
al., 2007).
Operational:
-- Net sales of Vancocin(R) were $51 million;
-- Launched new sales and marketing initiatives for Vancocin; and
-- Research and development expenses increased by 40 percent over the
third quarter of 2006, primarily driven by investments in Camvia.
Financial:
-- Operating income was $27.9 million;
-- Working capital increased by $31 million to $573 million;
-- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew to $552 million;
and
-- 11th consecutive quarter of cash flow positivity and profitability
achieved.
Net sales of Vancocin(R) were $50.9 million for the third quarter of 2007 and $156.1 million for the first nine months of 2007 as compared to $55.1 million and $128.2 million in the respective 2006 periods. Operating income in the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2007 was $27.9 million and $96.7 million, respectively, compared to $34.5 million and $73.7 million in the third quarter and nine months of 2006, respectively. Operating income in the third quarter decreased primarily due to lower sales and increased development costs incurred during the quarter.
"Increased momentum in our Phase 3 Camvia program is of utmost importance to ViroPharma; the third quarter of 2007 reflected this momentum, as shown by the dramatic increase in clinical expenses this period over that of the same quarter in 2006," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "For example, we began enrolling into our pivotal Phase 3 trial in liver transplant recipients. There is tremendous global enthusiasm by investigators in this study, as well as in our ongoing pivotal study in stem cell transplant recipients. We also made good progress in elucidating the regulatory and clinical plan for Camvia in Europe. The third quarter was not only a great quarter of clinical execution, but also strong financially. The continued, robust performance of Vancocin helped grow our working capital to $573 million, of which $552 million is in cash, cash equivalents and short- term investments."
Continued de Rosen, "Another company engaged in developing novel therapeutics targeting CDAD, Genzyme Corporation, presented data during the quarter which, among other things, compared clinical success with Vancocin to that of metronidazole and their investigational compound in patients with CDAD. These statistically significant results (p=0.04) showed that in cases of severe disease, patients achieved a higher clinical success rate than patients on metronidazole or the investigational compound. These data confirm the efficacy and safety of Vancocin in patients with severe CDAD and we expect that these data and the IDSA/SHEA guidelines for treatment of CDAD will be strongly considered in treatment recommendations."
Net income in the third quarter and nine-months ended September 30, 2007 was $21.3 million and $75.0 million, respectively, compared to a net income of $23.3 million and $48.7 million for the same periods in 2006. Net income per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2007 was $0.30 per share, basic and $0.26 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.34 per share, basic, and $0.33 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2006. Net income per share for the nine-months ended September 30, 2007 was $1.07 per share, basic, and $0.96 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.71 per share, basic, and $0.69 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2006.
The primary drivers of the change in net income for the third quarter were the effects of decreased operating income discussed above, offset by increased interest income and a lower effective tax rate. Net income for the nine month period increased primarily due to higher net sales.
Operating Highlights
During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2007, net sales of Vancocin decreased 7.6 percent and increased 21.8 percent, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2006. The decrease in net sales of 7.6 percent resulted from fewer units sold to wholesalers in the third quarter of 2007 than during the third quarter of 2006 as a result of wholesaler buyer decisions to increase inventory levels in the third quarter of 2006. The nine month increase of 21.8 percent resulted from an increase in units sold to wholesalers and the impact of a price increase in 2007. The gross product margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased to over 95 percent in the 2007 periods as compared to 91 percent and 87 percent for the third quarter and nine months of 2006, respectively. The increase is the result of the price increases and lower cost of sales per unit. This lower cost primarily results from the sale of units during the first half of 2007, which were manufactured by NPI Pharmaceuticals (formerly OSG Norwich) and carried a lower inventory cost than the units sold during the first half of 2006 that were manufactured by Eli Lilly & Co.
The total remaining costs and expenses associated with operating income were $21.0 million and $15.9 million, for the third quarter of 2007 and 2006, respectively, and $52.4 million and $37.9 million, for the nine months of 2007 and 2006, respectively. These increases are primarily due to research and development costs, increased medical education and legal costs as well as an increase in stock compensation expense.
The Company's effective income tax rate was 36.4 percent and 37.3 percent for the quarters ended September 30, 2007 and 2006, respectively, and 32.3 percent and 38.1 percent for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 and 2006, respectively. Income tax expense includes federal, state and foreign income tax at statutory rates and the effects of various permanent differences. The decrease in the 2007 rate as compared to 2006 is primarily due to our current estimate of the impact of orphan drug credit for Camvia. The Company currently anticipates an effective tax rate of approximately 33 percent for the year ended December 31, 2007, which includes an estimate related to Camvia's orphan drug credit based upon estimates of qualified expenses and excludes the impact of discrete items. The Company continues to evaluate our qualified expenses and, to the extent that actual qualified expenses vary significantly from our estimates, our effective tax rate will be impacted.
Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of September 30, 2007 exceeded the maximum milestone threshold of $65.0 million. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $6.0 million to intangible assets in June 2007, which was paid to Lilly in the third quarter. No purchase price consideration will be due to Lilly relating to net sales occurring in the remainder of 2007.
Working Capital Highlights
As of September 30, 2007, ViroPharma's working capital was $573.3 million, which represents a $306.9 million increase from December 31, 2006, $31.2 million of which occurred in the third quarter of 2007. The nine month increase is primarily the result of the senior convertible notes issued on March 26, 2007 and cash flows.
Looking ahead in 2007
ViroPharma is updating previously announced guidance for the year 2007 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
For the year 2007, ViroPharma anticipates the following:
-- Net product sales are expected to be between $202 to $208 million;
-- Gross margin rate for Vancocin is expected to be consistent with our
actual results in the first nine months of 2007;
-- Research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and
administrative (MG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are
expected to be between $68 to $73 million.
-- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be approximately $8
million. Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and
development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A)
expenses are expected to be between $76 and $81 million.
&
VPHM: Short Interest UP 2.8% to 10.5M in Mid Oct 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007 16:28ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 2.8% to 10,537,271 shares as reported in mid-October, 2007.
SYMBOL END SEPTEMBER MID OCTOBER CHANGE %CHANGE DAYS/COVER
-------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ ----------
VPHM 10,251,313 10,537,271 +285,958 +2.79% 9
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,227,520, it would require approximately 9 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
&
NWI quotation:
ViroPharma (VPHM) reported $50.9 million in sales and 26 cents a share, compared with the consensus expectation for $52.6 million in sales and 28 cents. Revenues were a bit light because sales of Vancocin fell $4.2 million or 7.6% from last year's artificially high level, due to wholesaler stocking in the 2006 third quarter. The company is also accelerating its R&D investment in Camvia for transplant patients.
Vancocin sales are up 22% for the nine months, so I think this decline is a one-quarter problem. Management said that the market for Vancocin's class of therapies is maturing, but they then raised the bottom of their sales forecast for 2007 to $202 million, keeping the top of the range at $208 million. They also pointed out that during the quarter, Genzyme's competing drug in Phase III trials failed to show non-inferiority against Vancocin. And, of course, no one has filed for generic Vancocin yet. At this point no one could get a product into the marketplace earlier than ViroPharma management has expected all along.
The consensus for the December quarter is $51.9 million and 24 cents, and I think that's too low. They have $552 million in cash, and the stock trades with a total market capitalization of only $563 million, with $250 million in convertible debt. It's as if Vancocin and Camvia are near-worthless, which is ridiculous.
They will use some of the cash to do an acquisition or in-licensing deal. It could happen any day, and the stock will go up on the news. How do I know that? Because this management is very smart, they won't overpay, and they will have strategic plans in place for anything that they buy that they can talk about right from the first conference call that announces the deal.
I've been doing some work on methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), the disastrous mutation that is wreaking havoc in Southeastern hospitals. Vancomycin remains the reference standard for treating this systemic infection. Buy VPHM up to $12 for my $25 target or better.
Chart:
It's interesting to note how ASPV (remember this one?) was so cheap, yet the market didn't push the price up ... this until it was taken over for $26 a share:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41999;image)
VPHM is another very cheap biotechnology stock (trading at 7 times 2007 EPS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=VPHM)), I want to keep it under the radar.
just fyi (quotation):
This successfully defended the 8.25 support level from last week and turned up creating another higher low as this is now prepared to test the 9.15 resistance and the top of the symetrical triangle. What timing, with Christmas next week and only 3 1/2 days of trading. It sure doesn't help that the hourly oscillators are very oversold also. Not really an ideal time to be taking on a tough resistance level. The chart is getting a more bullish feel to it though and the accumulation and money flow indicators are turning bullish and volume picked up the last couple days. There hasn't been a high volume down day for a good month and the up days reflect distinctly higher volume. The lack of price movement reflects accumulation taking place. I think it will be real interesting to see what the short interest is when those numbers come out later this month. With bullish volume increasing and bearish volume decreasing I just wonder if there is some short covering slowly taking place. With the 50ema soundly taken out today and with the RSI doing the jig with the 50 for about a month now (rather than dropping back down into oversold) and the Bollinger bands squeezing, I think a strong move will be coming soon. Perhaps not next week, but soon and I think the odds are favoring the bulls.
why 2008 will be a good year for VPHM (from irc)
A generic will not be approved in 2007. The burden of proof will then switch from VPHM to AKRX as AKRX will have lost its credibility. The fact of the matter is FDA will not approve a generic Vancocin without clinical trials to prove BE. The safety risks exceed any perceived benefits of allowing dissolution testing to replace clinical trials. The market is not that big. CDI is a deadly infection. The heat is on the FDA to ensure the safety of drugs. They would be absolute idiots
to require anything less than clinical trials to prove BE.
This stock is getting ready to take off. I have not looked at the prospectus lately, but I believe the bond owners can convert at a price equal to 130% of the quarter ending price. (Can anyone verify this?) When the bondholders converted the last time convertible bonds
were issued, the stock rose from around $3 to $24 in six months.
This event also coincided with a decreasing short interest.
As the notes are converted, the net cash per share goes up significantly. Fully diluted earnings per share is already being calculated as if the bonds have been converted so there will not be
any further dilution upon conversion. Because of the call that VPHM owns and the warrants, actual dilution may be less than what has been reflected in the EPS calculations.
Look for no generic Vancocin in the forseeable future, a path forward for HCV-796 announced shortly, and a Camvia teach in in February with new positive data/developments being announced about Phase III. We are about to see some excitng positive develpoments both in terms of the company and its share price. These developments should make the
mediocre earnings (due to increased Camvia R&D expenses) of the fourth quarter irrelevant in terms of share price.
2008 will be a great year for all VPHM longs with positive cash flow, a debt free balance sheet with cash approach 3/4 of a billion dollars and Camvia about to be approved as a prophylactic for CMV disease and graft host disease. Camvia will also be approved to be used in those cases where the patient gets CMV disease thus replacing to a significant extent, the black box treatments currently used.
VPHM: Short Interest DN 5.9% to 10.1M in Mid Dec 2007
Wednesday, December 26, 2007 16:22ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 5.9% to 10,075,890 shares as reported in mid-December, 2007.
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,067,545, it would require approximately 10 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet.com Ratings, Inc. for Rating History
RECOMMENDATION
We rate VIROPHARMA INC (VPHM) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most
other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its attractive valuation levels, expanding profit margins and largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures.
However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including deteriorating net income, weak operating cash flow and a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself.
HIGHLIGHTS
The gross profit margin for VIROPHARMA INC is currently very high, coming in at 96.50%. It has increased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of 41.80% significantly outperformed against the industry average.
Despite currently having a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53, it is higher than that of the industry average, inferring that management of debt levels may need to be evaluated further. Even though the debt-to-equity ratio shows mixed results, the company's quick ratio of 26.62 is very
high and demonstrates very strong liquidity.
The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and greatly underperformed compared to the Pharmaceuticals industry average. The net income has decreased by 8.5% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, dropping from $23.28 million to $21.29 million.
Net operating cash flow has declined marginally to $40.36 million or 4.61% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing the cash generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is significantly lower.
ViroPharma "market perform"
Monday, December 31, 2007 6:22:47 AM ET
Rodman & Renshaw
NEW YORK, December 31 (newratings.com) - Analyst Michael G King Jr of Rodman & Renshaw maintains his "market perform" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM).
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that sales of the company's Vancocin drug declined by 3.4% m/m in November. Vancocin's sales are tracking in-line with the estimates for 4Q07, the analyst says.
:o :o
good update:
ViroPharma Provides Update on Vancocin(R)
Tuesday , January 08, 2008 07:53ET
EXTON, Pa., Jan. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today provided the following update on its petition to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding Vancocin(R) (vancomycin hydrochloride capsules).
As part of the company's continuing efforts to assure the safety of patients afflicted with Clostridium difficile infection, ViroPharma yesterday presented its views on the in vitro dissolution bioequivalence method proposed by OGD, as well as important related health and safety information, to officials in the FDA's Office of Pharmaceutical Sciences (OPS), Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) and FDA legal counsel. ViroPharma appreciates the FDA's time and attention to this matter.
Consistent with the eventual availability of the slides presented by ViroPharma at the meeting in the FDA Docket for ViroPharma's petition on this matter, ViroPharma has posted these slides to its corporate website (http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/).
Additionally, the company notes that the FDA's website docket at times experiences a delay in making Citizens Petition and supplement submissions available for public review through the internet. In the interest of transparency, ViroPharma also has posted to its website the following supplement submissions previously filed by ViroPharma, but which are not yet available on the FDA's website:
-- December 2007 Docket submission by ViroPharma detailing how ViroPharma
believes the OGD's actions regarding Vancocin are illustrative of
larger systemic problems at the OGD, and amending the company's
petition to request that the FDA take appropriate additional corrective
actions;
-- August 2007 Docket submission by ViroPharma providing comments on the
FDA's Draft Guidance for Industry on Bioequivalence Recommendations for
Specific Products; and
-- May 2007 Docket submission by ViroPharma discussing the bioequivalence
issue in more detail and clarifying the types of testing ViroPharma
believes are required to demonstrate bioequivalence and to provide an
adequate basis for determining whether a BCS-based biowaiver to
establish bioequivalence for Vancocin results in an acceptable level of
risk to patients and public health.
ViroPharma remains committed to assuring the safety of patients suffering from C. difficile infection and continues to oppose vigorously any bioequivalence approach considered for use in approving generic formulations of Vancocin that does not require rigorous scientific methods developed through public process to demonstrate bioequivalence. The company is committed to ensuring safety and efficacy of the drug consistent with good medicine, science, and the law.
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea. Without proper treatment, the associated complications of the disease can be deadly. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there are an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 CA-CDAD and HA-CDAD cases annually based on 2004 data.
VPHM and DNDN related long research article:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/print.html?path=HL0801/S00062.htm
VPHM part:
Another case of leaking occurred on March 1, 2006, when the FDA sent a letter to the Canadian investment firm, Infinium Capital, that said the agency would allow testing for a generic version of Vancocin, marketed by ViroPharma, to be conducted in a test tube.
Two weeks later, after allowing plenty of time for persons with the inside information to position themselves to make a killing in the stock market, Infinium issued a report on ViroPharma stating, "Generics . . . sooner than you think".
According to an SEC filing by ViroPharma, Infinium's report was the first public disclosure of the new testing standard and:
"ViroPharma itself had not previously heard that OGD had lowered its BE standard for Vancocin. Nor it would seem, except those to whom OGD had privately communicated, had anyone else."
ViroPharma's filing went on to note that Infinium's report stated:
""Our recent communications with the FDA regarding the approval process for a potential generic competitor to Vancocin lead us to believe a generic could enter the market 1-2 years sooner than current expectations."
What ""recent communications with FDA" might mean, the filing states, beyond the March 1, 2006 letter to Infinium, is unclear to ViroPharma. On March 16, 2006, Medindia.com dropped a bombshell when it informed the public of the news by quoting analysts at Infinium as saying it could mean a generic version would be available by early 2008.
"Previously, generic manufacturers may not have been interested in developing this therapeutic due to its low revenue potential; however, with the recent sales growth of 133 percent in 2005, Vancocin is now on the radar screen," an Infinium analyst told Medindia.
Infinium's announcement caused shares of ViroPharma "to dip by about 33 percent," according to Medindia. But in fact, Infinium's report triggered a multi-day stock sell-off that cut the company's market capitalization by 40%, or roughly $500,000,000.
The approval process prior to the FDA's unexpected announcement required trials to be conducted on humans. ViroPharma has filed a Petition to stop the approval of generic versions with allegations that the FDA violated the Freedom of Information Act, the Data Quality Act, the Administrative Procedure Act, and its own Standards of Conduct.
Vancocin is used to treat hospital-acquired bacterial infections in the lower gastrointestinal tract caused by the bacterium Clostridium difficile. In order to be effective, the drug must be released in one specific section of the intestines, making its release mechanism far more difficult to replicate than other drugs.
The release of an ineffective version of Vancocin at this point in time would be especially dangerous because recent studies have shown that cases of Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD) are increasing world-world. The disease causes 400,000 cases of diarrhea and colitis each year in the US, according to the US Department of Veterans Affairs.
In addition, a paper by Michel Warney, et al., entitled, "Toxin Production by an Emerging Strain of Clostridium difficile Associated with Outbreaks of Severe Disease in North America and Europe," in the September 2005 Lancet medical journal, reported a new strain of C difficile that produces up to 23 times more toxins than previous strains; this strain has been implicated as the cause of a more severe form of the disease
A May 11, 2007, report by the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council said that in 2005, patients with CDAD were hospitalized 2-and-a-half times longer, charged over twice as much, and were 4 times as likely to die as patients without the disease.
On average, the report notes, patients with CDAD remain in the hospital almost 7 days longer at a cost of $73,576, verses the average charge of $30,833 for patients without the disease. A November 2007 report entitled, "The Emerging Infectious Challenge of Clostridium difficile-Associated Disease in Massachusetts Hospitals: Clinical and Economic Consequences," cites a "conservative estimate" of the annual cost for CDAD management in the US as $3.2 billion.
People treated with antibiotics are at the highest risk because antibiotics disrupt the balance of bacteria in the GI tract, which allows C difficile bacteria to multiply. CDAD is highly infectious and can spread by contact with patients or touching surfaces contaminated with C difficile spores. The severity of the disease ranges from mild cases of diarrhea to painful colitis, bloodstream infections or death.
Years ago, CDAD was almost exclusively limited to patients in hospital or long-term care settings where infectious diseases spread easily. But there are now widespread reports of patients developing CDAD outside hospital settings, referred to as "community-acquired" CDAD, and with no antibiotic exposure.
Recent studies indicate that many cases may be caused by proton pump inhibitor drugs which inhibit the production of gastric acid in the stomach that acts as a defense against bacteria and spores, widely used by persons with ulcers and other GI illnesses.
The December 21, 2005, Journal of American Medical Association published a report by Canadian researchers based on studies that determined that gastric acid-suppressant drugs were associated with the rising cases of community-acquired CDAD.
The researchers used the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database and identified all 1,672 cases of CDAD recorded between 1994 and 2004 and found that 1,233, or 74%, of the patients had not been hospitalized in the year prior to the diagnosis and were considered community-acquired.
The study showed the increase in community-acquired cases rose from less than 1 per 100,000 in 1994 to 22 per 100,000 in 2004 and during this same period, prescriptions for antibiotics had decreased while prescriptions for proton pump inhibitors had increased.
The first course of treatment for CDAD caused by antibiotics is to stop the antibiotics. But if diarrhea continues and becomes severe, Vancocin is a treatment of last resort for very sick patients which means there is no room for error.
The FDA claims that dissolution testing for the generic version can be done by creating a test tube solution that replicates the environment in the lower intestine. But experts say it would be next to impossible to replicate the GI tracts of very ill and elderly patients to determine whether the generic version will work the same in the targeted area.
Experts also point out that drug interactions, such as those in patients on proton pump inhibitors would make it hard to develop a solution that would replicate the GI tract.
The approval of an ineffective generic version of Vancocin, will subject millions of people to potentially fatal risks because the patients who end up being treated with this medication will have no second chances if it fails.
The FDA is currently under attack for doing the exact same thing by not requiring adequate testing for the generic version of the antidepressant Wellbutrin. The FDA approved the generic in 2006 and after a steady stream of patients reported that they were experiencing serious side effects, testing by ConsumerLabs, revealed that the time release rate of the active ingredient was much faster than the release rate in the original drug.
The consumer-product testing group, ConsumerLab began investigating the drug after Joe and Terry Graedon, authors of The People's Pharmacy column, came to the group with complaints received from readers of their column. While the Graedons had received complaints about generic drugs before, "we had never received this volume of response," Joe Graedon, a pharmacologist, told MSNBC on October 12, 2007.
"In almost all cases people were saying their depression returned," he said. Users also complained about severe headaches, digestive problems, insomnia, anxiety, and tremors.
ConsumerLab performed dissolution testing on 6 samples of each medication and found that even though both contained the same amount of the active ingredient, the generic released nearly 50% of the ingredient in the first 4 hours verses 25% by Wellbutrin.
"It's been an eye-opener for everyone," ConsumerLab President, Dr Tod Cooperman, told MSNBC. "It makes you question whether generics are always going to be equivalent to the original product."
"If these things are releasing at such different rates," he advised, ""it's hard to believe they'd be acting the same way in your body."
"It would seem very difficult to imagine that the results we saw would be acceptable results," Dr Cooperman told MSNBC.
He pointed out that the release of the active ingredient more quickly could mean there is less medication available to the patient later, and may explain why patients experienced a return of their depression.
He said a time-release problem might also explain why patients experienced more side effects, such as headache, irritability and nausea, if they received a high dose of the medicine upfront. "Too much Wellbutrin can cause side effects, even the potential for seizure," he told MSNBC.
The Canadian firm Biovial filed a petition with the FDA in 2005, asking the agency to require generic makers to conduct more rigorous testing of generic versions of Wellbutrin prior to their approval but apparently the agency ignored the request.
An agency spokesperson told MSNBC that the FDA does not require generic makers to do clinical trials on hundreds or thousands of people as required for name brand drugs. It only requires lab data and "bioequivalence" testing in about 24 to 36 healthy volunteers showing that the drug enters the bloodstream in a similar manner to the original product.
Since the generic version was approved, millions of consumers have switched to the drug to save money which means a high number of patients may be experiencing serious side effects without knowledge of the cause. Experts say this whole problem could have been avoided had testing on humans been conducted to check the release mechanism before millions of scripts were written.
"Sustained release mechanisms are not that easy to develop, and they tend to be proprietary in nature," Michael Katz, clinical associate professor of pharmacy practice and science at the University of Arizona College of Pharmacy told MSNBC.
"It would be difficult for a generic manufacturer to reproduce the same release characteristics as the brand-name product," he stated.
"Such differences clearly could have an impact on patients," he said, "and my view is that sustained-release products are among the relatively short list of products that should not be switched."
Experts say the time release characteristics would be even more difficult to replicate in a generic version of Vancocin, where the concern is not just about how much of the drug is released into the blood stream but rather in one specific section of the GI tract.
The leaking of information in the Vancocin case is reminiscent of a major scandal that erupted during the first Bush Administration in 1989, when FDA officials were charged with taking bribes from generic makers and sharing insider information. On August 28, 1989, Time magazine reported that an investigation by the Justice Department had uncovered evidence that "some makers of generic pharmaceuticals falsified laboratory test results and paid off FDA chemists to gain quick Government approval for their products."
In that case, Charles Chang the head of the FDA's generic division and two co-workers pleaded guilty to accepting a total of $24,300 in illegal gifts in exchange for preferential treatment for certain generic makers in July 1989, according to the Time report.
In the end, the generic scandal during the first Bush Administration landed Mr Chang in federal prison and caused 42 others and 10 companies to be convicted on charges of fraud and corruption and the FDA Commissioner Frank Young resigned in November 1989.
The crooks in the current Bush Administration's FDA deserve the same fate.
ViroPharma Provides 2008 Outlook
2008 Focus on Pipeline Advancement; CAMVIA Momentum Building Toward 2009 NDA
EXTON, Pa., Jan. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer, will provide an overview of the company's business and present a financial update during the 26th Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. As previously announced, this presentation will be webcast live at 2:00 P.M. Pacific Time on Wednesday, January 9, 2008 and may be accessed via the company's website at www.viropharma.com. The company expects to release full-year 2007 financial results and further discuss 2008 guidance later in the first quarter of 2008.
"We are in the midst of a period of great momentum and promise," said Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's Chief Executive Officer. "For example, we expect to build on the great clinical progress we are currently experiencing in our ongoing Phase 3 program with CAMVIA(TM)(maribavir) as we move toward our goal of a 2009 NDA filing. We also continue to work diligently in our pre-launch activities for CAMVIA to refine our plans for medical education, marketing and communications, and ensure a successful launch. We also are extremely excited about moving our unique non-toxigenic C. difficile (NTCD) program into humans during the year; we believe that this novel approach could one day be the therapy of choice for recurrent C. difficile infection (CDI), which remains a significant medical need in CDI patients. As a reminder, we along with Wyeth continue to work diligently to elucidate the path forward for our HCV program which we hope will reinvigorate it this year. And, of course, our strong balance sheet puts us in a position to evaluate and potentially execute upon acquisitions and in-licensing opportunities. Finally, we remain confident in our efforts to preserve safety for CDI patients and accordingly will be investing in both medical education for CDI and promoting Vancocin to drive growth for the product; Obviously, the decision on whether to approve generic versions of the drug on the basis of anything less than clinical endpoint bioequivalence studies for this serious disease ultimately rests with FDA."
"Looking back on 2007, ViroPharma saw a tremendous amount of momentum throughout our organization, in terms of financial performance and staffing for continued growth," commented Mr. de Rosen. "Organizationally, we launched ViroPharma Europe in the first half of 2007, and throughout the year nearly doubled overall the size of the global team supporting the development of CAMVIA and preparing for its commercial launch. Financially, I can confirm that we expect Vancocin(R) sales in 2007 to be within our guidance range of $202 to $208 million, representing growth of at least 21 percent over that of 2006."
Looking ahead in 2008ViroPharma is commenting upon future guidance for the year 2008 as a convenience to investors. The following elements of guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
- Net product sales are expected to be $210 to $235 million;
- Research and development (R&D) and sales, general and administrative
(SG&A) expenses are expected to be a combined $105 to $115 million.
- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be between $9 and $11
million. Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and
development (R&D) and selling, general and administrative (SG&A)
expenses are expected to be between $114 and $126 million.
This press release includes non-GAAP financial information as the our projected combined R&D and SG&A expenses has been presented including and excluding the effect of stock option expense resulting from the application of SFAS 123R. We believe that presenting our R&D expense and SG&A expense in this release both with and without the impact of share-based compensation will allow investors to better understand our financial results and how such results compare with our prior results and current guidance.
Further discussion of 2008 guidance will be provided along with the full- year 2007 financial results later in the first quarter of 2008.
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Bullish Events:
Close Above 13 Day EMA, Close Above 50 Day EMA, Percentage Gainer Trending Up
VPHM closed above its 13-day EMA on --. This signal tends to have bullish implications that the near-term trend of the stock is higher.
VPHM closed above its 50-day EMA on --. This signal tends to have bullish implications that the near-term trend of the stock is higher.
On --, VPHM was one of the biggest percentage gainers on the NASDAQ as it rallied by +0.68 or (+7.91%).
On --, the MACD swung to bullish when it closed above the signal line, a 9-period EMA of the MACD. This means that the underlying moving averages are converging and implies positive action for this stock's future trend.
insider buying:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5382922
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http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5382905
shorts update:
VPHM: Short Interest DN 2.9% to 9.8M at the End of Dec 2007
Thursday , January 10, 2008 16:52ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 2.9% to 9,782,224 shares as reported at month-end December, 2007. Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,213,670, it would require approximately 9 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
JP Morgan update:
JP Morgan Update: ViroPharma back on the Upside
January 10, 2008 · No Comments
At the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference yesterday, Michel de Rosen, CEO of Viropharma (NASDAQ:VPHM) presented a very attractive update on the company:
1. ViroPharma is advancing his late stage asset, Canvia for the treatment of Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections, toward a 2009 NDA. CMV infections are the most frequent illness in transplant patients. Other groups at risk include HIV/AIDS patients, certain oncology patients and neonates. Sales expectations for Canvia are in excess of $ 500 million.
2. ViroPharma has a strong Balance Sheet, with $552 million in cash, which supports an agressive Business Development strategy.
3. Vancomicin, which ViroPharma acquired from Eli Lilly in 2004 when sales were $54 million, continue to grow. The company gave guidance of $ 202-208 million Vancocin net sales for 2007 and $210-235 million for 2008. The new guidelines from the Infectious Disease Society of America (IDSA) support the leadership position of Vancocin in the treatemnt of Clostridium dificile infections (CDI).
Viropharma was up 7.9% yesterday to $9.28 a share. We believe that the company has been unfairly punished by investors in the past year. With a Market Cap of under $650 million, ViroPharma has definitely a very strong upside potential.
chart:
Seeking Alpha update:
Forecast for ViroPharma's Pipeline: Mostly Shiny
posted on: January 14, 2008 | about stocks: VPHM
ViroPharma (VPHM) had a big week with its stock climbing 20% after the company announced better-than-anticipated guidance for 2008 sales of its bacterial infection drug Vancocin. The company expects that 2007 sales of Vancocin were in the guided range of $202-208 million and that 2008 sales will fall in the range of $210-235 million. This guidance greatly out-paces what analysts were projecting. Consensus 2008 estimates had ViroPharma with $182 million in sales.
Analysts, for a couple of years now, have feared generic competition to Vancocin, which could eliminate 50% of the product's sales in the first year of an available generic. However, a generic form of Vancocin is not available yet, and it appears from ViroPharma's guidance that it does not feel one will be available this year.
However, that does not mean the threat of generic competition is gone. A generic form of Vancocin will be available at some point, and investors need to look beyond Vancocin to see if ViroPharma is a viable investment choice.
VPHM is a small ($700 million market cap), but highly profitable biotech. The company has a clean balance sheet; approximately $6 per share in cash and short-term investments; and has strong operating cash flows ($121 million in the trailing twelve months). These traits could give ViroPharma some room to seek acquisitions or partnerships. Or could make VPHM a strong buyout candidate.
For VPHM to be a buyout candidate, or for it to be a viable investment choice, we must look further and into the pipeline. ViroPharma currently has four projects that it or its partners are working on. However, I'm only accounting for one of those projects becoming financially viable at this point.
ViroPharma and Wyeth (WYE) decided to discontinue Phase II dosing for HCV-796, a Hepatitis C drug because of safety concerns in August. The companies continue to pursue ways to use the drug, but I'm not counting on anything. VPHM also has a compound that could treat C. difficile-associated disease [CDAD], but it has not moved into human trials yet.
Last, I'm not accounting for pleconaril, a nasal spray to treat the common cold, which is being developed by Schering-Plough (SGP). Pleconaril has been a part of ViroPharma since the 1990s. The company filed an NDA for an oral form of the drug in 2001, but it was rejected by the FDA. SGP licensed the drug in 2003, and has been working on the nasal form since. ViroPharma is due to potentially receive another $65 million from SGP, as well as royalties if the drug makes it to market. However, the clinical trial process has been slow. The drug is currently in Phase II. And when I looked on Clinicaltrials.gov, it showed that a Phase II trial had been completed, but neither company has said anything about it. I would be willing to think that data from that trial should be expected sometime soon, but I have no definite timetable for that announcement. So, until we do hear something from that trial, I'm not going to account for pleconaril in ViroPharma's future earnings.
With all that said, ViroPharma does have one very promising drug, that could earn more in peak sales than Vancocin. Camvia (maribavir) is in Phase III trials for the treatment of cytomegalovirus [CMV]. The company projects that a market is available for peak sales of $500 million. That would provide significant growth for VPHM. The company says it is on track for a 2009 NDA. Using my rNPV template, I feel that Camvia is worth $4.37 currently to the company. It would be worth around $8 to the company if Phase III trials are successful.
As I see it, there are two wildcards that are holding me back from calling ViroPharma a strong buy. First, what will happen with generic Vancocin. If the company can continue to get the FDA to hold back allowing a generic Vancocin, the drug should continue to grow its sales and I feel is worth at least $10 per share, which is slightly above the current trading price alone. However, if generic competition gets in as early as next year, I feel that Vancocin is only worth $5 going forward and the stock is probably fairly valued, at best.
The second wildcard that I'm looking at is pleconaril. If Schering gets this drug moving, it has the potential to be a blockbuster, and ViroPharma would reap those benefits. However, there is currently no telling if that will happen, and we'll just have to keep our eye out for news.
To conclude, I like ViroPharma. It is a good company, with a couple of good products. However, there is a lot of uncertainty here in 2008 and its long-term picture is a little blurry. My opinion is that this is a buy for the long-term, but I think a lot is riding on the Phase III trials of Camvia. Camvia should be able to replace Vancocin and keep the company growing for its shareholders. Although, this stock could really go places if the two wildcards fall into place for VPHM.
seeking alpha again:
ViroPharma Incorporated: More FDA Incompetence
posted on: January 18, 2008 | about stocks: VPHM
Hard on the heels of the corrupted approval process associated with Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge comes evidence of still more incompetence at the Federal agency responsible for this nation's healthcare. This time it's the Office of Generic Drugs [OGD] that has proposed a new way of testing candidate generic versions of the only drug—brand Vancocin—that has shown to be effective in the treatment of Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD, or C. difficile).
As noted by ViroPharma (VPHM), the manufacturer of Vancocin,
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea. Without proper treatment, the associated complications of the disease can be deadly.
What OGD did in early 2006 that is of concern to many in the health community is to propose that henceforth, it would use an in vitro ("in glass") method to test proposed generic versions of brand Vancocin, in contradiction to its earlier policy of using human subjects ("in vivo"). Importantly, OGD adopted this new policy without issuing the requisite public notice or providing an opportunity for comment.
Further, what seems to have eluded OGD is the fact that to be effective, any generic version of brand Vancocin must demonstrate release in one specific section of the intestines, something in vitro testing can not establish.
What is interesting about this issue, and what casts serious doubts on the integrity of OGD, is that it was not the FDA that made the announcement of this important change in testing procedure. It was a Canadian investment firm called Infinium Capital Corp. ("Infinium"). On March 16, 2006, according to a filing by ViroPharma with the SEC, Infinium issued a report on ViroPharma entitled "Generics . . . sooner than you think". In their filing, ViroPharma noted that the report stated that "Our recent communications with the FDA regarding the approval process for a potential generic competitor to Vancocin lead us to believe a generic could enter the market 1-2 years sooner than current expectations."
This report was released two weeks after OGD's March 1, 2006, letter to Infinium! This was the first public disclosure of the new testing policy, and the impact on ViroPharma's share price was immediate and devastating: the release of Infinium's report triggered a multi-day sell-off of ViroPharma's stock that cut the company's market capitalization by 40%, or some $500,000,000.
To date, there has been no indication that the SEC, HHS, FDA Ethics, or the GAO even has investigated the matter regarding how information on the change in OGD policy was released to the public and on the stock market consequences therefrom.At no time was information related to the new proposed testing policy for candidate versions of brand Vancocin made available to ViroPharma.
Even more curious is the fact that ViroPharma has been unable to acquire the administrative record (including written correspondence and telephone records) of OGD's decision through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request submitted in March, 2006.
According to ViroPharma, in their protest of the FDA's handling of this matter:
OGD treated similarly situated parties differently by selectively disclosing material information to, and thereby conferring a material informational advantage on, a very few potential market participants to the detriment of all others, including ViroPharma.
At this writing, OGD has issued no data or rationale they believe would support the new in vitro testing method. Nor has OGD shown any intent to disclose what they are proposing. If it had not been for the report issued by a Canadian stock analyst, the public still would be in the dark about OGD's misguided plan. More importantly, if in vitro testing for generic versions of brand Vancocin is not shown to be effective, the approval of ineffective versions of generic Vancocin would be a deadly serious mistake. Recent studies have shown that cases of CDAD are increasing world-world. Today, according to the US Department of Veterans Affairs, the disease causes 400,000 cases of diarrhea and colitis each year in the US.All of which begs the question: What was OGD thinking? Even more to the point: Were they thinking?
VPHM: Short Interest DN 4.5% to 11.5M at the End of Jan 2008
Monday , February 11, 2008 16:23ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 4.5% to 11,517,625 shares as reported at month-end January, 2008. Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,276,765, it would require approximately 10 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
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No Bonuses for Akorn Execs - Couldn't deliver
On February 8, 2008, the Compensation Committee (the "Committee") of Akorn, Inc.
(the "Company"), resolved not to pay any cash bonuses to Mr. Arthur S. Przybyl, the
Company's President and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Jeffrey A. Whitnell, the Company's
Chief Financial Officer; Dr. Abu S. Alam, the Company's Senior Vice President, New Business and
Product Development; Mr. John R. Sabat, the Company's Senior Vice President, National
Accounts; or Mr. Mark Silverberg, Senior Vice President, Global Quality Assurance (each of
the foregoing individuals, an "Executive Officer") pursuant to the management bonus objectives
for 2007, which were described in and filed with the Company's Current Report on Form 8-K
filed on April 23, 2007.
Will Akorn give up on generic vancomycin?
Akorn, Inc. today announced that Arthur S. Przybyl,
president and chief executive officer, will be presenting at the Credit Suisse Specialty Pharmaceuticals "Up & Comers Day" Health Care Conference. The presentation is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, February 28, 2008 at the Credit Suisse office located New York City.
Chart:
here is Zack's VPHM's screen print
fyi:
Vincent J. Milano to Succeed Michel de Rosen as President and Chief Executive Officer of ViroPharma
Tuesday February 26, 4:30 pm ET
- Michel de Rosen to Continue as Chairman of the Board of Directors; Daniel B. Soland Promoted to Chief Operating Officer -
EXTON, Pa., Feb. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) announced today that, effective March 31, 2008, Vincent J. Milano will succeed Michel de Rosen as president and chief executive officer of the company and has been elected to its board of directors. Mr. de Rosen, who has led the company as president and chief executive officer since 2000, will continue as non-executive Chairman of the Board of Directors. Additionally, Daniel B. Soland will become chief operating officer, also effective March 31, 2008.
"Vinnie joined our company in 1996. We have worked together for eight years, so I know him very well; we have shared great successes and lived through significant challenges together," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "The attributes we want from a chief executive officer include a sense of strategic direction and vision, demonstrated integrity, and strong leadership skills. In our time together, Vinnie has demonstrated these characteristics time and time again at a very high level. I am convinced he will be a great chief executive officer and that, under his leadership, our company will go to the next level and then even higher. I obviously remain deeply committed to the future success of ViroPharma. I am returning to France to be closer to my family and become the chief executive officer of a private company. I will continue as Chairman of the Board of ViroPharma and will continue to work with Vinnie on matters of strategic importance to the company."
De Rosen continued, "I am also delighted to announce that Dan Soland has been promoted to chief operating officer from his previous post as chief commercial officer. Since joining the company in 2006, Dan has been at the helm of our commercial organization, and our ongoing strategic endeavors to prepare for the launch of Camvia(TM) (maribavir), grow Vancocin®, and expand into Europe. Dan's operational expertise in manufacturing, commercial, and global market development, his strong business acumen, and remarkable common sense make him the ideal person for the position of chief operating officer of our company."
"One of the fundamental values Vinnie and Dan share is their customer focus. They know that the reason we exist is to serve our customers, the patients and physicians," concluded de Rosen.
"I have enjoyed my first 12 years as a member of the ViroPharma team, and I look forward to leading ViroPharma through its next stages of success," commented Vincent Milano. "I firmly believe in the value of our pipeline products and Vancocin for patients. Michel has been a great leader for our company during his tenure as well as a great mentor and friend to me. The many successes we have had during the past eight years are a direct result of his leadership and passion. On behalf of the ViroPharma team, I want to thank Michel for his dedication, tireless work, creativity, and contribution to the ViroPharma culture."
Mr. Milano joined the company in 1996. Since 2006, he has served as vice president, chief financial officer and chief operating officer. Mr. Milano has been instrumental in building ViroPharma, including leading efforts in raising nearly $900 million in capital and the acquisitions of Camvia from GlaxoSmithKline, and Vancocin® from Eli Lilly and Company. He has played a critical role in all business development and investor relations activities of the company, and has contributed significantly to establishing the strategic direction of the company. Prior to joining ViroPharma, he was with KPMG LLP, independent certified public accountants. Mr. Milano received his bachelor of science degree in accounting from Rider College.
Mr. Soland joined ViroPharma in 2006 as vice president and chief commercial officer from his previous job as president of Chiron Vaccines. At Chiron, Mr. Soland was responsible for managing the vaccine division to annual sales of $1 billion. Prior to Chiron, he was the president and chief executive officer of Epigenesis Pharmaceuticals, a privately held biopharmaceutical company. He previously spent nine years with GlaxoSmithKline as the vice president and director of worldwide marketing operations, and five years as their vice president and director of the U.S. vaccines business unit. Mr. Soland holds a bachelor of science degree in pharmacy from the University of Iowa, in Iowa City, IA.
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Financial Results
EXTON, Pa., Feb. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) reported today its financial results for the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2007.
Key events since September 30, 2007 include:
Development:
-- European Orphan Drug Designation received for Camvia(TM) (maribavir);
-- Patient enrollment continued in both phase 3 studies of Camvia in stem
cell and solid organ transplant patients;
-- Prelaunch activities for Camvia accelerated including new medical
affairs and PR initiatives in preparation for the planned 2009 NDA and
MAA filings;
-- Monitoring and follow-up of patients who received HCV-796 in ongoing
phase 2 study continued; evaluation of potential benefits versus risks
to patients is ongoing to understand if and how further clinical
studies are appropriate; and
-- Work continued to optimize manufacturing and scale up for non-toxigenic
C. difficile (NTCD) project in preparation for human clinical trials.
Operational:
-- Net sales of Vancocin(R) were $48 million;
-- Launched new sales and marketing initiatives for Vancocin; and
-- Research and development expenses increased by 305 percent over the
fourth quarter of 2006, primarily driven by investments in Camvia, NTCD
and increased personnel to support clinical momentum.
Financial Results
-- Operating income was $19 million;
-- Increased working capital by $21 million to $594 million;
-- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew by $32 million
to $584 million; and
-- 12th consecutive quarter of positive cash flow and profitability
achieved.
Financial Highlights
Net sales of Vancocin(R) were $47.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2007 and $203.8 million for the twelve months of 2007 as compared to $38.5 million and $166.6 million in the respective 2006 periods.
Investment in our product pipeline and the Company continued to grow as research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) expenses were $25.2 million and $72.9 million for the fourth quarter and twelve months of 2007, respectively compared to $10.2 million and $43.7 million for the fourth quarter and twelve months of 2006, respectively. These increases were due primarily to our two phase three studies for Camvia and increased personnel to support our clinical pipeline, along with increased marketing, general and administrative expense due to increases in medical education, share-based compensation and legal and consulting costs.
Operating income in the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2007 was $19.0 million and $115.8 million, respectively, compared to $25.1 million and $98.8 million in the fourth quarter and twelve months of 2006, respectively. Operating income in the fourth quarter decreased primarily due to higher R&D and MG&A costs discussed above partially offset by the higher net sales. Operating income for the twelve months of 2007 increased due to higher net sales and lower cost of sales, partially offset by the increase in R&D and MG&A expenses.
"2007 represented a period of strong momentum for ViroPharma - clinical momentum, organizational momentum, and operational momentum - as we continue to be driven by our commitment to bring essential therapies to patients with few, if any, treatment options," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "Our 2007 clinical efforts were primarily driven by Camvia, which was granted Orphan Drug designation in both the U.S. and E.U. and gained global momentum through our pivotal phase 3 program as we head toward the anticipated filing of our initial NDA and MAA filings next year. As we enter 2008, we also have stronger teams in place to reach our development goals and generate future growth, both here in the U.S. and in the E.U. We will appropriately spend more in 2008 compared to 2007, which is, reflected in our expense guidance for 2008. This is consistent with our expectations and goal to ultimately deliver important, novel therapeutics to patients and physicians."
de Rosen continued, "Also, 2007 was another year of strong Vancocin performance; we achieved net product sales of $204 million, representing growth of 22 percent over that of 2006. We anticipate that our new marketing initiatives will help us garner additional growth in 2008 and beyond, potentially offsetting a slow down in the incidence rate of C. difficile infection (CDI). At ViroPharma, we take our commitment to the safety of patients with CDI very seriously. Through our efforts during the year, physicians were better educated to identify patients at high risk of disease, hospitals are better equipped to control CDI, and patients at risk of severe and complicated disease were assured of a proven safe and effective treatment. Importantly, though, our efforts in CDI are also focused on future treatment alternatives: we made progress toward a potential future treatment for disease recurrence, called NTCD, which we expect to enter the clinic this year."
Net income in the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2007 was $20.4 million and $95.4 million, respectively, compared to net income of $18.0 million and $66.7 million for the same periods in 2006. Net income per share for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 was $0.29 per share, basic and $0.25 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.26 per share, basic, and $0.25 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2006. Net income per share for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007 was $1.37 per share, basic, and $1.21 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.97 per share, basic, and $0.95 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2006.
The primary drivers of the change in net income for the fourth quarter were the effects of decreased operating income discussed above, partially offset by increased interest income and a lower effective tax rate. Net income for the twelve month period increased primarily due to higher net sales and higher interest income, partially offset by increased operating expenses.
Operating Highlights
During the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2007, net sales of Vancocin increased 24.0 percent and 22.3 percent, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2006. The three and twelve month increases resulted from an increase of units sold, the impact of a price increase during 2007 and wholesaler inventory levels which were stable in 2007 compared to decreased levels in 2006.
The cost of sales for Vancocin for the three months ended December 31, 2007 remained consistent from the three months ended December 31, 2006 at $2.0 million. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, the cost of sales decreased $10.1 million to $8.9 million from $19.0 million in the same period in 2006. This decrease primarily results from the sale of units during the first half of 2007, which were manufactured by NPI Pharmaceuticals (formerly OSG Norwich) and carried a lower inventory cost than the units sold during the first half of 2006 that were manufactured by Eli Lilly & Co.
The total remaining costs and expenses associated with operating income were $26.6 million and $11.5 million, for the fourth quarter of 2007 and 2006, respectively, and $79.0 million and $49.4 million, for the twelve months of 2007 and 2006, respectively. These increases are primarily due to research and development costs, increased medical education and legal costs as well as an increase in stock compensation expense.
The Company's effective income tax rate was 18.0 percent and 39.9 percent for the quarters ended December 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively, and 29.7 percent and 38.6 percent for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007 and 2006, respectively. Income tax expense includes federal, state and foreign income tax at statutory rates and the effects of various permanent differences. The decrease in both the quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2007 effect income tax rate as compared to the comparative periods in 2006 is primarily due to our current estimate of the impact of orphan drug credit for Camvia as well as a $4.0 million benefit for the valuation allowance reduction primarily related to additionally deferred tax assets that management believes are more likely than not to be utilized. Our income tax expense for the years ended December 31, 2007 and 2006 also includes the impact of finalizing the federal and state tax provisions for 2006 and 2005, respectively. We currently anticipate an effective tax rate in the range of approximately 27 percent to 31 percent for the year ended December 31, 2008, which includes an estimate related to orphan drug credit based upon estimates of qualified expenses and excludes the impact of discreet items and any potential changes in the valuation allowance. We continue to evaluate our qualified expenses and, to the extent that actual qualified expenses vary significantly from our estimates, our effective tax rate will be impacted.
Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of December 31, 2007 exceeded the maximum milestone threshold of $65.0 million. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $6.0 million to intangible assets in June 2007, which was paid to Lilly in the third quarter.
Working Capital Highlights
As of December 31, 2007, ViroPharma's working capital was $594.4 million, which represents a $328.0 million increase from December 31, 2006, $21.1 million of which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2007. The twelve month increase is primarily the result of the net proceeds from an offering of senior convertible notes issued on March 26, 2007 and cash flows.
Looking ahead in 2008
ViroPharma is commenting upon previously announced guidance for the year 2008 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
For the year 2008, ViroPharma expects the following
-- Net product sales are expected to be $210 to $235 million;
-- Research and development (R&D) and sales, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be $105 to $115 million.
-- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be in the range of $9 to $11 million. Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and development (R&D) and sales, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to be $114 to $126 million.
Great Price on ViroPharma Shares
Wednesday February 27, 4:34 pm ET
By Jason Napodano, CFA
ViroPharma, Inc.'s (NasdaqGS: VPHM - News) stock has been in a sideways trend for the past several months. And, although we are maintaining our Buy rating on the stock, we continue to see little movement until an update on a potential generic Vancocin product.
Management continues to petition the FDA to delay a generic entrant, most recently submitting views on the in-vitro dissolution bioequivalence testing methods. Approval of a generic product at Strides/Akorn at any time could create volatility in the stock.
At this level, ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $221.5 million yields a price to sales ratio of 2.9x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.95 (including option expense). The price to earnings ratio of 9.9x is so far below the peer group, we can't help but wonder whether a company like GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK - News), Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY - News) or Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - News) would be interested in acquiring ViroPharma.
ViroPharma's stock sank in March 2006 on fears of generic Vancocin. Since that time, the company has continued to deliver solid results and progressed with Camvia to the point where we now include it in our long-term model. We think the candidate offers a significant growth opportunity over the long-term.
We think the market is too focused on the generic risk to Vancocin. We see the Citizen's Petition as solid, and the recently initiated exploratory study to characterize the GI track of healthy vs. infected patients will only help add to the scientific validity of management's claim. The two letters made public outlining the legal and scientific merits for a judgment stay are rather convincing in our view.
interesting price action in a weak market !
VPHM: Jumps +4.20%; Vol +179%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , March 04, 2008 16:22ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $9.16 $9.55 +4.20%
VOLUME 1,018,479 2,838,894 +178.74%
#TRADES 5,404 9,799 +81.33%
DAY-HI $9.42 $9.55 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $9.06 $9.06 N/A
VPHM: Short Interest DN 1.5% to 12.1M at the End of Feb 2008
Tuesday , March 11, 2008 16:28ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 1.5% to 12,134,138 shares as reported at month-end February, 2008. Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,409,620, it would require approximately 9 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
&
AKORN update:
Just listened to cc.
Art cannot guide Vanco approval date now.Previous guidance was based on expedited review and no impact of Citizens Petition. He actually bad mouthed OGD's Gary Buehler for not getting the review done and being too slow. That should be worth another 12-month delay. It looks like they filed ANDA around April
2007 just as I expected and they estimated a 9-mo approval. Usual ANDA approvals are about 18-months but this one won't be decided any time soon. It is obvious he has no inside info from FDA as VPHM appears to be more in front of the issue, especially with their 2008 guidance.
&
From prepared remarks:
....We advanced our hospital business opportunities in 2007 in several
ways.
First and foremost and one of two main revenue opportunities for our
hospital segment in 2008 is our relentless pursuit of a safe,
effective and affordable generic oral vancomycin product.
In 2007 a major milestone in our joint development and marketing
partnership with Cipla for vancomycin was the filing of the ANDA
early in the second quarter of 2007.
Our ANDA is not yet a year old.
In addition, we were granted an expedited review for this ANDA . And
our ANDA clearly demonstrates equivalencyto the referece listed
drug.based on published FDA guidance and our C?C and stability
results.
Based on these facts I guided to a year end ANDA approval for
Vancomycin.
Unfortunately, and to the detriment of the US healthcare consumer, I
was wrong.
The market opportunity for a safe effective generic version of oral
vancomycin remains robust. The monopoly continues to exist where no
patent does. And the market opportunity continues to grow, now at
$225-mil. Primarily generated from price increases.
We remain resolute in our pursuit of a safe and effective and
affordable generic version of oral vancomycin and expect our generic
approval to contribute to our revenue base in 2008.......
From Q and A:
"Scott Hirsch(CSFB): Hi there guys, a few questions. With repect
to Vanco, I just wanted to follow up on the manufacturing. Has Cipla
fully manufactured this, have you guys brought it into the country at
all or is it still not here?
Art: Cipla has validated the manufacturing process for the drug.
The product will be shipped to the United States shortly, under
quarantine conditions....."
Jason ? from Jarda? Equities: Good Afternoon. Guys, I was hoping
you could provide up with a little more clarity around generic
vancocin. Can you give us some idea what the OGD is telling you as
to why we didn't get the approval last year and what makes you think
that we will get it this year? I mean are we hearing from them that
we are going to get it and, if so, what changed from last year to
this year.
Art: Without going into a lot of detail, my persepective is that
the citizen's petition is holding up the ANDA approval. The
citizen's petition was vetted in March of 2005 and quite frankly I
think Gary Buehler and the folks over at FDA need to get a move on.
Jason: Now when you guided last year I know that you got fast track
on the ANDA. Was it solely that that led you to give guidance that
you would get approval last year or is it discussions? We are just
trying to figure out how certain that this will come out this year.
Art: Long silence. Well I can't answer in regards to pinning down
an approval time with certainty as you can probably guess. I think
you understand why I guided where I did from my opening remarks. It
was based on the expedited review and the fact that based on the
dating when we submitted our ANDA. Typically and ANDA takes 18-
months. I felt that the citizens petition was placed in March
of '05 and, to be quite blunt, I felt the FDA should have completed
their work by the end of the year. No question about it. And,
unfortunately, that was not the case.
Jason: So it was not really that you had been mislead by the OGD.
It is really based more on your own assumptions.
Art: It was clearly based on my own assumption and that is why I
said I was wrong, and I think that, you know I've guided in FDA
events in the past. I guided to compliancy back in '05 I believe.
And in December I guided ........."
THIS is very positive for VPHM
[/b]
chart:
VPHM: JMP Sec Starts @ Mkt Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $12; Analyst Notes
Friday , March 14, 2008 07:35ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: JMP Securities
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Mkt Outperform
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $12.00
Analyst Comments: The firm believes VPHM's valuation reflects several negative scenarios and notes that earnings will likely remain positive and that the company has a strong balance sheet.
GS update:
Feb 28, 2008 ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM): Q42007 beat on expenses, but building value step by step
WHAT'S CHANGED: ViroPharma reported Q42007 Vancocin sales of $47.7 million
and EPS of $0.25, vs. our estimates of Vancocin sales of $50.9 million and EPS of
$0.18. ViroPharma beat the quarter on slightly lower operating expenses, higher
interest income and a lower tax rate than we had forecast. The consensus revenue and
EPS estimates were $50.4 million and $0.20. The company reiterated 2008 guidance,
with expected Vancocin sales of between $210-$235 million, R&D and SGA expenses
of $105-$115 million (ex ESO) and SFAS 123R impact of $9-$11 million. The
company announced yesterday that effective 3-31-08, Vincent Milano, the current CFO
and COO, will succeed Michel de Rosen as President and Chief Executive Officer.
IMPLICATIONS: Based on Q4 trends and our 2008 outlook, we have adjusted our
2008 and 2009 EPS estimates to $0.85 and $0.35 from $0.50 and $0.20 respectively.
While our model had previously assumed generic entry in 2008, we now assume this
occurs in 2009. We also introduce 2010 EPS estimate of $0.25. We expect 2010 to be a
transition year, with potential introduction of Camvia.
VALUATION: We maintain our 12-month target of $17, based on an NPV assessment
of Vancocin sales (assuming 2009 generic entry, which could be conservative) and the
pipeline. ViroPharma shares may remain somewhat range-bound until concerns about
potential generic entry are resolved (timing not predictable) and/or until we get closer
to potential Camvia data (2009 timeframe by our estimates). We believe that there is
longer term stock upside from pipeline progress and/or from generic Vancocin delays,
but short term downside if generics are approved in 2008.
VPHM: Short Interest UP 11.5% to 13.5M in Mid Mar 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008 16:26ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 11.5% to 13,533,920 shares as reported in mid-March, 2008.
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,710,265, it would require approximately 8 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
still holding...
Cowen presentation 18th of March 2008 part 1
Cowen presentation 18th of March 2008 part 2
Cowen presentation 18th of March 2008 final part
still invested 8)
Viropharma's Camvia may change current treatment paradigm in stem cell transplant market
By Kimberly Ha in New York
Published: April 2 2008 16:53 | Last updated: April 2 2008 16:53
This article is provided to FT.com readers by Pharmawire—a news service focused on providing insight into the most price sensitive issues in the global pharmaceutical market. www.pharmawire.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ViroPharma's Phase III drug Camvia (maribavir) for the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease may change the current treatment paradigm in the stem cell transplant market from preemptive therapy to prophylaxis, physicians told Pharmawire.
CMV is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in transplantation patients. Both prophylaxis and preemptive therapy are used to prevent the development of CMV infection after transplantation.
Controversy exists over which method, prophylactic or preemptive therapy, is the optimal strategy to adopt for the prevention of CMV disease. With the prophylaxis approach, antivirals are administered to all patients for a period of usually three months after transplantation. The preemptive approach exposes the least number of patients to the toxic effects of antiviral agents, which is also costly, but requires more frequent patient monitoring.
Although current literature suggests the prophylactic method is more advantageous, many physicians have been hesitant to adopt this therapy due to the toxicity profile of currently approved drugs. As Viropharma's Camvia shows no myelosuppression and less toxicity
compared with current ganciclovir-based treatments, it may effectively increase the current market size for CMV drugs since more patients can receive preventative, or prophylactic treatment due to the better risk-benefit ratio.
Dr Stephen Berger, Director of Geographic Medicine and of Clinical Microbiology at Tel Aviv Medical Center, said the current standard of care, oral ganciclovir is quite toxic, and has 41 toxicities and 14 drug to drug interactions. In addition to myelosuppression, other
side-effects include hair-loss and anemia.
The therapeutic effectiveness of current drugs on the market such as Roche's Valcyte (an oral version of ganciclovir) and ganciclovir itself are also compromised by the emergence of drug-resistance. Camvia is also effective against ganciclovir-resistant strains of
CMV. Dr Drew Winston, an investigator at UCLA Medical Center, said Camvia can reduce the incidence of CMV infection and, unlike the current drug ganciclovir, it does not cause myelosuppression. "The reason why ganciclovir in prophylaxis hasn't been used in stem cell treatment is because of the drug's effect on myelosuppression. However, preemptive
therapy with ganciclovir was effective.
"Camvia will represent major advancement to preventing CMV in stem cell transplant patients, if Phase III trials confirm efficacy," said Winston.
Dr Colin Broom, Vice President and Chief Scientific Officer at Viropharma, said with the current market size it is estimated to be USD 500m-600m, but under the current treatment paradigm - only patients who are at very high risk for CMV receive prophylactic treatment, due to the toxicity profile of currently marketed drugs.
"Hopefully, the current treatment paradigm will change from one where you use as little treatment as possible, to one where you will prophylax all patients," said Broom. Out of the 100,000 annual transplants, less than 20% of the current patient population gets prophylaxis treatment, he estimated. Every patient could potentially receive Camvia for three months in terms of preventative treatment. Viropharma is looking to change the treatment paradigm, to get physicians to use Camvia in first-line prophylaxis therapy. Although Valcyte is a good drug, there are always worries about toxicities, Broom added.
Dr Don Diamond, director of the Laboratory of Vaccine Research at City of Hope National Medical Center in California, said Camvia might have some positive effect, but the problem is you have an immature immune response in transplant patients.
Although oral ganciclovir is not as effective as the IV form, it does not make sense to replicate the problems with IV administration due to the central venous catheter. "As an oral drug, you can also give it in the outpatient setting," said Diamond.
However, Diamond believed that Camvia has the same problems as ganciclovir, as it also involves a chemotherapy approach at disabling the virus replication via immune response suppression. "You have to stop giving these drugs because otherwise people get resistance. But once you stop, the CMV becomes active again," said Diamond. Patients may face the problem of late CMV infection after discontinuing prophylaxis treatment.
Another criticism of Viropharma's trial is there is no data comparing Camvia against the current standard of care, which is Roche's Valcyte (valganciclovir).
ViroPharma also chose to compare Camvia against oral ganciclovir - not the more effective IV ganciclovir formulation. When asked whether oral drugs show less efficacy than IV formulations, Winston countered that the bio-availability of oral Camvia is much better than oral ganciclovir. Camvia may also be available in IV form in the future, he added.
The Phase III stem-cell transplant trial has recruited over 300 patients. A total of over 600 patients are needed for the stem-cell transplant study, said Winston. Enrollment for this trial is expected to be completed by mid-year.
"All the patients in this study have to be followed for 6 months, so final data will be available sometime in early 2009," said Winston. The liver transplant study is enrolling at a slower rate, since enrollment started later. In the liver transplant study, about 100 out of 300 patients have been enrolled. This study compares Camvia with oral ganciclovir, and when asked why Viropharma did not choose to test Camvia with Valcyte, Winston said at that time, Valcyte was not approved for use in liver transplant patients. "To satisfy FDA requirements, we had to compare Camvia to an approved drug," he said. The preliminary results clearly show that Camvia can be safe and effective for preventing CMV infection in stem cell transplant patients. "There has not been significant improvement in the ability to prevent CMV infection in stem cell transplants in the last 10 years," said Winston. Without any type of prophylaxis, more than 50% of stem cell transplant patients are infected with CMV. The drug inhibits viral encapsulation and prevents the virus from exiting the nucleus, which is a novel mechanism of action compared with currently approved drugs, which include Roche's ganciclovir and Valcyte.
Viropharma has a current market cap of USD 632m.
VPHM: Short Interest UP 3.4% to 14.0M at the End of Mar 2008
Wednesday, April 09, 2008 16:22ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 3.4% to 13,994,939 shares as reported at month-end March, 2008. Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,405,315, it would require approximately 10 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
&
JAGfn Rumors
Wednesday, April 09, 2008 05:51ET
Apr 9, 2008 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) -- (GENZ) (VPHM) Rumor that Genzyme Corporation(Nasdaqgs: Genz) will make a bid for VIROPHARMA INC COM (VPHM). Bid whispered to be cash in the $18 range.
chart:
short term bad news long term good.
price will go down tomorrow..
ViroPharma Announces Discontinuation of HCV-796 Development
Wednesday, April 16, 2008 18:01ET
EXTON, Pa., April 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) announced today that ViroPharma and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE), have jointly discontinued the development of HCV-796 due to the previously announced safety issue that emerged in the ongoing Phase 2 trial in patients with hepatitis C.
"Clearly, this is a disappointing outcome for patients suffering from this difficult disease," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "Significant activities were undertaken to determine a clear path forward for HCV-796; however, the risk associated with potential hepatotoxicity ultimately posed too high of a hurdle to merit further development."
The companies will ensure that patients enrolled in the ongoing Phase 2 study will continue to receive the current standard of care. ViroPharma also announced that ViroPharma and Wyeth do not expect to continue to collaborate on future development of hepatitis C treatment candidates.
chart:
Hi David,
a deeper VPHM analysis after the earnings on 30th of April would be highly appreciated!
tia
Oliver
1)
ViroPharma to Release 2008 First Quarter Financial Results on April 30, 2008
Monday , April 14, 2008 15:59ET
EXTON, Pa., April 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated's (Nasdaq: VPHM) first quarter financial results for 2008 are expected to be released on Wednesday, April 30, 2008 before the open of the U.S. financial markets.
The company will host a conference call and live audio webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day. During the conference call, ViroPharma management will discuss the 2008 first quarter financial results and other business.
The press release and the live webcast of the conference call will be accessible via ViroPharma's corporate website at http://www.viropharma.com. An audio archive will be available at the same address until May 14, 2008. To participate in the conference call, please dial (877) 366-0713 (domestic) and (302) 607-2000 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
2)
Potentially deadly intestinal infections double
Cases of Clostridium difficile spike in nation's hospitals, report shows
By JoNel Aleccia
Health writer
updated 4:10 p.m. ET April 23, 2008
Cases of potentially deadly diarrheal infections jumped by more than 200 percent in the nation's hospitals between 2000 and 2005, fueling new worries about the next bad bug.
Some 301,200 people contracted Clostridium difficile-associated disease — known as CDAD — in 2005, more than twice as many as previously counted, and 28,600 people died from the infection that year, according to a new report by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
That sharp spike follows a 74 percent increase in the number of CDAD cases recorded between 1993 and 2000. Overall, more than 2 million patients contracted the serious intestinal infection between 1993 and 2005, the report showed.
"It is the next major germ threat," said Betsy McCaughey, the former lieutenant governor of New York state who now heads the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths — RID — an agency that focuses on improving infection control in hospitals and health care settings.
The bacterium, commonly referred to as C. diff, is as worrisome as Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA, a drug-resistant infection linked to more than 94,000 infections and nearly 19,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2005, McCaughey said.
C. diff can cause infections that range from mild diarrhea to an often deadly illness that can be treated only by completely removing a patient's colon. It develops when the normal flora in the human gut is disturbed, typically by previous use of antimicrobial drugs, followed by exposure to the C. diff bacteria.
The infection frequently targets elderly people: two out of three patients who contracted C. diff in 2005 were older than 65, the AHRQ report showed. The death rate among CDAD patients was 9.5 percent, compared to about 2 percent overall.
C. diff spores linger on surfaces
C. diff produces spores that can linger on surfaces such as bedpans, toilet seats or floors for weeks. It's spread by touch, often by patients who acquire the fecal bacteria from improperly cleaned hospital rooms.
"It's on every surface," McCaughey said. "They get the spores on their hands and their food arrives and they ingest the spores with their dinner rolls."
Alcohol sanitizers are ineffective against the spores, which must be killed with bleach, she added.
It's not clear how much of the spike in CDAD cases was caused by more complete reporting of the hospital discharge data, said Dr. Michael Jhung, an epidemiologist with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who analyzed the data.
What is clear, however, is that CDAD was more frequently listed as the primary or secondary condition at discharge, he added. Researchers used statistics from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a database of hospital stays that include about 90 percent of all U.S. discharges.
Virulent strain is 20 times more toxic
The data didn't include specific information about a new, virulent strain of C. diff estimated to be about 20 times more toxic than previously known strains. The North American Phenotype 1/027 strain has been responsible for deadly outbreaks of the infection in Europe, Canada and the U.S. during the past several years.
"We do suspect that the virulent strain is increasing," Jhung said.
CDAD can be resistant to many frontline antibiotics, forcing use of the stronger vancomycin. But some infections are resistant to that drug as well, making them difficult or impossible to cure.
The best treatment is prevention, McCaughey said. Hospitals must improve their hygiene practices and patients must be vigilant about not touching surfaces and keeping their hands out of their mouths.
"This is a killer bacterium and we can't be lazy about it," she said.
Quote from: la-onda on April 24, 2008, 05:34:43 AM
Hi David,
a deeper VPHM analysis after the earnings on 30th of April would be highly appreciated!
any update from analysts David (e.g.GS?)?
cheers
Oliver
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports First Quarter 2008 Financial ResultsWednesday, April 30, 2008 07:30ET
EXTON, Pa., April 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) reported today its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2008.
Key events since December 31, 2007 include:
Development:
-- Notified sites participating in Phase 3 study of Camvia(TM) (maribavir)
in stem cell transplant patients that enrollment will be complete by
the end of May 2008;
-- Patient enrollment continued in Phase 3 study of maribavir in solid
organ transplant patients;
-- Prelaunch activities for maribavir accelerated in preparation for
planned 2009 initial NDA and MAA filing for maribavir in stem cell
transplant patients;
-- Announced in April that we have discontinued the development of HCV-796
due to the previously announced safety issue that emerged in the
ongoing Phase 2 trial in patients with hepatitis C; and
-- Efforts continued to optimize manufacturing and scale up for non-
toxigenic C. difficile (NTCD) program;
Operational:
-- Vincent J. Milano succeeded Michel de Rosen as president and chief
executive officer;
-- Daniel B. Soland appointed chief operating officer;
-- Net sales of Vancocin(R) achieved $51 million;
-- Vancocin direct sales efforts commenced; and
-- Research and development expenses increased by 171 percent over the
first quarter of 2007, primarily driven by investments in maribavir,
NTCD and increased personnel to support clinical development and
regulatory requirements;
Financial Results:
-- Operating income was $20 million;
-- Increased working capital by $25 million to $619 million;
-- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew by $15 million
to $599 million; and
-- 13th consecutive quarter of positive cash flow and profitability
achieved.
Financial Highlights
Net sales of Vancocin(R) were $50.9 million for the first quarter of 2008 as compared to $49.0 million for the first quarter of 2007.
Investment in our product pipeline and the Company continued to grow as research and development (R&D) and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $27.8 million for the first quarter of 2008 compared to $12.5 million for the first quarter of 2007. These increases were due primarily to the costs, including the costs of increased personnel associated with our phase 3 program for maribavir, along with increased selling, general and administrative expense due to compensations costs, including share-based compensation, which resulted from increased headcount for our European operations and our Vancocin(R) sales force, as well as medical education activities and marketing efforts.
Operating income in the first quarter ended March 31, 2008 was $19.5 million compared to $32.9 million in the first quarter of 2007. Operating income in the first quarter decreased primarily due to higher R&D and SG&A costs discussed above partially offset by the higher net sales.
"The beginning of 2008 has been both a strong period of execution and growing momentum for the company," stated Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "Our efforts around maribavir, including the ongoing pivotal Phase 3 clinical studies, pre-launch activities, global filing strategy and launch plan development, are all proceeding towards our planned 2009 initial NDA and MAA filings. We've also had continued progress in our C. difficile franchise. The performance of Vancocin was strong, keeping us on track to generate between $210 and $235 million in net sales of the product this year; we successfully launched our new sales force with the goal of growing this trusted brand, which to this day remains the only FDA-approved and clinically proven treatment for these very sick patients with severe C. difficile infection (CDI); and, our work continued in optimizing the manufacturing for our non-toxigenic C. difficile opportunity which we hope to move into human trials later this year."
Continued Milano, "We look forward to a number of significant events throughout 2008, starting in May with the completion of enrollment in our stem cell transplant study of maribavir. In the coming months, we anticipate the publication of the IDSA/SHEA CDI treatment guidelines which highlight the recommendation of Vancocin for treating patients with severe disease based upon compelling clinical trial data that demonstrated the superiority of Vancocin in this patient population."
Net income in the first quarter ended March 31, 2008 was $17.5 million compared to $22.1 million for the same period in 2007. Net income per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 was $0.25 per share, basic and $0.22 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.32 per share, basic, and $0.31 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2007. The primary drivers of the change in net income for the first quarter were the effects of decreased operating income discussed above, partially offset by increased interest income and a lower effective tax rate.
Operating Highlights
During the three months ended March 31, 2008, net sales of Vancocin increased 3.9 percent compared to the same period in 2007. The increase resulted from the impact of a price increase in February 2008, partially offset by a decrease in sales volume.
The cost of sales for Vancocin for the three months ended March 31, 2008 decreased $0.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2007 to $1.9 million from $2.2 million for the same period in 2007 due primarily to the decrease in sales volume.
The total remaining costs and expenses associated with operating income were $29.5 million and $13.9 million, for the first quarter of 2008 and 2007, respectively. These increases are primarily due to research and development costs, increased compensation related to our European operations and Vancocin sales force, medical education activities and marketing costs.
The Company's effective income tax rate was 28.5 percent and 39.4 percent for the quarters ended March 31, 2008 and 2007, respectively. Income tax expense includes federal, state and foreign income tax at statutory rates and the effects of various permanent differences. The decrease in the effective rate for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 as compared to the comparative periods in 2007 is primarily due to our current estimate of the impact of orphan drug credit for maribavir. We currently anticipate an effective tax rate in the range of approximately 27 percent to 31 percent for the year ended December 31, 2008, which includes an estimate related to orphan drug credit based upon estimates of qualified expenses and excludes the impact of discreet items and any potential changes in the valuation allowance. We continue to evaluate our qualified expenses and, to the extent that actual qualified expenses vary significantly from our estimates, our effective tax rate will be impacted.
Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of March 31, 2008 exceeded the milestone threshold of $45.0 million. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $2.1 million to intangible assets in March 2008.
Working Capital Highlights
As of March 31, 2008, ViroPharma's working capital was $619.5 million, which represents a $25.1 million increase from December 31, 2007. The three month increase is primarily the result of cash flows.
Looking ahead in 2008
ViroPharma is commenting upon previously announced guidance for the year 2008 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.
For the year 2008, ViroPharma expects the following
-- Net product sales are expected to be $210 to $235 million;
-- Research and development (R&D) and selling, general and administrative
(SG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be
$105 to $115 million.
-- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be in the range of $9
to $11 million. Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and
development (R&D) and sales, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses
are expected to be between $114 and $126 million.
from Zacks.com
ViroPharma a Deal Up to $14
Wednesday April 30, 10:27 pm ET
By Jason Napodano, CFA
ViroPharma Incorporated's (NasdaqGS: VPHM - News) stock has been in a sideways trend for the past several months. And, although we are maintaining our Buy rating on the stock, we continue to see little movement until an update is issued from the Office of Generic Drug (OGD) on a potential generic Vancocin product.
Management continues to petition the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to delay a generic entrant, most recently submitting views on the in vitro dissolution bi-equivalence testing methods. Approval of a generic product at Strides/Akorn at any time could create volatility in the stock. However, at this level the stock remains incredibly cheap and we are optimistic that management will be able to add significant value in the coming years.
We are maintaining our Buy rating with a price target of $14. This is despite the fact that we expect little movement in the stock price until clarity on the generic Vancocin issue emerges.
We do not expect a generic product launch until 2009. If the FDA/OGD is silent until 2009 that could mean ViroPharma's stock will remain in the tight trading range throughout most of the year. At this time we are looking for the Camvia phase III data from the stem cell transplant (SCT) study in the first quarter 2009 as the best near-term catalyst outside of an update from the FDA/OGD.
ViroPharma exited the first quarter 2008 with $599 million in cash on hand. This is 94% of the current market value of only $640 million. The net cash position (minus $250 million in debt) is still over 50% of the stock value. Management is actively seeking opportunities to put this cash to work.
We are anxiously awaiting an announcement. That being said, ViroPharma is one of the best managed companies in biotech. We are very confident in the financial and strategic position of the company that is key to our recommendation.
At this level ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $220.9 million yields a price to sales ratio of 2.9x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.90 (including option expense). Our $14 price target is based on 15.5x our 2008 EPS estimate of $0.90.
VPHM Discusses Q1 Earnings and Sees
Full-Year Sales Above Consensus
ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) announced Wednesday that firstquarter
earnings fell to $17.4 million, or 22 cents a share, from
$22.1 million, 31 cents, a year ago. Revenue increased to
$50.9 million from $49.0 million. Analysts had expected EPS
of 23 cents.
The President and CEO of Viropharma, Vincent J. Milano, stated in a conference call, "The
first quarter of 2008 represents our 13th consecutive quarter of profitability and positive cash
flows. We ended the quarter with $600 million in cash, and we continue to invest our cash
wisely and safely to withstand the current macro-economic environment."
"We expect our very good start for 2008 to continue through the rest of the year. We are wellpositioned
to meet our full-year guidance of $210 million to $235 million in net sales."
ViroPharma currently commercializes Vancocin(R), which is the only antibiotic approved to
treat two significant bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. The product is administered
orally and is indicated for the treatment of enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus
aureus (including methicillin-resistant strains) and antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous
colitis caused by Clostridium difficile.
The Company is also conducting research on non-toxigenic C. difficile (NTCD) with the goals
of preventing the recurrence of disease following effective therapy for acute C. difficile infection
(CDI) and preventing CDI in patients who are susceptible to colonization with toxigenic
strains due to prior use of antibiotics. ViroPharma is also researching next generation antiviral
compounds intended to target hepatitis C.
Camvia(TM) (maribavir) is an orally-administered antiviral Phase 3 drug in development for
prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in transplant patients. CMV is a member of the
herpesvirus family and is found in body fluids, including urine, saliva, breast milk, blood, tears,
semen, and vaginal fluids. Once CMV is in a person's body, it stays there for life. CMV is the
most frequent viral illness post transplant and is the most common cause of viral illness-related
death in transplant patients. Prophylaxis (preventative treatment) against CMV disease
is currently underutilized due to toxicity of current treatments.
Mr. Milano added, "We look forward to a number of significant events throughout 2008, starting
in May with the completion of enrollment in our stem cell transplant study of maribavir. In
the coming months, we anticipate the publication of the IDSA/SHEA CDI treatment guidelines
which highlight the recommendation of Vancocin for treating patients with severe disease
based upon compelling clinical trial data that demonstrated the superiority of Vancocin in this
patient population."
He concluded, "With our strong programs and balance sheet, we remain a very compelling
investment option for biotech investors. We believe the work that we are doing today can
provide opportunities for additional growth."
Quote from: la-onda on May 01, 2008, 02:00:39 AM
from Zacks.com
ViroPharma a Deal Up to $14
Wednesday April 30, 10:27 pm ET
By Jason Napodano, CFA
......
At this level ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $220.9 million yields a price to sales ratio of 2.9x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.90 (including option expense). Our $14 price target is based on 15.5x our 2008 EPS estimate of $0.90.
Is there any detailed update from Zacks, GS or others available via your tool?
Chart is acting in his trading range
just on my watchlist but nice chart action:
ViroPharma (VPHM): Drug Pipeline For Free
Jack McKay. May 28, 2008.
Pharmaceutical companies are well-known risks because significant portions of the companies' market values are attributed to the drug pipelines. It is difficult to accurately value drug pipelines because drug trial outcomes are difficult to predict and introduce significant risk. However, when the market ascribes little value to a company's pipeline, the drug trial risk is mitigated, and the share price downside associated with negative drug trial outcomes is minimal. Such a scenario is the case with ViroPharma.
ViroPharma Focus
ViroPharma (NASDAQ:VPHM) is a pharmaceutical company with one marketed drug and several more in the pipeline. ViroPharma has no research or manufacturing operations. The company licenses already-commercialized drugs and drugs in late-stage testing. ViroPharma funds the testing of these orphan drug candidates before outsourcing the actual manufacturing of the drug.
ViroPharma Drugs
ViroPharma's marketed drug is Vancocin, an antibiotic approved to treat two bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. ViroPharma's most prominent pipeline drug, Camvia (Maribavir), addresses transplant-induced cytomegalovirus (CMV) and is in Phase 3 testing. Vancocin sales have grown steadily the past several years, but the upward trajectory has matured. Additionally, the threat of generic competition for Vancocin has diminished future expectations of the drug's market performance. Meanwhile, the earliest the company can derive significant revenue from Camvia is around 2010. Shares of ViroPharma have traded between $7.11 and $16.62 over the past year. Lacking a drug in the prime of its growth, shares have slipped and currently trade for $8.99.
Vancocin
In 2004, ViroPharma acquired the United States rights for Vancocin from Eli Lilly for $116 million. ViroPharma will pay Eli Lilly additional amounts (35 percent of net sales between $45 million and $65 million) based on annual net sales of Vancocin through 2011. Vancocin is an oral antibiotic approved to treat two bacterial infections of the lower digestive tract. Sales of Vancocin have increased from $125 million in its first full year of sales in 2005 to $204 million in 2007. In 2007, Vancocin sales increased 22 percent over 2006 levels. In the first quarter of 2008, Vancocin sales were $51 million, a 4 percent increase over the $49 million in the same quarter in 2007.
However, patent protection for Vancocin expired in 1996, meaning that ViroPharma's sole source of current revenue is vulnerable to erosion by generics. Indeed, fears of generic competition to Vancocin have increased since an Office of Generic Drugs decision in 2006 allowed for generic alternatives to Vancocin to be tested "in vitro" – meaning that generic alternatives would not have to be tested in humans. When word got out in March 2006, ViroPharma's share price was almost halved, as ViroPharma announced that they believed generic alternatives would hit the market in the 2008-2009 time frame rather than the previously believed 2010-2011 time frame. However, introduction of a generic for Vancocin is still not imminent. Assuming no generic competition for Vancocin this year, ViroPharma expects 2008 Vancocin sales to be in the range of $210 million to $235 million, demonstrating that Vancocin sales have largely plateaued. The 1Q 2008 conference call was held on April 30, 2008, and ViroPharma management had the following to say regarding Vancocin:
"We had another good quarter of Vancocin sales, which positions us to meet our full year guidance of between $210 and $235 million in net sales this year. Our new sales force is now in the field detailing Vancocin... While first quarter sales are consistent with our thesis that the incidence of CDI is plateauing, our opportunities for growth going forward lie not in increases in the overall incidence of disease, but rather in promoting the drug to further penetrate the severe CDI market."
Camvia
In 2003, ViroPharma acquired the worldwide rights (minus Japan) to Camvia, an antiviral medication used in the treatment of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections related to transplant, congenital transmission, and HIV positive patients. Over 100,000 transplants are performed annually worldwide. CMV, a common herpes virus that afflicts between 50 to 80 percent of the adult population in the United States, regularly poses a more serious problem to immunocompromised transplant patients. According to ViroPharma, "approximately 60% of stem cell transplant patients on today's standard of care will become infected with CMV in the first 100 days post transplant. And roughly 10% of transplanted patients will develop CMV disease within six months."
ViroPharma has two Phase 3 studies for Camvia ongoing. A stem cell transplant patient study started enrolling patients in 4Q 2006, while a liver transplant patient study began enrolling patients in 3Q 2007. The stem cell transplant study will finish patient enrollment this month (May 2008).
The market opportunity for Camvia is predicted to be in the ballpark of $500 million per year in sales. According to ViroPharma management, "peak year sales for this drug could be between $400 and $500 million in global sales." However recent analysis has pegged the peak sales number higher. Historically, the few drugs targeting CMV have seen a rapid market uptake. The current market leader Valganciclovir induces serious side effects (it has blackbox warnings), has relatively poor efficacy, and is ineffective in treating a growing percentage of resistant CMV strains. Meanwhile, Phase 2 testing of Camvia showed that "prophylaxis with maribavir significantly reduced the incidence of CMV infection in this population. In addition to the favorable overall safety profile, there was no evidence of myelosuppression or renal toxicity at any of the doses tested." Camvia was granted orphan drug designation by the U.S. FDA in February 2007. The patents covering Camvia lapse in 2015, giving ViroPharma limited time to capitalize on the drug before facing potential generic competition.
Variables
Vancocin and Camvia are the only variables in Viropharma's equation. Hence, the major threats to Viropharma are the market entry of a generic for Vancocin, and a setback in the Phase 3 testing for Camvia (the first Phase 3 results should be released towards the end of 2008).
However, in May, a Thomas Weisel analyst noted that the likelihood of a generic version coming on the market this year "is growing increasingly thin," and that Camvia is on schedule for an early 2009 release. The analyst wrote, "Based on previous Phase II data and conversations with physicians, we believe Camvia will be a game-changer in the treatment of cytomegalovirus (CMV) in transplant patients," Willey wrote. "We believe management's $400-500 million estimate for peak Camvia sales remains highly conservative."
The analyst also noted that ViroPharma lacks short-term catalysts and concerns over generic Vancocin will temper investor enthusiasm until the situation is clearer.
Financials
Vancocin sales in 1Q 2008 increased 4 percent over the same quarter in 2007, but operating earnings shrunk by more than 40 percent due to sales force investments and increased investment in Camvia's Phase 3 testing. At the end of 1Q 2008, ViroPharma has $599 million in cash and equivalents, and $250 million debt. ViroPharma's market cap is $630 million, and the enterprise value is $281M. Free cash flow over the past year (2Q 2007 to 1Q 2008) is $121 million, while free cash flow over the past three years is approximately $285M, which is roughly equal to the company's present enterprise value.
Conclusion
Most analysts believe that the current value of Vancocin is roughly equal to the current enterprise value, meaning that the current share price is covered just by net cash and the present value of Vancocin's future cash flows. As a Piper Jaffray analyst stated, "we see a $9 to $10 absolute floor on the valuation from Vancocin and current cash alone, meaning that ViroPharma's promising pipeline drug Camvia is unaccounted for in the current valuation. Observers have noted that Camvia is worth about $4 - $5 to ViroPharma at present, and around $8 if Phase 3 testing is successful. For investors, there may not be a free lunch, but in ViroPharma, there is a free pipeline drug.
More information:
Q4 2007 Earnings Transcript
Q1 2008 Earnings Transcript
2007 Annual Report
http://yodastocks.com/analysis/viropharma
cheers
Oliver
Rams, could you please help:
ViroPharma Started At Buy By Stanford >VPHM
thanks in advance
Oliver
fyi:
Viropharma Comments On Upcoming FDA Advisory Committee Meeting
Thursday June 5, 9:20 am ET
EXTON, Pa., June 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) notes that FDA has published a notice of a meeting of its Advisory Committee for Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Pharmacology to be held on July 23, 2008. The Committee will address several issues at this meeting, including a discussion of:
" ... presentations from the Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) on the
bioequivalence methods for locally acting drugs that treat
gastrointestinal (GI) conditions ... "
For over two years, ViroPharma has called for a deliberative public discussion that would include input from clinicians as well as biopharmaceutics and dissolution experts. Bioequivalence determinations for locally acting GI drugs, particularly drugs like Vancocin® that treat a serious and potentially life threatening disease, are complex. Clostridium difficile infection results in significant morbidity and mortality, and has developed into a national health issue. The risk to patients of a product that is not bioequivalent to Vancocin in this setting is high.
"While the notice does not specifically identify Vancocin, ViroPharma intends to take every opportunity to ensure the points we've raised through our submissions will be brought forward to this committee," commented Thomas F. Doyle, ViroPharma's vice president, strategic initiatives.
ViroPharma is encouraged that FDA is taking this first step to allow a critique of OGD's bioequivalence proposals. As the company noted in a letter that it sent to FDA earlier this year (newly available on the company's website at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/), bioequivalence for Vancocin is deserving of "at least the same level of process and scientific discussion it has previously afforded locally acting GI drugs used to treat far less serious disease where the consequence associated with getting it wrong do not pose as great a risk to patients."
About Clostridium difficile
One of the most serious problems facing the U.S. healthcare system today is hospital-acquired infections (HAIs). Clostridium difficile infection is one of the most common and devastating HAIs. The incidence of C. difficile observed in U.S. healthcare facilities more than doubled between 2000 and 2005; between 1999 and 2004, reported mortality rates from C. difficile in the U.S. more than quadrupled to 23.7 per million. Elderly patients exposed to antibiotics, long-term care patients, or those that have a serious underlying illness, are at greatest risk to contract the disease. Patients with this disease have GI tract conditions that are significantly different from those of a healthy individual due to infection. Typical symptoms include diarrhea, fever, nausea and abdominal pain and dehydration, though cases can lead to life threatening complications such as megacolon, peritonitis and perforation of the colon.
sorry for the delay ::)
The initial post is now updated (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=11259.msg115974#msg115974).
Update:
Our trading plan missed an entry for VPHM through yesterday’s session. The stock was flat for the first hour, and started to rally big time with no intraday consolidations. I was expecting a slow down before the rally providing our entry zone, but yesterday’s market behavior was too bullish to provide that.
Anyway, we’re not going to chase VPHM, I still believe that a throwback to the breakout area ($10) is probable because of these reasons:
- Before the breakout, there was no consolidation, VPHM just breakout the resistance and moved 1$ higher.
- The current story in play will be up until July, and even if we believe it will have a positive outcome, some analysts are not so positive (mix feelings, see attached PDF’s below), this should provide some volatility, where the downside would be $10.
In the last 24 hours, several research departments have published comments on the recent events in play:
(http://www.inflamavel.com/images/icon/pdf_icon.png) – Download PDF’s (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=45996)
Probably it was an error not to buy VPHM at yesterdays open, and try to buy 25 ticks below… but chasing it would be against our current strategic plan for this portfolio, so we’ll keep the standby trading plan:
Standby trading plan:
Buy VPHM between $10.00 and $10.25
Bought VPHM @ $10.16 for the Portfolio.
Update:
Friday's general market plunge allowed us to open our position on VPHM inside our predefined entry range; in this case we've bought it @ $10.16 which is near the breakout area ($10).
The nearest support is $10 (breakout area and ex-resistance), followed by $9.72 (200-EMA), $9.33 (50-EMA) and $9.00 (ascending support line).
In normal market conditions we would expect a full upside reaction at $10.00 (which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), but due to current volatility we can probably watch a test to the next support zones without compromising the current bullish layout.
We are not setting a hard stop level right now, but we'll use $9.00 as a reference like stated on the initial post, and the $13 area as a possible target.
Trading Plan:
HOLD VPHM
Update:
VPHM had a first positive reaction on the breakout zone ($10), even though the current general market behavior is not helping the development of this position, and it is possible to watch VPHM trading below this support level if the market continues to tumble during the next trading days.
We’re updating the trading plan, setting a stop level and a target sell price following our initial trading idea.
$13 is our target, based on both TA and FA, $13 is the projection of previous range and by coincidence near the long term resistance. $13 is also a logic target following the most recent fundamental research on this stock taking in consideration good developments in the next FDA meeting.
About the stop price, basically the ascending support line is at $9.00, and in a very pessimistic scenario this is the maximum downside that VPHM can have in order to maintain the upside scenario In Play, so we’re placing the stop a few ticks below this level, and we’ll have a 1/3 risk/reward ratio in play.
The new trading plan is:
Trading Plan:
Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $8.95
VPHM: Jumps +1.14%; Vol +55%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Friday , June 20, 2008 16:21ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $10.50 $10.62 +1.14%
VOLUME 750,988 1,161,332 +54.64%
#TRADES 3,298 4,847 +46.97%
DAY-HI $10.51 $10.67 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $10.25 $10.25 N/A
charts:
Update:
Interesting price development for VPHM.
After a solid consolidation reacting positively near the 50EMA and near the 200EMA, the stock is now gaining upside momentum again with volume catching up.
We are just upgrading our stop level to follow up this positive developments, the new trading plan is:
Trading Plan:
Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $9.45
Who's got Zack's? INCREDIBLY CHEAP
http://biz.yahoo.com/zacks/080624/13369.html?.v=1
We remain confident that ViroPharma Inc.'s (NasdaqGS: VPHM - News)
position is strong. At this level the stock remains incredibly cheap,
and we are optimistic that management will be able to add significant
value in the coming years.
We see several driving forces in 2008 that lead us to believe it will
be another solid year for the Vancocin antibiotic. We see significant
opportunity for Vancocin to gain share in the most severely infected
patients. Clostridium difficile infection is a life-threatening
disease and the data is becoming clear that Vancocin is the best
available option for its treatment.
We are concerned about this generic risk but also remind investors that ViroPharma could be a dramatically different-looking company in 2010 if pipeline antiviral candidate Camvia succeeds in treating cytomegalovirus disease.
The stock will most likely remain in the tight trading range until we get an update from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration/Office of Generic Drugs on generic Vancocin. Positive news will send the shares significantly higher. The launch of a generic product will probably
cause a sell-off, although considering the current market value is $735 million and ViroPharma is sitting on $599 million in cash, we think that is a bet worth taking.
At this level the stock is too attractive to ignore. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $219.9 million yields a price to sales ratio of 3.3x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.90. The price to earnings ratio is only 11.8x. We think Camvia offers a significant growth opportunity over the long-term. As a result, our rating is Buy and our price target of $14 is based on 15.5x our 2008 EPS estimate of
$0.90.
Update:
VPHM continues to perform well despite the current market mood.
La-Onda already posted about the new Zacks report (thanks la-onda ;)), here you can see the complete 10 pages report:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=46385;image) (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=46386)
They added very positive comments and a $14 price target, while Zacks is one of the most respected research departments around (read the report for full details).
Our plan remains the same:
Trading Plan:
Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $9.45
Update:Since our last update, VPHM was able to breakout the previous resistance at $11 (now a support), making this move with strong volume and against a broad market tumble at the same time.
This technical behavior shows a lot of relative strength, suggesting upside continuation at anytime soon.
Today, PiperJaffray research department published a note for VPHM regarding some of the themes in Play (they rated VPHM with a BUY recommendation and a $14 price target):
QuoteViroPharma (VPHM - $11.21)
Company Note - June 27, 2008
Buy | Volatility: Medium
Mylan's Response To VPHM's Petition Flawed
KEY POINTS:
• New finding: Mylan discloses its generic Vancocin
• Mylan's response to VPHM's petition contains flawed arguments
• Buyer on weakness on generic Vancocin fears - Camvia can make up downside
• New Surprise: Mylan Has A Generic Vancocin. As a reminder, VPHM
originally filed a petition in March 2006 to prevent the FDA from allowing
dissolution testing to replace a clinical study for determining bioequivalence for
Vancocin. While we knew that Akorn (AKRX) had submitted an ANDA for a
generic Vancocin, Mylan has also posted a response to VPHM's petition for its
own generic vancomycin capsule. Mylan's key arguments are: 1) its vancomycin
capsules are rapidly dissolving in contrast to VPHM's assertion that Vancocin
does not meet the criteria for rapid dissolution required for dissolution studies;
and 2) there is no data to support that the GI tract differences in C. difficile
patients would limit the effectiveness of a generic approved under dissolution
studies. Secondary arguments include: vancomycin's low absorption, high
solubility, and a 1987 paper showing little difference in fecal concentrations
when vancomycin was delivered by capsule or by solution.
• Mylan's Arguments May Fall Short. Mylan's key argument is that Vancocin is
rapidly dissolving, a requirement for the dissolution studies to be used in lieu of
clinical studies. The discrepancy between Mylan and VPHM lies in the
dissolution apparatus used: Mylan used USP Apparatus II while VPHM used
USP Apparatus I. While both are options in the BCS waiver guidance document,
Apparatus I is recommended for capsules like Vancocin, whereas Apparatus II is
preferred for tablets (see p. 2). Mylan offers no rationale for its choice of
Apparatus II. Separately, we find the argument that there is no known data
suggesting that the perturbed GI motility or pH range of CDI patients would limit
the effectiveness of oral vancomycin to be a flawed argument and the very reason
why VPHM petitioned in the first place. VPHM is conducting a study to explore
this question and whether perturbations in gastric motility and pH in CDI falls
outside the scope of dissolution studies to mimic.
• Buy On Weakness – Value In Camvia Offsets Generic Risk. More insight into
the prospects and timing of a Vancocin generic may come from a FDA panel
meeting on July 23 on bioequivalence methods for locally acting GI drugs.
However, it is unclear if there will be specific debate of Vancocin at this meeting.
Any weakness in the stock from this panel meeting could be a good buying
opportunity given the prospects for Camvia in late-stage development. We are
using this opportunity to shift our generic assumption from 3Q08 to 4Q08. Even
in this worst case scenario for VPHM, our price target is $14 and already
assumed two near-term generic competitors, and thus, the new discovery of
Mylan's filing does not affect our valuation.
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION:
ViroPharma is rated Buy. Our price target of $14 is based on a sum-of-the-parts
valuation: $7 cash + $3 Vancocin + $4 Camvia.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE:
Risks include but are not limited to: 1) Vancocin generic competition, 2) failure in
Camvia program; and 3) failure to develop a pipeline beyond Camvia.
Our plan remains the same:
Trading Plan:Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $9.45
Update:
Despite the current market slide, VPHM is holding up above the $11 breakout level. It would be normal to watch some consolidation though, but for now this is a powerful relative strength signal.
The 50EMA just crossed above the 200EMA, which is a standard long term bullish signal (not important for short term, but a good technical input), these moving averages are located a little below $10.
PiperJaffray just published another note, this time commenting May's IMS sales:
QuoteMay IMS Sales Update
Company Note - July 1, 2008
KEY POINTS:
• Vancocin prescription sales trends for May suggest upside to our 2Q08 estimate
of $57.9 million; Raising estimate to $65.0 million
• Price target remains $14
• May Monthly Vancocin Sales Data. The IMS audit for the month of May
recorded $20.6 million in Vancocin sales, up 2.6% from April sales of $20.1
million. Relative to the prior-year, Vancocin sales for May are up 11.6% Y/Y and
up 6.7% comparing April/May of 2008 to the same time period in 2007. Of note,
historical patterns of Vancocin use have shown a yearly peak around the month
of June, lagging the season of peak antibiotic use during the winter. We also
remind investors that IMS monthly sales are reported on a 4-4-5 calendar,
which—assuming consistent demand for the rest of the quarter—points to
$66.1m in Vancocin sales for 2Q08. Our 2Q08 Vancocin sales estimate of
$57.9m assumes an extra 0.4 weeks of inventory relative to 2Q07, a 5.6% Y/Y
decrease in end-user demand, and a 9.4% price increase effective February 5 for
an overall 3.3% increase in Y/Y sales. Based on the discrepancy between the
6.7% increase in IMS Vancocin sales seen for April-May 2008 over the same
time period in 2007 and our modeling assumption of a 5.6% Y/Y decrease in
end-user demand, we are raising our 2Q08 Vancocin sales estimate from $57.9m
to $65m. Q/Q sales trends could also be helped by the relatively recent launch of
the first Vancocin promotional efforts with a small sales force in the Northeast
and medical education grants. We continue to believe that IMS monthly sales
have the best correlation with end-user demand, and we will continue to closely
monitor IMS monthly prescription and sales data.
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION:
ViroPharma is rated Buy. Our price target of $14 is based on a sum-of-the-parts
valuation: $7 cash + $3 Vancocin + $4 Camvia.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE:
Risks include but are not limited to: 1) Vancocin generic competition, 2) failure in
Camvia program; and 3) failure to develop a pipeline beyond Camvia.
Our plan remains the same, but probably after a consolidation or another upside breakout we'll increase our stop level:
Trading Plan:Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $9.45
VPHM: Jumps +2.32%; Vol +55%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , July 01, 2008 16:21ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $11.21 $11.47 +2.32%
VOLUME 944,787 1,468,902 +55.47%
#TRADES 4,403 7,113 +61.55%
DAY-HI $11.28 $11.52 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $10.84 $10.84 N/A
Update:
VPHM again with interesting technical developments... Another new high for this upswing, closing near $11.50 and suggesting continuation. We are half the way to our target now.
Our plan remains the same:
Trading Plan:
Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $9.45
very nice update >:D
ViroPharma Provides Update on Upcoming FDA Advisory Committee Meeting to Discuss Bioequivalence of Locally Acting Gastrointestinal Drugs
Tuesday , July 08, 2008 09:00ET
EXTON, Pa., July 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) has been informed by U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that the July 23, 2008 meeting of its Advisory Committee for Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Pharmacology is not intended to discuss specifically ViroPharma's Vancocin(R) (vancomycin hydrochloride capsules) or any other drug products. Rather, FDA has informed ViroPharma that FDA's Office of Generic Drugs (OGD) will only present for the Committee's consideration issues of general applicability to all locally acting drugs that treat gastrointestinal (GI) conditions. FDA also informed ViroPharma that any resulting recommendations by the Committee will be similarly general in nature. Additionally, ViroPharma has been advised that it will be afforded no more time to speak at the meeting than is afforded to any other member of the public, consistent with the non-product specific focus of the meeting. ViroPharma understands that the time to be provided to any one speaker will be very limited.
Based on FDA's statements to ViroPharma regarding the purpose of this meeting, made by both Committee staff and FDA's Office of Chief Counsel, ViroPharma will not discuss Vancocin at this meeting. Given ViroPharma's experience in this area, and the limited time available to speakers at the meeting, ViroPharma today submitted a letter to the Committee to aid its consideration of the general issue of bioequivalence methods for locally acting GI drugs. Among other things, ViroPharma's letter notes important issues that must be addressed in this complex area of bioequivalence method development, and attaches for the Committee's review a letter sent to FDA last year by the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) expressing concerns of infectious disease experts. A copy of ViroPharma's letter and the attachment is now available on ViroPharma's website at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/.
FDA has indicated that ViroPharma can expect the opportunity for public input regarding bioequivalence methods for Vancocin, but has not yet committed to a next step. Commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's vice president, chief scientific officer, "We are encouraged that FDA appears to be taking the first step toward a public process to consider the development of bioequivalence methods for locally acting drugs that treat gastrointestinal conditions. After the general discussion at the July 23rd Advisory Committee meeting, FDA should be better prepared to conduct a public process on bioequivalence methods for Vancocin specifically. ViroPharma is prepared to participate in that process when the time comes. We have long contended that changes in GI physiology observed in patients with Clostridium difficile infection make healthy gut bioequivalence models inapplicable to drugs, like Vancocin, which treat this condition."
ViroPharma has previously explained in various submissions to FDA that appropriate public process for development of bioequivalence methods specifically for Vancocin should include (1) public proposal of the method and the data FDA believes validate that method; (2) FDA receipt of and response to public comments on the proposed method; (3) consideration by the appropriate FDA Advisory Committees, including the Advisory Committee for Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Pharmacology; and (4) final decision making on whether to adopt the method by neutral scientific and medical experts, not the FDA personnel who originally proposed the method. ViroPharma continues to believe that bioequivalence for Vancocin is deserving of at least the same level of process and scientific discussion that FDA has previously afforded locally acting GI drugs such as cholestyramine, mesalamine, and sucralfate that are used to treat far less serious diseases where the consequence associated with getting it wrong do not pose as great a risk to patients.
ViroPharma's filings detailing these requirements are available on ViroPharma's website at http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/.
Update:
Interesting developments for VPHM's chart, once again the stock manage to reach new relative highs while the board market was tumbling. This situation gives us a nice relative strength for VPHM right now, and that could mean increasing the upside momentum at anytime.
In Play during the last session was some FDA news. Yesterday, the analysts at Goldman Sachs published this research note:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=46572;image)
Our plan remains the same:
Trading Plan:
Sell @ $13.00, Stop @ $9.45
ViroPharma: Increasing Q2 Vancocin estimate - Cowen (11.95 )
Cowen is increasing their Q2 sales ests on VPHM's Vancocin based on IMS (accounting for their typical sales over-estimation) data to $62.1 mln ahead of consensus of $58.3 mln. Firm says additional upside to their and consensus 2H08 sales ests is possible if current organic growth expands with VPHM's pilot marketing initiative, although they don't expect 2008 sales to exceed the current co guidance of $210-235 mln. Firm adds that at this point, it is unclear if the growth in organic sales is sustainable over 2H08, or merely a one-time seasonal event.
Chart:
sold 30% @ 12.89
ViroPharma to Release 2008 Second Quarter Financial Results on July 30, 2008
Monday , July 14, 2008 16:30ET
EXTON, Pa., July 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated's (Nasdaq: VPHM) second quarter financial results for 2008 are expected to be released on Wednesday, July 30, 2008 before the open of the U.S. financial markets.
The company will host a conference call and live audio webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day. During the conference call, ViroPharma management will discuss the 2008 second quarter financial results and other business.
The press release and the live webcast of the conference call will be accessible via ViroPharma's corporate website at http://www.viropharma.com. An audio archive will be available at the same address until August 15, 2008. To participate in the conference call, please dial (888) 299-4099 (domestic) and (302) 709-8337 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
Update:
VPHM continues to aggresively outpace the market. Applaud La-onda for the information and the news updates with VPHM.
Yesterdays high got to within a few cents of our profit target, some of you (like La-onda) may have taken profit in that area, well done if that is the case. As the intraday price action got so close I will take the following actions; 1) Lower the profit target to $12.90 (just below yesterdays high, I don't want that high to act as resistance) 2) Raise our stop to a more logical level at $10.40 just below July 9th pivot low.
Trade Plan:
Sell at $12.90 Stop at $10.40
ViroPharma To Acquire Lev Pharmaceuticals
- Acquisition Adds Late Stage Product Targeting Life-threatening Hereditary Angioedema Disease with Limited Treatment Options
- Company to Host Conference Call at 10:30 A.M. Eastern Today to Discuss Transaction
EXTON, Pa., July 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) and Lev Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: LEVP) today announced that the companies have signed a definitive merger agreement under which ViroPharma will acquire Lev, a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapeutic products for the treatment of inflammatory diseases, for $442.9 million of upfront consideration, or $2.75 per Lev share, comprised of $2.25 per share in cash and $0.50 per share in ViroPharma common stock (subject to a collar). Contingent consideration of up to $1.00 per share may be paid on achievement of certain regulatory and commercial milestones. The transaction with a potential net aggregate value of up to $617.5 million has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies. The companies expect the transaction to be completed by the end of 2008. In addition, concurrently with the execution of the merger agreement, ViroPharma purchased $20 million of Lev common stock.
The acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals further enhances ViroPharma's pipeline with Cinryze(TM) (C1 inhibitor (human)), which is currently under regulatory review for approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as a replacement therapy for patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE), also known as C1 esterase inhibitor (C1-INH) deficiency. The use of replacement therapy in patients with C1-INH deficiency is supported by more than 35 years of clinical practice experience in Europe. C1-INH depletion is also implicated in a number of other serious inflammatory disorders.
Hereditary angioedema, or C1-INH deficiency, is a dangerous and potentially deadly inflammatory disease affecting up to 10,000 patients in the United States, caused by a genetic deficiency in an essential protein called C1 esterase inhibitor. Clinical studies have shown that prophylactic C1 inhibitor replacement therapy with Cinryze can significantly reduce the severity, duration and frequency of HAE attacks.
"This transaction is consistent with ViroPharma's stated objective of broadening our portfolio of therapies for serious life-threatening conditions in selected specialty markets," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "Lev's orphan drug Cinryze(TM) is a life-saving therapy treating a very dangerous disease. This opportunity provides a clear strategic fit with ViroPharma: Cinryze targets a market that is addressable with modest additional infrastructure and further serves patients suffering from a disease with few treatment options. We are very pleased to add the expertise of Lev to our organization, and Cinryze to our growing portfolio of options for underserved patient populations with critical and urgent needs."
"We believe this transaction recognizes the value we have created at Lev and provides our shareholders with attractive financial terms, through the upfront payment and the opportunity to continue to share in the success of Cinryze(TM) through the ownership of ViroPharma shares and the contingent value rights," commented Judson Cooper, Lev's chairman of the board. "Leveraging the combined resources of both companies not only strengthens our C1 inhibitor development platform, but also underscores our commitment to serving patients with critical unmet medical needs."
Just like that it wipes away our profits and hits the stops!
Indeed Basanlas the timing of yesterdays high being so close to our target (but not quite getting there) and then the news on the LEV takeover (which the initial market reaction to is one of negativity) can be summed up in one word....SH1T
However that is the inherent risk with trading, soon there will be one that does go in your favour.
Stopped out of VPHM $10.40
well I have bought back VPHM @ 10.35 >:D
why?
please check:
ViroPharma's Growing Pains
07.15.08, 5:50 PM ET
ViroPharma dropped after investors became unfamiliar with where they put their money.
Shares of the Exton, Penn.-based biotech firm sunk 13.2%, or $1.67, to $10.87, after it announced it was buying Lev Pharmaceuticals for $442.9 million, or $2.75 per share. The offer marks a 48.6% premium above Lev's closing price of $1.85 Monday.
There's also a contingent consideration of up to $1.00 per share that would be paid if Lev's drug candidate Cinryze meets certain milestones, making the deal potentially worth $617.5 million. Cinryze treats HAE, which causes severe swelling, and can be fatal if it causes swelling in the larynx.
Patients who suffer acute attacks may be treated with breathing tubes and tracheostomy, a procedure in which surgeons cut into the windpipe to allow a patient to breathe. The illness is most often treated with anabolic steroids in the U.S., but ViroPharma said patients and allergists would prefer a new option.
ViroPharma 's only marketed drug is Vancocin, which treats gastrointestinal tract infections.
The deal sent Lev's stock soaring 30.3%, or 56 cents, to $2.41, in late-afternoon trading. Aside from a small swoon earlier this year, the stock has been effectively flat since the beginning of 2007. Lev is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing treatments for inflammatory diseases
So why are ViroPharma's shareholders so unhappy? Because they saw the deal as a good time to sell. According to Jason Napodano, an analyst at Zacks Investment, Lev is a small and little known company. Concurrently, one of the main supports for ViroPharma's stock was its huge cash balance, which the company is putting most of into Lev.
Coupled with that is ViroPharma's recent rise. Since the beginning of the year ViroPharma's has gained 41.2%, which is especially remarkable since the S&P 500 has lost 16.4% over the same period.
"The strategy for ViroPharma has changed, there're new risks," Napodano said. "It's a knee jerk reaction, but that's what happens." That doesn't mean Napodano believes ViroPharma isn't worth the money. The analyst still has a "buy" rating on the stock.
&
VPHM: Management Discusses Acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals
Tuesday , July 15, 2008 13:49ET
Viropharma, Inc. (VPHM) and Lev Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (LEVP) have signed a definitive merger agreement under which ViroPharma will acquire Lev for $442.9 million of upfront consideration, or $2.75 per Lev share, comprised of $2.25 per share in cash and $0.50 per share in ViroPharma common stock (subject to a collar). Contingent consideration of up to $1.00 per share may be paid on achievement of certain regulatory and commercial milestones. The transaction has a potential net aggregate value of up to $617.5 million. In addition, concurrently with the execution of the merger agreement, ViroPharma purchased $20 million of Lev common stock.
The acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals further enhances ViroPharma's pipeline with Cinryze(TM) (C1 inhibitor (human)), which is currently under regulatory review for approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as a replacement therapy for patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE), also known as C1 esterase inhibitor (C1-INH) deficiency.
HAE is the result of a defect in the gene controlling the synthesis of C1 inhibitor. C1 inhibitor maintains the natural regulation of the contact, complement, and fibrinolytic systems, that when left unrestricted, can initiate or perpetuate an attack by consuming the already low levels of endogenous C1 inhibitor in HAE patients. Patients with C1 inhibitor deficiency experience recurrent, unpredictable, debilitating, and potentially life threatening attacks of inflammation affecting the larynx, abdomen, face, extremities and urogenital tract. While there is no approved therapy for acute HAE attacks in the U.S., a commercially available C1 inhibitor has been used in Europe to treat HAE for more than 35 years. There are estimated to be 10,000 people with HAE in the U.S.
Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and CEO, explained in a conference call today, "Lev represents an ideal strategic fit for us. They have a late stage, clinically proven product with additional indication opportunities. Cinryze provides a strong exclusivity proposition and U.S. Orphan Drug designation. It is the only drug in development with pivitol data in HAE prophylaxis. We also believe that there is a good probability of near term approval in prophylaxis in Q4 of 2008. This drug has a high probability of regulatory and commercial success."
He added, "We believe Cinryze to be at least a $250 million to $350 million a year product at peak with margins of between 65% and 70%."
Dr. Colin Broom, Chief Scientific Officer of ViroPharma, commented, "I am convinced that Cinryze is an important drug that will save many lives. We are confident that Lev has adequately addressed all issues raised by the FDA's recent approvable letter."
The COO of ViroPharma, Daniel B. Soland, discussed the commercial strategy, "The FDA has indicated that they are considering HAE prophylaxis and acute treatment separately for exclusivity. This is very important because, even though several HAE drugs are in development, Cinryze is the only drug in development with pivotal prophylactic data."
"Despite a 50/50 chance that an HAE patient will pass it on to their child, only 34% of family members have been tested for HAE. HAE treeating allergists average 6.5 HAE patients per practice. 64% to 75% currently use prevention with steriods despite limitations and long term health concerns. 59% of responding allergists rate current satisfaction as 3 or below on a scale of 7," added Mr. Soland.
Mr. Milano concluded, "Strong work in advance of approval by the Lev team will help support a successful launch. Viropharma's commercial and regulatory experience, infrastructure and capital improve the likelihood of success. Cinryze is a niche market opportunity that is addressable with modest infrastructure. The intergration is very doable and both companies will be engaged."
please download attached presentation!
Ahead of the Bell: ViroPharma upgraded >:D >:D >:D
Wednesday July 16, 8:29 am ET
Analyst upgrades ViroPharma after Lev buyout, saying Cinryze will fill revenue gap
NEW YORK (AP) -- A Thomas Weisel analyst upgraded shares of ViroPharma Inc. Wednesday, saying the company has gained a key drug candidate in its buyout of Lev Pharmaceuticals.
ViroPharma agreed to buy Lev on Tuesday for $442.9 million in cash and stock, giving ViroPharma access to Lev's drug candidate Cinryze. Analyst Stephen Willey believes the drug will be approved in October, and said Cinryze will help ViroPharma replace revenue from its drug Vancocin, which could face generic competition next year. If Cinryze is approved by the Food and Drug Administration and granted market exclusivity, the price of the deal could rise to $617.5 million. The drug is designed to treat hereditary angioedema, a rare genetic disease that causes pain and swelling of the face and extremities. HAE can be deadly if it leads to blockage of a patient's airways. Other drug makers developing treatments including Dyax Corp. and Shire Ltd.
Vancocin treats gastrointestinal infections, and it is ViroPharma's only marketed product.
Willey raised his rating to "Overweight" from "Market weight," and lifted his price target to $15 per share from $10. He thinks Vancocin sales may start declining in 2009, but expects Cinryze to be approved early next year -- helping the company operate until its drug Camvia reaches the market in late 2010 or early 2011.
In a Tuesday conference call, ViroPharma said it expects peak annual sales of Cinryze to reach $250 million to $300 million.
"Competition in HAE drug development is fierce, with five late-stage clinical candidates all vying for approval in both the U.S. and Europe," Willey said. But he thinks Cinryze has an advantage because clinical data supports its use as a prophylactic, or preventive, treatment. He said that means the drug is likely to receive orphan drug status, blocking competitors from the market.
Camvia is designed to treat cytomegalovirus in stem cell and liver transplant patients. Willey said ViroPharma's estimate of $400 million to $500 million in peak sales for Camvia is "highly conservative."
ViroPharma rises, then pares gains after Lev deal
Wednesday July 16, 7:16 pm ET
ViroPharma shares rise, then pare gains after Lev Pharma buyout; analyst upgrades rating
NEW YORK (AP) -- ViroPharma Inc. shares wavered Wednesday as Wall Street took a second look at the company's buyout of Lev Pharmaceuticals and Lev's drug candidate Cinryze.
ViroPharma agreed to buy Lev on Tuesday for $442.9 million in cash and stock. If the Food and Drug Administration approves Cinryze and grants it exclusivity as a treatment for acute hereditary angioedema, the price could rise to $617.5 million. ViroPharma stock dropped 15.3 percent Tuesday, and in Wednesday afternoon trading, it picked up 26 cents to close at $10.88. Earlier in the session, the shares advanced as much as 6 percent.
In a telephone interview, Cowen and Co. analyst Rachel McMinn said the stock dropped because ViroPharma's investors hadn't heard of Lev or Cinryze before. She said that from their perspective, ViroPharma burned off a big portion of its "cash cushion" on a deal that looks risky.
HAE is a rare genetic disease that causes pain and swelling of the face and extremities. It can be deadly if it leads to blockage of a patient's airways. ViroPharma estimates that about 10,000 people have the disease in the U.S., although only about 4,600 have been diagnosed.
Cinryze is being tested as a treatment for acute HAE attacks, and as a preventive treatment to stop the attacks from occurring. The FDA is considering those two applications separately. While Cinryze could be approved in October as a preventive treatment, another drug -- CSL Behring's Berinert -- could be approved in September for acute cases.
Both drugs have received orphan drug status, which would prevent any rival drugs from being approved for the same application for up to seven years. McMinn said the drugs are "identical," and if both are approved, they could split the already-small market in HAE.
"Physicians might just substitute one for the other," she said. "If prices are same it becomes a question of who they like better from a sales perspective."
Other drug makers developing treatments include Dyax Corp. and Shire Ltd. Both Cinryze and Berinert replace a protein called C1 esterase inhibitor. The protein stops the inflammation reaction, and because HAE patients do not have enough of it, their inflammation reaction can spiral out of control.
Thomas Weisel analyst Stephen Willey believes the drug will be approved in October, and said Cinryze will help ViroPharma replace revenue from its gastrointestinal infection drug Vancocin, which could face generic competition next year.
Willey raised his rating to "Overweight" from "Market weight," and lifted his price target to $15 per share from $10. He thinks Vancocin sales may start declining in 2009, but expects Cinryze to be approved early next year -- helping the company operate until its drug Camvia reaches the market in late 2010 or early 2011.
In a Tuesday conference call, ViroPharma said it expects peak annual sales of Cinryze to reach $250 million to $300 million.
"Competition in HAE drug development is fierce, with five late-stage clinical candidates all vying for approval in both the U.S. and Europe," Willey said. But he thinks Cinryze has an advantage because clinical data supports its use as a prophylactic, or preventive, treatment. He said that means the drug is likely to receive orphan drug status.
Camvia is designed to treat cytomegalovirus in stem cell and liver transplant patients. Willey said ViroPharma's estimate of $400 million to $500 million in peak sales for Camvia is "highly conservative."
please check and download attached CC transcript and chart update >:D
VPHM: Stanford Group Cuts to Hold from Buy; Sets Tgt @ $11; Analyst Notes
Friday , July 18, 2008 09:45ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Stanford Group
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Hold (from Buy)
Target Price: $11.00
Analyst Comments: The firm downgraded the stock after a highly knowledgeable, unbiased consultant told them that drug companies would not have to conduct clinical tests before obtaining approval for a generic version of ViroPharma's Vancocin. As a result, Stanford forecasts a major decline in Vancocin sales starting next year.
>:D back we are...
awesome news:
ViroPharma:
Panel meeting provides little insight into FDA's thinking on generic Vancocin - Rodman & Renshaw (10.04 )
Rodman & Renshaw notes the FDA held an advisory committee meeting for Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Pharmacology. Although no specific drug was considered by the panel, the topic of discussion was relevant to the ongoing issue of the potential ANDA approval of a generic Vancocin based solely on in vitro bioequivalence data. As expected, little was learned today that gives firm any further insight as to when a generic Vancocin will be approved. It was clear from the meeting that the FDA is determined to find an appropriate way to approve generic versions of drugs that act locally in the GI tract. Firm has further confidence that a generic Vancocin will not be approved in the near term. They currently assume that no generic Vancocin will be approved in 2008 and today's advisory committee meeting has given them no reasons to alter this assumption.
VPHM: Short Interest UP 1.2% to 12.1M in Mid Jul 2008
Thursday , July 24, 2008 16:23ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 1.2% to 12,149,732 shares as reported in mid-July, 2008.
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,926,460, it would require approximately 7 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Chart:
Earnings estimation and chart update:
>:D >:D >:D
ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Second Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Wednesday July 30, 7:46 am ET
- Company Achieves Record Vancocin(R) Net Sales; Increases Full Year Guidance for 2008 -
EXTON, Pa., July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the second quarter and six-months ended June 30, 2008.
Key events since March 31, 2008 include:
Development:
-- Completed enrollment in Phase 3 study of maribavir in stem cell transplant (SCT) patients;
-- Announced intent to present top-line maribavir Phase 3 SCT data in the first quarter of 2009;
-- Announced intent to file the initial New Drug Application (NDA) in the U.S., Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) in Europe, and New Drug Submission (NDS) in Canada for maribavir in SCT patients in the third quarter of 2009;
-- Complete clinical trial results from maribavir Phase 2 study in stem cell transplant patients were published in the June 1 issue of the scientific journal Blood; and
-- Patient enrollment continued in Phase 3 study of maribavir in solid organ (liver) transplant patients.
Operational:
-- Net sales of Vancocin achieved a record $65 million;
-- Research and development expenses increased by 106 percent over the second quarter of 2007, primarily driven by investments in maribavir and NTCD; and
-- Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 94 percent over the second quarter of 2007 due to increased investments in our European operations, our Vancocin sales force, additional medical education activities and increased marketing efforts.
Business Development:
-- Signed a definitive merger agreement under which ViroPharma will acquire Lev Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: LEVP - News) for $442.9 million of upfront consideration, or $2.75 per Lev share, comprised of $2.25 per share in cash and $0.50 per share in ViroPharma common stock (subject to collar);
-- Contingent consideration of up to $1.00 per share may be paid on achievement of certain regulatory and commercial milestones; and
-- Transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2008.
Financial Results:
-- Operating income was $30 million;
-- Increased working capital by $25 million to $644 million;
-- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew by $34 million to $633 million; and
-- 14th consecutive quarter of positive cash flow and profitability achieved.
Net sales of Vancocin were $65.4 million for the second quarter of 2008 and $116.4 million for the first six months of 2008, as compared to $56.1 million and $105.1 million in the respective 2007 periods.
Operating income in the second quarter and six-months ended June 30, 2008 was $29.7 million and $49.2 million, respectively, compared to $35.9 million and $68.8 million in the second quarter and six months of 2007, respectively. Operating income decreased primarily due to higher R&D and SG&A costs partially offset by higher net sales.
"The second quarter of 2008 was a period of considerable achievement throughout the company," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "The growing momentum surrounding maribavir was evident as we completed enrollment of our phase 3 study in stem cell transplant patients, solidified our global regulatory filing strategy and continued to finalize our pre-launch, approval and launch plans. We also continue to make noteworthy progress enrolling patients in the solid organ transplant study. In addition, we saw remarkable performance of Vancocin, generating record quarterly revenue during the second quarter and allowing us to increase our 2008 net sales guidance to between $220 and $240 million. Our sales force, which launched earlier in the year, is making good progress in accessing the physician community and we anticipate that the progress will continue throughout the year."
Continued Milano, "We believe that the second half of 2008 will be marked by additional momentum throughout the business as we continue to execute on the maribavir studies and progress towards our planned initial NDA, MAA, and NDS filings in the third quarter of 2009. Regarding our C. difficile franchise, we look forward to the publication of the final IDSA/SHEA treatment guidelines later this year for the management of C. difficile infection as these guidelines represent an important step in ensuring that the most severely affected patients are receiving Vancocin, the appropriate therapy for these patients."
Net income in the second quarter and six-months ended June 30, 2008 was $24.1 million and $41.5 million, respectively, compared to a net income of $31.6 million and $53.7 million for the same periods in 2007. Net income per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 was $0.34 per share, basic and $0.30 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.45 per share, basic, and $0.39 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2007. Net income per share for the six-months ended June 30, 2008 was $0.59 per share, basic, and $0.51 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $0.77 per share, basic, and $0.70 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2007.
The primary drivers of the decrease in net income were the effects of lower operating income discussed above, partially offset by a lower effective tax rate.
Operating Highlights
During the three and six months ended June 30, 2008, net sales of Vancocin increased 16.6 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2007 primarily due to an increase in the number of units sold to wholesalers and the impact of a price increase during 2008.
The cost of sales for Vancocin for the three and six months ended June 30, 2008 decreased $0.2 million and $0.6 million, respectively, as compared to the same periods in 2007. For the three and six month periods ended June 30, 2008 the cost of sales was $2.4 million and $4.3 million, respectively, compared to $2.6 million and $4.9, respectively, for the same period in 2007.
Investment in our product pipeline and the Company continued to grow as research and development (R&D) and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses in the second quarter and six-months ended June 30, 2008 were $31.2 million and $59.0 million, respectively compared to $15.6 million and $28.1 million for the second quarter and six-months of 2007, respectively. These increases were due primarily to the increased costs, including the costs of increased personnel, associated with our phase 3 program for maribavir, along with increased selling, general and administrative expense due to compensations costs, including share-based compensation, which resulted from increased headcount for our European operations and our Vancocin sales force, as well as medical education activities and marketing efforts.
The Company's effective income tax rate was 25.6 percent and 22.7 percent for the quarters ended June 30, 2008 and 2007, respectively, and 26.8 percent and 30.6 percent for the six months ended June 30, 2008 and 2007, respectively. Income tax expense includes federal, state and foreign income tax at statutory rates and the effects of various permanent differences. The variances in the effective rate for the quarter and six-months ended June 30, 2008 as compared to the comparative periods in 2007 is primarily due to our current estimate of the impact of orphan drug credit for maribavir. We currently anticipate an effective tax rate in the range of approximately 25 percent to 30 percent for the year ended December 31, 2008, which includes an estimate related to orphan drug credit based upon estimates of qualified expenses and excludes the impact of discreet items and any potential changes in the valuation allowance. We continue to evaluate our qualified expenses and, to the extent that actual qualified expenses vary significantly from our estimates, our effective tax rate will be impacted.
Regarding additional payments due to Lilly in connection with the Vancocin acquisition, net sales as of June 30, 2008 exceeded the milestone threshold of $45.0 million. As a result, the Company recorded additional purchase price of $7.0 million to intangible assets in 2008. No purchase price consideration will be due to Lilly relating to net sales occurring in the remainder of 2008.
Working Capital Highlights
As of June 30, 2008, ViroPharma's working capital was approximately $644.0 million, which represents a $49.6 million increase from December 31, 2007, $24.5 million of which occurred in the second quarter of 2008. The six month increase is primarily the result of cash flows provided by sales of Vancocin.
Business Development Highlights
As more fully detailed in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, on July 15, 2008, we announced that we signed a definitive merger agreement with Lev Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Lev), pursuant to which we will acquire Lev. The merger agreement provides for HAE Acquisition Corp., our wholly owned merger subsidiary, to merge with and into Lev with Lev continuing as the surviving company. The terms of the merger agreement provide for the conversion of each share of Lev common stock into upfront consideration of $2.75 per Lev share, comprised of $2.25 per share in cash and $0.50 per share in our common stock (subject to collars), and contingent consideration of up to $1.00 per share which may be paid upon achievement of certain regulatory and commercial milestones.
The merger agreement contains certain termination rights for us and Lev, as the case may be, applicable upon the occurrence of certain events specified in the merger agreement. The merger agreement provides that, in the event of the termination of the merger agreement under specified circumstances, Lev may be required to pay us a termination fee.
The merger agreement provides for both ViroPharma and Lev to conduct our respective businesses in the ordinary course until the merger is completed and not to take certain actions during the period from the date of the merger agreement until the date of completion of the merger.
The transaction with a potential net aggregate value of up to approximately $617.5 million has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies. We expect the transaction to be completed by the end of 2008. In addition, concurrently with the execution of the merger agreement, we made a $20 million investment in Lev common stock to provide Lev with short and medium term financing in connection with the commercialization of its product candidate Cinryze(TM).
Looking ahead in 2008
ViroPharma is commenting upon guidance for the year 2008 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below. The guidance below excludes the acquisition and operations of Lev Pharmaceuticals.
For the year 2008, ViroPharma expects the following
-- Net product sales are expected to be $220 to $240 million;
-- Research and development (R&D) and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be $110 to $120 million.
-- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be in the range of $9 to $11 million. Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and development (R&D) and sales, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to be between $119 and $131 million.
ViroPharma Cheap and Promising
Friday August 1, 12:06 pm ET
By Jason Napodano, CFA
ViroPharma, Inc. (NasdaqGS: VPHM - News) made a bold move earlier in July to acquire Lev Pharmaceuticals and with it, Cinryze, a potential $250 million product for hereditary angioedema (HAE). HAE is an ultra-rare genetic disorder and a highly attractive market given the significant unmet medical need.
Thus, we are positive on the deal, but acknowledge that significant questions remain. Nevertheless, the move works to greatly diversify the product portfolio and ease investor concern that a generic Vancocin would be devastating to the financial results.
On the contrary, we think both Cinryze (under regulatory review) and antiviral maribavir (in phase III) could be on the market by 2010 and generating positive income. Couple this with an estimated $300 million in cash still to be on hand after the Lev deal closes, and still at least another year of exclusive Vancocin sales, and the company's fundamental position is rock solid. We are maintaining our Buy rating.
At this level ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Second quarter results handily beat our expectations. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $233.3 million yields a price to sales ratio of only 3.5x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.90. The price to earnings ratio is only 13.1x.
Our model will likely undergo significant revisions once the Lev deal closes in the fourth quarter, but as of now we see $1.32 per share in EPS in 2012 without Lev. Our initial projections show that Cinryze could add as much as a dollar of EPS to that figure by 2012. As such, we have moved our price target to $16 per share.
&
ViroPharma "market outperform," target price raised
07/31/08 - JMP Securities
NEW YORK, July 31 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "market outperform" rating on ViroPharma Incorporated (VPHM). The target price has been raised from $12 to $18.
our old 13$ price target was hit today >:D
VPHM: Short Interest DN 15.9% to 10.2M at the End of Jul 2008
Tuesday , August 12, 2008 06:00ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 15.9% to 10,218,882 shares as reported at month-end July, 2008. Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,036,695, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
Nice work La-onda,
We got totally faked out of VPHM when that news hit of their takeover of Lev. Once the market digested the true impact of the transaction then the price back on to original course.
Applaud for you for being able to profit on the position through that period.
good news for VPHM:
Positive Study Drives Dyax Higher
08/18/08 - 02:44 PM EDT
DyaxDYAX shares shot higher Monday after the company announced positive late-stage trial results for its Hereditary Angiodema (HAE) drug DX-88, and will now complete its filing for FDA approval.
Dyax shares were up more than 10% to $4.78 in recent trading.
The company said that a phase III trial, dubbed Edema 4, successfully met its primary and secondary endpoints, replicating results from an earlier trial. Dyax also said the drug was well tolerated with no drug-related serious adverse events reported.
HAE causes periodic, acute episodes of painful swelling in a patient's extremities, gastrointestinal tract and, most dangerously, the airway passages. It's estimated that about 30% of HAE patients die due to suffocation caused when their airway swells shut.
The disease affects roughly 10,000 patients in North America, according to Dyax.
Cowen analyst Phil Nadeau, who has an outperform rating for the stock, said in a note to investors that his model projects $130 million in 2012 sales from DX-88 (Dyax posted revenue in its most recent quarter of $3.8 million, along with a loss of nearly $25 million)
With its first marketed drug, Dyax will enter a competitive market -- one that has seen a spate of regulatory delays -- for a rare disease that affects only 10,000 people in North America.
But Dyax's offering has its advantages.
DX-88 can be given to patients with a simple injection under the skin, instead of intravenously, which may make it more convenient and stronger competitor when launched.
Dyax is expected to file the last module of its application for DX-88 for FDA approval early in the fourth quarter based on the phase III study results announced on Monday. This means the company will likely have the product in market around mid-year 2009, writes Needham analyst Mark Monane, who has a buy rating and an $8 price target for the stock.
The company is in an exclusive negotiation period with Dompe regarding European rights to the DX-88 and has teamed up with CubistCBST for North American rights to the drug in another indication.
Other HAE drug developers have won premium takeout prices in recent months.
In July, ShireSHPGY announced that it was buying Jerini and its lead product HAE drug Firazyr in a deal worth $521 million. However, Wall Street widely expects U.S. approval will require another clinical trial, giving Dyax a buffer (pending approval) before this competitor enters the market. ViroPharmaVPHM also announced in July that it would spend at least $443 million to buy Lev Pharmaceuticals, which is expecting to hear from the FDA on Cinryze, its intravenous HAE treatment seeking approval to treat and prevent attacks, on or before Oct. 14.
If approved, Cinryze could still compete with Behring's Berinert P, a prospective treatment seeking approval for acute HAE attacks -- not a prophylactic, or preventive treatment for the disease.
The FDA was expected to make its decision on Berinert P on or before Sept. 6, but the company confirmed with Wall Street analysts on Friday that it has been delayed (60-90 days), based on further "data slicing requirements" according to Susquehanna analyst Jason Kolbert.
Berinert P, like Cinryze, is given intravenously, not subcutaneously like DX-88 and Firazyr.
"From our conversations with HAE patients, we know that they prefer subcutaneous therapy," says Kolbert who has concerns regarding the market size estimates represented by consensus. Kolbert believes the bigger market opportunity for DX-88 is not in HAE, but in areas such as drug-induced edema and prevention of blood loss in surgery.
Dyax recently signed an agreement with Cubist for North American rights to DX-88 in blood loss prevention in heart surgery.
why not reentering VPHM Aussie, chart looks very strong imho ?! >:D
VPHM: Short Interest DN 15.0% to 8.7M in Mid Aug 2008
Tuesday , August 26, 2008 16:23ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 15.0% to 8,684,007 shares as reported in mid-August, 2008.
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,450,295, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
ViroPharma (VPHM) NewsBite - VPHM Hits 52-Week High
Friday , August 29, 2008 03:19ET
Aug 29, 2008 (Fresh Brewed Media via COMTEX) -- ViroPharma (NasdaqNM: VPHM) hit a new 52-Week high of $14.98 so far today. Currently the stock is down $0.12 (-0.81%) to $14.74 on 316,845 shares traded. Today's high is up $7.63 from a 52-Week Low of $7.11. ViroPharma stock has been showing support around $14.50 and resistance in the $15.10 range. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and S&P does not currently have a STARS rating for VPHM. If you are looking for a hedged play on VPHM the stock seems like it could be a candidate for a November out-of-the-money bear-call credit spread above the 17.50 range.
>:D >:D >:D
8) Oliver
ViroPharma and Lev Receive Hart-Scott-Rodino Clearance from the Federal Trade Commission
Wednesday, September 03, 2008 09:16ET
EXTON, Pa., Sep 03, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) and Lev Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OTCBB: LEVP) today announced that the waiting period required under the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) Antitrust Improvements Act has expired in connection with ViroPharma's proposed acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals.
Completion of the transaction, expected by the end of 2008, is subject to satisfaction of other customary closing conditions, including approval of the stockholders of Lev.
JMP INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS:
· PDUFA date for Berinert pushed back; reiterate Market Outperform rating on ViroPharma.
On Friday, ViroPharma management confirmed that the FDA has extended the PDUFA date for a
decision regarding the potential approval of CSL Behring's Berinert for the treatment of acute
hereditary angioedema (HAE) attacks for 90 days. The new PDUFA date is December 6, 2008.
As such, we now believe that Cinryze, Lev Pharmaceutical's product candidate for the prophylaxis of HAE, will likely be the first product approved for the treatment of this disease in the US. The PDUFA date for Cinryze remains October 14, 2008, and we believe that the product will receive approval on or around that date given the positive outcome of the advisory committee meeting, which took place last May. Recall that in late July, ViroPharma announced plans to acquire Lev Pharmaceuticals. We expect the deal to close in 4Q. In our view, while the delay increases the likelihood of the ultimate approval of Berinert, we continue to lean toward the opinion that the product will not be approved in December.
Reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $18 price target. Our price target is derived by an
EPS valuation methodology and a sum-of-the-parts analysis.
&
Cowen:
Quick Take: IMS Reports July Sales For Vancocin
IMS reported Vancocin sales of $20M for the month of July, modestly down from
$20.6M-$20.8M in May and June. Assuming flat inventories and flat sales for the
remainder of the quarter, IMS sales are tracking towards $65M for 3Q08. Taking into
account that IMS typically over-estimates reported Vancocin sales, reported net
sales are tracking in the range of$58M to $64M, above our $57M estimate. However,
3Q is a seasonally weaker quarter relative to 2Q; therefore, we will wait for August
IMS sales data before making any changes to our estimates.
VPHM: Jumps +3.36%; Vol +62%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , September 16, 2008 16:22ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $13.40 $13.85 +3.36%
VOLUME 877,566 1,423,550 +62.22%
#TRADES 5,191 7,880 +51.80%
DAY-HI $13.77 $14.08 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $12.50 $12.50 N/A
;)
sounds good for VPHM
LEVP: Susquehanna Ups to Positive from Neutral; Analyst Notes
Friday , September 19, 2008 09:38ET
Issuer: Lev Pharmaceuticals, Inc (OTCBB: LEVP)
Analyst Firm: Susquehanna
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Positive (from Neutral)
Analyst Comments: The firm believes the acquisition by ViroPharma will go through.
from zacks.com:
.......
Sounds like something investors should definitely look into. What's the other idea you've got in mid-cap biotech?
It's a name we've talked about in the past, Mark: ViroPharma (VPHM). This is one of our favorite names right now for several reasons. Firstly, management is among the best in the business. They've done a great job in building up ViroPharma through acquiring and in-licensing products over the past few years.
The leading product is Vancocin, a powerful antibiotic used to treat a life-threatening disease resulting from the infection of C. difficile. The story with Vancocin is that the drug was previously used only as a "last resort" for C. difficile infection (CDI), but recent clinical data, at a competitor nonetheless, shows that Vancocin is superior to the first-line therapy, call metronidazole, for severely infected patients.
So now management is out there spreading the world that Vancocin should be used in a greater percentage of patients other than just last resort cases. And they're gaining traction because the IDSA (Infectious Disease Society of America) and SHEA (Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America), two key scientific member organizations for infectious disease, are drafting guidelines that agree. So Vancocin continues to drive strong cash flow generation at ViroPharma.
And ViroPharma is profitable, if I remember correctly, right?
Correct. The second quarter 2008 was the 14th in a row of positive earnings. That's an impressive feet for a mid-cap biotechnology company. But what all that strong cash flow generation has allowed ViroPharma management to do is build an impressive late-stage pipeline around Vancocin.
There are two candidates in late-stage development, maribavir for protection against cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection during stem cell and solid organ transplant, and Cinryze for hereditary angioedema (HAE). Maribavir is currently in two phase III trials with data expected in 2009. The phase II data on the drug has been very impressive, with patients showing 100% protection against CMV infection and a significant decline in transplant rejection, or something called graft vs. host disease (GvHD).
We think maribavir demonstrates a significant improvement over the current standard of care, a drug called ganciclovir made by Roche. Not only is it more efficacious, but the tolerability and safety profile is also superior. It could be a real breakthrough for patients undergoing stem cell transplant (SCT) or solid organ transplant (SOT). It's also what's known as an "orphan" indication, meaning ViroPharma will have strong pricing power and an exclusive market for at least seven years in the U.S. It's a $500 million potential opportunity.
The second drug, Cinryze, also an "orphan" indication drug, is under regulatory review for HAE. HAE is a nasty inflammatory disease that results in significant swelling around the face, abdomen, hands and feet. The attacks, which could occur as often as 2-3 times per week, usually come without warning, and can be fatal if they occur inside the mouth or trachea. There's a significant unmet medical need for a drug that can treat, or even prevent, these attacks. It's another $500 million opportunity, in our view.
ViroPharma acquired the drug through the acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals earlier this year. The U.S. FDA is schedule to rule on the use of Cinryze as prophylactic (prevention) for HAE in October 2008. Given that an advisory panel previously recommended approval of the drug by a unanimous 21-0 margin in May 2008, we feel very good about the approval coming in October.
So by 2010 we think ViroPharma can have both maribavir and Cinryze, two orphan drugs each with $500 million potential, on the market. They've got an estimated $300 million in cash still even after the Lev Pharmaceuticals deal, and as of now, Vancocin remains patent protected.
Now that's a potential risk with ViroPharma, correct? There is a patent challenge to Vancocin?
Yes, that's the risk right now. But that risk has also created an opportunity to pick up ViroPharma on the cheap. A generic pharmaceutical company is looking to bring a bio-equivalent oral vancomycin to the market as soon as next year. However, ViroPharma has filed what's known as a citizen's petition, questioning the methods on which the generic company will look to prove bio-equivalence. It's a strategy that has paid off well, having delayed the generic alternative since 2006 while the FDA's Office of Generic Drug (OGD) looks into the issue.
It's inevitable that a generic oral vancomycin will eventually come to market. Our financial model assumes it happens in 2010. You should know, that will cause a hit to earnings when it happens. But we think that investors should focus more on maribavir and Cinryze than when a generic Vancocin may come to market. The company should be able to maintain its strong history of profitability assuming both maribavir and Cinryze pan out. Given what we've seen so far, we like their chances.
Jason Napodano, CFA is a senior analyst covering the pharmaceutical and biotech industries for Zacks Equity Research.
VPHM: Short Interest UP 1.8% to 9.1M in Mid Sep 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008 16:22ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 1.8% to 9,072,481 shares as reported in mid-September, 2008.
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,349,940, it would require approximately 7 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
holding well during todays massacre >:D
good news:
Cinryze Approved: A Significant Catalyst for Viropharma, Lev Pharmaceuticals
by: Dan Weiss October 12, 2008
On late Friday, it was announced that Lev Pharmaceuticals' (LEVP.OB) prophylactic treatment for the rare but life-threatening disorder known as hereditary angioedema- HAE was approved by the FDA.
This is the first treatment to be approved in the United States for HAE and will likely have an almost immediate impact on the bottom line and cash flows for Viropharma (VPHM), who is expected to close on its deal to acquire Lev Pharmaceuticals on October 23, 2008 (2 business days following Lev's shareholder vote).
The terms of the deal are that Viropharma will pay Lev Pharmaceutical shareholders $2.25 per share in cash plus approximately (0.50/share) in Viropharma shares for a total of $2.75/share.
In addition, Lev shareholders have the potential for up to $1.00 per share if additional milestone are met which are as follows: 1) $0.50 per share consideration under 2 potential scenarios: a) Cinryze is approved for acute treatment of HAE and orphan exclusivity is granted or b) orphan exclusivity for the acute treatment of HAE has not become effective for anyone for two years from the date of closing and date of FDA approval for prophylaxis, whichever is later; and 2) an additional $0.50 per share consideration when Cinryze reaches $600 million in cumulative net sales within 10 years of closing.
So what does the approval of Cinryze mean if I am a shareholder of Lev Pharmaceuticals?
Shareholders of Lev, assuming shareholder approval at the special meeting on October 21, will receive a $2.25 cash payment + approximately $0.50 per share in Viropharma stock for each share of stock that they own. They then will receive CVR's which would entitle them to up to $1.00 per share in additional payments when/if the above listed additional milestones are met. At a share price of $2.38 at Friday's close, the upfront payments would generate a greater than 15% return for shareholders from current levels with the possibility for up to 36% in additional returns if the CVR's are met.
Estimates for Cinryze sales and the affect on Viropharma's EPS
There is a high pent-up demand for Cinryze among patients who suffer from hereditary angioedema. Cinryze should be able to generate some revenue (although it will not be huge) in the fourth quarter of 2008 with revenues building to $150-200 million in 2009, $250 million in 2010 and potentially $300 million in 2011. These figures assume no acute approval for Cinryze (only prophylactic approval which was just granted). If acute approval is granted, these numbers could increase to upwards of $400-450 million in 2011. Based on these figures Cinryze could add approximately $0.50-0.60/share in earnings in 2009 and about $1.00/share in earnings to Viropharma in 2010. After the closing of this deal, Viropharma will still have approximately $270 million in cash which will equal $3.43 to $3.57 per share (depending on the total share count after the deal is closed which will range from 75.6-78.7 million shares) and not including any cash build in the most recent quarter from Vancocin. Viropharma is trading at an extremely compelling valuation of just about 6x enterprise value(after merger close)/earnings just from Cinryze in 2010 with Vancocin still likely to also contribute to the bottom line and other potential revenue streams in the same period. I continue to be a strong buyer of the stock and will continue to add to positions with a intermediate term goal of $20 per share.
Rams, please provide some details!
VPHM: Stanford Group Ups to Buy from Hold; Sets Tgt @ $13; Analyst Notes
Monday , October 13, 2008 08:09ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Stanford Group
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Buy (from Hold)
Target Price: $13.00
Analyst Comments: Stanford upgraded shares on valuation as they view the recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Target $13.
&
VPHM: Rodman/Renshaw Ups to Outperform from Market Perform; Sets Tgt @ $18; Analyst Notes
Monday , October 13, 2008 08:37ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Rodman & Renshaw
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Outperform (from Market Perform)
target Price: $18.00
Analyst Comments: Rodman and Renshaw upgraded VPHM following the FDA's approval of Cinryze for the treatment of hereditary angioedema Target $18.
The street.com:
For ViroPharma, Acquisition Plan Is Paying Off
Elizabeth Trotta
10/14/08 - 05:37 PM EDT
Thanks to the Food and Drug Administration's decision to approve the first U.S. treatment for hereditary angiodema, ViroPharma (VPHM Quote - Cramer on VPHM - Stock Picks) has become the early leader in the race to sell a product for the rare genetic disorder to the domestic market.
That's because a company ViroPharma is planning to acquire -- Lev Pharmaceuticals -- received news Friday that U.S. regulators have cleared Cinryze to prevent painful attacks that occur in patients with the disease, which is also known as HAE.
Earlier this year, ViroPharma said it would spend at least $443 million to buy Lev, whose lead product is Cinryze. HAE treatments have been marketed in Europe for more than 30 years, but the U.S. has remained an untapped commercial opportunity.
HAE is caused by a defect in the gene C1 INH. The condition causes periodic acute episodes of painful swelling in a patient's extremities, gastrointestinal tract and, most dangerously, the air passages, which can lead to death by suffocation.
Treatments for rare diseases, such as HAE, can lead to big profits for their makers because they often carry high price tags. Cinryze could be launched at a price of $3,500 a dose, according to Rodman and Renshaw's Michael King and Stanford Research's Berin Amin.
An HAE drug approved in the preventive setting means substantially more revenue per patient -- $250,000 to $350,000 a year -- compared with an acute-treatment drug, which may cost about $25,000 a year per patient, said Susequehanna's Jason Kolbert earlier this year.
Cinryze's revenue potential will depend heavily on how many eligible patients actually exist in the U.S., and estimates regarding the number of cases of HAE vary. England's Shire (SHPGY Quote - Cramer on SHPGY - Stock Picks), which gained access to a competing HAE treatment by way of the acquisition Germany's Jerini this year, believes North America has only 7,000 patients. Lev, meanwhile, suspects the U.S. alone has 10,000 cases.
Another disparity surrounds revenue estimates. Rodman and Renshaw's King, who upgraded ViroPharma to outperform from market perform on Monday, estimates that Cinryze will bring in $125 million in U.S. sales in 2009. Stanford's Amin, who has a buy rating on ViroPharma, expects the drug to deliver $46 million in sales next year.
Longer term, Susquehanna's Kolbert, who has a neutral rating for the stock, projects that Cinryze will generate roughly $127 million in peak annual sales. King is projecting that sales could reach $420 million in 2015.
Aside from the difficulty in accurately assessing the HAE population, there is the matter of competition. Lev and ViroPharma are the first in the U.S. market with an HAE drug, but they might not be alone for long. Dyax(DYAX Quote - Cramer on DYAX - Stock Picks) and CSL Behring, part of Australia's CSL Ltd., could both have approved HAE drugs in the U.S. within the next year.
Because Cinryze has "orphan drug" status, ViroPharma is likely to get seven years of marketing exclusivity following the U.S. approval. Lev's original regulatory application sought clearance for both preventing HAE attacks and for treating them as they occur, but after holding talks with the FDA the company opted to pursue only the former indication. However, Lev plans to seek the additional use "as soon as possible" once it has further data from ongoing studies.
CSL Behring's drug, Berinert, is under review for acute attacks. The FDA was set to make a decision on Berinert in September, but the ruling was delayed until December. If Berinert is approved before Cinryze to treat the actual onset of HAE, then it could be granted the same seven-year exclusivity.
Even so, Cinryze and Berinert are both C1 inhibitors that are administered intravenously and are essentially the same, according to Kolbert. As a result, if both receive the nod from the FDA, some doctors may decide to use them interchangeably for preventing and treating HAE, regardless of their specified indications.
Meanwhile, Dyax and Shire are developing HAE drugs that can be given to patients with a simple injection under the skin, instead of intravenously, which may make them more convenient for patients and stronger competitors once they are available.
Dyax is expected to file for approval of DX-88 to treat HAE symptoms by the end of the year, meaning a decision could come in mid-2009. While the HAE market is the most important to Lev and now ViroPharma, analysts say the real profit potential for Dyax's DX-88 is in further indications, such as treating other angiodemas.
"There is also potential for DX-88 to address reperfusion injuries (post-stroke), post-operative swelling (brain, other organs), and even chemotherapeutic-induced edema," writes Susquehanna's Kolbert. "These opportunities are much more significant than the HAE marketplace, which is the first hurdle for DX-88 to pass."
Zacks.com
ViroPharma Makes the Right Moves
Tuesday October 14, 2:55 pm ET
By Jason Napodano, CFA
Cinryze should launch later this year after ViroPharma (NasdaqGS: VPHM - News) completes the acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals and finalizes patient support and reimbursement programs. On October 10, 2008, the U.S. FDA approved Cinryze, a C1 inhibitor, for routine prophylaxis against angioedema attacks in adolescent and adult patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE). The label is consistent with our expectations, and allows for dosing as frequent as every 3 or 4 days. We expect rapid uptake from the women and adolescent market given the lack of treatment options previously available to these groups.
Additionally, there are 150+ participants still taking Cinryze from the phase III open-label follow-up programs that will be transitioned to the commercialized product once available. ViroPharma management believes that the product has peak sales of $250 to $300 million in the prophylaxis setting, with gross margins in the 65-70% range.
The move to acquire Lev works to greatly diversify the product portfolio and ease investor concern of generic Vancocin. Phase III candidate, maribavir, is progressing nicely, and could be on the market in 2010. Couple these two new drugs, Cinryze and maribavir, with an estimated $300 million in cash, solid Vancocin sales, and the companies fundamental position is rock solid. We are maintaining our Buy rating with a price target of $16.
ViroPharma to Release 2008 Third Quarter Financial Results on October 29, 2008
Tuesday , October 14, 2008 13:30ET
EXTON, Pa., Oct. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated's (Nasdaq: VPHM) third quarter financial results for 2008 are expected to be released on Wednesday, October 29, 2008 before the open of the U.S. financial markets.
The company will host a conference call and live audio webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day. During the conference call, ViroPharma management will discuss the third quarter financial results for 2008 and other business.
The press release and the live webcast of the conference call will be accessible via ViroPharma's corporate website at http://www.viropharma.com. An audio archive will be available at the same address until November 15, 2008. To participate in the conference call, please dial 877-366-0713 (domestic) and 302-607-2000 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.
ViroPharma Incorporated Completes Acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals
Tuesday , October 21, 2008 15:03ET
EXTON, Pa., Oct. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced it has completed its acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals (OTC Bulletin Board: LEVP) following the approval earlier today of the transaction by Lev stockholders. Lev stockholders will receive $2.25 in cash, 0.042146 shares of ViroPharma common stock and one non- transferable contingent value right which entitles the holder to receive up to two contingent payments of $0.50 each in cash, payable upon the achievement of certain regulatory and commercial milestones, for each share of Lev common stock that they own. The total number of ViroPharma shares to be issued as part of the merger consideration is 7,286,286.
With the acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals, ViroPharma takes a significant step in broadening its portfolio of treatments for significant unmet medical needs, by acquiring Cinryze C1 esterase inhibitor (human), which recently received marketing approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for routine prophylaxis against angioedema attacks in adolescent and adult patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE).
Hereditary angioedema, or C1 esterase inhibitor (C1-INH) deficiency, is a dangerous and potentially deadly inflammatory disease affecting up to 10,000 patients in the United States, caused by a genetic deficiency in an essential protein called C1 esterase inhibitor. Clinical studies have shown that prophylactic use of Cinryze, which increases the levels of C1 esterase inhibitor in the bloodstream, can significantly reduce the severity, duration and frequency of HAE attacks.
Separately, ViroPharma announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted seven years of marketing exclusivity to Cinryze C1 inhibitor (human) for routine prophylaxis of hereditary angioedema (HAE) pursuant to the Orphan Drug Act. Lev originally received orphan drug designation for Cinryze by the Office of Orphan Products Development on July 16, 2004.
"We are extremely excited to receive the grant of seven years of market exclusivity for Cinryze in prophylaxis against HAE, and to complete this acquisition; we now turn our attention to finalizing a robust patient access program and launching Cinryze into the HAE prophylaxis market," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "Cinryze is not only a life-saving therapy treating a very dangerous disease, but also a product capable of significantly improving the everyday lives of patients. We are committed to the launch, and to ensuring that patients around the country suffering from this debilitating disease have access to the drug."
"We are pleased that we have completed this acquisition by ViroPharma and are confident in their commitment to ensuring that all patients who need access to Cinryze will have access to this life-saving therapy," commented Judson Cooper, Lev's former chairman of the board. "This transaction provides our stockholders with attractive financial terms, through the upfront payment and the opportunity to continue to share in the success of the drug through the ownership of ViroPharma shares and the contingent value rights."
Share exchange information and a letter of transmittal will be emailed to Lev stockholders shortly. If you have any questions, please contact ViroPharma's exchange agent, StockTrans, at (800) 733-1121.
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VIROPHARMA INC SAYS FDA GRANTS 7 YEARS MARKETING EXCLUSIVITY OF CINRYZE
Tuesday , October 21, 2008 15:11ET
NEW YORK, Oct 22, 2008 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) -- VIROPHARMA INC SAYS FDA GRANTS 7 YEARS MARKETING EXCLUSIVITY OF CINRYZE Chuck Mikolajczak cm
fyi from Zacks:
ViroPharma will report next Wednesday, Oct 29. Ahead of the report, 3 of the 9 covering brokerage analysts have raised their third-quarter forecasts. The revisions, however, were not large enough to move the consensus earnings estimate, which continues to sit at 23 cents per share.
As part of its earnings release, VPHM could provide an update on Cinryze, which treats angioedema attacks (swelling underneath the skin). The company received FDA approval 2 weeks ago and is expected to launch the drug this quarter. Cinryze could achieve sales of $250 million to $300 million, which would have a significant impact on overall revenues and earnings.
VPHM: Short Interest DN 12.4% to 8.2M in Mid Oct 2008
Friday , October 24, 2008 16:22ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) DECREASED 12.4% to 8,164,877 shares as reported in mid-October, 2008.
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,412,660, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
ViroPharma: Rodman & Renshaw previews 3Q08 results; looking for details on Cinryze launch (10.06 )
Rodman & Renshaw note VPHM will report 3Q08 financial results on Wed, Oct 29. Firm expects EPS to be in line with their est of $0.24, which is just above the Street consensus of $0.23. Firm believes the most important near term focus for investors is the recently completed acquisition of Lev Pharmaceuticals (LEVP) and the anticipated launch of Cinryze in 4Q08. Firm currently expects that Cinryze will be launched in 4Q08 with patients currently receiving Cinryze in an open label trial being transferred onto commercial product. Following this, in early 2009, they anticipate that the newly assembled Cinryze sales force will begin the full roll out of Cinryze. Firm believes key to a successful launch will be much of the work that Lev Pharmaceuticals completed prior to approval working to establish relationships with payors and specialty pharmacies as well making efforts to educate physicians and patients. Firm expects ViroPharma to provide further details on the launch plans for Cinryze during the 3Q08 conference call.
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VPHM: Jumps +6.44%; Vol +62%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , October 28, 2008 16:23ET
During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.
sym: VPHM @13:30 ET @CLOSE % CHANGE
---------- ----------- ----------- ------------
PRICE $10.40 $11.07 +6.44%
VOLUME 701,225 1,134,549 +61.80%
#TRADES 4,322 7,153 +65.50%
DAY-HI $10.84 $11.09 LATE-HI
DAY-LO $10.09 $10.09 N/A
ViroPharma Too Good to Ignore
Thursday , October 30, 2008 07:10ET
Oct 30, 2008 (Zacks Investment Research via COMTEX) -- ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) posted very strong financial results for the third quarter. Vancocin sales blew away expectations, coming in at $65.9 million, up 29%. Vancocin continues to benefit from impending treatment guideline changes and ViroPharma's new specialty salesforce. The acquisition and approval of Cinryze greatly strengthens the company's future prospects. We are excited to hear about the commercialization plans in early November. We expect management to be in position to launch the product before the end of the year. Besides strong Vancocin sales and the Cinryze approval, both phase III trials on maribavir are progressing on plan. ViroPharma's business fundamentals are strong. Sales and earnings are outpacing expectations and the company should exit the year with over $300 million in cash on hand. At this level, ViroPharma stock is too attractive to ignore. Our 2008 revenue forecast of $243.5 million yields a price to sales ratio of 3.2x. This is significantly below the biotechnology peer-group average of around 6.5x. We forecast 2008 EPS at $0.96. The price to earnings ratio is only 11.5x. As such, we rate the stock a Buy and are maintaining our price target at $16 per share.
ViroPharma shares fall on rival's study data
Tuesday November 11, 4:24 pm ET
ViroPharma shares drop on positive infection drug study results from Optimer Pharmaceuticals
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of ViroPharma Inc. dove Tuesday after likely rival Optimer Pharmaceuticals Inc. said patients taking its developing gastrointestinal infection drug had a higher cure rate and were less likely to relapse.
Exton, Pa.-based ViroPharma saw shares fall $1.64, or 13 percent, to $10.93 in afternoon trading. The stock has traded between $7.78 and $15.16 over the past 52 weeks.
Meanwhile, shares of San Diego-based Optimer surged $4, or 87 percent, to $8.60 after having traded between $3.30 and $9.70 over the past 52 weeks.
In a statement Monday, Optimer said 92.1 percent of patients treated with OPT-80 in a late-stage study were cured, compared with 89.8 percent taking ViroPharma Vancocin, which is already on the market. Patients on OPT-80 also relapsed less than their counterparts on Vancocin.
"If (Optimer's) data is borne out by further study, we would welcome this as good news for patients," said ViroPharma President and Chief Executive Vincent Milano, noting that a significant reduction in relapse rate would be the primary area of potential improvement.
The gastrointestinal infection is called CDI, or clostridium difficile infection, and it affects the colon. It is most commonly obtained by patients in hospitals following treatment with antibiotics.
Vancocin sales rose 29 percent to $65.9 million during ViroPharma's third quarter and the company expects sales to reach between $235 million to $245 million in 2008. It is ViroPharma's only drug on the market, though the company plans next month to begin marketing the already-approved drug Cinryze, which treats a hereditary protein deficiency that can lead to dangerous swelling.
ViroPharma acquired Cinryze with its purchase of Lev Pharmaceuticals, which closed last month.
Despite the boost, Optimer's drug is still undergoing an additional late-stage study and is years away from reaching the market.
Cowen and Co. analyst Rachel McMinn reaffirmed a "Neutral" rating on ViroPharma, saying the possibility for generic versions of the drug have greater relevance than OPT-80.
"Additionally, the infectious disease community is notoriously slow to adopt novel therapies, and we expect OPT-80 to gain share slowly in the first few years of launch," she said.
Meanwhile, Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Stephen Willey reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating on ViroPharma, also saying the impact of generic drugs is more of a risk to Vancocin. He already expects generic competitors for Vancocin before 2010, meanwhile, OPT-80 likely wouldn't gain approval and hit the market until mid-to-late 2010, he added.
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VPHM: CSFB Starts @ Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $15; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , November 11, 2008 10:43ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Credit Suisse First Boston Corp.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Outperform
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $15.00
Analyst Comments: Credit Suisse views VPHM as a diversification story with two new produce coming to market with the ability to drive value above Vancocin, which has been an overhang.
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VPHM: Short Interest UP 7.3% to 8.8M at the End of Oct 2008
Tuesday , November 11, 2008 16:22ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) INCREASED 7.3% to 8,757,350 shares as reported at month-end October, 2008.
Based on VPHM's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,359,310, it would require approximately 7 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
ViroPharma submits supplemental biologics license application for Cinryze to treat acute attacks of hereditary Angioedema (VPHM):
Co announces that it submitted a supplemental Biologics License Application to the FDA for Cinryze C1 Inhibitor as a treatment for acute attacks of hereditary angioedema. The sBLA is based on a re-analysis and resubmission of data from a pivotal Phase 3 acute treatment study of Cinryze and interim data from an ongoing open label acute study of the drug.
The administration of Cinryze was effective in treating acute HAE attacks in these studies. The safety profile was similar to that observed with the use of Cinryze for routine prophylaxis of angioedema attacks in patients with HAE, the currently approved claim.
Overall, more than 9,000 doses of Cinryze have been administered to over 180 patients in all controlled and open label clinical studies of Cinryze for both acute treatment and routine prophylaxis against angioedema attacks. In the analysis of 447 acute attacks in 82 patients, open label Cinryze administration provided substantial relief of the defining symptom in 93.4% of the attacks within four hours of injection, with a median time to onset of relief of 30 minutes. There was no observed loss of effectiveness over multiple administrations of Cinryze for subsequent HAE attacks.
ViroPharma: FDA draft guidance for generic Vancocin a near term negative- Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer says the FDA has issued draft guidance for generic Vancocin, effectively supporting in-vitro bioequivalence studies with no additional clinical trials, suggesting generic approval may be likely near term. The firm says resolution of the Vancocin overhang is a near-term negative, but it will shift focus to the Cinryze launch and upcoming Maribavir data. Firm lowers their 2009 EPS based on anticipated generic Vancocin approval in early 2009, to $0.62 vs $1.16 (consensus is $0.63).
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ViroPharma Provides Update on Vancocin(R)
Monday December 15, 1:53 pm ET
EXTON, Pa., Dec. 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today provided the following update regarding Vancocin® (vancomycin hydrochloride capsules).
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has posted draft guidance for establishing bioequivalence (BE) to Vancocin. The new draft guidance is open for public comment, and if finalized as proposed would add new requirements for generic applicants beyond the in vitro dissolution testing originally proposed in March 2006. Under the draft guidance, generic applicants will also have to show that their products contain substantially the same inactive ingredients in substantially the same quantities as Vancocin. For generic versions of Vancocin that are not Ql and Q2 the same as Vancocin with respect to inactive ingredients, FDA is recommending in vivo BE studies with clinical endpoints in patients with Clostridium difficile.
Importantly, FDA has also called for public process specific to Vancocin, announcing that there will be a 60 day public comment period to review and comment on these draft guidance. FDA has acknowledged the complexity of the issues involved, and specifically stated that they will carefully consider such comments before responding to ViroPharma's Citizen Petition and finalizing BE recommendation for Vancocin.
Nowhere in the draft guidance does it indicate that FDA has correlated the described in vitro tests to an in vivo outcome, as required by FDA's regulation. A detailed description of this topic can be found at the following link (please cut and paste into your browser):
http://www.regulations.gov/fdmspublic/component/main?main=DocumentDetail&o=090000648069607c
"After several years, FDA has agreed with ViroPharma on the need for public process in the development of BE methods for Vancocin," commented Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's president and chief executive officer. "We will actively participate in this process to appropriately address this important public health issue with the ultimate goal of ensuring the safety of patients. For example, we will work to ensure that the process considers the potential severity of Clostridium difficile infections and its effect on a patient's GI tract, and that in vitro lab-based tests are correlated with in vivo outcomes to avoid any potential danger to patients who suffer from this life-threatening disease."
C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea. Without proper treatment, the associated complications of the disease can be deadly. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and compromised immunity are conditions associated with increased risk of disease. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there are an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 CA-CDAD and HA-CDAD cases annually based on 2004 data.
ViroPharma: New FDA guidelines are in line with our expectations, allowing for potential generic Vancocin approval without clinical trials - Rodman & Renshaw (11.31 )
Rodman and Renshaw notes that VPHM announced that the FDA has issued draft guidelines that provide a path to approval of a generic Vancocin without the need for clinical trials. Although the guidelines have come earlier than they had anticipated, their expectations had been that the FDA would try to find a way to approve generic versions of Vancocin primarily on the basis of in vitro bioequivalence data. On posting the new guidance to their website, the agency called for public comments to the documents over a 60 day period beginning today. They fully expect VPHM to respond to the FDA's guidance during this timeframe. Following the completion of the 60-day window, they expect the FDA to further review the guidelines in light of any comments submitted and therefore, in their view, there will be a further period of time before a generic is potentially approved. Although the increased likelihood of approval of a generic Vancocin in 2009 has resulted in headline pressure to VPHM shares, clarity as to a final resolution of this overhang will allow investors attention to become fully focused on Cinryze and maribavir, which we they as the key drivers to the stock in 2009.
Love (of Biotech) Is the Drug
By JOHN JANNARONE
Cash-rich pharmaceuticals firms are on the hunt for acquisitions. But don't expect their war chests to bail out the weakest biotechnology firms.
Even though cash-strapped biotech companies offer potential acquirers the chance to snap up promising new drugs on the cheap, big pharma is likely to look elsewhere.
[Biotech heard on the street] Bloomberg News/Landov
Bristol-Myers Squibb's research institute in Hopewell, N.J.
The likes of Pfizer and Bristol-Myers Squibb already pour billions of dollars into annual research budgets. Rather than more early-stage opportunities, they need drugs with real near-term revenue potential to fill the gap as patents on existing blockbusters expire.
Both of those companies' top-selling drugs -- Pfizer's Lipitor and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Plavix -- will see patents expire in 2011, leading to lower revenues.
That makes companies such as ViroPharma, with a $1 billion market capitalization, as possible targets for big pharmaceuticals makers. The firm already has two drugs on the market and another is in the final stage of clinical trials. ViroPharma had $182 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2008 and posted a profit of $69 million.
A potential acquirer also might have to pay a healthy takeover premium. Viro-Pharma is no forced seller. With $250 million in debt and $613 million of cash, it can continue to operate without financial pressure.
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, a diabetes-drug developer valued at $1.5 billion, also could draw attention. It has two drugs now in production and generated revenue of $638 million in the first nine months of last year.
The company posted a loss of $211 million because of heavy research-and-development costs, and poor recent trials for a third drug hit the shares hard in 2008. But its $805 million in gross cash should be enough for a while.
Other firms are unlikely to be so lucky. Rigel Pharmaceuticals, for example, has a promising arthritis drug under development but is an unlikely fit for a large pharmaceuticals manufacturer. And the company's shares fell 68% last year partly because of concerns about its access to new funding.
The market hasn't punished pharmaceuticals firms that paid up for solid drugs. Eli Lilly's $6.5 billion acquisition of ImClone could cause Lilly to post a loss in the current fiscal year. But Lilly's shares fell 25% in 2008, similar to the performance of rivals.
Roche performed solidly despite its $45 billion unsolicited offer for the remaining 46% of Genentech it doesn't already own.
Doubts linger over the deal, including how easily Roche could finance it. But for smaller transactions, pharmaceutical companies have plenty of firepower. Pfizer has $9.7 billion in net cash. Bristol-Myers has about $1.2 billion and will receive another $1 billion for its stake in ImClone.
The cream of biotech firms, spared from the funding crisis, won't come cheap. But with revenue holes to fill, some pharmaceuticals giants might still be tempted to pay up.
Write to John Jannarone at
[email protected]
VPHM: Deutsche Bank Starts @ Hold; Sets Tgt @ $12; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , January 20, 2009 09:26ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm: Deutsche Bank
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Hold
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $12.00
Analyst Comments: Deutche Bank finds the stock fairly valued at current levels. Target $12.
sold VPHM with a big loss :'( :'(
ViroPharma - One-Trick Pony or One-Trick Thoroughbred?
We have been long-time bulls on ViroPharma, Inc. (NasdaqGS: VPHM -
News). Over the past year, ViroPharma's stock had been reacting well
to the uptick in Vancocin sales, and the Citizen's Petition strategy
to delay a generic alternative has worked beautifully to maintain an
exclusive market in 2007 and 2008.
Paramount to our investment thesis was that the continued strong sales
in Vancocin would allow for management to fully develop the next wave
of products, including HCV-796 and maribavir, as well as in-license
new candidates such as Cinryze. With HCV-796 and now maribavir gone,
and generic Vancocin most likely coming in mid-2009, too many
questions remain for us to recommend the shares.
It is our belief that ViroPharma will become a one-trick pony,
Cinryze, by the start of 2010. That's not necessarily a bad thing if
that pony turns out to be a thoroughbred. Some of the things that
could make Cinryze a thoroughbred include rapid uptake by the 200+
clinical trial patients and women and children actively seeking
treatment options.
Plus, Cinryze is the only viable treatment option for patients seeking
prophylactic therapy. Finally, approval for the acute indication in
June 2009 locks-up the entire C1-esterase inhibitor market and means
that Cinryze will most likely dominate the HAE landscape. That turns a
$250 million product into a $500 million product based on one FDA
regulatory decision.
But Cinryze will not carry the same sort of profitability that
Vancocin did. Vancocin had 95%+ gross margins and was being
effectively promoted by a very limited sales force. Sales totaled $232
million in 2008. Cinryze is a very different product. The product has
only a 65% gross margin and will require heavy promotion and safety
monitoring, along with the added costs of REMS and Cinryze Solution
registry.
Sales in 2009 will only be around $40 million. In fact, unless all the
pieces fall into place (DX-88 rejected, Cinryze approved for acute
use), it may not be until 2013 that Cinryze posts sales above $232
million. This means that ViroPharma's most profitable days are behind
them.
Management still holds $276 million in cash, but could owe future
potential milestones to Lev shareholders in the order of $175 million.
The first $87.5 million payment could be due in June 2009. The company
also has $250 million in convertible debt due in 2016. Given
management's need to maintain at least $200 million in cash reserves,
we do not expect another Lev-like acquisition anytime soon.
That leads us to the key investment question: Is ViroPharma a one-trick pony, or one-trick thoroughbred? At this time it is too early to tell, and we do not feel comfortable recommending the shares until visibility improves.
http://www.zacks.com/ZER/zer_get_pdf.php?r=Z427745&t=VPHM
just an update ;)
cheers
Oliver
Strong Quarter for ViroPharma
ViroPharma Inc. (NasdaqGS: VPHM - News) posted third-quarter earnings of 48 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17 cents and the year-ago figure by 20 cents. Increased product sales helped boost third quarter 2010 earnings.
Revenues
Quarterly revenue of $117.8 million was well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $106 million and 46% above the year-ago revenue of $80.6 million. Revenues were spurred by higher sales of Cinryze and Vancocin.
While Cinryze sales increased 69% to $49.1 million, Vancocin sales came in at $67.6 million, up 31%.
Sales of Cinryze increased during the quarter due to higher patient demand, while sales of Vancocin went up due to price increases.
Expenses
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses and research and development (R&D) expenses, taken together, increased during the quarter to $35.2 million from $31.2 million in the year-ago period.
Quarterly SG&A expenses increased 24.0% year over year as a result of a rise in compensation expense and marketing activities related to Cinryze, while quarterly R&D expenses declined 7.4% due to the discontinuation of the maribavir prophylactic program.
Outlook
For fiscal 2010, ViroPharma raised its Cinryze sales guidance to $170–$180 million from $165–$175 million.
Expenses, both R&D and SG&A taken together, are expected to range from $140–$145 million, up from the previous guidance range of $135–$145 million.
Our View
We currently have a Neutral recommendation on ViroPharma, which is supported by a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term Hold rating). We are pleased with the company's third quarter results. ViroPharma expects the European approval and launch of Cinryze to take place in the first half of 2011.
However, Vancocin, which is one of the primary revenue contributors at ViroPharma, is not protected by any patent. Vancocin generics are yet to hit the market with the FDA requiring generic companies to conduct a bioequivalence study to gain approval for their versions. We note that a proposed bioequivalence method for Vancocin is filed for approval with the FDA. If the method gets the regulatory body's nod, the time required for a generic manufacturer to get a copycat version of Vancocin approved will be reduced and multiple generics may enter the market, thereby leading to significant sales erosion of the drug.
Zacks Investment Research
>:D >:D new breeak out >:D >:D
8) new 52 weeks high! 8)